recent advancements to the u.s. navy’s coupled mesoscale...

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Recent Advancements to the U.S. Navy’s Coupled Mesoscale Modeling System

Recent Advancements to the U.S. Navy’s Coupled Mesoscale Modeling System

James D. DoyleNaval Research Laboratory

Monterey, CA

James D. DoyleNaval Research Laboratory

Monterey, CA

OutlineOutline•Overview of Systems•Coupled Modeling using COAMPS•Tropical Cyclone Prediction •Ensemble Kalman Filter and Adjoint•Parameterization Research•Next-Generation Dynamics

WAF/NWP Conference, May 2012WAF/NWP Conference, May 20121

SeaWIFS (NASA)

Rick Allard1

Clark AmeraultTim Campbell1

Sue Chen John Cook

Jim Cummings1

Saša Gaberšek

Qingfang JiangHao JinYi Jin

Chi-Sann LiouPaul May

Tracy HaackEric Hendricks

Rich Hodur2

Teddy HoltXiaodong Hong

Jason NachamkinAlex Reinecke

Jerome Schmidt William Thompson

Kevin VinerShouping WangNaval Research Lab, Monterey, CA

1NRL-SSC, 2SAIC, 3CSC

NAVDAS

NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System

NOGAPS, NAVGEM, NAAPS*Global Co erage & Ensembles

NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System

NOGAPS, NAVGEM, NAAPS*Global Co erage & Ensembles

U.S. Navy Models and ToolsTelescoping Strategy

U.S. Navy Models and ToolsTelescoping Strategy

NAVDAS*4DVAR/3DVAR *Observation Space *Global to Local

*Global Coverage & Ensembles *Meso- to Synoptic Scale *1-5d Guidance/ 10d Ensemble *Weather, Ice, SST, Aerosols

Satellite

UAV

COAMPS-OS®

*Nested Local Coverage

*Global Coverage & Ensembles *Meso- to Synoptic Scale *1-5d Guidance/ 10d Ensemble *Weather, Ice, SST, Aerosols

COAMPS® & COAMPS-TC*Nested Regional Coverage *Nonhydrostatic Scale *0-120h Guidance (Ensembles) *Weather, Ocean, and Aerosols


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Decision Aids

Radar

Nested Local Coverage *Tactical Scales *0-24h Guidance, on-demand *On-Scene, local data assimilation

COAMPS® and COAMPS-OS® are registered trademarks of Naval Research Laboratory.

NOWCAST*Rapid Environmental Assessment *Warfighter Time & Space Scales *0-6h Guidance, Rapid Update *Real-time, Automatic, Data Fusion

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COAMPS OverviewCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System

COAMPS OverviewCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System

•Data Assimilation: 3D-Var: NAVDAS (Atmosphere), NCODA (Ocean)EnKF and 4D-Var (underway), Adjoint obs. impact

•Atmosphere: Nonhydrostatic, NRL fluxes, LSM, NRL microphysics, NRL PBL, dust/aerosols, Fu-Liou radiation

O N C t l O M d l (NCOM) W (SWAN WWIII)

Air-Ocean Two-Way Coupling Tropical Cyclone CapabilityAtmospheric Modeling

•Ocean: Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), Wave (SWAN,WWIII)•Ensemble: Ensemble Kalman Filter, Coupled Ensemble Transform•Tropical Cyclone: COAMPS-TC, TC analysis, TC physics, moving nests•Operations: Globally relocatable, 60 areas (2-4x daily), x~1.6-27 km, FNMOC & NAVO COAMPS-OS, coupled option

WAF/NWP Conference, May 2012WAF/NWP Conference, May 20123COAMPS® and COAMPS-OS® are registered trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory

ESMF Modeling Superstructure

Atmospheric Model NCOM Ocean Model SWAN/WWIII Waves

COAMPSCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System

COAMPSCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System

t osp e c ode CO Ocea ode S / a es

Dynamics

Interface to Physics Suites

NRL WRF Others

Flux Coupler

Dynamics

Physics

Dynamics

Physics


ESMF superstructure used to couple models

Flux coupler transfers fields between models

Interface allows for different physics

suites

Flux Coupler

• Share community models and community physics.• ESMF exchange grid facilitates interactions between model and grid meshes.

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An integrated suite of software providing a turnkey, globally relocatable, coupled An integrated suite of software providing a turnkey, globally relocatable, coupled environmental data assimilation production capabilityenvironmental data assimilation production capability

•• Highly automated; quick response timeHighly automated; quick response time

COAMPS-OSCOAMPS-On demand System

COAMPS-OSCOAMPS-On demand System

Highly automated; quick response timeHighly automated; quick response time

•• Globally Globally relocatablerelocatable

•• WebWeb--based configurationbased configuration

•• ForwardForward--deployable or reachdeployable or reach--back modeback mode

•• Ocean and atmosphere analyses, including Ocean and atmosphere analyses, including

dedicated cloud and Doppler radar wind analysesdedicated cloud and Doppler radar wind analyses

•• COAMPSCOAMPS®® mesoscale forecasts with full physicsmesoscale forecasts with full physics

•• Coupled ocean circulation (NCOM), ocean wave Coupled ocean circulation (NCOM), ocean wave

(SWAN, WWIII) using ESMF(SWAN, WWIII) using ESMF

•• Automatically transforms output into dynamic web Automatically transforms output into dynamic web

hi d bhi d b ibl d tibl d t


graphics and webgraphics and web--accessible dataaccessible data

•• Custom interfaces to provide data for HPAC (JEM), Custom interfaces to provide data for HPAC (JEM),

AREPS, AREPS, NowcastsNowcasts and other applicationsand other applications

•• WebWeb--based Remote Monitor capabilitybased Remote Monitor capability

•• DOD, Federal agencies, NATO, university, DOD, Federal agencies, NATO, university, govgov labslabs

•• Operational since 1998 w/ continuous improvementsOperational since 1998 w/ continuous improvements

COAMPS® and COAMPS-OS® are registered trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory.

COAMPS Coupled ModelingCoupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Coupling

COAMPS Coupled ModelingCoupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Coupling

3-km COAMPS/NCOM Coupling

SST (Aug, 2003)ATMOS

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1.51-way

SST (oC) Statistics

M1

M2●●WAVE

Currents, water levels

Wave stress, bottom dragOCEAN

Model Configuration

• One month continuous data assimilation in both the atmosphere


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M1 bias M1 rms M2 bias M2 rms

No Assimilation

2-way

• The 2-way coupled simulation has a smaller mean SST bias and RMS.

• Transitioned to operations (OPS tests successful at FNMOC and NAVO)

p(MVOI) and ocean (NCODA)

• Assimilated special glider observations from the AOSN campaign

• 12-h update cycle, 48-h forecasts• Four-nested atmospheric grids:

• 81, 27, 9, and 3 km (40 L)• Single ocean model mesh:

• 3 km (40 L) Joint with NRL-Stennis Oceanography Division

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Philippines SeaN

Philippines SeaN

Air-Ocean CouplingONR Philippine Straits Experiment

Air-Ocean CouplingONR Philippine Straits Experiment

Easterly monsoon surge produces

oceanic dipole eddy

QuikSCAT Stress COAMPS Stress

Chlorophyll Concentration(2-9, February, 2005 Weekly Composite)Model wind stress curl (20 Jan 2005)Model wind stress curl (20 Jan 2005) Model ocean surface vorticity (25 Jan 2005)

South China Sea

Sulu SeaLUZON

LUZON

MINDORO

PANAY

Manila Bay

South China SeaLubang Island

South China Sea

Sulu SeaLUZON

LUZON

MINDORO

PANAY

Manila Bay

South China SeaLubang Island

p ypair propagating west/northwest

Chlorophyll Concentration

Wind Stress Curl Ocean Sfc. Vorticity

COAMPS2-Way Coupled


x=3 km

2 Way Coupled

Pullen et el. (GRL)

VOCALS Coupled Modeling2-Way Air-Ocean Coupling

VOCALS Coupled Modeling2-Way Air-Ocean Coupling

Daily Mean SST (Oct 20 Daily Mean SST (Oct 20 –– Nov 30, 2008) Nov 30, 2008) Daily Mean SST (Oct 20 Daily Mean SST (Oct 20 –– Nov 30, 2008) Nov 30, 2008)

70.90 55.58 83.67

2-Way1-WayAMSR-TMI

Clouds (Liquid Water Path)


• Two-way coupling better simulates the spatial extent of cloud coverage (LWP)• New insights into cloud-turbulence- aerosol interactions & cloud variability.

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21 members (x=5 km), 12-h Forecasts25-30 June 2005

Atmospheric u-wind componentOcean u-current component

Ensemble Spread21Z 27 June 2005 (9 h)

COAMPS EnsemblesHigh-Resolution Coupled Ensembles

COAMPS EnsemblesHigh-Resolution Coupled Ensembles

Atmospheric potential temperatureOcean temperature

E W


Maximum spread for atmospheric and oceanic temperature and winds/currents are located near

atmospheric BL top & ocean ML bottom E W

Atmosphere Ocean

COAMPS-TC Intensity Forecast Skill2011 Real-Time HFIP Models in W. Atlantic

COAMPS-TC Intensity Forecast Skill2011 Real-Time HFIP Models in W. Atlantic

COAMPS-TC: Advancements in data assimilation, physics, & coupling for TCs.


Courtesy of James Franklin (NHC)

• COAMPS-TC was the leading intensity model in 2011 (and 2010).• Very successful collaboration between Navy and NOAA.

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Real-Time TC ModelsIrene Intensity Errors (kt)

• Widespread damage in Eastern U.S., catastrophic flooding in New England

• Maximum intensity of 105 kt (Cat. 3)

• Landfall in eastern NC at 75 kt (Cat. 1)

Hurricane Irene2011 Real-Time Example

Hurricane Irene2011 Real-Time Example

“CHALLENGES IN PREDICTING THE INTENSITY OF STORMS.” New York Times, 8/27/2011

“HOW IRENE’S FORECAST MISSED THE MARK AND WHY IT COULD HAPPEN AGAIN.” CNN, 8/30/2011

“INTENSITY REMAINS A BIG GAP IN STORM SCIENCE. The National Hurricane Center blew it on predictions of Irene’s wind speed – and it wasn’t the first time”. Miami Herald, 9/2/2011

• Forecasts were for a Cat. 3 landfall

COAMPS-TC


After 00Z 23 SeptemberNo interpolation

“IRENE FORECASTS ON TRACK; NOT UP TO SPEED ON WIND.” Associated Press, 8/28/2011

“IRENE EXPOSES PROBLEMS FORECASTING HURRICANE INTENSITY” Alaska Dispatch, 8/28/2011

• COAMPS-TC performed well for Irene as part of the HFIP real-time demonstration, particularly during the critical landfall forecast period.

• COAMPS-TC skillfully predicted precipitation event (>15” in NC, 10-15” in N.E.)

Covariance between SLP and 700 hPa Temp (contours) 700 hPa RH (fill)

Covariance between SLP and 700 hPa Temp (contours) 700 hPa RH (fill)

• Nested adjoint modeling system.• Multi-scale sensitivity: TCS08 and ITOP.• 4D-Var development underway.

36 h N t d Adj i t R

Ensemble and Adjoint CapabilitiesEnKF Data Assimilation, Adjoint/Ensemble Sensitivity

Ensemble and Adjoint CapabilitiesEnKF Data Assimilation, Adjoint/Ensemble Sensitivity

∂KE/∂u (0-36h)

36-h Nested Adjoint RunSevere European Cyclone Xynthia

28 Feb 2010700-mb GHT


• EnKF-DART capability.• Predictability and data impact studies.• Real-time high-res. TC ensemble forecasts.

Nest 1 (45 km)

15 km

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Radiosondes Cloud Track

CONUS

Per Observation

R C

COAMPS AdjointMesoscale Observation Impact System

COAMPS AdjointMesoscale Observation Impact System

Linked adjoints of analysis (3D-Var) and nonhydrostatic modelCOAMPS Impacts 12/24-31 2010

EPACR

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Observation impact depends on region of interest.

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COAMPS Vertical ResolutionHigher Model Top (50 km)

COAMPS Vertical ResolutionHigher Model Top (50 km)

• 60 vertical levels

• 19 levels below 1000 m

• New Implicit Rayleigh dampening

COAMPS Levels (m)

Reduces Temp RMSE

above 10 hPa


*COAMPS is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory

30L 60L

Higher model top (~50 km) improves upper-level temperature statistics and allows for more effective radiance assimilation (transitioned to FNMOC).

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55--day wintertime (January 1day wintertime (January 1--5, 2006)5, 2006)2 m air temperature forecast statistics2 m air temperature forecast statistics

55--day summertime (July 1day summertime (July 1--5, 2006)5, 2006)2 m air temperature forecast statistics2 m air temperature forecast statistics

Parameterization ResearchImproved Radiation ParameterizationParameterization Research

Improved Radiation Parameterization

New 4-Stream Fu-Liou Radiation Parameterization and NOAH LSM Improves 2-m Temperature Statistics

2 m air temperature forecast statistics2 m air temperature forecast statisticsCONUS 18 km gridCONUS 18 km grid

2 m air temperature forecast statistics2 m air temperature forecast statisticsCONUS 18 km gridCONUS 18 km grid

SummerSummer WinterWinter


NRL DEP 0955 UTC 12 Nov 2008 COAMPS 54 h Surface Dust Forecastvalid 0600 UTC 12 Nov 2008

COAMPS Aerosol ModelingCoupled Aerosol Modeling Capability

COAMPS Aerosol ModelingCoupled Aerosol Modeling Capability


• Aerosol model integrated within COAMPS.• Improved dust source database (DSD) resolves dust plumes. • High resolution DSD for Afghanistan/Pakistan in operations.

D. Westphal, M. Liu, A. Walker

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• Satellite images show sharp transition from closed to open-cell clouds during VOCALS (Oct. 2008).

COAMPS LES f ll i l t

Clouds, Aerosols, TurbulenceVOCALS Large Eddy Simulation (LES)

Clouds, Aerosols, TurbulenceVOCALS Large Eddy Simulation (LES)

• COAMPS-LES successfully simulates closed and open cell clouds with high and low aerosol number concentration.

LES LES


Selective advection similar to 5th order Bott and has a semi-

Lagrangian

Selective Advection (t=0.5 s)Leapfrog needs a smaller time

step & has more non-physical oscillations

Leapfrog (t=0.125 s)

Numerical MethodsSelective Monotonic Advection for COAMPS

Numerical MethodsSelective Monotonic Advection for COAMPS

capability

3rd Order Bott (t=0.5 s)5th Order Bott (t=0.5 s)

WAF/NWP Conference, May 2012WAF/NWP Conference, May 201218In Collaboration with U. Wash. (D. Durran and P. Blossey)

• Selective FCT only applies flux correction near perceived discontinuities.

• Avoids oscillations at discontinuities & flux correction used where needed.

• Semi-Lagrangian flux form for efficiency and global conservation

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• Spectral Element Dynamical Core:• High order accuracy• Extremely scalable• Mesoscale, Global options (w/ MPI)

New Dynamical CoreNonhydrostatic Unified Model for the Atmosphere (NUMA)

New Dynamical CoreNonhydrostatic Unified Model for the Atmosphere (NUMA)

• Semi-implicit solver• Incorporation of physics underway

2D Squall Line w/1000 m resolution

and 10th order polynomials

AccumulationAccumulation

Clouds (shaded), Rain (contours)Clouds (shaded), Rain (contours)


Density Current w/50 m resolution

and 8th order polynomials

Frank Giraldo (NPS), Sasa Gabersek (NRL)

RainrateRainrate

• Recent Advances to COAMPS:–Air-sea coupled system using ESMF (Operational at FNMOC, NAVO)

–COAMPS-TC tropical cyclone prediction (Ops. testing at FNMOC)

Increased vertical (50 km top 60L) & horizontal resolution (Ops testing)

Summary and Future PlansMesoscale Modeling at NRL

Summary and Future PlansMesoscale Modeling at NRL

–Increased vertical (50 km top, 60L) & horizontal resolution (Ops. testing)

–Coupled ensemble system

–New physics & numerics (land surface, Fu-Liou radiation, new KF, SMA)

• Further improvements to COAMPS and its various capabilities.–Air-sea-wave-ice capability, coupled COAMPS-TC, coupled ensembles

–Embedded transport and aerosol models, urban downscaling (Fast3D)

–New physics & numerics (microphysics, PBL, air-sea phys, semi-Lagrangian)


–Advanced data assim. (EnKF, 4D-Var) & predictability tools (adjoint, EnKF)

• Participate in and leverage field campaigns to guide development–TCs (TCS08, ITOP, HS3), Mesoscale (PhilEX, SAANGRIA), PBL (VOCALS)

• Develop a next-generation global/mesoscale/microscale model –Possible dynamical core for Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC)

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W. Atlantic Intensity Error2010 and 2011 Seasons

W. Atlantic Intensity Error2010 and 2011 Seasons

bias is dashed

COAMPS-TC


• COAMPS-TC has been tested in real time over WATL, EPAC, WPAC, CPAC, IO, SH.• COAMPS-TC intensity forecasts verified well for 2010 and 2011, particularly

beyond 30 h where the error growth was much slower than other models.

U.S. Navy Global Modeling SystemsNOGAPS and NAVGEM

U.S. Navy Global Modeling SystemsNOGAPS and NAVGEM

NOGAPS (current)Navy Operational Global

Atmospheric Prediction System

NAVGEM (new)Navy Global

Environmental Model

St ti R di Bi • Variational Radiance• Static Radiance Bias Correction

• 4DVAR

• Variational Radiance Bias Correction

• 4DVAR Ens Hybrid• Weak Constraint

• Eulerian Advection• T319L42

• Semi-Lagrangian Adv.• T359L42 (to T500+L80+)

• Emanuel Convection • SAS Convection


• Harshvardhan Radiation• Diagnostic Clouds

• RRTMG Radiation• Prognostic Clouds

• ESMF• Coupling to HYCOM• NOAA Land Surface• Convective GWD

recent advancements to the u.s. navy’s coupled mesoscale...

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