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Recent Advances In Tools For Forest and Watershed
Management
Emrys TreasureBiological Scientist and TACCIMO Coordinator
Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center
Southern Research StationSouthern Research Station
Raleigh, NC
2 March 2010
Presentation Overview
� Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts
and Management Options (TACCIMO)and Management Options (TACCIMO)
�Water Supply Stress Index – Carbon and
Biodiversity (WaSSI-CB)
TACCIMOA Climate Change Tool for Forest Managers
www.forestthreats.org/taccimotool
USDA Forest Service
Eastern Forest Environmental Threat
Assessment Center
Steve McNulty (PI), Emrys Treasure, Jennifer Moore Myers, Robert HerringEastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, Southern Research Station,
USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC
Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and
Management Options
A USDA Forest Service PartnershipSouthern Research Station – Southern Region Planning
USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC
Chris Liggett (PI), David Meriwether, Paul ArndtSouthern Region Planning, USDA Forest Service, Atlanta, GA
Todd Pierce, Jeff Hicks, Amber Ramirez, Caroline DoughertyUniversity of North Carolina – Asheville, National Ecosystem Modeling and
Assessment Center, Asheville, NC
What Is TACCIMO?
Interactive and adaptive information framework
•Peer reviewed quotations describing climate change
•Linked directly with land management plans
Detailed user guide and quick start guides
•Step-by-step instructions
•Interpretation guidance
•Case studies, definitions, and links to other resources
Interactive mapping tool
•Temperature and precipitation projections
•Natural resource relevant context layers
TACCIMO Fundamentals
TACCIMO enables users to keep pace with
and accurately consider climate change in
natural resource management activities
TACCIMO is a web-based assessment and
1. PlanningManagement
conditions and
capabilities to address
climate change
TACCIMO is a web-based assessment and
reporting tool that substantively connects
science and planning information
TACCIMO includes an interactive mapping
tool, detailed user guides, training, and
durable connections with climate change
scientists
2. SciencePhysical and biological
impacts of climate
change and potential
management options
3. ReportCustom and
synthesized account of
science and related
planning
ClimateChange
Projections
ClimateChange Science
Land and Resource
Management Plans
Planning
Input
Output
Current Situation Report (CSR)
Feedback
PlanningReport
(USFS Planners)Basic
Report(State & Private)
Climate Change Factors Impacting Ecosystems
• Direct Impacts
• Management Options
• Source Literature
• Supporting Literature
• Geographic Location
Input
Climate Change Factors Impacting Ecosystems
• Direct Impacts
• Management Options
• Supporting Literature
• Geographic Location
• Interactions
Climate Change SciencePhysical and biological impacts of climate change and management options
• Quotations representing 350 direct impacts and 200
management options with over 500 automatically
generated linkages
• Sourced from 125 synthesis and primary source peer
reviewed publications with 350 links to supporting
literature across 13 factors
Direct Impacts Management Options
and counting …
Land and Resource Management Plans
• Desired Conditions
• Objectives
• Design Criteria
• Monitoring Questions
Input
Land and Resource Management PlansConnecting science with management conditions and capabilities
• Sourced directly from
eastern (R8 & R9) land and
resource management
plans
• Automatically linked to
TACCIMO factors by plan
headings
Input
Modeling Group GCM
Canadian Centre for Climate
Modeling & AnalysisCGCM3.1
• Understanding the likely range and variability of future climate
• Context layers (infrastructure, ownership, etc)
• Interactive tools include forecasts for water supply, forest
productivity, biodiversity, and others (versions 2.0 & 3.0)
• Geospatial selections included with the complete TACCIMO
report (version 3.0)
Geospatial ResourcesProviding context to consider direct impacts and management options
Projected Climate Change
• 3 Global Circulation Models
• 3 IPCC Scenarios
• 2 Climate Variables (ppt & tavg)
• Interactive Tools and Summaries
Scenario Emissions Path
SRES A2 "higher" emissions path
SRES A1B "middle" emissions path
SRES B1 "lower" emissions path
Modeling & Analysis
Hadley Centre for Climate
Prediction and ResearchHadCM3
NOAA / Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics LaboratoryCM2.1
Live Demo
Water Supply Stress Index – Carbon and Biodiversity
(WaSSI-CB)
Contact: Ge Sun, Steve McNulty, Peter Caldwell
WaSSI
Current Water Demand (MGD)
Water Demand0 - 100100 - 200200 - 400400 - 800800 - 16001600 - 32003200 - 6620
States
WaSSI
Current Water Supply (MGD)
Water Supply0 - 100100 - 500500 - 10001000 - 20002000 - 40004000 - 80008000 - 1200012000 - 2000020000 - 60000
States
WaSSI
WaSSI
Response of Forest Water Yield to 50% LAI Reduction
(mm/year)
Water Yield Change
0 - 25
26 - 50
51 - 75
76 - 100
101 - 125
126 - 160
WaSSI
Precip -10%
Response of Forest Water Yield to 10% Precipitation Reduction
(mm/year)
% Response of Forest Water Yield to 10% Precipitation Reduction
mm/yr. %
Sensitivity
-10% Precip
-302 - -200
-199 - -100
-99 - -50
-49 - 0
Sensitivity
-10% Precip.
-33 - -20
-19 - -10
-9 - -5
-4 - 0
WaSSI
Response of Forest Water Yield to Temp Rise (2 o C)
(mm/year)% Response of Forest Water Yield to Temp Rise (2
o C)
Temp + 2 oC
Sensitivity
Temp rise 2 oC
-85 - -50
-49 - -30
-29 - -15
-14 - 6
Sensitivity
Temp + 2 oC
-77 - -50
-49 - -30
-29 - -10
-9 - 14
mm/yr. %
WaSSI
Mean Response of Water Yield to Climate Change
in 2050 (mm yr.-1)
Response
-730 - -200
-199 - -100
-99 - 0
1 - 100
101 - 200
201 - 886
WaSSI-CB
WaSSI-CB
Vertebrate Species Richness
Conclusions
TACCIMO
•Resource that makes current, creditable, and concise
climate change information available
•Responsive to user needs and requests
In General
•TACCIMO is a resource to help relate science to the needs of
resource management practitioners
WaSSI
•Understand the sensitivity of water yield to climate
change and tradeoffs with forest productivity and
biodiversity
Thank You!
Need more information?
Want to use the tools?Want to use the tools?
Want to provide feedback?
www.forestthreats.org