recent development of the aim/impact model hideo harasawa ...€¦ · water supply infrastructures...
TRANSCRIPT
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Recent Development of the AIM/Impact Model
Hideo Harasawa (NIES)
1. Impact Study in AIM, IPCC, and Japan
2. Progress of AIM/Impact Models- AIM/Impact[Country]: Takahashi
- AIM/Water : Hijioka
- AIM/Impact[Korea]: Jeon & Jung
- Database for AIM/Impact: AIM/Impact-China, Profs. Sun, Li & You
3. Future Direction
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OCEANEnergy and
carbon budget of Ocean
HYDROSurface water balance
Routing module
WATERSupply infrastructures
demand
ENERGYEnergy
technology and resources
CLIMATERadiation,
Energy balance, Temperature and
Sea level rise
FOODProduction and
Demand
LANDLand-use allocation and GHGs emission
CGESupply and demand equilibrium
Of goods, energy, water, land and labor
VEGVegetation dynamics
POP Population, Fertility and Mobility
HEALTHHealth impacts of
Environmental Change
ENVEnvironmental Pressure
and counter-measure CYCLEChemistry of
GHGs
AIM/IMPACTSAIM/IMPACTS
AIM/EMISSIONAIM/EMISSION
AIM/CLIMATEAIM/CLIMATE
AI/Impact Mode Structure
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AIM/Impact
Water Resource
Vegetation
Agriculture
Human Health
Climate Scenario
Adaptation
IPCC :・TGCIA・AIACC・FoAR
Korea: AIM/Impact- Korea
Database・Impact, Adaptation, Cities
AIM/WATER
・Water Use in Cities
・Water Risk Management
Model Development・Human Health (advanced model)・Land Use・Dynamic Vegetation
AIM/Impact
AIM/Impact[Country]・Manual・Scenario (Climate, …)・Impact Models/Tools
MA・Ecosystem・Impacts
Global to/and Country
GEO3
ASIA Innovation
China: AIM/Impact- China
India: AIM/Impact- India
DB DB DB
DB
GCM Team
Global Warming Research Initiative
US-JP
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Future Temperature Increase (SRES Scenario)
温暖化の予測結果(SRESシナリオによる)
By 2100,1.4~5.8℃ Temp. Increase, 9~88cm Sea Level Rise
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Emission Scenario Climate Model & Prediction
Climate Scenario
→ Impact Assessment
Climate Model (GCM)
A-GCM
→AO-GCM
Regional Climate Model
Equilibrium Experiment
×2 CO2
Transient Experiment
1% Increase
SRES Scenario
Stabilization Scenario
Arbitrary Scenario +/-1,2,..℃
Equilibrium Experiment
×2 CO2
Transient Experiment
1% Increase
(SRES Scenario)
Regional Climate Scenario
・Down Scaling
・(Regional Climate Model)
IS92a ~f・BaU Scenario
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ECHAM4 HadCM2 CSIRO CCCma GFDL NCAR CCSR
Research Institute(Country)
German Climate Research Center (Germ)
Hadley Center (UK)
CSIRO(Australia)
Canada Climate Model Analysis Center(Canada)
Geophyscial Fluid Dynamics Laboratory(US)
National Canter of Atmospheric Research (US)
Tokyo Univ -Climate System Research Center (Japan)
AGCM Spatial Resolution
2.8°x2.8°L19
2.5°x 3.75° L19
3.2°x5.6°L9
3.7°x3.7°L10
4.5°x7.5°L9
4.5°x7.5°L9
5.6°x5.6°L20
OGCM Spatial Resolution
2.8°x2.8°L11
2.5°x 3.75° L20
3.2°x5.6°L21
1.8°x1.8°L29
4.5°x 3.75° L12
1°x1° L20 2.8°x2.8°L17
Control CO2c Concentration
354 ppmv 323 ppmv 330 ppmv 295 ppmv 300 ppmv 330 ppmv N.A.
CO2 Conc. Rate of Increase
1% yr-1 1% yr-1 0.9% yr-1 1% yr-1 1% yr-1 1% yr-1 1% yr-1
Calc. Period (Year)
Cont : 240GHG : 240GHG+A : 240
Cont : 240GHG : 240GHG+A : 240
Cont : 219GHG : 219GHG+A : 219
Cont : 200GHG : 200GHG+A : 200
Cont : 1000GHG : 100GHG+A : 300
Cont : 136GHG : 136GHG+A : 136
Cont : 210GHG : 210GHG+A : 210
2xCO2 Global Average Temperature Increase(oC)
1.3 1.7 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 (est.) N. A.
2 x CO2Equilibrium Temperature (oC)
2.6 2.5 4.3 3.5 3.7 4.6 N. A.
Climate Scenarios distributed by IPCC Data Distribution Center
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Regional Climate Scenario (JMA/MRI)
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Future Climate (temperature) : Statistical Down ScalingFuture Climate (temperature) : Statistical Down Scaling
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Future Climate(Rainfall): Statistical Down ScalingFuture Climate(Rainfall): Statistical Down Scaling
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IPCC
2002. 4 IPCC 18th Plenary
・New Bureau for Fourth Assessment Report (FoAR)
Technical Paper
・Tech. Paper on Climate Change and Biodiversity
・Tech. Paper on Climate Change and Sustainable Development
・Tech. Paper on Levels of GHG in the Atmosphere and Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with climate System
AIACC
・Capacity Building (Impact Study by DC, for DC)
・GEF Fund
・UNEP, START, IPCC, TWAS
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AIACC:
Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change
Objectives:
(i) To advance scientific understanding and fill gaps in knowledge regarding climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in developing countries
(ii) To build and enhance capacity in developing countries to carry out and sustain research in these areas
Period/Budget:
2- 3 years / $100,000-$250,000 per project
No. of Projects accepted: 20
Support: UNEP, START, IPCC, Third World Academy of Science
Science Director: Neil Leary (former IPCC WG2 TSU Officer)
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Components
Monitoring
Climate Modeling
Impact & Adaptation Assessment
Technology Development
Integrated Assessment
Council for Science and Technology Policy(Cabinet Office of Japan)
Research Initiative
Research Initiative
Research Initiative
Research Initiative
Research Initiative
Global Warming Watershed Management
Recycle-oriented Society
Water Cycle ….
AIM
Global Warming Research Initiative
(FY. 2002~2006)
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Comprehensive Study on Global Warming Impacts and Adaptation Strategy
Assessment
Indicator System
Assessment Tools
Impact Map
Detection(Region)
Impact Prediction
Ecosystem
Coast・Infra
Agriculture
Industry・Energy
Health・Life
Risk Map
・・・・・
Social, Economic, and Env. Scenario
Mitigation Options
Adaptation Options
・Technology
・Economy/Institution
・Risk and Cost
Technology Transfer to Asian Countries
Best-Mix Strategy
リスク、コスト便益
副次的便益
社会的受容性
Integrated Assessment
Scenario Analysis
持続的発展シナリオ
・Technology
・Economy/Institution
・Cost
Com
pone
nts a
nd S
tudy
Pla
n
Vul
nera
ble/
Hig
h R
isk
Sect
ors a
nd A
reas
Ada
ptat
ion
in v
ulne
rabl
e se
ctor
s and
are
as
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Proposed Topics 2
2.1 Scenario Development: Analysis and development of future scenarios for socioeconomic and environmental conditions, and consequent future emission scenarios towards the development of new IPCC scenarios for the prediction of future climate change
2.2 Integrated Model: Development of a climate-socioeconomic integrated model based on an emission model, climate model and impact model
2.3 Impact and Adaptation: Research on current and projected climate change impacts and adaptation options including developing countries in the Asia-Pacific and South American regions
2.4 Best mix Policy: Scientific evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options making use of the integrated model
Tentative U.S.-Japan Joint Project Listdeveloped by
Second Meeting of the U.S.-Japan High-Level Consultations on Climate ChangeScience and Technology Working Group
Priority Area 2:Impact and adaptation/mitigation policy assessment employing emission-climate-impact integrated models
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JPCC2
2000.1 Sub-Committee Member Meeting2000.7 Writing Team Meeting (about 70 researchers)2001.1 Experts Review2001.3 Completion of the JPCC2 Report2001.3 Dissemination, Workshop, etc.
Outputs・Report “Global Warming Impacts In Japan 2001”
・Pamphlet
・Book (Now editing)
・English Book (Now editing)
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Future Rice Yields predicted based on SRES Scenario (A1)
Progress of AIM/Impact
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0.5 1.0 2.0 4.0 8.0 (t/ha)
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0.5 1.0 2.0 4.0 8.0 (t/ha)
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3 30 300 3000 30000 300000 (m3/(a-capita)
Water availability per capita, 1990
Water Resources
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3 30 300 3000 30000 300000 (m3/(a-capita)
Water availability per capita, 2050
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AIM/Impact (Health)
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日最高気温と熱中症患者発生数
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0
日最高気温(℃)
熱中症患者発生数(人/日)
8
22
16
10
5
8
4 4 4
15
4546
28
17
24
9
4
16
12
23
43
80
23
6
1
42
8
27
21
2
6
10
2 1 2
9
31
8
2 24
86
2 1
24
36.7
30.5
32.5
35.334.9
33.0
29.6
30.7
32.231.7
32.8
34.2
29.0
26.8
28.7
32.0
36.3
29.3
34.4
27.727.0
25.8
26.9
29.7
33.0
30.2
24.2
31.0
34.0
30.6
31.8 31.7
30.0
27.327.6
33.0
32.0 31.9
31.0
35.736.1
35.1
34.4
33.0
33.9 33.4
31.5
33.6
33.8
34.635.6
30.1
34.5
31.5
29.5
28.4
31.5
29.8 29.827.7
36.9
26.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
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2
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日
0.0℃
5.0℃
10.0℃
15.0℃
20.0℃
25.0℃
30.0℃
35.0℃
40.0℃
45.0℃
猛暑による影響が伺える傷病者の発生状況(東京都における最高気温と搬送者数)平成13年7月1日~8月31日 (7月:538人、8月:90人) 東京消防庁救助課調べ
Heat Wave Impacts (last June-August)
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Future Development
・AIM/Impact - Global Model
Prediction of Impacts based on SRES-based climate Scenarios
Water Supply vs. Water Demand + Food Security
Advanced Model: Health, Land, Dynamic Vegetation
・AIM/Impact[Country]
Basic tools/Data/Information
AIM/Impact-Korea, China, India
・AIM/Water - City
・Adaptation Countermeasures and Cost Estimation