Recent employment trends in India and China:

An unfortunate convergence

C. P. Chandrasekhar and

Jayati Ghosh

Asian century?

• Both China and India have large populations covering substantial and diverse geographical areas, large economies with even larger potential size.

• Current “success stories” of globalisation: two economies that have apparently benefited.

• Success defined by the high and sustained rates of growth of aggregate and per capita national income; the absence of major financial crises; and substantial

reduction in income poverty.

Not similar economies

• These economies are often treated as broadly similar in terms of growth potential and other features.

• But there are crucial differences between the two economies which render such similarities very superficial .

Institutional conditions

• India was a “mixed economy” with large private sector, so essentially capitalist market economy with the associated tendency to involuntary unemployment.

• China was mostly a command economy, which until recently had a very small private sector; there is still substantial state control over macroeconomic processes in forms that have differed from more conventional capitalist macroeconomic policy.

The financial sector

• India: financial sector was typical of the “mixed economy” without comprehensive government control over the financial system; financial liberalisation since early 1990s meant further loss of control over financial allocations by the state.

• China: financial system still under the control of the state, despite recent liberalisation. Four public sector banks handle the bulk of the transactions in the economy, and can regulate the volume of credit to manage the economic cycle, and direct credit to priority sectors.

Rates of GDP growth

• The Chinese economy has grown at an average annual rate of 9.8 per cent for two and a half decades, showing volatility around high trend.

• India’s economy has grown at around 5-6 per cent per year over the same period, breaking from “Hindu” rate of 3 per cent. But very recently the average growth rate for the last four years is just above 8 per cent.

Rates of investment

• The investment rate in China (investment as a share of GDP) has fluctuated between 35 - 44 per cent over the past 25 years, compared to 20 - 26 per cent in India.

• Aggregate ICORs (incremental capital-output ratios) have been around the same in both economies.

• Infrastructure investment from the early 1990s has

averaged 19 per cent of GDP in China, compared to 2 per cent in India.

Structural change over four decades

• China: “classic” pattern, moving from primary to manufacturing sector, which has doubled its share of workforce and tripled its share of output.

• India: Move has been mainly from agriculture to services in share of output, with no substantial increase in manufacturing, and the structure of employment has not changed much. Share of the primary sector in GDP fell from 60 per cent to 25 per cent in four decades, but share in employment still more than 60 per cent.

Trade patterns

• China: Rapid export growth involving aggressive increases on world market shares, based on relocative capital attracted by cheap labour and heavily subsidised infrastructure.

• India: Lower rate of export growth, with cheap labour due to low absolute wages rather than public provision and poor infrastructure development. So exports have not yet become engine of growth, except in services.

Poverty reduction

• China: Officially 4 per cent of the population now lives under the poverty line, unofficially around 12 per cent. (Reflects earlier asset redistribution and basic needs provision in China under communism, plus larger mass market and recent role of agricultural prices.)

• India: Official poverty ratio much higher and persistent, currently 28 per cent. Food deprivation is much higher.

Human development

• China: earlier extensive public provision of health and education: universal education until Class X, and public services to ensure nutrition, health and sanitation. (In the 1990s, higher fees and some privatisation of such services led to reduced access and worsening indicators; since 2002 revival of public spending in these areas.)

• India: the public provision of all of these has been extremely inadequate throughout this period and has deteriorated in per capita terms since the early 1990s. Very recently slight increase in education spending but still well below China; government health spending still very low.

Inequalities

• In both economies the recent pattern of growth has been inequalising.

• China: spatial inequalities – across regions –

have been the sharpest. More recently, vertical inequalities, especially for migrant population vis-à-vis others.

• India: vertical inequalities and the rural-urban divide have become much more marked.

Sustainability of current patterns

• China: high export-high accumulation model which requires constantly increasing shares of world markets and very high investment rates. Already signs of reduced unit values of exports and stagnation/decline of manufacturing employment.

• India: IT-enabled services experiencing current boom, but competitive threat from other countries, plus question about whether it will be enough to transform India’s huge

labour force into higher productivity activities.

India: Employment growth

Annual rates of employment growth for usual status workers (per cent)

1.36

2.77

2.03

3.39

0.66

2.271.97

3.22

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Rural Urban

1983 to 1987-88 1987-88 to 1993-94 1993-94 to 1999-2000 1999-2000 to 2004-05

India: Growing role of self-employment

Share of self-employment in usual status employment

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1983 1987-88 1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05

Rural males Rural females Urban males Urban females

India: Growth rates of employment(Annual compound rates per cent)

1993-94 to 1999-2000

1999-2000 to 2004-05

Agricultural self employment -0.53 2.89 Agricultural wage employment 1.06 -3.18 Total agricultural employment 0.03 0.83

Rural non-agri self employment 2.34 5.72 Rural non-agri wage employment 2.68 3.79 Rural total non-agri employment 2.26 5.27

Urban non-agri employment 3.13 4.08 Secondary employment 2.91 4.64 Tertiary employment 2.27 4.67

Total non-agricultural employment 2.53 4.66

India: Real wages of regular workers

Average real wages per day of regular workers (at constant 1993-94 prices)

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05

Rural males Rural females Urban males Urban females

India: Real wages of casual labour

Average real daily wages of casual labour (at constant 1993-94 prices)

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05

Rural males Rural females Urban males Urban females

India: Organised sector employment

Employment in the organised sector

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1981

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Public Sector Private Sector Total

India: Labour productivity in organised manufacturing

Net value added per worker (in constant prices)

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

1981

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

India: Wage share of value added in organised manufacturing

Share of wages in value added

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

1981

-82

1982

-83

1983

-84

1984

-85

1985

-86

1986

-87

1987

-88

1988

-89

1989

-90

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-200

0

2000

-200

1

2001

-200

2

2002

-200

3

2003

-04

India: Real wages in organised manufacturing

Average real wages in organised manufacturing

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-04

India: Remuneration in self-employment

Per cent finding this amount of Rs. per month remunerative

Per cent finding their

self-employed activity

remunerative 0-

1000 1001-1500

1501-2000

2001-2500

2501-3000

> 3000

Rural males 51.1 12.9 17.5 16.5 11.4 12.9 27.3 Rural females 51.4 34.2 23.5 15.4 8.9 7.2 9.9 Rural persons 51.2 21.2 19.7 16 10.5 10.7 20.5 Urban males 60.9 4.9 8.2 9.9 7.2 12.2 56.5 Urban females 50.9 32.8 20.2 12.6 7.7 8.1 18.3 Urban persons 58.6 10.4 10.6 10.4 7.4 11.5 48.9

Chart 4: Per cent of self-employed workers who consider their own income remunerative, by income-range considered remunerative

20

30

40

50

60

70

80<1

000

1000

-150

0

1500

-200

0

2000

-250

0

2500

-300

0

>300

0

Rural Males Urban Males Rural Females Urban Females

India: Unemployment ratesRural India

Urban India

15-19 20-24 All 15+ 15-19 20-24 All 15+ Males

1993-94 3.3 4.9 2.0 11.9 12.6 5.4 1999-00 5.5 5.2 2.1 14.2 12.8 4.8

Usual Status

2004-05 7.9 6.2 2.1 14 12.5 4.4 1993-94 9.0 10.3 5.6 16.2 17.0 6.7 1999-00 13.1 11.7 7.2 19 17.1 7.3

Current Daily Status 2004-05 15 12.9 8.0 18.4 15.8 7.3

Females 1993-94 1.9 2.8 1.3 12.8 21.7 8.3 1999-00 3.2 4.9 1.5 13.2 19.4 7.1

Usual Status

2004-05 6.7 9.3 3.1 15.6 25.8 9.1 1993-94 8.3 8.2 5.6 18.6 28.5 10.4 1999-00 12.8 12.1 7 18 25.9 9.4

Current Daily Status 2004-05 12.6 14.9 8.7 16.4 27.3 11.6

China: Work force distribution

Primary Secondary Tertiary 1952 83.5 7.4 9.1 1965 81.6 8.4 10.0 1975 77.2 13.5 9.3 1985 62.4 20.8 16.8 1995 52.2 23.0 24.8 2005 44.8 23.8 31.4

China: Output and employment growth

1980-

90 1990-2000

Primary sector Annual employment growth 2.8 -0.8 Annual Value Added growth 6.2 3.8 Employment elasticity 0.45 -0.21

Secondary sector Annual employment growth 5.9 1.6 Annual Value Added growth 9.5 13.5 Employment elasticity 0.62 0.12

Tertiary Sector Annual employment growth 7.9 5.1 Annual Value Added growth 12.2 9.1 Employment elasticity 0.65 0.56

All sectors Annual employment growth 4.1 1.1 Annual Value Added growth 9.3 10.1 Employment elasticity 0.44 0.11

China's exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

19811982198319851986198919921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Total exports, $ bn Per cent processed in total exports

US clothing imports from Mainland China

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Volume-based market share Unit value

China - Employment in manufacturing

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

China: Urban employment

Share of urban employment by type of employer

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

1978

1980

1985

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

State owned units Collectives & coops Other private units Self-employed

China: Rural non-agricultural employment

Share of rural employment

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1978

1980

1985

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

TVEs Private enterprises Self-employed

China: Annual change in real wages

Average of all units

State-owned units

Urban collective

units

Units of other

ownership type

1978 6.0 6.2 5.1 1980 6.1 6.0 6.9 1985 5.3 4.8 6.6 22.5 1989 -4.8 -4.6 -6.1 -2.3 1990 9.2 9.7 6.6 8.9 1991 4.0 3.2 5.6 10.5 1992 6.7 7.0 4.1 5.3 1993 7.1 5.7 5.9 7.9 1994 7.7 8.7 0.2 1.5 1995 3.8 0.4 3.7 1.4 1996 3.8 2.6 0.6 1.7 1997 1.1 4.2 1.7 3.2 1998 7.2 6.7 3.1 -1.7 1999 13.1 12.9 9.7 11.0 2000 11.4 10.9 7.6 10.9 2001 15.2 16.2 8.9 9.7 2002 15.5 16.3 12.7 9.9 2003 12.0 12.3 12.2 9.3 2004 10.5 11.1 9.5 8.0 2005 12.8 13.6 13.2 10.4

Unorganised and migrant workers in China

• These real wage data leave out the increasing proportion of unorganised workers, most particularly the rural migrants.

• Rural-urban migrants currently estimated by CASS to be around 150 -180 million (half the urban work force).

• Recent CASS survey shows that in 2005 a majority of migrant workers were in informal activities and typically faced long hours of work for all days of the week, for less than minimum wages and with poor residential conditions.

China - Investment and consumption rates

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

Investment rate Consumption rate

Current issues similar

Most important problems in both economies are currently the same:

• Agrarian crisis

• Inadequate generation of employment in terms of “decent work”

• Public neglect of social sectors

• Growing inequalities.

Lessons

• For more inclusive growth, the generation of good quality productive employment is the most critical variable.

• Need growth strategy that allows and encourages labour productivity increases overall while significantly expanding expenditure – and therefore income and employment opportunities – in social sectors.

• Major role for state intervention, through direct public investment and through fiscal, monetary and market-based measures that alter the structure of incentives for private agents.