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International migration: International migration: Recent levels, trends and prospectsRecent levels, trends and prospects

Eleventh Coordination Meeting on International MigrationNew York, 21-22 February 2013

Clare MenozziClare MenozziMigration Section, Population DivisionMigration Section, Population Division

Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)United NationsUnited Nations

United Nations, Population Division/DESA

Data on international migration produced by the Population Division

1. International migrant stock(Estimates and short-term projections produced by the Migration Section)

2. International migration flows(Empirical data compiled by the Migration Section)

3. Net migration(Estimates and long-term projections produced by the PEP Section)

What are international migrant stocks?

Number of persons living outside of their

country of birth or citizenship at one

point in time


The number of international migrants has increased….

156166

178

195214

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

??

2013 Revision2008

Revision

International migrant stock, 1990 to 2010 (millions)


2013 Revision

The evidence base has improvedCountries with data for the 1990, 2000 or 2010 census round

With data for three census roundsWith data for two census roundsWith data for one census roundWith no data


51%49%

Coverage has also improvedTotal migrant stock residing in a country

with data for the 2010 census round (percentage)


79%

21%

2013 Revision

With no data for the 2010 census round

With data for the 2010 census round


Selected characteristics of international migrants

1. Sex

2. Age (launched in 2010)

3. Origin (launched in 2012)

1. Sex• Feminization of migration

2. Age (launched in 2010)• Migrant children• The contributions of migrants to host societies

(dependency ratios)• Ageing among migrants

3. Origin (launched in 2012)• South-South, intra-regional migration• Size of transnational communities (diasporas)• Average distances • …

Most migration occurs within regions rather than across regions …

75 per cent or over50 to less than 75 per centLess than 50 per cent

International migrants living in the same major area as the one they were born in, 2010 (percentage)


… but migration patterns are changing

Change in migrant stock by major area of origin, 1990 to 2010 (percentage)

Declined due to the outflow or death of migrants from another major areaDeclined due to the outflow or death of migrants from the same major areaIncreased mainly due to the inflow of migrants from another major areaIncreased mainly due to the inflow of migrants from the same major area


What are international migration flows?

International migration flows refer to the event of moving,

from one country (origin) to another country (destination)

in a given period (for example 1 year)


Coverage:• 15 countries in 2005 revision• 29 countries in 2008 revision• 43 countries in 2010 revision

Types of flows:• Inflows • Outflows• Net flows

Criteria used to classify migrants:• Country of birth• Citizenship• Place of residence (previous or future)


The Population Division has expanded its data on migration flows

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

AsiaAfrica

Europe

Latin America and the

Caribbean

Other

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Inflows …Inflow of foreign migrants to Spain by major area of origin, 1990 to 2010


Global financial crisis

-56%

-65%

-65%

-85%

-63%

-32%

-15%

-49%

Romania

United Kingdom

Paraguay

China

Brazil

Morocco

Colombia

Ecuador

Countries of origin of foreign immigrants to Spain that experienced the largest decline, 2008 to 2010 (percentage change)

Inflows …


AsiaAfrica

Europe

Latin America and the

Caribbean

Other

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Outflows …Outflow of citizens from Spain by major area of destination, 1990 to 2010


Foreigners

Citizens

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Outflows …


Foreigners

Citizens

Outflow of citizens and foreigners from Spain, 1990 to 2010

What is net migration?

Number immigrants minus the number of

emigrants

It includes both foreigners and citizens…


In several developed countries, net migration is an important component of population

change ...


Change in population size, by the main demographic component affecting that change, 1990 to 2010

Decreased mainly due to natural changeDecreased mainly due to net migrationIncreased mainly due to net migrationIncreased mainly due to natural change

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1950-1960 1980-1990 2010-2020 2040-2050

… and will likely continue to be so in the future

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1950-1960 1980-1990 2010-2020 2040-2050

Total net change

Net migration (immigrants-emigrants)

Natural change (births-deaths)

EuropeAfrica


Currently looking at ways to improve assumptions about future net migration trends

Contribution of natural change and net migration to net population change, 1950 to 2050 (millions)

5

16

-8

-3-5

Europe NorthernAmerica

Oceania Caribbean Polynesia

In countries of destination, international migration often leads to an increase in the number of births …


Difference in the number of births with and without net migration during the period 1990 to 2010 (percentage change)

Forthcoming data1. International migrant stocks

(2013 revision)• Sex• Age• Origin

2. International migration flows (2013 revision)

• Expanded coverage (South-South migration)

3. Net migration (2012 revision)• Ongoing work: alternative scenarios for

projecting net migration

Thank you.Thank you.

http://www.unmigration.orghttp://www.unmigration.org

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