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Recent occupation concepts applied Recent occupation concepts applied to historical U.S. Census datato historical U.S. Census data

Peter B. MeyerPeter B. MeyerUS Bureau of Labor StatisticsUS Bureau of Labor Statistics

(but none of this represents official measurement or policy;(but none of this represents official measurement or policy;Views and findings are those of the author not the agency)Views and findings are those of the author not the agency)

RC33 2008, Naples, Sept 3, 2008RC33 2008, Naples, Sept 3, 2008

Outline1. Brief history of U.S. Census

occupations2. Can standardize to recent definitions?3. Issues: working wives, native

Americans, slaves, children, others

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An ideal occupation variable . . .

Would extend over a long period using the same category systemThat enables comparison over time to see causes and effects of:

Unionization Licensing Technological change And more

Examining individuals, holding occupation constant;Or within and between occupations

Can we assign current occupation concepts to past Censuses?

Efforts include occ1950, covering 1850-present (by Sobek) and occ1990, covering 1960-present (by Meyer and Osborne).

These put harmonize the occupations for those respondents listed as having occupations at the time.

But: Who was counted as having an occupation? How did that change?

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U.S. Census occupation history

(the historical process recording the data) Census starts in 1790, for political districting and taxation. Most Native Americans (Indians) were not counted.

1850: Free male respondents first asked for their “Profession, occupation, or trade” by U.S. marshals. Occupations were not categorized. 1850s: International conferences on occupation collection in Censuses

1860: All free respondents asked for occupation; household head, usually male, is counted distinctively.

1870: Slave category disappears. 1870: Classification of occupations into 338 categories. Since 1870: The category system changed every decade since then. 1880: Data collectors now political appointees not judicial aw enforcers 1902-10: Now permanent civil service bureau collects data and categorizes

into occupations. Quality improves. 1940: Switch to “labor force” definitions and concepts, de-gendered Since 1940: Relatively stable definitions and practices. Since 1970: With each new system “dual-coded” data are now available.

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Many working women did not have a recorded occupation

in 1900 My main source: Bose (2001) Many women in 1900 who would now count as

employed did not count as employed in the 1900 Census. Working on family farm (est. 16.9% of US women age 15-64) Taking in boarders; taking care of other people’s children (3.9%) Outwork, e.g. sewing at home, or running a shop (3.1%)

Her corrected figures are not far from the comparable measures available from Australia which used two similar occupation concepts

Other sources: Sobek (1997), Goldin (2001), Abel and Folbre (1983), Deacon (1985)

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More changes in boundary of who has an “occupation”

Indians – slow transition into occupation, since the early Census (for more see Snipp and Hacker)

Slaves, till 1870 – not recorded as having an occupation

Children – minimum age for recorded occupation jumps around, varying from 10 to 16 until 1910

People who were disabled, retired, students, institutionalized, or seasonal workers were less likely using post-1940 “labor force” definitions to have an occupation. (Anderson, 1980, p.24)

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In other cases, boundary did not change

Unemployed men – May report an occupation Non-citizens, border-crossers -- Household location matters; employer's location

does not matter. Working illegally or avoiding tax - Can have a Census occupation, without a

legal implication, but until 1880 Census enumerators were law enforcement officials.

Volunteers or hobbyists -- Not counted as in an occupation unless they report as self-employed

Apprentices – yes, if paid. If not paid, might be conceived of as students. Homeless; traveling; or can't locate -- Can have an occupation based on

information from others or remote location. Refused to answer -- Historically a small category. Enumerator may receive

information from others. Possibly a growing category.

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Rough magnitude of boundary changes

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0total pop in millions

pop w ith occupations(based on 41% in 1910)

w omen "missing" bytoday's definition of"occupation"

Native Americansapparently not counted

slaves

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Tentative conclusions

Can potentially do a good job matching current job categories back to 1970 using “dual-coded” data sets.

It is realistic to apply current occupation categories back to 1940

Before 1930, might adjust for adult women in home-based economy and Indians

Before 1870, occ data was not categorized and there were slaves

In 1850 maybe only 35% of population would have a Census occupation; now over 60%.

With more research, it is feasible to get better at this.

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The information coders have

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Tangential motivation:Tangential motivation:Example of standardizingExample of standardizing

In 1960 Census, “lawyers and judges” was one category Later, “lawyers” and “judges” were separate We can impute which 1960 ones are judges for

standardizing comparisons to later data. In 1970-1990 these variables predict who’s called a judge:

Employed in public sector, especially in state government Older Employed in state government High salary income Low business income Educated less than 16 years Employed at time of survey

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Information used when Information used when codingcoding

• Tens of thousands of job titles are mapped to a code in a reference book they have, if industry matches what is expected.• Some cases may be "autocoded" by software; coder checks.• Coder with two years experience should assign 94 codes per hour with 95% “accuracy”, which is checked.• Cases not meeting the rules go to “referralist” (specialist)• They have 9+ years of experience.

“what kind of work" “most important activities or duties" employer name “what kind of industry” home city and state years of education age sex before 1994, had income too

This information is availablewhen choosing “industry”and “occupation”

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Problems faced by referralists

Having to hurry Ambiguity; too little information from

respondent “computer work" for “kind of work” "water company" for industry or employer "surveyor" occupation "boot" vs "boat" in handwriting exaggeration (example: dot com businesses)

Referralists confer with each other routinely, but sometimes make different choices from one another

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Can standardize occupation Can standardize occupation categories over time that look categories over time that look

like recent ones?like recent ones? IPUMS (Matt Sobek) defined occ1950 for 1850-present Meyer and Osborne (2005) defined 1990-based classification from 1960 to present. Plan to improve, correct, and extend that.

Let us look at recent Census practices occupation variable. Census “coders” in a single location assign 3-digit industry and occupation codes They follow carefully documented practices. I interviewed four experienced ones. They work just north of Louisville, in Jefferson, Indiana

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Census year Notes; the question Census asked

1790-1840 Censuses No specific occupation question. Census collected by U.S. marshals.

1850 "Profession, occupation, or trade of each male person over 15 years of age" and "Number of slaves"

1860 "Profession, occupation, or trade of each person, male and female, over 15 years of age" and "Number of slaves" (without work details)

1870 Slave category disappears."Profession, occupation, or trade of each person, male or female"

1880Census enumerators are no longer marshals.

"Profession, occupation, or trade of each person, male or female" over age 10 and, of those, months unemployed during the census year.

Separately, months at school.

1890 ""Profession, trade, or occupation" and, of those, months unemployed during the census year

1900 Hunt (1909) refers to 1893 international standard. Bose (2001) estimated dramatic undercount of women in 1900 and presumably before.

1910 Permanent Census Bureau started 1902.

1920 Most Indians now included, but most were not included in 1910.

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Category of persons Relation to occupation categories

Indians (Native Americans)

Excluded, by Constitution; over time, most descendants have become U.S. citizens or showed up in Census data, e.g. could have occupations

SlavesCounted separately; did not have occupations 1860; then that disappears legally and as a

data category

Adult womenNot counted in 1850. Occupations dramatically undercounted, per Bose (2001),

especially if it were informal and through an ethnic enclave. By 1900 Census definition 22.5% employed; by 2000 definition, 46.% did.

Children or studentsMinimum age for an occupation has jumped around from 15 to 10 to 14 to 16. "Student"

is recorded in some years but is not by usual definition an occupation.

Retired, unemployed Sometimes these are given categories in the occupation category system

Non-citizens,border-crossers Household location matters; employer's location doesn't.

Institutionalized In prison, hospital, disabled, charity shelter. Can have an occupation but usually don't.

Working illegally or avoiding tax

Can be categorized in a Census occupation. No link to law enforcement. However before 1880, Census enumerators were law enforcement officials.

Volunteers or hobbyists Not counted as in an occupation unless they report as self-employed

Apprentices Yes, if paid. If not paid, might be conceived of as students.

Homeless; can't locate; traveling

Can have an occupation based on information from others or remote location.

Refused to answerHistorically a small category. Can have an occupation if enumerator receives

information from others (I believe). Possibly a growing category.

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Newly Imputed JudgesNewly Imputed Judges

  1960 1970 1980 1990

Lawyers 19711971 2570 5082 7603

Judges 8282 123 298 331

Using that information in a logistic regression, can assign some to new “judges” category.

Seems to be 80% accurate. In this case, can estimate a time series of earnings separately for judges and lawyers more accurately.

Let us go back to look at the earlier period to see how far it is from this data-processing world.