red flag watch / warning program for hawaii
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Red Flag Watch / Warning Program for Hawaii. Derek Wroe National Weather Service Honolulu. Red Flag Program. Purpose:1. A combination of dry fuels and weather conditions supports extreme fire danger and/or extreme fire behavior. 2. Alert land managers for the potential of - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Red Flag Watch / Warning Program for HawaiiDerek WroeNational Weather Service Honolulu
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Red Flag ProgramPurpose:1. A combination of dry fuels and weather conditions supports extreme fire danger and/or extreme fire behavior.
2. Alert land managers for the potential of widespread ignitions or control problems with existing fires, both of which could pose threat to life and property.
NWS cannot keep Red Flag event confidential
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Red Flag ProgramProducts:1. Fire Weather Watch - Issued when there is a high potential for the development of a Red Flag event. Issued 12 to 72 hrs prior to expected onset of criteria.
2. Red Flag Warning - Issued for impending or occurring Red Flag event. Denotes a high degree of confidence that weather and fuel criteria of a Red Flag event will occur in 24 hrs or less.
Forecasters can coordinate issuance of Red Flag products with local land and fire managersAll NWS watches and warnings must be available to public
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Tropical Location Criteria
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Proposed CriteriaAll three criteria met at Honolulu International Airport (HNL):- KBDI 600- Minimum RH (1 hr or more) 45 %- Wind Speed (1 hr or more) 20 mph
For mainly leeward only?- Chu (2003) confirmed highest fire danger overleeward areas
Criteria met an average of 4 days/yr from 1980-2005- Target: less than 10 days
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What is KBDI?Chosen to reflect fuel conditions by describing soil moisture deficitDesigned for the warm and humid southeastern U.S. that is somewhat similar to the climate of HawaiiDeveloped to determine availability of drought fuel loadRanges from 0 to 800:- 800 = extreme drought- 0 = saturated soilChanges daily based on observed maximum temperature and rainfall
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KBDI 0 200: Nearly all soil organic matter, duff and litter are left intact after a burn. Within minutes after fire area is smoke free.200 400: Litter and duff begin to contribute to fire intensity. Soil exposure is minimal. Smoldering with resulting smoke can carry into night.400 600: Upper range at which most understory type burning should be conducted. Most of the duff and organic layers will ignite and actively burn. Considerable soil exposure occurs. Complete consumption of all but largest dead fuels. Fuels may smolder for days with possible fire control problems.600 800: Most severe drought conditions. Many states issue burning bans. Fires will be intense and deep-burning. Most subsurface soil organic material will be consumed with great soil exposure. Live understory is part of fuel complex. Smoldering may occur for many days with fire control problems.
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Why KBDI and Why HNL?Dolling et al (2005) found a strong statistical relationship between KBDI and fire activity, both in the number of fires and total acres burnedDolling et al (2005) found that the driest leeward stations on each island can serve as reference stations to diagnose fire activity- Kekaha, Kauai- HNL, Oahu- Lahaina, Maui- Naalehu, HawaiiOnly HNL can provide high quality, real-time dataIn tropics small fluctuations in weather variables are crucial- Departures of 5 15 % from average can be considered large!Using HNL to assess Red Flag potential simplifies the forecast process and can be effective
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Mean Annual Precipitation7000 mm = 275 inches1200 mm = 47 inches 600 mm = 24 inches
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Mean Annual Precipitation9000 mm = 354 in7000 mm = 275 in1000 mm = 39 in 400 mm = 16 in
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Mean Annual Precipitation9000 mm = 354 in7000 mm = 275 in1000 mm = 39 in 400 mm = 16 in
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Mean Annual Precipitation7000 mm = 275 inches1200 mm = 47 inches 600 mm = 24 inches
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Mean HNL Conditions Criteria most likely met during fire season peakOnly small departures (5-15 %) from mean wx conditions will satisfy Red Flag criteriaProposed criteria:- KBDI 600- RH 45%- Wind 20 mph
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HNL Mean RH 1980-2005RH 45 % on 23 % of the days from 1980 to 2005
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5545
5345
5245
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4945
4845
4845
4745
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5445
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Mean RH Min
RH Min thresh
HNL Mean RH Min 1980-2005
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HNL climo stuff - ALL COLUMNS AVERAGE FOR MONTH
MONTHMAXTKBDIKBDITHRKBDITHRALTRHMINRHTHRWMAXWTHREMINTRAIN
Jan80.43116005005545162065.42.88
Feb80.73016005005345162065.62.19
Mar81.72896005005245182067.31.82
Apr83.13556005005045182068.81.23
May854316005004945172070.30.78
Jun86.95126005004845182072.40.44
Jul87.95836005004845192073.60.5
Aug88.96186005004745182074.30.5
Sep88.86406005004945172073.80.83
Oct87.26026005005145172072.71.91
Nov81.65086005005445172068.32.35
Dec81.74266005005545162067.42.87
Sheet1
Mean HNL KBDI
Threshold
Alt
HNL Mean KBDI 1980-2005
Sheet2
Mean RH Min
RH Min thresh
HNL Mean RH Min 1980-2005
Sheet3
Wmaxmean
Wthresh
HNL Mean Daily Wind Max 1980-2005
MaxTmean
MinRHmean
HNL Mean Max T and Min RH 1980-2005
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HNL Mean Max Wind 1980-2005Wind 20 mph on 22 % of the days from 1980 to 2005
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1620
1620
1820
1820
1720
1820
1920
1820
1720
1720
1720
1620
Wmaxmean
Wthresh
HNL Mean Daily Wind Max 1980-2005
Sheet1
HNL climo stuff - ALL COLUMNS AVERAGE FOR MONTH
MONTHMAXTKBDIKBDITHRKBDITHRALTRHMINRHTHRWMAXWTHREMINTRAIN
Jan80.43116005005545162065.42.88
Feb80.73016005005345162065.62.19
Mar81.72896005005245182067.31.82
Apr83.13556005005045182068.81.23
May854316005004945172070.30.78
Jun86.95126005004845182072.40.44
Jul87.95836005004845192073.60.5
Aug88.96186005004745182074.30.5
Sep88.86406005004945172073.80.83
Oct87.26026005005145172072.71.91
Nov81.65086005005445172068.32.35
Dec81.74266005005545162067.42.87
Sheet1
Mean HNL KBDI
Threshold
Alt
HNL Mean KBDI 1980-2005
Sheet2
Mean RH Min
RH Min thresh
HNL Mean RH Min 1980-2005
Sheet3
Wmaxmean
Wthresh
HNL Mean Daily Wind Max 1980-2005
MaxTmean
MinRHmean
HNL Mean Max T and Min RH 1980-2005
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Weather CriteriaBoth weather criteria (RH 45 % and wind 20 mph) satisfied on only 5 % of days from 1980 to 2005- On average, these conditions met only 17 days per year- Coupled with KBDI information about fuels, all three criteria designed to underscore potential for extreme fire behavior and/or extreme fire danger
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HNL Mean KBDIKBDI 600 typical late summer and early fall peak fire seasonKBDI 600 on 34 % of the days from 1980 to 2005
Chart1
311600500
301600500
289600500
355600500
431600500
512600500
583600500
618600500
640600500
602600500
508600500
426600500
Mean HNL KBDI
Threshold
Alt
HNL Mean KBDI 1980-2005
Sheet1
HNL climo stuff - ALL COLUMNS AVERAGE FOR MONTH
MONTHMAXTKBDIKBDITHRKBDITHRALTRHMINRHTHRWMAXWTHREMINTRAIN
Jan80.43116005005545162065.42.88
Feb80.73016005005345162065.62.19
Mar81.72896005005245182067.31.82
Apr83.13556005005045182068.81.23
May854316005004945172070.30.78
Jun86.95126005004845182072.40.44
Jul87.95836005004845192073.60.5
Aug88.96186005004745182074.30.5
Sep88.86406005004945172073.80.83
Oct87.26026005005145172072.71.91
Nov81.65086005005445172068.32.35
Dec81.74266005005545162067.42.87
Sheet1
Mean HNL KBDI
Threshold
Alt
HNL Mean KBDI 1980-2005
Sheet2
Mean RH Min
RH Min thresh
HNL Mean RH Min 1980-2005
Sheet3
Wmaxmean
Wthresh
HNL Mean Daily Wind Max 1980-2005
MaxTmean
MinRHmean
HNL Mean Max T and Min RH 1980-2005
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HNL KBDI 1980-2005Varies greatly during each year and from year-to-yearKBDI 600 represents the highest 34% of databaseKBDI 500 typical nearly 50% of the year
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567.4