reductions in scale, new technologies, and the future of integrated circuits
DESCRIPTION
These slides analyze the reasons for the large improvements in ICs over the last 50 years, the impact of these improvements on how transistors are organized on chips, and the impact of these changes on new electronic systems. Most of the improvements in ICs are due to benefits from reducing the scale of features on ICs and the relative ease of reducing these feature sizes. Second, it shows how reductions in feature size and their related increases in the number of transistors per chip have led to many discontinuities in both ICs and electronic products and thus the emergence of entrepreneurial opportunities for many firms. The former includes the emergence of memory, microprocessor, and application specific ICs while the latter includes new forms of computers and video game consoles, new generations of mobile phone systems and phones, and new forms of servers and routers. Third, these slides summarize the various challenges to continuing Moore's Law and the various alternatives to the current CMOS ICs. These slides use ideas from a forthcoming paper in California Management Review entitled "What Drives Exponential Improvements" and the slides are based on a book entitled “Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries" from Stanford University Press.TRANSCRIPT
A/Prof Jeffrey FunkDivision of Engineering and Technology Management
National University of Singapore
For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
Session Technology
1 Objectives and overview of course
2 When do new technologies become economically feasible?
3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that
better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling
4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems, big data analytics
5 MEMS and Bio-electronics
6 Nanotechnology and DNA sequencing
7 Lighting, Lasers, and Displays
8 Human-Computer Interfaces, R2R Printing
9 Superconductivity and Solar Cells
10 Deepavali, NO CLASS
This is Fourth Session of MT5009
What are the important dimensions of
performance for ICs and electronic systems?
What are the rates of improvement?
What drives these rapid rates of improvement?
Will these improvements continue?
What kinds of new electronic systems will likely
emerge from the improvements in ICs?
What does this tell us about the future?
Creating materials (and their associated
processes) that better exploit physical
phenomenon
Geometrical scaling
• Increases in scale
• Reductions in scale
Some technologies directly experience
improvements while others indirectly experience
them through improvements in “components”
Note: A summary of these ideas can be found in: 1) What Drives Exponential Improvements? California Management
Review, May 2013; 2) Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries, Stanford University Press
Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better exploit physical phenomena• Created materials with higher mobility and other
properties
Geometrical scaling• Increases in scale: larger wafers/production equipment
• Reductions in scale: small feature sizes for memory and other integrated circuits. This is most important driver of improvements for integrated circuits (ICs)
Some technologies directly experience improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in “components” • Better ICs lead to better electronic systems
Improvements in integrated circuits (ICs), i.e., Moore’s Law
What drives these improvements? Mostly geometric scaling in transistors/ICs
What kinds of new electronic systems/products have emerged from these improvements in ICs?
Will the improvements in ICs continue and what kinds of opportunities might emerge to ensure this continuity?
What kinds of new electronic systems will emerge as these improvements in ICs continue?
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
Why is the number of transistors per chip
an important dimension of performance
and cost for ICs?
Gordon Moore’s Original Handwritten Figure in 1965
concerning tradeoffs between yields and integration
Let’s look at ICs in more detail
Transistors Replaced Vacuum Tubes partly because it is
easier to make transistors smaller and cheaper
Microchips (EPROM memory)
inside a package that can be
placed on a wiring board
Integrated circuit of Atmel
Diopsis 740 System on Chip
with memory blocks, logic
and input/output pads
around the periphery
MOS and Bipolar Transistors, made on a
single substrate
Metal Oxide
Semiconductor
(MOS)
Transistor
Bipolar
TransistorL: gate
length
Junction Depth
Gate Oxide Thickness
N: phosphorus, arsenic
P: boron, gallium, indium
ICs also include resistors and capacitors
The more transistors on a chip, the more
functions it can perform
Increasing the number of transistors on a chip
requires
• Smaller feature sizes
• Larger die/chip sizes
Chips are placed on printed wiring/circuit
boards
Build up multiple layers of materials
• Single crystalline silicon
• Silicon dioxide, Poly-silicon
• Multiple layers of metal
Add impurities to some layers to make n or p layers
• Diffusion furnace
• Ion Implantation
Form patterns in each layer of materials
• Add photosensitive material
• Shine light through mask
• Etch away unneeded material
• Remove photosensitive material
Place IC in package
*Similarities exist
with LEDs,
MEMS, bio-
electronics, LCDs,
solar cells, organic
LEDs and
transistors,
batteries, and fuel
cells
Photolithography Used to Form Patterns in Layers
Width of this “line”
is one type of
feature size.
Another is thickness
What kinds of improvements in the
processes are made?
How do these improvements impact on
the performance and cost of ICs?
Improvements in integrated circuits (ICs), i.e., Moore’s Law
What drives these improvements? Mostly geometric scaling in transistors/ICs
What kinds of new electronic systems/products have emerged from these improvements in ICs?
Will the improvements in ICs continue and what kinds of opportunities might emerge to ensure this continuity?
What kinds of new electronic systems will emerge as these improvements in ICs continue?
Reducing the features (i.e., scale) on transistors leads
to improvements in performance and cost
Metal Oxide
Semiconductor
(MOS) Transistor:
gate length (L)
depends on
feature size
Bipolar Transistor:
Gate length
depends on junction
depth
L: gate length/
junction depth
Junction depth
Gate Oxide Thickness
Emitter, Base, Collector
Reductions in Feature Size, Junction Depth, and Gate Oxide
Thickness Enable Increases in Speed, Lower Power
Consumption per Transistor, and More Transistors on a Chip
Figure 2. Declining Feature Size
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Mic
rom
eter
s (M
icro
ns)
Gate Oxide
Thickness
Junction Depth
Feature length
Source: (O'Neil, 2003)
Photo/
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NAND_scaling_timeline.png
This Slide is Even More Explicit: Smaller Feature
Sizes Leads to More Transistors on Microprocessors
Source: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7373/fig_tab/nature10676_F3.html
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ieee_pilot/articles/96jproc11/jproc-MSanvido-2004319/article.html
Minimum feature size in nanometers
http://www.chipworks.com/en/technical-competitive-
analysis/resources/blog/looking-inside-samsungs-3x-nm-process-
generation/
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
Increases in Die Size (helped by lower defect densities) Also
Contributed to Increases in Number of Transistors Per Chip
Costs of most products fall as size is reduced, since for most technologies, • costs of material, equipment, factory, transportation
typically fall over long term as size is reduced
However, performance of only some technologies increases as size is reduced • placing more transistors or magnetic or optical storage
regions in a certain area can increase speed and functionality and reduce power consumption and size of final product
• combination of both increased performance and reduced costs has led to exponential improvements in many electronic components
Smaller gate lengths and thinner layers
also enable faster speeds and/or smaller
voltages (i.e., power consumption/per
transistor)• 10 volts in 1980?
• 1.8 to 2.5 volts in 1997
• 0.5 to 0.6 volts in 2012 (estimated)
Source: ITRS (International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors)
Required advances in science
• Creation of first junction transistor in 1949 by Walter Brattain, John
Bardeen, and William Shockley (Nobel Prize in 1956)
• Other advances in 1950s at Bell Labs, TI, and Fairchild
Change from germanium to silicon transistors
Diffused and planar process, which defined basic steps – mostly
unchanged since late 1950s (some changes recently)
Required better equipment
• use of processes and equipment that were borrowed from
industries such as aerospace, nuclear energy, and printing
• revitalization of Czochralski’s crystal growing approach (1917) and
combination with zone refining (1950s)
• development of many forms of new equipment such as plasma
etchers and new photolithographic equipment
Although smaller feature sizes have had the largest impact on falling transistor costs, • increases in the scale of wafers and equipment have
also contributed to a falling cost per transistor
• Similar to falling costs of chemicals as size of pipes and reaction vessels are increased
These issues are also addressed in • Session 3 in what drives improvements…..
• Session 7 on Lighting and Displays when the falling cost of LCDs is discussed
• Session 9 on solar cells when the falling costs of solar cells is discussed
Source: http://mrsec.wisc.edu/Edetc/SlideShow/slides/contents/computer.html
Larger and Smaller Scale have led to Lower Cost
Per Transistor
Source: Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near
http://www.singularity.com/charts/page58.html
http://www.singularity.com/charts/page62.html
http://www.singularity.com/charts/page60.html
T. Suzuki, “Challenges of Image-Sensor Development”, ISSCC, 2010http://www.future-fab.com/documents.asp?d_ID=4926
Changes in Scale Impacted on Cost per pixel of Camera Chips
MOSFETS: Metal
Oxide Semiconductor
Field Effect Transistors
IGBTs
(Insulated Gate Bipolar
Transistors)
Electronic components in high electrical power
systems must handle high power
• field of power electronics
Passive devices (resistors, capacitors and other
analog components) also don’t scale like low-
power transistors
• Thus costs of high-power ICs and passive devices
haven’t experienced same reductions in cost that
memory ICs and microprocessors have experienced
• MEMS and nano-technology may change this
IGBT: Insulated-gate bipolar transistor
GTO: Gate turn off thyristor
Improvements in integrated circuits (ICs), i.e., Moore’s Law
What drives these improvements? Mostly geometric scaling in transistors/ICs
What kinds of new electronic systems/products have emerged from these improvements in ICs?
Will the improvements in ICs continue and what kinds of opportunities might emerge to ensure this continuity?
What kinds of new electronic systems will emerge as these improvements in ICs continue?
Quote by one computer scientist• by the 1940s computer designers had recognized that
“architectural tricks could not lower the cost of a basic computer; low cost computing had to wait for low cost logic” and
• “much of computer architecture is unchanged since the late 1940s”
Similar levels of improvements• 9 orders of magnitude for ICs in last 50 years
• 9 orders of magnitude for computers in last 50 years
Smith, 1988. A Historical Overview of Computer Architecture. IEEE Annals of the History of
Computing 10(4), 277-303
Improvements in MIPS (Million Instructions Per Second) Per Price
Source: Koh and Magee, 2006
Improvements in Computations Per Second (Koomey et al, 2011)
Improvements in Computations per Kilo-Watt Hour (Koomey et al, 2011)
Mainframe computers – early 1950s
Mini-computers – mid-1960s
Personal computers – mid-1970s
Workstations – early 1980s
Portable computers
• Laptop - late 1980s
• Personal digital assistant – mid-1990s
• Notebook – early 2000s
• Smart phones – mid-2000s
• Tablet computer – about 2010
IBM System/360 MainframeDEC PDP-8 in 1965
IBM 5150 as of 1981 Laptop
Required cheaper and better
• electronic components
For mainframe computers it was better vacuum tubes
For subsequent discontinuities, it was better ICs
• Magnetic storage such as hard disks
• Displays (at least recent computers)
All of these computers were based on architectures
(and concepts) that have been know since 1940s
• Thus bottleneck has been electronic components,
• Better components have also enabled use of more
sophisticated software
Similar arguments be made for
• Mobile phones and other portable devices
• Servers, routers, and much of the Internet
• Video game consoles (and other simulators)
• Set-top boxes and much of cable TV systems
• Automated algorithmic trading of stocks by hedge
funds, and online universities
• To some extent, also better control over machinery,
production systems, mechanical products such as autos
Better ICs (also magnetic/optical disks) enable
new electronic (and mechanical) products and
often create entrepreneurial opportunities
Laptops MP3 Players
Calculators Video Set-top boxes E-Book Readers
Digital Games Web Browsers Digital TV
Watches Mobile Digital Cameras Smart Phones
PCs Phones PDAs Tablet Computers
Increases in the Number of Transistors Make New Forms of
Electronic Products Economically Feasible
Many of these new systems can be
considered disruptive innovations
They entered from the low-end, gradually
became better, and displaced higher end
products
Why did these low-end innovations
emerge and why did they become better? • Improvements in ICs were the sources of
improvements
• Demand played a secondary role
HDD: Hard
Disk Drives
Last Week: Higher Platter Densities Enable Higher Capacities
Areal Recording Density
of Hard Disks
Laptops MP3 Players
Calculators Video Set-top boxes E-Book Readers
Digital Games Web Browsers Digital TV
Watches Mobile Digital Cameras Smart Phones
PCs Phones PDAs Tablet Computers
This Week: Better ICs Make New Forms of Electronic
Products Economically Feasible
Improvements in integrated circuits (ICs)
What drives these improvements? Mostly
geometric scaling in transistors/ICs
What kinds of new electronic systems/products
have emerged from these improvements in ICs?
Will improvements in ICs continue and what
opportunities might emerge to ensure continuity?• Slow down in improvements
• Bottlenecks
• Medium and long term solutions
What kinds of new electronic systems will emerge
as these improvements in ICs continue?
Increases in number of transistors per chip
are slowing, according to some
• Particularly in terms of R&D effort
Cost of fabrication facility is rising
Design Costs for ICs is rising
Poor Conductivity and Dieletric Constant
High Power Consumption
Harder to find shorter wave lengths of light
for photolithographic equipment
How Does Curve Look When X-Axis is Effort
($M
)
Source: ICKnowledge, 2009
Costs of equipment are rising even as
cost of transistors are falling
TSMC invested
9.3 billion dollars
in its Fab15 300
mm wafer
manufacturing
facility which
became
operational
in 2012
Number of
steps rising!
Source: International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS), 2008
But Industry participants are still optimistic!
Increases in number of transistors per chip
are slowing, according to some
• Particularly in terms of R&D effort
Cost of fabrication facility is rising
Design Costs for ICs is rising
Poor Conductivity and Dieletric Constant
High Power Consumption
Long Wave Length of Light for
Photolithography
1,000,000
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
0
10,000,000
1,000,000
100,000
10,000
1000
100
0
Co
mp
lex
ity –
10
00
s of
log
ic t
ransi
stors
per
chip
Pro
du
ctiv
ity
–tr
ansi
stor
per
sta
ff m
on
th
(fun
ctio
n o
f C
AD
)
1980 1990 2000 2010
58% increase per year
21% increase per year
Moore’s Law Increases Importance of Development Cost and Time
Source: Rowen, 2004
One way to reuse designs is with Application Specific
ICs (ASICs) of which there are several types
Standard cell libraries - designers choose specific
designs from “library”
• Systems on Chip use existing blocks of memory, microprocessors,
and other functions to design large systems
Gate Arrays – designers choose connections between
transistors by determining metal mask
Field programmable gate arrays – designer connect
relevant transistors that are fabricated on a standard
chip
Increases in number of transistors per chip
are slowing, according to some
• Particularly in terms of R&D effort
Cost of fabrication facility is rising
Design Costs for ICs is rising
Poor Conductivity and Dieletric Constant
High Power Consumption
Long Wave Length of Light for
Photolithography
Already changed interconnect material
from aluminum to copper
And changed to higher dieletric constant
materials
But more changes are occurring….
Increases in number of transistors per chip
are slowing, according to some
• Particularly in terms of R&D effort
Cost of fabrication facility is rising
Design Costs for ICs is rising
Poor Conductivity and Dieletric Constant
High Power Consumption
Long Wave Length of Light for
Photolithography
We all know about high power
consumption of computers• Short battery life
• Heat from laptop
This high power consumption is in spite
of move from bipolar to MOS and CMOS
transistors
Move to CMOS only Temporarily Solved the Power
Consumption Problem
Moore’s Law continues to create bigger problems in power
and heat and thus opportunities for New Designs
But laptops won’t become nuclear reactors
Source: Chuck Moore, Data Processing in Exascale-Class Systems, April 27, 2011. Salishan Conference on High Speed Computing
Increases in number of transistors per chip
are slowing, according to some
• Particularly in terms of R&D effort
Cost of fabrication facility is rising
Design Costs for ICs is rising
Poor Conductivity and Dieletric Constant
High Power Consumption
Long Wave Length of Light for
Photolithography
Bottleneck in photolithographic process is wavelength of light.
Feature sizes are now smaller than wavelength of visible light
Source: http://www.soccentral.com
/results.asp?CatID=488&EntryID=30894
Must compensate with strong optical
lenses and error correction software
This is one reason for rising cost of
fabrication facilities
Light is emitted
by a plasma
Need
1) Vacuum since
air absorbs
small wave-
length light
2) stronger light
source to
speed up
processing
http://nextbigfuture.com/2013_08_04_archive.html
Representatives from EUV machine manufacturer ASML outlined a concrete plan that will put
machines into the production lines of wafer fabs. With some boosts in laser power and a few other
adjustments, the company now expects the workhorse EUV machines to be ready by 2015. That
should be just in time to pattern the tiny transistors in the industry’s 10-nanometer node, the
generation after the next generation of logic chips.
EUV machines use 13.5-nm light to draw far finer features than today’s 193-nm lithography machines
can create. But the insufficient brightness of the light source has made commercialization difficult. The
dimmer the light, the longer each wafer must be exposed, and the longer it takes to make each chip.
ASML’s goal is to eventually produce 125 wafers per hour with its first production-level machine, the
NXE:3300, which is shipping this year. At that rate, ASML expects that 250 watts of EUV light will be
required.
In February, lithography light-source maker Cymer announced that researchers there had pushed light
levels up to 55 W in one of ASML’s previous-generation machines, the “preproduction” NXE:3100. At
that level of brightness, the machine would be capable of exposing 43 wafers per hou
The latest
EUV
lithography
system
achieves
28 wafers
per hour
but needs 200
wafers per hour
for the
system to
be economical
Source:
http://nextbigfuture.com
/2014/06/extreme-
ultraviolet-lithography
-hopes.html#more
Improvements in integrated circuits
What drives these improvements? Mostly
geometric scaling in transistors/ICs
What kinds of new electronic systems/products
have emerged from these improvements in ICs?
Will improvements in ICs continue and what
kinds of opportunities might?• Medium and long term solutions
What kinds of new electronic systems will
emerge as these improvements in ICs continue?
New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a
replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your
brain does
Beyond 14nm, as we move to 10
and 7nm, a new “fin” material will be
required
probably silicon-germanium
(SiGe), or perhaps just pure
germanium.
SiGe will take us to 7nm then a new
transistor structure is needed at 5
nanometers.
FinFET creates a larger surface
area, mitigating the effects of
quantum tunneling, both Gate All
Around (GAA) FETs and vertical
tunneling FETs (TFETs), would
enable shorter gates and lower
voltages
http://nextbigfuture.com/2013_08_04_archive.html
TSV: through silicon via
TSV: Through Silicon Via
It can be cheaper to add more layers than
to make feature sizes smaller
Market for 3D ICs was $2.4 Billion in
2012, expected to grow 18% between
2012 and 2019 Source: Research and Markets,
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3d-ics-market-global-
industry-190000451.html
3D ICs Interconnect Performance Modeling and Analysis , Ph.D. Dissertation Draft
2 layers:
37% reduction
3 layers:
57% reduction
4 or 5 layers:
65% reduction
3D IC technology, Pouya Dormiani and Christopher Lucas
2 layers:
30% reduction
3 layers:
35% reduction
4 or 5 layers:
40% reduction
Source: Spring 2013 MT5009 class and Phd Dissertations
Simple stacked
(Same function)
Medium
integration
(Logic+Memory)
Multi-function
integration
(Heterogeneous)
New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a
replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your
brain does
Built from organic molecules rather than silicon Advantages
• greater flexibility
• lower manufacturing temperature (60-120° C)
• lower-cost processes such as roll-to roll printing
Disadvantages• lower mobility and switching speeds compared to silicon
• usually do not operate under inversion mode
Current Market• Circuits for Electronic paper (e.g., e-Books),
OLEDs and other displays
Future Market• Greater use of organic transistors in cases where flexible
electronics are useful
• Replacement of ICs
Huanli Dong , Chengliang Wang and Wenping Hu, High Performance Organic Semiconductors for Field-Effect
Transistor, Chemical Commununications, 2010,46, 5211-5222
http://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2010/cs/b909902f#!divAbstract
New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a
replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your
brain does
Flash Memory has Slow Read Write Speeds
http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf
http://isscc.org/doc/2013/2013_Trends.pdf
Storage elements are formed on two ferromagnetic
plates that are separated by a thin insulating layer
One of two plates is permanent magnet set to a
particular polarity, the other's field can be changed
Cell can be read by measuring its electrical resistance
with a transistor
• Due to magnetic tunnel effect, the electrical resistance of the
cell changes due to the orientation of the fields in the two plates
• A transistor switches current from a supply line through the cell
to ground
• If the two plates have the same polarity this is considered to
mean "1", while if the two plates are of opposite polarity the
resistance will be higher and this means "0"
Simplified Diagram of MRAM
As opposed to using electrons or magnetism to store
data, PCM works on the properties of chalcolgenide
glass
Heat is used to toggle between different states of
chalcolgenide glass thus allowing the storage of 1-bit
of information
• Stable at room temperature
• Melted: Amorphous state (insulator) store a ‘0’
• Upon heating: Crystalline state (conductive) store a ‘1’
Measure the resistivity/reflectivity to know if glass is
in an amorphous or conductive state
Phase Change Memory
New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a
replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your
brain does
Very high conductivities
In medium term, can be used in channel area
(under gate) in place of silicon for faster
transistors
In long term, can they be designed with
different properties (e.g., conductors,
insulators, semiconductors) so that transistors
can be built with them
Improvements in Purity of CNTs (and Increases in Density)
Source: Electronics: The road to carbon nanotube transistors, Aaron D. Franklin
Nature 498, 443–444 (27 June 2013)
IBM Says they are five times faster and will be ready around 2020 when feature lengths reach 5nm (now 14 nm)
Built on top of silicon wafersEach transistor uses six nanotubes lined
up in parallel to make a single transistorNantero has shipped samples of
nanotube based memory (NRAM)Produced in CMOS fabs (20 ns access
times)
Source: Technology Review, http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/07/ibm-says-nanotube-transistors-chips.html#more
http://nantero.com/mission.html
New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a
replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your
brain does
Graphene
Also very high conductivitiesIn short term replace silicon with graphene in channel area
In long term combine graphene with other ultra-thin materials
As of April 2013, >10 materials found and some of them can be integrated with Graphene or each other
Boron nitride (insulator) has been fabricated in one-atom sheet as has Molybdenum Sulfide• Molybdenum Sulfide is semiconductor, Boron Nitride is
insulator, Graphene is for interconnect
• Together one atom thick flash memory devices have been constructed
• More complex devices can be constructed by doping one of the layers
http://thessdreview.com/daily-news/latest-buzz/flash-memory-to-be-based-on-
2d-materials-a-single-atom-thick/
Arrays of Wires Made from
Individual Layers of Atoms
New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a
replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your
brain does
IBM created an array of 96
iron atoms that contain one
byte of magnetic information
in
“anti-ferromagnetic” states.
But making them is still a
major challenge………….
Source: John Markoff, New Storage Device Is
Very Small, at 12 Atoms
NY Times, Jan 13, 2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/science/small
er-magnetic-materials-push-boundaries-of-
nanotechnology.html
New Structures for transistors3D ICsOrganic transistors (not really a
replacement for conventional transistors)Replacements for flash memoryCarbon nanotubesGrapheneAtomic transistorsProcess data similar to the way your
brain does
This chip uses a million digital neurons
and 256 million synapses to process
information
Potential replacement for
microprocessors
Requires completely new forms of
computer architectures and software
SyNapse chip, replaces microprocessor Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/news/529691/ibm-chip-processes-data-
similar-to-the-way-your-brain-does/
This is obviously a very difficult question…….
Will all chips have 3D layers of transistors or memory
cells by 2020? How many layers of transistors or memory
cells by 2025?
Will MRAM, PCM, ReRAM, or FeRAM replace flash
memory and which one will win?
Will carbon nanotubes or graphene be widely used in
ICs by 2020?
Will ultra-thin materials be the basis of conventional ICs
by 2030?
Can mobility of organic materials be sufficiently
improved?
When might Synapse chips become widespread?
Improvements in ICs, Computers, and
Electronic Products are not over
Improvements in ICs will continue at a
rapid rate
Moore’s Law is not Over!
These improvements will enable better
computers and other electronic products
Improvements in integrated circuits (ICs)
What drives these improvements? Mostly
geometric scaling in transistors/ICs
What kinds of new electronic systems/products
have emerged from these improvements in
ICs?
Will improvements in ICs continue and what
kinds of opportunities might?
What kinds of new electronic systems will
emerge as these improvements in ICs
continue?
Improvements in ICs are and will
continue to enable news forms of
electronic systems to emerge
Some of these were mentioned in earlier
slides• But what forms of them will emerge?
• What types of hardware and software?
Moravec’s Paradox• It is easier to make computers exhibit adult (calculations) than
child (perception and mobility) behavior
• Low-level sensorimotor still require much computational resources
What does this tell us about the future of work?• Cognitive vs. manual, routine vs. non-routine
• Hair salon workers and manicurists will have work (non-routine manual)
• Accountants, writers and other white collar workers may not (cognitive routine)
Source: The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a
Time of Brilliant Technologies, Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee
Smaller, cheaper, and better computers
More applications for RFID tags
• For managing food?
Bio-metrics (finger prints, voice, iris)
Surveillance systems
Managing fish prices in Kerala
Better construction
Computer assistants for doctors
Big Data Analysis
Simultaneous localization and mappingSource: The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a
Time of Brilliant Technologies, Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee
http://www.dirtt.net/No screws, nails, snap fitschange dimensions of one part,
automatically changes dimensions on other parts through better CAD
Uses ICE software, borrowed from video games
Direct connection with manufacturingQuick installationNo wastageEasy to reconfigure designs and rooms
Computers have beaten the best chess and Jeopardy players
Computers can help doctors better diagnose patients
Computer matches medical knowledge with patient’s symptoms, medical histories with test results• formulates both a diagnosis and treatment plan
What will be impact on doctors and health care?
Sources: The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a
Time of Brilliant Technologies, Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee
Scanning systems continue to become better• Higher resolution (moving towards molecules)
• Cheaper
• Faster
Examples• Computer tomography
• positron emission tomography
• MRI (magnetic resonance imaging)
Will they improve early detection of cancer and other diseases?
Will they put doctors out of work? The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, E Brynjolfsson, A McAfee
Innovator’s Prescription: A Disruptive Solution for Health Care, C Christensen, J Grossman
The End of Medicine, A Kessler
Improvements in ICs, Computers, hard disks enable more extensive data analysis• Particle accelerators, telescopes
• DNA sequencing equipment
• other types of scientific and medical equipment
They also enable large mathematical models for predictions, rather than pursue more efficient algorithms• better translations
• better predictions of flu trends, inflation, health problems, loan defaults, rising food prices, and even social problems such as riots or terrorism
• Big Data is receiving lots of venture capital money now
Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think, Viktor Mayer-Schonberger, Kenneth Cukier
Continued improvements in performance and cost of• Computers
• Magnetic storage devices
Continued increases in data available from Internet usage
Continued increases in “big science”, telescopes, particle accelerators, DNA sequencers
Will lead to more “big data” analysis Currently one of biggest recipients of venture
capital in the U.S.
Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think, Viktor Mayer-Schonberger, Kenneth Cukier
A service that tells farmers with great precision the seeds to plant and how to cultivate them in each patch of land
Special seed drills and other devices plant the seeds as they are pulled behind tractors• Facilitated by GPS
As an aside, many farmers are resisting prescriptive planting because of concerns about who owns the data
Higher resolution camera chips
Better MEMS (micro-electronic mechanical systems)
• Smaller feature size lead to higher performance
• Current feature sizes of 0.5 to 1.0 microns for MEMS and
thus industry is like ICs were in 1980
• MEMS will probably have similar impact as ICs
We will discuss these systems throughout the
semester
• 3D scanners, printers, holographic displays
• eye-tracking devices, autonomous vehicles
• better health care and management of buildings, dams,
bridges, power plants……..
Better ICs and sensors enable better process control and better collection of data, extending the Internet to more devices
This data can improve simulation tools that are also coming from improvements in ICs
What types of hardware and software will emerge that will enable better traffic management• Traffic sensors, smart cards, better fare management• Predictive analytics with better computers • Navigation systems with better ICs and MEMS• Goal should be to dramatically reduce public and
private vehicle breakdowns and accidents
Food delivery trucks are transporting goods only
10% of the time
Logistics accounts for >10% of finished product’s
cost and about 15% of world’s GNP
We need more standardization of containers and
communication protocols for communication (e.g.,
radio tags), more sharing of trucks and warehouse
(too many in proprietary networks)
Improvements in ICs, computers, and other aspects
of the Internet support this standardization and
optimization of supply chains
Source: Science, 6 June 2014, Vol 344, Issue 6188
Wireless Access and Control of Sensors• Environmental (temperature, pressure, gas content)• Physiological (heart rate, brain wave, blood pressure)• For vehicular and human traffic and many types of
infrastructure (factories, buildings, dams, bridges, power plants)
The phone may become a major collection, analysis, and control point for data • Control and program the thermostat, lighting, and
other appliances in homes• Find buses and trains, and rent bicycles, vehicles and
other things to increase capacity utilization and reduce energy usage (e.g., sharing economy)
Waze is a mobile phone app that uses multiple
layers of data
• Digital maps, GPS
• Social, Chat, and sensor data
Waze helps people navigate with cars
• It uses data (including driving time) from users to provide
better navigation routes
• Its value increases as more people input info on accidents,
traffic jams, police speed traps, road closings, new highway
exits and entrances, cheap gas
Similar technologies can be used for trains and
buses
It will happen sometime…But people have been talking about this for
a long time…The 2014 Consumer Electronics Show says it
will happen this yearBut others are not so optimistic (The smart
home is a pipe dream, CNN)One must think carefully about the specific
applications and the many types of solutions
http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/02/technology/innovation/ces-connected-home/index.html
Better MOSFETs and other ICs enable wireless
charging
• Of electronic devices such as phones, TVs, other home
electronics
• Small loss in efficiency (if distance is small), eliminates
wires, and allows charging while moving
Better IGBTs enable high power charging
• Replacement of mechanical with electronic controls in
passenger vehicles (already occurred in aircraft and heavy
trucks)
• Wireless charging of vehicles?
More general source: Peter Huber, Mark Mills, 2006, The Bottomless Well:
The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy
http://cesa-automotive-electronics.blogspot.sg/2012/09/dual-voltage-power-supply-system-with.html
Improvements in ICs and other
components in the Internet are improving
the performance of online universities
But I’m not just talking about the
University of Phoenix!
The successful form of online universities
has probably not yet emerged
• The experiment is still underway!
The vertical integration between research
and teaching will probably disappear
This vertical disintegration may cause many
new layers to emerge within teaching
• Testing services – if one can guarantee quality,
why do you need to teach?
• Tutorial or project-based universities that rely on
massively open online courses for teaching
material
• Providers of massively open online courses,
either individuals or aggregators
ICs have experienced exponential improvements
These improvements primarily driven by
• reductions in scale, which enabled increases in the number of
transistors per chip
Increases in number of transistors per chip drove
changes in organization of transistors and created
entrepreneurial opportunities
• memory ICs and microprocessors
• ASICs and ASSPs
What types of new ICs and thus what kinds of
opportunities will emerge as number of transistors per
chip increases?
Improvements in ICs have also enabled emergence of
new forms of electronic products (and thus
opportunities)
• Computers, Mobile phones
• Telecommunication systems, Internet
What new forms of electronic products will emerge as
the improvements in ICs continue?
• Smaller computers with new forms of interfaces
• Computer assistants for doctors
• Big Data Analysis
• New forms of online universities
However, Moore’s Law may be reaching its limits and thus a new technology is needed
Three dimensional ICs
• 3D wafer level integration concept
• 3D TSV (through silicon via) silicon interposer concept
New forms of transistors/memory cells
• Magnetic random access memory
• Phase change memory
• Organic transistors and memristers
• Molecular and atomic transistors
Appendix
Improvements in Central Processing
Units for Video Game Consoles
T. Daim, et al., Identifying and forecasting the reverse salient in video game consoles: A performance gap
ratio comparative analysis, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.06.007
Improvements in Graphic Processors for Video Game Consoles
T. Daim, et al., Identifying and forecasting the reverse salient in video game consoles: A performance gap ratio comparative analysis,
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.06.007
Improvements in Video Random Access Memory (VRAM)
Speeds for Video Game Consoles
T. Daim, et al., Identifying and forecasting the reverse salient in video game consoles: A performance gap ratio comparative analysis,
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.06.007