refunding chart
TRANSCRIPT
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Quarterly Refunding Charts
U.S. Department of the TreasuryOffice of Debt Management
February 1, 2010
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Near-Term Financing Outlook
Estimated net marketable borrowing for Q2 and Q3 FY 2010
Net marketable borrowing in Q2 (January-March) is expected to be$392 billion.
Net marketable borrowing in Q3 (April-June) is expected to be
$268 billion.
These estimates do not include incremental borrowing needs that wouldresult from a potential increase in issuance under the SupplementaryFinancing Program (SFP).
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Nominal coupons
raised the ma orit of ($ billions)
Treasury Marketable FinancingQ1-FY 2010 FY 2009
October 1, 2009 - December 31, 2009 October 1, 2008 - September 30, 2009cash in the first quarter
of the fiscal year.
Supplementary
Financin Pro ram
Issued Matured
Net SOMA
Activity *
Net Cash
Raised Issued Matured
Net SOMA
Activity *
Net Cash
Raised
Bills (includes SFPs) $1,452.4 $1,651.4 $0.0 -$199.0 $6,920.5 $6,417.8 $0.0 $502.7
Nominal coupons $598.9 $153.5 $0.0 $445.5 $1,886.6 $640.7 $0.0 $1,245.9
(SFP) redemptions
accounted for themajority of the pay
down in bills during
the quarter.
TIPS $14.0 $0.0 $0.0 $14.0 $58.5 $20.8 $0.0 $37.7
Total $2,065.3 $1,804.9 $0.0 $260.5 $8,865.6 $7,079.3 $0.0 $1,786.3
* Note: Negative SOMA activity represents redemptions.
Positive SOMA activity represents additional issuance of securities, made possible by redemptions in maturing securities
with the same settlement date; these are offsetting transactions and are net cash neutral.
Large cash outflows
on February 15 include
maturing 3-, 5- and 10-
Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows (including SOMA) $ Billions
Date Maturing Coupon Securities Coupon Payments Total Outflows
February 15, 2010 57 27 84
Februar 28 2010 29 5 34
.
outflows include
maturing 3- and 5-year
notes.
March 15, 2010 15 1 16March 31, 2010 32 5 37
April 15, 2010 47 2 49
April 30, 2010 33 5 38
Ma 15, 2010 38 21 59
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May 31, 2010 32 5 37
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.
Volatility in cash150
175
$ Billions
Treasury Daily Operating Cash BalanceExcluding SFPs
FY 2007
FY 2008FY 2009
FY 2010
Note: Data through J anuary 21, 2009
Sep. 15
Dec. 15 J un. 15
balances continues to
pose challenges.
Elevated cash balances
at the end of December 50
75
100
125Apr. 15
2009 were related, in
part, to repayments ofTARP. 0
25
Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep
Key Receipt Dates1st of Month Individual withheld taxes
Key Outlay Dates
1st of each month Medicare, SSI, VA, CSRDF
3rd of each month Main Social Security payments
569.3 600600
$ billions
Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing"Net Cash"
Fiscal Quarter$ billions
Note: Includ es SOMA redemptions and SFP's.
$ billions
Note: Includ es SOMA redemptions and SFP's.
ar. , un. , ep . , ec. - orpora e axes
Jan. 15, Apr. 15, Jun. 15, Sept. 15
Individual Non-withheld Taxes
2nd/3rd/4th Wed of each month Soc. Sec. cycle payments
Feb. 15, May 15, Aug. 15, Nov. 15 Interest payment dates
Feb 1 - April 15 Individual tax refunds
et mar eta e
borrowing for Q1 FY
2010 was $260 billion
compared to $569
billion during the same191 0
527.1
481.3
343.2
392.5
260.5
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
250
300
350
400
450
500
550Bills 2-under 5 years
5-10 years 5-10 year TIPS
Over 10 years Over 10 year TIPS
B
o
r
r
o
w
i
n
g
s
B
o
r
r
o
w
i
n
g
s
.
SFP bills were paid
down by $160 billion
in Q1 FY 2010.
97.8
144.2
52.3
92.5
158.0
45.0 41.9
125.7105.2 86.8
.
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Pa
y
Pa
y
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-78.5 -92.2
-138.7
-44.6
-250
-200
-150
-250
-200
-150
I-05 II III IV I-06 II III IV I-07 II III IV I-08 II III IV I-09 II III IV I-10
ow
n
ow
n
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Inflation-adjusted600
700
800
60
70
80
GrossAnnualTIPSIssuanceandAmountOutstanding30Year(LHS)
20Year(LHS)
10Year(LHS)
5
Year
(LHS)
TIPS outstanding stood
at $568 billion at the
end of December 2009.
300
400
500
30
40
50
$billi
ons
$billi
ons
InflationAdjusted Outstanding (RHS)
0
100
200
10
20
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Calendar Year
50%
Year-over-Year Growth in Outstanding Coupo n SecuritiesSemi-Monthly
Nominals TIPS
Growth in nominal
coupons outstanding
slowed during the past
uarter.
30%
40%
Note:DatathroughDecember31,2009.
10%
20%Rate
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-10%
Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 May-07 Dec-07 J un-08 J an-09 J ul-09
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Debt Portfolio Projections
Assumptions used in the next 3 charts:
Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2011 Budget
estimates. Future residual financin needs are s read ro ortionall across
auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Excluding 30-
year TIPS, initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of December
31, 2009 and the outstanding level of bills on December 31, 2009. The initial size
or -year s ase on e average announce amoun or -year n
2009.
Projections exclude cash management bills..
Using the above assumptions, over the next 10 years:
verage ma ur y o o a ou s an ng an average ma ur y o ssuance se e oapproximately 68 and 79 months, respectively.
The percent of debt with 3 years or less to maturity is projected to decline to 53%.
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Average maturity of total
debt outstanding rose by 680
90
80
90
monthsmonthsDebt Maturity Measures
Average Maturity of Issuance 1/
Hypothetical FY*
months between March
2009 and December 2009,
from 49 months to 55
months.
50
60
70
50
60
70
20
30
40
20
30
40
Average Maturity of MarketableDebt Outstand ing 2/
1/ Quarterly dat a are actua ls through December 31, 200 9. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-qua rter av erage.2/Quarterly data are actua ls through December 31, 2009. Fiscal yea r projections are yearly dat a.
50%50%
Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding by Security
Fiscal Year
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018*Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2011 Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are
derived from hypothetical auction s izes. Excluding 30-year TIPS, initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of December 31, 2009 and the outstanding level of bills on
December 31, 2009. The initial size for 30-year TIPS is based on the average announced amount for 20-year TIPS in 2009. Projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts.
If future financing needs
were spread proportionally
following current issuance
patterns, the proportion of
debt composed of longer- 25%
30%
35%
40%
25%
30%
35%
40% Hypothetical*
increase.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
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Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 8-10 yrs Bonds TIPS
*Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2011 Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally across auctioned s ecurities and are
derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Excluding 30-year TIPS, initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of December 31, 2009 and the outstanding level of bills on
December 31, 2009. The initial size for 30-year TIPS is based on the average announced amount for 20-year TIPS in 2009. Projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts.
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65%
70%
75%
65%
70%
75%
Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 Months
Maturing in 36 Months
Hypothetical *
The percentage of debt
maturing within the
next three years is at
historical lows.
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Maturing in 24 Months
20%
25%
30%
35%
20%
25%
30%
35%
198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009 2011 2013201520172019
Maturing in 12 Months
*Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2011 Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are
derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Excluding 30-year TIPS, initial s izes are based on announced coupon amounts as of December 31, 2009 and the outstanding level of bills on
December 31, 2009. The initial size for 30-year TIPS is based on the average announced amount for 20-year TIPS in 2009. Projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts.
100
$
Billions
CouponsMaturing*
February
15,
2010
November
15,
20392YRNOTE 3YR NOTE 5YRNOTE 7YRNOTE 10YRNOTE
*Based on coupon securities outstanding as of J anuary21, 2010
Maturing 2-, 3- and 5-
year notes will add to
near-term financing
needs.60
70
80
9030YRBOND 5YR IISBOND 10YRIISNOTE 20YRIISBOND 30YRIISBOND
20
30
40
50
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3
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Jul13
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1
5
Jul15
1
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Jan
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31
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1
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Jan
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Additional Factors to Consider
The rate of decline in year-over-year corporate tax receipts slowed in Q1
FY 2010. In the past, changes in corporate tax receipts have led changes in
individual withheld and non-withheld receipts.
Marketable financing needs remain volatile due to uncertainty surrounding
projected revenues, non-marketable debt issuance and outlays related to
ongoing recovery programs.
Treasurys current securities offerings provide flexibility to address a wide
ran e of borrowin scenarios.
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FY 2010 and 2011 Deficit and Borrowing Estimates $ billionsPrimary
Dealers* CBO OMB
Primary dealers
currently estimate a
FY 2010 deficit of
$1.357 trillion,
approximately $200
, , ,FY 2011 Deficit Estimates 1,121 980 1,267
FY 2010 Deficit Range 900-1750
FY 2011 Deficit Range 750-1800
billion below the
Administrationsprojection.
ar e a e orrowng ange -
FY 2011 Marketable Borrowing Range 750-1600
Estimates as of: Jan 2010 Jan 2010 Feb 2010
* Based on Primary Dealer feedback on January 28, 2010. Deficit estimates are averages.
2,000($ billions)
Comparing Deficit Estimates fo r FY 2010 since February 2009
Recent deficit1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
OMB CBO Primary Dealers
projections have beenrelatively stable.
200
400
600
800
1,000
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0February 09 April 09 J une 09 August 09 October 09 December 09 February 10
Estimate Month
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40%
Roll ing 12-Month Growth Rates
The pace of decline in
year-over-year corporate
tax receipts has slowed. 10%
20%
30%
Corp Tax
WH Tax
NonWH Tax
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
-50%
-40%
Mar-82
Mar-83
Mar-84
Mar-85
Mar-86
Mar-87
Mar-88
Mar-89
Mar-90
Mar-91
Mar-92
Mar-93
Mar-94
Mar-95
Mar-96
Mar-97
Mar-98
Mar-99
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
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