Region 6 Progress Report –What we have heard and found

George ErickcekBrian Pittelko

W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

September 11, 2014

Progress Report

• What have we heard on the Listening Tour so far?

• Further analysis of the region– Traffic patterns– The region’s demand and supply of talent– Water

• Back to the Future• Preview of the Oct 2nd and 3rd charette

2

What have we heard?

Challenges:• Lack of funding to provide services to meet demand.

This sentiment was heard across all activities.• Lack of a skilled workforce, a growing shortage of

workers, and low wages. Interesting comment: employers underestimate the cost of turnovers and loss of quality work due to their low wages.

• A disconnect with Flint. Overall, we found that on the east side of the region, individuals looked North and South, not East and West.

3

What have we heard?

Challenges:• Lack of regional identity. The Thumb is the

thumb; St. Clair is tied to Macomb; Shiawassee is focused on Shiawassee; Flint is Flint.

• Lack of post-secondary education in the Thumb area

• Rail service and natural gas in the Thumb• Public transportation especially in rural areas

4

What have we heard?

Strengths (some surprises):• Collaboration among and within counties –

Existing partnerships and sharing resources• Colleges, education, workforce development

system• Good mix of rural, urban, suburban population –

Good communities to raise families

5

What have we heard?

Asset:I-69, I-75, I-94 Skilled workforceStrong networking Rail and bridge to CanadaColleges and education system Nice place to live and raise familyShared history with auto industry Sharing services and resourcesWater pipeline Geographic and population

diversityDiversity of businesses Some value-added activity in

agriculture Airport

6

What have we heard?

One Big Thing:• An incubator center; providing help to startups• Transportation and logistics growth and expansion

(public transportation, highways, rail, airport, water pipeline)

• Better educated and skilled workforce• More funding• Collaboration – getting over distrust and hurdles

7

Who we need to talk to

• Craig Coney, Genesee/Shiawassee Michigan Works! Inc.• Troy Napier, Baker College• Bill Kaufman, County Administrator of St. Clair• Jim Wilson, Director of Blue Water Transit• Greg Alexander, Drain Commissioner, Sandusky• Mike McCarten, St. Clair Mental Health Services • James Freed, City Manager, Port Huron• MacKenzie Price, Huron County Community Foundation• Joan Nagelkirk, Sanilac County Community Foundation• Rand Maiers, Community Foundation for St. Clair County• Ken Micklash, Tuscola County Community Foundation

8

Traffic Count Data for I-69 vs. I-94

Port Huron, St. Clair County Area

MDOT 2012 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Maps

9

Traffic count data is per day (24-hour period), travelling in both directions

10

Map of the SE Michigan area, note that the ADT counts on I-69 increase to 20-30k west of Imlay City and remain at that level all the way to Perry, in Shiawassee county

11

Traffic on I-94 is in the mid 20k’s to 40k between the I-69/I-94 interchange and Port Huron. Traffic dips to around 22k further south on I-94.

Traffic on I-69 is between 12-14k

12

The region’s employers are hiring more educated workers

Genesee

Huron

Lapeer

St. Clai

r

Sanila

c

Shiaw

assee

Tuscola

Region 6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Educational Attainment of the Workforce 25 and Older, 2012

Total employment New hires Job creation

Pct.

bach

elor

’s o

r hig

her

Source: Census QWI 2012.13

The educational attainment levels of the region’s residents is low

Genesee

Huron

Lapeer

St. Clai

r

Sanila

c

Shiaw

assee

Tuscola

Region 6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Educational Attainment of the Population 25 and Older

Total White Hispanic Black

Pct.

bach

elor

’s o

r hig

her

Source: Census ACS 2008–2012.14

In short the region is “importing” talent

Genesee

Huron

Lapeer

St. Clai

r

Sanila

c

Shiaw

assee

Tuscola

Region 6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Educational Attainment Supply and Demand

Supply Demand

Pct.

of w

orkf

orce

or p

opul

ation

Source: Census ACS 2008–2012.15

A high percentage of the region’s minority population is struggling in poverty

Genesee

Huron

Lapeer

St. Clai

r

Sanila

c

Shiaw

assee

Tuscola

Region 6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Poverty by Race/Ethnicity

Total White Hispanic Black

Pct.

of p

opul

ation

Source: Census ACS 2008–2012.16

A.L.I.C.E.Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed

• A project to examine what it costs to survive for working people in Michigan

• Unlike the federal poverty rate, the ALICE budget looks at local conditions including housing, childcare, food, transportation, healthcare, taxes, and miscellaneous expenses to build a household survival budget

17

The monthly budget and necessary income for a 2- adult, 2-child (one infant, one in childcare) family

Genesee Huron Lapeer St. Clair Sanilac Shiawassee Tuscola

Housing 646 584 798 798 587 631 584

Child care 1,210 1,059 1,188 1,196 1,196 1,100 1,075

Food 592 592 592 592 592 592 592

Transport. 681 681 805 805 681 681 681

Health care 518 518 458 458 518 518 518

Misc. 395 367 424 425 386 379 369

Taxes 308 237 401 404 284 266 243 Monthly total

4,350 4,039 4,666 4,678 4,245 4,167 4,063

Annual total 52,202 48,466 55,992 56,135 50,935 50,007 48,754

Hourly wage 26.10 24.23 28.00 28.07 25.47 25.00 24.38

Source: A.L.I.C.E. Report, http://www.unitedwayalice.org/michigan/18

A quarter of the region’s residents are just getting by financially

Genesee

Huron

Lapeer

St. Clai

r

Sanila

c

Shiaw

assee

Tuscola

Region 6

Mich

igan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

19

14

9

15 15 1714

17 16

2427

2528 27

24 2225 24

Household Income

Below Poverty A.L.I.C.E.

Pct.

of h

ouse

hold

s

Source: A.L.I.C.E. Report, http://www.unitedwayalice.org/michigan/ 19

Karegnondi Water Authority

• Started construction at Lake Huron water pumping station on June 28, 2013

• Water line is expected to be finished in 2015• Provides water to southern Sanilac Co., Lapeer

Co., and the city of Flint • 85 million gallons of water per day pumped

from Lake Huron

20

What happens in the Detroit MSA matters

Economic activity in Detroit

I-69 Corridor Thumb Area

3,000 auto assembly jobs

Employment 330 40

Personal income $31.0 million $3.7 million

3,000 management jobs

Employment 160 16

Personal income $20.0 million $2.1 million

Note: Personal income includes commuters.

22

Population and household impact of job creation in the thumb

Opening of an auto supplier creating 100 jobs

23

The Thumb 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Employment 188 196 200 201 201 201 200 199 Direct 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Indirect 88 96 100 101 101 101 100 99Personal income ($mill) 8.583 9.847 11.221 12.496 13.663 14.725 15.729 16.688Population 74 139 198 251 299 342 381 416Households (2.5 persons) 30 55 79 100 120 137 153 166

I-69 Corridor ImpactEmployment 17 18 19 19 19 18 18 19Population 5 9 12 15 18 19 20 22

Years In Operation

Source: Upjohn Institute REMI model.

Population and household impact of job creation in the I-69 corridor

Opening of an auto supplier creating 100 jobs

24

I-69 Corridor 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Employment 291 301 308 310 312 313 313 314 Direct 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Indirect 191 201 208 210 212 213 213 214Personal income ($mill) 15.663 17.391 19.566 21.683 23.596 25.425 27.168 28.858Population 120 222 312 393 467 535 595 650Households (2.5 persons) 48 89 125 157 187 214 238 260

Thumb ImpactEmployment 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5Population 2 4 6 8 9 10 11 12

Years In Operation

Source: Upjohn Institute REMI model.

The charette on October 2nd and 3rd – What to expect

• Data driven and supported–What more do you want us to explore?

• Highly interactive–Our biggest concerns are avoiding

group think and path dependency

25