regional analysis in the age of populism€¦ · regional analysis in the age of populism. auber...
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Regional Analysis in the Age of PopulismAUBER Annual Conference
Savannah, GA October 13, 2019
Mark Partridge, [email protected] State University and Ph.D. Program, Urban Studies and
Regional Science, Gran Sasso Science Institute, L’Aquila, Italy
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IntroductionMuch (but not all) of rural America has struggled
since the Great Recession’s conclusion in 2009, representing a long-run trend dating to the 1920s.
Rural American will play a future role, but many rural places are economically unsustainable. Rural areas are the primary source of environment, food, energy, other commodities, natural amenities, water, etc.
Rural lags in many ways. But trends are not always clear; e.g., for nonmetro/metro per-capita income1969-76 = .755; 1996-2003= .724; 2010-2017= .759But underlying all of this are national trends.
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5Source: New York Times
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6https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/24/business/economy/wealth-tax-rich.html
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7 Source: E-trade and BEA. https://us.etrade.com/knowledge/library/perspectives/market-happenings/us-trade-deficit-february-2019
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8https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/24/business/economy/wealth-tax-rich.html
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Introduction
9
These trends appear to have contributed to rising rural angst and even anger in some cases. This economic angst has helped spawn a rise of so-called “right-wing nationalist populist” movements with strong rural bases. Emergence of right-wing nationalist populist movements
have occurred in Europe, Brazil, Australia, India. Of course, historically, there are many examples of rural
“populism” in the U.S.:E.g., 1820s-1840s, 1870s, 1890s, 1920s-1930sAnd rural America has tilted conservative for the last 50
years.
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Introduction
10
There are other factors involved in potential rural U.S. populism.
Rural residents sometimes have an inferiority complex regarding urbanites.
Feelings that the elites don’t weigh rural concerns in decision-making.
Cultural differences and potential racial grievances. Decline of primary industries and manufacturing.All of this when rural America is a big net winner
in terms of net federal expenditures.
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Introduction
11
1) What I want to do now is some armchair political analysis to see if there is anything special about today.
2) Then I will ask if rural America’s economy is really suffering. Sort-of but past trends recently accelerated.
3) Then I will discuss one potential cause that has been floated by both conservatives and progressives (AEI): declining dynamism in the American economy that slows needed adjustments to higher-valued uses in capital and labor markets as well as spatially.
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Voting Patterns in rural, small, and large cities.
12
Voting patterns show a strong urban/rural influence as one.
The spatial patterns signify one area that strongly switched to Trump, which I will stress in my discussion of rural populism and rural economies.
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13 Source: Goetz, Partridge, Stephens (2017)
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Romney vs. Trump Vote Shares
• Romney 2012 • Nonmetro: 59.62%• Small metro: 53.81%• Large metro: 43.92%
• Romney 2012 - Trump 2016 • Nonmetro: -7.39%• Small metro: -3.09%• Large metro: 0.97%
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab
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2012 Romney Presidential Election Share, All Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only.
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2016 Trump Presidential Election Share Minus 2012 Romney Presidential Election Share, All
Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only and Trump’s share of Trump and
Clinton’s votes only.
Emerging “Populist” region
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2016 Trump Presidential Election Share Minus 2012 Romney Presidential Election Share,
Nonmetro Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only and Trump’s share of Trump and
Clinton’s votes only.
Especially Expect Rural “Populism” here
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Difference between Trump and Romney Vote Share Correlations, National
Sources: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, QCEW, LEHD QWI
Metro NonmetroDifference between Trump and Romney Vote Share vs. 2010 to 2018 Job Growth -0.1921 -0.0853
Difference between Trump and Romney Vote Share vs. 2017 New Firm Employment Share -0.1902 -0.1520
Difference between Trump and Romney Vote Share vs. 2006 to 2018 Percent Change in Job Creation
-0.0402 0.0030
Difference between Trump and Romney Vote Share vs. 2006 to 2018 Percent Change in Job Destruction
-0.1016 -0.0213
Difference between Trump and Romney Vote Share vs. 2016 Manufacturing Employment Share
0.2848 0.2003
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Rural Economic Performance
19
We now turn to rural economic structure and consider if things differ in the Trump “populist” region.
Then we examine relative rural job growth since the Great Recession. No surprise, rural has done poorly.
Rural is much more than agriculture. Relative to urban America, rural manufacturing has fared
much better.
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Rural Development has not been a failure. Though true that it will be more difficult going forward. What’s left may be particularly cranky with migration rates historically low.
Goetz, Partridge, Stephens, 2018
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U.S. Payroll Growth, selected periodsSource QCEW
2001 to 2010
2010 to 2018
2001 to 2018
United States -1.31 14.49 12.99
U.S. Metro -0.95 16.96 15.85
U.S. Nonmetro -3.19 0.85 -2.38
Today Rural/Nometro Job growth really lags
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Commodity Super Cycle
Commodity Super Cycle
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-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
Nonmetro-Metro Domestic Net Migration and Nonmetro-Metro Gross Movers from Abroad
Net domestic migration Movers from abroad
Source: U.S. Census Bureau's CPS, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-
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Decline almost everywhere.
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0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.80
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Share of U.S. Manufacturing Employment in Nonmetro Areas and Nonmetro Manufacturing
Location Quotient, 1969-2017Share of U.S. Manufacturing Employment in Nonmetro AreasNonmetro Manufacturing Location Quotient
Source: BEA, https://www.bea.gov/data/employment/employment-county-metro-and-other-
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%19
6919
7119
7319
7519
7719
7919
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
0320
0520
0720
0920
1120
1320
15
Metropolitan Non-Metropolitan US Farming Primary Job (CPS) US
Source: Farming share of total employment for Metropolitan, Non-Metropolitan, and US : Bureau of Economic Analysis; Total Full-Time and Part-Time Employment CA25 (1969 – 2000) CA25N (2001 –2015). Farming as primary job as a share of total employment: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table cpsaat01
Figure 1Percentage of Total Jobs in Farming:
1969 - 2015
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The western populist region is farm country and the eastern part was much more manufacturing.
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2010 to 2018 Percent Change in Employment, All Metro Counties
Source: QCEW
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2010 to 2018 Percent Change in Employment, Nonmetro Counties
Source: QCEW
Eastern populist region did relatively well, not so inthe Western part.
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Declining Dynamism
33
By declining dynamism since 1970s, I mean there is: 1) Less job creation and job destruction. Classic Schumpeterian
creative destruction implies that resources are then less likely to flow to higher-valued uses. (not the same thing as saying net job growth has declined—though it has).
2) Lower rates of firm births and deaths. In terms of firm births, new firms and small firms disproportionately create new net jobs for the national economy (Neumark et al., 2011; Haltiwanger et al. 2013). E.g., Low-productivity zombie firms kept alive by low interest rates.
Schumpeterian disruptive forces and creative destruction are restricted. 3) Declining migration rates or less moving to opportunity or
to more productive regions (Partridge et. al, 2012). OR people stay in struggling rural areas, becoming quite frustrated.
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Introduction
34
By declining dynamism, I mean there is: 4) Concentration of large firms with less product market
competition leading to less innovation and higher prices. 5) Declining occupational mobility due to licensing and
education requirements (Davis et al., 2012). 6) Declining labor-market fluidity: e.g., flows from
employment to unemployment; from unemployment to employment; flows from employment to out of labor force; flows from out of labor force to employment; job to job changes; interstate migration; job creation; and job destruction (Malloy et al., 2016). May be caused by factors such as non-compete contracts,
binding arbitration, nondisclosure agreements.
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Fewer opportunities to move to a better job or secure a better firm-worker match.
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Rural Economic Performance
38
So, how much of rural America’s problem is their economies are becoming relatively less dynamic?
Job creation (job openings filled) are definitely a plus. Some job destruction is necessary for “creative
destruction” to shift resources to more productive uses. Of course, too much destruction would be problematic.
This spells places that would not have many opportunities and people would be stuck in bad settings.
Does this line up in the “populist” Northeast region?
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Job Creation and Job Destruction as Percentages of Employment, Metro
Source: BDS
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
Job Creation as a Percentage of Employment, MetroJob Destruction as a Percentage of Employment, Metro
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Job Creation and Job Destruction as Percentages of Employment, Nonmetro
Source: BDS
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
Job Creation as a Percentage of Employment, NonmetroJob Destruction as a Percentage of Employment, Nometro
Rural job destruction has especially decreased over time. (also compared to metro)
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2018 Job Creation as a Percentage of Employment, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2018 used for all states but MA, ME, and SD. Q2 2018 used for MA, Q4 2017 used for ME, and Q4 2016 used for SD.
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2018 Job Creation as a Percentage of Employment, Nonmetro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2018 used for all states but MA, ME, and SD. Q2 2018 used for MA, Q4 2017 used for ME, and Q4 2016 used for SD.
Relative job growth may not be “bad” but fewer new opportunities.
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2018 Job Destruction as a Percentage of Employment, Nonmetro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2018 used for all states but MA, ME, and SD. Q2 2018 used for MA, Q4 2017 used for ME, and Q4 2016 used for SD.
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2006-2018 Percentage Change in Job Creation, Nonmetro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2006 and Q1 2018 used for all states but ME and SD. Q4 2006 and Q4 2017 used for ME. Q4 2006 and Q4 2016 used for SD. No 2006 data for MA.
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2006-2018 Percentage Change in Job Destruction, Nonmetro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2006 and Q1 2018 used for all states but ME and SD. Q4 2006 and Q4 2017 used for ME. Q4 2006 and Q4 2016 used for SD. No 2006 data for MA.
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Rural Economic Performance
46
Small and new firms are associated with faster job growth and subsequently faster future economic growth.
What are the patterns of small-firm and new-firm development?
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Small Establishment Share of Total Establishments, National <50 employees
Source: CBP
92.5
93
93.5
94
94.5
95
95.5
96
96.5
97
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
U.S. Metro U.S. Nonmetro U.S. Total
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New and Small Firm Employment Percentages, National
Source: LEHD QWI *Note: Q1 data used in all years.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%19
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
17
New Firm Employment PercentageSmall Firm Employment Percentage
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Self Employment as a Percentage of Total Employment, National
Source: BEA
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%19
69
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
U.S. Metro U.S. Nonmetro
Less rural entrepreneurship?
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Nonfarm Self Employment Income as a Share of Nonfarm Personal Income,
National
Source: BEA
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
U.S. Metro U.S. Nonmetro
Less rural entrepreneurship?
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2017 Small Firm Employment Share, Nonmetro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2016 used for SD. Small firms have 50 or fewer employees.
Fewer small firms—less entrepreneurship?
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2017 New Firm Employment Share, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2016 used for SD. New firms are less than or equal to 3 years old.
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2017 New Firm Employment Share, Nonmetro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2016 used for SD. New firms are less than or equal to 3 years old.
Less New-firm job growth, less entrepreneurship?
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Conclusions Americans are increasingly divided along political and
rural/urban lines. Some of this may related to weak national economic
performance, rising inequities, perceptions of a “rigged” system.
President Trump’s relative electoral gains were most impressive in “Northeast” nonmetro America.
Outside of manufacturing’s role in driving some of this, topline rural economic numbers are not that different.
But that region appears less dynamic in terms of less job creation, new-firm employment growth, fewer small firms, suggesting a somewhat less dynamic economy. This pattern applies more strongly in the eastern parts of the
populist region.54
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Per Capita GDP and Per Capita Income Correlations, National
Source: BEA
Metro Nonmetro
2015 per capita GDP vs. 2015 per capita personal income, unweighted
0.5523 0.5521
2015 per capita GDP vs. 2015 per capita personal income, population-weighted
0.7973 0.6040
2012-2015 %𝚫𝚫 per capita GDP vs. 2012-2015 %𝚫𝚫 per capita personal income, unweighted
0.2213 0.3017
2012-2015 %𝚫𝚫 per capita GDP vs. 2012-2015 %𝚫𝚫 per capita personal income, population-weighted
0.3490 0.3427
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58
https://thedailycpa.com/2019/01/07/what-would-a-70-tax-bracket-look-like/
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59
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60
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Population growth (%) 1990-2017 by MSA size (1993 USDA and U.S. Census Bureau MSA Definitions, 1990 population)
5.9
16.8
36.2
01
02
03
04
05
0P
op
ula
tion
gro
wth
(%
) 1
99
0-2
017
Non AdjacentAdj. to Small Metro
Adj. to Large Metro
26.2
31.633.6
39.3
30.9
01
02
03
04
05
0P
op
ula
tion
gro
wth
(%
) 1
99
0-2
017
50-100k100-250k
250k-1M1-3M
3M+
Nonmetro Areas Metro Areas
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Population growth (%) 1990-2017 by city size (2013 USDA and U.S. Census Bureau MSA Definitions, 2017 Population)
4.0
11.4
26.9
01
02
03
04
05
0P
op
ula
tion
gro
wth
(%
) 1
99
0-2
017
Non AdjacentAdj. to Small Metro
Adj. to Large Metro
41.339.2
34.638.4
41.3
01
02
03
04
05
0P
op
ula
tion
gro
wth
(%
) 1
99
0-2
017
50-100k100-250k
250k-1M1-3M
3M+
Nonmetro Areas Metro Areas
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2012 Romney Presidential Election Share, All Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only.
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2012 Romney Presidential Election Share, All Metro Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only.
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2012 Romney Presidential Election Share, Large Metro Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only.
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2012 Romney Presidential Election Share, Small Metro Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only.
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2012 Romney Presidential Election Share, Nonmetro Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only.
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2016 Trump Presidential Election Share Minus 2012 Romney Presidential Election Share, All
Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only and Trump’s share of Trump and
Clinton’s votes only.
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2016 Trump Presidential Election Share Minus 2012 Romney Presidential Election Share, All
Metro Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only and Trump’s share of Trump and
Clinton’s votes only.
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2016 Trump Presidential Election Share Minus 2012 Romney Presidential Election Share, Large
Metro Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only and Trump’s share of Trump and
Clinton’s votes only.
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2016 Trump Presidential Election Share Minus 2012 Romney Presidential Election Share, Small
Metro Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only and Trump’s share of Trump and
Clinton’s votes only.
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2016 Trump Presidential Election Share Minus 2012 Romney Presidential Election Share,
Nonmetro Counties
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab*Note: Figure contains Romney’s share of Romney and Obama’s votes only and Trump’s share of Trump and
Clinton’s votes only.
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2010 to 2018 Percent Change in Employment, All Counties
Source: QCEW
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2010 to 2018 Percent Change in Employment, Large Metro Counties
Source: QCEW
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2006-2018 Percentage Change in Job Creation, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2006 and Q1 2018 used for all states but ME and SD. Q4 2006 and Q4 2017 used for ME. Q4 2006 and Q4 2016 used for SD. No 2006 data for MA.
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2010 to 2018 Percent Change in Employment, Small Metro Counties
Source: QCEW
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2015 Per Capita GDP (in thousands of dollars), Metro Counties
Source: BEA
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2015 Per Capita GDP (in thousands of dollars), Nonmetro Counties
Source: BEA
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2017 Per Capita Income (in thousands of dollars), Metro Counties
Source: BEA
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2017 Per Capita Income (in thousands of dollars), Nonmetro Counties
Source: BEA
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Job Creation and Job Destruction as Percentages of Employment, National
Source: BDS
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
Job Creation as a Percentage of Employment, U.S. TotalJob Creation as a Percentage of Employment, MetroJob Creation as a Percentage of Employment, NonmetroJob Destruction as a Percentage of Employment, U.S. TotalJob Destruction as a Percentage of Employment, MetroJob Destruction as a Percentage of Employment, Nometro
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Percent Change in Job Creation and Job Destruction, National
Source: BDS
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Job Creation, Metro Job Creation, NonmetroJob Destruciton, Metro Job Destruction, Nonmetro
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Job Creation and Job Destruction Rates, National
Source: BDS
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
Job Creation Rate, Metro Job Creation Rate, NonmetroJob Destruction Rate, Metro Job Destruction Rate, Nonmetro
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Job Creation and Job Destruction Rates, Metro
Source: BDS
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
Job Creation Rate, Metro Job Destruction Rate, Metro
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Job Creation and Job Destruction Rates, Nonmetro
Source: BDS
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
Job Creation Rate, Nonmetro Job Destruction Rate, Nonmetro
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Percent Change in Job Creation and Job Destruction, Nonmetro
Source: BDS
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Job Creation, Nonmetro Job Destruction, Nonmetro
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2010 Job Creation as a Percentage of Employment, Nonmetro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2010 used for all states but MA, ME, and SD. Q2 2010 used for MA. Q4 2010 used for ME and SD.
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2010 Job Destruction as a Percentage of Employment, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2010 used for all states but MA, ME, and SD. Q2 2010 used for MA. Q4 2010 used for ME and SD.
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2018 Job Destruction as a Percentage of Employment, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2018 used for all states but MA, ME, and SD. Q2 2018 used for MA, Q4 2017 used for ME, and Q4 2016 used for SD.
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2006-2018 Percentage Change in Job Destruction, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2006 and Q1 2018 used for all states but ME and SD. Q4 2006 and Q4 2017 used for ME. Q4 2006 and Q4 2016 used for SD. No 2006 data for MA.
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2010 Job Destruction as a Percentage of Employment, Nonmetro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2010 used for all states but MA, ME, and SD. Q2 2010 used for MA. Q4 2010 used for ME and SD.
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2010-2018 Percentage Change in Job Creation, Nonmetro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 used for all states but MA, ME, and SD. Q2 2010 and Q2 2018 used for MA. Q4 2010 and Q4 2017 used for ME. Q4 2010 and Q4 2016 used for SD.
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2010-2018 Percentage Change in Job Destruction, Nonmetro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 used for all states but MA, ME, and SD. Q2 2010 and Q2 2018 used for MA. Q4 2010 and Q4 2017 used for ME. Q4 2010 and Q4 2016 used for SD.
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2010-2018 Percentage Change in Job Destruction, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 used for all states but MA, ME, and SD. Q2 2010 and Q2 2018 used for MA. Q4 2010 and Q4 2017 used for ME. Q4 2010 and Q4 2016 used for SD.
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2017 Small Firm Employment Share, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2016 used for SD. Small firms have 50 or fewer employees.
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Percent Change in New and Small Firm Employment, National
Source: LEHD QWI *Note: Q1 data used in all years.
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%19
94
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
New Firm Employment Small Firm Employment
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Small Firm Employment Percentages, Metro and Nonmetro
Source: CBP
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
U.S. Metro U.S. Nonmetro
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Percent Change in Small Establishment Share of Total Establishments, National
Source: CBP
-0.20%
-0.10%
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
U.S. Metro U.S. Nonmetro U.S. Total
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Wage and Salary Employment Growth, National
Source: BEA
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
U.S. Metro U.S. Nonmetro
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Self Employment Growth, National
Source: BEA
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%19
70
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
U.S. Metro U.S. Nonmetro
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2010-2017 Percentage Change in Small Firm Employment Share, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2010 and Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2010 and Q4 2016 used for SD. Small firms have 50 or fewer employees.
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2010-2017 Percentage Change in Small Firm Employment Share, Nonmetro
Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2010 and Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2010 and Q4 2016 used for SD. Small firms have 50 or fewer employees.
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2010-2017 Percentage Change in New Firm Employment Share, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2010 and Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2010 and Q4 2016 used for SD. New firms are less than or equal to 3 years old.
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2010-2017 Percentage Change in New Firm Employment Share, Nonmetro
Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2010 and Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2010 and Q4 2016 used for SD. New firms are less than or equal to 3 years old.
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2017 Self Employment Share, Metro Counties
Source: BEA
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2017 Self Employment Share, Nonmetro Counties
Source: BEA
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2006-2017 Percentage Change in Small Firm Employment Share, Nonmetro
Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2006 and Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2006 and Q4 2016 used for SD. No 2006 data for MA. Small firms have 50 or fewer employees.
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2010-2017 Percentage Change in Self Employment Share, Metro Counties
Source: BEA
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2006-2017 Percentage Change in Small Firm Employment Share, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2006 and Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2006 and Q4 2016 used for SD. No 2006 data for MA. Small firms have 50 or fewer employees.
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2010-2017 Percentage Change in Self Employment Share, Nonmetro Counties
Source: BEA
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2006-2017 Percentage Change in New Firm Employment Share, Metro Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2006 and Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2006 and Q4 2016 used for SD. No 2006 data for MA. New firms are less than or equal to 3 years old.
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2006-2017 Percentage Change in New Firm Employment Share, Nonmetro
Counties
Source: LEHD QWI Note: Q4 2006 and Q4 2017 used for all states but SD. Q4 2006 and Q4 2016 used for SD. No 2006 data for MA. New firms are less than or equal to 3 years old.