regional climate information needs for impacts and adaptation work: experiences from asia
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Regional Climate Information Needs for Impacts and Adaptation Work: Experiences from AsiaG Srinivasan
Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early warning System
WCRP Workshop on Regional Climate: Facilitating the production of climate
information and its use in impact and adaptation work, 14-16 June 2010
RIMES (RIMES) was formally established on 30 April 2009,
with the signing (at Male) of an international cooperation agreement by Cambodia, Comoros, Lao PDR, Maldives, Bangladesh, Philippines and Seychelles
Registered as Regional Organization with UN (14th September 2009)
Twenty-one (21) other countries are in various stages of consideration and approval for signing the cooperation agreement
RIMES aims to provide regional early warning services, and build capacity of its Member States in the early warning of tsunami and hydro-meteorological hazards.
Adaptation – the definition
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities
Source: ISDR, 2006
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities
Requirements for climate information
The climate information requirements are different at various levels of action
At the national level, requirements vary from ministry to ministry even if they all contribute to a common focus area (e.g. food production under the umbrella of poverty reduction)
Within the national and provincial agencies, information requirements are guided by the duration of planning horizon, and vary from the Organizational/Ministerial level to implementation level.
Communities and individual requirements - differ with livelihoods and circumstances
Global mean warming projected for three time-slabs relative to 1980-99 from the IPCC multi-model ensemble mean
(modified from Wilby et al., 2009)
Time-slabs Mean warming for three SERS emission scenarios
(A2, A1B and B1)
Likely use for community level action after suitable downscaling
2011-2030 0.66
Most suitable for use in development projects aimed at building adaptive capacities as they are of 3-5 years durationAlso useful for long-term planning of provincial government authorities for their 5-10 year plans
2046-2065 1.56As background information for macro-level long-term planning strategy
2080-2099 2.52 Mega projects
Commonly Sought information at sites
Are the heavy rainfall events on the increase?
Is there a shift in the onset of rainy season?
Are dry-spells going to be longer ?
Will the check-dams fill up this season?
Increase the level of the embankments or build new embankments?
Prepare for floods during every rainy season?
Install landside warning system with community participation?
1982-83, strong ENSO
Widespread – severe East Kalimantan
1986-87, strong ENSO
South and east – moderate
All Kalimantan
1991-94, strong ENSO
Widespread – severe Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java
1997-98, strong ENSO
Widespread – severe Sumatra, Borneo generally
2002_03 weak ENSO
South and east-Moderate
2006-07 Weak ENSO
South and East Moderate
2009- weak ENSO
South and east-Moderate
Year (s) and ENSO Drought severity and location
Fires and location
ENSO and extreme events in Indonesia
ENSO has a strong link with rainfall over most locations, therefore information on future behavior of ENSO on different time-scales and its regional manifestation is important for Asia
Indonesia Example – Agriculture Sector
West Java receives high level of rainfall and allows double (sometimes even triple) paddy cropping.
In contrast, East Java’s climate is drier and is more suitable only for crops that have lower water requirement than paddy, such as maize.
During ENSO episodes, both East and West Java are affected adversely, and the impacts manifest via lower than normal rainfall, delayed rainfall onset, or early termination of rains.
Adaptation projects in West Java – when should planning for sustained drier than normal conditions start? Current strategy is better use of seasonal forecasts
Location Rainfall season Climate Problem
Climate info needed
Decision point
Angat multi-
purpose reservoir,
NWRB, Philippines
July Aug peak: If forecast normal
Optimal use of water; avoid
flooding
Seasonal rainfall
characteristics
Release water in May to
accommodate higher inflow
Liquica District, Timor-Leste
Wet season peak: Oct. to Jan.
Planting at the wrong time
lead to heavy crop damages
Onset of rains, likelihood of false start, withdrawal, residual soil
moisture
Beginning and end of crop
season
In many instances Climate Information requirement for adaptation projects at community level are seasonal outlooks
Coastal Vulnerability and Mountainous regions
Future frequency and intensity of tropical cyclonic storms
Information on rates of Sea-level rise
Glacial Lake Outbursts related flooding
Temperature Increase during 2071-2100 for A2 and B2 Scenarios using downscaled results from PRECIS forced with ECHAM
Simulations from only one model available
No validation/evaluation of model performance, hence no idea of uncertainty
Insufficient observational data to undertake this exercise
ENSO changes not captured adequately in global models – hence local rainfall variability estimates uncertain
Ecuador, collaboration with CIIFEN
1990-2010 2010 -41 2041 - 71
Orange – 10-25%; Red – 25 – 50%
Gaps and issues to be addressed
Lack of clear assessment of user requirements
The information requirements of users across different sectors are not understood with any clarity now.
An assessment of the various information requirements across sectors is a must for generation of suitable information as different users would require climate information differing in their timescales as well as their resolutions
Climate information to cater to users’ needs
This level of customization for users is not in place currently.
There is a temporal mismatch between scenarios and the budget and planning considerations of users and decision makers.
Location specificity – this is being taken care of by regional models, but there is still need to improve on reliability (error bounds) at the spatial and temporal scales required.
Interpretation and translation of climate information for users
The translation of climate information into thresholds for incorporation by sectors is lacking – this means understanding decision environments and evolving thresholds that are location and sector specific
Climate change information should be interpreted and translated in terms of sector-specific thresholds that are jointly determined by both the climate community and sectoral users (e.g. agriculture, water management) for it to be useful to policymakers and to those who are involved in adaptation planning and implementation of options.
0.0000
100.0000
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0.0000 0.5000 1.0000 1.5000 2.0000 2.5000 3.0000 3.5000 4.0000
Total Hydrograph
Surface Response
Baseflow
Global, Regional Model Product
s
Regional
Products
Probabilistic location specific
hydro-met & geo
informationHazard
Derivatives
Risk Thresholds
ECMWF, NCEP, CMA, UKMO
RIMES/ADPC, Natl. DRR Agencies, Communities
Impact Outlooks
Risk Management tools
Managing climate risks by connecting science, institutions, and society
Need for linked action – regional modeling projects that link with impact assessment/adaptation actions
Seasonal Weather scale < 5 yrs
5 – 10 yrs 20 – 30 yrs
Impacts/Adaptation
Current Climate Variability Future Climate Change
Climate information requirement for adaptation actions
Communities and Individuals
State/Provincial level
District level
National level
Climate Risks, Disaster Risk and threats of climate change
In the context of Southeast Asia, and in most tropical climates for that matter, distinguishing between short-term (DRR/CRM) and long-term (adaptation) is difficult because at present, there is no widely accepted methodology for disassociating the impacts of climate change from “normal” climate variability in the short to medium term.
the projected impacts of climate change on agriculture tend to be amplifications (sometimes reduction) of the substantial challenges that climate variability already imposes (Hansen, et al 2007).
The same observation applies to other natural resource-base livelihoods as well.
Issue of proving “Additionality”
Climate change adaptation planning processes tend to be based on the assumption that it is possible to isolate climate change-induced risk pattern vis-à-vis natural climate variability
Anthropogenic climate change impose additional burden that makes the achievement of development gains more difficult, additional investments/ development aid are necessary.
Regional modeling to contribute to clearly assess and resolve this issue
Conclusions
Time-scales of two to three decades into future are important
Improving reliability and quantifying uncertainties at regional scales
Information requirements are specific – creating institutional linkages with modeling institutions and institutions implementing adaptation projects
Follow an integrated approach for managing risks from current climate variability and future climate change
……thank youthank you