•Regional Development Theory/models

1.Descriptive models: answering “what?” Variety.2.Positive models: answering ”why ? ”Variety.3.Normative models: answering “what ought” Variety.4.Control model: answering “ How to “ Variety.

Descriptive Models

1. Stages of Regional Development Models. (Williamson 1965)

2. Central place theory and Rank-size rule. ( Christaller 1935, Berry 1915)

3. The concentrated spatial dispersion model.

4. The core-periphery model.

Positive Models

1. Factor price equalization theorem.2. Classical Location Theory.3. Neoclassical Regional Growth Model.4. Cumulative Causation Model.5. Linkage Effect Theories and Industrial linkage

model.6. Post-keynesian Model.7. Uneven Regional Development Theory8. Multisectoral Models.

Normative Models

Optimization models (L.P.,NLP)

Control Models

Optimal control models.

• efficiency VS. equity

• spatial inequality1.Disparities among regions

2.Disparities among urban areas

-A prevailing phenomenon, its most serious in developing countries.

-primate cities. ●Regional Dualism

●North-south problem.

Questions:1.What spatial differences?

2.Why spatial differences?

3.How spatial differences?

4.How to control the growth differences?

(What policy instrument available)

What spatial Difference?

Personal income Living expense Labor productivities (wage rates) Social services (cultural & educational

facilities, medical care amecif) Public utilities( public investment) water

supply, gas and electricity supply, telephone service.

What spatial Difference?( 續 )

Job opportunities Population growth Level of education

Problem caused by serious spatial inequalities

1.Primate city (unmanageable urban center) primacy index=p1∕(p1+p2+p3+p4)

(Rondenelli) non-primacy=1∕(1+1/2+1/3+1/4)=0.48 (standard city rank size)

High primacy:0.65~1.00 primacy:0.54~0.65 (Gilbert 1984)Non primacy:0.41~0.54 Low primacy:0~0.41

Problem caused by serious spatial inequalities( 續 )

Case of Taiwan:

1966 0.482

1971 0.502

1976 0.497

1981 0.483

1986 0.489

Problem caused by serious spatial inequalities( 續 )

2.High urban unemployment and crowded slums.

3.Premature migration (urban squatters)

4.Housing shortage; insufficient supply of public facilities.

5.Environmental deterioration

6.Social cohesion and political tension

Problem caused by serious spatial inequalities( 續 )

7.Unbanlanced city system

8. 地方政治參與及自治力弱9.Human needs (human right, social wellbeing)

overall national developmentoverall national development

integration of spatial economyintegration of spatial economy

urban/regional diffusion cannot smoothly proceededurban/regional diffusion cannot smoothly proceeded

Why spatial growth differences

1.Natural resources endowment▪uneven distributed over space

2.Agricultural productivity difference among regions

▪fertility ▪labor productivity ▪locational difference in production function

Why spatial growth differences( 續 )

3.Regional economic structure

4.Transport advantage for interregional trade

5. Agglomeration economies

+_

Factor of economies

(growing inequality)

． selective migration

． capital in-flow

． public policy enhance

eco. growth

． Lake of interregional

linkage

． strong differentiation

in infras.

． Different pop. structure (dependency ratio)

Factor of diseconomies

(growing equality)

． Skilled labor disperse

． Capital being brought back

． Compensatory public policy

． Forging of linkage

． Homogenization in infras.

． more homogenous

pop. structure

6. Policies bias- preferring capital city- urban elite- implicit economic policy

Model 2 South Asia Model 1 Eastern South Asia

Model 3 China mainland

Model 4 East Asia

How to mesure spatial growth difference?

Coefficient of variance

Vuw =

Vw =

Z(Yi-Y)²/N

Y

Z(Yi-Y)²Pi/P

Y

How to mesure spatial growth difference?( 續 )

Mean square deviationMSD=1/n ∑(Yi-Y)²

Mean DeviationMD=1/n ∑ Yi-Y

Coefficient of FlorenceF=1-1/2 ∑ Xi-Xj Xi=Xi/∑Xi

GINI CoefficientG=1/2 ∑∑Xi Xj yi/xi - yj/xj

i j

How to mesure spatial growth difference?( 續 )

Theil coefficientT=1/n ∑ （ xi/μ ）㏒（ xi/μ ） = （ 1/n∑xi ㏒ xi-μ ㏒ μ ） /μ

Log coefficient of variation

∑( ㏑ xi- ㏑ x)²

x

區域差距衡量指標1.Williamson coefficient

V= Vw=

2.Mean Deviation( or weighted M.D.)M=(∑ Yi-Y /N) Mw=(∑ Yi-Y Pi/P)

∑(Yi-Y)²/N

Y

∑(Yi-Y)² Pi/P

Y

Y Y

N

2

3.GINI coefficient of concentration

GY= ΣXi - Yi N

N+1o G≦ Y 1≦

4.Arkinson Index ( 由 SWF)

I = 1 - 〔 Σ( ) ㏒ 〕Y

Yi1 - i

Yi

1 - i1

o G≦ Y 1≦

5.Kutznst Index

TDM = Σ ｜ fi - Yi ｜ TDM 不均度

6.Pareto Distribution coefficient

Pk = Pi K - a

a ＞ 1 不均 ; a ＜ 1 不均

7.Primacy Index

Po - Io =P1 + P2 + P3 + P4

P(or )

P1

P

8.Theil Index

T = 1 - ㏒ N + Σ Yi ㏒ Yi = Σ yi ㏒ N Yi

10%

8.Osbima Index

OI = Y

Y70%

Job opportunity index

1976 1986

Taiwan Area 1.00 1.00

Northern Region 1.37 1.21

Central Region 0.81 0.83

Southern Region 0.79 0.89

Eastern Region 0.49 0.74

Northern / Eastern 2.80 1.64

Year

Regions

Index = (Emp)﹝ i / (pmp)i / (Emp)﹞ ﹝ t / (pmp)t ﹞

15 1

0 5 0

-5

-10

-15

-201976 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85

Time

Northern R.

Southern R.

Central R.

Eastern R.

Regional Income Index

1976 1986 2000

Taiwan Area 100 100 100

Northern Region 141 127 111

Central Region 72 75 89

Southern Region 81 90 99

Eastern Region 61 68 84

Northern / Eastern

2.3 1.9 1.3

Year

Regions

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 Time

Northern R.

Southern R.

Central R.

Eastern R.

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

Taiwan Area

Index

Williamson coeffiecients (1965)

How to control (public policy instruments)

Regulation Incentive VS. punishment Institution infrastructure