regional foresight in germany · do not differ much from the regional foresight definition see for...

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REGIONAL FORES IGHT IN GERMANY

K e r s t i n C u h l s

T h e 4 t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f e r e n c e o n F o r e s i g h t , N I S T E P 2 0 1 1

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Mel

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Competence Centers of F raunhofer IS I

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What is regional? What is Foresight in the Regional context?

2 Cases from Germany:

FAZIT

ZIRP

Lessons Learned

Agenda

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International

National

Regional

Communal

Corporate Foresight

Cascade of Fores ight

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Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions.

Foresight arises from a convergence of trends underlying recent developments in the fields of ‘policy analysis’, ‘strategic planning’ and ‘future studies’. It brings together key agents of change and various sources of knowledge in order to develop strategic visions and anticipatory intelligence. Regional Foresight is the implementation of the five essential elements of Foresight - anticipation, participation, networking, vision and action - at a reduced territorial scale where proximity factors become determinant.

Source: FOREN/ Foresight for Regional Development Network: A Practical Guide toRegional Foresight, European Commission, 2001, Report EUR 20128 EN

What i s Reg iona l Fores ight?

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do not differ much from the regional foresight definition

See for example Georghiou, Luke et. al: The Handbook of Technology Foresight, Concepts and Practice, PRIME Series on Research and Innovation Policy, 2008

Genera l Fores ight Def in i t ions

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Fores ight ( IS I def in i t ion)

Foresight is the

structured debate

about complex futures

structured: systematic approach by applying methods of futures research, science-based, based on new theories of futures research

structured debate: interaction of relevant actors, active preparation for the future ordifferent futures, orientation towards shaping the future

complex: consideration of systemic interdependencies, holistic view

futures: open view on different paths into the future, thinking in alternatives

long- and medium-term view

no planning, but a step on the way to planning (strategic foresight)

no prediction

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different regions in Germany with Foresight approaches

Federal States, e.g. Northrine-Westphalia, Bavaria, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, NRW

with general approaches (agenda-setting)

often: Future Initiatives/ Commissions (Zukunftskommissionen), e.g. ZIRP, Bavaria, Schleswig-Holstein

Learning Region Initiatives (partly foresight method application), e.g. Lernende Regionen, Netzwerke –Brandenburg (but: financed by BMBF)

Reg ions in Germany I

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different regions in Germany with Foresight approaches

Transnational regions, e.g. Rhine – Alsace; Four Motors Initiative (FoMoFo) Baden-Württemberg; Kleines Dreieck Zittau – Bogatynia: Hrádek nad Nisou; Euroregion Neiße e.V. etc.

less Foresight, more „Standortpolitik“, strengthening the economy of the region

partly foresight methods are used

Cultural regions, e.g. Baden, Schwaben, Preußen…

„Technology Regions“, e.g. Technologieregion Karlsruhe

Reg ions in Germany I I

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FAZIT

ZIRP

Lessons Learned

Agenda

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non-profit research project for present and future information and media technology andits applications in Baden-Wuerttemberg (State Ministry of BW)

duration of the project: 4 years, Start: 2005

aims:

identification of key drivers for new markets

potential new markets

theoretical background: Regional Systems of Innovation approach (RIS)

Consortium:

MFG Stiftung Baden-Wuerttemberg (executing organisation)

Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI)

FAZ IT: a ims, members and theoret ica l background

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FAZ IT: Fores ight-Process by IS I

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Delphi approach in two rounds

with a preparation phase for the statements

Feedback of first round results in the second round: ability for experts to revise their original answers in reaction to the general opinion of the peers

specific group dynamics, anonymity

first round on paper and Internet, second only Internet

Statements/ Topics about international developments that could be relevant for BaWü

Related questions: probability of realisation, influencing and impact factors

Delphi surveys are an established tool in foresight-processes

new: topics about social aspects and technology

FAZ IT 1st De lph i survey "Man and ICT" -Methodology

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Sample: 1089 experts from science, society and industry

second round: 245 respondents

44 theses covering seven sub-fields

topics and statements were selected by literature analysis, expert interviews...

topics in the context of human beings and ICT, influences on each other

criteria: probability of realisation; impacts on society, economy; influencingfactors

time horizon until 2020

FAZ IT De lph i Survey Des ign

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work

leisure time activities

social contacts

education

health

traffic (automotive)

security

FAZ IT Subf ie lds

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Number of Part ic ipants and Response Rate

First round Second round

Addressed 1089 389

Spontaneous answers 21 % 41 %

Answers after reminder 36 % 63 %

Participants 389 245 (=22,5 % base: orginally addressed

persons)

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FAZ IT: Three Delph i Reports

available in English:www.fazit-forschung.det

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FAZ IT: Four Scenar ios

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Awareness-raising for the „driver“ demographic change

Mobilisation of different actors in the Federal State

„low-budget“ foresight

Z IRP :"Future Radar 2030" Object ives

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

40.000 20.000 20.000 40.000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Year of Birth

Age in Years

Population 2050according to Age and Sex

Datenreihen2 Datenreihen4

Men Women

More Men/ More Women

Statistisches Landesamt Rheinland-Pfalz

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

40.000 20.000 20.000 40.000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Year of Birth

Age in Years

Population 2020 according to Age and Sex

Datenreihen2 Datenreihen4

Men Women

More Men/ More Women

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Future Initiative on the Demographic Change in the Communities in Rhineland-Palatinate

1. Demographic change as a challenge to the local authorities

2. Demographic change as a challenge for the world of work

3. Generations cooperating together in demographic change and

4. New market chances in demographic change.

Z IRP :"Future Radar 2030"

1. Experttalks

2. Experttalks

Expertsurvey

3. Experttalks

Devt. mainthesesB1 2 L3

Public

L ÖCommunity

1 2 B 3 L Ö

Working world

1+2 B+3 L ÖGenerations

1+2+3 B+L Ö

II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2004 2005 2006

I

Youth shapes the Future

Market opportunities

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Topic: Municipalities

Material selection, experts

Future Team 1 Future Team 3

1. Future Team Meeting – Work on Parts of Scenarios, Clustering

Clustering and selection of Future Picturesr

Future Team 2

2. Future Team Meeting – Workshop on Future Pictures

Z IRP: Future Radar 2030 Procedures

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Written Expert Survey

ZIRP Advisory Board: Working out Lead Topics

Decision makers and the public

3. Future Team Meeting – Formulation of Measures

Z IRP: Future Radar 2030 Procedures

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All regional foresight approaches are different.

Some are like national foresights, others like company (corporate) foresight, internally organised.

Normally, the number of participants differs from national/ international level.

Stakeholders are „closer“, know each other on the regional level – but not asclose as in communal foresight or corporate foresight

Most processes aim at agenda-setting, some for prioritisation, only a few aim at„vision-building“

Methods: in practice more workshop/ Panel approaches, often SWOT approaches

But: all foresight methods possible on the regional level

Choice of methods according to objectives

Some Lessons Learned

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Thank you!

Dr. Kerstin Cuhls

[email protected]

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems andInnovation Research (ISI) Breslauer Straße 48 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany www.isi.fraunhofer.de

regional foresight in germany · do not differ much from the regional foresight definition see for...

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