Regional Growth Framework:Potential Revisions

Mark Shorett and Christy Leffall, ABAG/MTCMarch 2019 Webinar

Plan Bay Area 2050:The Next Long-Range Regional Plan

• Plan Bay Area 2050 is the Bay Area’s next long-range regional plan –

slated to officially kick off this fall and to be adopted in June 2021.

• Plan Bay Area 2050 will integrate findings from ongoing regional

initiatives, including Horizon – an ongoing planning initiative by

MTC/ABAG to prepare the Bay Area for an uncertain future.

• Today’s webinar will focus on one key preparatory activity for Plan

Bay Area 2050: developing a revised growth framework for use in the

Preferred Plan, and to shape regional-local collaboration.

2Overview

Transportation

Land Use

Economic Development

Resilience

The Current Growth FrameworkFocus Housing and Jobs in Priority Development AreasPDAs

• Voluntarily adopted by cities; planned, or being planned, for housing

• Within walking distance of frequent transit & inside an existing community

Protect Open Space in Priority Conservation AreasPCAs

• Voluntarily nominated by cities and special districts (e.g. park districts)

• Regionally significant open spaces

Overview

Perspective Paper 3:Regional Growth Strategies

• Investigated implementation of the current growth framework (PDAs & PCAs)

• Explores strategies to improve implementation of current framework and broader range of regional goals

• Available at: https://mtc.ca.gov/our-work/plans-projects/horizon/perspective-papers

4Overview

Key TakeawayWhile the current growth framework has made progress towards focusing growth and protecting open space, a more comprehensive approach is needed to address shortcomings and tackle new regional issues.

Double Down on PDAs

PDAs Plus

Expanded Footprint

Developing a Future Growth Framework:Phased Approach

5Overview

Geographies

Strategies

Implementation

2019 2020

Spring Summer Fall Winter

Key Challenge with Framework Potential Update for Plan Bay Area 2050Many PDAs do not meet program criteria for transit and local planning.

Require all PDAs to be consistent with program guidelines by 2020.

Not enough housing is being produced, particularly low- and middle-income.

Invite local jurisdictions to submit new or modified PDAs in 2019; increase regional support.

Strong local interest in nominating new Priority conservation areas (PCAs).

Invite local jurisdictions and partner agencies to submit new or modified PCAs in 2019.

The more ambitious GHG target for Plan Bay Area 2050 may be difficult to reach.

Integrate Transit Priority Areas (TPAs) into the regional growth framework.

Most PDAs face displacement risk and lackquality schools and community resources

Integrate High-Resource Areas (HRAs) into the regional growth framework.

Industrial centers are not well-integrated into the framework.

Establish the Priority Production Area (PPA) program and allow local jurisdictions to submit PPAs in 2019.

Priority areas are at risk from sea level rise, wildfires, earthquakes, and more.

Focus on strategies and guidelines to protect the final set of priority areas in the Preferred Plan.

6Challenges and Potential Updates

1a

1b

3c

3b

3a

2

PDAs

PCAs

4

New Priority Areas

Cross-Cutting

ChallengeMany PDAs do not meet the program criteria for transit and local planning.

Potential RevisionRequire all PDAs to be consistent with program guidelines by 2020.

7

1a

or or

≤20 Min BusRail Ferry

PDA PLAN

Source: ABAG/MTC; 2019 Google Transit Feed Specification

ChallengeNot enough housing is being produced, particularly low- and middle-income.

Potential RevisionInvite local jurisdictions to submit new or modified PDAs in 2019; increase regional support.

8

1b

August 2019

December 2019

Source: ABAG/MTC

Key Challenge with Framework Potential Update for Plan Bay Area 2050Many PDAs do not meet program criteria for transit and local planning.

Require all PDAs to be consistent with program guidelines by 2020.

Not enough housing is being produced, particularly low- and middle-income.

Invite local jurisdictions to submit new or modified PDAs in 2019; increase regional support.

Strong local interest exists to nominate new Priority Conservation Areas (PCAs).

Invite local jurisdictions and partner agencies to submit new or modified PCAs in 2019.

The more ambitious GHG target for Plan Bay Area 2050 may be difficult to reach.

Integrate Transit Priority Areas (TPAs) into the regional growth framework.

Most PDAs face displacement risk and lackquality schools and community resources

Integrate High-Resource Areas (HRAs) into the regional growth framework.

Industrial centers are not well-integrated into the framework.

Establish the Priority Production Area (PPA) program and allow local jurisdictions to submit PPAs in 2019.

Priority areas are at risk from sea level rise, wildfires, earthquakes, and more.

Focus on strategies and guidelines to protect the final set of priority areas in the Preferred Plan.

9Challenges and Potential Updates

1a

1b

3c

3b

3a

2

PDAs

PCAs

4

New Priority Areas

Cross-Cutting

ChallengeStrong local interest exists to nominate new Priority Conservation Areas (PCAs).

Potential RevisionInvite local jurisdictions and partner agencies to submit new or modified PCAs in 2019.

10

2

Natural Landscapes Agricultural Lands

Urban Greening

August 2019

December 2019

Regional Recreation

Key Challenge with Framework Potential Update for Plan Bay Area 2050Many PDAs do not meet program criteria for transit and local planning.

Require all PDAs to be consistent with program guidelines by 2020.

Not enough housing is being produced, particularly low- and middle-income.

Invite local jurisdictions to submit new or modified PDAs in 2019; increase regional support.

Strong local interest in nominating new Priority conservation areas (PCAs).

Invite local jurisdictions and partner agencies to submit new or modified PCAs in 2019.

Industrial land and middle-wage jobs are not well-integrated into the current framework.

Establish the Priority Production Area (PPA) program and allow local jurisdictions to submit PPAs in 2019.

The more ambitious GHG target for Plan Bay Area 2050 may be difficult to reach.

Integrate Transit Priority Areas (TPAs) into the regional growth framework.

Many PDAs face displacement risk andlack quality schools and community resources.

Integrate High-Resource Areas (HRAs) into the regional growth framework.

Priority areas are at risk from sea level rise, wildfires, earthquakes, and more.

Focus on strategies and guidelines to protect the final set of priority areas in the Preferred Plan.

11Challenges and Potential Updates

1a

1b

3c

3b

3a

2

PDAs

PCAs

4

New Priority Areas

Cross-Cutting

ChallengeIndustrial land and middle-wage jobs are not well-integrated into the current framework.

Potential RevisionEstablish the Priority Production Area (PPA) program and invite local jurisdictions to submit PPAs in 2019.

12

3a

August 2019

December 2019

ChallengeThe more ambitious GHG target for Plan Bay Area 2050 may be difficult to reach.

Potential RevisionIntegrate state-identified Transit Priority Areas (TPAs) into the regional growth framework.

13

3b

TPAsPDAsRail Transit

Per-Capita GHG ReductionTarget

GHG Performance

-15% -19%

-15% TBD

ChallengeMany PDAs face displacement riskand lack quality schools and community resources.

Potential RevisionIntegrate state-identified High Resource Areas (HRAs) into the regional growth framework.

14

3c

TPAsPDAsRail Transit

HRAs

6%of High-Resource* census blocks are in PDAs

14%of census blocks with high community stability** are in PDAs

*Based on California HCD and DOF-adopted Opportunity Mapping designations **Based upon analysis in Regional Growth Strategies Perspective Paper; high community stability is indicative of low displacement risk

15Challenges and Potential Updates

Key Challenge with Framework Potential Update for Plan Bay Area 2050Many PDAs do not meet program criteria for transit and local planning.

Require all PDAs to be consistent with program guidelines by 2020.

Not enough housing is being produced, particularly low- and middle-income.

Invite local jurisdictions to submit new or modified PDAs in 2019; increase regional support.

Strong local interest in nominating new Priority conservation areas (PCAs).

Invite local jurisdictions and partner agencies to submit new or modified PCAs in 2019.

Industrial land and middle-wage jobs are not well-integrated into the current framework.

Establish the Priority Production Area (PPA) program and allow local jurisdictions to submit PPAs in 2019.

The more ambitious GHG target for Plan Bay Area 2050 may be difficult to reach.

Integrate Transit Priority Areas (TPAs) into the regional growth framework.

Many PDAs face displacement risk andlack quality schools and community resources.

Integrate High-Resource Areas (HRAs) into the regional growth framework.

Priority areas are at risk from sea level rise, wildfires, earthquakes, and more.

Focus on strategies and guidelines to protect the final set of priority areas in the Preferred Plan.

1a

1b

3c

3b

3a

2

4

PDAs

PCAs

New Priority Areas

Cross-Cutting

ChallengePriority areas are at risk from sea level rise, wildfires, earthquakes, and more.

Potential RevisionFocus on strategies and guidelines to protect the final set of priority areas in the Preferred Plan.

16

4

Strategies

Implementation

Geographies

Source: BCDC

How Might Some or All of These Revisions Move Forward?Potential Options for Initial Discussion

17

Potential Options

18Conclusion

Focus on Strengthening Locally-Nominated Framework• Local Role: submit new PDAs, PCAs, and PPAs• Local Role: address PDAs not complying with guidelines• Regional Role: align strategies to maximize performance

while focusing growth in PDAs/PPAs

Advance New Geographies as Primary Path Forward• Regional Role: incorporate new growth areas to address

framework limitations• Regional Role: align strategies to maximize performance

while focusing growth in TPAs/HRAs

Advance a Comprehensive Growth Framework Update• Local Role: submit new PDAs, PCAs, and PPAs• Local Role: address PDAs not complying with guidelines• Regional Role: incorporate new growth areas to address

framework limitations• Regional Role: align and balance strategies for all geographies

A

B

C

Suite of Potential Revisions

1a 1b 3c3b3a2 4

1a 1b 2 4

3b3a 4

AlignPDAs

NewPDAs

New PCAs

PPAs At-Risk Zones

3a

TPAs HRAs

Potential Options

19Conclusion

Focus on Strengthening Locally-Nominated Framework• Local Role: submit new PDAs, PCAs, and PPAs• Local Role: address PDAs not complying with guidelines• Regional Role: align strategies to maximize performance

while focusing growth in PDAs/PPAs

Focus on Advancing New Geographies• Regional Role: incorporate new growth areas to address

framework limitations• Regional Role: align strategies to maximize performance

while focusing growth in TPAs/HRAs

Advance a Comprehensive Growth Framework Update• Local Role: submit new PDAs, PCAs, and PPAs• Local Role: address PDAs not complying with guidelines• Regional Role: incorporate new growth areas to address

framework limitations• Regional Role: align and balance strategies for all geographies

A

B

C

Suite of Potential Revisions

1a 1b 3c3b3a2 4

1a 1b 2 4

3b

3a

4

AlignPDAs

NewPDAs

New PCAs

PPAs TPAs HRAs At-Risk Zones

3c

Potential Options

20Conclusion

Focus on Strengthening Locally-Nominated Framework• Local Role: submit new PDAs, PCAs, and PPAs• Local Role: address PDAs not complying with guidelines• Regional Role: align strategies to maximize performance

while focusing growth in PDAs/PPAs

Focus on Advancing New Geographies• Regional Role: incorporate new growth areas to address

framework limitations• Regional Role: align strategies to maximize performance

while focusing growth in TPAs/HRAs

Advance a Comprehensive Growth Framework Update• Local Role: submit new PDAs, PCAs, and PPAs• Local Role: address PDAs not complying with guidelines• Regional Role: incorporate new growth areas to address

framework limitations• Regional Role: align and balance strategies for all geographies

A

B

C

Suite of Potential Revisions

1a 1b 3c3b3a2 4

1a 1b

3c

2 4

3b

3a

4

AlignPDAs

NewPDAs

New PCAs

At-Risk Zones

PPAs TPAs HRAs

Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2020

Align PDAs Submission from CTA and/or city/county

New PDAs Letter of interest City Council nomination

New PCAs Letter of interest Local Agency nomination

PPAs Letter of Interest City Council adoption

TPAs Finalize zones

HRAs Finalize zones

At-Risk Zones Incorporate strategies into Preferred Plan Bay Area 2050

21Conclusion

1a

1b

3c

3b

3a

2

PDAs

PCAs

4

New Priority Areas

Cross-Cutting

Questions? Comments?Contact Information:Mark Shorett – mshorett@bayareametro.govChristy Leffall – cleffall@bayareametro.gov

23Challenges and Potential Updates

Key Challenge with Framework Potential Update for Plan Bay Area 2050Many PDAs do not meet program criteria for transit and local planning.

Require all PDAs to be consistent with program guidelines by 2020.

Not enough housing is being produced, particularly low- and middle-income.

Invite local jurisdictions to submit new or modified PDAs in 2019; increase regional support.

Strong local interest in nominating new Priority conservation areas (PCAs).

Invite local jurisdictions and partner agencies to submit new or modified PCAs in 2019.

Industrial land and middle-wage jobs are not well-integrated into the current framework.

Establish the Priority Production Area (PPA) program and allow local jurisdictions to submit PPAs in 2019.

The more ambitious GHG target for Plan Bay Area 2050 may be difficult to reach.

Integrate Transit Priority Areas (TPAs) into the regional growth framework.

Many PDAs face displacement risk andlack quality schools and community resources.

Integrate High-Resource Areas (HRAs) into the regional growth framework.

Priority areas are at risk from sea level rise, wildfires, earthquakes, and more.

Focus on strategies and guidelines to protect the final set of priority areas in the Preferred Plan.

1a

1b

3c

3b

3a

2

4

PDAs

PCAs

New Priority Areas

Cross-Cutting