regional growth trends - knoxville-knox county planningmortality numbers are on the rise. •slowed...
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REGIONAL GROWTH TRENDSKNOX AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES
KNOX & SURROUNDING COUNTIESREGIONAL GROWTH TRENDS
1. CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
2. LABOR FORCE3. DEVELOPMENT
ACTIVITY4. ISSUES
CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
KNOX AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES
Knoxville and Knox County Population Change, 1940-2017
178,468
223,007
250,523
276,293
319,694335,749
382,032
432,226
461,860
111,580124,769
111,827
174,587 175,045 169,761 173,890 178,874187,347
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
Knox County KnoxvilleSources:U.S. Census Bureau, Population of Counties by Decennial Census: 1900-1990, March 27, 1995.U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 2000 and 2010.U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, 2018.
Knoxville Population Change,1970-2017
Sources:U.S. Census Bureau, Population of Counties by Decennial Census: 1900-1990, March 27, 1995.U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 2000 and 2010.U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, 2018.
174,587 175,045
169,761
173,890
178,874
187,347
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
185,000
190,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017
2000-2010 2010-2017
10%
90%
29%
71%
The City’s share of growth is increasing…
Knoxville
Knox County
Projected Population Growth, Knox County and Region, 2016-2070
957,486991,343
1,029,0041,061,966
1,091,9491,120,924
1,150,0141,180,015
1,210,9741,243,236
1,276,7711,311,351
456,132472,696
491,829509,363
526,202543,334
560,849578,740
596,903615,612
634,978654,871
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Region Knox County
Source: Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee, Knoxville - September 2017
The challenge with our changing age-distribution of the population…
Under 5 years
10 to 14 years
20 to 24 years
30 to 34 years
40 to 44 years
50 to 54 years
60 to 64 years
70 to 74 years
80 to 84 years
Knox County Population by Age, 1980
Female Male
Sources:U.S. Census Bureau, 1980, 2010 Census. UT Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.
Under 5 years
10 to 14 years
20 to 24 years
30 to 34 years
40 to 44 years
50 to 54 years
60 to 64 years
70 to 74 years
80 to 84 years
Knox County Population by Age, 2010
Female Male
Under 5 years
10 to 14 years
20 to 24 years
30 to 34 years
40 to 44 years
50 to 54 years
60 to 64 years
70 to 74 years
80 to 84 years
Knox County Population by Age, 2040
Female Male
County to County MigrationRank County State
Net In-Migration
to Knox
1 Grainger TN 526
2 Blount TN 485
3 Wilson TN 370
4 Hamilton TN 342
5 Loudon TN 330
6 Campbell TN 281
7 Leon FL 264
8 McMinn TN 230
9 Baldwin AL 224
10 Rhea TN 222
Rank County State
Net Out-Migration
from Knox
1 Anderson TN 345
2 Jefferson TN 263
3 Genesee MI 219
4 Sevier TN 212
5 Dallas TX 198
6 Hendry FL 174
7 DeKalb TN 168
8 Ottawa MI 153
9 Fulton GA 147
10 Harrison MS 140
County to County MigrationRank County State
Net In-Migration
to Knox
1 Grainger TN 526
2 Blount TN 485
3 Wilson TN 370
4 Hamilton TN 342
5 Loudon TN 330
6 Campbell TN 281
7 Leon FL 264
8 McMinn TN 230
9 Baldwin AL 224
10 Rhea TN 222
Rank County State
Net Out-Migration
from Knox
1 Anderson TN 345
2 Jefferson TN 263
3 Genesee MI 219
4 Sevier TN 212
5 Dallas TX 198
6 Hendry FL 174
7 DeKalb TN 168
8 Ottawa MI 153
9 Fulton GA 147
10 Harrison MS 140
LABOR FORCE
KNOX AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, 2017.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Agriculture, natural resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and utilities
Services
Health care
Accommodation, food, entertainment
Federal, state, local government
Knox County Employment by Sector
(% of total by year)
1970 2017 2050
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Agriculture, natural resources
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and utilities
Services
Health care
Accommodation, food, entertainment
Federal, state, local government
Regional Employment by Sector
(% of total by year)
1970 2017 2050
Top Employers in our Region
BY INDUSTRY SECTOR
1. Health care
2. Education
3. Manufacturing
10
,41
9
8,0
82
8,0
00
6,6
89
5,8
81
5,5
47
5,0
00
4,3
87
4,0
01
4,0
00
3,3
28
3,2
08
3,2
04
3,1
88
3,0
00
2,9
52
2,5
00
2,4
70
Source: Knoxville News Sentinel, January 6, 2019.
Where Knox County residents that travel 0-25 miles for their commute go to work…
1. 93% stay in Knox County
2. 5.2% go to Anderson County
3. 1.7% go to Blount County
4. 0.2% go to Sevier County
Source: US Census, American Community Survey 2006 – 2010 http://bigbytes.mobyus.com/commute.aspx
Where Knox County workers that travel 0-25 miles for their commute come from…
1. 84% reside in Knox County
2. 5% reside in Blount County
3. 3% reside in Anderson County
4. 2.3% reside in Sevier County
Source: US Census, American Community Survey 2006 – 2010 http://bigbytes.mobyus.com/commute.aspx
Where do workers live and where are the jobs?• 1 Dot = 1 Residence
• 1 Dot = 1 Worker
Where do workers live and where are the jobs?• 1 Dot = 1 Residence
• 1 Dot = 1 Worker
Our work force is becoming more educated…
8.9%
25.5%28.7%
36.9%
7.7%
24.5%
29.4%
38.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Less than highschool
High schoolgraduate
Some collegeor associate's
degree
Bachelor'sdegree or
higher
Knox County Educational Attainment by Employment Status for the Population 25 to 64 years – 2010 vs. 2017
2010 2017
Sources: US Census: Longitudinal Employer – Household Dynamics, 2015; American Community Survey, 2010, 2017
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY
KNOXVILLE & KNOX COUNTY
Post-Recession Trend
• Building activity remains lower than pre-recession levels for both residential and non-residential development.
3,622
4,467
3,858
4,1853,989
2,132
1,483
1,776
997
1,589
1,907
2,443
1,993
3,0703,188
211 204275
199307
201101 60 69 98 75 59 82 131 133
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NEW RESIDENTIAL AND NON-RESIDENTIAL UNITS, 2003-2017
Residential Non-Residential
Pre-Recession Recession / Early RecoveryRecovery / Post-
Recession
Recovery/Post-Recession total value of new construction in Knox County is…
Residential $3.08 billion
Non-Residential $1.39 billion
$4.47 billion $0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Value of New Construction in Knox County2008-2017
Inflation Adjusted ($million) Residential Inflation Adjusted ($million) Non-Residential
millions
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Value of Renovations in Knox County2008-2017
Inflation Adjusted ($million) Residential Inflation Adjusted ($million) Non-Residential
millions
Recovery / Post-Recession total value of renovations in Knox County is…
Residential $722 million
Non-Residential $1.62 billion
$2.34 billion
Single-Dwelling
1,03123%
Multi-Dwelling
3,37477%
City of Knoxville New Construction Housing Mix, 2012-2017
Single-Dwelling
5,66373%
Multi-Dwelling
2,10527%
Knox County (Unincorporated Area) New Construction Housing Mix, 2012-2017
2009201020112012201320142015201620172018
2009201020112012201320142015201620172018
ISSUES
KNOX AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES
Slower growing population…• Fewer births:
• Millennials are having fewer children or waiting longer to start a family.
• More deaths:• Baby Boomers continue to age and
mortality numbers are on the rise.
• Slowed net migration:• CBER noted that the net difference
remains positive, but the majority of the migration is happening in the Nashville metro area.
• IMPACT: Labor force, as a proportion of the population, is shrinking.
• Boyd Center of Business & Economic Research (CBER) recently updated the projected growth models for our county and region to reflect these trends.
• Visit knoxplanning.org for a news article on Local Population Projections and Growth Expectations.
Slower growing population…• Fewer births:
• Millennials are having fewer children or waiting longer to start a family.
• More deaths:• Baby Boomers continue to age and
mortality numbers are on the rise.
• Slowed net migration:• CBER noted that the net difference
remains positive, but the majority of the migration is happening in the Nashville metro area.
• IMPACT: Labor force, as a proportion of the population, is shrinking.
• Boyd Center of Business & Economic Research (CBER) recently updated the projected growth models for our county and region to reflect these trends.
• Visit knoxplanning.org for a news article on Local Population Projections and Growth Expectations.
566,175
595,787
584,406
543,334
662,902
602,218 602,851
579,272
500,000
520,000
540,000
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
640,000
660,000
680,000
2012 2013 2015 2017
2040 Projections for Knox County Population (based on yearly adjustments)
CBER2040 Population Projection
Woods & Poole2040 Population Projection
model vintage
Changing preferences of the population…
• Millennial preferences: • Moving into urban areas faster than
previous generations• Less likely to be homeowners• Varied transportation options (transit,
ridesharing, bicycling…)• Walkability, downtown energy, cultural
diversity, and social amenities of urban living.
• Recent apartment boom in the City of Knoxville confirms this trend.• Past 5-Years
• Single-family homes ¼ or 24%• Apartments ¾ or 76%
2,908
920
Apartments
Single-FamilyHomes
Wage stagnation and increasing housing costs
• Fair market rent for a one-bedroom is $694/month• To afford that, a worker would have to
earn $13.35/hr.
• Minimum wage ($7.25/hr) means a worker could afford to pay $377/month.
• A minimum wage worker must work 74 hours per week to pay for the $694/month in rent.
Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition, 2018
$- $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00
Wage Needed
Minimum Wage
Hourly Wage
$- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Wage Needed
Minimum Wage
Monthly Wage
$- $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000
Wage Needed
Minimum Wage
Annual Wage
-$6.10
-$1,057.33
-$15,080.00
The minimum wage earning population makes 54% below what is needed to afford fair-market rent.
Shortage of housing appropriate to wages…
• There is not enough housing supply for those in the lower-middle income spectrum • Lower end: -17,500 missing
• Increased competition for housing across the lower to middle income groups.
• Increased competition for housing between higher and middle income groups.• Higher incomes aren’t
spending up to 2.5 times their income on housing.
Low High
$0 $9,999 -8,717
$10,000 $19,999 -8,745
$20,000 $29,999 1,033
$30,000 $39,999 10,197
$40,000 $49,999 6,090
$50,000 $59,999 1,332
$60,000 $74,999 3,715
$75,000 $99,999 -2,859
$100,000 $149,999 -4,361
$150,000 and over -2,518
Household Income Range Deficit/Surplus
Supply
THANK YOU & QUESTIONS?Liz Albertson, AICP
Senior Planner
Knoxville-Knox County Planning
865-215-3804
Story map coming soon on
knoxplanning.org