regional housing market perspective

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Regional Housing Market Perspective HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE Formerly Meyers Group Stephen Smiley (925) 737-1110 x224 [email protected]

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Regional Housing Market Perspective. HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE Formerly Meyers Group Stephen Smiley (925) 737-1110 x224 [email protected]. WHO IS HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE?. Information : Nation’s leading provider of residential real estate information - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Regional Housing Market Perspective

Regional Housing Market Perspective

HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Formerly Meyers GroupStephen Smiley (925) 737-1110 x224 [email protected]

Page 2: Regional Housing Market Perspective

WHO IS HANLEY WOOD MARKET INTELLIGENCE?

Information: Nation’s leading provider of residential real estate information

– Covering 30 major metropolitan areas nationwide– Addressing active subdivisions and the entitlement

pipeline

Consulting: Customized analysis for residential and master planned communities

– 848 studies in 22 states in 2004– Pricing strategies, absorption studies, product

analysis and strategic planning

Page 3: Regional Housing Market Perspective
Page 4: Regional Housing Market Perspective

EXPANSION MOTIVATIONS

Increase Revenue

Expand Scale to Enhance Valuation

Geographic Diversification to Lower Risk

Product Expansion and Land Inventories

“The Closer In Markets Are Taken”

Page 5: Regional Housing Market Perspective

San Joaquin Map

Page 6: Regional Housing Market Perspective

Stanislaus Map

Page 7: Regional Housing Market Perspective

Merced Map

Page 8: Regional Housing Market Perspective

Fresno Map

Page 9: Regional Housing Market Perspective

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

*

San Diego Orange County LA/Ventura Inland Empire

Bay Area Sacramento Central Calif

NEW HOME AFFORDABILITY RATIOMajor California Markets

Note: Data is for 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage and 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 data.Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market IntelligenceNote: Data is for 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage and 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 data.Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

1st Quarter 2005 StatisticsOrange County 3.8%San Diego 6.4%LA/Ventura 14.3% Inland Empire 15.3%Bay Area 14.5%Sacramento 16.7%Central California 16.9%

1st Quarter 2005 StatisticsOrange County 3.8%San Diego 6.4%LA/Ventura 14.3% Inland Empire 15.3%Bay Area 14.5%Sacramento 16.7%Central California 16.9%

Page 10: Regional Housing Market Perspective

DETACHED MEDIAN PRICECentral Valley

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

*

$408k (+44%)221% increase from 1st Qtr 1995

Note: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market IntelligenceNote: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

Page 11: Regional Housing Market Perspective

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

*

Med

ian

Bas

e P

rice

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

Pri

ce/S

q. F

t.

Median Base Price Price Per Square Foot

NEW DET. HOME TRENDS IN PRICE & VALUE/SF Central Valley

Median Price=$407,859 (+44%)Price/SF=$182 (+5.2%)

Merced = $181k (+10.3%)San Joaquin= $200k (+7%)Stanislaus = $171k (+5.6%)

Note: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market IntelligenceNote: 2005* figures are based on 1Q05 dataSource: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

Page 12: Regional Housing Market Perspective

AVERAGE DETACHED NEW HOME PRICESCommuter Corridor/Hwy 5 & 99

January 2005

Tri-ValleyDublin $1,084, 975Livermore $1,207,301San Ramon $916,837

Central CaliforniaTracy $581,622Patterson $490,159Lathrop $461,191Los Banos $401,046Manteca $394,134 Stockton $388,076Modesto $354,209Fresno $309,518Merced $288,604

Page 13: Regional Housing Market Perspective

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

To

tal

Sale

s

Merced San Joaquin Stanislaus

SAN JOAQUIN MOST ACTIVE SUBMARKETCentral Valley

Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

San Joaquin Captures 47% of Sales

San Joaquin 53.1% in 1997

Page 14: Regional Housing Market Perspective

NEW HOME EXECUTIVE SUMMARY REPORT 1st QUARTER 2005

Price Price/sq/ft Last 4 Quarters

% Capture Current Quarter

% Capture

Merced $336,190 $181 2,164 11.4% 602 12.3%

San Joaquin $464,990 $200 4,804 25.4% 1,085 22.2%

Stanislaus $407,656 $171 3,997 21.1% 967 19.8%

Central Valley

$407,859 $182 10,965 58.0% 2,654 54.3%

Median Detached Base Total Sales (Detached & Attached)

Counties

Source: New Home Executive Summary Report, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

Page 15: Regional Housing Market Perspective

Current Median Price and New Home Sales over Past Four

Quarters

San Joaquin $464,990 4,804 sales Stanislaus $407,656 3,997 sales Merced $336,190 2,164 sales Fresno region $307,500 5,625 sales Kern County $295,750 2,320 sales

Page 16: Regional Housing Market Perspective

DET. SALES: MAJORITY NOW OVER $350KCentral Valley

0275550825

11001375165019252200

<$100K $100K-$150K

$150K-$200K

$200K-$250K

$250K-$300K

$300K-$350K

$350K-$400K

$400K-$450K

$450K-$500K

YTD Net Sales by Price Range

Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

YTD Net Sales 2004

4% Over $500K 7% Over $450K 13% Over $400K 18% Over $350K 25% Over $300K 17% Over $250K 8% Over $200K 2% Over $150K.001% Over $100K .001% under $100K

Page 17: Regional Housing Market Perspective

INVENTORY REMAINS LOWCentral Valley

Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

3Q95

2Q96

1Q97

4Q97

3Q98

2Q99

1Q00

4Q00

3Q01

2Q02

1Q03

4Q03

3Q04

0

1

2

3

4

5

Stdg. Inv. Speculative Inv. Mo. Spec. Inv.

1Q05 Stdg. Inv. 101Q05 Speculative Inv. 13Mo. Spec. Inv. 0.0

1Q05 Stdg. Inv. 101Q05 Speculative Inv. 13Mo. Spec. Inv. 0.0

Page 18: Regional Housing Market Perspective

Central ValleyFuture Supply

County Active Mapped Total San Joaquin 3,357 19,242

22,599 Stanislaus 3,808 7,583

11,391 Merced 2,993 8,435 11,428

Projected Supply (Based on 2004 Sales) San Joaquin 4.17 years (5,414 sales/yr) Stanislaus 2.81 years (4,084 sales/yr) Merced 5.43 years (2,103 sales/yr)

Page 19: Regional Housing Market Perspective

RESALES HIT NEW RECORD IN 2004Central CA

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2004 - 56,026 Sales2004 - 56,026 Sales

Source: Meyers Market Monitor, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

Page 20: Regional Housing Market Perspective

2004 TOP BUILDERSCENTRAL VALLEY

Builder Sales Market Share # of Projects

KB Home 741 6.4% 15

California Homes 726 6.3% 20

Ranchwood Homes 650 5.6% 12

Meritage Homes 591 5.1% 10

Woodside Homes 582 5.0% 10

Forecast Homes 507 4.4% 13

Kimball Hill Homes 419 3.6% 7

Morrison Homes 401 3.5% 9

Dunmore Homes 371 3.2% 8

Ryland Homes 336 2.9% 7

Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

Page 21: Regional Housing Market Perspective

1Q05 TOP BUILDERSCENTRAL VALLEY

Builder Sales Market Share # of Projects

KB Home 210 7.9% 8

Ranchwood Homes 200 7.5% 13

Kimball Hill Homes 150 5.7% 6

California Homes 147 5.5% 8

Woodside Homes 119 4.5% 7

Meritage Homes 116 4.4% 7

Forecast Homes 87 3.3% 4

Morrison Homes 87 3.3% 8

Ryland Homes 80 3.0% 4

JKB Homes 78 2.9% 4

Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

Page 22: Regional Housing Market Perspective

2004 TOP BUILDERSFRESNO MSA

Builder Sales Market Share # of Projects

Centex Homes 538 11.0% 22

Cambridge-Lennar 476 9.7% 17

Wathen/Castanos 455 9.3% 6

Wilson Homes 391 8.0% 5

Granville Homes 323 6.6% 10

McMillin Homes 303 6.2% 8

Ennis Homes 298 6.1% 14

Bonadelle Dev 234 4.8% 5

Smee Builders 186 3.8% 4

McCaffrey Group 175 3.6% 6

Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

Page 23: Regional Housing Market Perspective

1Q05 TOP BUILDERSFRESNO MSA

Builder Sales Market Share # of Projects

Centex Homes 235 14.1% 12

Cambridge-Lennar 190 11.4% 8

Ennis Homes 100 6.0% 8

Wathen/Castanos 99 6.0% 3

Granville Homes 91 5.5% 6

McMillin Companies 78 4.7% 5

McCaffrey Group 62 3.7% 2

McMillin Homes 55 3.3% 3

Smee Builders, Inc. 55 3.3% 3

Wilson Homes 53 3.2% 4

Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence

Page 24: Regional Housing Market Perspective

News and Notes from Central Valley:

In the entire Central California region, builders had detached net sales of 18,508 homes through 2004, representing an increase of 3.5% over 2003.

The detached average prices in Central California rose 32% from 2003 to $369,845. The highest increases were found in Central Valley were new homes commanded an average price of $409,488. By comparison, the Kern County submarket base prices increased to $298,452, followed by the Fresno market which increased to $305,661.

Central Valley with 163 projects had 93% of its sales occurring in homes priced at over $300,000.

Page 25: Regional Housing Market Perspective

GOING FORWARD Look for additional product in Mountain House,

Lathrop, etc. Growth control in Tracy, etc. Merced/Madera will continue to expand. Lot prices continue to increase has more builders look

towards the area to expand. The Bay Area will always impact the market, however,

local valley move-up buyers now a major market. Due to increased equity and low interest rates.

Price points increasing. Tracy/Lathrop towards the high $500,000’s, other areas into the mid $400,000’s.

Look for more slow growth measures to come to a vote over the next few years

Markets expanding south of Fresno, communities such as Selma, Sanger, Reedley, etc

Bay Area/Sacramento builders need to keep pipeline filled.

Page 26: Regional Housing Market Perspective

WHERE CAN WE FIND CHEAP LAND?