regional impacts of climate change on forests and bird communities stephen matthews 1,2, louis...
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REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FORESTS AND BIRD COMMUNITIES
Stephen Matthews1,2, Louis Iverson2,Anantha Prasad2, Matthew Peters2
1School of Environment and Natural Resources
Ohio State University2USFS Northern Research Station
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Today's topic
Climate is changing and species are responding
Conservation and management strategies that ignore these change will likely fail (Lawler et al. 2009)
How can we begin to integrate climate change impacts into complicated realm of conservation
Must address in stages and build our understanding Building broad-scale models is a logical
start Working with managers to translate results
to “on the ground realities”
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Eleven indicators that the climate is changing
State of the climate 2009, NOAA
Land temp
Sea temp
Sea level
Snow cover
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Vertebrates: phenological responses to a changing climate
• Amphibians • Calling 10 -13 days
earlier for half of species from ~1912 to 1990 Gibbs and Breisch 2001
• Birds• Early arrival Beaumont et al. 2006
• Hatching earlier Both and Visser 2005, GCB, Fig 4
Such shifts can lead to mismatches in timing• Reviewed in Root et al. 2005
Wood frog = 13 days
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Wildlife distribution shifts linked to climate change
Distributional shifts Mammals:
Southern species increase and northern species decline, southern flying squirrel N 225 km since 1880 (Myers et al. 2009, GCB, Fig 3)
Birds: winter range northern
boundary shift 1.48 km/yrSorte and Thompson 2007
breeding range also show northward trend 2.35 km/yr
Hitch and Leberg, 2006
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Future effects: Highly tied to the level of CO2 emissions
??
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Rising Temperatures in NE. US (annual average)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
tem
pe
ratu
re c
ha
ng
e (
o F)
observationshigher emissionslower emissions
Higher: 6.5-12.5oF
Lower:3.5-6.5oFLower:3.5-6.5oF
Large difference between High and Low emissions!
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Expected growing season changes(for northern Wisconsin)
Growing season temperature higher and not much change in precipitation = more physiological stress on biota
PCM Lo +2 C
HAD Hi +8 C (14F)
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Challenges of modeling species impacts of climate change
Future climate uncertainty GCM variations Human-produced levels of CO2 uncertain
Species likely to respond individually Biology not that well-known for many species
Model validation far into future not possible
Bottom line: we need to incorporate different approaches to quantify and “whittle away” at uncertainties to develop ecologically informed projections – modeling is a key tool to do this
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• Tree abundance
• Bird abundance
• Climate•
Environment
• Forest density
• Species traits
Data
DISTRIB model
Species habitat prediction
Tree &Bird
Atlases
ModFacs• Biological
factors• Disturbance
factors• Model
uncertainty
SHIFT modelSpecies
colonization probabilities
Potential migrationby 2100
DISTRIB +
SHIFT
Scoring systemfor tree species
DECISIONSUPPORTFRAMEWO
RK
• Management guidelines
• Implications & tools
Current and future
species manageme
nt
Multi-stage modelling schemeIverson et al. 2011, Ecosystems
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The role of climate in shaping vertebrate distributions
Root 1988 Currie 1991
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But there is also a strong habitat
component for most species
Therefore we use climate and individual tree species to build our 147 bird models
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Important to note when interpreting these models!
The models are predicting potential suitable habitat by year 2100 – not where the species will be.
The DISTRIB model does not account for biotic interactions, other human or natural disturbances.
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Climate ChangeTree & Bird Atlas
http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas
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Prothonotary Warbler
Examples of species with projected habitat increases
Brown-headed Nuthatch
http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas
Emissions scenariosLow High
?
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Black-throated Blue Warbler
Black-capped Chickadee
Emissions scenariosLow High
?
Examples of species with projected habitat decreases
http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas
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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
PC
Mlo
AV
Glo
AV
Ghi
Hadhi
Spe
cies
> 2
1.2 - 2
0.9 - 1.1
0.5 - 0.9
< 0.5
Incidence change (Ratio)
General trends of all 147 species across the eastern US
Km (sd)
PCMlo 109 (64.3)
Avglo 142 (88.9)
Avghi 210 (139.5)
Hadhi 212 (149.9)
Mean Center Potential Movement
Matthews et al. 2011 Ecography
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The Chicago ecosystem assessment provides one example of these data being summarized regionally to focus the results (Hellmann et al. 2010, J. Great Lakes Res.)
Habitat Changes:Under high emissions • 130 species
changes >=10%• With 76 declining• With 54 increasing
Under low emission• 116 species
changes >= 10%• 64 declining• 52 increasing
Summer tanager
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Are these data being used??
The Goal: Identify strategies and approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigationBridge the gap between
scales of prediction management activities on National Forests interactions with the greater community
Swanston et al. 2011
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Sugar Maple
?Low
High
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Modifying factors Many other factors (biological and disturbance)
come in to play to determine more likely outcomes We rate biological (n=9) and disturbance (n=12)
characteristics for positive or negative impacts Goal was to evaluate more realistic outcomes at
regional and local levels The results from the multi-criteria framework can
be applied to the results present today
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Red Maple: • Projected habitat
declines • Characteristics suggest
high adaptability
Black Oak:• Projected habitat
increases• Positive ModFac profile
suggests it may be able to persist in harsh areas
Balsam Fir: • Projected habitat
declines• Negative ModFac• All metrics suggest it
will likely face severe limits in eastern US
Increasin
g Adaptability t
o Clim
ate Change?
Matthews et al. 2011, For. Ecol. Manag.
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Potential Changes for Tree Species The “Model Forest” Project
Evaluated 73 species from the region Put in to 8 classes of impacts
Class 1: extirpated (1 species) Class 2: large decrease (12 species) Class 3: small decrease (6 species) Class 4: no change (6 species) Class 5: small increase (4 species) Class 6: large increase (17 species) Class 7: new entry-high and low emissions (11 species) Class 8: new entry-high emissions (16 species)
Score each species for modification factors to help managers interpret potential impacts and suggest adaptation strategies
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(Losers)
Class 1 Class 2 Class 3
(Stayers)
Class 4
(Gainers)
Class 5
Class 6
Class 7
Class 8
(New Migrants)
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Large Decreasers (Cl. 2)
Better
Worse
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species habitat totalPCMlo(mild)
Hadhi(harsh)
balsam fir 4.8 -3.6 -4.4aspen 16.8 -8.2 -14.3paper birch 6 -3.3 -5.4jack pine 3.1 -0.8 -1.5white and red pine 4.7 0 -2.9all oak 10.5 6.8 11.3northern hardwood 17 -3.1 -10
Overall habitat change for the 7 major species groups in N Wisconsin by GCM/emission
% Change in Habitat
CurrentHabitat
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Ecosystem Vulnerabilities
The potential changes in species composition may thus lead to a number of ecosystem vulnerabilities:
Lowland hardwood forests (presently dominated by black ash) will be disrupted from drying and especially the emerald ash borer, and probably converted to red maple
Lowland conifer forests (e.g., balsam fir), may be stressed more by dry late summers, disrupting that entire ecosystem
Several ecosystems with species that have been recently declining (e.g., hemlock, paper birch, white spruce) will likely continue to decline
Vegetation changes will have significant effects on wildlife
Swanston et al. 2011
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A few final thoughts… Modeling potential responses of 134 tree and 147 birds species
using multi-stage methodology Continues to provide new knowledge of species distributions and
potential for change Carry the research results forward to ensure that it is
management relevant and assumptions are communicated What species may be players: lists of species to evaluate? How might species get there? Do the species life history characteristics compliment or contradict
the habitat changes? Must enter into an adaptive management framework moving
forward: this includes monitoring to provide feedback loops.
We are confronted with the challenge of understanding the response of ecological systems to changing landscapes. More than ever we need to consider how local management decisions fit into the distributions of target species.
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Thank you! Web site for most data
presented today: Climate change atlases Species-environment
data for 147 birds and 134 trees
Pdfs of related papers www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas
Acknowledgements• Thanks to USDA FS Northern Global Change Program for support• US Forest Service Northern Research Station• Ohio State University