Regions for economic change

E.C. – Brussels 25-26 Jan 2007

Demography, educational supply

and employment prospects -

The regional dimension in the EU

Géry Coomans

2000-2010 2010-2020

Decennial growth of age group 15-24-7% -10%

INDEX OF REPLACEMENT OF THE WORKING AGE POP. Age group 15-24 as % of age group 55-64

2000 2020121% 77%

Younger cohorts : declining size but better education

Higher education brings

Personal flexicurityhigher wagesimproved living conditions

Global larger labour supplyhigher productivity growth

high added value srategiesbetter State funding and better governance

EU15 - 1996-2003 USA - 1992-2002

Source: Eurostat LFS BLS

Annual growth of employment per educational level*

-3,3

2,02,9

1,4

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

LowM

ed.

High

Tota

l

2,2

3,2

1,4-0,6 0,0

-1

0

1

2

3

4

<HS

HS-SCnd

<Bach

Coll-G

rad

Tota

l

Demand for labour massively concentrates on tertiary educated

Croissance annuelle de l'emploi par niveau éducatif, 1996-2003

France DE UK (1999-2003)

IT ES

-0,4

1,2

4,7

1,5

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

<Bac Bac Sup. Tot

-2,6

0,31,2

0,1

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

<Bac Bac Sup. Tot

-2,2

0,9

3,5

1,1

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

<Bac Bac Sup. Tot

-1,5

4,04,6

1,4

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

<Bac Bac Sup. Tot

1,5

6,17,3

3,9

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

<Bac Bac Sup. Tot

Annual growth of employment per educational attainment –1996-2003)

Share of young adulys

Share of young adults (25-34) with tertiary education

2000 2020

HIGH IMPACT ON FERTILITY

The old relation (more education means less fertility) is being progressively reversed in a majority of Ms.

Female progression

IMPACT ON LABOUR SUPPLY(only Lisbon objective that will be reached by 2010 = female empl. Rate at 60%)

Educational progression

(% of High in 25-34 group less % of High in 55-64 group)

MALES FEMALES+5 pp +15 pp

Potential growth of employment for Low educated (15-64) 2003-2020

Average EU25= 0%

(in case empl. rates were raised to « Nordic levels »)

Due to their lower flexibility, more mismatches.

Coping through restructuring,vocational training and immigration

Projection of age distributionISCO 9 EU15

0

5

10

15

20

15

_1

9

20

_2

4

25

_2

9

30

_3

4

35

_3

9

40

_4

4

45

_4

9

50

_5

4

55

_5

9

60

_6

4

1996 20012011 2021

A fast ageing of lowest occupational positions

EU15( Isco 9 = elementary occupations)

In 2001: 1 in 3 aged 45+

In 2021: 55% aged 45+

Potential growth of employment for High educated (15-64) 2003-2020

i.e. approx.half the 1996-2003 performance

How to fuel the KBS ?

2003-2010 2010-2020

Next decade: tightening supply

Policy implications

Global level:Going beyond block structure life cycle towards lifelong development of competences

Regional level: More steps towards decentralised AND RECURRENT education• Reforming procedures and contents to help reform the

institutional framework• Regional financial incentives• Setting baits for the academic fish (ex. France where local universities massively rush to vocational training since the 2003 reform).