regulatory and policy implications of advanced …...advanced wireless technologies to spectrum...
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Regulatory and Policy Implications of Regulatory and Policy Implications of Advanced Wireless Technologies to Advanced Wireless Technologies to
Spectrum ManagementSpectrum Management
Bharat BhatiaRegional Government Relations,
ma
Workshop on Radio Spectrum Management for a Converging World Workshop on Radio Spectrum Management for a Converging World February 16February 16--18, 2004 18, 2004
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Global Telephone SubscribersWireless Subscribers Surpassed Fixed Lines in April 2002
(Millions)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
’82 ’84 ’86 ’88 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04
Wireless
Wireline
Today there are more users of wireless Today there are more users of wireless spectrum than ever in the past and this trend spectrum than ever in the past and this trend
is growing.is growing.
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Today Each User Spends More Time on Today Each User Spends More Time on Wireless and This Trend is GrowingWireless and This Trend is Growing
MOUs (Trillions)
Global Telecom Voice MOUsWireless MOUs 38% of Total in 2005
CAGR
31%
5%
Wireless
Wireline
0
2
4
6
8
10
‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05
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Today the Mobile Phone Has Become a Today the Mobile Phone Has Become a Way of Life and a Necessity Way of Life and a Necessity
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Today New Wireless Technologies are Driving Global Today New Wireless Technologies are Driving Global Information Society NEEDING More BandwidthInformation Society NEEDING More Bandwidth
3G
2.5G
2G
Data Transmission Speed - kbps 9.6 32 64 128 144 384 2,000
Still Imaging
Video Streaming
Voice
Audio Streaming
Text MessagingE-Mail
Mobile Radio
MobileTelevision
Mobile Video Conferencing
E-Commerce
Video on demand
Incr
easi
ng V
alue 3.5G
4GShared Environments
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Today New Mobile Technologies Have Today New Mobile Technologies Have Changed How we Live and WorkChanged How we Live and Work
“Everything, Everywhere " Communicates “Everything, Everywhere " Communicates People to PeoplePeople to People People to ThingsPeople to Things Things to ThingsThings to Things
Buildings HomesAppliances
TransportationVehicles & Systems
VendingMachines
Intelligent SubscribersDevices
Computers
S
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Spectrum Management needs to keep pace Spectrum Management needs to keep pace with this new paradigm in wireless usagewith this new paradigm in wireless usage
• The traditional design of spectrum management that has emerged since early 1900 was based on high signal to noise ratios.
• Future Spectrum management needs to focus on:– License free operation – Spectrum harmonization
• Spectrum auctions introduced in some markets had created a major setback in the growth of wireless technologies. APT has recommended against the use of spectrum auctions
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In the Past ITU used to Play a Leading Role in In the Past ITU used to Play a Leading Role in Global and Regional Spectrum HarmonizationGlobal and Regional Spectrum Harmonization
• International Radio Regulations have driven global/regional harmonization for many services driving lower service costs and other benefits– Broadcast bands – Amateur Bands– Aeronautical bands, – Space services– etc.
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National regulations and regional bodies have National regulations and regional bodies have driven global/regional harmonization where ITU driven global/regional harmonization where ITU
did not keep pace with Technologydid not keep pace with Technology
• International Standards and or National regulations leading to global harmonization has brought in economies of scale and lower costs of wireless systems for consumers– GSM – PCS– CDMA– IDEN
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In the recent years, ITU has tried to play a In the recent years, ITU has tried to play a limited role using alternative regulatory limited role using alternative regulatory
approaches to harmonize global/regional approaches to harmonize global/regional spectrum for new services/technologiesspectrum for new services/technologies
• IMT 2000 spectrum “identified” at WARC1992 and WRC 2000
• PPDR in spectrum “identified” at WRC2003
• Spectrum for “Beyond 3G” to be considered at WRC-07
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But ITU is still finding it difficult to accept But ITU is still finding it difficult to accept new “converged” terrestrial services new “converged” terrestrial services
• New Technologies using globally harmonized bands promise to deliver the future high bandwidth wireless services– 802.11b technologies in 2.4 – WLAN and FWA in 5GHz bands
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With its high interference tolerance and directional antennas on all access points, Canopy expands the areas that receive good serviceand reduces areas experiencing interference (red areas).
New Interference rejecting technologies such as Motorola Canopy make delicensing as the optimum spectrum
management solutions for high bandwidth needs
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Is this the time for an overall review of Is this the time for an overall review of Terrestrial Services under the Radio Terrestrial Services under the Radio
Regulations?Regulations?
Thank You
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Auctions in 99/00 drove Up Cost of LicensesLicense Cost per POP (cost per subscriber will be substantially higher)$180$180
$160$160
$140$140
$120$120
$100$100
$80$80
$60$60
$40$40
$20$20
$0$0Chicago/DallasChicago/Dallas
9999UK UK 0000
$19$19
$120$1203G3G
30% Capex Cost30% Capex Cost70% License 70% License
CostCost
PCSPCS60% Capex Cost60% Capex Cost
40% License 40% License CostCost
Germany Germany 0000
$93$93
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Shrinking Capital Available Shrinking Capital Available Based on Cost of 3G for Europe Alone Based on Cost of 3G for Europe Alone
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0(US$ Billions)
Germany UK France Italy Spain N'lands Belgium Austria Portugal Swiss DenmarkSweden Norway
CAPEXLicense
$18.5$18.5
$10.5$10.5
$10.6$10.6 $8.6$8.6
$7.2$7.2 $3.5$3.5
$46.3$46.3
$35.4$35.4
$19.0$19.0 $19.2$19.2
$2.0$2.0$3.9$3.9 $1.6$1.6 $1.0$1.0 $1.4$1.4$0.5$0.5
$64.8
$45.9
$29.6$27.8
$7.7 $7.4$3.8 $3.1 $2.8 $2.7 $2.0 $1.6 $1.2
Aggregate Expenditure = $200.4 Aggregate Expenditure = $200.4 bnbn
Source: Chase Manhattan 9//00
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Financing “Gap” Faced By Some Operators
Source: Motorola / Chase Manhattan 9/00
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
$80.0
(US$ Billions)
CAPEX CostLicense Cost
$18.5$18.5$24.9$24.9
$3.3$3.3
$22.0$22.0 $22.7$22.7
$9.0$9.0
$16.7$16.7
$9.0$9.0
$10.2
$11.2
$10.1 $9.1
$4.7
$6.7
$4.6
$61.7
$48.5
$10.2$8.5
$25.8
$9.0 $8.5 $6.4 $5.1
Strong ResourcesStrong Resources Credit PressuresCredit Pressures
$40~$50 Billion of Cash still Needed $40~$50 Billion of Cash still Needed
Debt & CashDebt & Cash
Operators – names not revealed