relevant trade-related developments on cotton · changes in cotton mill use 2015/16 24.3 million...
TRANSCRIPT
4th DEDICATED DISCUSSION OF THE
RELEVANT TRADE-RELATED
DEVELOPMENTS ON COTTON
José Sette
International Cotton Advisory Committee
Geneva
27 November 2015
SUMMARY
1. Introduction
2. Production
3. Trade
4. Consumption
5. Prices
6. Direct Government Assistance
7. Stocks
8. Comparison 2003/04 to 2014/15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15
PRICE (Cotlook A Index)
US cents/lb
WORLD PRODUCTION & MILL USE million tons
Production
Mill Use
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
94/95 99/00 04/05 09/10 14/15
Accumulated surplus 2010/11-
2014/15: 13.4 million tons
12
16
20
24
28
80/81 90/91 00/01 10/11 20/21
WORLD PRODUCTION (million tons)
WORLD PRODUCTION
0
10
20
30
90%
million tons Southern Hemisphere
Northern Hemisphere
China 23%
India 27%
USA 13%
Pakistan 8%
Brazil 6%
Australia 2%
Uzbekistan 4%
Franc. Africa 5%
Turkey 3%
Other 9%
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY 2015/16
23,1m tons
SHARE OF TRADE IN WORLD PRODUCTION
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
99/00 04/05 09/10 14/15
Exports Production Share
million tons share of exports
USA 32%
India 12%
Australia 7%
Brazil 11%
CFA Africa 11%
Uzbekistan 7%
ROW 20%
2014/15
COTTON EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
7.7 million tons
COTTON EXPORTS: 2013/14 TO 2015/16 Five Largest Exporters and Africa
million tons
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
US India Brazil Uzbekistan Australia Africa
AFRICA’S TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
BurkinaFaso
Mali Côted'Ivoire
Benin Cameroon Chad ROA
10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16
million tons
COTTON IMPORTS
4.4 5.8 6.1
5.3 1.8 1.2
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
05
/06
07
/08
09
/10
11
/12
13
/14
15/1
6
World less China Chinamillion tons
-22%
9.7
7.3
CHANGES IN COTTON IMPORTS
2015/16
7.3 million tons
1996/97
6.1 million tons
7 Countries: 34% 7 Countries: 63%
China 13%
Bangladesh 2%
Turkey 5%
Indonesia 7%
Vietnam 1%
Thailand 5%
Pakistan 1%
ROW 66%
China 14%
Bangladesh
12%
Turkey 8%
Indonesia 9%
Vietnam 14%
Thailand 3%
Pakistan 3%
ROW 37%
WORLD COTTON MILL USE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16 20/21
million tons
CHANGES IN COTTON MILL USE
2015/16
24.3 million tons
1996/97
19 million tons
7 Countries: 70% 9 Countries: 86%
China 23%
India 15%
Pakistan 8%
USA 13%
Turkey 6%
Brazil 4%
Indonesia 2%
ROW 29% China
30%
India 23%
Pakistan 9%
Turkey 6%
Bangladesh
4%
Vietnam 5%
USA 3%
Brazil 3%
Indonesia 3%
ROW 14%
CHINA CONSUMPTION AND WORLD SHARE
US cents/lb
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16, for
Consumption Share
COTTON EXPORTS: 2015/16 to 2020/21 Five Largest Exporters and Africa
million tons
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16 20/21
US India Brazil Uzbekistan Australia Africa
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%74
/75
79
/80
84
/85
89
/90
94
/95
99
/00
04
/05
09
/10
14
/15
Season highest value
Season lowest value
CHALLENGE: PRICE VOLATILITY Cotlook A Index: Difference with respect to season average
2015/16: August-October 2015
CHALLENGE: COMPETITIVE PRICING
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15
Cotlook A Index
Source: Cotton Outlook Ltd.
US cents/lb
27 29
27 26 24
0
20
40
60
80
1960
1971
1982
1993
20
04
2015
0
10
20
30
40
million tons market share (%)
WORLD COTTON CONSUMPTION
AND MARKET SHARE OF COTTON
2020
2025
DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO
COTTON PRODUCTION
• Direct support to production
• Border protection
• Crop insurance subsidies
• Minimum support price mechanisms
• Input subsidies
• Transportation subsidies
DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO COTTON
AND PRICES
1.65
1.00
0.88
0.91
0.71
0.4
1.1
1.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13
US$ billion A Index (US$/lb)
WORLD PRODUCTION UNDER
DIRECT ASSISTANCE
0
10
20
30
40
97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13
Without Assistance With Assistance
76%
million tons
Average With Assistance: 55%
83%
47%
CHINA NATIONAL RESERVE
Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-150
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
million tons
2015 CHINESE RESERVE SALES thousand tons
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7/10 7/17 7/24 7/31 8/7 8/14 8/21
Offered Sold
WORLD ENDING STOCKS
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0
5
10
15
20
25
World-less China China S/U
million tons
Stock-to-Use Ratio
GROWTH IN WORLD COTTON MILL USE
3.1%
-0.5%
-2.0%
6.0%
2.8% 2.0%
3.1%
1.1%
9.8%
5.9% 6.3%
0.3%
-11.0%
6.8%
-3.0%
-7.4%
3.4%
1.4% 1.5% 0.7%
-12.0%
-7.0%
-2.0%
3.0%
8.0%
1.5%
COMPARISON 2002/03 – 2014/15
2002/03 2014/15 % CHANGE
Production (m tons) 19.6 26.2 +34
Yield (kg/ha) 651 785 +20
Exports (m tons) 6.6 7.7 +17
Mill Use (m tons) 21.3 24.2 +14
Ending Stocks (m tons) 9.5 21.9 +131
Stock/Use Ratio (%) 0.45 0.90 +102
Fiber Market Share (%) 39.9 28.1 -30
Direct Assistance (US$ billion) 4.2 10.4 +148
Price (US cts/lb) 55.4 71.0 +28
