Reliability Must-Run Analysis2006 – 20154th BTA Presentation

Bob Smith

Manager Transmission Planning

June 6, 2006

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 2

Outline of Presentation 2006 RMR Study Process Description of network and constraint SIL/MLSC determination RMR - demand, energy and duration Economic impact of transmission constraint Observations Comparison of RMR Studies to FERC SIL

Studies

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 3

2006 RMR Study Process Transmission Provider Coordination

January 21, 2005 meeting to coordinate plan Decision to study 2008 and 2015

SSG-WI cases to be developed

Basic Case Development SWAT Involvement

Approve study plan May 4, 2005 Update on study August 23 and October 25 Preliminary results presentation Jan 17, 2006

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 4

RMR Economic Analysis ABB GridView production-cost simulator Entire WECC modeled Hourly least cost dispatch with transmission

constraints Annual cost to serve area load determined Study repeated ignoring local import limit Difference is the RMR cost Environmental impact determined for each

generator using emission rates

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 5

Phoenix Area Load 2008

Westwing500KV

230KV

Surprise

Lone Peak Cactus Ocotillo

230KV

345KV

Pinnacle Peak

500KV

Rudd

Kyrene

500KV

PaloVerde/

Hassayampa

GilaRiver

Reach

500KV

230KV

Deer Valley

Brandow (2)Papago Butte

Rogers (2)

69Kv (3)

69Kv

Gavilan Peak

(3)

Agua Fria

DeerValley

69Kv (2)

Raceway

(4)

(2)

230KV

Buckeye

TS4

Liberty

230KV69Kv

Knox

500KV(2)

230KV

Browning

500KV

230KVSilverKing

Jojoba

(2)

(2)

Hayden

Kearny Tap

115KV

SpookHill

Coolidge

230KV

PhoenixArea Load

Phoenix AreaLoad (2008)

Critical Outage Limiting Element

Jojoba-Kyrene 500kV

Kyrene-Corbell 230kV

West Phoenix-Lincoln Street 230kV

Agua Fria-Glendale 230kV

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 6

2008 Phoenix Load Serving Capability

3674, 13860

2583, 12625

0, 9700

12625

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

14000

14500

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Valley Generation (MW)

Va

lle

y L

oa

d (

MW

)

2008 LSC Forecasted Peak Load

Jojoba-Kyrene 500kV OutageKyrene-Corbell 230kV Line

Safe Operating Area

West Phoenix-Lincoln Street 230kV OutageAgua Fria-Glendale 230kV Line

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 7

2008 Phoenix Load Durationand RMR ConditionsPHOENIX LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2008)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

HOURS

LO

AD

(M

W)

VALLEY LOAD

Total Valley Energy = 56,651 GWH

845 HOURS

PEAK = 12,625 MW

SIL = 9700 MW

650 GWH

2583 MW

10042 MW

8

2008 Phoenix Area Energy

Load Requiring no RMR, 56,001

GWh, 99%

RMR Energy "in the money", 637

GWh, 1%

RMR Energy "outside of economic

dispatch", 13 GWh, 0%

Phoenix Area Total Load = 56,651 GWh

$0M incremental cost

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 9

Phoenix Area Load 2015

Westwing500kV

230kV

Surprise

Lone Peak Cactus Ocotillo

230kV

345kVPinnacle Peak

500kV

Rudd

Kyrene

500kV

PaloVerde/

Hassayampa

GilaRiver

Reach

500kV

230kV

Deer Valley

Brandow (2)Papago Butte

Rogers (2)

69kV (4)

69kV (2)

Gavilan Peak

(3)

Agua Fria

DeerValley

69kV (2)

Raceway

(4)

(3)

230KV

Buckeye

TS4

Liberty

230kV

69kV

Knox

500kV

230kV

Browning

500kV

230kVSilverKing

Jojoba

(2)

(2)

Hayden

Kearny Tap

115kV

SpookHill

Coolidge

230kV

PhoenixArea Load

Phoenix AreaLoad (2015)

500kV 230kV

TS5

500kV(3)

230kV

South EastValley

TS669kV (2)

Avery

TS1

500kV(3)

500kV

230kV

(2)

Critical Outage Limiting Element

Jojoba-Kyrene 500kV

Voltage Instability

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 10

2015 Phoenix Load Serving Capability

3674, 17051

2811, 16100

0, 13004

16100

12000

12500

13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Valley Generation (MW)

Valley L

oad

(M

W)

2015 LSC Forecasted Peak Load

Jojoba-Kyrene 500kV OutageVoltage instability

Safe Operating Area

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 11

2015 Phoenix Load Durationand RMR Conditions

PHOENIX LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2015)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

HOURS

LO

AD

(M

W)

VALLEY LOAD

Total Valley Energy = 72,083 GWH

548 HOURS

PEAK = 16,100 MW

SIL = 13,004 MW

419 GWH2,811 MW

13289 MW

12

2015 Phoenix Area Energy

Load Requiring no RMR, 71,664

GWh, 99%

RMR Energy "out of the money", 2

GWh, 0%

RMR Energy "in the money", 417

GWh, 1%

Phoenix Area Total Load = 72,083 GWh

$0M incremental cost

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 13

Expected Phoenix Reserves

951 MW

1235 MW

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2008 Expected Reserves 2015 Expected Reserves

Valley G

en

era

tio

n (

MW

)

Desired Reserves: 865 MW

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 14

Phoenix RMR Observations APS load is expected to exceed import capability for

845 hours in 2008, and 548 hours in 2015. RMR energy represents approximately 1% of the total energy.

The projected reserves in both 2008 and 2015 are greater than the 99% reliability reserve requirement of 865 MW.

Cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is less than $1M in both 2008 and 2015.

Expected RMR costs do not justify Construction costs to relieve RMR requirements.

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 15

2008 Yuma Transmission System

YCA

Knob

El Centro

Pilot Knob

161/69 KV

GT2 GT1

GT4 GT3ST1

Yucca

Cocopah

QF1

Riverside

Mittry

525/69 KVN.Gila

ImperialValley

Hassayampa

10 Streetth

Quechan

Ivalon

32 Streetnd

161/69 KV

GilaN.O.

Araby

Foothills

Marine AirBase

Laguna

San Luis

CFE (emergency tie)

161/69 KV69/34.5 KV

Sonora500 kV

161 kV

69 kV & below

Yuma Transmission System-2008

Metering point for the Yuma area load pocketTony\BLK/YumaCut

New

TS8

Critical Outage: Hassayampa-N.G. 500kVLimiting Element: Pilot Knob-Yucca 161kV

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 16

2008 Yuma Load Serving Capability

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Yuma Generation (MW)

Yum

a Lo

ad (M

W)

Forecast = 426 MW

0, 264

229, 540369, 545

134,426

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 17

2008 Yuma Load Durationand RMR Conditions

YUMA LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2008)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

HOURS

LO

AD

(M

W)

YUMA LOAD

Total Yuma Energy = 1,892 GWH

1703 HOURS

PEAK = 426 MW

SIL = 264 MW

134 MW

75 GWH

292 MW

18

2008 APS Yuma Energy

Load Requiring no RMR, 1,817

GWh, 97%RMR Energy "out of the money",

47 GWh, 2%

RMR Energy "in the money", 28

GWh, 1%

APS Yuma Area Total Load = 1,892 GWh

$1.3M incremental cost

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 19

2015 Yuma Transmission System

YCA

Knob

El Centro

Pilot Knob

161/69 KV

GT2 GT1

GT4 GT3ST1

Yucca

Cocopah

QF1

Riverside

Mittry

525/69 KV

N.Gila

ImperialValley

Hassayampa

10 Streetth

Quechan

Ivalon

32 Streetnd

161/69 KV

Gila

Araby

Foothills

Marine AirBase

Laguna

San Luis

CFE (emergency tie)

161/69 KV69/34.5 KV

Sonora500 kV

161 Kv & above

69 kV & below

Yuma Transmission System-2015

Metering point for the Yuma area load pocketTony\BLK/YumaCut

New

TS8

525/230 KV

Critical Outage: Cocopah-Riverside 69kVLimiting Element: Riverside-10th Street 69kV

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 20

2015 Yuma Load Serving Capability

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Yuma Generation (MW)

Yum

a Lo

ad (M

W) Forecast = 563 MW

0, 453

322, 826

95, 563

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 21

2015 Yuma Load Durationand RMR Conditions

YUMA LOAD DURATION & RMR CONDITION (2015)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

HOURS

LO

AD

(M

W)

YUMA LOAD

Total Yuma Energy = 2,492 GWH

553 HOURS

PEAK = 563 MW

SIL = 453 MW

95 MW 14 GWH

468 MW

22

2015 APS Yuma Energy

Load Requiring no RMR, 2,478

GWh, 100%RMR Energy "out

of the money", 2.8 GWh, 0%

RMR Energy "in the money", 11.2

GWh, 0%

APS Yuma Area Total Load = 2,492 GWh

$0M incremental cost

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 23

Expected Yuma Reserves270 MW

231 MW

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2008 Expected Reserves 2015 Expected Reserves

Yu

ma G

en

era

tio

n (

MW

)

Desired Reserves: 138 MW

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 24

Yuma RMR Observations Yuma load is expected to exceed import capability for

1,703 hours in 2008, and 553 hours in 2015. The projected reserves in both 2008 and 2015 are

greater than the 99% reliability reserve requirement of 138 MW.

Cost to run local generation outside of economic dispatch is $1.3M in 2008 and less than $1M in 2015.

Addition of 100mw of generation in Yuma in 2008 and a new 500kV line from the PV area to North Gila and a 230kV line from North Gila into the Yuma load area effectively manage RMR conditions.

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 25

Overall RMR Observations Benefits of local generation

Increase reliability Local voltage support Contingency response Operating flexibility

Reduced losses Lower transmission investment

26

ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies

SELIGMAN

ROUNDVALLEY

POWER PLANT

115KV & ABOVE SUBSTATION (EXISTING)

LEGEND

NORTH

SAGUARO

N.GILA

PALO VERDE-HASSAYAMPA

YUCCA

GILA BEND

TO CALIF.500KV

REDHAWK

JOJOBA

GILA RIVER

RUDD

LIBERTYKYRENE

SANTAROSA

DESERTBASIN

WESTWING

YAVAPAI VERDE

PINNACLE PEAK

PREACHERCANYON

CHOLLA

TO CALIF.

TOCRYSTAL

TO MEAD /MARKETPLACE

MOENKOPI

NAVAJO

FOURCORNERS

TUCSON

5/23/06Transmission Planning

COCONINO

Substation locations and line routings depict an electrical connection only anddo not reflect any assumed physical locations or routing.

CASAGRANDE

TAT MOMOLI

KNOX

GAVILANPEAK

FLAGSTAFF

GLEN CANYON

EXISTING 500 KV LINESEXISTING 345 KV LINESEXISTING 230 KV LINESEXISTING 115 KV LINES

NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

CORONADO

BROWNINGSILVERKING

RMR Load Pockets

APS control area used for FERC SIL

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 27

ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies ACC RMR Studies

Load Pockets Phoenix - Combined APS/SRP Yuma

SIL Load Pocket import capability with no generation

FERC SIL Studies Control Area simultaneous import limit

Decrease internal control area generation Increase external control area generation Stop when reach reliability limit

June 6, 2006 4th BTA 28

ACC RMR Studies Compared to FERC SIL Studies FERC SIL Studies (cont.)

Issues FERC methodology not consistent with operations in

Western Interconnection TTC calculation Oasis posting

Scaling of generation Uniform vs. maximize imports

RMR limits for Phoenix & Yuma used in SIL Study FERC did not have issues with Phoenix & Yuma

RMR limits