remko ybema, unit manager of policy studies, energy research centre of the netherlands
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Remko Ybema, Unit Manager of Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/554db638b4c905fa7a8b54ec/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
www.ecn.nl
Some observations and comments on EU’s roadmap for low carbon growth in 2050
Remko Ybema
![Page 2: Remko Ybema, Unit Manager of Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/554db638b4c905fa7a8b54ec/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Observation: messages of hope
• A road to a low carbon economy is within reach
• A consistent picture of the portfolio of low-carbon technologies
• Substantial upfront cost, but these will be largely paid back
• Investments will spur economic growth and create jobs
• Substantial co-benefits
• Tested under different technical conditions
2 11-04-2023
![Page 3: Remko Ybema, Unit Manager of Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/554db638b4c905fa7a8b54ec/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
It shows what is needed….
• A major increase in capital investments (270 bill. euro)
• The EU ETS will be critical to drive a wide range of technologies
• Smart financing schemes
• Public private financing mechanisms
• Additional RD&D investments (50 bill euro in 10 years)
3 11-04-2023
![Page 4: Remko Ybema, Unit Manager of Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/554db638b4c905fa7a8b54ec/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
But…..
• Nowadays economy seems the only priority
• Conflicting stakes: some will lose…
• Inertia: not only physical inertia, also in policy processes, coordination, institutions, mindsets, behaviour….
• Price of CO2 is low
• Behavioural issues matter
• Often difficult to attract capital
•…and how to divide upfront cost?
4 11-04-2023
![Page 5: Remko Ybema, Unit Manager of Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/554db638b4c905fa7a8b54ec/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
One of the reasons to be optimistic: investments in renewables
5 11-04-2023
[REN21, 2010]
In 2010: 243 billion dollar
![Page 6: Remko Ybema, Unit Manager of Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/554db638b4c905fa7a8b54ec/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
But ….. how it compares with revenues of 10 largest companies ….
Rank Company Revenues($ millions)
Profits($ millions)
1 Wal-Mart Stores 408,214 14,335
2 Royal Dutch Shell 285,129 12,518
3 Exxon Mobil 284,650 19,280
4 BP 246,138 16,578
5 Toyota Motor 204,106 2,256
6 Japan Post Holdings 202,196 4,849
7 Sinopec 187,518 5,756
8 State Grid 184,496 -343
9 AXA 175,257 5,012
10 China National Petroleum 165,496 10,272
6 11-04-2023
[CNN money, 2011]
![Page 7: Remko Ybema, Unit Manager of Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/554db638b4c905fa7a8b54ec/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Determinants of behaviour not covered
• Needs satisfaction is leading, not energy considerations
• Risk aversion prevents many to change • Only a small correlation between awareness and
easy/symbolic green behaviour‑ Denial‑ Blame others‑ Blame the circumstances‑ Change opinion
![Page 8: Remko Ybema, Unit Manager of Policy Studies, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/554db638b4c905fa7a8b54ec/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Conclusions
• EU roadmap: messages of hope
• It shows what is needed, but partially
• Several elements are missing, including them makes the challenge larger