Renewable Energy Resources

Lecture 1: Need, Sustainability and Economics

Dr Ayesha Mohy-ud-din

Reading/Reference List

Recommended Readings

• Renewable Energy Resources by John Twidell & Tont Weir

• Fundamentals of Renewable Energy Processes by Aldo Da Rosa, 2nd ed Elsevier Academic Press ISBN 0120885107

• Renewable Energy by Godfrey Boyle, 2nd ed Oxford University Press 2004, ISBN 0-19-926178-4

Side Reading

• Renewable energy engineering and technology: principles and practice edited by Kishore

• Solar energy and its uses by Naggi

• Wind energy: theory and practice by Siraj Ahmad

Course Objectives

• Key concepts in renewable energy technologies

• Ability to model and cost renewable energy projects.

• Awareness of political and business issues relating to renewable energy

The Big Picture

• This generation is using the earth’s finite resources much faster than they can be regenerated

• It’s estimated that we burn in 1 year what it took nature 15,000 years to make

• We are endangering the standard of living of future generations– Energy / Resources Poor– Pollution (incl. climate change)– Biodiversity (largest mass extinction of species in the

past 65 million years)

Motivations that drive today’s energy discussions

• Fossil fuels are a finite resource– Cheap oil and gas will probably run out in our lifetime– Needed for plastics and other essential materials

• We’re interested in security of energy supply– Each nation / economic block needs security to

protect industry and essential services– Have our fossil fuels peaked?

• It’s very likely that fossil fuels change the climate

Peak Oil• Peak oil is the point in time when the

maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline.

• Hubbert proposed that fossil fuel production in a given region over time would follow a roughly bell-shaped curve

• "Hubbert's peak" can refer to the peaking of production of a particular area, which has now been observed for many fields and regions.

• Hubbert's Peak was achieved in the continental US in the early 1970s. Oil production peaked at 10.2 million barrels a day. Since then, it has been in a gradual decline.

• Hubbert assumed that after fossil fuel reserves (oil reserves, coal reserves, and natural gas reserves) are discovered, production at first increases approximately exponentially, as more extraction commences and more efficient facilities are installed. At some point, a peak output is reached, and production begins declining until it approximates an exponential decline.

Production Lags Discovery

Who uses the world’s oil?

Latin America, 9%

Japan, 5%Africa , 3%

Rest of World, 19%

India, 3%

USA & Canada, 27% Former USSR,

5%

Europe, 19%

China, 10%

Latin America

Japan

Africa

Rest of World

India

USA & Canada

Former USSR

Europe

China

Source: sustainability institute

Projected Price of Oil

Projected Price of Oil

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100

150

200

250

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

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Conclusions of the Hirsch Report

• World oil peaking is going to happen - some forecasters predict within a decade, others later.

• Oil peaking could cost economies dearly - particularly that of the U.S. • Oil peaking presents a unique challenge - previous transitions were gradual and

evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary. • The real problem is liquid fuels for transportation - motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and

ships have no ready alternative. • Efforts will require substantial time - an intense effort over decades. • Both supply and demand will require attention - higher efficiency can reduce demand,

but large amounts of substitute fuels must be produced. • It is a matter of risk management - early solution will be less damaging than delayed

solution. • Government intervention will be required - otherwise the economic and social

implications would be chaotic. • Economic upheaval is not inevitable - without damage, peaking will cause major

upheaval, but given enough lead-time, the problems are soluble. • More information is needed - effective action requires better understanding of a

number of issues.

Security of Supply

• Mostly over 90% of total primary energy requirements are met by imported oil, coal, and gas.

• Slow rate of development of indigenous renewable energy sources

• Does the ‘Balance Sheet’ add up?– Are there enough renewables to cover our requirements

• What are the social and economic consequences of – Substantially increased energy costs?– Intermittent and Uncertain Supply?

Renewables Change the Game

distributed sources

local supply and demand

monopolies difficult to establish

no intermediaries

local economic ecosystems

new technologies needed

Renewable

• Renewable energy is energy generated from natural resources such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and Biomass—which are renewable (naturally replenished).

• Although by definition non-finite, renewables are constrained by technology and infrastructure capable of harvest

• While most renewable energy projects and production is large-scale, renewable technologies are also suited to small off-grid applications in rural and remote areas, where energy is often crucial in human development

Survey of Renewable Energy Technologies

Energy sources and usesBiomassChemical processingBiological processingWind energyEnergy storage and sequestrationEfficiencyRenewable chemicalsEngines and combustionFuel cellsEnvironmentEconomics

The Subject of this Course

source process product

biomasswindsunwater

chemicalthermalbiologicalmechanical

heatchemicalselectricityfuel

Renewable versus Nonrenewable

plants

animalsenergy

CO2

Coal, oil, gas, and biomassCHx + O2 CO2 + H2O + heat

These all came from photosynthesisCO2 + H2O + sunlight carbohydrates +O2

No net CO2 produced in cycle

The cycle takes 1 year for crops200 million years from coal and oil!

Economically Attractive

• Finding new energy sources is not difficult – What is difficult is finding new sources of economically attractive energy

• It is essential to be able to estimate the cost of energy produced by different methods

Problems with Renewables• Intermittency / Fluctuations

– (the wind doesn't always blow nor the sun always shine) and that this has not been adequately factored into discussions of their potential

– Requirement for significant storage

• Social and Environmental Impact– Food Capacity– Land Usage– Aesthetic

• Accessibility• Technology Maturity• Cost• Availability of transmission net

• Greater use of renewable energy is seen as a key component of any move to combat climate change, and is being aggressively promoted as such by the new U.S. administration and by other

• Without new storage technologies that can overcome intermittency, much of the decarbonization of the economy will have to come from nuclear, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and energy efficiency

• New energy storage technologies could greatly increase the role of renewables, but none are currently in sight

• Little rigorous economic analysis of renewable technologies

Electricity Demand Profile

6am midday 6pm midnight

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Time of Dayseason

Carbon & Climate Change

• Human fossil- fuel burning causes carbon dioxide concentrations to rise

• Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas;

• Increasing the greenhouse effect in-creases average global temperatures (and has many other effects).

Carbon & Climate Change

Source: http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/withouthotair/c1/page_6.shtml

Carbon & Climate Change

• The burning of fossil fuels sends about 7 gigatons of CO2 per year into the atmosphere

• The biosphere and the oceans send about 440 gigatons and 330 gigatons of CO2 per year into the atmosphere

The Balance Sheet

• Consumption– Transport– Heating and Cooling– Lighting– Information Systems

and Gadgets– Food– Manufacturing

• Renewables Production Capability– Wind– Solar– Hydroelectric– Wave– Geothermal– Nuclear??

Without hot air pg 22

The Energy Gap

• What is energy gap

• Can we live on renewables?

• Options for reducing consumption?

Ideas?

• Solar Power Satellites

• utility-scale solar thermal power utility-scale solar thermal power

• Hydro Storage facilities

• Cold Fusion

RENEWABLE ENERGY IN PAKISTAN

• Activities of Pakistan Council for Renewable Energy Technologies (PCRET)– Photovoltaic (PV) Technology

• Solar-Wind-Diesel High hybrid system installed to provide electricity to two villages in Balochistan through M/s Empower International, New Zealand.

• Two other villages in Balochistan were electrified using PV system.

• 3000 Laser Detectors were designed and fabricated for incorporating in the laser land leveling system of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC).

• 4000 Solar Cells and 300 Solar Modules of different sizes were fabricated indigenously

RENEWABLE ENERGY IN PAKISTAN

– Solar Thermal Appliances• A number of appliances including solar water heaters,

solar fruit and vegetable dryers, solar distillation stills for producing clean water, solar room heating systems and solar cookers have been developed and disseminated for domestic and commercial applications. Fuel Saving / Efficient Cooking Stoves

• PCRET has developed five different models of efficient cooking stoves for use in different parts of the country. Their efficiency varies from 20% to 25% vis-à-vis 10% efficiency of conventional cooking stoves. So far, 70,000 such cooking stoves have been disseminated, 400 training programs conducted and 20 cooking stoves manufacturing units/shops established and 200 sale points have been opened by the private sector.

RENEWABLE ENERGY IN PAKISTAN• Biogas Technology• 1500 family size biogas plants have been installed, which are

meeting the domestic needs of 1500 households in the rural area of the country.

• 3 community size biogas plants have been installed in rural areas of Islamabad, which are meeting domestic fuel needs of 20 houses.

• A 1000 m3 biogas plant is being designed for installation near Cattle Colony, Karachi. This plant will work under thermophillic conditions.

• Micro Hydro Power (MHP) Plants• 300 MHP plants (5-50 kW each) installed on cost sharing basis in

the hilly terrain of NWFP. • Under Malakand Rural Development Project, 5 MHP plants have

been installed and civil works of another 20 MHP plants have been completed. The Government of NWFP has funded this project. 

• Electrification through Micro Wind Turbines• 600 houses have been electrified in the remote coastal

areas of Sindh and Balochistan through installation of small wind turbines (stand alone) systems.

• 4 Coast Guard Check Posts at Lasbela have been electrified.

• 5 villages have been provided with battery charging facilities through a wind-powered battery-charging center.

• 500-Watts Wind Turbine has been manufactured locally. The second (improved) model is under field test.

• A reverse osmosis unit is being installed near village Mubarak, Kemari Town, Karachi for desalination of brackish water.

RENEWABLE ENERGY IN PAKISTAN