Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Sources Sources in Polandin Poland

Krzysztof KonaszewskiKrzysztof KonaszewskiPolish Association of Renewable Energy

Zbigniew LeonowiczZbigniew LeonowiczWroclaw University of Technology

2010

L5 + RZE L2

Dolna Odra

BOT

PSE

Enea

Kozienice

Grupa Energetyczna Centrum-Enea

29%

45%

14%

10%

Share of the production market

Share in the distribution market

KWK Bogdanka

Energy in Poland

Source: PGE, December 2007

11 %

Energia Pro

PKE

Enion

EnergaOstrołęka

Tauron- Polska Energia

Grupa Energetyczna Północ-Energa

Stalowa Wola

26%

17%

15%

2%

Polska Grupa Energetyczna

Installed RES power Installed RES power capacitycapacity

Electrical energy production from Electrical energy production from RESRES

Source: Republic of Poland Ministry of Economy, 2008

2005 2006 2007 2008

1 269 1 378 1 524 1924

2005 2006 2007 2008

3 760 4 222 5 229 6 794

MW

GWh

2005 2006 2007 20080

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

83

451288

(MW

)

year

Biogass Biomass Wind Water

153

Installed RES power capacityInstalled RES power capacity

Individual RES shareon the energy market (2008)

• Biomass & Biogas - 12%

• Wind - 34%

• Large Water-Power Plants - 46%

• Small Water-Power Plants - 8%

Challenges the Polish economy is facing

Indicative goal for Poland: achieving 15 %* share of renewable energy

sources in the country's energy balance by 2020

*) according to a proposal put forward by the European Commission from January 23, 2008

Energy package 3x20 – legal support for the development of renewable energy sources:

- reducing greenhouse gases emissions by 20%

- improving efficiency by 20% (reducing primary energy usage)

- increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy balance by 20%

Goals (1) Goals (2) Goals (3)

OZE 20%CO2 20%

EE 20%

Reducing fuel consumptionEnvironment protection

InnovationEnergy security

Energy - climate package 3x20Energy - climate package 3x20

"Amount" of energy produced by the3x20 Package in 2020

(according to prices and estimates from 2008)

• share of the total energy market – 15% (100 TWh)

• investments – approx. 40 billion EURO

• annual income – approx. 10 billion EURO (including electric energy market approx. 55 %,

heat market approx. 15 %, transport fuels market incl. Exciseapprox. 30 %)

• annual CO2 emissions reduction – approx.

100 mln tons

7,810,0

12,3 12,7 13,1 13,5 13,9 14,316,1

18,120,2

22,324,0

14,5

17,8 18,3 18,8 19,4 19,9 20,5

23,1

25,9

28,8

31,9

34,2

5,4

11,3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

- requirement counted after sales - requirement counted after production

That much RES energy should

Poland produce in order to achieve its

15% share of the total production in

2020

[ 228 TWh - 2020]

That much RES energy should

Poland produce in order to achieve its

15% share of the total sales in 2020

[ 160 TWh - 2020 ]

Goal option I

Goal option II

Renewable energy Renewable energy demand forecast for demand forecast for

Poland by 2020 Poland by 2020 [ TWh ][ TWh ]

RES production in Poland in 2007

Gross RES energy demand acc. to types of energy [ktoe]

acc. to Poland's Energy Policy project by 2030

20062006 20102010 20152015 20202020 20252025 20302030

Electric energyElectric energy370.6370.6 722.1722.1 1596.91596.9 2762.2762.

223269.03269.0 3411.33411.3

BiomassBiomass 159.2159.2 302.6302.6 492.3492.3 808.3808.3 969.2969.2 1009.91009.9

BiogasBiogas 13.813.8 31.431.4 140.7140.7 349.1349.1 552.0552.0 592.6592.6

WindWind 22.022.0

6%6%174.0174.024%24%

718.9718.945%45%

1330.1330.00

48%48%

1470.01470.045%45%

1530.01530.045%45%

WaterWater 175.6175.6 214.0214.0 244.9244.9 274.6274.6 276.7276.7 276.7276.7

PhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.00.0 0.20.2 1.11.1 2.12.1

Gross demandGross demand 150.8150.8 151.9151.9 160.2160.2 171.8171.8 192.8192.8 207.4207.4

Total national electric energy demand [TWh]

Electric energy demand forecast

acc. to Poland's Energy Policy by 2030

• Demand for electric energy will rise by approx. 44 % (in relation to 2006).

• Gross RES electric energy production in 2020 will reach the level of approx. 31 TWh, which will be approx. 19.6 % of the total production,

• Gross RES electric energy production in 2030 will reach the level of approx. 38 TWh, which will be approx. 18.4 % of the gross production.

• The biggest share will belong to energy produced by wind power stations – in 2030 approx. 18 TWh (approx. 50% of all renewble sources)

Estimated RES electric energy production in Poland by 2020

* Acc. to the Association of Renewable Energy.

Wind-power plants - 14 TWh

Biomass – 16 TWh

Water-power plants – 3 TWh

RES technical potential in Poland

RES Technical Potential in Poland (TWh p.a.)

12-14

30-35

14-17

8-10Wind/sea

Wind/land

Biomass

Water

Production unpredictability and the necessity to maintain larger reserves for balancing

Large investment cost in MW

Relatively low efficiency

Potential resistance from environmentalists

Cocombustion potential of existing plants (limiting the amount of biomasa in fuel to 8-10% for technological reasons)

Low investment cost

Necessity to transport and/or store biomass

Low caloric value of fuel

Poorly developed biomass market in Poland

Unused water potential mainly on Wisla and Odra, large resistance from the environmentalists against regulating those rivers

Large investment cost in MW

Wind

Biomass

Water

The RES technical potential in Poland can be estimated at

64 -76 TWh

Renewable energy development options assessment

CostCost ImplementImplementation Timeation Time

Technology Technology AvailabilityAvailability ExperienceExperience PotentialPotential TogetherTogether

CocombustioCocombustionn

Sea wind Sea wind farmsfarms

Land wind Land wind farmsfarms

AgrienergetiAgrienergeticscs

Small water-Small water-power plantspower plants

Large water-Large water-power plantspower plants

Geothermal Geothermal energyenergy

Solar energySolar energy

good śaverage bad

Renewable energy sources investment needs

2500-3100 2500-3100

1900-2400

1700-2000

600-750

250-300

PL

N /

MW

h

Low network limitations

Small growth potential

Low network limitations,large growth potential,

low fuel supplies limitations

No network limitations,

fuel supplies limitations

Investments necessary to produce an average of 1 MWh a year [PLN/MWh]

• Quantitatice liability system realized in the form of "green certificates"

• Functions since October 1, 2005

Obligations of companies selling energy to end buyers

Submitting Origin Certificates to the President of the Energy Regulatory Authority for remission

Paying the substitute fee

Source: Republic of Poland Ministry of Economy, 2008

RES electric energy RES electric energy productionproduction

support mechanismsupport mechanism

RES support mechanism

Average green certificate price in 2008Average green certificate price in 2008241.01241.01

zł/MWhzł/MWh

Expected average price of energy for RES Expected average price of energy for RES manufacturers in 2009manufacturers in 2009

ok. 200ok. 200

zł/MWhzł/MWh

Green certificate price, TGE session, 13.03.2009Green certificate price, TGE session, 13.03.2009245.01 245.01

zł/MWhzł/MWh

Price of energy for RES manufacturers in 2008Price of energy for RES manufacturers in 2008 128128..8080 złzł / 1MWh / 1MWh

2008

2009

Substitute fee for not fulfilling obligation in 2008Substitute fee for not fulfilling obligation in 2008248.46248.46

zł/MWhzł/MWh

Substitute fee for not fulfilling obligation in 2009Substitute fee for not fulfilling obligation in 2009258.89258.89

zł/MWhzł/MWh

2008

2009

2008

2009

substitute fee value:

green certificate price:

electric energy price:

Additional obligations

Obligation to buy the whole amount of RES electric energy at an average electric energy market price from last year

The average market price is published by the President of the Energy Regulatory Authority

Source: Republic of Poland Ministry of Economy, 2008

Investment support

• European Union funds for 2007-2013– "Infrastruktura i Środowisko" Operational Program– "Innowacyjna Gospodarka" Operational Program– Rural Areas Development Program– Regional Operational Programs

National fundsNational funds

National Fund for Environmental Protection and National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water ManagementWater Management

provincial, district and communal environmental provincial, district and communal environmental protection and water management fundsprotection and water management funds

Source: Republic of Poland Ministry of Economy, 2008

The future of RES electric energyThe future of RES electric energy

in Polandin Poland

2010 goal – 7,5 %

Performance for 2007 – 3,4 %

Performance for 2007 – 4,5 %

Forecast for 2020 – ?

Source: Republic of Poland Ministry of Economy, 2008

Energy potential of Polish rivers

• Poland's annual hydroenergetic resources: 8.800 GWh

• Poland's annual hydroenergetic resources use in 2006:

2.200 GWh• Additional expected hydroenergetic resources use

in the years 2008-2020: 882 GWh

(when considering achieving maximum effects of building water-power plant)

Water power development scenarios

1. Construction of new barrages and water-power plants,

2. Using existing damming structures to build water-power plants

3. Modernization and renowation of existing structures

Hydroenergetic facilities in Poland:• pre-war MEW number: approx. 8.000• post-war MEW number : approx. 630

Wind power developmentWind power development

in Polandin Poland

• It is estimated, that 1/3 of the area of Poland has good wind energy potential

• Installed wind-power plants power (in 2008 in Poland): 451 MW

EWEA forecast for 2010: 1200 MW

• possibility to connect wind-power plants to the power system with a combined power of:

5 000 MW

(no additional network investments required)

Wind energy in Poland in kWh Wind energy in Poland in kWh (m(m22/year)/year)

Mesoscale wind resources privellaged areas in Poland are:

• Central, most forward area of the seaside, from Koszalin to Hel,

• Area of the island Wolin,

• Suwalszczyzna,

• Central Wielkopolska and Mazowsze,

• Beskid Śląski and Żywiecki,

• Bieszczady and Pogórze Dynowskie.

Sources: http://www.elektrownie-wiatrowe.org.pl and Europejskie Centrum Energii Odnawialnej and "Nowy Przemysł" based on EWEA

Administration Barriers

• Construction Law regulation requirements.Construction Law regulation requirements.• Large amount of agreements (scattered investment).Large amount of agreements (scattered investment).• Necessity to obtain public goal decisions .Necessity to obtain public goal decisions .• Necessity for Local Plan changes. Necessity for Local Plan changes. • Long duration of formal procedures.

Source: ESP S.A., 2007

Network barriers

• Poor network infrastructure in Poland, especially in areas favorable to wind.

• Network development problems (ownership of land). • Connection costs.• Increased demand for storing reserve power

Biomass sources

Biomass

Solid Biomass

Gas Biomass

Fluid & Semi-fluidBiomass

•forests, gardens and urban green areas biomass

• forest and paper industry waste

• food industry waste

• straw and other agricultural waste

• special energy crops

• landfill gas and agrigas

• sewage treatment plant biogas

• sewage treatment plant sedimentation waste

• animal feaces

Biomass & Biogas combustion technology

BiomassBiomass

Annual Annual potential – potential –

primary primary energy* (PJ/a)energy* (PJ/a)

Solid Solid BiomassBiomass

forests, gardens and urban green areas forests, gardens and urban green areas biomassbiomass 500500

forest and paper industry wasteforest and paper industry waste 4040

food industry wastefood industry waste 1515

straw and other agricultural wastestraw and other agricultural waste 552552

special energy cropsspecial energy crops 1000 1000 –– 1400 1400

Gas Gas BiomassBiomass

landfill gaslandfill gas 1010

sewage treatment plant biogassewage treatment plant biogas 5555

Fluid & Fluid & Semi-fluid Semi-fluid BiomassBiomass

sewage treatment plant sedimentation wastesewage treatment plant sedimentation waste 100100

animal feacesanimal feaces 3838

TotalTotal 2440 2440 –– 2840 2840* According to study by the Association of Renewable Energy: "Analiza polskiego potencjału rozwojowego w obszarze energetyki odnawialnej, z punktu widzenia możliwości wypełnienia przez Polskę celów unijnego pakietu energetycznego 3x20"

Energy crops

Energy cropsEnergy crops are plant crops for acquiring are plant crops for acquiring biomass for energy purposes.biomass for energy purposes.

Energy cropsEnergy crops are used for producing are used for producing heat, electric energy and gas fuel (biogas).heat, electric energy and gas fuel (biogas).

Energy crops are those, that do not Energy crops are those, that do not produce food.produce food.

Polish energy farming potential

Technical potential of biomass technologies:

• 685 PJ * (190.000 GWh a year)

Potential of biomass technologies, considering active support from the government:

• 2440-2840 PJ ** (676.000-787.000 GWh a year)

Annual primary energy consumption in Poland in 2007: 4.000 PJ

* According to ECBREC data

** According to study by the Association of Renewable Energy and Politechnika Śląska: "Analiza polskiego potencjału rozwojowego w obszarze energetyki odnawialnej, z punktu widzenia możliwości wypełnienia przez Polskę celów unijnego pakietu energetycznego 3x20"

Agrienergetics development

Sugar factory

Biomassapprox. 6000 ha

(average for 1 sugar factory)

Scattered biogaspower industry

Cocombustion

approx. 0.08 TWh from

biogas and 0.03 TWh for

cocombustion

Biogas-works construction problems

• Biogass production technology is not yet fully explored;

• Technology import is very expensive;

• Complex pemrission acquisition procedures;

• Small public knowlegde about renewable energy sources;

• Lack of local acceptance for biogas-works;

• Expensive technology. Investment requires additional capital;

• Selling heat is a problem in many of the country's regions;

Support for agrienergetics

• Government biogas technology development Programs• Bonus for planting energy crops (45 €/ha)

– In 2007 Farmlands Payment and Sugar Payment Act (Dz. U. z 26 stycznia

2007r. Nr 35, poz. 217, z późn. zm.), – allows energy crops producers to receive a surcharge of 45 euro/ha – increased interest in production from farmers of energy crops – relatively small amount of manufacturers ready to sign long-lasting

contract agreements with the farmers.

• Actions initiated by Chambers of Commerce and Associations

Geothermal sources' energy annual technical potential in Poland

Energy Energy SourceSource

Acc. to Acc. to EC BRECEC BREC expertiseexpertise ""Ekonomiczne i Ekonomiczne i prawne aspekty prawne aspekty wykorzystania"wykorzystania"

Acc.Acc. to to greenhouse greenhouse gases gases emissions emissions reduction reduction strategstrategyy

Acc. to Acc. to a a rereport port prepared for prepared for the World the World BankBank

[PJ][PJ] [PJ][PJ] [PJ][PJ]

Geothermal Geothermal resourcesresources 200200 100100 approxapprox. 200. 200

Solar Solar radiationradiation 13401340 5555 370370

TotalTotal 11554040 155155 approxapprox. . 570570

Solar energy resources in Poland (1)

Solar radiation energy usage in flat-plate collectors

The most essential parameters are the annual insolation values.

(Annual solar radiation density in Poland per horizontal plane is between 950-1250 kWh/m2, average insolation is 1600 h/year)

Source: Agencja Rynku Energii SA

Pic. 1. Zoning of average annual solar radiation sums per horizontal plane unit in kWh/m2/year. Values indicate total annual solar radiation energy resources for the given region.

Solar energy resources in Poland (2)

Average annual solar radiation sums

Poland's sun batteries economic potential for usable hot water production is 24 PJ

Sun batteries potential for drying crops is 21 PJ

Source: Agencja Rynku Energii SA

Pic. 2. Average annual insolation sums, h/year for Poland's representative regions.

Solar energy conditions in Poland

• Weather conditions in Poland are characterized by uneven annual solar radiation distribution:

- 80% of the total annual insolation sum falls on 6 months

- Suns' activity during winter is shortened to only 8 h/day, and in summer it is 16 h

• Scattered radiation share in the total radiation

- above 50% annualy

- during the four months of winter – 65-73%

• Annual solar radiation density per horizontal plane is approx. 950-1250 kWh/m2

• Poland's average annual insulation sums are 1600 h

Technology development barriers

• uneven annual solar radiation distribution, especially during winter

• large investments and manufacturing costs

• no specified technology development trends

• lack of knowledge and experience necessary to prepare the projects

• negative attitude of banks towards financing (projects too small)

Government plans for the development of the energy sector

• Government plans specified in: "Założenia Polityki Energetycznej Polski do roku 2030"

• Strategic goals:– increasing the share of energy from renewable sources in the country's fuel-

energy balance to 7.5% in 2010– increasing the share of energy from renewable sources to 15% in 2020 in the

primary carriers usage structure

• Achieving the abovementioned means the necessity to perform a series of investments

Increase of RES shareIncrease of RES share

in the energy balance means:in the energy balance means:

Increased energy resources usage effectiveness,

Better environment condition thanks to the reduction of pollutant emissions to the atmosphere and water and waste production,

Increased energetic security,

Elicitation and usage of the full agricultural potential in Poland.

RES Status in 2010

• The share of renewable energy in gross national electricity consumption was at the end of 2009 5,5%5,5% instead of 7,5%7,5%

• all sources of OZE generated approx. 8.6 TWh of electricity, while gross electricity consumption at the level of the 149 TWh

• very serious concern that the objective in the field of renewable energy development

• 2,5 TWh of electricity from RES is missing

Status 2010• most of the energy from OZE comes from large

power system using a co-combustion of biomass with coal in power stations and power gives the system currently in Poland, 4,2 TWh.

• hydroelectricity provide 2.4 TWh, wind production is 1 TWh of electricity,

• the rest of the renewable energy comes from the combustion of biomass and biogas in industrial plants and small sources.

Future until 2020

• From 1 January 2011, Poland begins to pursue the objective of 15% share of renewable energy sources in total primary energy in 2020.

• Directive 2009/28/EC -national plan of action in the field of renewable energy sources (NAPS)

• first verification of the progress in 2012.

Renewable Energy Association

www.seo.org.pl