renewable energy workshop what’s driving the shift to renewable energy ?
TRANSCRIPT
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Renewable EnergyRenewable EnergyWorkshopWorkshop
What’s Driving the Shift What’s Driving the Shift
ToTo
Renewable Energy ?Renewable Energy ?
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The Global PictureThe Global Picture
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Global SystemGlobal System “Everything is Connected to Everything Else”“Everything is Connected to Everything Else”
Sustainability
Water
Population
Poverty-Wealth
Energy
Climate ChangeHuman Health
Biodiversity
Land - Food
Business
GlobalizationTechnology
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It is a Complex PuzzleIt is a Complex Puzzle
Energy (Heat, Light, Travel)
Water (Life, Fun, Waste) Land
(Food, Factories, Families)
Population Increase
Demands on Ecosystem
Water Pollution/Depletion
Energy Depletion &Air Pollution
Land Abuse/Fragmentation
Biodiversity Shift
Overuse & AbuseLaw of the Commons
False Sense ofSecurity !
Climate Change
“A Stressor”
Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
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Law of the Commons Law of the Commons System Stress System Stress
Limited Limited ResourcesResources
EnergyEnergy WaterWater FoodFood HabitatHabitat
Who falls off the Train ?
Planetary SystemPlanetary System
Those Who Fail to Seek and Capture Opportunities through
Continuous LearningBio-Trend Systems Inc.
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Knowledge Can Change Everything!!Knowledge Can Change Everything!!
The Benefit to Companies and Communities+
Being well prepared and positively positionedto change threats to opportunities….
Don’t Blink Opportunity Moves Quickly !
Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
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Global ThreatsGlobal Threats
• Climate Change
• Population
• Energy Status
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ClimateChange
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Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate Change++++++++++++++++++++
“A Legacy of Progress”“A Legacy of Progress”
“During the past 20,000 years, a 5 to 6C change in temperature dramatically altered regional distribution of
forests, prairies and wetlands….
The past 150 years has witnessed the 1st, and now the 2nd, Industrial Revolution
During the next 75 years, or less, we may be facing temperature increases in Ontario that equal or eclipse
these levels – our thirst for the fossil fuels and what they provide is contributing significantly to this situation.
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CO2 Rise & Temperature - 2000CO2 Rise & Temperature - 2000
CO 2 Temperature oC
60 ppm increaseIn 50 Years 1.8 oF increase
globally
A Disconcerting Trend Rate of CO2 Increase
1950 – 1990 1.0 ppm 1990 – 2000 1.8 ppm 2001 – 2005 3.0 ppm
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Climate in OntarioClimate in Ontario In Just 35 – 55 Years ?!In Just 35 – 55 Years ?!
7.2 – 9.0°F
5.4 – 7.2°F
3.6 – 5.4°F
Boreal
Great LakesSt. Lawrence
Oak-Hickoryor Prairie ?
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Implications of System StressImplications of System Stress
Climate-induced changes, particularly over a short time frame, represent a significant stress – one that is likely to be expressed by significant mortality of species incapable of relatively rapid adjustment
Stress pre-disposes the terrestrial systems to attack by insects, disease and/or fire.
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Stress is Cumulative, Stress is Cumulative, andand Once Stressed, Once Stressed,a System is More Vulnerable to Subsequent Stressa System is More Vulnerable to Subsequent Stress
DroughtInsect Attack
Fungus Attack
Death
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Population
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PopulationPopulationAdditional Tid-BitsAdditional Tid-Bits
Even if birth rate declines the net affect is upward due to: • life expectancy today’s baby girl• “fix your body” technology
China + India = 2,500,000,000 Growth = 1.2% / year. So?
0
12
3
4
5
6
78
9
10
1950 1975 2000 2050
Population - Billions
Global Population doubled in 40 years,will it double again by 2050 ??
?
Impact on Finite Resources“Energy”
Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
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Energy
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World Oil Production 1930-2050World Oil Production 1930-2050Cheap Oil is Going…GoingCheap Oil is Going…Going….….
10
20
70
60
50
40
30
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Mill
ion
s of
Bar
rels
/ D
ay
Mean-Case Scenario
U.S.Peaked
Rate of declineis based on
past post-peakdeclines
Not include: shale oil , tar sands, extra heavy oils, deep ocean drilling, etc.
Rate of increase istied to population
and industrialization
KuwaitTo Peak
GlobalPeak
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20 40 60 80 100
Absolute maximumbefore oil runs out
Best currentguess
Range of likelihood
Years Remaining
OilRemaining
How Long Will it Really Last ??Population Since Oil 2 to 6 billion
“1st Trillion Gone”
Population Next 40 Years 6 to 9 billion“ Remaining Trillion ???”
PlusIndustrializationof China, India
& Others
Peak Time
Not include: shale oil , tar sands, extra heavy oils, deep ocean drilling etc.
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So, Is The Party Over ?So, Is The Party Over ?
My father rode a camel I drove a car
My son fly’s a jetMy grandson will ride a camel
Ole Saudi Proverb
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Energy ChoicesEnergy Choices
RenewalEnergy
7%
Petroleum30%
Nuclear ElectricPower
8%
Coal23%
Natural Gas24%
Solar 1%
Wood 38%
Alcohol Fuel 1%
Waste 8%
Wind 1%
ConventionalHydroelectric
46%
Geothermal 2%
DirtyStuff
DepletionImminent
$ &Fear
Global“Cheap”Peak isClose
?
20% of Canada’s Natural Gas is used to extract tar sands oil !!
5 Million Chinese work in 25,000coal mines 70% of the Energy
plus 25% of Alberta’sfresh water supply !
What AboutThe
Tar Sands ?
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Renewable Energy in OntarioRenewable Energy in Ontario“Growing the Percent of Renewable“Growing the Percent of Renewable
(& Recyclable) Options” (& Recyclable) Options”
Geothermal – Heat
Tide & Wave
Biomass/Biogas - Heat
Micro-Hydro
Biomass/Biogas - Electric
Solar Heat
Solar Electric
Wind Off-Shore
Wind On-Shore
Biofuels
Geothermal – Electric
Ene
rgy
Req
uire
d
2005 2020
What’s the Strategy ??
Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
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So, are So, are ““WE”WE” Ready to Ready to Change ?Change ?
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Top Oil ConsumersTop Oil Consumers“ Where Does Canada Sit” ?“ Where Does Canada Sit” ?
0
10
20
30
US China Japan Russia India Brazil Canada
2002 2025
But! Per capita Canada is 3rd
Mill
ions
of B
arre
ls p
er D
ay
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North American Culture For EnergyNorth American Culture For Energy
Not Conservation Friendly Motivated to Change…???
More Efficient
UrbanSprawl
Greener
Less Dispersed
Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
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We are Not Afraid of a ChallengeWe are Not Afraid of a Challengeandand
We are Creative !!!We are Creative !!!
There’s Plenty of Oil !What Oil Peak ?
The North AmericanCompromise
Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
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Making it WorkMaking it Work
Expert TeamTeam
PreparednessTeam
Due Diligence
Business DevelopmentBusiness ManagementProject FinancingMarkets & MarketingBiomass ProcurementPermitting/RegulationsMechanical EngineerChemical EngineerBiology/EcologyEtc……
Assets & InfrastructureTaxes and IncentivesMunicipal ZoningRelevant ResourcesNIMBY ConcernsSector-Specific Attributes• Bio-Energy• RemediationLiaison ServicesEtc……..
You are the Local ExpertDue Diligence• Business Acumen • Markets• Supply• Technology/Product• Financing• Competitors• Credibility & TrustEtc……
Prepare – Position – Promote Bio-Trend Systems Inc.
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Parting MessagesParting Messages Energy demand will trump supply – Prices will riseEnergy demand will trump supply – Prices will rise
Environmental consequences of Fossil Fuels are unacceptableEnvironmental consequences of Fossil Fuels are unacceptable
Threats can be Opportunities – SME’s can Thrive and help mitigate Threats can be Opportunities – SME’s can Thrive and help mitigate price increasesprice increases
Learning Teams (Communities of Practice) are Essential for Learning Teams (Communities of Practice) are Essential for residential/farm cooperatives, companies and communitiesresidential/farm cooperatives, companies and communities
Conserve 1Conserve 1st st - You Get the Biggest Bank for Your Buck - You Get the Biggest Bank for Your Buck
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Parting MessagesParting Messages Explore cooperative ventures Explore cooperative ventures Optimize Your Energy Solution Optimize Your Energy Solution
Employ Integrated Renewable Energy SystemsEmploy Integrated Renewable Energy Systems
Focus on Renewables and RecyclablesFocus on Renewables and Recyclables
Accommodate and Enable Small Business DevelopmentAccommodate and Enable Small Business Development
Be progressive, patient, practical and persistentBe progressive, patient, practical and persistent
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A New Day has Come !A New Day has Come !
Selected Readings
1. Boom, Bust & Echo. David K Foot
2. Weather Makers. Tim Flannery
3. ZOOM. Iain Carson & V.V. Vaitheeswaran
4. A Thousand Barrels A Second. Peter Tertzakian
5. Why Mexicans Don’t Drink Molson. Andrea Mandel-Cambell
6. Fueling the Future. Heintzman
7. The Long Emergency. James Kunstler
8. Dry Spring. Chris Wood