renewable heating technologies 2008 - … solar thermal...renewable heating technologies 2008 andrew...
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RenewableHeating Technologies
2008
Andrew GilesAbdel Eljidi
14th May 2009
Starting: 15:00 hrs Brussels Time (GMT+1)14:00 hrs UK Time (GMT)09:00 hrs New York Time
slides will be recorded and presented on www.solarthermalworld.org
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Who are we?
Andrew Giles, MA
General ManagerBSRIA - World Market Intelligence (WMI)
At BSRIA for 24 years
Abdel Eljidi
Senior ManagerBSRIA - World Market Intelligence (WMI)
At BSRIA for 4 years
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Heating and renewables
Air conditioning and refrigeration
IT cablingFM and contracting
• Turnover £2.1 million ($3.8m)• 60% market reports• 40% private client
• Research across 94 countries
• 30 permanent multi-lingual staff
• Offices in China, France, Spain, Germany, partners in other countries
• Global network of associates
Water conservation & Sanitary ware
BSRIA Worldwide Market IntelligenceBSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
HVAC LightingFire AlarmCCTVAccess Control
Energy Management
Central Workstation
Remote Access
HVAC LightingFire AlarmCCTVAccess Control
Energy Management
Central Workstation
Remote Access
Intelligent Building controls - Security / Fire / Environmental
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Introduction§ Europe: 14 countries
Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, UK, Croatia, Hungary, Poland
§ World: Europe (14) plus U.S.A., China, Brazil, South Korea.
§ Flat plate + Vacuum tubes (only glazed collectors)
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Multiclient Methodolgy – 2 pronged attack
RESEARCH FIELDWORKPrimary research§ Annual study now in fifth year§ Face to face interviews in every
country (“expert to expert”)§ Telephone interviews§ Database from headquarters§ Global market specialist§ Strong QA procedures§ Country specialists
Secondary: Online and desk research
GLOBAL ANALYST§ Abdel Eljidi (global market
specialist) attends exhibitions, conferences, seminars
§ Media monitoring§ Constant discussion with
network of industry experts» Japanese contacts» Utilities» Institues» Manufacturers
§ Web research ( products and companies)
§ QA research reports
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What is the impact of alternative heating technologies
on traditional heating markets?
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Solar Thermal markets update 2008
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Changing nature of the HVAC industry in 2008/9
§ Lower growth of boiler sales in large European markets
§ Strong growth of renewable varies across technologies and markets
§ Micro-CHP in field trial phase in Europe 2009/10
§ German solar market is booming with new subsidies in place
§ Investment in renewable technologies strong in 2008
§ Stronger presence of Japanese AC companies
§ Decreasing heating load for space heating in the new build insulation
§ Likely to see some consolidation in HVAC market in 2009
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Market Drivers• Concern fossil fuel supplies maybe disrupted (Russian winter blues, political instability in the Middle East)• Prices of oil/ gas likely to increase to similar peaks in 2008• Construction slowing down –US & Europe• Nuclear energy is becoming popular as alternative • Increasing environmental awareness to climate change• More stricter building regulations (EPBD, EuP, 2020…) • Race by HVAC mfrs to develop renewable products/ partnerships • Various regional/ national subsidies to kick start the market!• Promotions by utilities• The role of some utilities changing from energy supply to energy management
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Diversification on all fronts
Renewables Specialists
Air conditionin
gHeating
Heat emitters
Air conditioning
M-CHPHeat Pumps
Utilities changing …
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Diversification of Leading Boiler Manufacturers, 2008
Boilers Water Heaters A/C Solar
ThermalHeat
pumpsHeat
Recovery Biomass Solar PV Micro-CHP / FC
Bosch Therm. trials
Vaillant Group R & D
Viessmann 2007 trialsMTS trialsBAXI ?? ??De Dietrich-Remeha ?? ?? trialsRielloFerroliStiebel Eltron R & D
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Key findings
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13Solar supply is much more than a matter of adding some solar collectors
Plenty of extra pipework, valves, pumps and controls
Impact on SOLAR THERMAL
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Various Incentives
National Federal/Regional
Green Loans
public agencies
Utilities
Tax credits
Cheaper tariffs
Feed in tariffs
loans
Grants
Lower VAT
Local
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Selected Incentives schemes§ Different situation regarding incentives in various countries.
Important driver together with legislation.§ Germany, Austria,Italy, France among others offer incentives.
National and regional.§ Germany: MAP (“Marktanreizprogramm zu Gunsten
erneuerbarer Energien“) by BAFA (minimum €410 per installation)
§ France: 50% tax credits§ Italy: 55% tax credit up to 60,000€ (uncertainy for the future)§ Austria: varies from 600€ to over 3,000 €§ No incentives in Greece, Turkey and limited in the UK§ But in some countries (Spain, Israel) solar is becoming
mandatory
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World markets – Solar Thermal
Worldwide Reach
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World markets – Heat Pumps
Limited penetration
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China €1006.5M
Others €93.7M
Turkey €10.5MSouth Korea
€9.8M
Poland €9.4M
UK €8.3M
France €6.3M
Others €16.0M Germany
€22.1M
Italy €11.3M
Vacuum tube, value, 2007/8
€ 1,100 million
18.9 million m2
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Flat plate collector, value 2007/8
Others €530.2M
China €252.0M
Germany €113.3M
Spain €59.8M
Brazil €55.8M
Italy €51.0M
Greece €46.6M
Turkey €45.3M
France €41.4M
Austria €30.5M
USA €26.1M
Others €60.4M
€ 782 million
6.3 million m2
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US Solar Water Heating Market Trends & Forecasts 2003-2010
Sq.meters
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Excluding swimming pool collectors
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USA solar collector market 2008
Alternate Energy
Technologies
SunEarth
Radco Products
Heliodyne All others
Type of collectors Volume m2 Value € million
(at MSP)
Flat plate collectors 200,560 31.3 Vacuum tubes 8,590 1.7 Total 209,150 33.0
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European flat plate market size, in€ million (MSP), 2008
2008: € 546 million
UK3%
Croatia0.3%
Hungary0.3% Poland
2%
Austria6% Belgium
2% France9%
Germany28%
Greece9%
Italy14%
Portugal2%
Turkey8%
Switzerland2%Spain15%
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European vacuum tubes market size, in € million (MSP), 2008
2008: € 100.4 million
Switzerland1%
Portugal1%
Spain4%
Turkey10%
UK11%
Croatia0.4%
Hungary2% Poland
14%Belgium
2%
Austria1% France
8%
Germany27%
Greece2%
Italy17%
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European solar thermal market(14 countries), in thousand m2, 2003-2012
0.0
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
5,000.0
6,000.0
7,000.0
8,000.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F
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European flat plate market, 2008, volume in m2
2008: 3,751,000 m2
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
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European vacuum tubes market, 2008, volume in m2
2008: 596,000 m2
020,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000
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Solar market trends and forecasts,2003-2012
50%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
German
y
Turkey
Greece
Austria
Spain
South
Korea
France Ita
lyUSA
Poland
Switzerl
and UK
Belgium
Portug
al
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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European, type of circulation, 2008
Thermosiphon34%
Drainback2%
Forced Circulation (with
pump)64%
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European end-users, 2007
Residential new build36%
Residential replacement
10%
Residential first time installation
42%
Non-residential replacement
1%
Non-residential new build
5%
Non-residential first time
installation6%
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European applications, 2007
Commercial space heating (combi)
1%
Swimming pools (excluding unglazed
collectors)2%Commercial hot water
heating9%
Domestic space heating (combi)
19%
Domestic hot water heating
69%
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Europe, type of installation, 2007
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Austria
Croatia
Greece Ita
ly
Poland
Portug
al
Hunga
ry
Belgium
German
y
France
Spain
Switzerl
and
Turkey UK
Stand alone installation –unassisted by other heating systemsSolar thermal system combined with heat pump –total renewable solutionSolar thermal system assisted by electric water heaterSolar thermal system assisted by a boiler (Gas/ oil/ Biomass)
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Germany, flat plate market shares, 2008
Solvis
Sunset (Chromagen)
Weishaupt (Schweizer)
Other Manu-facturers
Pro Solar
Vaillant
Thermosolar
Broetje (Baxi)
Schueco
GC Group
Sonnenkraft
Wagner
Other Importers
BBT
Viessmann
Wolf (Centrosolar)
2008: 1,850,000 m2
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Germany, vacuum tubes, 2008
Wagner
Consolar Solvis
BBT
Others
Paradigma
Solar TechnologiesElco-
Kloeckner
Vaillant
Viessmann
2008: 160,000 m2
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UK flat plates, market share, in volume, 2008
Total: 47,900 m2
Solar Tw in
Genersys
Wolf
Viessmann
Filsol
Others
AES Solar
Sundw el
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UK vacuum tubes, market share, in volume, 2008
Total: 30,000 m2
Collectra AG (by Smart Energy)
Others
Vaillant
Sonnenkraft
Viessmann
Rayotec
Kingspan Renew ables
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Commercial and IndustrialApplications
Untapped market!
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Opportunities in the Commercial and Industrial Markets
§ Natural gas/ oil remain the main fuel but desire to phase out oil systems§ Collective Solar market growing but focus on hot water§ Share of renewables in industrial applications very low, mostly PV§ Large capacity high temp. heat pumps (CO2) limited to residential use§ Current various CSP systems still too costly and have limitations§ Restricted due to space required: cannot fixed securely on roofs or integrated
in the same way as ordinary flat plate/ evacuated tubes collectors§ Low awareness to solar heat potential in industrial/ commercial segments§ Several industries could benefit from medium to high temp renewables
systems, where pressure on reducing energy costs is high.§ Lack of incentives for commercial and industrial processes
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Key Target Applications for high efficiency collectors
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Solar coolingMarket overview
» Currently over 100 systems installed in Europe» Most of solar suppliers interested in this segment » Small number of manufacturers, mostly small/ medium companies <10 » A combination of absorption/ adsorption chillers below 100kW » For optimum efficiency solar collectors have limited use depending on location» Vacuum tubes offer better potential but have short life span (fragile)» Southern European (Italy, Spain, Greece) key target for market deployment» The hotel and leisure industry, public buildings offer the largest potential» Can reduce pressure on the electricity grid during peak times in the summer» Clean, no refrigerants» Commercial launch is dependent on higher fossil fuel costs and politics
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Solar cooling 1Attractiveness of Solar cooling:
»The technology appeals to end users due to lack of harmful refrigerants no GHG»Can reduce pressure on the electricity grid during peak times in the summer»Commercial launch is dependent on higher fossil fuel costs and politics»Most manufacturers planning commercial launch in 2009/10
Current solar assisted cooling systems:»Climatewell: 10 kW, suitable for existing flat plat collectors <80C»Sonnenklima (Suninverse): 10kW cooling, works on absorption principle with temp from 55C to 105C, suitable for small buildings below 200m2 »Sortech AG (7.5kW)»Yazaki (Japan): now with fully fledged European office, mostly focused on OEM»Solarctic
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Solar cooling 2
Potential competition:
»Cheap and efficient electrical heat pumps subject to cheap electricity price »Gas engine heat pumps (GHP): can do cooling + hot water –proven technology»GHP are successfully promoted in Italy, Spain, and recently Germany and France»GHP are supplied by some leading A/C manufacturers: Sanyo, Aisin, MHI »Hybrid systems: Gas absorption systems: Rotarktika (Spain), Vaillant (Germany)»Hybrid biomass systems: cheap fuel as an alternative to solar thermal in low radiation areas (Austria, Germany)
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Process heat§ High potential in segment below 300¢ºC
» Several industries could benefit§ Currently lacks awareness§ Almost 1/3 of process heat is below 200C, suitable for roof installation§ Current systems:
» Linear Fresnel: PSA AG (Germany)» Requires large area of collectors» Not suitable for roof installations» Vulnerable to wind» Peak power: 500W/m2» For solar cooling: 1kWp/2m2
§ R&D on reducing thermal loss of flat plate collectors (70-120C)§ R&D into heat storage (sorption heat storage)§ Large scale solar for district heating <1% (some 15 plants so far >500m2 area)§ Planned commercialisation 2009/10
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Big Changes on the way …
•Solar thermal to be mandatory in new buildings •Changing focus, from new build to renovation•Big opportunities in the non-residential market•Evolution towards mass market •Energy storage becoming important•Hybrid solution on the rise –solar thermal + HP•Micro-CHP – a boiler progression but likely to remain niche systems