renewables for sustainable development · mixed signals from today’senergy context global co 2...

Source: IEA 2019 – All rights reserved

Renewables for Sustainable Development

Keisuke Sadamori

Director, Energy Markets and Security, International Energy Agency

IEA

Symposium du SER, Paris, 6 February 2019


Mixed signals from today’s energy context

Global CO2 emissions are on the rise again indicating growing disconnect between climate goals and energy-market trends

Oil demand continues to grow, with increasing shares of long-haul transport &

petrochemicals

Natural gas is on the rise: China’s rapid demand growth is erasing talk of a ‘gas glut’

Renewable electricity is growing fast, driven by strong solar PV growth

while other key technologies & efficiency policies need a push

For the first time, global population without access to electricity fell below 1 billion

Electricity is carrying great expectations, but questions remain over the extent of its reach in meeting demand & how the power systems of the future will operate

Policy makers need well-grounded insights about different possible futures & how they come about.


100 200 300 400 500Mtoe

Modern bioenergy: the overlooked giant of renewables

Total final energy consumption

from renewables, 2017

Modern bioenergy is the only renewable source that can provide electricity, direct heat and transport fuels

Two thirds of modern bioenergy heat is used in industry

50%

9%

4%6% Modern

bioenergy

Hydropower

Wind

Solar PV

Other renewables

Total final energy consumption

from renewables by sector, 2017

Electricity fromrenewables

Electricity

Heat

Transport

31%


Total renewable energy consumption is expected to increase by almost 30% over 2018-2023,

covering 40% of global energy demand growth

Total energy consumption growth of renewables over 2012-23

What comes next in renewables worldwide growth?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Modern bioenergy Solar PV Wind Hydropower

Mtoe

2012-17 2018-23 2012-17 2018-23 2012-17 2018-23 2012-17 2018-23

Distributed PV

Distributed PV

Offshore


Renewable net capacity growth by country

Renewables account for 70% of global capacity expansion

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2000-2005 2006-11 2012-17 2018-23

Capacity growth (GW)

Other

Brazil

Japan

Africa and Middle East

India

European Union

United States

China

Europe’s forecast revised up due to new auction announcements and new 2030 targets;

US growth revised down due to tax reform and trade tariffs; India’s expansion stable


Electricity contributes two-thirds of renewables growth

But electricity accounts for less than 20% of total final energy consumption

Share of renewables in the electricity, heat and transport sectors

Renewables share of energy consumption increases by one-fifth

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

%

Renewable electricity Renewable heat

Renewable transport % of renewables in total energy consumption


PV growth off grid will deliver initial electricity services to estimated 30 million people.

Growth could be 50% faster with investment risk-mitigation mechanisms

Solar PV to quadruple in Sub-Saharan Africa

SSA cumulative solar PV capacity additions per segment

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

GW

Utility-scale Commercial Residential Off-grid PV accelerated


5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coal

GasNuclear

Solar PV

Wind

Other renewables

Share of electricity generation by source in the WEO NPS in the European Union, 2017-40

Wind to become the largest electricity source in the EU

Wind electricity generation in the EU more than triples to 1 100 TWh by 2040; the rapid increase of

variable forms of generation calls for new approaches to system integration


A sustainable development pathway is where we need to go

A wide variety of technologies are necessary to meet goals. By 2040 in the SDS wind and solar PV to

become the largest source of electricity generation and installed capacity respectively

Global energy-related CO2 emissions

16

20

24

28

32

36

2010 2020 2030 2040

Central Scenario

Sustainable

Development Scenario

Efficiency

Renewables

Fuel-switching

CCS

Other

Nuclear

44%

36%

2%6%9%2%

Gt CO2


Renewables to account two thirds of global power generation under SDS by 2040.

Solar becomes #1 in terms of cumulative installed capacity with 30% of world total

Total power generation in the Sustainable Development Scenario

Renewables to transform the electricity mix

Buildings Industry

Electricity

Transport

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2017 2030 2040

TWh

Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Solar Hydropower Others


Multiple benefits towards achieving SDGs

Carbon dioxide emissions(Gt CO2)

Population without access to

modern energy (billion people)

Premature deaths related

to air pollution (billion)

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Electricity Clean cooking

1

2

3

4

5

Indoor Outdoor

10

20

30

40

CO2 emissions

Benefits of the Sustainable Development Scenario vs. New Policies Scenario, 2040

In an integrated approach, universal energy access can be reached while also

achieving climate goals and reducing air pollutant emissions, at little extra cost

SDG 13 SDG 7 SDG 3


Conclusions

Paris Agreement and COP24 Paris rule book will require significant efforts on energy

efficiency and renewable energy

There is no single solution to turn emissions around: renewables, efficiency & a host

of innovative technologies, including storage, CCUS & hydrogen, are all required

The rapid growth of electricity brings huge opportunities; but market designs need to

deliver both electricity and flexibility for secure and cost-effective transitions

Greater use of bioenergy, solar, wind, & other renewables is needed beyond the

electricity sector, including through hydrogen-based feedstocks and fuels

The IEA is proud to provide all energy stakeholders with timely data, rigorous analysis,

an all-of-technology approach and real-world solutions

renewables for sustainable development · mixed signals from today’senergy context global co 2...

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