report chamber of shipping final copy
TRANSCRIPT
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TRADE FLOWS
IN THE NORTH
INDIAN OCEAN
AND THE
ECONOMIC
IMPACTS OF
SOMALI PIRACY
Final report
2011-03-30
Produced for:
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ContentsExecutive summary .................................................................................................................... 1
Container Trade. ..................................................................................................................... 1
Energy Shipping. ..................................................................................................................... 1Cars and Trucks. ...................................................................................................................... 1
Conclusion. ............................................................................................................................. 1
Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 2
Cargo categories and ship types ................................................................................................ 2
Total trade overview .................................................................................................................. 4
Containerised cargo ................................................................................................................ 7
Cars and trucks ....................................................................................................................... 8
Dry bulk cargo ......................................................................................................................... 9
Liquid bulk cargo ................................................................................................................... 10
Cruise ships ........................................................................................................................... 12
Trade with South East Africa ................................................................................................ 13
Cargo at risk .............................................................................................................................. 14
Diversion costs ......................................................................................................................... 15
Uncertainties ............................................................................................................................ 17
Copyright IHS Global Limited 2011. All rights reserved.
Limitation of liability:
IHS Global Limited Ltd., its affiliates and subsidiaries and their respective shareholders, officers, employees or agents are,
individually and collectively, referred to in this clause as the IHS Group. The IHS Group assumes no responsibility and shall
not be liable to any person for any loss, damage or expense caused by reliance on the information or advice in this
document howsoever provided, unless that person has signed a contract with the relevant IHS Group entity for the
provision of this information or advice and in that case, any responsibility or liability is exclusively on the terms and
conditions set out in that contract.
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IntroductionThe objective of this report is to describe the scope of seaborne trade flows in the north
Indian Ocean and the economic impacts of Somali piracy. The approach used has been to
assess the total trade between Europe and those countries that either have borders to theIndian Ocean or are so located that ships would have to pass the Indian Ocean to get from
them to Europe.
The trade assessment has been matched with records of ship movements in order to see
which routes have been used for this trade.
Cargo categories and ship typesThis report covers trade in goods that may be carried by ship but does not include goods that
are exclusively carried by other transport modes. The goods have been divided into different
cargo categories to match the seaborne trade alternatives that exist.
The cargo categories covered in this report are containerised general cargo, vehicles (cars
and trucks), dry bulk commodities (mainly ores, coal, grain, scrap and steel) and liquid bulk
commodities such as crude oil, refined oil, gas and chemicals. The source for the trade
statistics is the World Trade Service provided by IHS Global Insight.
The ship types that have been included for the carriage of the above mentioned cargoes are
container carriers, general cargo carriers, vehicle ro-ro carriers, dry bulk carriers, oil tankers,chemical tankers and gas tankers (LNG & LPG). In addition, there is section on the cruise
shipping market. The ships characteristics have been based on Lloyds Register of Ships and
the ship movements have been derived from AISLive1 data; both sources are provided by IHS
Fairplay.
The assessments comprise all seaborne trade and ship movements between North, West
and South Europe and the regions of East Africa, the east Middle East and Asia, comprising
South Asia, East Asia, and the South Pacific (Australia and New Zealand) as illustrated in
Figure 1 below. These countries have borders on the Indian Ocean or are so located that
ships serving them have to pass through the Indian Ocean to get from them to Europe
meaning these ships are within the reach of Somali pirates.
The route shown in red passes through the Suez Canal. In most cases this is the preferred
route since it is the shortest distance. However, using it means that ships pass through the
Gulf of Aden and off the coast of Somalia and are therefore exposed to the risks of piracy.
1
Restricted by the IMO regulation on the requirement to carry an AIS transponder, which generally includes allseagoing cargo vessels of 300gt and above and all passenger vessels.
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The risk area has increased as the pirates have extended their operations to the entire North
Indian Ocean.
The alternative route is shown in blue. Ships taking this route avoid the Gulf of Aden and
instead go via the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. This route is longer in many cases
significantly longer resulting in an increase of transport time and costs.
It is important to note that the alternative route is only available as an option to ships
trading in the South Pacific, East Asia or the eastern part of the South Asia region. Trade
from the major regions described here as East Africa, the east Middle East and the west of
South Asia are unable to avoid passage through the North Indian Ocean, consequently trade
and ships from these regions have no safe route out but through the high risk area.
Figure 1: Map showing the regions and routes referred to in this report
The following sections describe the volume, value and route choice of trade using different
types of ship. This is followed by a section on the costs associated with diversion around the
Cape of Good Hope.
The Source for Maritime Information and Insight
Preferred route via Suez & the Gulf of Aden
Alternative route via the Cape of Good Hope
N&W
EUROPE
S EUROPE
EAST
ASIASOUTH
ASIA
SOUTH
PACIFIC
EAST
MIDDLE
EAST
EAST
AFRICA
Two ships out of three passing the dangerzone are carrying European cargo
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Total trade overview
Total seaborne trade totaled $1,159Bn. Containerised cargo $992Bn Total UK trade reached $147Bn of which $130Bn in containers
Europes imports in 2009
totalled $686Bn. All kinds of
commodity were imported, but
clothes, electronics,
manufactured goods, cars,
energy and construction
commodities dominated.
Figure 2: Europes imports in 2009, billion dollars
European exports reached$473Bn of which special
industrial machinery, engines,
turbines, cars, chemicals, drugs,
medicines, iron and steel
accounted for a significant part.
Figure 3: Europes exports in 2009, billion dollars
Table 1 provides an aggregate view of the total European trade with the regions defined
above in 2009. All in all, there were 386M tonnes of cargo transported by sea and the total
The Source for Maritime Information and InsightN&W
EUROPE
S EUROPE
EAST
ASIASOUTH
ASIA
SOUTH
PACIFIC
EAST
MIDDLE
EAST
EAST
AFRICA
Clothes
Electronics
Manufactured goods
Cars
Energy commodities
Construction commodities
...etc
$686 Bn
The Source for Maritime Information and InsightN&W
EUROPE
S EUROPE
EAST
ASIASOUTH
ASIA
SOUTH
PACIFIC
EAST
MIDDLE
EAST
EAST
AFRICASpecial industrial machinery
Engines & turbinesCars
Chemicals
Drugs & medicines
Iron & steel ......etc
$473 Bn
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value of that cargo amounted to $1,159Bn. Imports to Europe dominated in both volume
and value.
Containerised general cargo was by far the largest cargo category in monetary terms,
amounting to $992Bn. Liquid bulk cargoes accounted for $85Bn and 130M tonnes. Vehicles,
such as cars and trucks, are voluminous high value cargo and the value of their transport
reached $62Bn in 2009. There were 80M tonnes of dry bulk cargo shipped between the
regions in 2009, which is a significant operation in volume terms.
Table 1: European trade with Asia, eastern Middle East and East Africa shipped either via the Gulf of Aden or the Cape of
Good Hope, 2009
Of the total transported, 82% by value and 66% by volume passed through the area of the
Gulf of Aden. That means goods with a value of as much as $952Bn were exposed to the risk
of piracy.
Containerised cargo was the highest value category of the cargoes that were transported
around the Cape of Good Hope in 2009, accounting for $151Bn of the $207bn on this route.
Containerised cargoes between South Europe and Southeast Africa had the highest share of
the total containerised trade going via the Cape. This is also the region with the shortest
deviation distance. In volume terms, however, dry bulk cargoes dominated on the Cape
route, with 70M tonnes being carried.
Thousand tonnes, 2009 Imports Exports Total UK
Containerised general cargo 97,015 74,078 171,093 23,445
Cars and trucks 2,207 2,069 4,276 522
Dry bulk cargo 61,259 18,626 79,885 9,806
Liquid bulk cargo 110,421 20,436 130,857 7,773
Total 270,903 115,209 386,111 41,546
$Bn, 2009 Imports Exports Total UK
Containerised general cargo $580 $411 $992 $130
Cars and trucks $31 $31 $62 $7
Dry bulk cargo $12 $7 $20 $3
Liquid bulk cargo $62 $23 $85 $7
Total $686 $473 $1,159 $147
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Table 2 presents the trade that cannot avoid the Somali piracy via diversion, i.e. trade with
eastern Middle East, western part of South Asia and East Africa.
$275Bn or 24% of the total value must continue to trade through the high risk area. More than 90% of total liquid bulk cargo imports cannot avoid piracy.
Table 2: European trade with South Asia, eastern Middle East and East Africa, 2009
Thousand tonnes, 2009 Imports Exports Total UK
Containerised general cargo 21,193 24,162 45,355 6,102
Cars and trucks 120 869 989 124
Dry bulk cargo 3,022 13,706 16,728 1,436
Liquid bulk cargo 100,941 7,612 108,553 4,231
Total 125,275 46,350 171,625 11,892
$Bn, 2009 Imports Exports Total UK
Containerised general cargo $74 $134 $209 $29
Cars and trucks $1 $10 $11 $1
Dry bulk cargo $2 $3 $5 $1
Liquid bulk cargo $45 $6 $51 $3
Total $122 $153 $275 $34
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Containerised cargo
Europes containerised trade totaled $992Bn At least $840Bn exposed to risk of piracy The average ship from East Asia is a >$100 million investment that carries $430
million worth of cargo each time it passes the Gulf of Aden Red Ensign flagged ships made 111 trips to Europe
Since the introduction about half a century ago the use of containers in the global transport
system has developed strongly. The large service network makes it possible to ship goods
across the world at a low cost. Today, most types of cargo are to varying degrees
transported in containers ranging from high value electronics to low value scrap steel or
recycled paper.
In 2009, the year of the great recession, Europes containerized trade totaled $992Bn.
Imported goods dominated with $580Bn and about 1/3 of the goods were either wearing
apparel or various kinds of machinery or equipment such as computers or mobile phones.
European exports of containerised goods reached $411Bn of which more than half were
sophisticated machinery, equipment, engines, steel or medicines. High value consumer
goods is another export goods category that is of importance.
The share of the traffic that passed through the Gulf of Aden was 85%, indicating that some
$840Bn worth of cargo was exposed to the risks involved in passing that area.
Table 3: European trade in containerised cargo, 2009
Trade with countries in East Asia clearly dominated and China was by far the largest trading
partner.
The share of the total cargo carried by ships belonging to any of the Red Ensign Group2
vessels is calculated to almost 12M tonnes of cargo for container vessels. This equates to
$69Bn.
2The Red Ensign Group, in addition to the United Kingdom consists of the shipping registers of each of the
following: Anguilla, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Falkland Islands, Gibraltar, Guernsey, StHelena, Isle of Man, Jersey, Montserrat and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
East Asia
East Mid
East SE Africa South Asia
South
Pacific Total
Trips to
Europe by
Red Ensign
ships
Trade: European imports & exports
Million $ $744,753 $96,494 $22,996 $89,088 $38,379 $991,710
Thousand tonnes 117,220 20,156 6,653 18,546 8,518 171,093
of which transported by Red Ensign
flagged vessels $50,490 $8,834 $355 $9,204 $0 $68,883 111
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Cars and trucks
European exports match imports. Cars and trucks to a value of $46Bn were at risk of piracy
Imports and exports of different kind of vehicles are mainly handled by purpose-built ro-ro
carriers, which go under different descriptions such as vehicle ro-ro carriers, pure car carriers
(PCC) or pure car and truck carriers (PCTC).
The largest ships carry the equivalent of more than 8,000 cars per trip and the average one
on the route carry about 6,000. The cargo value of such a shipment exceeds $100 million. In
2009 there were more than 250 voyages to Europe and equally many in the other direction.
Countries in North Western Europe lead the exports with Germany, UK and France at the top
followed by Slovakia and Sweden. Imports are to a large extent taken from Japan and South
Korea.
Europe imports more vehicles than it exports, but the average value of exported vehicles is
higher so this trade is the only one that is balanced - $31Bn in both directions.
In 2009, 4.3M tonnes of vehicles were transported between the defined regions, indicating
that the number of vehicles carried was almost as many. Vehicles are high value cargo so
even if the cargo tonnage is small compared to the other shipping segments, the value of
this cargo is high. Of the total traffic, 74% passed the Gulf of Aden, leading to a risk exposure
indication of $46Bn. The share of transport carried by Red Ensign-flagged ships was $5Bn.
Vehicle roro carriers also transport a lot of project cargoes, which include construction
equipment, parts and modules for power plants and wind mill farms. The value of this trade
is significant but has been excluded from this assessment.
Table 4: European trade in vehicles, 2009
East Asia
East Mid
East SE Africa South Asia
South
Pacific Total
Trips to
Europe by
Red Ensign
ships
Trade: European imports & exports
Million $ $46,193 $8,982 $681 $1,564 $5,045 $62,464Thousand tonnes 2,902 725 114 150 386 4,276
of which transported by Red Ensign
flagged vessels $3,242 $337 $37 $152 $1,429 $5,197 15
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Dry bulk cargo
Europes trade with dry bulk cargo is a $20Bn and 80M tonnes business $2.5Bn passed through the high risk area
The majority of the capacity of the fleet of dry bulk carriers is dedicated to transporting iron
ore and coal, which are raw materials that are crucial for the energy and construction
sectors. Much of the smaller bulker fleet, exceptfor those transporting grain, is used for the
transport of other materials relating to construction such as steel, cement, sand and gravel.
Much of the European dry bulk imports consist of coal and iron ore from Australia and
Indonesia to feed into Europes steel industries. European exports consist to a large extent of
scrap to China, India, Taiwan and grain to the Middle East.
Table 5: European trade in dry bulk cargo, 2009
Dry bulk cargo is to a large extent the opposite of containers and vehicles in that it is of high
weight and relatively low value. That said, the value of the trade still amounted to $20Bn for
the 80M tonnes carried.
Only 13% of the traffic passed through the Suez Canal and thereby also the Gulf of Aden.
This is due to the size of the vessels employed on the routes. Almost all vessels from the
South Pacific go via the Cape of Good Hope while the vessels from or to South Asia and the
Eastern Middle East to a larger extent utilise the Suez Canal as the vessel size on this route is
smaller.
The share of the traffic carried by Red Ensign-flagged ships was $0.9Bn.
East Asia
East Mid
East SE Africa South Asia
South
Pacific Total
Trips toEurope by
Red Ensign
ships
Trade: European imports & exports (excl general cargo)
Million $ $8,844 $1,974 $814 $1,765 $6,421 $19,817
Thousand tonnes 26,299 10,962 1,512 4,254 36,858 79,885
of which transported by Red Ensign
flagged vessels $578 $48 $45 $53 $181 $905 6
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Liquid bulk cargo
$85Bn worth of crude oil, refined oil, chemicals and gas shipped to and from Europe $62Bn passed through the high risk area
o $24Bn crude oilo $20Bn refined oilo $12Bn chemicalso $7Bn liquefied natural and petroleum gases
There were 131M tonnes of liquid bulk cargo transported in 2009 between Europe and the
countries defined in Asia, the Middle East and East Africa. Crude oil dominated, followed by
refined oil products, chemicals and gas. The total value of this trade amounted to $85Bn.
Oil tankers carry crude oil from the original source to the refineries and refined products
from the refineries. The larger ships are mostly the ones carrying crude, but the
development is that it happens more often that 100,000 dwt ships also carry some kind of
refined product.
Trade in crude oil amounted to 80M tonnes and $33Bn. The largest share of the trade was
between the Eastern Middle East and Southern Europe, particularly to Italy.
The Suez Canal route dominated, carrying $24Bn of the total crude oil trade. Three percent
of the traffic was performed by Red Ensign vessels. The UK share of the trade value was
$0.4Bn.
Table 6: European trade in crude oil, 2009
The trade in refined oil products is also dominated by countries in the Eastern Middle East,
but trade with countries in East Asia was almost as large in 2009. It is mostly countries inNorth and West Europe that have a cross-trade in different products with East Asian
countries.
The total value of the refined oil trade in 2009 amounted to $15Bn. Of this, 74% passed
through the Suez Canal and thereby the Gulf of Aden, indicating that $11Bn was at risk. The
Red Ensigns share of the traffic was 6% and the UK share of the trade value was $4Bn.
East Asia
East Mid
East SE Africa South Asia
South
Pacific Total
Trips to
Europe by
Red Ensign
ships
Trade: European imports & exports
Million $ $548 $32,431 $51 $111 $16 $33,157
Thousand tonnes 1,201 78,184 187 335 35 79,941
of which transported by Red Ensign
flagged vessels $30 $975 $0 $0 $4 $1,009 17
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Table 7: European trade in refined oil, 2009
*4 trips by products tankers and 39 trips by chemical/product tankers
The pure chemical tanker fleet transports highly sophisticated chemicals, like acids and
sulphuric products, which require that cargo-tanks are built in non-corrodible materials.
The volume of the chemicals trade was 10M tonnes smaller than the refined oil trade, but
the value was more than twice as much, at $35Bn. The UK share of the trade value was 8%.
Chemicals are transported in relatively small vessels since the batch sizes are generally muchsmaller. As with refined oil, the share of trade via the Suez Canal was 74% and the Red
Ensign group had no part of this trade.
It should be mentioned (see also the section Uncertainties on page 17), that the distinction
between commodities within the trade as well as the overlap between vessel types makes it
challenging to allocate cargo to ships in precise detail.
Table 8: European trade in chemicals, 2009
Gas transport covers Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), which is butane, propane or blends
thereof, and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). LPG ships also carry petrochemical and hydro-
carbon gases such as ethylene, ethane and polypropylene.
LPG and petrochemical gas trade dynamics shifted substantially in 2009, as the US became a
net exporter, and Japanese demand slumped. A new surge in LPG supplies from producers in
the Middle East and even West Africa are contributing to the increase in LPG exports in the
market.
Cold weather increases LNG demand and for instance the UK set a monthly record last
winter. The UKs natural gas storage capacity is low so imports from Norway by pipeline and
Qatar by ship are important.
East Asia
East Mid
East SE Africa South Asia
South
Pacific Total
Trips to
Europe by
Red Ensign
ships
Trade: European imports & exports
Million $ $6,111 $6,649 $151 $2,417 $92 $15,420Thousand tonnes 10,886 11,899 228 3,699 113 26,824
of which transported by Red Ensign
flagged vessels $389 $353 $6 $157 $0 $905 4/39*
East Asia
East Mid
East SE Africa South Asia
South
Pacific Total
Trips to
Europe byRed Ensign
ships
Trade: European imports & exports
Million $ $26,517 $3,149 $661 $3,842 $813 $34,982
Thousand tonnes 9,128 3,315 943 2,567 512 16,465
of which transported by Red Ensign
flagged vessels $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 0
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Table 10: Seasonal reallocation of cruise capacity, 2009
Trade with South East Africa
The East African countries namely Kenya, Tanzania and the landlocked countries to the west
of their borders, such as Uganda, also to a lesser extent Sudan and Ethiopia have substantial
trade with UK and other EU countries. Diverse commodities generate vital export income
while imports of other commodities such as refined petroleum are essential. Statistics for
these trades are not easily available or analysed. Table 11 illustrates some export volumes
but the importance of trade to this region currently at risk to piracy should not be under-
estimated.
Europes trade volumes with the countries in South East Africa dropped significantly in 2006-
07. It was Europes export of grain and sugar in 2007 that were the most marked changes,
down by 1.3 million tonnes. The United Kingdoms grain exports fell by 39,000 tonnes. The
drop in volumes were recovered in 2008 and continued to grow in 2009.
Table 11: European exports to SE Africa, tonnes
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Cruiselowb
erthcap,
byregionandweek,
2009
Mediterranean Baltic Asia/Australia Carib/EC. N. America Atlantic Arctic Sea Pacific/Alaska Other/Idle
Commodity 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Grain 546,788 1,146,905 306,902 1,827,954 1,908,705
Sugar 155,261 521,050 34,333 30,508 31,759
Vegetables, Fruits and Eggs - req Refrigeration 12,360 82,881 13,640 15,816 16,632
Petroleum Refineries 213,858 286,042 235,662 372,274 374,984
Motor Vehicles 98,080 125,165 92,441 64,017 60,438
Transport Equipment, nec. 38,620 42,993 16,200 15,969 17,137
Ores and Scrap 43 26,815 60 322 343
Vegetables and Fruits - non-Refrigerated 79,978 78,086 54,209 27,614 28,124
Wood Products 30,763 39,961 18,819 36,892 31,585
Fertilizers and Pesticides 267,970 396,910 379,088 545,193 569,390
Paper and Paperboard and Products 138,869 121,392 106,538 113,038 109,491
Oil Seeds 14,553 17,979 3,562 11,923 12,993
Other commodities 1,521,527 1,472,377 1,661,955 1,878,809 1,920,657
Grand Total 3,118,670 4,358,556 2,923,409 4,940,329 5,082,238
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Cargo at risk
Cargo worth $952Bn passed through the high risk area in 2009 Containerised cargo dominated followed by liquid bulk cargoes and vehicles Ships destined for Europe made 3,300 trips through the Gulf of Aden
All shipments via the Suez Canal have to pass the Gulf of Aden and are thus exposed to the
risk of piracy in this region. Shipments to and from countries in the East Middle East and the
western parts of South Asia cannot avoid the Somali pirates. Shipments to and from
countries in the eastern part of South Asia and East Asia will have to make a significant
detour in order to be out of reach of the pirates in the Gulf of Aden if they choose the route
round the Cape of Good Hope.
$952Bn of the total seaborne trade passed through the high risk area in 2009. Cargo in
containers represented $841Bn hereof, cars and truck $46Bn, liquid bulk cargo $62Bn and
dry bulk cargo $3Bn.
This gives an average daily risk exposure of $2.6Bn.
Table 12: Value of total trade and trade via the Suez Canal, 2009
The design of vehicle ro-ro carriers makes them more difficult for pirates to hijack, on
account of their relatively high speed and high freeboard. Container vessels are also less
exposed to the risk, on account of their high speed. It is much more difficult to board a ship
doing 24-25kt. Pirates have so far focused their attacks on liquid and dry bulk carriers,general cargo and ro-ro ships. There are, however, recent reports that the pirates have
scaled up their operations and employed larger vessels for their attacks, which may in the
future facilitate boarding of container and vehicle carriers.
$Bn, 2009 Total Via Suez
Containerised general cargo $992 $841
Cars and trucks $62 $46
Dry bulk cargo $20 $3
Liquid bulk cargo $85 $62
Total $1,159 $952
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Diversion costsDiversion is in reality only an option for trade with countries in the eastern part of South
Asia, East Asia, the South Pacific and in the South East part of Africa. Trade with countries
located in the East Middle East and in the western part of South Asia cannot avoid theSomali piracy.
Figure 4: Diversion; primarily only an option for Eastern South Asia & East Asia
Choosing to switch route to avoid the risks in the Gulf of Aden is, in most cases, a costly
choice. Such a decision has an impact on many factors and some of the key ones are listed
below. The list is not complete, but it highlights some of the obvious and important issues.
The impact of changing route from the Suez Canal to round the Cape of Good Hope involves:
Longer distance and therefore longer transport lead time Charter cost increases as a consequence of longer transport time Bunker fuel cost increases as a consequence of longer distance Manning cost increases due to longer transport lead time Lower insurance costs due to avoidance of the risk area No Suez Canal toll The impact of longer transport lead times on cargo owners/shippers.
Each of these has a significant impact on overall costs. It should, however, be recognised
that if significant parts of the trade were to switch route then some dynamic factors would
come into play as a consequence of the changed demand for transport. Longer distances
EAST
ASIA
SOUTH
ASIA
EAST
MIDDLE
EAST
EAST
AFRICA
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increase the demand for transport capacity and this will have an impact on freight and
charter rates.
The impact of increasing demand could also be significant if the degree of capacity utilisation
was high, or close to high, before the change. In that case, the cost of diversion may increase
more than is indicated below. A falling number of passages through the Suez Canal may also
result in decreasing Canal tolls. The net effect of the two is believed to be that costs will
increase.
Generally, the lowest costs for diversion are for ships trading with the South Pacific and
Eastern Africa, mainly because the detour is much shorter than for the other regions.
Costs included in the calculations below are:
Extra charter cost Extra fuel cost Savings in risk insurance for the Gulf of Aden Savings in Suez Canal toll.
Bunker fuel costs in 2009 were much lower than they are today, which has an impact on fuel
costs. Average speed for vessels was lower in 2009 than it normally is. This has an impact on
fuel consumption and thereby fuel costs, and also on the extra number of days at sea.
Based on the above, indications of costs have been calculated for rounding the Cape of Good
Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal. The calculations are for average-sizedvessels currently trading on that route. The variation from these figures could therefore be
substantial, both up and down, should another size vessel be chosen.
Container carriers call at several ports for both loading and discharging and this partially
explains why there is trade on a costlier route. The vessels are constrained in their choice of
route by the location of their cargo ports. To some extent this is also the case for vehicle
carriers.
The figures below are averages for the trade. Thus it could still be financially favourable to
sail via the Suez Canal for cargo destined for the eastern part of the Mediterranean. On
shorter distances, smaller vessels are usually employed, which also changes the figures.
Almost all container ships passed through the Suez Canal in 2009, which makes sensesince the alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope adds significantly to the
costs for the trip. For the average sized container vessel the additional cost has been
calculated to $185,000-$299,000 per trip.
For vehicle carriers, the additional cost has been calculated to range between$24,000 and $128,000 per trip for the average vessel.
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Crude oil shipments are from the Middle East only and thus cannot avoid the riskarea.
The diversion cost for refined oil shipments is in the range $75,000 to $186,000depending on route. The average sized vessel is large for a refined product carrier,
but this is due to the long haul.
Table 13: Average diversion costs per major vessel type and trip for the average vessel size. Share of total traffic that
passed through the Suez Canal and thus the Gulf of Aden in 2009.
UncertaintiesIn some cases it is difficult to allocate cargo categories to the ship types that carried that
cargo with certainty. The reason for this is that there is not only one transport solution for
each commodity.
Figure 5: Illustration of the relation between trade and mode of transport
There are, for instance, various chemical commodities that can be transported by both LPG
tankers and chemical tankers. There are also a number of refined oil products that are
carried by oil products tankers and by chemical/product tankers.
Vessel type Size Suez
Containerised general cargo 4,200 teu $185,000 - $299,000 85%
Cars and trucks 6,000 ceu $24,000 - $128,000 77%
Dry bulk cargo 85,000 dwt $36,000 - $92,000 16%
Refined oil cargo 75,000 dwt $75,000 - $186,000 61%
Note: Size ref ers to average vessel size on route w here teu=tw enty foot equivalent unit, ceu=car
equivalent unit, dw t=deadweight tonnes. Suez is the share of total traffic passing the Suez Canal.
Cost range
TOTAL EXPORTS
General Cargo Liquid Bulk Cargo Dry Bulk Cargo
Roadonly
Truck/traileronferry/ro
ro
Seaborneunitised(cont.
etc)
Seabornegeneralcargo(non
-unitised)
Railonly
Airbornetransportonly
Seaborneliquidbulk
Pipelineonly
Seabornedrybulk
TOTAL IMPORTS
General Cargo Liquid Bulk Cargo Dry Bulk Cargo
MODEOFTRANSPOR
T
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There are other areas where there is an overlap of transport solutions in the general cargo
segment. Some cars, for instance, are carried in containers. Vehicle ro-ro carriers are quite
heavily involved in the transportation of project cargoes, such as wind turbine modules.
Much cargo that is containerised could also be transported as breakbulk or even bulk cargo.
Examples are refrigerated cargoes such as fruit, or scrap steel.
Different types of products and services have been developed for each segment. The
services offered could be standardised or client-specific (differentiated). There are several
different ways to meet demand for transport. The figure below illustrates the mix of
offerings on dry cargo shipments.
Figure 6: Illustration of seaborne transport solutions within the dry cargo segment
Uncertainties also exist within the trade data. The origin of this data contains no information
about transport mode. The classification of commodities in official reports is sometimes not
as consistent as could be expected.
Short sea/Short haul
Deep sea/Long haul
Bulk vessels
Container
Vehicle ro-ro
ContainerGeneral cargo
Reefers
Ro-ro
Major bulk
Minor bulk
Refrigeratedcargo
New cars &trucks
Awkward &project cargo
Other mediumvalue cargo
Other high valuecargo
CARGOT
YPES
Ferry; cargo