Report from the PDP working group

Craig Bishop, Pat Harr, Thomas Jung (until 2011), Shuhei Maeda, John Methven (since 2011), Mark Rodwell (since 2011), Istvan Szunyogh, Olivier Talagrand, Heini Wernli

WWRP-JSC Meeting April 2012

Main goals during last 5 years

(i)Contribute to preparation and evaluation of international field experiments

(ii)Raise awareness in PDP community of THORPEX research objectives and availability of datasets

(iii)Support development of research projects dedicated to PDP research

(iv)Establish linkage to WGNE on the issue of model uncertainties

(v)Promote THORPEX through organization of summer schools, sessions at international conferences and dedicated workshops

(vi)Identify key topics for future PDP research

PDP-related Workshops and Summer School

Karlsruhe, May 2011: European Regional Meeting

ECMWF, June 2011: Sub-seasonal prediction (with PDP WG evening meeting)

Banff (Canada), July 2011: Summer school

Reading, 18-20 June 2012: PDP WG meeting

Banff summer school

“Advanced Mathematical Methods to Study Atmospheric Dynamical Processes and Predictability”

10-15 July 2011

90 applicants; 34 graduate students and young postdocs have been selected from all continents

Lecturers: Bishop, Durran, Gauthier, Lynch, Methven, Ott, Szunyogh, Talagrand, Wernli

Topics:- history of NWP- basic principles (PDEs, numerics, balance concepts, PV)- data assimilation (4Dvar, EnKF)- predictability and ensemble forecasting- probabilisitic forecasts

Banff summer school July 2011

PDP-related research projects / activities

DIAMET (UK), since autumn 2010- Field experiments in 2011/2012

PANDOWAE (Germany, CH), second phase 2011-2014- Further evaluation of T-PARC field experiment- Use of YOTC and TIGGE data sets- Field experiment „T-NAWDEX-Falcon“ in October 2012

Links to HYMEX (see presentation by V. Ducrocq)

Links to WGNE (to be intensified)

DIAMETDIAbatic influences on MEsoscale structures in extratropical sTorms

Geraint Vaughan, Manchester PI

John Methven, Reading PI

Ian Renfrew, East Anglia PI

Doug Parker, Leeds PI

Plus strong linkage to UK MetOffice!

DIAMET Aims

•To describe the structure, origin and dynamical consequences of diabatically-generated flow anomalies (on the mesoscale – e.g., fronts).

•To make a link between the simulation of mesoscale structure and forecasts of weather (high winds and precipitation).

•To investigate the implications for predictability and the skill of numerical weather prediction

– Especially convection-resolving forecasts (1-2 days)

DIAMET flight summaryDate IOP Event

16 Sept 1 Convective band ahead of tropopause trough

20 Sept 2 Weak frontal waves propagating on long trailing cold front

23 Sept 3 Ascent along warm conveyor belt, over-riding a strong frontal wave

26 Nov 4 Surface fluxes

28 Nov 5a Double cold front in Atlantic

29 Nov 5b Vigorous cold front passage over Exeter and Chilbolton

1 Dec 6 Bent back warm front near Shetland + surface fluxes

5 Dec 7 Convection west of Scotland (non-polar low case)

8 Dec 8 Sting jet case over Scotland

12 Dec 9 Warm front case south of Ireland

IOP5: Radar + 29 hr UKV forecast

Obs: Whitworth Observatory, ManchesterVery tight cold front with 4 tornados confirmed

(Matthew Clark, Met Office)

Pressure

Dew pt

Temperature

Wind speed

Wind direction

Precipitation

DIAMET IOP-8

NOAA polar orbiting satellite

Visible channel

12:35UT 8/12/11

Wind speed (m s-1) to SW of cyclone centre

Dropsondes 11-17 NAE model forecast

Point B Cyclone centre

PANDOWAE: Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European sector

Research group funded by German Research Foundation (DFG) since 2008; lead-PI: Sarah Jones

First phase (2008-2011)8 PhD projects

Now second phase(2011-14)

Research themes:- Rossby waves- Diabatic processes- Ensembles

T-PARC

ET of TY Jangmi: strong intensification of jetstream in TC outflow00 UTC 30 Sept 2008

MTSAT water vapour winds Lidar wind measurementsFalcon track onboard Falcon

T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012Andreas Schäfler, Andreas Dörnbrack, Hans Schlager (DLR)

Maxi Böttcher, Christian Grams, Heini Wernli (ETH)Partners within PANDOWAE research group

Focus on warm conveyor belts (WCBs) over Europe

T-NAWDEX-Falcon

Schäfler et al. 2011 (QJRMS)

- Analysis of Lidar data since 2002 for lucky encounters with WCBs

- Analysis errors of humidity at low levels

- Investigation of impact in forecast ofWCB, cyclone structure and

downstream weather

Joos and Wernli 2012 (QJRMS)

Detailed analysis of microphysical processes modifying PV in WCB

Grams et al. 2011 (QJRMS)The key role of diabatic processes in modifying theupper-tropospheric jet stream: a North Atlantic case-study

Main objectives

T-NAWDEX-Falcon

Lagrangian flights during vertical transport in a WCB with use of in-situ observations (H2O, selected chemical tracers) and dropsondes

Perform a tracer experiment to tag air masses

- release artificial tracer in boundary layer of WCB

- collect tracer in WCB ascent and outflow

Investigate latent heating in WCB in warm / mixed-phase cloud and compare with model simulations

Time period: 1-19 October 2012 (i.e., parallel to HYMEX SOP)