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Report No. 7110-MK

PakistanEducation Sector Strategy ReviewDecember, 1961

Europe, Middle East and North Africa Region

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EOUIVALENTS

US$1-Rs 18.75Rs 1-US$0.05

QSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ADP - Annual Developmernt PlanAEO - Assistant Education OfficerAEPN - Academy of Educational Planning and ManagementAIOU - Allama Iqbal Open UniversityASEEC - Assistant Subdivision Education OfficerATC - Apprentice Training CenterCEM - Country Economic MemorandumDEO - District Education OfficerEEC - Education Extension CenterGCET - Government College for Elementary TeachersGOP - Government of PakistanGPR - Gross Participation RateGVIB - Government Vocational Institute for BoysGVIG - Government Vocational Institute for GirlsIDA - International Development AssociationKMC - Karachi Metropolitan CorporationLAIEC - Literacy and Mass Education CommissionLC - Learning CoordinatorMNA - Member of National AssemblyMOE - Ministry of EducationMOF - Ministry of FinanceMOL - Ministry of LaborMPA - Member of Provincial AssemblyNBCT - National Bureau of Curriculum and TextbooksNGO - Nongovernment organizationNIPA - National Institute of Public AdministrationNVTP - National Vocational Training ProjectNWFP - Northwestern Frontier PlainP&D - Planning and Development DepartmentPC - Planning CommissionPED - Provincial Education DepartmentPM - Prime MinisterPTC - Primary Teachers CertificateRs - RupeeSAR - Staff Appraisal ReportSFYP - Sixth Five Year PlanTTC - Technical Training CenterTTCW - Technical Training Center for WomenUGC - University Grants CommissionVTTE - Vocational Training and Technical Education

GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTANFISCAL YEAR

July 1 - June 30

FOR OFFCIL USm ONLYPAKISTAN

EDUCATION SECTOR STRATEGY REVIEWTable of Contents

EX]CUTIVE SUMKARY

I. ......... 1Focus of This Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Finance and Expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Delivery of Educational Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Linkages Between Training and the Labor Market . . . . . . . 2

Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Report Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

II. PLANING. FINANCE AND EXPENDITURE ISSUES . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Figure 1: Gross Participation Rates of Primary (5-9 year olds)

and Secondary (10-14 year olds) in urban and Rural Areas. 4Figure 2: Participation of Different Age Groups in Education

(85-86) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5The Sixth Plan (1983/84-1987/88) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Achievement of Five-Point Program Objecti-7es . . . . . . . . . . . 6Education Expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Figure 3: Education's Share of Total Government Expenditures (83-88) 9

Subsectoral Allocations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Financing of Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Categories of Expenditure .12Government Investment Strategy During the Seventh Plan Period . . 14

Seventh Plan Enrollment Projections and Costs . . . . . . . 16Primary Schooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Figure 4. Growth in Primary School Participation Rates with andwithout Repeaters and Dropouts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Secondary Schooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Affordability of Seventh Plan Targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Resource MobilizatioL .22

Increased Local Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22User Charges and Private Sector Initiatives . . . . . . . . 23

Planning, Finance and Expenditures: An Agenda for Refcrm . . . . . 25Planning and Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

III. ISSUES IN THE DELIVERY AND ASSESSMENT OF EDUCATION . . . . . . . . 26Primary and Secondary Schonling ..... . ...... . . . . . 26

Teacher Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Quantitative Issues ...... .......... 26Organization of Pre-Service Teacher Training . . . . . 29Organization of In-Service Teacher Training . . . . . 30Teacher Supervision and Performance Assessment . . . . 31

This report was prepared following missions to Pakistan in September 1987 andJanuary 1988. The missions comprised Julian Schweitzer (mission leader),Jacomina de Regt (senior project officer), Bashir Parvez (education adviser,RMP), Charles Benson (consultant, finance specialist), Don Foster (consultant,teacher education specialist), Christopher Dougherty (consultant, labor marketeconomist), and Ruth Schmidt (consultant, anthropologist).

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performnanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed witho3ut World Bank: authorization.

PAKISTANEDUCATION SECTOR STRATEGY RF.VIEW

Table of Contents(Continued.

Curriculum, Textbook Development and Educational Technology . . . 31Textbooks and Instructional Materials . . . . . . . . 32

Physical Facilities . . . i . i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Achievement Testing and Examinations . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Mosque Schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Definitional Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Frimary and Secondary Education: An Agenda for Reform . . . . . . 36Teacher Training and Deployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Curriculum, Textbooks and Instructional Materials . . . . . 36Physical Facilities . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Achievement Testing and Examinations . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Mosque Schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Defini+ion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Higher Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Degree-Level College Education . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Professional College Education . . . . . . . . . . . . 39University Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

Expansion Versus Improved Quality and Efficiency . . . . . . 40Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Examinations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42Physical Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

Management Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43Higher Education: An Agenda for Reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

Structural . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Developmental . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44Managerial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45Financial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Management and Administration of Education . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Federal-Provincial Relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46Provincial Management and Administration of Education . . 47Financial Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Local Involvement in Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Responsibilities and Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . 52Karachi Metropolitan Corporation (KMC) . . . . . . . . 53Management of Educational Institutions . . . . . . . . 54

Agenda for Possible Management Reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56Decentralization of Responsibilities and Decision-

Making and Increased Accountability . . . . . . 56Simplification of Work Rules and Procedures . . . . . 57

IV. LIKING TRAINING TO THE LABOR MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

Achieving Social Equity through Vocational Training 59The Institutional Framework for Providing Training . . . . . . . . 60

PAI:ISTANEDUC4TION SECTOR STR3ATEY REVIEW

lable of gontents(Continued)

Is There a Skills Shortage? . 62Demand for Skilled Workers in Large and Medium-Scale

Enterprises .64Demand for Skilled Workers in Small-Scale Enterprises

.............. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 64Effect of Overseas Migration .66Negligible Unemployment of Skilled Workers .67Social Demand and Labor Absorption .67Training of Engineers and Doctors .67

A Revised Agenda for Training .68Apprenticeship Training .68

Other Types of In-Service Training .70Pre-Service Occupational Training .70

Review of Plans for Expansion .71Further Development of Healthy Institutions .71Consolidation of Marginal Establishments .72

Polytechnic Education .73Strengthening Healthy Polytechnics .74Rationalization .74

Secondary Vocational Education .75The Key Role of General Education .77Training and Employment of Women .78

Prospects for Growth in the Employment of Women .78Sources of Growth .78The Existing Structure of Female Employment .78Professional and Technical Workers .79Clerical and Related Workers .80Sales, Service and Agricultural Workers .80Production and Related Workers .81Unrecorded Female Economic Activity .81

Future Training Prior.ties .81Implications for Women's Training .82

Linking Training To The Labor Market: An Agenda For Reform . . . 84Needs-Based Training .84Vocational Education in the Secondary Schools .85Employment-Related Vocational Training .85Encouragement of Private-Sector Efforts .86Polytechnic Education .86Commerce Education 87Training and Employment Women .87

EKISTANEDUCATION SECTOR STRATEGY REVIEW

Table of Contents(Continued)

List of Atmexes

Annex 1Table 1 Government Development Expenditures on Education During

First-Sixth PlansTable 2 School Enrollments During Sixth Five-Year PlanTable 3 Age Cohorts and Gross Participation Ratios (GPR) for

Selected Age Groups (1985)Table 4 Expenditures on Rural Development Financed Under the Prime

Minister's Program (1986-90) (Rs Billions)Table 5 Education Development Expenditures (Rs Millions) and

Enrollment DataTable 6 Primary, Middle and High Schools in PakistanTable 7 Education Expenditures by Level and as Percentage of Total

Government Expenditures (Rs Millions)Table 8 Development and Recurrent Expenditures on Education 1982/83

- 1987/88 (Rs Millions)

Table 9 Development and Recurrent Expenditures During Sixth Five-Year Plan (Rs Millions)

Table 10 Subsectoral Education Expenditures, 1982-83 to 1987-88 (RsMillions)

Table 11 Education Expenditures as Share of GNP in Sixth and SeventhPlans

Table 12 Teachers Employed and Training Capacity, 1987Table 13 Budget Allocations for Colleges and Universities, 1982-83 to

1985-86Table 14 College and University Enrollment at Intermediate Degree

Levels (1982-86)Table 15 Enrollment in Higher EducationTable 16 Enrollment in Degree-level CollegesTable 17 Enrollment in Professional Colleges (1985-86) and

Distribution of Males and FemalesTable 18 Enrollment in Graduate level College Education

(1985-86)Table 18a Enrollment in College Education by Stage, Subject and

Gender, (1985-86)Table 19 University Enrollment (1985-86)Table 20 Growth in Enrollment in University EducationTable 21 Highlights of Typical University BudgetsTable 22 College and University Education Stage-Wise Pass Percentages

in Public Examinations 1983-1986

PAKISTANEDUCATION SECTOR STRATEGY REVIE~

Table of Contents(Continued)

List of Annexes (Continued)

Annex 2 The Enrollment/Finance Projection ModelTable 1 Primary Enrollment/Finance Projection ModelTable 2 Pakistan Primary Enrollment/Finance Projection Model with no

Repeaters or DropoutsTable 3 Secondary School Enrollment/Finance Projection Model

Annex 3 Arguments for and Against Further Large-ScaleGovernment Intervention in Preemployment Training

Annex 4 Case Study: V' Jordanian and PakistaniApprenticeship Systems

Bibliography

Ezecutive Summary

Pakistan

EDUCATION SECTOR STRATEGY U1VIEW

Pakistan has some of the most acute educational problems in the developingworld, with very high illiteracy, low rates of participation and very limitededucational opportunities for many children, particularly girls in rural areas.In 1985, only 1 in 3 of the 940,000 5-year-old girls living in rural areas wasin school; fewer than 1 in 6 completed five years of education (the minimumnormally required to achieve basic literacy); and fewer than 1X remained inschool by age 14. The resulting meager pool of educated rural women, from whichteachers are recruited, severely constrains efforts to improve educationalopportunities for rural girls.

Considering the magnitude of the problems facing the sector and theimplications for future economic development of a largely illiterate populace,the Bank is prepared to maintain a substantial investment in education andtraining in the coming years, particularly to support operations that addresssystemic issues in the finance, management and delivery of educational services,and in making education and training more responsive to the needs of the labormarket.

PLANNING. FINANCE AND EXPENDITURE ISSUES

Until recently, education has had a low priority in Pakistan's developmentplans. Even so, education expenditures, particularly on primary education, havefallen far short of Plan targets and have favored higher education at the expenseof primary and secondary education, particularly in rural areas.

The education component of the Five-Point Program (1986-1990) is providinga large boost for investments in rural education, with a particular focus onrural girls. Although there are insufficient data yet to evaluate its success,it is clear that by providing firm political and financial/policy support, theFive-Point Program has had some affect in reasserting Government policypriorities in rural and female education. However, despite a doubling ofdevelopment expenditures between FY85 and 86, spending on primary educationreached only about half of Sixth Plan target.

The mission considered the affordability of Seventh Plan education targetsand the extent to which education expenditures can continue to be met fromgovernment budgets; the extent to which other sources of finance can be tappedfor the education sector; and the degree to which improving the system offinancial management would improve the flow of resources to the education sector.The following agenda for reform is proposed:

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Planning and Finance

Seventh Plan projections for both primary and secondary enrollment growthappear overoptimistic in view of past performance, implementation capacity, theavailability of teachers in rural areas and financial constraints. Reorientsome investment expenditures toward quality improvements to retain more childrenin school.

Theoretically the provincial governments are responsible for financingeducation; in practice, the federal government has assumed much of this burden,along with some local financial management. Give a very high priority toresolving the issue of how education should be financed and to analyzing thereasons for continuing fai'lure to meet targets. Develop systems that allowaccurate monitoring and evaluation of physical and financial targets, regionallyand nationally.

In view of the heavy claims on the Government budget, look for ways, beyondraising federal and provincial taxes, to raise additional revenues to pay foreducation. Prior to nationalization of thp schools in 1972, local governmentsplayed a major role in finance and administ ation of primary and middle schools.Examine ways to restore this role. Increase user fees in higher education enoughto increase cost recovery from 9% to 30-35%. Encourage the growth of privateeducarion by allowing banks (which are not now permitted to do so) to issue loansto private schools.

Reaffirm federal-provincial financing mechanisms to ensure continuity andconfidence between the federal and provincial authorities in the availabilityof resources.

Accord highest priority to primary education, particularly of rural girls,and invest more in secondary education for girls, so that facilities areavailable to handle the increased number of students graduating from primaryschools. Give far more priority to recruitment, training, and deployment ofteachers, particularly female teachers in rural areas.

Expenditures

Find ways to spend more on books and materials, even at the cos,. ofdelaying new construction somewhat. In Pakistan, virtually no government fundsare spent on books, instructional materials and teaching aids at the primarylevel. International research shows that investments in books and teachingmaterials provide the highest payoff in terms of improving student achievement.It is particularly important to improve the quality of education in rural areas,where dropout rates are highest. Measures to keep potential dropouts in schoolare at least as important as measures to add new children to the system.

Closely monitor growth in recurrent expenditures against growth inenrollments, to be sure money is going where it is most needed.

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DELIVERY AND ASSESSMENT OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION

On the whole, public education in Pakistan is provided by too few andpoorly trained teachers, who are inadequaLely equipped to teach in what areoften very poor facilities. Reform is suggested in the following broad areas:

Teacher Training and Deplo Ment

To improve the quality of basic education in grades 1-8, provide a well-defined and rewarded career structure for primary and middle school teachersand administrators.

The shortage of female teachers is probably the single most criticalimpediment to the development of primary education in Pakistan. To increasethe number of female teachers in rural areas, the Government should

o remove barriers that prevent older women from going into teaching,

o provide rural teachers with acceptable ascommodations,

o explore incentives to encourage women to teach outside the towns,and

o experiment with lowering entry qualifications ior primary schoolteachers, at the same time stepping up efforts to improve pre- andin-service teacher training and supervision.

Evaluate the new system of using "learning coordinators," who in someareas seem to be used more for record-keeping and monitoring teacher attendancethan to provide a reliable system of monitoring, evaluation, and support.

bhysical Facilities. Curriculum. Textbooks. and Achievement Testing.

Implement new primary curricula as quickly as possible and begin a majoreffort to reform the secondary curriculum. Improve linkages between curriculumplanning, teacher training, the provision of textbooks, and the examinationsystems, to ensure that the new curriculum will be put into practice. Reformthe examination system so that it measures knowledge, achievement, and conceptualunderstanding rather than mere rote memorization.

Develop a variety of cost-effective school designs and constructiontechniques. Make sure instructional materials will be used by providing adequatestorage space for them, giving teachers incentives to use the materials, andeliminating such disincentives as making teachers pay for any lost or damageditems.

Following the ongoing evaluation of the mosque school program, determineit's success in meeting objectives, whether a three-year program is enough toteach basic literacy, and whether there is a way to encourage more girls toenter mosque schools.

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DELIVERY OF HIGHER EDUCATION

The overall rate of participation in higher education is about 3.5X inPakistan -- and only 1.7S at the tertiary level (college level and above).Higher education is administered in in..ermediate colleges (grades 11-12), degreecolleges (graCes 11-14), a few colleges with grae3s 13-16, and general andprofessional universities (grades 13-20). Funding is skewed toward theuniversities, which get the same level of resources as the colleges despitehaving one-eighth the enrollment. Suggestions for reform fall into fourcategories: structural, developmental, managerial, and financial.

Structural Reform

Develop firmer provincial policy on how to

o accommodate the rising number of admission-seekers into secondaryschools;

o make intermediate colleges the exclusive vehicle for higher secondaryschooling (grades 11-12), and reserve degree colleges for thetertiary levels (grade 13-16);

o elevate secondary schools to the higher secondary level; eventuallyphasing out intermediate colleges; and

o develop short- and long-range plans to accommodate increasing numbersof students, and to evenly balance the number of students in ruraland urban colleges.

Alter the structure of degree-level undergraduate education by dividingit into terminal (2-year) and post-graduate transfer (3-year) streams, and makingthe 3-year degree a prerequisite for a 2-year graduate (MA/MSc) education.

Explore the feasibility of establishing a Council of Higher Academic Awardsto replace the system of universities administering college examinations andawarding college degrees. Universities spend a disproportionate amount of energyon overseeing these activities (partially for the income they produce) and notenough time on teaching, research, and extension programs.

DeveloRmental Reform

Optimize the use of scarce resources by consolidating faicilities inintermediate colleges and universities and rationalizing programs in degreecolleges. At present, intermediate colleges are underused, degree collegesovercrowded an, rundown, and the universities grossly underused and uneconomicalin the amount of space and resources avaLlable per student. (Persian, forexample, is offered in 5 universities, with 16 faculty members teaching only 111students.)

Systematically develop non-university graduate-level education, givingprofessional colleges a higher priority. Professional colleges enroll three

times as many undergraduate students as the professional universities do, atmuch lower cost, and are better at responding to the needs of the labor market.

Develop procedures and plans for university education that encourage morerational use of facilities and distribution of enrollments; restore anappropriate balance between research, extension, and postgraduate work;concentrate resources on priority disciplines; rationalize staffing; andencourage female participation.

Improve the practice of teaching, improve libraries and encourage thoiruse, continuously analyze public examination results to identify areas ofweakness (e.g., English), and introduce remedial programs in those areas.

Managerial Reform

Selectively decentralize the management of higher education byexperimentally placing 25-30 reputed colleges under autonomous boards ofgovernors, eliminating redundant management levels such as regional/div 'Conaldirectorates of college education, and allowing colleges greater freedom in therecruitment of teachers.

Financial Reform

Explore avenues to lower public unit costs for higher education byincreasing student fees to finance 35% of public expenditures, authorizingcolleges with a higher demand for places to charge higher fees, and developingcost-sharing mechanisms between the public and private sectors.

Provide capital and recurrent financing to upgrade and repair facilitiesand operations at degree colleges.

IMPROVING THE MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION OF EDUCATION

It is important to redefine and agree upon lines of communication anddecision-making between the many agencies involved in the planning, financing,and delivery of education. This means striking a balance between federalfinancing and target-setting and decentralization of management, with theprovinces controlling operations and adapting broad policies to localcircumstances. Ideally, the system should both encourage provincial diversityand safeguard national policy, allowing for a federal lead when required -- forexample, developing a new primary schocl curriculum that some provinces may testwhile other provinces develop their own model with federal approval. Suggestedreform includes the following:

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Decentralized Responsibilities and Decision-Making and Increased Accountability

Establish separate directorates (e.g., for primary education; curriculumdevelopment and teacher training; mosque schools) to ease workloads andcapitalize on the centralizing characteristics of the administrative hierarchy.

Provide District Education Officers with more administrative staff andgive them enough power to do an effective job. At the same time, provide arealistic number of personnel to supervise lower-level administrators andteachers, who are so poorly trained that supervision is important. DEOs, thelinchpins of the system, are so overburdened with administrative work that theyneglect their responsibilities of visiting and stuervising local (particularlyprimary and middle) schools.

Assess the possibility of a phased program of provincial grants anddelegation of responcibility to allow larger municipalities and richer districtcouncils to play a supervisory/managerial and possibly a financial role inprimary education.

Stteamline approval procedures. Incorrectly carried-out procedures anddelayed approvals are often a grgater barrier to performance than shortages offunds. The rigid system of prior approvals for even small expenditures is basedon the assumption that lower-level government officials will inevitably misuseresources and make mistakes if they are allowed freedom and responsibility.

Long-term reform goals should be decentralization of decision-making powersand a shift to a system of accountability in which performance is assessedretrospectively against criteria agreed upon in advance and in which actualrather than paper achievements are rewarded. Provide incentives for superioror improved performance -- e.g., incrementa'L raises for increasing pass ratesor reducing teacher absenteeism or the number of student dropouts.

Increased Specialization. Professionalism, and ManRower DeveloRment

Rationalize the functional subsectrcs, separating to the extent possiblethose that should be separate (e.g., primary and secondary education, which arenow merged) and combining those that need greater integration (e.g., curriculumdevelopment and pre- and in-service training). Increase lateral communicationand cooperation so that people with common interests and problems are in directtouch with each other without always having to go through the secretariat.

Develop career/promotioual patterns that allow specialists to advancewithin their field of specialty. As things stand, people must move out ofprimary or secondary education to be promoted above a certain level, and topposts tend to be filled on the basis of seniority and formal qualificationsrather than aptitude and relevant experience.

Provide much more in-service, pre-service, and postgraduate training ineducational planning and management and link such training to appointments andpromotions.

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Sia2lified Work Rules and Procedures

Analyze issues and problems related to excess control and regulation fromthe top, and provide senior administrators and educators with awareness-buildingseoinars about the wastefulness of complex approval systems and the consequenttendency for people to bypass rules. Enlist high-level support for change andthen involve senior management in devising alternative procedures. Move towardsimpler procedures and more delegation of decision-making, particularly inconnection with finance, purchasing, and personnel management.

Cla-ify roles -- of federal and provincial goverr Its and agencies,between the secretariat and provincial directorates of educ. Lion, and so forth.Accept the primary "technical" role of the Ministry of Education and; strengthenrelationships between personnel in planning, finance and education at theministerial and provincial levels.

LINKING TRAINING TO THE IABOR MARKET

The Bank continues to support the development of appropriate vocationaleducation and training in Pakistan. However, existing labor market signalssuggest that great caution is needed in planning new investments. The basicconclusions of this paper are as follows:

o All available indicators suggest that present labor market conditionsdo not warrant major expansion of capacity of formal public sectorvocational training or technical education.

o Seventh Plan investments should focus more on consolidating andimproving the quality of existing facilities than on creating newcapacity.

o If new capacity is planned, the onus is on the planners todemonstrate future demand for its graduates. Planning should beneeds-based -- driven by demand, not supply. No new investment ininstitutional training should be made unless a clear need isestablished through intensive studies of the labor market.

o Vocationalizing secondary education to provide better jobopportunities for secondary school graduates is not only unaffordablebut is likely to fail in Pakistan as it has failed elsewhere. Themost appropriate form of vocational training is to provide theincreased basic education (literacy and numeracy) that will makemembers of the labor force more trainable.

A suggested agenda for reform includes the following:

Vocational education in the secondary schools should be used to providestudents with a knowledge of tools and machines and some guidance into the worldof work. To the extent that secondary vocational education is intended as

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specific job training or as a preferred basis for admission to training centersand polytechnics, it should be discontinued.

Government should act as a catalyst in encouraging enterprise-basedtraining. It should re-orient apprenticeship training to de-emphasizelegislative coercion and encourage voluntary participation of employers (throughpersuasion, education, and technical assistance -- and by designingapprenticeship systems so there is ample liaison with cooperating firms, minimaldisruption of work by day-release and block-release, and enough reduction inapprentices' wages to offset their initial low productivity). Government shouldsupport enterprise-based training by providing solid general education andsupplementary training in the form of short evening courses in governmenttraining centers.

As part of matching training to Lhe needs of the labor marketplace,decentralize the management of training institutions by establishing localmanagement committees with strong employer representation. These committeesshould be empowered to forge useful links with industry; diversify according tomarket signals and local needs; vary the duration and structure of courseofferings (offering short and part-time courses as well as long ones, notrestricting courses to the lockstep of the academic year); phase outobsolete/unproductive programs, strengthen healthy ones and introduce new ones;employ part-time instructors (making it possible to draw on the expertise ofspecialists borrowed from industry); discontinue trainee stipends designed solelyto fill up vacant training seats; carry out a continuous occupation-specificassessment of labor market trends; monitor a full-time placement and liaisonstaff for graduates; and design a fee system for cost recovery.

Establish a database on current types of training available by type ofskill, and do market research on the likely demand for specific courses(particularly accounting and basic management skills, for which a specialinitiative may be necessary).

Encourage private-sector efforts by sponsoring loan schemes and selectivecost-sharing mechanisms between the private and public sector.

Because polytechnic education is already overenrolled, review currentprograms and phase out redundant ones; restrict the establishment of newpolytechnics; concentrate on improving the quality of polytechnic offerings;check the tendencies of polytechnic courses being transformed into degree levelengineering courses; improve polytechnics' job placement services and links withindustry.

Discontinue the wasteful practice of setting up specialized commercialinstitutions (simply add specialized courses in existing polytechnics and generalcolleges); shift most commercial training to the private sector; and orientcommercial training toward the job market, not higher degree programs.

Deliberately and systematically help overcome the prevailing discriminationagainst employment of women and help create an environment receptive to new rolemodels for women through mass media and, if necessary, planned incentives.Analyze the labor market to identify new areas of employment that may be

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penetrable by women (e.g., pharmaceuticals, food, textiles, footwear, andprinting).

PAKISTAN

EDUCATION SZCTOR STRATEGY REVIEV

I. n=ODUCTION

1. The objective of this review Is to provide the basis for a dialoguebetween IDA and GOP during the next phase of IDA's support to development of theeducation sector. The paper summarizes the key generic issues constrainingsector performance and provides an analysis of several policy alterna:.ives whichhave been considered by the Government during the preparation of the Seventh FiveYear Plan. It is not intended to be a comprehensive review of the sector or tobe a detailed reference document on education in Pakistan. It supplementsexisting documents and recent IDA sector work and reports. (see Bibliography).

2. The need for a radical shift in priorities toward the social sectorsis now well recognized in Pakistan. The education chapter of the Sixth Five-Year Plan (SFYP) (1983-87), reaffirmed in 1986 in the Five-Point Program and inthe Seventh Plan (1988-1993), notes the crucial role of education in economicdevelopment, in improving opportunities and equity, and in boosting industrialand agricultural productivity. These documents also recognize the consequencesof decades of neglect of the educational system: literacy rates among the lowestin the world, declining participation rates, very low system efficiency and alack of educational opportunities for many, particularly for girls in ruralareas.

3. In recognition of this greater emphasis on the education sector,IDA has provided increased support in recent years.' In view of the magnitudeof the problems facing the sector, and the serious implications for the country'sfuture development of a largely illiterate populace, IDA is prepared to maintaina substantial investment in education and training in the coming years,particularly to support operations that address systemic issues in primary andsecondary education; in the management and delivery of educational services; inimproving the f'.vancing cf education and supporting the growing private sector;and in improvLig che linkages between thu education and training system and thelabor market.

1 The focus of the three recent projects, in FY85, FY86 and FY87 has beenon primary education (to increase access, improve efficiency and quality) andon vocational trainir.g (to support training of skilled and semi-skilledmanpower in rural areas and training of women for wage employment innontraditional areas). The FY85 Second Primary Education Project and the FY87Third Primary Education Project are designed to support institutionaldevelopment, policy changes and innovations in the delivery of primaryeducation in the Puvjab, Sind, NUFP and Baluchistan.

-2

Fous of This Review

4. During a mission in March 1987, three broad areas were identifiedthat critically affect the performance of the sector, and where furtherinvestigation would strengthen the dialogue between GOP and IDA.

These are:

a. Finance and Exoenditure. Historically, education expenditures,particularly on primary education, have fallen far short of Plantargets. Even with the increased emphasis provided by the Five-Point program (para. 13), development expenditures on primaryeducation during the Sixth Plan period reached only about half ofPlan targets. The mission examined three topics identified aspotentially contributing to the expenditure malaise: (i)affordabilit - the extent to which steeply rising educationexpenditures can continue to be met from Government budgets; (ii)resource mobilization - the extent to which alternative sources offinance can be tapped for the education sector; and (iii) financialmanagement - the degree to which improvements in the system offinancial management would accelerate the flow of resources to theeducation sector. In addition, the mission carried out a detailedanalysis of public expenditures on education.

b. Delivery of Educational Services. The Sixth and Seventh Five YearPlans, together with many Government documents, highlight the urgentneed to improve the delivery of education at all levels. The verypoor quality of public education in Pakistan (inappropriatecurricula, qualitative and quantitative deficiencies in teachers,and poor quality books, instructional materials and facilities) isa primary concern of this review. Weak sector management has beenidentified as a major cause of the sector's poor performance. Thisreview highlights education management issues that can be addressedwithin the sector, as well as some issues that require resolutionwithin the broader scope of public administration in Pakistan.

c. Linkages Between Training and the Labor Market. Pakistan's economyis experiencing a phenomenon common to many developing countries:a rapidly expanding labor force, high levels of rural-urbanmigration, and an economy unable to absorb all newcomers to the laborforce despite perceived shortages of some types of skilled manpower.At the same time, the education and training system (includingcolleges and universities) is seen as being unresponsive to labormarket needs. The review suggests a direction for future investmentsin secondary and higher education; vocational training; and women'straining and employment based on an analysis of the connectionbetween education and training and the Pakistani labor market.

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Methodology

5. The main mission for this review took place in September 1987, witha follow-up mission in January 1988 to review and discuss a first draft of thispaper. Extensive discussions were held with federal and provincial governmentofficials and other agencies and individuals involved in education and training.In addition the mission met with representatives of many private and publicsector employers and visited representative public and private schools andeducational institutions, both rural and urban. The mission was made easier byeveryone's frankness and willingness to provide information and to review anddiscuss the first draft report.

ReRort Structure

6. This report summarizes the major findings of the reviei. mission.These findings are supported by detailed working papers on: primary and middleschool education, higher education, adult educa ion and literacy, training,parental attitudes toward female education, and organization and managementissues in education. A number of working papers by local experts were alsocommissioned: a report on the status of lower secondary education, a literaturesurvey of papers on the management of education in Pakistan, and an assessmentof employers' and employees' opinions about the supply and demand for skilledindustrial manpower.

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II. PLANNING. FINANCE AND EXPENDITURE ISSUES

7. Until recently, education has been assigned a low priority innational development plans. Nonetheless, actual expenditures have beenconsistently below Plan targets, especially for primary education (annex 1, table1). Education in rural areas and of girls has been particularly neglected.

S. As a result, Pakistan now has some of the most acute educationalproblem anywhere in the developing world (figure 1 and annex 1, table 2).

l~~~s l

70

530

40-

30

20-

10

tUlan Pr Ilmry Aural r nary Lbrban Seconcdry Aural Secondary

V/l smle Female

Figure 1:Gross Participation Rates of Primary (5-9 year olds) and Secondary(10-14 year olds) in urban and rural areas.

Rural-urban and male-female imbalances are striking. Over 70X of the adultpopulation is illiterate, with female literacy rates in rural areas averagingonly 42 (about 70X of Pakistan's population lives in rural areas). In 1985/86,gross participation rates (GPR) for boys and girls in primary school (grades 1.5, ages 5-9) were about 71X and 381, respectively. These data includeconsiderable numbers of over- and under-age children and repeaters. GPRs rangedbetieen 82X for urban boys and 251 for rural girls. The disparities between boysand girls and between urban and rural areas increase for secondary education.Roughly 50X of urban boys aged 10 to 14 were in school in 1985, compared with31 of rural girls in the same age group.

9. The scale of the problem can also be seen in figure 2 and annex 1,table 3. In 1985/86, only about 1 in 3 of the approximately 940,000 5-year oldgirls living in rural areaswas in school. Fewer than 1in 6 rural girls completed 5years of education (normallyconsidered to be the minimumrequired period of formalschooling to achieve basicliteracy). Only 31 of ruralgirls were still in school bythe age of twelve, and fewer othan 1% remained in school bythe age of 14. The linkagesbetween improved levels of 7 female education, reduction

4C

of infant mortality andreduced fertility are wellknown and future efforts in 20

these areas will be severely 10-hampered unless rapidimprovements are made in the . .education of girls. The CM AM CM ft" nI*

small number of rural girlsin secondary educationfurther constrains plans toimprove rural primaryeducation for girls, because Figure 2:Participation of Different Age Groupsit provides so small a stock in Education, 1985-86.of potential female primaryschool teachers in ruralareas (Chapter Three). The situation of rural boys, although better, alsoreflects the historically low priority attached to education in Pakistan. Fewerthan half of all rural boys complete primary school and only 7% are still inschool at the age of 14.

10. The Government is now faced with a major catching-up exercise toprovide access to education for many disadvantaged groups. At the same time,a continuous rapid expansion of the system -- particularly, but not exclusively,at primary and secondary levels -- is necessary to cater to the rapid growth in

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the school-aged population. Improvements in quality are also urgently neededto encourage more children to stay in school (para. 32). In this chapter wediscuss the financial implications of this expansion and improvement *Indervarious scenarios, opportunities to mobilize private resources for education,and measures to iaprove efficiency of resource use.

The Sixth Plan (1983/84-1987Z88)

U1. Recognizing the shortfalls in previous plans, the Sixth Plan proposeda sharp shift in subsectoral priorities in favor of primary and secondaryeducation and literacy and away from the provision of higher education. The Planemphasized in particular the need: (a) to provide increased educationalopportunities to girls and rural populations and (b) to increase adult liter.Acy.The Plan set highly ambitious targets for the education sector. By the middleof the Plan period (1985), all boys aged 5 were to be in school; all 5-year oldgirls were to be in school by 1987-88. Dramatic increases in enrollments wereprojected. A mass literacy campaign aimed particularly at rural women was tocover 15 million people. At the same time institutional measures were to beintroduced to decentralize education, particularly at the primary level, and tostreamline the management of the system. A major effort would be made to improverelevance and quality at all levels. The Plan called for a 64% increase overFifth Plan outlays.

12. By 1985, it had become clear that the SFYP targets were unachievable.The pace of primary school expansion was far slower than anticipated and noprogress had been made in the implementation of a mass literacy campaign.Financial allocations to the sector were much lower than Plan targets and primaryeducation was particularly neglected.

13. In an attempt to reorient development expenditures toward theoriginal Sixth Plan strategy, the 3-year Priority Investment Program (1985-88)and the Prime Minister's Five-Point Program for Economic and Social Development(1986-1990) (annex 1, table 4) were introduced. The education component of theFive Point program, which the Cabinet approved in March 1986 and which largelysuperseded the Priority Investment Program, provided for a national ruraleducation program with the following elements: (a) opening of 20,316 mosqueschools2 and 28,687 new primary schools; (b) upgrading of 2,728 girls' primaryschools to the middle level and 1,881 boys' middle schools to the secondary levelso that each Union Council would have at least one girls' middle and one boys'secondary school (grades 6-10); (c) additional enrollment of 2.06 millionchildren at the primary level, including 1.3 million girls; (d) a minimum of 2teachers in each primary school and 5 teachers in the largest boys' and girls'primary school in each Union Council; and (e) expansion of school supervisorystaff.

2 These are schools attached to a mosque and under the direction of theImam. The schools cater to classes 1-3. Except in Sind, most cater to boysonly. An analysis of the mosque school program is provided in Chapter III.

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14. A complementary initiative to the Five Point program was the plannedopening of Nai Roshani or "Drop-in" schools, under the management of the Literacyand Mass Education Commission (LAMEC). Students between the ages of 10 and 14who have left school would have the opportunity to attend school during theirspare time, normally late afternoon. About 22,000 existing primary schoolswould be used and 44,000 new literacy teachers hired and trained for this programat a cost of Rs 3.15 billion during the period 1986-1990. It has been estimatedthat about 1.65 million students would receive primary education through theconcentrated 2-year curriculum to be offered in these schools. An allocationof Rs 27.49 billion was to be set aside for the entire rural education programbetween 1986 and 1990 which would be partially funded from revenues from the Iqratax (a specl%l tax on imports).

Achievement of Five Point Program Objectives

15. There is very little data yet available to determine the extent towhich the objectives of the Five-Point Program are being achieved. Indeed, amajor problem facing education planners in Pakistan is the virtual absence ofreliable benchmark data against which to meastre progress. Even basic data,(e.g., on enrollments by grade and age, drop-outs, repeaters) and basic financialinformation are often unavailable or unreliable. A major effort is needed toimtrove the information available to policymakers. School enrollment data (annex1, table 5) are available only in aggregate form up to 1985-86 (i.e., before thestart of the Five-Point Program). In the Punjab, where school enrollment datahave been published up to 1986-87, there is little evidence yet of fasterenrollment growth.3 Between 1982-83 and 1986-87, primary enrollments grew by anaverage 5.7% a year while female primary enrollments grew by only 4% a year.Middle school (grades 6-8) enrollments during the same period grew by an average7.1 % a year and female enrollments rose 9% a year.4 In contrast, annualnational enrollment growth rates in primary and middle school during the last4 years of the Fifth Plan period (1978-79 to 1982-83) were 4.8% and 5.5%,respectively. In NWFP, 585 boys' and 317 girls' primary schools were opened in1982-83. In 1986-87, 722 boys' schools were opened, but only 180 new girls'schools. In Sind, according to data provided to the mission, primary schoolenrollment rates for girls in both urban and rural districts remained unchangedat 59% and 9% respectively, between 1981 and 1985.

16. Aggregate data on new school openings provided to the mission (annex1, table 6) also present a somewhat confusing picture. More mosque schoolsappear to have been opened in 1985-86 than in the 2 succeeding years together.The pace of opening boys' primary schools appears to have quickened since 1985-86, but the actual number of girls' schools seems to have declined! This may

3 Grade 1 Primary Enrollments in the Punjab are stated to have increasedrapidly in 1988/89 as a result of a large scale international campaign.

4 Institutional and construction capacity to expand primary education inthe Punjab will be strengthened under the Third Primary Education Project.

be because a number of girls' primary schools (grades 1-5) have been upgradedto middle schools (grades 1-8) and are now counted as such (the number of newgirls' middle schools opening in 1987-88 is expected to double the number openingthe preceding year).

17. Progress of the Nai Roshani program is also uncertain. About 60%of target schools are said to have been established in the different provinceswith a total enrollment by mid-1987 of 314,000 students, 75,000 of them female.Some 80X of LAMEC's budget is made up of salaries, reflecting the acknowledgedprogram objective of creating jobs. No assessment is available as to successin imparting literacy to the targeted 1.65 million adolescents in 4 years. Theprogram would appear to be overambitious, given the constraints inherent inprograms of nonformal education and the major task (as yet unstarted) of adaptingprimary school curricula and textbooks to the needs of young adults.

Education Expenditures

18. Although the share of education expenditures in CNP has been rising,from 1.6% in FY83 to 2.4% in FY88, it is still low by comparison with alldeveloping countries (4.4%).

19. Historically, expenditures on education have been accorded relativelylow p.iority in Pakistan. As annex 1, table 7 shows, education spending(development and recurrent) as a share of total government spending during theperiod FY78 to FY87 averaged about 7%, compared with 12.7% for all Asiancountries and 14.7% for all developing countries. Primary education's share wasalso comparatively low, averaging 34%, compared with 44% for the countries ofSouth Asia. Higher education's share (21%) compares with 22% for all South Asiancountries, but the nroportionately large expenditures on higher education havenot produced a good quality system. Moreover, uncontrolled expansion of highereducation, together with inefficient use of resources, has resulted in unitexpenditures too low to maintain quality. Given the overall meager publicresources available to educaLion, it is impossible to publicly subsidize highereducation enough to maintain even a semblance of quality without dramaticallyimproving efficiency (para. 110 ff.).

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20. Annex 1, table 8shows the evolution ofdevelopment and recurrentexpenditures on education byprovince between FY83 andFY88 (i.e., between the lastyears of the Fifth and SixthPlan period ,.5 Totaleducation expenditures as ashare of total governmenttexpenditures rose from 6.2X .in FY83 to 9.6X in FY88. Theaverage for the period was8.52, compared with a 7Xaverage for the period FY78-FY87. Recurrent anddevelopment expenditures oneducation rose by 208X and1991 in real terms during the e All O9 OOlmtrl*period FY83 and FY88 (161 and15X a year, respectively), ___

compared with real increases Figure 3: Education's Share of Total Governmentin total government recurrent Expenditures, FY83-88.and development expendituresof 1192 and 1401,respectively. However, total education expenditures as a share of totalgovernment expenditures are still well below the mean for developing countries(172) (figure 3). Development and recurrent education expenditures averagedabout 7.41 and 91 of government development and recurrent expenditures,respectively, during the period FY83 to FY88.

21. The Five-Point program, by providing firm political andfinancial/policy support to the education sector (and particularly to primaryand secondary education and rural populations), has had some effect inreaffirming the priorities of the Sixth Plan. The rapid rise in developmentexpendituies between FY86 and FY87 reflects the much higher priority accordedto education following the announcement of the Five Point program in late 1985.Unfortunately, these increases have not been sustainable in FY88 as theGovernments' fiscal position has deteriorated. In fact, the FY88 expenditureestimates are almost certainly optimistic, given the likely effect of midyearbudget revisions, and there will probably be little real increase over FY87outlays.

s There is some variation in data, depending on source, particularly forthe years 1986-87 and 1987-88. Annex 1, table 7 is based on data in theEconomic Survey of Pakistan, 1987. Annex 1, table 8 is based on provincialand federal data provided to the mission.

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22. Subsectoral Allocations. Annex 1, tables 9 and 10 detail subsectoralallocations to education during the period of the Sixth Five Year Plan.6 Totaldevelopment expenditures are unlikely to reach 70X of Plan allocations.Development spending on primary education, despite the emphasis of the Five Pointprogram, demonstrated in the doubling of expenditures between FY86 and FY87,will only reach about half of Plan target. It is significant that the shortfallin primary education is much more severe than for other subsectors. Teachertraining also suffered disproportionate shortfalls, reaching only 60X of Plantarget development expenditures. The lack of teacher training facilities hasserious implications for future expansion plans (para. 69). Interestingly,development spending on universities is also well below target, reflecting theGovernment's current determination to place more emphasis on basic education.

23. Why has development spending on primary education again fallen sofar below target, despite the Government's expressed determination to place toppriority on this subsector? There are a number of reasons: (a) all fourprovinces have been in deficit since FY83 and during the early years of the SixthPlan were reluctant to assume recurrent expenditure obligations resulting froman expansion of primary education. This .najor stumbling block was at leasttemporarily removed by a 1983 GOP decision to finance all incremental recurrentexpenditures on primary education above the FY83 level (para. 25); (b) in theabsence of increased Government revenues, the affordability of large-scaleexpansion of education remains in question (para. 50), and (c) critical planning,implementation and management problems have impeded the rapid expansion ofprimary education. These include:

o unrealistic construction targets and poor construction capability,o the low priority sometimes accorded primary education by local

politicians and managers,o the lack of community and parental involvement and,o the unavailability of female teachers (perhaps most critical).

These issues are discussed further in Chapter III.

Financing of Education

24. With minor variations and exceptions, public sector education andtraining in Pakistan is provided free or at nominal charge. In the Punjab, afee of Rs 1 per month (US$0.06) is charged for primary education, but theprincipal burden of financing primary and secondary education falls on theGovernment. Tuition fees at the college level range between Rs 20 and Rs 25per month, and at university between Rs 25 and Rs 32 per month, and provide lessthan 9X of annual expenditures. A forceful case can be made for reducing thelevel of public subsidy for higher education (para. 56), but clearly the burdenof financing the expansion and improvement of primary and secondary educationwill rest heavily on the Government for the foreseeable future. The burden can

6 Sea previous footnote about variations in data.

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be eased by further encouraging the rapidly growing private sector, but theprivate sector is unlikely to provide more than about 10% of student placesduring the next decade (para. 58).

25. In theory, the financing of all education, with the exception ofuniversities, is the responsibility of the provincial governments. Universitiesare financed directly by the federal government through the University GrantsCommission (UGC). In practice, as very limited provincial revenue receipts andever growing recurrent expenditure obligations have left all of the provinceswith large and growing budget deficits since 1982, the federal authorities havebeen obliged to finance an ever growing proportion of education. Developmentoutlays in education, as in most sectors, come in the form of cash developmentloans carr"-na interest obligations on the order of 14%. The provinces'reluctance. w ssume recurrent expenditure obligations for which they had norevenue ra"r"s was undoubtedly a major stumbling block to the expansion ofprimary and tv rndary education during the last decade. This problem was solvedat least temporarily in 1983, since when the federal government has metincremental recurrent expenditures on education in the provinces with cashgrants, with an apparent upper limit on annual growth of 20%. Sometimes thisupper limit is exceeded slightly. The total education budget estimates for theprovinces for 1987-88 exceed the 20% annual growth cap by about 11% for the 5-year period since 1982-83.

26. In practice, in recent years GOP has been obliged to finance allprovincial budget deficits with grants, so it is worth asking whether educationdoes in fact receive special treatment. If it does, it appears to be (a) in thesize of allowed increments (the annual growth rate of provincial educationrecurrent expenditures is between 4% and 10% higher than annual growth in totalfederal and provincial recurrent outlays since 1982-83) and (b) that theseincremental education expenditures appear to have been subject to less scrutinythan provincial recurrent expenditures in general, provided they are used inrural areas and priority is given to primary education. One result of this hasbeen the continued neglect of schools in urban areas at a time when educationexpenditures have been rising sharply. Large parts of Karachi have virtually noschools and very high urban studlent teacher ratios.

27. However, at the highest levels, GOP's commitment to financeincremental recurrent expenditures on education is not open-ended, isreconsidered each year, and may expire during the Seventh Plan. The report ofthe National Finance Commission may also deal with this issue. Whatever theoutcome, the resulting uncertainty about the financing of educational expansionmay well once again put a severe brake on the progress of the last few years,since the provinces are understandably reluctant to make expenditure commitmentsthat they cannot meet from their existing revenue base. The issue of howeducation should be financed needs urgent resolution. It is discussed later inthis chapter.

28. GOP's rather open-ended commitment to finance provincial educationbudget deficits has not encouraged provincial discipline in the use of funds.There is some evidence that recurrent expenditures have been rising faster thanthe apparent expansion of the system warrants. In the Punjab, for instance,

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recurrent expenditures on primary education rose by 176X in real terms between1983-84 and 1986-87, while primary school enrollments rose by only 16X and thenumber of teachers employed by only 28%. Since staff salaries and allowancesmake up 981 of the recurrent primary education budget (para. 29), it would appearthat a disproportionate part of the increase went to incremental expenditureson salaries and allowances and to hiring of nonteaching staff, rather than tohiring new teachers or qualitative improvements.

Catetories of Expenditure

29. Table 2.1 shows FY87 recurrent expenditures by major classificationin primary and secondary schools and colleges in the Sind and Punjab. Note thatparents are expected to purchase such things as prescribed textbooks, writingpaper, and pencils, for their children. The virtual absence of publicexpenditures at all educational levels on items which contribute to educationalquality -- e.g. books, instructional materials, teaching aids -- is striking.In the Punjab, virtually nothing is spent on these items at the primary level.In Sind, the monthly allocation for books and materials per teacher is Rs 2 atthe primary level and Rs 4 at the secondary level. The same problem exists inthe other provinces.

30. The situation is hardly more encouraging in higher education. Incolleges in the Sind and Punjab, less than 11 of the recurrent budget is spenton books and materials. In universities, the norm is to spend between Rs 22 andRs 363 per student on library books, which translates to at most two new booksper student per year. Research budgets average less than 11 of universityrecurrent expenditures.

31. It may be justifiable to expect parents to contribute to the costs ofbooks, and other materials; particularly in the more prosperous urban areas andat higher levels of education, but the negative effect of this policy on poorparents must be considered. The costs of books and materials for a year'sprimary schooling was quoted by booksellers in Islamabad at Rs 300.7 The totalprivate costs (books, uniforms, transport) of having 4 children simultaneouslyin primary and middle school was estimated by the mission to be as high as 201of the income of a poor family with annual earnings of about Rs 10,000. Thisis a high cost to sustain. In rural primary schools the mission visited, onetextbook was often shared among 3 or even 4 children. In the absence of anyother teaching materials, this is hardly cond-ucive to the rapid acquisition ofliteracy.

7 This figure may be lower in rural areas, where parents would spend lesson supplementary books and materials.

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Table 2.1: Punjab/Sind: Recurrent Expenditures on Primary, Secondary Schoolsand Colleges by Major Classification, 1986-87

(Rs millions)

Category Primary X Secondary X Colleges X

Punjab:

Heads/Administrators 1/ 0.00 0.00 106.44 9.01 35.92 6.39Teachers 1,790.01 78.45 684.58 57.96 313.47 55.75Other staff 97.15 4.26 100.45 8.50 68.49 12.18Allowances 360.44 15.80 164.63 13.94 100.12 17.81

Subtotal Salaries 2,247.60 98.51 1,056.10 89.41 518.00 92.13

Books,Materials 0.00 0.00 1.18 0.10 3.18 0.57Other Expenditures 2/ 32.34 0.08 122.44 10.37 39.86 7.09Maintenance 1.76 0.08 1.50 0.13 1.22 0.22

Subtotal 34.10 1.49 125.12 10.59 44.26 7.87

Total 2,281.70 100.00 1,181.22 100.00 562.26 100.00

1/ Separate primary schools in the Punjab do not have headteachers2/ Includes consumables, utilities, etc.

Sind:

Heads/Administrators 2/ 0.04 0.00 46.06 6.96 201.17 62.37Teachers 756.90 72.61 472.75 71.41 0.00 0.00Other staff 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.21 12.78Allowances 224.40 21.53 133.01 20.09 73.55 22.80

Subtotal Salaries 981.34 94.13 651.82 98.46 315.93 97.95

Books,Materials 0.18 0.02 0.21 0.03 2.92 0.91Other Expenditures 3/ 60.90 5.84 9.94 1.50 3.48 1.08Maintenance 0.07 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.22 0.07

Subtotal 61.14 5.87 10.20 1.54 6.62 2.05

Total 1,042.49 100.00 662.02 100.00 322.55 100.00

1/ Arts colleges only.2/ At college level, most staff are in administrator grades.3/ Includes consumables, utilities, etc.

Source: Provincial Education and Finance Departments.

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32. International research has demonstrated that investments in books andteaching materials have the highest payoff in terms of improving studentachievement. Conversely, the lack of such investments in Pakistan almostcertainly contributes to the high number of dropouts and repeaters, particularlyin primary schools, as parents who are unable or unwilling to contributesufficient funds foi textbooks may perceive that their children are gaininglittle by remaining in school. Efforts to retain children already in schoolshguld receive very high Driority in the Government's bid to increaseRarticiDation in education.

33. Some expenditure items could be reallocated for quality improvements. InPunjab secondary schools in 1986-87, teachers' salaries account for only 77% oftotal salaries. In Sind, only 70% and 86%, respectively, of total establishmentexpenditures went to teachers and head teachers in primary and secondary schoolsin 1987-88. The apparently high expenditures on nonteaching staff need to beexamined closely to determine whether these allocations are cost-effective, andwhether some of these expenditures could not be reallocated to cover the costsof books and materials.

34. In the Punjab secondary school system in 1986-87, for example, aboutRs 122 million was paid to administrative officers and nonteaching staff. Ifeven 10% of this amount could be reallocated to expenditures on books andmaterials, it would provide Rs 12 million, or Rs 7 per student for teachingmaterials. Even this tiny amount represents a tenfold increase over the presentexpenditure per student on these items of Rs 0.7.

Government Investment Strategy During the Seventh Plan Period

35. The Seventh Plan provides for an investment allocation of Rs 22.7billion for education and training (7% of total allocations), an increase in realterms over Sixth Plan expenditures of about 60% (table 2.2). Large increases areprojected for primary education (181%) teacher education (46%). secondaryeducation (62%), technical education (107%) and universities (20%). In contrast,college education (-47%) will be starved of resources. Education spending(investment and recurrent) in the Sixth Plan averaged 2.1% of GNP and would riseto about 3% of GNP by the end of the Seventh Plan (Annex 1, table 11). Whilethis relative increase is to be welcomed, overall public expenditures oneducation in Pakistan remain relatively low by comparison with other developingcountries. Even at the end of the Seventh Plan period, education's 3% share ofGNP would compare unfavorably with the 4.4% average for all developing countries.

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Table 2.2: Silx and Seventh Plan Outlays for the Education Sectors

Seventh Plan Sixth Plan | At 1987 constant prices| Allocations | Expenditures |

_ … I I…I…| Rps Rps 7th 6th A/B

Sub-Sector | (millions) 1 | (millions) X | Plan(A) Plan(B),-I I

Primary 1 10,128 44.71 3,533 27.71 10,128 3,606 2.81Secondary | 6,404 28.21 3,843 30.11 6,404 3,961 1.62Teacher Training 1 287 1.31 182 1.41 287 197 1.46Technical Education| 2,000 8.81 900 7.01 2,000 966 2.07College | 615 2.71 1,233 9.71 615 1,308 0.47Scholarships | 760 3.41 739 5.81 760 792 0.96Literacy & Mass Ed.1 300 1.31 834 6.51 300 858 0.35University | 1,800 7.91 1,383 10.81 1,800 1,505 1.20Other | 386 1.71 125 1.01 386 1,000 0.39

Total | 22,680 100 | 12,772 100 | 22,680 14,191 1.60

Source: Planning Commission and mission estimates

36. The government's strategy for the education sector reflects thedichotomy facing education planners in Pakistan. With relatively meagerresources to be spent on an ever-increasing population, and the need for a majorcatching-up exercise to meet the shortfalls of the Sixth Plan, the Seventh Planagain aims at quantitative targets at the expense of improved quality andefficiency.

37. Top priority in the Seventh Plan is accorded to primary education,which will receive 45% of allocations. By means of a large school constructionprogram aimed at ensuring that no child is further than 1.5 km from the nearestprimary school, the Plan targets a highly optimistic primary participation rateof 80X by 1992-93, an increase of about 30% over the Seventh Plan period.However, the Plan tends to ignore the need to improve the quality of existingschooling in order to (a) attract more children into school; and (b) reduce thehigh (43X) dropout rate (para. 32).

38. Second priority is given to secondary education, which receivesnearly 30X of allocations. Numerical targets for secondary school expansion alsoappear to bc.. overoptimistic, with middle school and high school participationrates increasing by 37X during the Seventh Plan period.

39. With 731 of allocations earmarked for primary and secondaryeducation, other subsectors will be relatively starved of resources during theSeventh Plan period. An ambitious program of expansion for technical andvocational education is proposed, which cannot presently be justified in termsof labor market needs or cost-effectiveness (chapter IV).

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40. Both teacher training (particularly in-service training) and highereducation appear to be under-funded in the Seventh Plan. Teacher training (whichis treated as a separate line item) was patticularly neglected during the SixthPlan, receiving only Rs 182 million or 1.4% of total development expenditures.The planned rapid expansion of the school system will require many new(particularly female) teachers, far more than existing teacher training capacitycan handle. Yet the funds allocated in the Seventh Plan for teacher trainingare only 46X greater in real terms than in the Sixth Plan, and are stillinsufficient to meet requirements. Unless more funding can be mobilized, highereducatio will be starved of resources during the Seventh Plan period. Althoughuniversity investment shows some increase, the 50% real reduction in fundsavailable to college education means that the higher education subsector as awhole will have less resources than in the Sixth Plan.

41. Seventh Plan Enrollment Projections and Costs. Projections for theperiod 1987-88 to 1992-93 provided to the mission show a growth in annual primaryschool enrollment of about 5.4% for boys and 13% for girls, with an aggregategrowth of 8%. Between 1977 and 1985, aggregate primary enrollments grew anaverage 7% a year. The high projected growth in female enrollment would appearto be overoptimistic considered in light of such factors as the availability offemale teachers in rural areas (para. 78). Projections of growth in middle(grades 6-8) and upper secondary schools (grades 9-10) appear to be optimisticcompared with past achievements. Middle school enrollments are projected to growby 8% and 13%, respectively, for boys and girls. Upper secondary enrollmentsare projected to grow by 9% and 11%, respectively. Between 1977 and 1985,aggregate annual enrollment growth rates for these levels of schooling averagedonly 6% and 5%. It is not clear why middle and upper secondary enrollments areexpected to grow proportionately faster than enrollments at primary level; onepossible explanation is the wish to avoid bottlenecks at grades 6 and 9 as morechildren complete primary and middle schooling.

42. What are the likely costs of an expansion of this magnitude, and whatwould the effect on participation rates be, given the approximately 3.1% annualgrowth rate in population?

43. The Government estimates that the development costs of the projectedexpansion of primary and secondary education during the Seventh Plan Period willbe Rs 10.1 billion and Rs 6.4 billion, respectively. This compares withestimated Sixth Plan expenditures of Rs 3.5 billion and Rs 3.8 billion,respectively.

44. To verify government cost estimates and test the effect of differentrates of expansion on both costs and participation rates, an enrollment-financemodel was constructed. The model is described in Annex 2. Data on dropouts,repeaters and under-age children at primary level are derived from recentresearch carried out by the Academy of Educational Planning and Management.

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(AEPH).6 Data on salary, classroom construction and equipment costs come fromprovincial and GOP sources, recent staff appraisal reports and mission estimates.Assumptions about current and projected populations are those used by the FY88Country Economic Memorandum mission. School age population growth rates (between3.31 and 4.21) are high for the period 1985-1993 because the number of women ofchild-bearing age is growing rapidly and infant mortality is declining withouta compensatory decrease in fertility.

45. Primary Schooling. Annex 2, Table 1, summarizes the projections forprimary schooling up to the year 2000. An annual growth in grade 1 enrollmentof 5.41 and 131 is assumed for boys and girls, respectively. Grade 1 enrollmentsfor the base years of 1984-85 and 1985-86 have been adjusted to remove theapproximately 40X of underage (Katchi) children actually in grade 1 classes. Itis assumed that about 10 of primary school children are in private schools.9

46. The projections can be summarized as follows:

a. Given existing dropout and repetition rates (and there is anecdotalevidence which suggests that the AEPM researL may haveunderestimated the number of dropouts and repeatersl), -,r every 100boys entering grade 1, only 57 are still in school by grade 5. Forevery 100 girls in grade 1, only 41 reach grade 5. Some 9% of boysand 10 of girls in primary school have repeated at least 1 grade.

b. Given the low internal efficiency of primary schooling, the projectedannual increases in grade 1 enrollments would yield primary schoolparticipation rates (including private schooling) for boys and girlsof only 68X and 64%, respectively, by 1992-1993. By the year 2000.boys' participation rates would reach 90%, whereas girlsparticipation rates would reach 100% if the 13% annual growth ratecould be attained and maintained. (Note that these data stillinclude overage children in the system, so actual net enrollmentratios would be lower.)

c. The 5.4% and 13% annual rates of expansion of primary enrollmentwould require the construction of nearly 30,000 boys' classrooms and

8 A Study on Drop-Outs in Primary Schools in Pakistan: A SamRle Survey,Islamabad: Academy of Educational Planning and Management, December 1983.

9 See discussion of private schooling in Pakistan: Economic and SocialDevelopment Prospects, Report 5962-PAK, February 1986.

10 In 14 primary schools visited by the mission with at least grades 1-3,Katchi and grade 1 enrollments ranged as high as 78% of total enrollment.Grade 3 enrollment ranged from 18% to zero.

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65,000 girls' classrooms during the Seventh Plan period. This wouldappear to represent a doubling of FY87 construction capacity. Inaddition, demand for trained ma'e and female primary school teacherswould exceed the supply from the teacher training colleges" by54,000, or 46X of total output. The supply crisis for femaleteachers will be particularly serious for two reasons. First,assuming that the 65,000 girls classrooms to be constructed willrequire only one female teacher per classroom (an unrealisticallylow assumption) and that the total output from the teacher traininginstitutions, minus attrition, will be about 44,000 (annex 1, table12), there will be a deficit 4.i about 21,000 female teachers duringthe Seventh Plan. Second, the supply problem will be furtherexacerbated by the acute shortage of rural female matriculates (para.78). The great majority of trained female teachers reside in urbanareas and are reluctant to worl: in rural schools.

d. These estimates strongly suggest that the Seventh Plan targets areunrealistic even with unprecedented construction and a massiveincrease in teacher recruitment and training, unless concertedefforts are made to increase participation by reducing dropout rates.

e. If dropout and repeater rates could suddenly be reduced to zero, thesame rates of expansion would produce 100% primary schoolparticipation (including private schooling) for boys and girls afull six years earlier in 1994/5 (figure 4 and annex 2, table 2).Hence. measures to improve the guality of education and persuadeDarents to keeR their children in school. which would have a Rositiveeffect on Rarticipation rates. are as important as measures to addnew children to the system. These efforts to improve quality needto bo directed particularly at rural areas, where the dropout crisisis most severe. It appears that some rural parents perceive primaryeducation as having a custodial rather than an educational objective.Thus, parents place underage children in grade 1 to protect themwhile the parents work, and withdraw the children from school as soonas they are old enough to fend for themselves.

f. The projected rate of primary school expansion discussed above wouldrequire development and recurrent uutlays of Rs 10.1 billion andRs 25.6 billion in 1987 constant prices over the period 1988-1993.(Projected Seventh Plan development outlays for primary educationare Rs 10.1 billion -- para. 45). Thus, the projected growth ratesin primary enrollments would require a major increase in human,physical and financial resources.

" The annual training capacity for primary and secondary school teachersis summarized in annex 1, table 12.

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05

75-

70/ S

65-

60-

55-

4987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

YEAR0 Orrent +Ntstage + Nob9tage

Figure 4:Growth in Primary School Participation Rates with and withoutRepeaters and Dropouts.

47. Secondary Schooling. Using Seventh Plan projected annual growthrates of 8% and 13X for middle school, and 9X and 11 for high school, for boysand girls respectively, the model shows that, by 1992-93, GPRs for boys and girlswould rise to 551 and 39Z in middle schools, up from 44Z and 21%, respectively,in 1987-88. During the same period, high school GPRs would rise to 29% and 17%,up from 22X and 101 in 1987-88. The projected development costs of this expansionare Rs 11.9 billion. This suggests that the Planning Commission's estimate ofRs 6.9 billion may be on the low side. Recurrent expenditures for the period1988-1993 are projected at Rs 15.5 billion.

48. Whatever the final figure for required development expenditures, theGovernment's plans for secondary education appear to be drasticallyoveroptimistic. Between 1977-78 and 1985-86, secondary education GPRs barelychanged (annex 1, table 5).

49. As with primary education, the shortage of trained secondary schoolteachers will be a severe constraint on expansion. The cumulative deficit oftrained secondary level teachers for the period 1987-88 - 1992-93 will be about37,000. Policy options to deal with this situation are discussed in Chapter III.

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Affordability of Seventh Plan Targets

50. The projected real increases in education expenditures are clearlyjustified in terms of need. The question is, are Seventh Plan targets affordablein terms of available resources and competition for those resources from othersectors?

51. In considering whether projected Seventh Plan education outlays areaffordable, recurrent expenditures must be taken into account. It is assumedthat recurrent educational expenditures will continue to increase at a realannual rate of at least 10 through the Seventh Plan. 12 This is about the rateFY88 increased over FY87, but far less than the 15.7X average annual realincrease between FY83 and FY88. It compares with a projected average annual realincrease in total government recurrent expenditures of 62 for the Seventh Planperiod. It is unlikely that recurrent educational expenditures could grow ata rate of less than 10 for the following reasons:

a. The larger development outlays in the final years of the Sixth Planperiod and the projected outlays in the Seventh Plan will requiresubstantial increases in recurrent expenditures as a necessarycomplemer.t to the opening of schools, the adding of classrooms, andthe hiring of additional teachers.

b. In FY88, there was a substantial rise in civil service pay scales.The starting pay for a trained primary school teacher rose 34X, fromRs 560 per month to Rs 750 per month. This rise will be compoundedby a proportional increase in staff allowances.

C. Grade escalation creep is increasing in the civil service, whichincludes teachers.

52. Total educational expenditures as a percentage of projected GDP havebeen estimated for the expected final year of the Seventh Plan, FY93 (table 2.3).Projected educational expenditures for FY93 as a share of consolidated governmentrevenues (federal and provincial) are compared with their corresponding

12 However, in a recent discussion of the Seventh Plan in Highlights ofthe Draft Seventh Five Year Plan, Islamabad, March 1988, the Government notes:a) that education's 72 share of total allocations is inadequate and will haveto be supplemented by the private sector and innovative financing methods; andb) that real increases in education recurrent expenditures will be limited toonly 82 during most of the Seventh Plan period. This lends urgency to theneed (para. 46) to focus more on improved internal efficiency (which is muchless costly) than on expanded access (which requires additional constructionand proportionally greater number of new teachers).

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magnitudes (at FY87 constant prices) for a base year of FY87. FY93 GDP in FY87rupees is an estimated Rs 824.2 billion, with current public revenue at Rs 185.7billion. 13

Table 2.3: Reguired Expenditures for Education at Endof Seventh Plan (1992-93) Under Seventh Plan Targets.

Exiressed as Shares of proiected GDPand Current Public Revenue

(1986-87 Prices)

-- FY 87-- -- FY 93 --Rs Millions X Rs Millions X

GDP at current factor cost 592,531 824,220Consolidated current revenue 104,824 185,700Recurrent expenditure on education 11,028 19,540Development expenditure on education 3,669 4,540Total expenditure on education 14,697 24,100Education as X of GDP 2.5 2.9Education as X of consolidated current 14.0 13.0revenue

53. According to these estimates, Seventh Plan development and recurrentoutlays for education wo-uld raise the siare of GDP spent on the sector from 2.5%in FY87 to 2.9% in FY93. The higher share is within the conventional GDP rangefor countries of Pakistan's per capita income. Educational outLays as apercentage of consolidated current revenue would fall from 14.0% in FY87 to 13.0%in FY93. For the following reasons however, this apparently conventionalestimate is likely to be unsustainably high, without a major increase inrevenues.

54. In Pakistan, public revenues fall far below public expenditures.The consolidated budget for FY93 is projected to be in deficit by Rs 54 billion.This is 16X of the sum of current and development expenditures for that year.This rate of deficit financing imposes a high cost of public debt service on theconsolidated budget.

55. A large share of consolidated revenues (about 40%) is spent ondefense. While it is normal to expect education to absorb roughly 15% ofconsolidated current revenue by the end of the Seventh Plan, the fact is thatheavy claims, -- far heavier than typical for a developing country -- are placedon the rest of the budget for economically nonproductive activities. Education

13 Source: 1987 CEM mission estimates.

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expenditures in fact use about 40X of revenues available for nondefenseexpenditures and are vulnerable to budget cuts.

56. The means by which GOP can improve and enlarge its revenue base arecurrently the subject of discussion between the GOP and the Bank and will notbe addressed here. Hovever, until these measures take effect, the proposededucation targets of the Seventh Plan can be achieved only at the expense ofother important productive sectors or through an increase in the budget deficit.An analysis of Annual Development Plan (ADP) allocations to the provinces duringthe period FY82-FY88 suggests strongly that this is actually happening. Forinstance, in Baluchistan, one of the two poorer provinces, developmentexpenditures on agriculture foll from Rs 161 million in FY84 to a budget estimateof Rs 136 million in FY88. Between these years, recurrent expenditures onagriculture increased by Rs 77 million, but recurrent expenditures on educationrose by Rs 407 million. In NWFP, the other of the two poorer provinces,comparing development allocations for FY87 with those for FY88, the sum allocatedto agriculture rose by 7%, while that for education rose by 28%. The developmentallocation for education in FY88 exceeds that for the agriculture, water andpower, industries, and minerals sectors combined.14

Resource Mobilization

57. Apart from raising additional revenues through increased federal andprovincial taxation, other measures need to be considered.

58. Increased Local Control. Municipal bodies and local governmentscould be used more effectively to provide and manage primary and secondaryeducation, provided they could be persuaded to accord high priority to education.It appears that municipalities such as the Karachi Municipal Corporation (KMC)are alrcady running school systems quite efficiently, financed largely out ofmunicipal revenues. The municipalities are free to establish model schools andcharge fees to cover costs, but they also run many schools charging minimal orno fees. Enrollments in these schools could be increased through matching grantsfrom the provinces or GOP. Some rules would need to be changed. In Karachi theKKC rents accommodations for schools but is not allowed to spend money tomaintain rented facilities. Yet in many parts of Karachi new construction andoutright purchase of existing facilities are prohibitively expensive. Rentingproperty, and providing funds for maintenance, could be a cost-effective meansof providing education.

59. Prior to the nationalization of schools in 1972, local governments had amajor role in the finance and administration of primary and middle schools. Howthis role could be restored is discussed in Chapter III. But if additionalresources are to be mobilized through local taxation, citizens will expectincreased local oversight and control of schools. Decentralization and localoversight are urgently needed, because a country the size and complexity ofPakistan cannot administer a highly centralized educational system efficiently,

14 Source: Baluchistan and NWFP Finance Departments Budget White Papers,1987-88.

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from either a financial or managerial viewpoint. An attempt in NWFP to re-establish local control/finance in primary and middle schools was stopped in1985-86 because of opposition by newly-elected members of the national andprovincial assemblies (MNAs and HPAs).

60. One policy optior. worth exploring is for provincial governments tomake matching grants to local bodies for educational expansion/improvement in-..munities that are designated as "progressive' by such criteria as whether a

village is electrified. Another possibility is to expand the "focal point"progr^au in the Punjab aimed at reducing urban migration, adding to it biggermatching grants for educational expansion and improvement. Currently thisprograr r-ceives only Rs 50 million in development funds, which is supposed tostimulate -",- simultaneous development of a complementary set of local services:electricity link roads, clean water, paving of streets, drains, middle and highschools for g1-ls and boys, rural health centers, veterinary centers, andtelephones. The freal-point scheme envisages a dispersal of small-scale industryin rural areas.

61. User Charg,.s and Private Sector Initiatives. A recent Bank report15

made a strong case for 'sing fees for higher education. During the Sixth Planperiod, annual budgetary allocations to higher education have been increasingat an average annual rate '> about 20%, with the recurrent budget consumingalmost all of this increase .-innex 1, table 13). Since about 80% of therecurrent costs cover staff salaites and allowances, relatively little is beingspent on equipment, books, mater.' and research. Academic standards in mostcolleges and universities are ackncu ;dged to be extremely low. In view of theresource constraints facing the sector and the competing and compelling demandsof primary and secondary education, it is impossible to sustain the escalatingrecurrent costs of higher education through public outlays alone. At present,higher education is meeting no more than 9% c' its annual expenditures throughstudent fees. Unlike primary and secondary education, h5igher education cannotcontinue to be treated as a social obligation by t.... state. Student tuition feesrange between Rs 20 and Rs 25 per month at the cul'kUe level and Rs 25 and Rs32 at the university level and are not even being raissd in line with inflation.Along with these very low tuition fees, students _-.: receive subsidizedresidential accommodations and services. According to t 1986 Bank estimate,1 6the subsidy of higher education amounts to Rs 2,557 a sL,dent, compared withrecurrent expenditures on primary education of about Rs 3.- student. Whileit may not be feasible or desirable to recover in full the pub_ - sts of highereducation, the case for increasing cost recovery from 9% to. hav. 30X-35% isincontestable. Part of the revenue from increased student tii -hould bediverted to provide financial assistance to needy students, and pat-. -'uld beused to improve quality.

15 Pakistan: Economic and Social Development Prospects, Report No. 5962-PAK, February 1986.

16 Ibid.

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62. The existence before 1972 of a robust private sector at the collegelevel and the recent experien&ce of two private universities charging very highfees indicate the potential for the revival of a major private sector initiativein higher education. Current government policies favor the establishment ofprivate institutions of higher education, but the specter of possiblenationalization later still haunts prospective investors. In addition, thelevels of capital investment needed to establish new institutions are a bigdeterrent. If some cost-sharing mechanism between the public and private sectorscould bc developed to meet capital costs, and if the lending policies of thenationalized banks could be reoriented to support educational investments byprivate parties, the viability of private sector higher educat'on would begreatly enhanced.

63. Although no up-to-date data exist on private schooling, clearlyprivate education, which may comprise 10% of all school enrollments is growing.As in higher education, expansion is impeded by lack of bank credit. Banks arenot allowed to issue loans to finance private education. This ruling should bechanged,

64. Expansion of private education is also Impeded by the long time ittakes to get a new school up to breakeven point, because parents are oftenreluctant to pay fees for a school without a track record. Matching grants fromthe Government could help start up more private schools. At present, subsidiesare granted only to well-established schools. A matching grant system would notbe easy to administer and audit, but the benefits could be substantial, in termsof rapidly expanding urban encollmenLs at a relatively low cost to the publicpurse. A start could be made by encouraging well-established private schoolsto set up sister schools locally or in other cities.

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Planning. Finance and ExDenditures: An Agenda for Reform

Planning and Finance

65. Urgently develop monitoring and evaluation systems that allowphysical and financial targets to be closely and accurately monitored at regionaland national levels.

66. Accord highest priority to primary education, in particular for ruralgirls, analyzing bottlenecks in implementation that cause continuing failure tomeet targets. At the same time, increase investments in secondary education forgirls, carefully matching increased supply to increased output from the primaryschools.

67. Assign a drastically increased priority to the recruitment, trainingand deployment of teachers, with particular emphasis on female teachers in ruralareas.

68. Reaffirm federal-provincial financing mechanisms to ensure continuityand confidence between the federal and provincial authorities in the availabilityof resources.

69. In view of likely resource constraints, examine measures to mobilizeadditional resources, including a greater role for municipalities and localgovernments, higher user charges in higher education and encouragement of theprivate sector at all levels.

Expenditures

70. Examine ways to increase expenditures on improving education quality,including books and materials.

71. Examine why recurrent expenditures appear to be rising faster thanenrollment growth and the increase in teacher numbers, to ensure efficient useof resources.

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III. ISSUES IN THE DELIVERY AND ASSESSMENT OF EDUCATION

72. In this chapter, some of the key problems facing education plannersand managers in Pakistan are discussed from two viewpoints: (a) how to improvethe quality of education; and (b) how to improve management so that educationalservices are delivered more efficiently. The two are, of course, closelyconnected; the quality of education suffers with weak management.

A. Primary and Secondarv Schoollng

73. Issues affecting the development of primary education have been welldescribed in recent Staff Appraisal Reports."' This report builds on, but doesnot repeat, the analysis in the SARs. Issues discussed below include teachertraining, curriculum and textbook development, examinations, mosque schools, andthe structure of the primary and secondary school system.

Teacher Training

74. Perhaps the paramount issue facing education planners in Pakistantoday is how to recruit, train, deploy and improve the quality of teachers inprlmary and secondary education. The problem is one of: (a) guantity, as theexpanding system requires more trained teachers than are being produced by theformal teacher training system; (b) auality, as teacher training has beenseriously neglected; (c) deRloyment, as teachers are reluctant to serve in ruralareas; and (d) supervision, as the management system has become overloaded andincapable of providing adequate sv-ervision of teachers.

75. Ouantitative Issues. Data on student teacher ratios in urban andrural areas reveal wide disparities. In the Punjab, for instance, primary schoolstudent-teacher ratios vary between a high 83:1 (in girls' primary schools inRawalpindi) to a low 16:1 (in girls' schools in isolated rural areas). Theinternational norm is 40:1. Student-teacher ratios average 35:1 and 33:1 forboys and girls, respectively, in rural areas and 53:1 and 70:1 in urban areas.

17 Second Primary Education Project, SAR, No. 5363-PAK, May 1985; ThirdPrimary Education Project, SAR, No. 6492-PAK, May 1987.

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76. Because of past underinvestment in the training of primary andsecondary school teachers18 the output of the formal teacher training system isquite insufficient to meet the demand for new teachers called for by expansionof the educational system. Trained teachers are in short supply and teachersare often used inefficiently in rural areas. Smaller classes are not necessarilythe key ingredient in improving the quality of education, but class sizes of 70or even 50 are clearly much too high.

77. No data exist on the relative proportions of recurrent expenditureson primary education in urban and rural areas, but it would appear that the FivePoint Program's focus on rural areas may have had the effect of slowing down thehiring of teachers in towns to reduce the growth of educational expenditures inurban areas. It may be justifiable to redress a previous bias against ruralareas, but there is clearly an urgent need to hire more primary school teachersto reduce the size of very large urban classes.

78. Moreover, the lower rural ratios certainly do not mean an excess ofrural teachers. First, high rural dropout rates result in an inefficient useof teachers. Second, there is clear evidence of a particularly high turnoverof female teachers in rura'l areas, with considerable accompanying absenteeism.Third, given the small size of many rural communities, class sizes would beexpected to be smaller.

79. The maior crisis in the recruitment, training and deployment ofteachers affects both rural and urban areas.

80. Annex 1, table 12 details the numbers of teachers employed by leveland province and the annual teacher training capacity at each level of education.Annex 2 provides projections of primary and secondary enrollments and estimatesof future teacher requirements. Assuming (probably optimistically) that teachertraining capacity at each level expands 5% a year, and (again, optimistically)that the attrition rate among teachers is only 5% a year, the expansionsprojected in Annex 2 suggest the following cumulative deficits of teachers:

18 Pre-service primary teacher training is normally conducted in one-year courses at Government Colleges for Elementary Teachers (GCETs) and atPrimary Teacher Certificate Units (PTCs) attached to secondary schools. Inaddition, the Allama Iqbal Open University (AIOU) offers a PTC distanceeducation program. The entry qualification for primary school teachertraining is high school matriculation (i.e., a pass in the grade 10 externalexamina-tions). An upper secondary school (grade 12) graduate can earn ateaching certificate for middle school in a parallel one-year course at aCCET. High school teachers are normally university graduates.

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Table 3.1: Cumulative Deficits of Trained Teachers

1987/88-1992/93 1987/88-2000iJ1

Primary 54,000 271,000Secondary 37,000 224,000

81. During the Seventh Plan period, demand will outstrip supply for trainedprimary and secondary teachers by about 46X and 1201 respectively. From nowuntil the end of the century, the situation gets much worse. To combat pastdeficits, the Government has had no alternative but to hire untrained teachers(in the Punjab, about 20X of teachers are untrained). As a short-term solutionto the quantitative (but not qualitative) problem in the towns, even this stepis unlikely to solve the severe teacher shortages in rural areas. Most trainedteachers reside in towns and are reluctant to serve in rural areas because (a)living conditions may be poor, (b) the structure of allowances favors urbanteachers, (c) cultural mores make it difficult for female teachers to serveoutside their own immediate neighborhood. Great efforts are needed to recruitand train teachers from rural areas and deploy them near where chey live.However, with relatively few female matriculates and even fewer female grade 12graduates in rural areas, the potential stock of female teachers is very low.

82. Every effort should be made to encourage female teachers to work inthe villages. Although it may be difficult to provide special salary incentivesbecause of the effect on other government rural employees, alternatives need tobe explored. These include: (a) localized recruitment below tehsil or merkazlevel; (b) an award of salary increments for service in rural areas; (c)equalization of rural and urban allowances (the existing larger allowances intowns appear to be a strong disincentive to working in a village, where thecosts of many goods and services may actually be as high, or higher, than in atown); (d) provision of hostel accommodations, perhaps as a cluster hostel toserve various types of female workers; and (e) provision of special allowancessuch as transport and hardship allowances, for service in arduous and inaccesibleareas.

83. However, even these measures will not solve the supply problem.The total number of girls graduating from class 10 in 1985 was between 49,000and 81,000 depending on the source of data. According to the PlanningCommission, 922 of female matriculates live in urban areas. This means that thetotal annual stock of rural girls available as potential rural primary schoolteachers is at most about 6500. But that same small stock has to supply thehealth service's growing needs for female paramedical worlkers. Given that manyof these girls will not move into the formal labor forc,, the potential stockof rural female teachers is clearly far too low to meet demand.

84. The shortage of female teachers in rural areas is probablv the singlemost critical imoediment to the develoRment of orimary education in Pakistan.Surveys have shown that parents prefer their children (even boys) to be taught

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by women. Indeed there is evidence that the lack of female teachers is a strongdisincentive to parents sending their girls to school. Where female teachersare available, co-educational primary education may be acceptable to thecommunity, even in small towns and semi-rural areas. The economic and socialbenefits of co-education are considerable and should be promoted where socialand cultural conditions permit.

85. Since the beginning of the decade, the Government has beenexperimenting with the appointment of assistant teachers, unqualified teacherswho work under the supervision of a trained teacher. What evidence existssuggests that this experiment has been quite successful. International evidencelends weight to the theory that neither the formal training of teachers nor eventhe formal requirement of ten years of schooling is necessarily a primarydeterminant of school quality. Under force of circumstances, the Baluchistangovernment is seeking to hire female teachers with only middle school education.The Government should experiment with lowering the minimum educationalreauirements for primary school teachers. at the same time steRRing uD effortsto improve in-service training and supervision. In addition, barriers torecruiting older persons into the teaching profession should be removed. Thecurrent proposal under discussion that minimum educational requirements and thelength of pre-service training should be raised to "improve quality" should bestrongly resisted since it would reduce even further the potential stock offemale teachers in rural areas.

86. In Baluchistan and Sind, untrained teachers can later become eligiblefor Primary Teacher Certificate training. Length of service as an untrainedteacher is the criterion used for filling available places in the teachertraining institutions, and these teachers have priority over teacher trainingapplicants with no prior experience. The advantages of this practice are thatteacLers remain on salary during training; have on-the-job experience to relateto the theoretical constructs of the instruction; and are already posted andsettled in a rural community. One disadvantage is that places urgently requiredby new entrants are taken up by these untrained teachers. Another is that ruralschools may end up with unfilled vacancies as the position vacated by the teacherin training is left unfilled.

87. Organization of Pre-Service Teacher Training. Great efforts areneeded both to expand and improve teacher training. Past underinvestment in thiscritical area has left teacher training institutions poorly equipped to deal withthe crisis of teacher shortages. The present organizational structure isunsatisfactory for p'-e-service teacher training. The responsibility forrecruiting, selecting, training and certifying elementary and middle schoolteachers lies with the Department of Public Instruction in the Punjab and thecurriculum wings of the Provincial Education Departments (PEDs) in the otherthree provinces. (The Provincial Curriculum Wings are responsible for thedevelopment of primary and middle school curricula, in collaboration with theNational Bureau of Curriculum and Textbooks, or NBCT). Both structures lack thecoordination and cooperation with other key parts of the education system thatis required to provide teachers with methodology and content appropriate toprimary education. While the Punjab structure has the advantage of combiningtraining and placement under one authority, the methodology employed in the

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training institutions is largely irrelevant to the needs of a primary schoolteacher.

88. In the Punjab, for example, pre-service teacher training for theprimary level is conducted in 1-year courses at 22 Government Colleges forElementary Teachers (GCETs), 7 Normal Schools and, since 1984, at 90 PrimaryTeachers Certificate (PTC) Units attached to secondary schools. Eighty of theseunits are dedicated exclusively to females, to meet the projected requirementsfor new rural girls? primary schools. The total output from all institutionsin 1985 was about 9000. Other sources of primary teachers include privatecandidates who sit for the PTC examination, and candidates of the Allama IqbalOpen University (AIOU) PTC program. Despite these efforts, 20% of male teachers,and 26X of female teachers enter the schools untrained. The curriculum for pre-service training is overloaded. The 39 week instructional year (33 hours perweek) is divided into 10 subjects, including 6 weeks of practice teaching. Sevensubjects cover methods of teaching and the major primary school subjects; theremaining three include principles of education, child development, and schooland classroom organization and management. Almost all GCET staff were trainedas high school teachers and have no experience in primary education. Becauseof their inappropriate qualifications, experience and limited instructionalexpertise, the teacher trainers often rely on lecture methods which are copiedby their trainees and are inappropriate for primary school children. Postingsand transfers in and out of GCETs occur frequently because employment in theseinstitutions is sometimes considered a form of punishment. As a result, theinstitutions are staffed with inappropriately trained and unmotivated primaryteacher trainers.

89. Organization of In-Service Teacher Training. The organizationalstructure is also unsatisfactory for in-service teacher training. Each provincehas an Education Extension Center (EEC) responsible for in-service teachertraining. In addition, the provinces have assigned in-service responsibilitiesto one or more GCETs. Generally, the EECs are supposed to provide training formiddle and secondary school teachers and administrators, while the GCETs providetraining for primary school teachers. The intention is to provide 1 in-servicetraining session to each teacher at least once every 5 years. In practice,targets have not been even remotely met. For example, the target for the PunjabEEC is 10,000 teachers per year for in-service and refresher courses. Theaverage output during the past 5 years has been 200. Many of the in-serviceGCETs have been converted to pre-service institutions. In the Punjab, the EECis under the PED Curriculum Wing, while both in-service and pre-service GCETsare under the Directorate of Schools, thus bifurcating responsibility for pre-and in-service training. In the other three provinces, both GCETs and the EECsreport to the PED Curriculum Wings, which cuts off teacher training from schooladministration. The result in both cases is underutilization of EEC and GCETfacilities.

90. However, the problem lies deeper than the inadequacy of theadministration or the failure to meet targets for in-service courses. The in-service training programs aim to familiarize teachers with modern teachingmethods, but are irrelevant because the teachers feel they are judged by theirstudents' examination scores, and the test items on the external examinations

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require rote learning and memorized responses rather than the interactivelearning and problem-solving associated with modern educational practices. Theorganizational separation of Curriculum Wings from Provincial Examination Boardsfurther divorces the school curriculum from teaching practices and themeasurement of learning.

91. Teacher Supervision and Performance Assessment. Previous reports havenoted the lack of supervision and support available to teachers. Most ruralprimary schools are small and do not have a head teacher to provide day-to-daysupervision. In the Punjab, Assistant Education Officers (AEOs, the most juniorlevel of administrators) have the impossible task of supervising 70 schools andabout 200 teachers. Lack of supervision and support has resulted in large scaleabsenteeism and low morale among teachers. In an effort to improve supervisionand support, the Government has been experimenting with the concept of learningcoordinators (LCs). An LC works at the level of the Union Council (the smallestgovernment administrative unit), supervising and providing on-the-spot support(model teaching, in-service training, etc.) to about 15 schools. Unfortunately,since a preliminary (and very positive) survey of the LC scheme during theimplementation of th. First Primary Education Project (Cr. 892-PAK) in 1982,there has been no systematic evaluation of the LC system. The scheme seems tobe more successful in some provinces than in others.

92. The sparse documentation available suggests that LCs are being usedmore to monitor teacher attendance and for record-keeping than to assess pupilachievement or to introduce qualitative reforms, such as teaching content andmethodology related to child growth and development, classroom management notbased upon harsh physical discipline, and teaching techniques such as multigradeteaching. If this is the case, an opportunity to develop a strox.g school-basedsystem of support to teachers is being wasted.

93. A follow-up evaluation of this educational equivalent of the"training and visit" system is urgently needed to determine the extent to whichLCs are successfully reducing teacher absenteeism, providing on-the-job supportand training, and assisting with student assessment and qualitative improvements.Potentially, the LC system provides the best hope for introducing a reliablesystem of monitoring, evaluation and support at the primary school level.

Curriculum. Textbook DeveloDment and Educational Technology

94. The NBCT, which is the curriculum wing of the federal Ministry ofEducation (MOE) in Islamabad, sets national curriculum policy. Provincialcurriculum wings have the mandate to adjust curriculum content to localconditions. The curriculum at both primary and secondary levels is overcrowded.At the primary level, the curriculum is too demanding for the early stage. Amajor reform to develop a two-stage curriculum with a core program of basicliteracy, numeracy and religious knowledge in grades 1-3, with a more subject-centered curriculum in grades 4-5, is underway with support from the ThirdPrimary Education Project. The middle and high school curricula also needreform. Curriculum reform must be undertaken in much closer cooperation withteacher training, textbook materials and development and production, andexamination boards.

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95. Textbooks and Instructional Materials. Each province has a TextbookBoard, which develops textbooks for each grade and subject under the guidanceof the NBCT. Textbook boards use textbook drafts prepared by the ProvincialCurriculum Wings, or contract with a subject specialist as author. The textbooksare then published by private publishers and distributed by private bookstoresat controlled prices. However, the examination system, with its accent onfactual recall, ancourages students to buy sumary guidebooks and texts producedby private publishers. As a result, students often acquire an expensiveassortment of texts, copybooks and course guides, the expense being borne byparents (para. 31). As most teachers are poorly trained or untrained the textsand de facto guidebooks mandate the course of study. Further, texts and guidesare grade-specific, despite the fact that most instruction for grades 1-5 inrural areas is of necessity multigraded. Additionally, the new primary schoolbooks under development in the Curriculum Wings call for increased teacher/pupilinteraction, problem solving and concept development, in contrast with thecurrent practice of rote memorization. These newly advocated practices will beimpossible to implement in large, multigrade classes taught by untrainedteachers. Nor will they be feasible in single-grade urban classes with as manyas 120 children crammed into a 12' x 17' room, or in shelterless schools19

accommodated in villege yards, on verandas or against existing school walls.Curriculum and textbook development and imDroved teaching practices. therefore,must be accompanied by the orovision of improved Rhysical facilities. (para. 92)

96. Instructional materials (which are essential to the learning process)are scarce in primary and secondary schools and even when they are available arelargely unused. Apart from the shortage of funds (para. 29), there are a varietyof reasons for this, including (a) a tradition of rote learning, (b) anexamination-driven system that demands recall rather than conceptualization ofideas, and (c) a lack of storage facilities in schools (a particular problem forshelterless schools and mosque s"hools). Further more, teachers must pay outof their own salaries for losses and breakages of teacher-used materials. Forexample, science teaching kits, high school laboratories, and school libraries,where they exist, are usually locked and show little evidence of use. Policiesshould be introduced to maximize the use of instructional materials. Simplestorage facilities should be built, for example, and the practice of making theteacher accountable for lost materials should be abolished. Other promising andcost-effective technologies such as radio are little used.

Physical Facilities

97. The terrible physical condition of many school buildings has beenwell described elsewhere and will not be discussed here. Two points only will

19 The term "shelterless school" is used for schools without physicalfacilities, or where the school building is in such a poor state of repairthat it has been abandoned. Shelterless schools are widespread throughout thecountry, and the Government of Pakistan is according a high priority to theconstruction of buildings for these schools.

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be mentioned here. First, efforts are needed to develop a variety of schooldesigns and construction that maximize the efficiency/cost ratio. Second,financial and institutional resources are needed to put in place a schoolmaintenance program to protect the large investments now being made in schoolconstruction.

Achievement Testint and Examinations

98. The examination system in Pakistan is complex and inequitable. Onlythe Punjab conducts an external examination at the end of grade 5, and this isnot required for students in a school that provides continuous education betweengrades 1-8 or 1-10. Eighth grade examinations are taken by some students toaward scholarships for continuous study. A student fortunate enough to be ina school with a ninth and tenth grade does not have to sit this examination.Boards of intermediate and secondary education conduct external examinations atthe end of grades 10 (matriculation) and 12 (intermediate). Passes in theseexaminations enable students to enter intermediate colleges (matriculates) anddegree colleges (intermediate). "Internal" grade examinations are conducted onaan ad hoc basis by headmasters and/or the local assistant education officers.

99. The examination system is allocative in purpose, er.abling successfulcandidates to pass to the next level of education. Failure rates are very high.Only about half of entrants pass the matriculation examination and wastage inthe grade 12 examination is even higher. The examinations test the capacity ofstudents for rote memory and largely exclude conceptual and cognitive tests.The results cannot be used to measure student achievement, nor to compare trendsin achievement over time. De-linked as it is from the curriculum developmentprocess, the examination system is a major hurdle to curriculum reform andquality improvement. A top priority, should be maior reform that would: (a)permit much greater emphasis on internal assessment; measurement of studentachievement and testing of concepts rather tnan memory; and (b) link theexamination system closely with the curriculum development process, which isattempting to move away from rote learning toward the teaching of higher orderthinking skills.

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Kosque Schools

100. The Government is placing heavy emphasis on mosque schools as a meansof rapidly increasing access to primary education in rural areas. The logic isclear: mosques have traditionally provided Koranic instruction to 1both boys andgirls; the Imam is a respected community figure who can encourage parents to sendchildren to school; facilities exist in the mosques so that a school can beopened quickly and at minimal expense. (The cost of opening a mosque school isabout ten times less than the cost of opening a two- classroom rural primaryschool.) The Imam can be paid an honorarium to provide instruction and can beassisted if necessary by an assistant teacher. Some 26,700 mosque schools,providing education up to grade 3, have been opened since 1985. In the Puntjabin 1985-86, some 121 of boys were enrolled in these schools. In Sind in 1984-85, some 110,000 or about 7X of children were in mosque schools or equivalent,of whom about 30X were girls. The curriculum in mosque schools is the same asthat in con\ventional primary schools.

101. The Planning Commission has authorized a national evaluation of themosque school program. The report, due in 1988 and certainly needed, shouldinclude: (a) a comparison of reading achievement after three years of schoolingfor students in mosque schools and public schools; (b) a comparison of retentionrates in grades 4+ in public schools between students who attended grades 1-3in mosque schools and students who attended public schools; and (c) the per-pupil costs for students in mosque and public schools. The mosque school conceptseems to have been most successful in Sind, where a separate and energetic mosqueschool administration has provided a focus for management and development, andwhere the geographic conditions (many small, isolated communities) are mostsuitable for a program of this type. It has perhaps been least successful inthe Punjab, where pelicymakers question the efficacy of a program that providesonly three years of education; where communal and religious differences dividecommunities; and where many villages are so big as to render formal schoolfacilities essential. One feature of the program nationwide (with the exceptionof Sind) is that few girls are enrolled. Also, most children in mosque schoolsreceive no education beyond third grade, and there is serious concern about theability of the schools and curriculum to render a child literate in just threeyears.

Definitional Problems

102. T'he management of education is discussed separately (para. 143 ff.)but one management issue that impinges on quality is the ambiguity in theorganization, management, financing, and monitoring of primary and secondaryschools that is caused by combining these different levels of education.

1^. nIn theory, primary and secondary education in Pakistan arecategorized in the following way:

o grades 1-5, primary level,o grades 6-8, middle school,o grades 9-10, high school,o grades 11-12, higher secondary.

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As education has expanded, the practice has been to provide a middleschool by adding classrooms to a primary school, a high school by addingclassrooms to a middle school, and so on. This process of "upgrading" has ledto considerable ambiguity, and is not simply of labelling -- it affects teacherassignments, financing, management, supervision and facilities. Responsibilityfor higher secondary education is divided between school and collegeadministrations (para. 113). District education officers (DEOs) are responsiblefor high schools while assistant education officers (AEOs,, who are two levelsbelow DEOs in the hierarchy, are responsible for primary schools. A high schoolprincipal expects to relate directly to his DEO, which means supervision issporadic and infrequent, as a DEO typically has between 150 and 250 high schoolsunder his management. AEOs concentrate upon primary schools but supervision inschools comprising grades 1-8 is the responsibility of Deputy District or Sub-Divisional Education Officers (DDEOS/SDEOS). Defined responsibility is similarlylacking in teacher assignments. school maintenance and budgeting. Schoolfinances and facilities are skewed in favor of the upper grades in schools,starving the primary level of resources. Moreover, when a primary school is"upgraded" to middle and high school status, the additional structures for thenew school often have to be built onto an already inadequate site. The primaryschool play yard is often totally given up to these new structures.

104. As a result of this structural ambiguity, secondary education isemphasized to the detriment of primary. Administrators, supervisors, and teachertrainers responsible for primary and middle school education have limited or nodirect experience at these levels and are appointed from the secondary school(grades 9-12) administrative cadres. College-educated teachers are rarelyinvolved in primary and middle school education. There is no cadre ofprofessional educators and managers focussing on the study and practice ofteaching children aged 5-12. A well-defined and rewarded career structure forprimaLry/middle school teachers and administrators is a Rrereguisite for thedevelogment of guality basic education in grades 1-8. Where the size of theschool justifies it, separate head teachers should be appointed for the primarysection, to provide a proper management focus on primary education.

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rimaX and Secondary Education: An Agenda for Refor

Teacher Training and Deployment

105. Explore all means to increase the numbers of female teachers in ruralareas by:

i. lowering entry qualifications for primary school teachers;

ii. encouraging older women to go into teaching;

iii. overhauling pre- and in-service teacher training;

iv. examining incentives to encourage women to teach outside thetowns; and

v. providing acceptable accomsodations for them.

Curriculum. Textbooks and Instructional Materials

116. Implement new primary curriculum as speedily as possible.

107. Begin a major effort to reform secondary curriculum.

108. Improve linkages between curriculum wings, teacher training andtextbook boards to ensure that new curriculum can be translated into classroompractice.

109. Maximize the use of instructional materials by providing adequate budgets,storage space, and incentives for teachers to use mater4 als, and investigate thecontribution that other educational technologies could make to upgrade quality.

Physical Facilities

110. Develop a variety of cost-effective school designs and constructiontechniques.

111. Provide financial and institutional resources to put a school maintenanceprogram in place.

Achievement Testing and Examinations

112. Reform the examination system to permit greater emphasis on internalassessment, measurement of student achievement and concept testing.

113. Integrate Examination Boards into the curriculum development process.

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Mosgue Schools

114. Use ongoing evaluation of the mosque school program to determine:

i. success in meeting objectives;

ii. whether a three-year program is 3uffiCient to impart basicliteracy and numeracy; and

iii. whether the program can encourage more girls to enter mosqueschools.

Definition

115. Examine structural problems of primary and secondary education to ensureadequate recognition of the unique problems of primary education and sufficientresources for this siubsector. Consider appointment of head teachers for theprimary sections of large schools.

B. Higher Education

116. Higher education in Pakistan is a combination of higher secondaryand tertiary levels of education, with the former outnumbering the latter by amargin of 2:1 in student enrollments. The overall participation rate in highereducation is about 3.51, with not more than 1.7X participating in tertiaryeducation. This is low in comparison with Thailand (4X), Singapore (81), India(8.3X), the Philippines (21X) and Korea (21.81). In absolute terms, however,Pakistan's higher education has expanded considerably during the last twodecades, the number of colleges growing by 100%, universities by almost 250X,and the total enrollment in higher education by 2501. This expansion isessentially an indicator of the rising social demand for higher education,because a matching economic demand for high-level manpower has been comparativelyslower in materializing (Chapter IV).

117. Higher education is administered in intermediate (upper secondary)colleges (grades 11-12), degree colleges (grades 11-14), in a few colleges thathave grades 11-16 and in general and professional universities (grades 13-20).Seventy percent of students in degree colleges are actually enrolled inintermediate programs and 621 of students in the universities are studying atthe undergraduate level. As a result, the tertiary (degree) level of educationin the colleges and the graduate (MA/MSc) and postgraduate (M.Phil, Ph.D.) levelsin the universities are at a comparative disadvantage in terms of equitabledistribution of resources. Overall resource availability is also skewed in favorof university education, which enjoys a degree of financial parity with college

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education despite having only one-eighth the enrollments20 (annex 1, tables 13and 14). Moreover, the universities are directly financed by the federalgovernment through the University Grants Commission (UGC) and the colleges arefunded by the respective provincial governments. These different modes offunding, have favored university education. As a result rf past neglect, collegeeducation, particularly at the degree level, is beset with mounting problems,which will require priority attention in coming years.

118. As annex 1, tables 15 to 18a illustrate, enrollment ratios are widelydivergent: The degree colleges enroll over 5 times as many students in thehigher secondary (or intermediate) stream as the intermediate colleges do. Theintermediate colleges, located mostly in rural and small-town locations, havenot been able to attract enough students so their objective of providing ruralstudents with greater access to education is largely unachieved. To relieve thepressure of the intermediate stream on the degree colleges, the NationalEducation Policy (1979) and the Sixth Plan (1983-85) stipulated their delinkage.In a limited way, the provinces have started introducing grade 11.-12 classes inupgraded secondary schools (Higher Secondary Schools). With advance planningand proper expansion of facilities, higher secondary schools could become themost cost-effective means of meeting the crisis of numbers (15,000 and 10,000aspirants to grade 11 could not be accommodated in Karachi and Lahore Colleges,respectively, in 1987-88). However, this strategy will be effective only if nomore intermediate colleges are established. Yet, in some provinces newintermediate colleges and new higher secondary schools are being set upsimultaneously under local pressures. This dual approach will further confusethe question of identity of grades 11-12. Do they belong to secondary or highereducation? The provinces need to develop firm policy options on how to: (i.accommodate the rising spiral of admission-seekers at the higher secondarylevels; (ii) separate higher secondary- and tertiary-level college education;(iii) evenly balance student numbers in both and rural urban facilities; and (iv)develop an affordable model of higher secondary education without compron.isingits quality.

119. Degree-Level College Education. Because the higher secondary streamcomprises 70X of the student body, degree colleges are extremely constrained.Many degree colleges suffer from inadequate pliysical facilities and laboratories,lack of equipment, furniture and modern library books, poorly maintained hostelsand a shortage of consumable supplies. The situation is particularlyunsatisfactory in older colleges located in major towns. Further, themultiplicity of subject options and combinations available at the degree levelproduces uneconomical class sizes and tends to underload or overload individualfaculty members. Only 26X of degree-level enrollment is in science subjects andtotal female participation does not exceed 40%. The duration of the bachelordegree course (2 years) has come under repeated criticism. The National

20 Data on higher education expenditures vary, deperding on source. Annex1, table 13, which details budget allocations, varies from annex 1, table 9,which shows expenditures. What is important are the relative shares ineducation of the higher education subsectors, not the absolute amounts.

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Education Policy (1979) envisaged extending it to 4 years, in keeping withinternational practice. Like other intended reforms in higher education, thisproposal was successfully resisted by student bodies on the grounds that it wouldincrease the economic burden on middle and lower income groups. Meanwhile, thequality of students entering graduate schools suffers because of inadequatepreparation at the bachelor level. Some institutions have revived the BA/BSCHonors Program, which extends the bachelor program by 1 year, which is a stepin the right direction. The 3-year bachelor degree should become a prerequisitefor graduate studies.

120. A few degree colleges administer not only undergraduate programs,but graduate-level programs (MA/MSc), mostly in the humanities. These programshave been economical, as they do not require expensive physical infrastructure,and judging from the results of public examinations, do not vary significantlyin quality from comparable university graduate programs. Student enrollment inthese programs is increasing and now equals 20% of university enrollment at thislevel. With additional investment in faculty development and the establishmentof disciplines in the natural sciences, degree-level colleges could become aneconomical vehicle for expanding graduate-level education.

121. Professional College Education. Paralleling the professionaluniversities, a number of professional colleges provide education in medicine,engineering and ;echnology, commerce, law, education and to a lesser extent inhome economics, fine arts, agriculture and local/homeopathic medicine (annex 1,table 17). The professional colleges enroll three times as many students at theundergraduate level as the professional universities and at much lhwer cost.The professional colleges. which are more economically run and have closerlinkages with the iob market than the universities, should be given higherDriority during the Seventh Plan Reriod.

122. University Education. It is a measure of increasing social pressuresthat the number of public universities has risen from 12 to 18 during the period1973-86, with enrollments jumping from 18,000 to 60,000 (annex 1, table 19).Government policy was to focus exclusively on consolidation and improvement ofquality in the university sector during the Fifth and Sixth Plan periods, butphysical expansion and quantitative growth have consistently claimed a largershare of resources. As a result of this unplanned growth, some neweruniversities have enrollments no greater than some of the older colleges. Eightuniversities have a student population under 2,000 (annex 1, table 19), withrecurrent unit costs as much as 2-3 times higher than those bigger universities.Fully 62% of overall university enrollment comprises undergraduates, withgraduate (MA/MSc) and postgraduate (M.Phil, Ph.D.) enrollments standing at 30%and 1.2%, respectively. Professional (specialized) universities have even lessfavorable enrollment ratios at the graduate and postgraduate levels, -- e.g.,24% and 14%, respectively, in the agricultural universities and 3% and 0% in theengineering universities. Allocations for research and consumable materials inthe university budgets generally do not exceed 1% and 0.7%, respectively.Graduate studies in pure and applied sciences attract only 30% of students atthis level. Female students account for 25% of enrollment at the graduate leveland represent only 15% of the total university population. Annual overall growthof enrollment in university education over the period 1983-86 has averaged 6,7%

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(about the same as the growth in primary enrollments), with enrollment ofprofessional students growing 10.3X annually (annex 1, table 20). During thesame period, the average annual growth in graduate and postgraduate enrollmenthas been around 9.42, which indicates a growing student interest at these levels.University teacher-student ratios vary widely, from a high of 1:6 to a low of1:25.

123. Overall budgetary allocations to the university subsector increased472 from 1982 to 1986, with development outlays increasing marginally and evendecreasing during 1986, and the recurrent budget increasing by 772 (annex 1,table 13). This is much less than the overall growth of education outlays (para.19). Most of the recurrent budget increase is consumed by salaries, whichaccount for 55 to 60X of an average university budget and 60 to 702 or more ofthe annual recurrent grants provided by the Government (annex 1, table 21).The extent to which university expenditures are met from university resourcesvaries between 102 and 402, of which a major share is contributed by examinationand tuition fees.

124. In addition to their main function as seats of higher learning andresearch, the general universities also affiliate degree- and graduate-levelcolleges (including some professional colleges), prescribe their courses andcurricula, conduct bachelor's and master's level examinations and award degreesand diplomas. These activities preoccupy the universities and through theregistration and examinations fees levied, are a prime source of revenue -- farexceeding the income from internal tuition fees alone (annex 1, table 21).Unfortunately, these activities also divert the universities from the developmentof greater intellectual and professional vigor in their own teaching, researchand extension programs. The guestion needs exploring: should universities bedivested of their affiliation, examination and degree-awarding role? That rolecould be entrusted either to the colleges themselves or to a specially charteredCouncil of Higher Academic Awards. Obviously, the universities would bereluctant to give up indirect control of the academic aspects of collegeeducation and particularly of the revenue that yields. However, this issue needsto be confronted, if university education is to improve in quality withoutexternal distractions.

Expansion Versus Improved Ouality and Efficiency

125. With a participation rate of only 3.5Z in higher education (includinghigher secondary), arguments in favor of expansion cannot be easily refuted,but it is equally important to use resources efficiently to achieve a minimallevel of quality. In a climate of resource constraint, hard choices have to bemade which answer both national and regional needs. Present enrollment patternsindicate that the intermediate colleges are underused (average enrollment 261);the degree colleges are by and large overcrowded (average enrollment 1,102; with702 of students in the intermediate stream) and the universities are grosslyunderused in postgraduate programs (1.22 enrollment) and often uneconomicallysmall. University enrollments vary between 687 and 9,647 (annex 1, table 19).

126. Teacher deployment ratios vary widely among colleges anduniversities, across levels of education and across subjects and courses. The

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average teacher-student ratio is 1:16 in the intermediate colleges, 1:30 in thedegree colleges and 1:12 in the universities. University teacher-student ratiosrange between 1:6 and 1:30. As there are no norms for teacher-student ratios,there are no criteria by which to judge the efficiency of staff use. Further,there is an imbalance between teachers' in-class and between-class workloads.

127. The planning of new facilities and programs is not always based onestablished needs. Underuse and failure to consolidate faculties, departmentsand course options in universities and colleges are reflected in the minusculeclass sizes in some courses and institutions. The subject of Persian, offeredin 5 universities, is taught by 16 faculty members to only 111 students at theundergraduate and graduate levels. In a number of colleges, class sizes havebeen known to drop below 10 students. There is no mechanism available for inter-institutional collaboration, through which selective concentrations of subjectand course combinations could be implemented, with a view to lowering unit costsand developing excellence in chosen disciplines in individual institutions.Further, declining demand for a particular subject area rarely leads to itsphasing out to release resources for newer programs that are in greater demand.

128. There is a clear need to optimize the use of scarce resources byconsolidating facilities in the intermediate colleges and universities andrationalizing programs in the degree colleges. Simultaneously alternative andmore economical modalities for delivering education should be explored.

129. Ouality. The poor quality of higher education is reflected in:

o overall success rates in the public examinations (32%-54% -- annex1, table 22);

o the proportion of students qualifying in the upper quartile (2%-3%);

o the number of teachers with Ph.D. degrees (26%);

o the contribution of faculty to reputed journals (not more than 5%of the faculty);

o the income generated through consultancy and research (shown as nilin several university budgets);

o the enrollment of students in Ph.D. programs (0.5%);

o the proportion of university budgets going into research (less than1%); and

o the scathing criticisms by federal and provincial public servicecommissions of the knowledge and abilities possessed by candidatesfor public service jobs.

These call attention to the critical need for major reforms in the presentsystem. Because teachers occupy so pivotal a position in both the creation andtransmission of knowledge, teacher selection and development need to receive thM

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utmost priority. An incentive system is needed to encourage teachers to improve,a system that measures performance on an ongoing basis, rather than requiringso many research publications at each stage of career development. A system ofpeer group appraisal needs to be introduced, which can identify the trainingneeds of individual teachers, thus leading to a planned teacher developmentstrategy and consistent patterns of teacher performance. Other avenues ofquality improvement should be explored, including curriculum reform, changes inteaching methods, generous research funding and an in-depth review of universitywork with a focus on the overall balance between teaching, research and extensionactivities.

130. Examinations. Higher education suffers from huge wastage rates inpublic examinations. The failure rate at the higher secondary level is about66%; at the bachelor-degree level, 65%; and at the master's level, 47%. Thereis no significant difference between the performance of undergraduates incolleges and universities or between that of graduate students in differentuniversities. The only exceptions are a few prestigious city colleges andsimilar institutions. No studies arc available on the causes of such massivefailure rates, which increase tremendously the public as well as the privatecosts of education, but the reasons include: (a) poor student motivation; (b)uninspired teaching; (c) the lack of continuous assessment of students, coupledwith liberal opportunities to re-sit annual examinations; (d) inadequatepreparation at the lower levels of education; and (e) the absence of remedialinstruction. Significantly, the failure rate of students in the compulsorysubject of English language is above 60%. Rather than analyze and remedy thissituation, some have advocated the abolition of English as a compulsory subject.

131. Physical Resources. Physical resources are seldom used at optimumefficiency. In particular, small spaces for tutorials and group work andindividualized work spaces for all teachers are difficult to find. In urbancolleges, an ever-expanding student body has produced severe overcrowding andhuge classes (of 80-100 students). In universities, on the other hand, underuseof available space is frequently visible because of departmental barriers to theshared use of facilities and uneconomical student numbers. Universities areparticularly generous in providing hostel space; the area per student, rangingfrom 164 to 383 square feet, far exceeds international norms. There is aRressing need to analyze utilization patterns to rationalize the use of exRensiveeducational spaces.

132. One of the most under-used resources, particularly in colleges, isthe library, which is often a modest space with limited reading stations; stockedwith old and unused books. Unfortunately, current teaching-learning processesdo not encourage the use of libraries. Library budgets are grossly inadequateand few professional journals and magazines are available. The budget forlibrary books ranges from Rs 22 to Rs 363 for university students, whichtranslates to at most two new books per student per year. The library budgetfor colleges is a fraction of that.

133. The state of repairs and maintenance of the physical facilities ofthe older colleges leaves much to be desired. Most colleges have an accumulatinginventory of broken furniture and unusable equipment. In particular, the science

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equipment of many colleges needs to be updated and renewed. The AsianDevelopment Bank is currently assisting a number of intermediate colleges in thisarea. The degree colleges also merit a maior investment in new eguipment. booksand teaching aids.

Management Issues

134. The broad issue of overcentralization and lack of delegated authority(para. 143 ff.) affects all educational subsectors. Nowhere is the problem moreacute than in higher education.

135. In addition, the multitude of management tiers particularly affectscollege administration, but also hampers the efficient functioning of theuniversities. Colleges have to deal with no fewer than five management tiers,including universities, boards of secondary and college education, directoratesof college education and finally the Provincial Education Secretariats. Thelines of authority and communication between these agencies are quite blurred.Universities have to deal with provincial education authorities, the UGC and theMOE. In both Sind and Punjab, experiments have started to place several collegesunder autonomous boards of governors.

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Higher Education: An Agenda for Reform

136. The reforms just discussed can be s-mmarized under the followingheadings: structural, developmental, managerial, and financial.

Structural

137. Develop firm policy on the most appropriate habitat for the highersecondary stream, which will involve decisions on:

i. separating it from college educAtion;

ii. making intermediate colleges the exclusive vehicle foradministering this stream and separating it from degreecolleges;

iii. elevating secondary schools to the higher secondary level andphasing out intermediate colleges; and

iv. developing short- and long-range plans to accommodateincreasing numbers of students.

138. Alter the structure of degree-level undergraduate education by:

i. bifurcating it into terminal (two-year) and graduate and post-graduate transfer (three-year) streams; and

ii. making the three-year degree a prerequisite for graduate(MA/MSc) education of two years' duration.

139. Establish systems to:

i. monitor trends in supply and demand for higher level manpower;and

ii. advise on appropriate annual intakes into higher education atthe various levels.

140. Explore the feasibility of establishing a Council of Higher AcademicAwards to take over the universities' function of administering collegeexaminations and certification.

141. Let the Institutes of Education and Research help with curriculumdevelopment in higher education.

Deve2lopmental

142. Systematically develop non-university graduate-level education ingeneral colleges.

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143. Develop procedures and plans for university education that encourage:

i. cptimal enrollments and use of facilities;

ii. restoration of a quantitative and qualitative balance betweenresearch, extension and postgraduate work;

iii. concentration of resources on priority disciplines;

iv. rationalization of staffing; and

v. more female participation.

144. Provide the money to upgrade and repair facilities and operationsof the degree colleges.

145. Invigorate the learning process by:

i. improving teaching;

ii. making better use of libraries;

iii. analyzing the results of public examinations to identify areasof weakness; (e.g., English); and

iv. introducing remedial programs in those areas.

Managerial

146. Selectively decentralize the management of higher education by:

i. experimentally placing 25-30 reputable colleges underautonomous boards of governors;

ii. eliminating redundant management levels such as regional/divisional directorates of college education; and

iii. allowing colleges greater freedom in teacher recruitment.

Financial

147. Explore avenues to lower public costs of higher education by:

i. increasing student fees to finance 35% of public expenditures;

ii. authorizing colleges in high demand to charge higher fees; and

iii. developing cost-sharing mechanisms between the public andprivate sectors.

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C. Nanagesent and Administration of Education

148. Pakistan's educational and training system is large and growing,complex and diverse. With thousands of units ranging from small primary schoolsto universities, the management and administration of education is among the mostcomplex of any government service. Yet the difficulties in efficiently managingeducational services are perhaps less well understood than in other sectors.Educational expenditures now comprise about 10X of total government expendituresand the share is growing, so it is essential that these expenditures be wellmanaged.

149. The structure of educational administration in Pakistan reflects thatof the wider system of public administration. At the top, generalist civilservants in the federal and provincial secretariats report to ministers and areresponsible for policy. They are assisted by operational and technicaldirectorates comprising professional educators and technical staff. As thesystem has grown, both the secretariats and technical groups have becomeoverburdened. Because the system of public administration relies heavily oncontrol mechanisms to ensure accountability in the use of public funds, it hasproved extremely difficult to delegate authority down the line and thus ease theburden on the management groups. Yet by its very nature education is providedby a multitude of small, dispersed units, so delegation is essential to efficientmanagement of the system. Moreover, the quality of many administrators at alllevels of the educational hierarchy is high enough to make more delegation bothfeasible and desirable.

150. The mission reviewed a number of issues affecting the efficientdelivery of education in Pakistan. Its conclusions are presented in a separateworking paper, Organization and Management Issues in the Education Sector; whichdeals in some detail with the civil service structure, financial management,educational planning, federal-provincial structures in education, provincialeducation departments, local bodies and the management of educationalinstitutions.

151. The following section summarizes the key issues affecting themanagement and administration of education. No outside observer can do more thanhint at how to resolve these issues. The overriding theme seems to be theinherent conflict between the increasing centralization of decision-making andmanagement that have resulted from government concern about education (e.g., theFive Point program) and, the need for increased decentralization of decision-making and financial authority.

Federal-Provincial Relations

152. In theory, the MOE acts both as a technical resource and as a channelof communication on national educational policy to the provinces. It providesboth control and guidance on curriculum, textbooks and standards. Provincialeducation departments (PEDs) implement national policy and formulate provincialpolicies, procedures and guidelines. Resource allocation is primarily theresponsibility of the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and Planning Commission (PC) with

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their counterpart provincial Finance and Planning and Development (P and D)departments. The provinces and GOP meet formally at the Inter-ProvincialEducation Ministers' Conference, at meetings of officials from MOE and the PEDs,at meetings of the Inter-Provincial Development Committee, and at numerous adhoc meetings.

153. Ideally, the system should encourage provincial diversity and at thesame time safeguard national policy and a'low for a federal lead when necessary.For example, a new primary school curriculum is being tested in the Islamabadfederal area. Baluchistan and NWFP have opted to test the curriculum, while Sindand the Punjab have decided to develop their own model with federal approval.

154. However, the increased GOP focus on education in recent years andthe provinces' almost total dependence on federal funding for education havetended to undermine the balance between GOP and the provinces. The Five Pointprogram, for example, has imposed mandatory quantitative targets on the provinceswhich have caused shifts in intrasectoral allocations. Since the provinces sharethe Five Point program priorities, the extent of change imposed has not beengreat -- but the potential for problems is significant.

155. The extent to which centralized initiatives such as the Five Pointprogram work in the long term will depend on the degree to which such initiativescan be "sold" and delegated to the provinces, especially to the provincialeducational hierarchy. Communications between all levels of the system needimproving to ensure that initiatives are understood and adapted to localconditions. In terms of financial management, the core of the federal-provincialrelationship is the link between the four key resource-allocating agencies --the MOF, the PC and the provincial departments of Finance and P and D. Therelationships between these agencies, the MOE and the PEDs is not entirely clear,even in such "technical" areas as curriculum development and teacher training.An effort to define and agree upon lines of communication and decision-makingbetween the many agencies involved in the Rlanning. financing and delivery ofeducation aRRears to be long overdue. Two key questions need answering in theevolving relations between GOP and the provinces: (a) Can growing federalprovision of resources and imposition of targets be reconciled with provincialcontrol of operations and adaptation to local circumstances? and (b) Can thepositive aspects of the PM Program's focus on quantitative, time-bound targetsbe reproduced at the provincial level without affecting other desirable reforms,such as decentralization of management responsibilities?

Provincial Management and Administration of Education

156. The provincial educational system is complex and diverse, with eachprovince responding differently to educational needs and geographical anddemographic realicies. It is important to look at administrative improvementor reform on a province-by-province, case-by-case basis.

157. At the apex of the provincial system are the PEDs, made up of thesecretariat and various functional directorates. The distinctive roles ofsecretariats and directorates are clear, in theory. The secretariat has the

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classical staff function of advising the secretary, who in turn advises theminister on policy alternatives. Decisions are made by the minister, or theeducation secretary on the minister's behalf, and are implemented by the variousdirectorates. Directorates are the line agencies, responsible primarily forimplementing policy but also for providing professional and technical advice tothe minister. Directors and provincial education secretaries are usually at. thesame grade -- NPS 20. The ideal is a partnership in which the secretariat isclearly supreme, responsibility is shared, and the professional advise andguidance of the directorate feeds into policy making. In practice, relationshipshave deteriorated and the division of authority and responsibilities is nowblurred. As might be expected, perceptions on both sides are contradictory.

158. Directorate officials often see secretariat decisions asinsufficiently influenced by professional realities. They feel that thesecretariat intervenes in implementation at too low a level. Secretariatdecisions tend to be short-term and sometimes inconsistent, and secretariatofficials may resist innovations based on professional advice. The dominant roleof the secretariat has rendered partnership difficult.

159. Secretariat perceptions are less easy to define. The growth ofdirectorate staffs and budgets has increased anxiety about directorate capacityto manage effectively and efficiently. Secretariat officials are conscious ofthe need to intervene more directly. Fears about bias in decision-making alsoencourage intervention, albeit possibly on behalf of higher political decision-makers. Greatly increased federal government concern about education has meantthat previous provincial prerogatives have been substantially influenced (e.g.,by the Five Point program).

160. Any agenda for possible management reform must consider secretariat-directorate relations in the context of rapid increases in educationalexpenditures and management responsibilities. Centralization of educationaldecision-making through the provincial secretariats may no longer be sustainableif the greater scale of activity is to be handled effectively. Secretariats havegrown relatively slowly so the burdens on secretariat officials have increasedenormously.

161. The directorate structure varies considerably in different provincesand appears to have adapted more readily to changing needs than the secretariats.The core directorates in all provinces are directorates of schools and colleges.However, unlike the other provinces, Sind operates a geographical "divisional"directorate system without functional directorates at the top for the wholeprovince. There is no conclusive evidence that one pattern is more effectivethan the other.

162. Over the years, special technical directorates have been created -- e.g., of technical education, curriculum development, teacher and extensiontraining and engineering. Not surprisingly, the more populous provinces, whichprovide a greater range of education have the most directorates and greaterproblems of coordination and matching capacity to activity.

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163. Such problems can be compounded by the practice of adding specialdirectorates to, for example, expand primary education in Baluchistan, anddevelop mosque schools in Sind. These directorates are sometimes linked toforeign aid projects. Special directorates can help bring in additionalresources, give weight to new activities in provincial decision-making, and helpensure implementation -- but they can also add to confusion about lines ofauthority and communication. Some subsectors have remained merged that shouldbe separate (e.g., primary and secondary schools). Some have developedseparately without proportionate resources (e.g., curriculum development, in-service training, and technical education).

164. At subprovincial levels there are well developed hierarchies ofeducation officials at divisional, district, subdivisional, tehsil (known astalukas in Sind), markaz and union levels. There are parallel hierarchies ofmale and female officers at District Education Officer (DEO) level and below forboys' and girls' schools. There are considerable provincial variations. Forexample, the two larger provinces, the Punjab and Sind, divide directorates atthe divisional level into schools and colleges; the complexity of subdivisionaladministration also varies. Whether sub-units are staffed below the tehsillevel depends on the scale of education provided. Assistant Education Officers(AEOs) are posted to markaz units in the Punjab, but the other, numericallysmaller provinces, maintain staff at the tehsil level only. Learningcoordinators and supervisors, whose function is to provide close supervision ofthe increasing numbers of primary schools, are now regular features of theeducational hierarchies.

165. The DEO is the linchpin of the whole system. He or she is the keysupervisory and administrative official for all of the schools in the district.Although more responsibility is being delegated to administrative subordinates,they all still essentially report to the DEO. There is strong evidence that thekey relationship is that of the DEO and the Provincial Director of Schools.Except in Sind, the divisional director appears to be more a coordinator andtransmittor of decisions than a decision-maker.

166. The large additional burden of the expanding primary education hasfallen on the DEO and his subordinates. Such is the pattern of administrationthat virtually all decisions on staffing, promotions and resource allocationshave to be approved by the DEO or passed through his office, or by himpersonally, to higher authority. At the same time, the DEO is responsible forprofessior.al inspection and supervision, which requires extended visits toindividual schools. These two roles, combined with an additional role in theplanning process for new investments, have combined in many districts andprovinces to create intolerable burdens. Faced with the demands of bureaucracy,the DEO particularly neglects the work of visiting and supervising schools.Supervision and standards in the primary and middle schools lose out tosupervision of the more visible and politically important secondary and highersecondary schools. In any case, the number of primary schools is so great andis growing so rapidly that it would be impossible for a DEO to provide effectivesupervision himself.

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167. In most provinces, District Development or District CoordinationCommittees, have major advisory powers over local investment decisions andincreasing funding authority through special programs. DEOs, although notComzzitte members, are required to attend their meetings and devote much officetime to their needs.

168. Reform efforts are being considered and a number have beenimplemented. Increased numbers of subordinate staff at the levels of AEO/ASDEC(Assistant Subdivision Education Officer) and supervisor/learning coordinatorare being appointed to improve school supervision. As part of the IDA - assistedThird Primary Education Project, ratios of officials to schools are to be lowered(AEO:schools to 1:50 and learning coordinator:schools to 1:15). Opinion differs,however, on the effectiveness of these staff members, even with improved ratios.First, there is the question of supervising the supervisors and second thequestion of their real effcctiveness in eliciting improvements.

169. There have been calls for separate administrative hierarchies forprimary education, either within the Schools Directorate or as a completelyseparate Directorate of Primary Education. The key argument is that separatestaff and a separate institutional focus will ensure adequate capacity and equalpriority. This rationale is at the center of the case for creating a separate"Additional Directorate of Public Instruction (Primary Education)" in the ThirdPrimary Education Project. Whether this experiment can be replicated dependson a number of factors, including the "definability" of "primary school" (para.88).

Financial Management

170. The provincial financial dependence on the federal government foreducation expenditures has already been discussed (para. 25). It remains toconsider allocation and approval systems and procedures at provinci.l levels andlo7wer. These are detailed and exhaustive. Incorrectly carried out proceduresand delayed aporovals are often greater barriers to Rerformance than shortagesof funds.

171. In general, the 'inancial systems used in education are similar tothose used throughout public administration and are not peculiar to educationor particular provinces, even though separate rules may be published byprovincial governments. Several sets of rules apply, including conduct- of-business rules, efficiency and discipline rules, general financial rules,accounts rules, and treasury rules. Two examples illustrate the impact of theserules:

a. The first example is the approval sequence for expenditures underthe Special Federal Program known as the MNAs Program, which involvessignificant expenditures (usually over Rs 100,000) on a new school."Administrative Approval" (which may itself be the product of alengthy approval process) 4.s issued by the Federal Ministry of LocalGovernment to the provincial P and D Department which can take upto 1 month to give approval and to the provincial finance departmentwhich can take between 10 days and 2 months to "sanction" the

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expenditure as it will not do so until the P and D have agreed. Fromthere it goes to the provincial Accountant-General for sanction --which takes another 10 days to 1 month; from there to the provincialtreasury (either under the Accountant-General or a Consolidated FundAccount of the State Bank of Pakistan) which releases a check within10 days to 1 month; from there to the provincial localgovernment/rural development department, which passes it (in 2 days,they say), to the executing agency which, cashes the check (within10 days to 2 months) by presenting it to the provincial treasury andState Bank of Pakistan branch which could object if the check isimproperly cleared or sanctioned. Thg whole process can take 4 to6 months in this by no means untvDical example. And in the process,the authorization may 'lapse" at the close of the financial year andhave to be resubmitted the following year.

b. The second example is simpler but more graphic. Under the financialrules of the Punjab government, published in 1983 but apparentlystill in force, PED directors can authorize up to Rs 50,000 and DEOs(along with principals of colleges and headmaster of high schools)up to Rs 10,000 for the purchase of "scientific equipment, furniture,instruments and teaching material." Other disbursing officers, suchas AEOs, are allowed up to Rs 2,000. In all cases, these powers areto be exercised with the "concurrence" of the Education Departmentpurchase committees. PED Directors can authorize up to Rs 10,000and DEOs up to Rs 5,000 for annual or special repairs to buildings.These are very small sums even with the comparatively low cost ofeguipment and reRairs in Pakistan.

172. The point is not so much in the detail of the above examples, butin the evidence they present of a system that maximizes control as the mainobjective. Lower officials take a lot of time to make this system work,especially when their personal presence is required, and it is time taken at theexpense of other tasks. Progress in simulifving and streamlining the approvaland procedural seguence is urgently needed. A small-scale, incremental approachwill encourage support by demonstrating tangible improvements after relativelyshort periods and minor disruption.

173. Yet at some stage two fundamentally linked issues will have to betackled: the presumption that lower-level government officials will inevitablymisuse resources and make mistakes if they are allowed any freedom andresponsibility and the resulting insistence on a rigid system of prior approvaisfor any action. Long-term reform goals should be decentralization of decision-making powers and a shift to a system of accountability in which performance isassessed against criteria agreed-upon in advance.

174. One of the keys to greater flexibility and speed of action is theGOP audit and accounts system. The audit and consolidated accounting functionsare, unusually, both vested in the Accountant General's office for the provinceor in some cases in special separate accounting offices set up for largedepartments. Monthly consolidation of accounts by a separate office, combinedwith a rigid system of scrutinizing expenditure before payment is inevitably a

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source of delay. Obviously, changes would ultimately affect the whole GOPsystem. However, changes in individual offices are proceeding. The forestrydepartments in the Punjab and Sind, apparently uniquely, have been given theresponsibility of consolidating their own accounts. Education is a much largerand more complex department, but giving it that responsibility could bebeneficial. District Accounts Offices and the outposting of Auditor-Generalstaff to departments are other changes that are gradually being discussed andtested.

Local Involvement in Education

175. Structure. Currently councils are elected at district and unionlevels in the rural areas and at metropolitan corporation, municipal and townlevels in the urban areas. In 1983, the latest year for which data wereavailable, there were (in rural areas) 72 district councils, and 3,800 unioncouncils,and (in urban areas) 12 metropolitan corporations, plus municipal andtown councils.

176. Most councils have had no involvement with education since 1972, whenthe sector was "provincialized." The exceptions are a few of the largermetropolitan corporations, notably Karachi and Lahore, which have retained thefinancial capacity to run primary and secondary schools. The possibility ofreturning to local involvement in education, especially at the primary level isfrequently debated in Pakistan. Would this reform make delivery of educationmore effective and efficient?

177. ResDonsibilities and Financing. Local government reforms in Pakistanhave been frequent and far-reaching. The current pattern dates from 1979 whenelected district and municipal councils were reintroduced. Councils havelegislative responsibility for local services. In rural areas, these includeroad maintenance, public health and sanitation, drinking water, affolestation,animal husbandry, registratien of births and deaths, sports and "promotion" ofprimary and adult education. 1in urban centers, responsibilities include drinkingwater, drainage, public health aid sanitation, street lighting, registers, fireservices, "educational institutivns" and adult education.

178. The real extent of development responsibilities in these areas ismuch less clear-cut. Local government and development are provincialresponsibilities, and provincial government departments handling developmentexpenditure in these fields have extensive implementation networks down to unioncouncil level. Funds are controlled and spent by these departments. Chairmenof district and municipal councils are officially project directors of a rangeof rural development projects, but their role appears to be quite limited.

179. The main reason local councils play a limited role in educationaldevelopment is that they do not have direct control of financial resources. Thetaxes and duties they control yield comparatively small revenues except in majorurban and trading centers like Karachi. In the rural areas, union councils havevirtually no revenue. Districts levy export tax on produce leaving their areas,which provides 50X of their funds; collect property taxes and in some casesrents; and have a range of small fees and licenses. Urban councils at

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metropolitan, municipal and town levels depend mainly on "octroi," a producesales tax; on a percentage of the property taxes that are collected by provincialgovernments and shared on a variable basis with urban units; and on such itemsas road toll taxes, fees for water, fire services, conservancy and rents forshops. Income in both rural and urban councils is proportionate to the overalllevel of local economic activity.

180. The predominant assessment among officials concerned with localgovernment and among council chairmen is that local bodies have insufficientrevenues and resources to provide meaningful inputs in the education sector.Were directly controlled resources to increase, opinions vary:

a. At one extreme is the view that councils have had little involvementwith education for so long that they have lost the expertise andmanagement skills required. Education should be left to the expertsin the PED and its subordinate units.

b. There are a number of intermediate positions. Cost-sharingmechanisms, in which PEDs would meet initial construction and start-up costs and local councils would finance salary and maintenance,or at least (in deference to teacher concerns), maintenance costsis one possibility. So is the converse in which councils would fundprimary school construction, which would then be managed by the PED.A third option is for local councils to concern themselves only withsupervision, employing education inspectors to supplement theoverburdened provincial network.

c. At the other extreme, is a more ambitious concept -- that councilsshould finance and manage at least their primary schools. Fundswould come from a combination of provincial grants (passing onfederal funds) and increased council revenue-raising powers.Councils would have their own education departments and staff, andwould play a role in the employment of teachers, but would be subjectto common supervision and examinations. A start would be made withthe richer district councils, metropolitan corporations and municipalcommittees. However, many of the poorer areas would never be ableto fulfill these responsibilities.

181. Teachers are apparently opposed to local control, fearing lessfavorable treatment. The Government could agree to teachers staying on civilservice pay scales, but should resist policies such as granting tenure orpreventing transfer, which would drastically reduce local management control.To reduce the possibility of teacher abuse by local councils, arrangements fordue process would need to be worked out.

182. Karachi MetroRolitan Corporation (KMC). By far the most successfulcurrent example of a local council running primary schools is the KMC, whichdirectly controls over 500 primary schools, 3 primary teacher training colleges,111,000 pupils and 4,000 teachers. Its recurrent education budget has grownfrom Rs 83 million to Rs 131 million between 1985-86 and 1987-88. In 1987-88,Rs 19 million was spent on school construction. With the exception of just over

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Rs 10 million from the Sind Provincial government, all funds come from KHC's ownrevenues.

183. KMC's network coexists institutionally and physically, though withlittle contact, with the provincial primary school system under the Director ofSchool Education for Karachi. Qualitative comparisons would be difficultto make, but there seem to be no grounds for assuming any inferiority ordeficiencies in the KMC system. Teachers are paid on government pay scales.

184. Whether the Karachi system could be replicated on a significantscale elsewhere is a difficult question. Other municipal corporations do runschools, but on a far smaller scale. Karachi is far larger than any other urbanarea in Pakistan and is uniquely well placed to benefit from the octroi tax.In some urban areas, private schooling is now prov.7ding a viable alternate toprovincial schools and the rapid growth of privat~e schools may render a largemunicipal involvement less necessary.

185. Nonetheless, KMC does provide a possible model of local control andownership of primary schools. Comparatively large funds are mobilized fromlocal revenue sources for education, without, it can be assumed, major diversionfrom other urban responsibilities for services and development. And primaryeducation appears to be provided at least as effectively and efficiently as inthe provincial system.

Management of Educational Institutions

186. Provincial Education Departments control primary and secondaryschools up to and including degree colleges and polytechnics. Universities arecontrolled by the University Grants Commission, although re-establishment ofprovincial control is under discussion and may be implemented if GOP and theprovincial governments can agree upon an acceptable financing formula.

187. "Control" is the best word to describe the management relationship.Provincial directorates have complete authority over their institutions, andcollege principals and school heads have very limited management and financialauthority. In Sind, for example, a principal is allowed to spend only Rs 100on his own authority with receipts, and up to Rs 5,000 if quotations areobtained. For higher amounts, full tenders and a tender committee are required.Principals and headmasters have no legal powers to appoint, promote or transferstaff, even though they write annual confidential reports about them. Personnelmanagement responsibilities lie almost entirely with the DEO and his assistants(for schools), and with divisional and provincial directors (for colleges).

188. That little importance is attached to institutional management isdemonstrated by the fact that headmasters of middle and high schools areexpected to teach full loads and manage their schools "when they have time," asone official put it. The quality of management in educational institutions isimpaired by the institutional managers' lack of delegated authority.

189. Universities have autonomy in day-to-day management but aredependent on the UGC for recurrent as well as development budgets, as fees and

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other income are very low. Even agreed-upon funds are provided ratherirregularly, causing recurrent budgetary crises, spasmodic progress and costoverruns.

190. Financial authorization procedures are often cumbersome. Personalattendance by the concerned official at the approving agency may be required ifpermission is to be obtained or resources actually released. Great amounts oftime and energy are wasted.

191. This control system, coupled with student unrest, trade unionactivity, and recurrent resource shortages, creates powerful disincentives fortaking initiative or accepting personal responsibility for improved performance.The 'open" and 'promotional' quota system for promotions, which is often heavilyweighted in favor of "paper" qualifications and against actual assessment ofperformance, further discourages progress. This system of tightlycircumscribing action through rules, regulations and, above all, the need forprior approval or permission paralyzes the system, inhibits initiative, andprevents staff from taking personal responsibility for problems. Incentives andrewards for improved performance are almost entirely absent and would bemeaningless with so little scope for autonomous action.

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Management and Administration: Agenda for Reform

192. Two major reform themes emerge in a discussion of organization andmanagement issues. These are summarized below in order of importance:

193. Decentralization of ResRonsibilities and Decision-Making andIncreased Accountability

a. Establish separate directorates (e.g., for primary education;curriculum development and teacher training; and mosque schools) toease workloads, focus on key neglected areas of education, andcapitalize on the centralizing characteristics of theadministration.

b. Provide district-level administrators with more staff aid give themenough power to do a good job. As it is, DEOs neglect academicsupervision because of administrative overload.

c. Provide enough staff at subdivisional levels and lower to superviselower-level administrators and teachers, who are so poorly trainedthat such supervision is important.

d. Assess the possibility of a phased program of provincial grants andenough delegated responsibility to allow the larger urban localbodies and richer district councils to play a supervisory,manager .al and possibly a financial role in education.

e. Increase delegated authority to heads of secondary schools, collegesand universities to allow more autonomous management of finance,procurement and personnel.

f. Shift to a system of accountability in which performance is assessedretrospectively against criteria agreed upon in advance. Evaluateand reward actual achievements rather than credentials or record-keeping. Accountability in this form should not diminish overallcontrol but should provide incentives for individual andinstitutional performance and improvement.

g. Develop career and promotional patterns that allow specialists toadvance within their field of specialty. As things stand, peoplemust move out of primary or secondary education to be promoted abovea certain level, and top posts tend to be filled on the basis oseniority and formal qualifications rather than aptitude anirelevant experience. Provide incentives for superior or improvEdperformance -- e.g., incremental raises for increasing pass ratesor reducing teacher absenteeism or the number of student dropouts.Adopt a policy of open recruitment and internal appointments ofqualified applicants (e.g., selecting a school's headmaster fromamong its teachers, if qualified).

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h. Provide more structural flexibility within the provincialeducational system to allow needed specialization to develop.Combine pre- and in-service teacher training with curriculumdevelopment in one directorate; create separate directorates forprimary and secondary education; and oversee mosque schoolsseparately.

i. Develop mechanisms that allow more rapid responses to changingpolicy, planning and financial priorities.

j. Improve lateral communication and cooperation at all levels so thatpeople with common interests and problems are in direct touch witheach other without always having to go through the secretariat.

k. Provide much more in-service, pre-service and postgraduate trainingin educational planning and management and link such training toappointments and nromotions. Strengthen education extension centersand AEPAM; uild up more capability in this field at the NationalInstitute of Public Administration (NIPA); and encourage AIOU to runin-service courses.

194. Simplification of Work Rules and Procedures

a. Analyze issues and problems related to excess control and regulationfrom the top, and provide senior administrators and educators withawareness-building seminars ahouit the wastefulness of complexapproval systems and the consequent tendency for people to bypassrules. Enlist high-level support for change and then involve seniormanagement in devising alternative procedures. Move toward simplerprocedures and more delegation of decision-making, particularly inconnection with finance, purchasing, and personnel management.

b. Clarify key roles and working relationships. Confusion anduncertainty attend the relationships between federal and provincial,political and administrative roles. Accept the primary "technical"role of the MOE. Strengthen relationships between the personnel inplanning, finance and education at the federal (PC, MOF, MOE) andprovincial (P and D, Finance and PED) levels. Modify the role ofthe federal tier in external development projects to ensure thatimplementation is managed from the provincial level downward.Clarify the roles of special programs (e.g., MNAs, MPAs) ineducational development and decide which parts of the Five Pointprogram are worth preserving in other development efforts.

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IV. LINKING TRAINING TO THE LABOR MARKET

A. Introduction

195. Pakistan's economy is experiencing a phenomenon common to manydeveloping countries: a rapidly expanding labor force, high levels of rural-urban migration, an economy unable to absorb all the new members of the laborforce despite perceived shortages of some types of skilled manpower. At thesame time, education and training (including colleges and universities) are seenas being unresponsive to labor market needs. Planners have expressed increasingconcern that a rapid expansion of secondary education will increase the numberof "educated unemployed" young people (who lack the skills needed to gain jobsin the modern economy), while conventional manpower forecasting techniquessuggest shortages of skilled industrial manpower.

196. In response to these perceived problems, policy-makers arecontemplating further vocationalization of secondary and higher education in aneffort to provide young job seekers with better opportunities. To quote arecent Government document ,21

"Secondary education should go through a major overhaul during theSeventh Plan, with a significant shift towards vocationalization andqualitative improvement. Skills like ... agriculture, horticulture,fish culture, animal husbandry, plumbing, welding, turning,electrical wiring, wood work ... should be incorporated into theMiddle School Curriculum to strengthen the lateral linkages with themarket.

Technical education in grades 9-10 should aim to prepare studentsfor the polytechnics and to train them for more sophisticated rolessuch as lab technicians, medical and dental technicians ... nurses,typists, accountants, secretarial employees, insurance and bankingassistants. It could also cover advanced and specialized forms ofskills learned at the Middle level such as modular furniture, carpetdesign, farm economics."

197. In this chapter, we discuss the extent to which large futureinvestments in training are (a) desirable and necessary to meet labor marketneeds and provide job opportunities and (b) cost-effective (the recurrent unitcost of training at a technician training center being Rs 5,000-6,000 comparedwith less than Rs 900 for secondary education).

21 Agenda for Educational Development. 1988-93, MOE, 1987.

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198. When the draft report was discussed with authorities in Pakistan inJanuary 1988, it became clear that our basic conclusions had aroused somecontroversy. These conclusions are:

o All available indicators suggest that present labor marketconditions do not warrant major additional investments in formalpublic sector vocational training or technical education at thepresent time;

o Investments in the Seventh Plan should focus more on consolidatingand improving the quality of existing facilities rather thancreating new capacity;

o If new capacity is planned, the onus should be on the planners todemonstrate future demand for the graduates (i.e. planning shouldbe demand- not supply-driven);

o Vocationalizing secondary education to provide better jobopportunities for secondary school graduates is not onlyunaffordable, but is likely to fail in Pakistan as it has failedelsewhere;

o In the context of the very low literacy rates prevailing in thecountry, the most appropriate form of vocational training is toprovide the increased basic education (literacy and numeracy) thatwill make the labor force more trainable.

199. It needs to be emphasized that the Bank will continue to support thedevelopment of an efficient and equitable system of vocational training andtechnical education (VTTE) in Pakistan. The issue is not the existence ofpublicly funded VTTE, but the modalities of provision and the extent to whichwholesale expansion is affordable, required by the labor market and useful infulfilling social objectives. We question the thesis that large-scale new publicinvestments, particularly in preemployment training are necessarily beneficialeither socially or economically under present conditions in Pakistan. Greatcare must be taken in planning new investments. For example, thevocationalization of secondary education to make secondary school graduates moreemployable needs to be reconsidered from the viewpoints of affordability,external efficiency and priority. Making people more trainable through betterbasic education should be a very high priority for planners in Pakistan.Literacy, numeracy, social and language skills and an understanding of theoutside world are the foundations for all forms of higher education andtraining, the prerequisites for attaining job skills, and the aptitudesemployers seek first and foremost in their work force.

200. Achieving Social Equitv through Vocational Training. Many officialsin Pakistan argue that by improving job opportunities, VTTE is an importantweapon in the fight to develop a more equitable education and training system.That providing increased training capacity is not by itself the answer toPakistan's unemployment problems is a recurrent theme of this chapter, borne out

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by the experiences of neighboring labor-surplus countries. This issue andseveral others are addressed in the succeeding paragraphs.

201. Ideally, the provision of training should be determined solely bymarket forces. In reality, of course, market conditions in Pakistan, aselsewhere, are much less than perfect, and it can be argued that to reach thesocially optimal volume of training investment, the government must subsidizetraining. A number of countries have publically funded training programs tocope with the social problems of unemployed youth. However, publically fundedinstitution-based training tends to be inequitable, becaus.e those who manage toenter high-cost programs get more subsidies than those who are ineligible orunable to participate. Moreover, since availqble places in the traininginstitutions are limited, only a fraction of the target population actuallygains access to government subsidies for vocational training. More equitablemodes of training with a larger outreach potential -- such as apprenticeshiptraining, on-the-job training, nonformal/informal training and sandwich orcooperative training programs -- are also available and have been extensivelyused, particularly in the developed world. What is therefore essential in anynational training system is a mix of modes of training, balanced to maximize theimpact of tiaining investments in terms of both quality and number ofbeneficiaries.

202. There is, of course, no global formula for the optimal mix oftraining modes. However, since vocational training is invariably an expensiveundertaking, in any country with limited resources the primary criterion shouldbe achieving cost-effectiveness. This criterion abundantly favors the non-institutional, enterprise-based modes of training, which are also flexible andmore attuned to the job market. In the Pakistani context, the overemphasis ofVTTE planners on full institutional training precludes consideration of othermodes, and in the process deprives the training delivery system of importantinteractions with the changing labor market. As a result, the quality andrelevance of the programs suffer, their graduates are less employable and thegoal of social equity is not achieved.

203. The arguments for and against further large-scale governmentintervention in pre-employment training in Pakistan (summarized in Annex 3) arecomplex. Indeed, no absolute prescription can be given in a rapidlychanging economy.

B. The Institutional Framework for Providing Training

204. The two most important agencies providing occupational training arethe Ministry of Labor, Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis (MOL) and the MOE, withtheir provincial counterparts. Active roles are also played by the SmallIndustries Corporations or Boards, the Women's Division, the Overseas PakistanisFoundation, the Ministry of Agriculture, and several other government andsemigovernment bodies. In addition, some large enterprises provide formaltraining, much training is provided by private institutes, and an unknown but

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large volume of training takes place on the job through informal apprenticeshipsand other arrangements.

205. The Manpower Division of the MOL is responsible for manpowerplanning at the national level and for hosting the National Training Bureau,which was established in 1976. Under the National Training Ordinance, 1980, theBureau became the secretariat of the interministerial National Training Boardand as such the federal counterpart of the four Provincial Training Boardsestablished by the same ordinance. One of its most important responsibilitieshas been implementation of the National Vocational Training Project (NVTP),which is now entering its second phase.

206. The Provincial Labor Departments are responsible for the TechnicalTraining Centers (TTCs), the Apprentice Training Centers (ATCs) and, in thePunjab, the Government Vocational Institutes for Boys (GVIBs). The mainoffering of the TTCs are 2-year full-time certificate courses, but some alsooffer 1-year full-time courses in a second shift. The ATCs operate under theApprenticeship Ordinance (1962) and provide block release training in 2installments of 6 months each, supplemented for some apprentices by day-releaselectures during the period spent with the employer.

207. Occupational training has grown rapidly under the NVTP. SixteenTTCs with a total enrollment capacity of 7,500 were due to be operating by theend of Phase I, more than double the capacity in 1983; the ATCs will haveincreased their number from 3 to 7 and their capacity from 350 to over 2,000 inthe same period; and while there will be no new GVIBs, the existing 14 willhave increased their capacity from 1,300 to 3,350. The responsibility forfinancing the increase in recurrent expenditures required by this expansion isinitially borne by the federal government and eventually transferred to theprovinces.

208. The administrative structure for technical and vocational educationparallels that for occupational training. The Federal Ministry of Educationtakes a leading role in planning and coordination and the provincial departmentsare responsible for implementation. Below university level, the most importantinstitutions run by the provincial departments are the polytechnics and theGovernment Vocational Institutes for Boys and Girls (except Jn the case of thePunjab GVIBs). In addition, some schools offer agrotechnical conirses in grades6-8 and vocational streams in grades 9 and 10. The Provincial Boards ofTechnical Education are responsible for registering and monitoring privatetraining establishments, and admitting the students of recognized establishmentsto the public examinations held by them. Professional colleges and universitiesprovide professional education and training (Chapter III).

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C. Is There a Skills Shortage?

209. The general view is that a massive increase in training provisionis necessary if growth of Pakistan's economy is not to be constrained by ashortage of skilled labor. For example, the 1986 PC-I document for the NationalVocational Training Project, Phase II, estimates that 114,000 additional skilledworkers are needed each year, a figure that greatly exceeds the estimatedexisting skilled worker training capacity of 42,000 a year.

210. Although this view is widely accepted, it is rather questionable anddirectly contradicted by the findings of recent establishment surveys andsimilar studies. It is based on a simplistic manpower forecasting methodologywhich, I-ternational experience has shown, involves a misunderstanding of howskills are developed and employment is created.

211. Manpower analysis in Pakistan shares the same three weaknesses thatare commonly found in other countries: first, there is an uncritical acceptanceof, and an overreliance on national forecasts of "requirements" of skilledworkers. For many years training priorities in Pakistan have been estimated bya very unreliable technique, usually described as the manpower requirementsapproach. This methodology is of use only in guiding training for occupationsfor which demand is demographically-determined: teachers, doctors and otherhealth workers, and some types of agricultural extension workers. Internationalexperience has shown that for other occupations, even the most elaborateforecasting methods yield projections of training requirements that areessentially random.22 This is no accident, since the methodology is based on afundamental misconception of how ewTioyment is generated. For mostnonprofessional occupations, and even some professional ones, trainingpriorities cannot be identified by making independent estimates of the supplyand demand for a particular occupation. The chief error in the approach is theimplicit assumption that supply and demand are independent of one another. Theerror is compounded by a view that investment in skills is like investment inequipment, something that is undertaken separately of production and prior toit. In fact, for most occupations, training and employment are not separateprocesses, but a joint one.

212. Second, the manpower forecasting approach ignores the fact thatwithin any single trade there is a hierarchy of different levels of skills. On-the-job training is responsible for most of the progression of workers from onelevel of skill to the next. Formal training can accelerate the process, but can

22 Recent typical examples of the utter unreliability of the methodologyare provided by ex-post evaluations of its application in India (M.V. Verma,"Review of Skilled Manpower Forecasts in India," in R.V. Youdi and K.Hinchcliffe (editors), Forecasting Skilled Manpower Needs: The Experience ofEleven Countries, Paris: International Institute for Educational Planning,1985) and South Korea (Kim Sookon, In-Service Training as an Instrument forthe Development of Human Resources in Korea, Paris: OECD DevelopmentCenter/Korean Chamber of Commerce, 1986, draft).

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at most be only a partial substitute for on-the-job training. In fact, in manycases formal training is at best regarded, not as a substitute, but as acomplement to the worker's on-the-job trainability. In this resp2ct. generaleducation is just as "vocational" as formal training for mans occuDations, aview shared by many employers in Pakistan. In a survey commissioned by theBank23 all 35 employers who revealed preferences about hiring preferred workerswith on-the-job training to those with school-based technical training.

213. Third, insufficient attention is paid in Pakistan to the feedbackavailable from the evaluations of training institutes and analysis of the labormarket. In general, training provision in Pakistan has a well-developedstructure and is administered by experienced and able staff. One sign of thematurity of the administrative system is the importance attached to monitoringand evaluating both the internal and external efficiency of the major trainingestablishments. Both regular surveys and ad hoc studies ore generally robustlycritical in nature and hence most useful for identifying aspects of trainingthat require attention. Their value could be further enhanced by severalmeasures: increasing the regularity of placement studies; strengthening feedbackfrom employers; supplementing published data with narrative analyses and viceversa; and a more rigorous application of standard survey methods. But even intheir present form they provide a solid basis for determining priorities.

214. Yet the signals in these often excellent surveys of internal andexternal efficiency are generally ignored in planning new training. Despitetheir unreliability, employment forecasts continue to play a prominent part intraining needs assessment. The grip they have on manpower planning in Pakistanis illustrated by the fact that predictions of a shortage of engineers, and ofa need to increase the volume of eagineering training, remain unchallengeddespite increasing unemployment in this professior

215. Planning for training should cease relying on forecasting techniquesand should instead give much greater weight to feedback from different sources:from monitoring and evaluation studies, from labor market surveys undertaken bythe Provincial Directorates of Manpower and Training, and from informal linksbetween training establishments and local employers. Projections of manpowerrequirements have been accorded such authority that signals coming from thesesources have typically been overridden, with the result that the fruits of suchstudies have consistently been wasted. These labor market signals are worthcareful examination.

216. A further weakness in existing planning methods is that training formany occupations is designed on the assumption that there are at most twe levelsof skill: that possessed by shop-floor workers and that possessed bysupervisors. This assumption is built into the rigid distinction between the

23 Assessment of Employers' and Employees' Opinions on Supply and Demandof Vocational Manpower in Pakistan's Industry, World Bank, 1987. A survey of105 industries involving 15,100 workers in 100 trades in the Punjab, Sind andNWFP.

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polytechnic programs intended for the shop-floor workers and TTC programsintended for supervisors. In this idealized scheme, the informally-trainedworker has no place. Either his very existence is overlooked or he is assumedto be an anachronism to be retrained or replaced as soon as possible.

217. In reality the informally trained worker is the mainstay of industryin Pakistan as elsewhere and will be for the foreseeable future. Except in thecase of a few occupations such as electrician and electronics worker, the numberof shop-floor positions that require the services of a TTC-trained worker is asmall fraction of the total employment in a given occupation, and they aretypically found only in large enterprises using relatively sophisticatedtechnology. Provided that they are reasonably proficient, most TTC-trainedworkers, like their polytechnic counterparts, are destined sooner or later forsupervisory positions. It is unrealistic to expect them to be satisfied withthe relatively low-paying, repetitive jobs that make limited use of theirexpertise, which characterize most industry in Pakistan. Such jobs are morelikely to be accepted by the informally trained worker with his lower level offormal education, less privileged social background and lower aspirations.Indeed an attempt to provide formal training for all new entrants to skilledoccupations, if successful, would only help create a class of "skilledunemployed" to parallel that of the "educated unemployed".

218. As a result of weaknesses in manpower analysis, the capacity of theeconomy to absorb formally-trained labor in Pakistan has been greatlyoverestimated. Predictions of the aggregate growth in employment have been fartoo optimistic and the resulting overestimation of training requirements hasbeen reinforced by failure to recognize the contribution of informal skilldevelopment. Thus. much of the current expansion of technical and vocationaltraining may prove to be redundant.

219. Demand for Skilled Workers in Large and Medium-Scale Enterprises.Neither establishment surveys nor ad hoc studies provide much evidence ofserious skill shortages, except in some specialized occupations not normallycovered by institutional training establishments.

220. The most nportant regular surveys are the Annual EstablishmentSurveys undertaken by che Provincial Directorates of Manpower and Training. Theycover establishments registered under the Factories Act or employing 20 or moreworkers, and provide data on employment by sex, sector, and three-digit24occupation; employment by education (degree-holder, diploma-holder, and others),sector and three-digit occupation; vacancies, appointments, separations andnumbers of trainees by sector and three-digit occupation, in each case themanufacturing sector being disaggregated to the two-digit level. There are alsodata on establishments. The surveys shed light on the following issues relevantto training planning: the growth of employment, vacancies in skilled

24 Using the ILO occupational classification scheme in which, forcxample, the single-digit designation might include all medical personnel, thedouble-digit all doctors (or paramedics, etc.), and the triple-digit alldoctors in a particular specialty.

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occupations, and factors cited by establishments as responsible for limitingtheir expansion. Since the resources available for surveys of this nature areiuievitably limited, it might bc better to undertake them, not annually as hasbeen the traditior, but every second or third year, in greater depth. The mostrecent surveys report very low vacancy-employment ratios for all but a handfulof professional and technical occupations, and indicate that very fewestablishments indicated that labor shortages are adversely affecting output.The Annual Establishment Enguiry for the Year 1984-85. Government of the Puniab,for example, provides a breakdown of current vacancies by occupation inaggregate and by sector. Expressing vacancies as a percentage of currentemployment, shortages indicated only in the tollowing occupations: foodpreservers (131), veterinarians (11), biologists and zoologists (10%), workersin religion (71), veterinarian assistants (6%), medical doctors and surgeons(61), teachArs at technical institutes (5%), pharmacist assistants (5%),professional nurses (41), medical technicians (4%), and life sciencestechnicians (41). In no other occupation were vacancies more than 3% of currentemployment.

221. The general impression that significant shortages exist in only afew professional and technical occupations is corroborated by the fact that only569 out of the 3,306 manufacturing establishments covered by the survey reportedobstacles to expansion, and that only 55 of these gave a shortage of technicalpersonnel or skilled labor as a reason.

222. The part of the survey relating to training clearly needs to bedeveloped further if it is to shed light on enterprise-based skill development.The survey indicates that only 123 of nearly 1 million workers were undergoingon-the-job training, a rather unrealistic figure that does not reflect theubiquity of informal on-the-job training. The survey also reports only 62apprentices, although the Directorate of Manpower and Tr4ning says it has 2,049on its rolls.

223. The survey does not attempt to evaluate future labor requirements,but a supplementary establishment study, asking for anticipated additionalemployment in 41 trades and distinguishing between skilled and semiskilledworkers, is approaching completion.

224. Similar results are reported in Sind and NWFP. In the 32nd AnnualEstablishment Enguiry of the Sind Directorate of Manpower and Training for thePeriod July 1984 - June 1985, the vacancy/employment ratio is significant forvery few occupations, most of them professional or technical. Only 277 of the1,786 manufacturing establishments reported obstacles to expansion, and of theseonly 29 cited a shortage of technical personnel or skilled labor as a reason.The survey reports 226 workers being trained on the job and 401 apprentices, andthese figures almost certainly understate enterprise-based skill development.Likewise, the 33rd Round of Annual Establishment Enguiry in North-West FrontierProvince. Coverage Period July 1985 - June 1986 states that, of the 26 (out of58) manufacturing enterprises reporting hindrances to expansion, only 1 citeda shortage of qualified labor as the reason.

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225. Similarly, the recent ad hoc study Labor Market Adjustment toEmigration in PAkistan (Ministry of Labor and Manpower, 1986) found that fewerthan 10X of the enterprises in the sample were working at less than fullcapacity because they lacked skilled workers, and that large scale emigrationto the Middle East and the subsequent failure of skilled workers to return totheir former occupations had little lasting impact on the labor supply evenamong construction firms in the sample.

226. Demgrd for Skilled Workers in Small-Scale Enterprises. There iswidespread agreement that small-scale enterprises are likely to provide the mostnew jobs in Pakistan in the foreseeable future, even in the manufacturingsector. The Report on Emluloyment Issues in Pakistan (World Bank, 1987) statesthat in manufacturing, the employment-output elasticity of formal sectorenterprises (defined as those covered by the 1934 Factories Act or employingmore than 20 workers) was actually negative, -0.20, during the period1976/77-1983/84, while that of smaller enterprises was 0.60 over the sameperiod. Such enterprises are not covered by standard establishiaent surveys, sothere is little systematic information or. their skills shortages or trainingrequirements. But available evidence indicates that they, also, are notsuffering from a significant shortage of skilled labor, their needs being metthrough on-the-job training that takes place as part of normal operations.

227. The most important recent study in this field, Profiles of InformalEmployment in Urban Areas (Ministry of Labor and Manpower, 1984), found thatonly 8% of the 800 small enterprises in the sample (all in the manufacturingsector) reported shortages of skilled labor. Inadequate finance, a lack ofdemand for their output, and difficulties in obtaining raw materials were allsaid to be much more pressing concerns among those enterprises reportingconstraints on expansion.

228. Effect of Overseas Migration. A 1985 study by the Ministry of Laborand Manpower included a survey of 131 domestic establishments, employing 108,000workers (of whom 67,000 were in the 23 skilled occupations targeted by thestudy) in construction, manufacturing, communications and transport, andutilities and public services.

229. The study indicates that 103 of the enterprises were working belowfull capacity, but only 18 stated that manpower shortages were a factor, andonly 9 gave that as the main problem. Lack of finance, lack of an adequatemarket, and energy shortages were all more important. Although constructionfirms have supposedly been particularly badly affected by the migration to theMiddle East and the subsequent failure of returning construction workers to goback to their original trades, only 1 out of the 9 in the sample reported alabor shortage. The survey concludes that emigration of workers had very littleimpact on employment and production in the surveyed establishments, and thatthere is no indication that skill shortages are anticipated in the future.

230. Data on returning migrants is largely impressionistic, but twoimportant conclusions have emerged from recent studies. First, there is ageneral consensus that the outflow of migrants is now matched by an inflow.Second, many of those formerly working in skilled or semiskilled occupatior.s

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have no intention of returning to them, preferring rather to set up in businessor to remain unemployed. Contrary to expectations, migration probably does notexert a significant effect on the supply of skilled workers, one way or theother, and has not created lasting shortages of skilled labor. However, itneeds to be stressed that outflows and return flows should be monitored on aregular basis as part of understanding the dynamics of the labor supply inPakistan.

231. Negligible Unemplovment of Skilled Workers. Household surveys inurban (1984) and rural (1983) areas in the Punjab complement the emergingpicture that the supply and demand for skilled labor in Pakistan is roughly inbalance at the present time. The urban surveys revealed that unemployment orunderemployment was severe among laborers not specifically classified, 23%;service workers not specifically classified, 21%; agricultural workers,presumably migrant, 13%; building caretakers, 10%; primary school teachers, 7%(mostly males); clerical workers other than typists and stenographers, 6%; andsales workers, 5%. Negligible unemployment rates were reported forprofessional, technical or skilled occupaticns. The rural survey containssimilar data for a more restricted set of occupations.

232. Social Demand and Labor Absorption. The pressure of social demandis a second factor (after unreliable manpewer forecasts) that has underminedtraining planning and has reinforced the tendency to overexpand technical andvocational training, particularly in the polytechnics. Exploding enrollmentsin these institutions may reduce educated unemployment in the short run byreducing the labor force participation rate of this age group, but it is likelyto aggravate the problem in the longer run. Much of the demand for polytechnicplaces is attributable to a credentialist competition for a limited number ofattractive employment opportunities in the modern sector. The training willmake it more difficult for unsuccessful competitors to lower their aspirations,and hence more likely that they will choose to remain unemployed rather thanreconcile themselves to accepting employment in relatively unattractive jobs.

233. Training of Engineers and Doctors. The cost of using erroneousmanpower forecasting techniques and ignoring labor market signals is illustratedin the education and training of professional engineers and medical doctors.This education is very costly, yet has expanded in recent years in response topoor forecasting and social demand, rather than to real need. By all accounts,the number of engineers being trained now exceeds the normal demand and theGovernment has been called upon to create additional public service posts or tointroduce regulations artificially increasing employment in the private sector.Nevertheless various official documents continue to insist that there is ashortage of engineers and that the number of training places will have toincrease 25% over the next 10 years if it is to be overcome. Undoubtedly thereare some unfilled posts, but they are so unattractive that they do notconstitute an effective demand: engineers evidently prefer either to remainunemployed or to move into other occupations rather than fill them.

234. A comparab e example is the shortage of doctors in rural areas. TheSixth Plan estimated that there were only about 1,000 doctor posts in ruralareas, as opposed to 6,000 in urban areas, even though rural areas account for

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70X of the population. Although the situation may have improved in recentyears, clearly the rural need is still acute. But the shortage of rural doctorsis not attributable to a deficient volume of training. Quite the contrary. Thecoexistence of unfilled posts and the unemployment of recently-qualified doctorsis a problem of employment conditions. The incentives to work in rural areasare inadequate to overcome the reluctance of newly-trained doctors to take uprural posts. Official policies also hinder the adjustment process. Growinginemployment in professions such as engineering and medicine should be givinga powerful signal to young people that they are likely to have to acceptpositions in rural areas or lower-level posts. However, the signal is beingneutralized by the widely-publicized creation of additional government posts inboth occupations.

235. Another hindrance to the realistic lowering of expectations is thepreservation of differentials in the earnings of more qualified and lessqualified labor. In the long run in most countries these differentials becomecompressed as the supply of qualified labor expands, reducing the economicstakes in the competition for employment. In Pakistan, as in most developingcountries, most professional and technical workers are employed in governmentservice where differentials are primarily determined by notions of status ratherthan by market forces. The failure of the differentials to respond to marketforces provides an incentive for the educated unemaployed to prolong their searchfor high-status jobs and thus constitutes a formidable obstacle to theadjustment of aspirations.

236. In some cases it appears that measures have been taken to stimulatesocial demand solely to fill underused training facilities. Some institutionshave experienced little demand for training places, despite the fact that thetraining is provided free of charge. Rather than acknowledge that this lack ofdemand for training reflects a lack of demand for trained workers, the courseadministrators sometimes succumb to the temptation to offer stipends merely tofill empty places. This practice should be discouraged. Indeed, whereappropriate, user charges should be introduced to mitigate the artifi^ialinflation of social demand and reduce distortions in the allocation of trainingresources.

D. A Revised Agenda for Training

237. Given the rather unpropitious climate for future expansion oftraining, what could be the government's agenda for this subsector?

Apprenticeship Training

238. The apprentice training schemes established under the ApprenticeshipOrdinance of 1962 constitute the most far-reaching direct intervention aimed atenhancing on-the-job training. The coverage at present is very limited, withperhaps 1,500 apprentices completing their training in any one year. The numberis growing in response to sustained efforts by the field cells of the

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apprenticeship wings of the Provincial Directorates of Manpower and Training,but slow progress is the best that can be expected.

239. For many enterprises the disadvantages of participating in thescheme outweigh the advantages. The superiority of ATC training over on-the-job training is undisputed. The problem is that many enterprises either areunable to exploit this superiority or feel that the benefit is outweighed by thedisruption to production caused by the day-release or block-release of theirapprentices and the effect increased training may have on career aspirationsand salary levels.

240. There are proposals to increase the impact of the Ordinance byextending its application to all enterprises employing 20 or more workers,instead of the present 50. It is doubtful, however, that such a measure wouldhave much effect. In the past, many firms have avoided the scheme by nominallydividing themselves into separate units employing at most 49 workers, or bysubcontracting work to other small enterprises. If the threshold were lowered,they might reorganize themselves into still smaller units to avoid compliance.Many other enterprises have simply ignored the Ordinance knowing that theProvincial Apprentice Services lack the resources for prompt enforcement. Thisproblem would remain unchanged.

241. Much more promising is a continuance of the Dresent policy ofpatiently persuading employers that participation is in their interest,especially if it is accompanied by technical assistance. The PC-I document ofthe National Vocational Training rroject, Phase II, includes some constructiveproposals in this respect. It states that "the main technique to achieve [thepromotion of apprenticeship] would be to strengthen the ProvincialApprenticeship Services to become In-Plant Training Development Services and toshift the focus of activity foom the legalistic enforcement of theApprenticeship Ordinance to providing a range of services to the enterprise."They could among other things, provide short workshops and seminars on trainingfor employers; help firms assess their training needs, develop trainingpolicies, plans and detailed training programs for semiskilled workers, andupgrade training for skilled workers and apprentices; and operate short coursesfor supervisors and instructors, monitoring and evaluating the results.

242. Still it would be unrealistic to expect rapid progress in this area.Initially apprenticeship training is likely to be confined mainly to largeenterprises for which the advantages are more obvious and which can besttolerate the disruption caused by day or block releases. Unfortunately few newjobs are being generated by large enterprises at present.

243. In time the incentive of technical assistance may get more mediumand small firms to participate but international experience shows that extensionservices of this kind must be designed with great care if they are to achieve

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significant coverage and be cost-effective.25 The Jordanian experience (annex4), suggests that three factors are important in the design of apprenticeshipsystems: (a) providing adequate resources for liaison with firms (Jordan hasfar more active staff in this area than Pakistan); (b) minimizing thedisruptiveness to the enterprise of both day-release and block-release (theJordanian system is much less disruptive); and (c) keeping apprentices' wageslow enough to offset the trainees' inexperience (initial apprentice wages inJordan are only one-third those of a newly qualified worker, whereas in Pakistanthey are one-half). In Pakistan, unlike Jordan, there is a large gap betweenwages and productivity in the first year, which produces a financial loss forthe enterprise.

244. Other Ty2es of In-Service Training. Lack of documentation precludesany detailed discussion of the contribution, actual or potential, of other typesof in-service training to skill development. The first priority is to establisha comprehensive database on existing training, by type of skill, in the form ofshort or part-time courses in both public and private establishments. Thesecond priority is to undertake market research on the likely demand forspecific courses and the potential for cost recovery.

245. Upgrading of accounting and other basic management skills deservesspecial attention. In the modern sector, this type of skill development isprovided according to demand by both private and public institutes. The factthat only a few enterprises keep formal accounts suggests that there may be aneed for a positive initiative. The scope for such an initiative is limited toenterprises with a literate manager or employee, a restriction that againunderlines the importance of general education.

E. Pre-Service Occupational Training

246. Training is provided in Pakistan by many kinds of institution andauthorities, some of them models of excellence. The four main priorities forreform of pre-service occupational training should be (a) a review of plans forexpansion, (b) the further development of establishments that are operating

25 The Vocational Training Corporation in Jordan, described by D.Herschbach, B. Reinhart, R.L. Darcy and J.A. Sanguinetty (Linking Training andEmployment: A Case Study of Training Systems in Jordan, Washington, D.C.,USAID, 1985) is widely regarded as a successful intervention. TheEntrepreneurship Development Programs in India are also said to be effective(V.G. Patel, "Integrated Entrepreneurship Development Programmes: The IndianExperience," in R.E. Nelson (editor), Entrepreneurship and Self-EmploymentTraining, Asian Development Bank, Manila, 1986). However, reports ofdisappointing outcomes are much more common, a typical example being Marsden'saccount of the Department of Industrial Promotion in Thailand (K. Marsden,Services for Small Firms: the Roles of Government Programs and MarketNetworks in Thailand, International Labor Review 123 (2), 1984).

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satisfactorily, (c) a consolidatior. of marginal establishments, and (d) theencouragement of private training establishments.

247. Review of Plans for Expansion. Aside from unrealistic projectionsof 'manpower requirements," there is little evidence of any need for theexpansion of institution-based occupational training. It is urgent thatexpansionary policy be reconsidered. Civen constraints on public expenditureJir general. and on human resources development in particular. Pakistan cannotafford to risk wasting resources on nonessential institutions.

248. The recurrent cost per trainee-year in a TTC is more than 10 timesthat of a pupil-year in a primary school, which means that a decision toestablish a 200-seat TTC is eqvivalent to a decision not to establish five400-seat primary schools. No new public training project should be initiatedwithout a prior evaluation of the likely demand for its graduates based on aknowledge of employment trends in the institution's catchment area and realisticassumptions about relative worth to employers of formally- andinformally-trained workers.

249. Existing evidence is not encouraging. A recent NWFP tracer studyof TTC pass-outs determined that only about one-third weize employed intraining-related occupations. Nearly one-half were openly unemployed.Mini-tracer studies undertaken by the TTCs in Lahore, Peshawar, Multan andKarachi yielded less depressing findings, but the significant unemployment rateof the pass-outs suggests that the present volume of training is more thanadequate. These centers provide high-quality training, and it is reasonable toassume that the external efficiency of other training institutions is nogreater.

250. Continued expansion of training may be justified in certainlocations and selected occupations, but the burden of proof must lie with thosewho advocate it, and there can be no substitute for periodic and detailed labormarket analysis. Some agencies still do not undertake serious evaluation of theexternal efficiency of their occupational training programs. They should makethis their first priority.

251. Further Development of Healthy Institutions. A key factor indetermining long-term viability is the responsiveness of the institution tochanges in its environment, in particular to changes in the markets for itsgraduates. In principle even a highly-centralized delivery system could achievethe necessary flexibility, but this is unusual internationally and does notappear to be the case in Pakistan. Therefore the major training establishments,some of which are excellent, should be encouraged to develop their ownevaluation and monitoring procedures and be given autonomy to respond to suchfeedback. Such institutions might be managed by governing bodies on which localemployers had significant representation. This would have the added advantageof providing links with local employers that most such institutions nowconspicuously lack.

252. In particular they should be given more freedom to adjust coursecontent to suit local requirements, to replace courses for which there is little

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market demand, to offer short and part-time courses as well as long ones, tovary course lengths to suit actual training requirements rather than thelockstep of the academic year, and to employ part-time instructors for specialskills. Some progress is already being made in these respects. The TTC inPeshawar, for example, recognizing the limited absorptive capacity of localmodern industry, emphasizes the use of locally-made equipment that graduates arelikely to find in small enterprises. Sometimes adaptation is prevented byregulations. For example, the employment of part-time TTC instructors isprohibited, which deprives the TTCs of the option of drawing on the expertiseof specialists borrowed from industry.

253. Curriculum change implies development expenditures on new equipment,but typically this is small compared with the wage-cost of staff in the long runand should not be withheld. In general, the sponsoring authority should beprepared to run a smaller establishment with an adequate renewal budget ratherthan a larger establishment with an inadequate budget or none. And if budgetin-procedures do not permit this type of trade off, they should be changed.

254. Not least, the managers of training establishments should be giventhe freedom to explore such possibilities for cost recovery as charging traineesor their employers fees, hiring out underutilized buildings and equipment, andproviding consultancy services, with a view to improving their integration withlocal industry and acquiring resources that can be used to improve the qualityof facilities and instruction.

255. Consolidation of Marginal Establishments. For many occupations inPakistan there is a bewildering variety of training options. Sometimes thisvariety reflects differences in the environment. For example, institutions thatare cost-effective in urban areas may not be in rural areas, and vice versa.It may also reflect specialization in training clientele - - with different typesof institutions; for example; catering to trainees with different levels ofgeneral education.

256. But in some cases there is no apparent reason for different sourcesof training apart from the historical accident that several training authoritieshappen to have developed similar functions. This overlap represents a waste ofresources that could be mitigated by consolidation. Indeed, some agenciesattribute low admissions in their training programs to other trainingestablishments attracting trainees with stipends. The scope for consolidationand rationalization cannot be determined without a comprehensive overview of theroles of the different training authorities in Pakistan, in terms of occupationsand clienteles served, and numbers trained. Since no such documentation exists,the National Training Bureau should accept responsibility for such a study (andperiodical updates), and should try to coordinate whatever rationalization ofservices seems desirable.

257. The practice of providing stipends for those attending publictraining establishments should be examined particularly closely. The factthat the training is heavily subsidized already makes demand for traininggreater than that justified. Awarding stipends increases this tendency.Sometimes programs outlast their usefulness, the trainees who would

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otherwise suffer unpaid unemployment being attracted by the stipend and notby the prospect of entering that particular occupation.

258. Encouraging Private Training Establishments. It is nowacknowledged in Pakistan that the private sector can play a useful role inmobilizing resources for training. To the extent that private establishmentscan provide affordable training programs in place of public programs, publicauthorities can divert their own resources to other objectives. Privatetraining establishments are often more flexible than public ones in their courseofferings and use of resources and are more sensitive to shifts in demand.Public authorities can enhance the contribution of registered privateestablishments by gathering information from them about course offerings,enrollments, graduates and placements, and disseminating it to the public. Inprinciple this information would also provide a basis for any necessaryregulatory measures, but in practice regulation can be obstructive and the bestguarantee of performance is generally a well-informed potential clientele. TheDirectory of Training Establishments published by the Sind Board of TechnicalEducation is a useful step in this direction.

259. There seems to be some policy ambiguity, especially aboutencouraging private commercial education. It is a field which in many countriesis served well by the flexibility of the private sector and the relatively lowinvestment costs that encourage competition and increase performance. The SixthPlan states unequivocally that the public provision of commercial educationshould be supplementary only -- for example, in suburban or rural areas wherethe market is too small to support a private operation. Nevertheless trainingin the public sector in urban areas continues to expand. The desirability ofthis expansion. and the implications for its recurrent expenditures, should bere-examined,

F. Polvtechnic Education

260. The problems facing the polytechnic institutions and relatedpost-secondary establishments for technical education are similar in natureto those facing vocational training establishments but are generally more acute.Rapid expansion is taking place without adequate research into the employmentprospects of the graduates. Tracer studies are seldom undertaken and somepolytechnics have no link with their graduates' potential employers. The NWFPBoard of Technical Education is currently undertaking a placement study ofgraduates from the polytechnics, vocational institutes and commercialinstitutes. Such developments are greatly to be welcomed.

261. Expansion in the polytechnics seems to have been based primarily onstrong social demand -- rather than on analysis of the labor market. Forexample, in Sind in 1984 there were 15,000 applications for 1,600 polytechnicplaces. If social demand were based on a public perception of good employmentprospects in occupations specifically served by polytechnic training, theinstitutions' failure to do market research might not matter. But this doesn'tseem to be the case. Indeed, employment in the public sector and larger privateenterprises -- the main employers of higher-level technicians -- is growing

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relatively slowly or not at all, so social demand probably reflects anescalation of credentialist competition among growing numbers of school leaversfor a decreasing number of higher-level jobs. The current expansion of thepolytechnics, if unchecked, could produce a class of highly-educated unemployedto match the present class of unemployed matriculates.

262. It is also of concern that polytechnics are expanding despiteshortages of the resources necessary to maintain standards. In Sind, forexample, about half of the polytechnic instructor posts are currently unfilled.Conditions of service are poor, so it is very difficult to recruit engineeringgraduates. Most of those who accept posts do not stay long or are second-rate.Not surprisingly, the shortage of instructors is said to be most acute for thosecourses most in demand. Yet despite these problems, Sind is increasing thenumber of polytechnics from 13 to 20.

263. There is an urgent need to restrain expansion of the sector untiladeguate market research has been undertaken; to strengthen the institutionsthat are functioning satisfactorily, giving them autonomy to respond to thechanging neels of the local economy, diversify their course offerings, andexplore possibilities for cost recovery; to rationalize training provisionwhere necessary; and to encourage the growth of private training provision.

264. The expansion and "upgrading" of the B.Tech. programs into broadengineering degrees particularly deserves careful examination. At present, themain priority should not be to increase enrollments in polytechnic, college orengineering courses, but to raise standards, even at the engineeringuniversities.

265. Strengthening Healthy Polytechnics. The same comments apply to thestrengthening of well-established polytechnic institutes as to their TTCcounterparts. Most obviously, they should be encouraged to become moreentrepreneurial and more responsive to the needs of their communities. The casefor giving some of the authority for managing them to governing bodies witheffective employer representation appears to be strong. It would increase theirflexibility and automatically provide the links with potential employers thatare at present underdeveloped or absent. Evening extension courses, like thoseoffered by the NWFP government polytechnics, and other programs aimed atbroadening their clientele should be encouraged, if costs can be contained.

266. Opportunities for cost recovery should be exploited as stressed inthe Seventh Plan. The NWFP polytechnic evening extension courses are a modestexample of cost recovery. Fees charged are high enough to pay the instructorsbut not other expenses.

267. Rationalization. Some rationalization seems necessary to resolvethe polytechnics' difficulty in recruiting instructors. The persistent shortageof instructors, despite increasing numbers of unemployed engineers, suggeststhat pay scales are inadequate. The cost of increasing pay and filling vacantposts will be substantial and by itself is likely to force some consolidationof programs. In this sector it is better to have lower enrollments and

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high-quality instruction than greater enrollments with resources stretchedthinly.

G. Secondary Vocational Education

268. The main benefits of vocational secondary education, according to itsadvocates, are that it equips school-leavers who would otherwise be unemployedwith employable skills, and that it can encourage young people toenter technical or vocational occupations by inculcating a respect for thedignity of work. Numerous case studies disprove these myths.

269. International experience has shown repeatedly that introducing vocationalcourses into secondary schools does not yield the expected benefits 26 . There isno reason to believe that vocational education will have any greater success inPakistan than elsewhere. The current oroposals to extend such courses shouldbe shelved until their rationale has been rigorously examined.

270. The problem of the educated unemployed is attributable in Pakistan, aselsewhere, to two factors: the number of educated young people has grown fasterthan the number of job openings considered appropriate by them, and those whoare initially unsuccessful in finding jobs prefer to remain unemployed andcontinue their job search rather than accept employment which offers themincome, status and career development inconsistent with their aspirations.

271. The employable-skills argument might have some validity if employerswere reporting a general shortage of technically or vocationally trainedapplicants for entry-level jobs. But even when suitable vacancies occur, thereis no firm evidence that employers prefer secondary-school leavers with avocational background to those with nona. On the contrary, the findings of therecent World Bank Survey (Assessmer.t of Employers' and Employees' Opinions onSupply and Demand of Vocational Manpower in Pakistan's Industry, 1987) indicatethat employers pay little or no attention to such training when hiring. All 35employers who revealed preferences about hiring said that they preferred workerswith on-the-job training to those with school-based training. Only 4 out of the885 employees interviewed in the survey had come from technical high schools,and none had come from agrotechnical schools. The study concludes that "theproposal for further vocationalization of secondary level of formal educationshould be considered carefully.... It is glaringly clear that the products ofthe present formal secondary level vocational education (technical schools,agro-technical schools, comprehensive high schools) throughout the country do

26 For a review of the evidence, including references to numerouscase-studies, see George Psacharopoulos, "To Vocationalize or Not toVocationalize? That is the Curriculum Question," International Review ofEducation 33 (1987). For a critique of the Indian experience, see M.R. Shah,V. Prakasha and K. Nischol, "Towards Exploring Some Aspects of theRelationship between Education and Creation of Employment Opportunities,"Gujarat Research Society, New Delhi, 1986.

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not find any place in the industry as skilled or even semi-skilled workers(which was the main objective for introducing such streams)."

272. In other countries, studies indicate that the case against theemployable-skills argument is stronger still. Many employers actually preferthe generally educated graduate to the technically-educated graduate if he hasa stronger grounding in such basic skills as the national language, andnumeracy, and is therefore inherently more trainable.27

273. The idea that vocational education may promote self-employment oremployment in the informal sector is equally untenable. Most such employmentis not technical in nature and informal on-the-icb training, which is betterintegrated with employment and the development of complementary commercialskills, is normally a more suitable preparation. There are examples like thestudent who takes an electrical course and finds a niche in small-scale industryor sets up on his own account. But tracer studies in most countries show thatthe proportion of graduates who find training-related employment is so low thatthis method of skill development cannot be considered cost-effective. The WorldBank study suggests that the same is likely to be the case in Pakistan.However, apparently no systematic tracer studies of vocational secondary schoolgraduates have been undertaken in Pakistan -- the present vocationalizationpolicy is proceeding in a vacuum.

274. Another argument for vocational education is that it can inspire agreater respect for skilled occupations. Again, there is no evidence to supportthis view. In most countries one's family and peer group overwhelminglydetermine one's values and aspirations and the school has negligible influence.To the extent that vocational guidance means disseminating information about thestructure of the labor force, the nature of particular occupations, andrealistic prospects for employment opportunities, it may be constructive inencouraging a student who is already technically inclined and helping him avoidthe frustration of selecting a saturated occupation. Efforts in this regardshould be encouraged. But vocational education as such is unlikely to changehis aspirations, particularly if his ambition is to become a white collarworker.

275. Not only are the supposed benefits dubious, but there are twoincontestable costs. First, vocational education that provides significantpractical training is so expensive that it is unusual to find well-equipped

27 For examples of such studies see for Japan, F.C. Hayes, A. Andersonand N. Fonda, "Competence and Competit'.on: Training and Education in theFederal Republic of Germany, the United States and Japan," National EconomicDevelopment Office, London, 1984; for Sovth Korea, K.W. Lee, "Human ResourcesPlanning in the Republic of Korea: Improving Technical Education andVocational Planning," World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 554, 1983; forPanama, A. Cuervo, "Employer-Based Training in Panama, U.S.A.I.D., Washington,1985; and for Honduras, T. Kelly, D. Evans, V. Faulds and J. Callejas,"Addressing Employment Needs: A Study of the Training System in Honduras,"U.S.A.I.D., 1985.

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workshops and qualified instructors in schools in developing countries. It isdifficult to believe that an expansion of secondary school vocational coursesin Pakistan would not be frustrated by a shortage of instructors, given that thepolytechnics, which can pay more, are already suffering from such a shortage.

276. Second, there is the cost in student time. The secondary schoolcurriculum in Pakistan is already crowded. A vocational element can beintroduced only at the expense of a sacrifice elsewhere. It is difficult toreconcile a vocationalization policy with the support expressed in the SixthPlan for improving the quality of basic education in general and a 'specialemphasis on science and mathematics" teaching in particular -- especially whenhalf of the middle schools currently lack science rooms and most rural highschools lack science laboratories.

277. There is no evidence to support the view that graduates oftechnical high schools proceeding to polytechnic institutions have anyadvantage over those who have matriculated with science, and the proposalto confine polytechnic admission to those with vocational secondaryeducation is to be deplored. Its intended objective appears to be toprovide artificial support for an unpopular curriculum.

H. The Key Role of General Education

278. In Pakistan as elsewhere what most determines whether workers willbe trainable is the quality of their general education. Literacy in particular,is crucial for many occupations. The individual who can understand technicaldrawings, read manuals, use measuring instruments and monitor controls is muchmore likely to develop advanced skills than his illiterate counterpart. Thehigher cognitive ability that comes with further education is critical forunderstanding instructions and processes, planning and giving directions, andaccounting, to name a few of the skillsimportant to entrepreneurial activity.

279. There are three additional reasons for emphasizing general educationas the basis for skill development. First, it is the only intervention that hasa large-scale impact on the quality of informal skill development, for which thescope of direct intervention is extremely limited. A recent study28 providesevidence that even the owners of small-scale enterprises in the informal sectorvalue literacy. In response to the question "Do you think that literacy of theworkers is important for the work to be done?" 57% responded in the affirmative.

280. Second, most subprofessional occupations require very littletraining. Skilled craft occupations account for only a fraction ofthe labor force in Pakistan, as elsewhere. The training period for othersubprofessional occupations is measured in months or even weeks, not

28 The Pakistan/Netherlands Study: Profiles of Informal Employment inUrban Areas, Ministry of Labor and Manpower, 1984.

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years. So training contributes very little to skill developmentcompared with general education.

281. TkLird, general education is an inexpensive intervention. Therecurrent cost of a pupil-year in primary education is typically less than one-tenth the cost of a trainee-year in a TTC.

I. Training and Employment of Women

282. The principal providers of occupational training for women areGovernment Vocational Institutes for Girls (GVIGs). They generally offerone-year certificate or two-year diploma courses in such traditional activitiesas sewing, knitting, dress-making, leather goods, and handicrafts. Recently theprograms have been diversified to include courses such as typing andhairdressing.

283. Technical education is provided in five women's polytechnics. Theytypically offer diploma courses lasting three years in design and dress-making,commerce, and radio, TV and electronics.

284. With the establishment of a Technical Training Center for Women(TTCW) in Karachi and the imminent commissioning of another in Lahore,Provincial Directorates of Manpower and Training are now involved in women'straining. Other TTCWs are expected to be established at Rawalpindi, Multan,Hyderabad, Peshawar and Quetta under Phase . of the IDA-assisted NationalVocational Training Project. In addition there are a multitude of small-scaletraining programs for women which fall into three categories: (a) on-the-jobtraining by large employers; (b) courses sponsored by other government,semigovernment or charitable NGOs; and (c) courses run by commercial institutes.

Prospects for Growth in the Employment of Women

285. Sources of Growth. Growth in the employment of women is going tocome from two interconnected sources. One is the growth of totalemployment in those occupations in which women are represented. The otheris displacement of male by female workers, which may occur even ifoverall employment in the occupation is static.

286. To assess sources of growth of women's employment (and by analogywhere future training investments should be made), it is necessary to examine:(a) the existing structure of male and female employment to see where majorfemale employment exists; (b) the likely rates of growth in those occupations;and (c) the scope for an increase in women's share.

287. The Existing Structure of Female Emplovment. Table 4.1 shows the1981 census estimates of numbers of women employed in major occupational groups.Table 4.2 gives the figures for those occupations employing, or potentiallyemploying significant numlers of women. Various studies have presented updatedestimates, but confidence cannot be attached to them because of the methodology

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used. In any case the issue is not the exact numbers but their relativemagnitudes and implications for growth.

Table 4.1: E=ployment in Pakistan by Occupation and Sex. 1981(One-digit occupational group. thousands)

Hale Female %FemaleProfessionals, technicians 733 132 15Administrators, managers 292 6 2Clerical, related workers 675 24 3Sales workers 1,794 34 2Service workers 867 66 7Agricultural workers 11,041 300 3Production workers 5,451 205 4Unclassified 943 58 6

TOTAL 21,796 830 4

Source: Census of Population, 1981.

Table 4.2: Emnloyment in Pakistan. Selected Occupations. 1981(Two-digit occupations. thousands)

Male Female %Female

Architects, engineers, related 87 5 5Health workers 130 24 16Teachers 201 90 31Accountants 41 2 5Spinners, weavers, knitters 532 63 11Tailors, dressmakers 229 34 13Construction workers 833 21 3

Source: Census of Population, 1981.

288. Professional and Technical Workers. At the level of professionaland technical workers, the teaching and health occupations offer substantialscope for additional female employment. The Government needs to recruit manymore female teachers (para. 79), the limitations being only availability ofqualified candidates and the financing for salaries.

289. The health occupations also offer significant scope for additional femaleemployment. The Sixth Plan acknowledges the need to train and employ dais(midwives) for the 30,000 villages lacking them. lt also states that theGovernment will provide more nurse's training, to meet the substantialunsatisfied demand. The pressure of demographic increase and the commitment toraise standards in health care can be counted on to maintain the demand fordais, nurses and other health care workers, especially lady health visitors.

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Again, constraints are availability of qualified applicants and the Government'sability to finance extra staff positions.

290. Much less important, but still significant is the employment of women asarchitects, engineers and related workers - a category in which women held 5,000out of 92,000 jobs in 1981. Most women can be expected to be emrloyed at thetechnician level as draughtsmen.

291. Clerical and Related Workers. Clerical work offers the greatestopportunity for additional female employment, especially in government service.The Sixth Plan expressed a commitment to increase the proportion of women ingovernment employ from 3% to between lOX and 15% during the Plan period. Evenif women are recruited at high-level as well as lower-level posts, it is onlyrealistic to e-.pect that the most additional female employment will be clerical.In 1981 only 9,000 out of 51,000 clerical supervisors were women, 2,000 out of31,000 stenographers and typists, 1,000 out of 36,000 bookkeepers, and 1,000 outof 20,000 telecommunication operators -- and these occupations account for lessthan 20% of clerical and related occupations. It is not known whether Plantargets are being achieved, but obviously the potential for additional femaleemployment remains substantial.

292. In occupations that bring the sexes together, additional employment willto some extent be constrained by social and cultural norms. Klein andNestvogel29 report that "in Karachi many women are already working as secretariesor in data processing ... according to general opinion in Lahore, it is only amatter of time before more women enter clerical occupations." Nevertheless, therate at which women are absorbed into clerical occupations is likely to dependon the willingness of employers to smooth the way by arranging for women to workin groups rather thar as scattered individuals. In view of governmentcommitment to women's employment,the public sector should set an example in thisrespect.

293. Sales. Service and Agricultural Workers. Although theseoccupational groups employed half of female workers at the time of the 1981census, they do not demand significant training. Most of the female sales!-7orkers are engaged in retail trade on their own account, and most of theservice workers are maids or cleaners. The employment of women in agricultureis undoubtedly far greater than the 300,000 recorded, as most women working asfanily helpers -- perhaps 12 million -- are overlooked in the census.3 0 However,apart from a few initiatives in sericulture, horticulture and poultry-raising,agriculture offers little potential for additional trained female employment.With increasing mechanization and rising productivity, employment in agriculture

29 Klein, Heinz, and Renate Nestvogel, Women in Pakistan: GeneralConditions. ADproaches and Proiect Proposals for the DeveloRment andVocational Oualification of Women in the Province of Punjab, Eschborn: GTZ,1986.

30 ReRort on Employment Issues in Pakistan, World Bank, 1987.

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has been gradually falling and there is no reason to expect this trend toreverse.

294. Production and Related Workers. About half of the women in production areemployed in textiles and garment-making and a further 21,000 in the constructiontrades. About 8,000 workers vre employed as transport equipment operators andthe same number in ceramics and glass production. About 43,000 are classifiedas laborers. The remaining production occupations employ negligible numbers.

295. Unrecorded Female Economic Activity. Many women engage in economicactivities that escape the statistical net, including farmworkers and the manywomen who apply themselves to such traditional part-time occupations ascarpet-weaving, tailoring, dressmaking, simple food-processing and handicrafts.Sometimes the objective is income generation but often it is income-saving.Typically these activities are located in the home, although the increasingnumber of 'industrial centers" sponsored by various agencies offers analternative in some places.

296. Unsurprisingly, since production is scattered into so many small units,there are no estimates of output or equivalent full-time employment. Clearlyoutput expanded greatly in the mid-1970s, as the rise in the price of oil andthe accompanying rise in Iran's standard of living allowed Pakistan to capturepart of Iran's share of the carpet market. This is reflected in the meteoricrise in carpet exports, in great measure promoted by the Small IndustriesDevelopment Corporation, which at one point was managing 75 carpet-makingtraining ce-ters. But with a belated competitive reaction from India, anddeclining living standards in Iran, this growth spurt has come to a halt.Existing capacity appears to be adequate to meet the demand. Indeed theemployment of very young girls at nominal wages in carpet-making suggests thatproduction should be cut back.

297. In the other lines there is growing evidence that the scope for additionalemployment is now extremely limited. Klein and Nestvogel state that in thevillages the market demand for the product of these activities is minimal andtheir function is self-sufficiency.

Future Training Priorities

298. In short, teaching, health, and clerical work are the only significantpotential sources of additional female employment that require training. It maybe necessary to improve training facilities to realize that potential, but acritical precondition is adaptation of working arrangements to minimize theobstacles presented by social, cultural and religious norms.

299. For teaching and health work, the chief problem will be attracting womenin the first place. Klein and Nestvogel observe that "teaching and educationenjoy considerable prestige amongst the population and are particularly popularamongst middle class women," but they are discouraged by the difficultiespresented by social and cultural norms, and by the low pay. With nursing, afurther impediment is nurses' relatively low social status, given their longtraining. A further problem is the small number of qualified applicants.

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300. In many countries clerical workers are trained mainly byprivate coomercial institutes, whose flexibility permits them to processtrainees in a continuous flow, rather than in batches, and gives then acomparative advantage over public institutes. Possibly private institutes inPakistan could also do this.

Implications for Women's Training

301. Most of the existing public training facilities for women can be expectedto have a negligible impact on vomen's employment. Apart from the specializedtraining facilities for teachers and health workers, the only programs likelyto have a significant impact are those for clerical occupations offered by theEstablishment Division's Secretarial Training Center for Women, Islamabad, thepolytechnics and the new Technical Training Center for Women in Lahcre. Theseprograms should be successful. Most of the 100 women trained annually at theIslamabad Center are snapped up before they finish and do not bother to take thefinal examination. But it is also true that these courses are simplysubstitutes for training facilities that would otherwise be provided by theprivate sector, and thus are contrary to government policy to encourage privatecommercial training centers.

302. Although limited in their overall impact, some courses may enable womento increase their penetration of certain specialized occupations. The case formounting such courses must depend, however, on careful market analysis first andon a guarantee that feedback from potential employers will be solicited on anongoing basis.

303. The result of training not based on market analysis and feedback can beseen at the Government Polytechnic for Women in Lahore. It is unclear wherefuture graduates of the radio, television and electronics program there willfind employment, now that the Pakistan Television Corporation, which hasrecruited all the graduates to date, has filled all of its positions. Slimemployment prospects may be one of the factors behind the low utilization ratefor this facility: on average, only about 7 of the 44 places have been filled.

304. Similarly, the wisdom of providing polytechnic courses f-or womenin draughtsmanship must be questioned. Presumably the impulse for establishingsuch courses comes from the fact that many women have been successful insecuring draughtsman positions -- most of the 5,000 women reported by the 1981census as being employed in the architects, engineers and related group areprobably in this occupation. But the future may be very different. The marketis now extremely limited, with unemployment among draughtsmen in the Punjabrunning at about 8X.

305. In any expansion of women's training, the burden of proof should be onthe training provider to demonstrate a clear need for the training --particularly for the most expensive polytechnic courses. Existing evidence isdiscouraging. For example, Klein and Nestvogel state that at the LahorePolytechnic for women, most of those in design and dress-making work only in thehome or become instructors, and half of those in commerce proceed to further

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studies. They found that at the Government Vocational Teachers Training Collegeonly half of the graduates are recruited as instructors.

306. Expansion of women's training, like that of men's training,should be such more closely geared to the needs of the labor market and less tosocial demand, which Is hard to resist. Cost recovery should be introduced andthe private sector should be encouraged to meet demand.

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Linkina Training To The Labor Market: An Agenda For Reform

kaeds- ased Training

307. In the long run, no government can afford to absorb the surplusoutput of vocational/technical/professional engineering programs by creatingpublic sector jobs alone. Education/training programs cannot be a proxy forgenerating employment, particularly in technical fields, where the investmentstakes *re high and workers' job aspirations are still higher. Inducting moreand more people into the training/technical education pipeline withoutsufficient regard to future employment opportunities may buy some time, but mayalso in the not-too-distant future produce a cadre of "technically trainedunemployed". Efforts to reconcile the pressures of social demand with starkeconomic realities are inescapable if the education and training system is topreserve its credibility. In short, most of the VTTE expansion programsincluded in the Seventh Plan need careful reappraisal by the Government. Exceptfor training projects already in hand, new investments in institutional trainingwould best be deferred until a clear need is established through intensivemarket surveys. The bulk of Seventh Plan training resources should be directedat improving training quality and planned support to noninstitutional trainingprograms.

Needs-based 'raining

308. Decentralize the management of training institutions by establishinglocal management committees with strong employer representation (instead ofadvisory committees). These committees would be empowered to:

a. forge mutually beneficial links with industry,

b. diversify the institutional inputs and outputs (curricula,instructors, consumables) according to market signals,

c. vary the duration and structure of course offerings,

d. phase out obsolete/unproductive training programs and introduce newones,

e. discontinue trainee stipends designed solely to fill up vacanttraining seats,

f. expand or contract the quantity and improve the quality of traineeinput,

g. carry out a continuous occupation-specific assessment of markettrends,

h. monitor and promote the employability of graduates with a full-timeplacement and liaison staff, and

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i. charge fees for special training programs and other customerservices.

309. The National/Provincial Training Boards should monitor the unitcosts of training and explore ways to cut and recover costs, where feasible.

Vocational Education in the Secondary Schools

310. Existing vocational education in secoadary schools (grades 6-10),intended to serve either employment/self-employment objectives or as a preferredoasis for adaission to training centers and polytechnics, should be discontinuedand its proposed expansion under the Seventh Plan dropped. Vocational educationat the secondary level would be best used to prov.de students with a knowledgeof tools and machines and some guidance to the world of work.

Employment-Related Vocational Training

311. In employment-related vocational training, the government has two broadroles; first, as catalyst activating and supporting non-institutional,enterprise-based training and second, as provider of an adequate base ofinstitutional training strictly responding to market conditions. With 37training institutions completed or consolidated under the first IDA Credit,another 14 under completion through Government's own resources, and theprojected establishment of as many as 36 new institutions under the second IDACredit during the Seventh Plan period, the foundations for a strong network oftraining institutions has been laid under the aegis of the Ministry of Labor andManpower. The existing instituti~.nal training base is much wider, if thetraining institutions of other mir.istries (particularly Education, Industriesand Culture) are also considered. As such, the Government has fully performedits direct intervention role. The government has, however, failed to achievea satisfactory catalytic role in enterprise-bdsed training. In consultationwith training establishments, employers and workers' groups, the Governmentshould formulate a national training policy to stipulate:

a. the acceptable balance between such options as fully institutionaltraining, apprenticeship training and sandwich training, with anenlarged role for non-institutional training;

b. a re-orientation nf apprenticeship training co de-emphasizelegislative coercion and encourage voluntary participation ofemployers through persuasion, education and technical assistance.(see the case study of comparative apprenticeship experiences ofJordan and Pakistan in annex 4);

c. a belated but well-merited recognition of the informal (traditional)sector training effort backed by necessary support, particularly inproviding solid general education and supplementary training forworkers through short evening courses in government trainingcenters;

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d. the need for more enterprise-based skill upgrading and retrainingof einployed workers, with support from training institutions, wherenecessary;

e. the need for increased coordination and rationalization of trainingnow provided by many different organizations and agencies; and

f. introduction of a rural apprenticeship training program by tappingthe unused potential of public/private sector organizations locatedin rural areas (based on a study provided under IDA's VocationalTraining II Project).

Encouragement of Private-Sector Efforts

312. Although there is much official criticism of private traininginstitutions because of their profit motives, these institutions have found anincreasing market among discerning customers, who are willing to pay for theservices received. The essential strength of the private training programs liesin their flexibility a i responsiveness to the needs of the job market. Theirinvestment of si;nific it resources in job placement of their graduates, addsto their appeal. In f t, private sector institutions, located mostly in urbanareas, substantially hance public sector programs and deserve governmentencouragement. In particular, Government sponsorship of loan schemes frotn thenationalized banks for private institutions together with selective cJst-sharingmechanisms between public and private-sector organizations, can help pave theway for cost-effective private-sector initiatives to expand training to meetidentified market demand.

Polytechnic Education

313. Polytechnic education is already overenrolled, according toavailable indicators. To check growth in the number of unemployed graduates,the Government may wish to:

a. review the second shift programs in polytechnics and phase out manyof them;

b. restrict the establishment of new polytechnics;

c. concentrate on parameters of quality (new curricula, facultyretention and development, rationalization of course offerings),

d. emphatically check the tendencies of B-Tech courses to assumeengineering credentials and safeguard their specializedtechnological charter, and

e. forge organized links between polytechnics and industry and improvetheir job placement/liaison services.

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Commerce Education

314. The government should urgently review its sub-degree trainingprograms in Comerce Education. These programs are not oriented to the jobmarket and essentially serve as a stepping stone to higher degree programs.Instead of providing general-purpose C.Com and D.Com (Certificate and Diplomain Coomerce) courses, training programs should produce typists, stenographers,accountants, bookkeepers, salesmen, computer assistants and insurance agents.Most comerce training programs should be shifted to the private sector, as isdone in many other countries; and the wasteful policy of setting up specializedcoDmercial institutions should be discontinued. The existingpolytechnics/ganeral colleges can easily accommodate specialized courses withfew additional resources.

Training and Employment Women

315. Traditional stitchcraft, for which training programs abound inPakistaTL, has tended to marginalize women's employability and should be de-emphasized. It is important that the prevailing discrimination against femaleemployment should be deliberately and systematically overcome in coming years.Careful market analysis will be needed to identify new areas of employment,which might include pharmaceuticals, food, textiles, footwear and printing. Thegovernment should also encourage creation of an environment receptive to newrole models for women through mass media and, if necessary, through plannedincentives.

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World lakPat2rs:

Education Sector Metorandus, Report No. 5671-PAK, July 1985.

Jimenez, Emanuel, and Tan Joe-Peng. Decentralized and Private Education:The Case of Pakistan. Report No. EDT67. Education and TrainingDepartment, March 1987.

Jimenez, Emanuel, and Tan Jee-Peng. Educational DeveloDment in Pakistan:The Role of User Charges and Private Education. Report No. EDT16.Education and Training DepartLent, December 1985.

Pakistan: Economic and Social Development Prospects (in two volumes). ReportNo. 5962-PAK. South Asia Region, February 18, 1986.

Pakistan: Economic and Social DeveloRment Prospects, Report No. 5962-PAR,February 1986;

Pakistan Sixth Plan Progress and Future Prospects. Report No. 6533-PAK.South Asia Region, February 26, 1987.

"Report on Employment: Issues in Pakistan." EMENA Country Department I.August 3, 1987.

Third Primary Education Project, SAR No. 6492-PAK, May 1987.

Working Papers:

*Assessment of Employers' and Employees' Opinions on Supply and Demand ofVocational Manpower in Pakistan's Industry: Report on the Survey." AWorld Bank Project. By Haque, M. Inamul, National Coordinator of theSurvey. 1987.

Benson, Charles S. "Consultant's Report on Educational Finance and RelatedMatters, Pakistan." Berkeley, November 1987.

Dougherty, Christopher R.S. "Training in Pakistan: Issues and Priorities."London, November 1987.

Foster, Donald M. "Factors Affecting Expansion of Primary and Middle SchoolEducation in Pakistan, and Recommendations for Future IDAParticipation." Berkeley, 1987.

Glentworth, Garth. "Organization and Management Issues in the EducationSector." Education Sector Review Paper: Pakistan. London: The BritishCouncil, November 1987.

Glentworth, Garth. "Organization and Management Key Issues and Problems:Agendas for Reform." Karachi, September 1987.

-89-

(Continued)

Working Pagers (continued\:

Goverument of Sind Education and Culture Department Planning and MonitoringCell. "Material for World Bank Education Sector Mission." Karachi,September 1987.

Malik, Said Rasul. 'Status of Lower Secondary Education in Pakistan: AStudy/Working Paper Prepared for the World Bank." September 1987.

Parvez, Bashir. "Adult Education/Literacy in Pakistan." (Population/HealthSector Review Report, June-July 1987). Washington, D.C.: July, 1987.

Schmidt, Ruth Laila. "Report on Mini-Survey of Pakistani Parents Who AreEducating Their Daughters." Berkeley, October 1987.

Other References:

The Assessment of. and Development of a Strategy/Strategies for Multi-GradeTeaching in Two-Teacher Rural Primary Schools of the Punjab. Lahore:Curriculum Research & Development Center, Punjab Education Department,1984.

Beg, Muhammad Ishfaq, et al. Evaluation of P.T.C./C.T. Curricula Lahore:Curriculum Research & Development Center, Punjab Education Department,February 1987.

Chowdhri, Shaheen, et al. Evaluation of Field-Based Teachers' TrainingProgram in the Northern Areas of Pakistan. Psychological Research

Monograph 6. Islamabad: National Institute of Psychology, 1987.

Culbertson, Robert, et al. Primary Education in Pakistan. A report in fourparts prepared for USAID/Pakistan and the Government of Pakistan.Arlington: Development Associates, Inc., July 1986.

Economic Survey 1986-87. Islamabad: Ministry of Finance Economic Adviser'sWing.

Ghafoor, Abdul. Unit Cost of Higher Education. Islamabad: Academy ofEducational Planning and Management, January 1984.

Hand Book of PooulAtion Census Data. Islamabad: Population CensusOrganization

Press, December 1985.

Issues in Education. Islamabad: National Education Council, 1985.

Khan, S.R., Siddiqui, R., and Hussain, F. An Analysis of School Level Drop-Out Rates and Output in Pakistan. Islamabad: Pakistan Insiitute ofDevelopment Economics, July 1986.

- 90 -

BIBLIOGRAPHY(Continued)

Other References (continued):

Khawaja, Sarfrax. *ri- ry Educatio' in Pakistan and Othe: Asian CountxrJia.Islamabad: Ministry of Education Academy of Educational Planning andNbagement, November 1985.

Malik, Said Rasul, and Ahmad, Mirza Tauhiduddin. A Study on Drop-Outs inPrimayX Schools in Pakistan: A SaMple Survey. Islamabad: Ministry ofEducation Academy of Educational Planning and Management, December 1985.

Primary Education Improvement: Desire Measures. Educational DevelopmentSeries 1. Islamabad: National Education Council, August 1986.

Qureshi, Saeed Ahmad. Agenda for Educational Development 1988-93. Islamabad:Printing Corporation of Pakistan Press, undated.

Sixth Five-Year Plan 1983-87. Islamabad: Ministry of Finance.

Seventh Five-Year Plan 1988-92. Islamabad: Ministry of Finance.

- oOo -

Ainex 1, Table 1: Governaent Development Eipenditures on Education During hirst-Sixtk PlUN6

First Plan Second Plh ' Third Plan ion-Plan Period Fifth Plau Sixth Pl?a(1955-60) 11960-65) (1965-70) (1970-78) : (1918-83) : (1113-U)

Alloc. lip. I Alloc. lip. I ' Illoc. lxp. 2 : Illoc. lip. 2 : illoc. lxp. S lloc. lip. S

Primary 51.4 21.2 41.22: 78.0 18.8 24.12: 68.5 24.7 36.12: 173.9 443.8 93.16' 3,049.7 1,413.1 44.31: 76600.0 3,466.6 4I.72Secondary 68.1 44.0 64.6t: 96.4 95.3 98.92: 284.2 124.5 43.82: 502.5 541.6 107.85, 3,257.0 1,090.1 33.51, 4125.6 3,726.1 N0.2nTeacher Iducation 23.3 4.9 21.02: 17.4 17.5 100.62: 36.0 15.1 41.92, 109.9 114.0 103.712 380.0 290.3 76.42, 365.6 112.6 53.7Technical Education 27.8 8.2 29.52: 61.7 78.6 '27.42: 258.7 97.0 31.52: n.a. 284.0 n.a 7 766.8 1,315.0 3#.6 6I.32College Education 31.8 29.5 92.82: 17.0 68.3 401.82: 64.0 64.2 100.32: 314.8 374.0 118.82: 767.6 536.6 63.92: 1,361.0 1,211.1 13.12gaiversities 48.5 36.5 75.32; 47.5 58.9 124.02: 91.9 59.7 65.0S: 334.1 398.8 119.41: 725.0 187.8 Il.IS' 2,111.0 1,383.3 65.n2Scholarships 2.6 1.0 38.52: 18.7 49.0 262.02: 91.0 76.9 84.52: 257.7 289.9 112.52: 436.0 349.6 81.31: 6l.6 731.6 112.62Kiscellaneous 79.2 60.9 76.92, 215.0 140.9 65.52: 441.9 215.6 48.82: 1,005.2 1,240.7 123.42: 2,089.0 1,271.1 21.15, 2,325.3 1,712.I 88.Is

Total 332.7 206.2 62.021 551.7 527.3 95.62: 1,336.2 677.7 50.71: 2,998.1 3,686.8 123.02:11,465.1 5,643.5 49.22: 13,33#.3 13,320.6 70.72

Share By Subsector: '

First Plan : Second Plan T Third Plan ' Ion-Plan Period Fifth PIln Sixth Pla(1955-60) (1960-65) (1965-70) 1 (1970-78) , (1373-83) (1983-56)

,~~~~~~~~~ ,

Alloc. lip. ASlloc. lip. hlloc. lip. : alloc. lip. Illoc. ip. I Jlloc. fxi.I~~~~~ ~ ..- …*- * .

Primarr 15.42 10.32 14.12 3.62 : 5.1 3.i 15.82 12.02 26.61 25.IS ' 7.t2 25.62Secondary 20.52 21.32 : 17.52 18.12 : 21.32 18.42 : 16.82 14.72 : 28.4U 18.32 21.2 27.ATeacher Iducation 7.0 2.42 3.22 3.3S 2.72 2.22 3.72 3.12 3.32 5.12 1.62 1.42Technical Iducation 8.42 4.02 , 11.22 14.9S , 19.42 14.32 , .a. 7.71 , 6.72 6.2 : 7. n 6.71College Iducation 9.62 14.32 ' 3.1S 13.02 ' 4.82 9.5S 10.52 10.12S 6.7$ I.S; : A J.12Oniversities 14.62 17.72 : 8.62 11.22 ' 6.92 8.8S 11.12 10.82S 6.3 tit.; 1.2n Ic.aScholarships 0.82 0.52 : 3.42 9.32 : 6.82 11.32 : 8.62 7.92 , 3.8S 6.2t 3.55 5.52discellaneoua 23.82 29.52 ' 39.02 26.72 : 33.12 31.82 : 33.52 33.72 : 18.22 22.6t 16.8S 13.42

Total 100.02 100.0 :100.02 100.02 ' 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 10' .DS 1O3. n 16..6 166.6n

Source: 801. PLUAIS6/il/N

- 92 -

Ako 1, i Tl* 2: Scheol Enllmenta Owin Slixth Five-Year Pln

------------ ~~~-- -- -- -- -_

......................... ................................................ ............

"a I tSW I tri........................... ---------------------------............... ---------------------------.......

urbon Swal Total Urban Pral Totol I Urban Rural Total........................... .......................................... ......................................

Nole 1,48U 3.071 4.559 1.676 3.448 5.124 I 1,062 3,757 5.619amle 1.171 1,070 2.241 I 1,256 l43 2,421 I 1,416 1.274 2,760

Total 2.659 4,141 6.000 2,93 4.611 7.545 I 3.348 5,031 6,379

I PcApittiun o d .S-9

Urba Rural Total U ban mural Total Urban Rural Totat... . ... . ....... ... .... .. ... -------------------.-.--.--.-.--. .. .--.-..-.-..-.--.-..-.-..-.--.-..-.-

aets 2,072 5,346 7,418 2,171 5,470 ?.641 2,274 5,597 7.871Famele 1,930 4,964 6,894 I 2,022 5,079 7.101 2,119 5,197 7,316Total 4,002 10.310 14.312 I 4,193 10.549 14,742 4,393 10,794 15,187

IGross Participation Rotiosl

Urban Rural Total | Urban Rural Total | Urban Rural Totul...................................... -- - -- - -- - -- - -- - - ------- ,........----------------..............

Male 0.72 0.57 0.61 I 0.77 0.63 0.67 I 0.82 0.67 0.71F _mle 0.61 0.22 0.33 ! 0.62 0.23 0.34 0 .70 0.25 0.38Total 0.66 0.40 0.48 | 0.70 0.44 0.51 I 0.76 0.47 0.55

~~~~~~..... ....... .... ...... .. .... .... ....... ............ .............. .......................... ..

Mote: Enroll_mnt dato for 1983-85 includes KG ao chitdren as well as over-age childrenwnd repeaters.

............................................................................................

SECOMOAtY...... .... .............. ............................ ......................................

1963/84 U 1964/8S I 1985/86.... ....... ... ......... ................... --------------------- ...............-.--.---.-----------

Urban Rural Total | Urban Rural Total | Urban Rural Total..... * -- I*.. .I---.*- - ------------------------------------

Male 912.2 791.4 1,703.6 I 971.2 U48.5 1,819.7 I 1,041.3 911.3 1,952.6Fam_le 520.8 100.1 620.9 | 560.2 109.3 669.5 | 611.6 120.3 731.9Total 1,433.0 891.5 2,324.5 11,531.4 9f7.8 2,489.2 | 1,652.9 1,031.6 2,684.5

I Population Aged 10-14

--....----------Urban Rural Total | Urban Rural Total | Urban Rurul Total

Nole 1,852.0 4,S18.0 6,370.0 11,940.3 4,622.8 6,563.2 I 2,032.9 4,730.1 6,763.0Famslo 1,653.0 3,740.0 5,393.0 1,731.8 3,826.8 S,558.6 | 1,814.5 3,915.5 5,730.0Totat 3,505.0 8,258.0 11,763.0 3,672.2 8,449.6 12,121.8 I 3,847.4 8,6U5.6 12,493.0

IGross Participation Ratiosl

I--- -------------------- IUrban Rurol Total I Urban Rural Total I Urban Rural Total

I I"ale 0.49 0.18 0.27 0.50 0.18 0.28 M 0.51 0.19 0.29F _ le 0.32 0.03 0.12 I 0.32 0.03 0.12 I 0.34 0.03 0.13Total 0.41 0.11 0.20 | 0.42 0.11 0.21 I 0.43 0.12 0.21

.... UUUUUU2ZS2832#28aSSU USUUUUNU33ZUZg3:.ZUUU2U2U2s.3S2s..S

Source: Plwning Commission nd mission estim_tes. URUWR.wk1

11/21/88

- 93 -

Annx 1. Tabte 3: Age Cohorts rnd Gross Participation Rates (GPM) for Selected Age Croas (1965)

----------- ---. . . . . . . -

I (000)1Urban twatl Total

................................................ I-------.-------.-.--.--.---I-----.---.----------.-- ----

Age Notle f_mie Total ftle Fmtle Total Maloe fam_l Total........ .............. .............................--------------------------..................... ... ..... . .... I .-----------------------

nwolltmwnt 363.6 322.2 691.8 8 07.6 313.2 1.120.8 I 1,171.2 "1.4 1,81k.6Population 373.5 370.5 744.0 926.5 1,019.5 1,946.0 1.300.0 1,390.0 2,690.0

i 9?.3X 8W.6X 93.0XI 87.2X 30.7? 57.63I 90.1X 46.1X 67.4X9 1 I

Enroltm_nt 248.0 177.0 425.0 469.0 132.0 601.0 I 717.0 309.0 1,026.0Population 405.1 375.5 780.6 1.039.9 969.5 2,029.4 1,445.0 1.365.0 2.810.0OPt 61.2X 47.11 54.4%1 45.11 13.3X 29.611 49.6X 22.6X 36.5S

12 I IEnrolltent 200.5 121.7 322.2 I 195.3 27.7 223.0 | 395.8 149.4 545.2Population 382.0 343.0 725.0 I 1,078.0 947.0 2,025.0 1,460.0 1,290.0 2,750.0GPR 52.5 35.5 44.421 18.1X 2.9X 11.0X1 27.1X 11.6X 19.8X

14 1 IEnroll mnt 213.8 80.8 294.6 I 76.7 6.2 82.9 | 290.5 87.0 377.5Population 382.0 343.0 725.0 I 1,068.0 937.0 2,005.0 I 1,450.0 1,280.0 2,730.0GPR 56.0X 23.61 40.6X1 7.2X 0.7? 4.1l1 20.01 6.81 13.81

I I

Source: Planming Comission and Mission estiumtes. GPR.wkl11/21i88

- 94 -

Dmnx 1. Table 4: Kxpmnditures on Rural OVtQ mnt Finwncd - Uderthe Prim Minister's PrWmm, C1986-90)

(Us billion)

Total1966-7 1967-83 1938-89 1969-90 1966-90

A. R~eurrent Expenditure: 2.64 3.20 4.39 6.02 16.25Education

S. Dewlop nt:1. Educatir,n 1.82 2.40 3.12 3.90 11.242. Health 0.91 1.30 1.50 2.00 5.713. Water Supply 1 1.30 1.70 2.20 2.90 8.10

Sanitation4. Rural Roads 1.00 1.30 1.70 2.20 6.205. a. Rural Electrification 1.45 1.92 2.48 3.15 9.00

b. Cost of Generation 2.18 2.88 3.71 4.73 13.50A Transmission

Sub-Total B 8.66 11.50 14.71 18.88 53.75

TOTAL A and S 11.30 14.70 19.10 24.90 70.00

Source: Plannirei and Development Ministry, Islanabad. EXRURDEV.wkl

11/21/88

33es 1, table 5 lducatioe Jevelopme2t t pediUturms (h Million) nd hrollneat hta

brollnets hge CokortsA B Eucation ----------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Dei. Iducation Der. Ip, at 1/1 ,Priary a/ Priary Middle Opper Total 'Prirry liddle 9pper ,Priury Prinry liddle lMrTear lpeadpiture Der. hp. 19186-17 Prices I 2 (1-5) Adjusted b/ (6-8) (9-10) Adjustte (:-9) (10-12) (13-14) Total : (1-5) Ajuted (6-l) (9-11) Total

1174 I1,74I 512 1,336 4. n:1t9I 13,551 701 1,777 5.22:1717 16,239 566 1,353 3.5ZS137 17,150 647 1,488 3.1S31375 20,579 772 1,637 3.81: 5,131 4,105 1,301 479 5,685 '11,221 5,977 3,759 20,957 0.46 9.37 0.22 1.13 6.28(173 21,310 830 1,635 3.1: 5,213 4,176 1,391 476 6,037 :11,561 6,162 3,875 21,606 0.45 I .36X 1.21 1.12 0.231910 26,137 1,193 2,112 4.6s: 5,474 1,379 1,411 509 6,291 :11,926 6,353 3,S95 22,274 0.6 0.37 1 0.2 .13 0.281911 27,000 1,337 2,166 S.ot: 5,741 4,513 1,453 543 6,589 12,235 6,549 4,111 22,163 : I0.4 10.27 0.22 6.13 1.21tol1 A19,114 1l,I 1,234 S 2ti 6,11 4,943 1,614 551 1,101 12,615 6,752 4,246 23,73 1.419 0.3 0.24 1.13 1.311983 28,057 1,88 2,2N4 s.n 8,801 5,44U 1,726 5#8 7,7IS, 13,K7 6,16l 4,311 24,405 '. 52 1.42 1.25 0.14 0.321914 33,050 1,990 2,146 6i0? 71,542 6,034 1,846 642 8,522 13,471 7,176 4,512 25,160 6.56 1.45 0.2C 1.14 0.34185 33,155 2,431 2,t141 3.3? 8,380 3,104 2,012 673 9,311 13,338 1,398 4,852 25,93 1 0.60 0 4 0.27 .14 0.31i 48,049 3,645 3,645 7.92?1910 59,696 4,022 3,131 6.71:

Soere: Ecosomic Survey of Pakistu, 19816-87; Ministry of Iducation, Central Dream of Education, Planning Division ad Mission estimtes. VIV.AlIs/26/U

a/ lncludes under A over age children aid repeaters.b/ Adjsted for underage children in class 1.

- 96 -

Annex 1, Table 6: Primry, Middle and High Schools in Pakistan

uuumx.uusasuuu-u-amaaaa umu--------------n-I-uuuu-u-uauwauumuuusu

Primry Middle 1econdary

------ ------ -----* I- * --- - - -- - - - -- - --- ----- --- --- -- - - - - -

Male Fam_te Total Male Femete Total Mole Fem_le Total

...........................… ----------I …- -. . ..---..----.-.---.

1963-84 45.820 21,143 66.963 I S,032 1.911 6,943 I 3,434 1,190 4,624

1964-85 Schools 47.734 21,778 69,12 5 5,198 2.051 7,249 I 3,663 1,316 4,979

Mosque School 0 0 O |

New Schools 1.914 635 2,549 | 166 140 306 I 229 126 3.

Wh m qw Schools 0 0 0 I

I I1985-86 Schools 48.382 23,238 71,620 j 5,458 2,201 7,659 I 3,884 1,478 5,362

oque School 15,924 0 15,924 I INew Schools 648 1,460 2,108 260 150 410 j 221 162 383

New Mosque Schools 15,924 0 15,924 | I

1986-87 Schools 49,129 27,748 76,877 5 5,677 2,371 8,048 I 4,188 1,673 5,861

Mosque School 21,474 0 21,474 I I

New Schools 747 4,510 5,257 219 170 389 j 304 195 499

New Mosque Schools 5.550 0 5,550 | |

1987-88 Schools 50,591 27.728 78,319 5 5,653 2,711 8,364 I 4,635 1,958 6,593

Mosque School 26,690 0 26,690 I I

New Schools 1,462 (20) 1,442 I (24) 340 316 I 47 285 732

New Mosque Schools 5,216 0 5,216 1...................................................... I…I.... - -------- ...

Total New Schools 4,771 6,585 11,356 | 621 800 1,421 1,201 768 1,969

1983-87 New Mosque Schools 26,690 0 26,690 I I

Source: Plnning Com_ission. SCHOOLS.wkl

11/k1/88

Annex 1, Table 7: lducation lxpeaditures by Level and asPercentage of Total Goveranent lEpenditures

(is lillioas)

diuc. lip.S Total S Total T Total I Total % Total Total Total as S of

Year Primary Ed.Exp. Secondary Ed.lsp. College Id.lKp. University Id.lsp. Other Id.lsp. Edocatios Govermsent Govt. lip.

1977-78 823.6 24.9% 464.7 14.1% 672.4 20.4% 258.0 7.8% 1,082.3 32.8% 3,301.1 44,355.0 7.4%1978-79 1,305.1 33.7% 731.7 18.9% 367.8 9.5% 324.2 8.4% 1,141.1 29.6% 3,876.6 51,206.0 7.2%1979-80 1,604.4 38.6% 820.4 19.7% 387.5 9.3% 426.2 10.3% 915.0 22.0% 4,154.3 61,233.0 6.5%1980-81 1,570.5 34.0% 918.8 19.9% 427.6 9.3% 459.2 9.9% 1,243.0 26.9% 4,619.8 71,684.0 6.4%1981-82 1,B20.0 32.5% 986.9 17.6% 493.8 8.8% 611.3 10.9% 1,690.2 30.2% 5,602.9 IO,138.0 7.0%1982-83 2,096.2 32.4% 1,256.0 19.4% 642.0 9.9% 665.5 10.3% 1,810.2 28.0% 6,470.6 100,361.0 6.4%1983-84 2,543.6 31.0% 1,599.0 21.4% 784.3 10.5% 701.7 9.4% 1,856.1 24.8% 7,485.5 100,002.0 7.5%1984-85 3,280.2 36.1% 2,369.3 26.5% 1,033.8 11.6% 925.7 10.4% 1,330.2 14.9% 8,940.1 121,153.0 6.9%1985-86(R) 3,791.3 36.0% 2,634.4 25.0% 1,115.5 10.6% 997.8 9.5% 1,979.3 18.8% 10,519.1 158,803.0 6.6%1986-87(1) 4,478.7 35.3% 2,899.4 22.9% 1,227.7 9.7% 1,355.2 1D.i3 2,720.5 21.5% 12,682.3 168,848.0 7.5%Average 33.8% 20.5% 10.9% 9.7% 24.9% 6.9%

(R) Revised IIPCTGOV.wik(1) Estimated 05/09/18Source: Econosic Survey of Pakistan 1986-87 and finance Division.Note: Data for education expenditures show sose variance depending Cn source.

%0

hae 1, tble 6: hklsta: Inlent an l6carrt lpnWUtem 0 Uh Hati 1062/13-1107/1l (. uillIl")

1#82-U3 I6-" i4-s 11 NS-36 uu6-n M m u ttal u13?

:':1.3.1.4/ 1.3.1. 3.3.3. 1:li.si I .e. II..:

hi,lop. Ire . tob1l .1.1 h leI. tor.. Total Ihelop. Ie rr. toal Ihoelop. lmn. total ele. hnrr. tal U l hr. thowl I" l wla. _ew. totl

?.ujb O 452 2,324 2,52 464 2 2,653 5I6 3,113 3,671 5IN 4,166 4,1111 1 4,161 1,134 1,146 1,56 T,1 ,1" 2U,lm 23,a" 2' 3 62U 36:1 2 11 71,66 214 1,011 1,213 252 1,311 1,571 463 1,33 2,13 M32 2,m11 2,613 1,1 n.S II,I

lllctistan 617 IN6 251 212 ISI 3 I U 122 4I of I 2 111 in6 211 2,1USid 12 155 1,141 1U 1,112 1,271 2I5 1,123 1,6 1 I1 1,6 3,391 551 2,365 2,63 1 14 261 S2I 2,114 6,23 16,67lekrl,sta,uaa IN 114 1,31 1 612 1,121 1,613 u1633 1,223 2,911 641 1,615 2.522 1,414 1,133 M,46 1,33 1,116 3.13 S,163 ?,12 121.12

tabl iU atlo 1 1,53' 4,1 6,23I1 1,662 5,111 ?,442 1,16 71,23 1,611 : 2.24 ,611 11,133 1 3,611 IL,IN 14,67 3,6 12,12 Islas 113.13 46.441 16,113

Total loenrmt 1/,2: 1.21i 314 11,11 7 IH,1 21.1n 2 715312 114.62 4 33,555 1U,352 n12,H311 31443 6,346 136,163 1 4,2m1 I16,436 MIT 41,311 u M I2 17111 1,3 56,6 636.63?

uctios u I of 5.22 6.61 6 s22 5.12 71.1 7.121 5." 6.62 112: 6.sn 3.6 6.116 .S121 1.S5 121' 6.71 6.31 1.6: 1.21 6.3 6.1

P at Curreat at PFr1 215,3623 452,6 s 5,ss1 513,1231 6U2l,X 11,1:umtle Ut"W n .. I of OR 3/

e : z | |~~~~I :hwlq h.u. totliiUstleil 25U.12 n2.1 unn:totl6.. 114.21 12.11 11331

vloelqwrt aid arnmt peltbons O Ideoctioo IU2/13-111/91 li 1112 Coetat PriceB

11.2-63 1 1013-64 : 9 114-6 I35-31 16-61 1 61 :''1.3.1. 3.6.1. 6.36. 1. all.. Zliac. £11.'.

Ih1elop. Jrr. Total Ihoelop. Rl rr. Total bevelop. lh rr. total henlop. larr. Total 'Ieelop. lnrr. Total I1hilop. harr. ttotl

.oe 412 2,124 2,521 421 2,316 2,611 442 2,011 3,261 l 511 3.4132,1.2 TN6 3,316 4.17 162 4,366 5,116

a" 213 63 6e11i 246 132 1I1 243 Oil 1.U 213 1,114 1,s22 3TS 1,316 1,111 46 1,162 2662:loeelstN St 11 1 2517 12 241 21 I6 212 36 163 343 446 IU 434 111 Itl W I4

Slid 132 655 3,3411 152 1,623 1,1I1 1 235 1,111 1,312 353 1,16' 1,523 4' 1,U66 2,1116 ' 3,62 2,3 'lederal,lob,lao IN 114 1,3" 61 II 131 1,51 1 131 1,664 1,1231 11 1,416 2,131 1,114 I,5S 2,t16, 1,02 1,44: 2,411

total tdntito 3,536 4,711 6,233 1,526 5,315 1,U4 1 1,164 1,2214 111 3,361 1,512 l,U41 2,173 l,I3 33,tN 3l,6 1,7U 12,32total overonit 11,21' 3,34 1,111 166,361 21,415 6,241 35,114 1 21,11 77,422 117,134 ,31,641 6, 115,6I1 34,252 6,211 11,51371 24.642 ,3 3 14,22 1

uti. lh du aeeI 2 5.21 i5.6 1.U1 1.1211 51 . 1 6.S2 1,12 6.31: .1 161 m.31 16.12 .0. 6.62:total ot. Sp i , ' ,

Tue o Tur Chug. -6.1% 13.1U U .1S 1 15.5I I3.S 16.1n 7.51 U.n 11.62: .S1t 16.l 26.n: 2.61 .5 U .7n1, Idmealom b1ed.1

I s ' claee l2-6? I

u @i'' h1,ee W-it tbal 'j : j Idictlul 16621 2#6.U 26n.3ij ' ' u~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Yt c. 1 116.6 36.62 133.12

gotb: I/ Uaso tibubrte rtillaer .bsil4 lucelWW as rcrret ereiplten 4/ Ib lad buet utlutA tU2dl2/ IIS-I o6 ardU-Ubt proulloeul S/ Illocatlee IS/12/N3/ cn estiut for 11-6II bUd a 322 ave cI grotb f.. 12-13 to 11u-1

eurea: Feral ui Proiluclal plmlelg ui IUeatlon bprtnitb.

- 99 -

Pop I of 2Amex 1, Table 9: Developmant *nd ecurrent Expenditures Owing Sixth Five-Year Plan

(Is Nilliu)

Oevelopmnt E I ditur.e Total192/64- Sixth Plan

1983/04 19/ 19J n/06 196W67 1967/IS 197/1 llAttocation S cpnt

Primary 319 403 575 9n0 1,139 3,406 7r00 48.7Secendory 419 549 *4T INA 1.219 3,720 4.125 90.2Teacher Training 25 35 42 43 37 182 305 59.7Technical Edue tian 123 156 174 23J 205 a96 1.315 66.3Collge 174 2A 257 276 2S9 1,210 1,300 93.1Scholarships as 121 169 160 204 739 660 112.0Literacy wd Han-Forml 10 22 60 391 350 833 750 111.1University 243 309 234 404 193 1,383 2,100 65.9Ni*cetlen*eus/Dth*r Division 97 106 86 301 357 949 1,275 74.4

1,495 1,949 2,244 3,669 3,963 13,320 18,830 70.7ODf lators 1 1.037419 1.067840 1.134820 1.184 (1967 def eat *r ave 1963-86)

...................... ............................................ ............... ...........

Develop nt Expenditures at 1963 Constant Prices: Total1983/84-

1963/84 1964/85 1965/86 1986/87 1987/58 1987/5U

Primary 319.0 388.5 528.6 854.8 962.0 3;053Secondary 419.0 529.2 594.8 780.7 1,029.6 3,353Teacher Training 25.0 33.7 38.6 37.9 31.3 166Technical Education 123.0 152.3 159.9 209.7 173.1 818Colege 174.0 235.2 236.2 243.2 218.8 1,107Scholerships 85.0 116.6 155.4 141.0 172.3 670Literacy and Non-Formal 10.0 21.2 55.2 344.5 295.6 727University 243.0 297.9 215.1 356.0 163.0 1,275Niscellaneous 97.0 104.1 79.1 265.2 301.5 847

1,495.0 1,878.7 2.062.8 3,233.1 3,347.1 12,017

Subsctoral Development Expenditures as X of Total Expenditures:1983/84-

19/84 1984/85 1965/86 1966/87 1987/88 1987/88

Prifmry 21.3 20.7 25.6 26.4 28.7 25.6Secondary 28.0 28.2 28.8 24.1 30.8 27.9Teacher Training 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.9 1.4Technicat Education 8.2 8.1 7.8 6.5 5.2 6.7College 11.6 12.5 11.5 7.5 6.5 9.1Scholarships 5.7 6.2 7.5 4.4 5.1 5.5Literacy end Mon-Formtl 0.7 1.1 2.7 10.7 8.8 6.3University 16.3 15.9 10.4 11.0 4.9 10.4Nleweletneous 6.5 5.5 3.8 8.2 9.0 7.1

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0......... ............... ....................................................... ...............................................................

- 100 -

Page 2 of 2Annex 1, Teblo 9: Dwtelopmnt and R current Expenditures During Sixth Five-Year Plan

(N Nit lliow)

Rewurent Expenditures:-

1983/84 1964/805 196/86 1966/87 1967/U

Primry 2,395 2.786 3.M 4.113 N.A

Secondry 1,313 1,807 2,140 2,375 M.ATechnical Educetion 109 132 160 199 N.A

Cotlge 649 780 925 1,051 N.A

UnIversity 469 547 590 839 N.A

Other 965 1,167 1,312 2,595 N.A

5,920 7,219 8,905 11,172 W.A

Recurrent Expenditures at 193 Prices:

1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88

Primary 2,395 2,686 3,473 3,624 N.A

Secondary 1,313 1,742 1.967 2,093 N.A

Technical Educatlon 109 127 147 175 N.A

Coltleg 649 752 850 926 N.A

University 469 527 542 739 N.A

other 985 1,125 1,206 2,287 N.A

5,920 6,959 8,186 9,845 N.A. ........................ ... .... .. .. .. ...... .. ... .....

Subseectoral Coposi tion:

1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88

Primary 40.5 38.6 42.4 36.8 N.A

Secondary 22.2 25.0 24.0 21.3 N.A

Technical Edacation 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 N.A

College 11.0 10.8 10.4 9.4 N.A

University 7.9 7.6 6.6 7.5 N.A

Other 16.6 16.2 14.7 23.2 N.A

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N.A

--------- axaz-z=== S

Source: Planning Commission wnd Economic Survey of Pakistan. FINA.ukl

11/21/88

ims 1. Table II: Sakeetors) lbeatin bpiiditim, 1112-13 to INT-N (b fillim) he I d I

hulopmet harreat hisloput learrat kiolopeat bormt hielormt bnrmt k"l"mt bmmt k"hmd bwmtb t h I Is I b I b I b I I$ I b I b I b I b t b I

- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------triury 111.1 40.2 11127.1 53.1 83.2 17.1 1,4#1.6 51.4 IISA 23.0 1.130.4 R.3 131.6 23.1 2.222.3 14.1 306.6 31.1 2,211.1 47.5 0 210 .1 14ASemlary 131.2 34.4 517.1 24.3 113.6 31.5 124.3 24.1 INA 33.2 113.1 25.6 241.5 41.1 1,015.5 24.7 361.3 341 1.111.3 24.4 01.8 0.1 I.G4.1 9.1Tucker frailiag 1.3 0.3 1.1 9.0 5.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.2 0.0 9.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 7.2 1.7 1.1 0.0 1.3 0.1 2.4 1.1feekaical 26.1 i.6 14.6 3.5 11.2 17.1 95.5 3.1 61.5 13.3 111.1 3.8 43.1 7.3 134.0 3.2 14.7 7.1 211.4 4.4 M.$ 1.0 211.9 4.3Collate 35.3 1.1 303.4 14.3 $1.4 12.4 332A 12.1 63.2 12.6 442.1 13.9 91.7 19.2 $27.5 12.1 12.9 $A 10.1 11.6 UA 11.1 70.1 13.3Scholarikip 17.2 4.3 0.1 0.1 20.1 4.3 1.1 14 21.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 $4.6 9.1 0.1 6.0 56.1 U 1.1 0.0 664 1.2 1.0 1.1liscellum s 21.6 5.4 101.1 4.8 35.2 7.6 127.5 4.1 $5.4 11.1 172.1 5A 11.3 1.1 211.1 5.1 13.1 1.4 417.1 11.2 U.: 6.1 321.7 5.1--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

411-91".1 2,123.1100.1 111.3111.0 2,511.8111.1 410.9111.1 3,179.3100.1 614.1 111.1 4,101.41H.1 963.1 INA CH1.3111.1 83.1100.1 I.W.11H.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1112-13 196344 lolt-15 isil-a lo -17 im -0kyolopwgt lmrmt kwolopost' bnrrest k"lopmeat lmrmt kvelopml beirrat bftl"mt banot knismA IIs I b s b I b I lo I to I b I b I b I b I b I b I

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------hinry 71.4 36.6 434.3 45.5 92.2 37.5 536.2 48.2 71.6 27.1 612.1 47.7 237.1 54.1 139.6 46.2 321.1 U-$ 1,111-1 503 $11.1 0.6 1,106.1 41.6Stectiary I.I. I.A. I.A. I.A. 0.3 21.1 311.4 28.1 11.2 35.5 30.1 21.1 16.4 18.3 124.5 31.7 IN.1 MI M A U.0 810.1 44.6 M .1 9.1hicket Trallial 1A. I.J. U . IA. 1.1 1.6 12.4 2.9 1.4 3.2 34.5 2.7 11.7 2.6 37.3 2.7 11.1 1.1 U4 1.1 11.1 1.5 12.8 2.1leciaical IA. U . U . I.A. 12.8 7.1 ZU 2.3 21.3 11.1 21.6 2.3 21.1 1.4 34.0 2.5 32.1 5.1 39.6 1.1 X.1 3.7 0.4 2.4colloce U . 1.1. I.J. U . 27.1 16.8 110.0 17.1 41.9 15.7 215.5 16.8 53.1 12.1 231.1 IT-2 U.3 1.1 W -$ 13.9 41.1 5.1 Xi.? 14.4Sebolarskips I.L. N.J. I.A. I.A. S. 4 3.3 8.6 1.1 5.4 2.1 1.0 1.6 4.1 1.1 #A 1.1 0.2 1.1 2.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.1liscallum s I.J. U . 1.1. I.L. 5.1 3.1 6.3 0.1 14.5 5.5 7.8 1.6 1.3 2.2 9.2 1.7 7.1 1.3 111 4.3 6.1 1.1 113.4 6.3--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Total 112.3 M A 154.1 110.1 165.7 M A 11112.3 M A 295.1 101.1 1,263.1 101.0 41S.2 INA 1,313.4 10.1 UIA INA 2.084.6 10.0 113.6 IN$.$ 2,111.? In.$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INI-13 1183-14 1114-85 lns-u im-st lm-akilloplat lmrmt levelopent lmffat k"lopeat bctrmt k"lowlt keermt amimat bmmt b"lmwt be""Atb I b 11 Is I b I b 2 b 11 b I b t b I b I b I b I

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LPrinry 141.3 $3.1 262.3 41.1 123.8 46.9 313.1 31.4 111.7 31.1 312.1 35.5 74.4 29.5 478.1 X.2 201.1 UA SP-1 81.5 111-1 34.1 761.1 UAse"Mary 68.1 21.2 216.1 33.1 75.1 28.6 272.1 34.2 14.3 31.7 321.4 31.5 11.3 35.1 432.1 32.1 151.1 33.1 *7 .4 VA 16.6 81.1 151.1 0.1TeKkr traitild 5.1 1.1 so.$ 4.1 1.3 3.1 32.4 4.1 1.3 3.1 1". 1 11.7 11.2 4.4 141.7 11.1 1.1 1.7 M .1 10.1 7.1 1.4 W A 16.1Teciliul 16.6 5.1 11.1 2.1 15.1 5.8 11.1 2.5 21.3 7.1 28.1 2.6 2C 1 9.1 46.7 3.5 V.) 6.2 53.1 3.2 11.1 5.4 71.1 3.1College 17.2 6.5 11.2 12.7 33.4 12.3 91.7 11.5 35.6 12.1 17.7 1.6 37.0 14.' 119.2 8.3 46.2 10.0 M 4 7.2 U.3 7.1 INA 1.7Sebolaribip 8.6 3.3 1.1 0.1 1.9 3.5 1.0 6.0 1.6 3.5 6.1 1.9 11.6 4.2 0.0 0.0 11.1 2.3 1.1 1.0 13.4 2.6 1.1 1.6liscollum s 1.1 2.3 31.7 4.8 3.0 1.4 $7.1 1.4 1.7 2.4 112.1 11.1 1.8 1.9 111.5 8.5 10.2 2.2 M .$ 12.1 11.6 11.6 154.6 7.3--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Total 212.7 M A $31.1 111.0 210.6 111.1 ?H.? M A 214.1 100.0 1.111.9 01.1 252.4 101.1 1,311.1 114.1 462.1 I101 1,03.0 M .# $11.0 IN4 2,"I.2 in-I

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Table 10: Subsectoral Iducation lxpenditures, 1982-83 to 1987-88 (is Millions) page 2 of 3

BiLOCIISTON:

1982-83 1983-84 1954-85 1985-86 1986-81 1987-88Development Recurrent Development Recurrent Development lecurrent Developmient Recurreat Development lecarreBt Detelopeet lecmrreatto 2 Is 2 Is 2 Is I Is 2 is 2 Is 2 go 2 Is 2 Is I ii 2 Is 2

Primary 27.6 41.0 89.5 47.1 24.7 27.7 111.5 42.6 38.6 32.9 159.3 58.1 35.8 29.4 180.4 44.5 23.3 11.8 241.8 46.6 66.2 30.1 N.A. N.A.Secondary 16.5 24.5 42.9 22.6 26.6 29.9 57.9 22.1 50.3 42.8 56.3 17.7 64.5 53.0 N.A. N.h. 31.0 18.7 125.5 23.4 50.0 26.8 l.A. N.A.teacher Training 5.5 8.2 7.9 4.2 6.3 7.1 11.8 4.2 3.3 2.8 13.1 4.1 3.5 2.9 N.h. P.A. 5.2 2.6 33.5 6.2 2.0 0.9 N.h. N.A.Technical 3.5 5.2 1.7 0.9 5.5 6.2 2.4 0.9 5.3 4.5 2.2 0.7 2.9 2.4 I.A. N.A. 1.0 0.5 P.A. I.A. 0.8 0.0 N.A. N.A.College 12.8 19.0 16.8 8.8 19.4 21.8 26.9 10.3 8.3 7.1 38.4 12.1 14.9 12.3 N.A. P.A.. 11.1 5.6 52.1 9.7 6.7 3.0 N.A. N.A.Scholarships 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 8.0miscellaneous 1.4 2.1 31.2 16.4 6.6 7.4 52.3 20.0 11.7 10.8 48.8 15.3 0.0 8.0 I.A. N.A. 120.0 60.7 79.2 14.0 10.6 45.3 N.J. N.A.

Total 07.3 180.0 190.0 100.0 89.1 108.8 262.0 180.8 117.5 180.0 318.1 100.8 121.6 108.0 485.8 108.0 197.6 100.0 536.1 180.0 219.8 100.8 678.1 100.0

FIDIRAL:

1982-83 1983-84 1984-05 1985-80 1986-81 1907-88Development Recurrent Development Recurrent Development Recurrenit Development Recurrent Development Recurrent Dveyeopmet RecmrrestRe 2 s Re 2 Is 2 Rn 2 Rs 2 Rs 2 Is 2 to 2 Is I Is 2 Is I

Primary N.A. R.I. I A. I.0. 21.1 3.2 N.J. N.A. 42.7 5.1 N.A. l.A 87.2 10.3 N.A. N.A. 113.4 7.7 3.A. N.A. 128.7 9.0 P.A. I.I.Secondary I.A I.A. l.A. N.A. 29.5 4.4 N.h. P.A. 51.9 6.2 R.I. N.h. 167.1 19.7 N.A. N.A. 182.3 12.4 N.A. R.I. 206.9 15.3 N.J. IA..Teacher Training N.J. R.I. i.. I.I. 1.9 0.3 N.A. I8A. 1.9 0.2 N.h. N.A. 7.4 8.9 R.I. N.J. 12.0 0.8 N.A. P.A. 10.0 0.0 N.A. 8.0.Tecbnical N.I. 0.0. N.A. N.h. 10.9 1.6 N.A. R.I. 42.1 5.1 N.h. N.A. M6. 9.0 N.A. N.A. 101.5 6.9 N.J. N.A. 1165 8.7 P.A. NAICollege N.A. R.I. R.I. V.I. 11.2 1.7 P.A. 8.0. 35.2 4.2 N.A. I.0. 54.4 6.4 R.I. N.h. 85.5 5.8 N.A. P.A. 105.1 7.0 N.A. N.AUniversity 255.5 8.0. 409.9 N.J. 212.4 31 6 516.4 50.6 280.3 33.6 587.6 48.0 234 27.6 660.7 39.5 484.5 27.4 N.A. N.A. 192.7 14.4 N.J. l.A.Scholarships I.A. I.A. I.A. N.h. 44.7 6.7 N.A. N.A. 55.0 6.6 N.A. N.A. 100.6 11.9 N.A. N.A. 93.2 6.3 N.A. N.A. 133.9 18.0 N.J. N.A0Miscellaneous R.I. K.h. I . N.h. 41.0 6.1 N.A. I A. 58.2 7.0 N.h. N.0. 120.7 N.A. N.A. I.A. 347.0 23.5 N.A. N.A. 407.1 30.5 N.A. N.A.Other Federal Divs NIA. N.A. I.I. N.h. 290.7 44.4 N.h. N.A. 266.06 31.9 N.A. N.A. 0.0 P.0. N.A. N.h. 135 9.2 N.A. N.A. 45 0 3.4 N.A. N.A.

Total N.A. N.A. N.A. 8.0 672.0 100.0 1,021.0 100.0 833.3 108.8 1,223.3 100.0 847.5 100.0 1,674.7 100.0 1,474.4 180.0 1,933.1 100.0 1,336.7 100.0 1,87.4 188.0

….. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . - - - - - - - - - - - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Table 10: Subsectoral lducation Ixpenditures, 1982-83 to 19187-8 (1s lillioul Post 3 of 3

TOTAL:

1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 illS-II 1#8-8Development Recurrent Development lecurreat Development lecurreat Developmeat lecurreat Derelopuent locurront hvelopwat lereatIs t Is S Is Is % Is % Bes I Rs I iRs 2 i I Is I Is I Is 2

Prisary l.A. l.A. N.A. l.A. 315.6 19.0 l.A. N.A. 376.6 18.9 N.A. l.A. 574.8 25.6 I.A. I.A. 970.1 26.1 N.A. N.A. I.A. N.A. l.A. N.A.Secondary P.A. I.A. P.A. N.A. 364.8 22.0 N.A. I.1. 446.7 22.4 l.A. 1.A. 646.8 28.8 l.A. N.A. 885.8 24.1 N.A. I.A. P.A. N.A. I.A. N.A.Teacher Traiinig N.A. I.A. M.A. 1.A. 25.2 1.5 N.A. P.A. 31.7 1.6 l.A. N.A. 42.4 1.9 N.A. M.A. 42.6 1.2 N.A. .A. .A. N.A. .A. ..Technical P.A. I.A. l.A. N.a. 124.2 7.5 I.A. M.A. 164.5 8.3 P.A. N.A. 173.8 7.7 N.A. N.A. 238.1 6.5 N.A. M.A. m.A . 1.A. l.i.College 141.4 P.A. 500.6 1.1. 149.3 9.0 650.4 11.3 183.8 9.2 858.2 12.2 257.D 11.5 925.2 10.4 216.0 7.5 M.A. N.A. 1m. N.A. N.A. I.i.University 255.5 1.A. 409.9 P.A. 212.4 12.8 516.4 8.9 280.3 14.1 587.6 8.4 234 10.4 660.7 7.4 404.5 11.0 N.A. M.A. .A A. N.A. N.A.Scholarships N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 79.7 4.8 l.A. l.A. 94.D 1.7 N.A. N.A. 169.3 7.5 l.J. N.A. 11.0 4.4 I.A. m.A. m.A. N.A. I.A. N.A.Ihacellaneous I.A. N.A. N.A. l.A. 91.8 5.5 N.A. N.A. 146.5 7.4 N.A. N.A. 146.1 6.5 N.A. M.A. .557.4 15.2 I.A. 1a. N.A. N.A. I.1. N.A.Other Federal Diis P.A. P.A. N.A. P.A. 298.7 18.0 N.A. N.A. 266.06 13.4 M.A. N.A. 0 0.0 l.1. M.A. 135 3.7 N.A. N.A. N.A. a .A. N.A. I.a.

TOTAL M.A. P.A. 1.A. N.J. 1,661.7 10D.0 5,780.8 100.0 1,990.1 100.0 7,022.7 100.0 2,244.2 100.0 8,888.4 100.0 3,669.3 106.6 11,218.1 166.1 3,412.8 1nW.G 12,725.2 1I1.1

Sources: Planniag Comsission and Provincial Govermeests I5/1H/I

0

- 104 -

Armx 1, Tabl 11: Eduction ExpwWitwue as Sha of GNP in Sixth wnd Seventh Plwm

Expenditure. (es *illions) -X----D A B C

Y"r W Detlpment Recurrent Totol A/D B/0 C/D

19U 452,856 1.662 5.781 7,443 0.4X 1.3X 1.6"1964 S02,551 1,990 7,023 9,013 0.4X 1.4X 1.8

Sixth Plan '965 563,296 2,244 8,8a8 11,132 0.4X 1.62 2.021966 626,538 3,669 11,028 14,697 0.62 1.8X 2.3X1987 710,723 3,964 12,725 16,689 0.62 1.8X 2.31

Total 2,855,964 13,529 45,445 58,974 0.52 1.6" 2.1X

Expenditures (Rs millions) ----- X ----D A B C

Year GNP Development Recurrent Total A/D 8/0 C/D.. ....... ..... .. .... ............... _........... ..................................... ...... ........... _

198 749,813 4,536 14,548 19,084 0.62 1.9X 2.511969 791,052 4,536 16,003 20,539 0.62 2.01 2.6X

Seventh Plan 1990 834,560 4,536 17,603 22,139 0.5 2.11 2.711991 880,461 4,536 19,363 23,899 0.52 2.2X 2.7Xi992 928,887 4,536 22,074 26,610 0.51 2.41 2.9X

................ .................... ............ ...... ................ ................ .... ........

Total 4,184,773 22,680 89,592 112,272 0.52 2.11 2.72

Assumes that average annul growth in GNP during 7th * 1.055Plan period.... ..... _._,.............................................................................................................. ...... ...............

Source: Plarming Comission and mission estimates amltabl1.wkl17-Nov-88

- 105 -

Anex I. bte 12: T_acherr Eaoyad aid Training Cpcity, 1967

.uuwauSuUaUsUmUuuuasu.Us5uu.uuUauuuUUuuU3UUuuUu.uuauU.U"aau.3uS33suS3S

Teedwr Eatwoyd Ai |At Training Capacity......... .............. _1,.... ... .. ...............................----------------------

Fed/FATA/ FdJFATA/Tot NO Punjab Batlud. Sind YA I Totat NWP Pjob Satuch. Sind FANA

..................................................................... I------------------------------------------------lut. 130,99 18*49 .216 6.40 2659. 7.155 I10.579 76 6."0 MS 2,250 240

Primwy Femle U3,346 6.430 36,632 1.629 16.336 2.319 8 ,7 337 7.540 95 75 0

total 194.345 25.0S 104,646 10.034 6,9 9,474 19.426 1,121 14,400 S40 3,125 240

lt. 39.350 6.14" 23.246 2.7S2 3.63 3.S43 3.M 334 2,158 430 750 100

*11 . if_t* 13.072 1.443 12.232 57S 2.846 976 I 2.024 96 1.60S 40 280 0

Totat 57,422 7.59 3S.476 3.327 6.S09 4.519 I 5.79% 430 3.7t .70 1,030 100

Note 61,593 11.676 33,960 2,2S2 10,104 3.579 I 1.205 1SO 590 200 200 65

Secondery iFmte 27,366 2.032 16,212 426 7,es 601 I 640 S0 405 60 100 25

Totat 88,961 13,710 50192 2,680 17.999 4.380 164S 200 995 260 300 90................................................................................................. ........................................................................... *..

Ratioc of Nale/Fevmle Teachers I Ratio of Nale/Femete Training Capacity-- --- ------ ------------ ----------- --- - ------- 1 ------------------------------- ---------------------

Fed/FATA/I Fed/FATA/

Total NWFP PunJab Beluch. Sinid FANA I Total NUFP Punjab Batuch. Sind FANA..................................................................... I------------------------------------------

atte 67.42 74.32 6S.12 83.82 63.6" 75.521 54.5s 69.92 47.62 82.4x 72.0o 100.02Primary FP_tl 32.6X 25.72 34.92 16.21 36.42 24.S5J 45.52 30.12 s2.42 17.62 28.02 0.02

Total 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.0X| 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02

|tte 68.s5 81.02 65.52 82.72 s6.32 78.421 6S.12 77.72 57.32 91.52 72.8x 100.ox

Niddle FPint 31.52 19.02 34.S 17.32 43.72 21.621 34.92 22.32 42.72 8.5s 27.22 0.02Total 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.0l 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.0X 100.02

IfNa 69.22 85.22 67.72 84.02 S6.12 81.721 65.-A 75.02 59.32 76.92 66.72 72.22

Seocndary FPmnto 30.82 14.82 32.32 16.02 43.9s 18.321 34.72 25.02 40.72 23.12 33.32 27.82Total 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.0l 1 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.0

Notes: 1/ Estimates of teacehrs eaployed provided by Provincial Education Departments.

21 Estim_tes of training capacity provided by Curricultu Wings in NFPP 1aluchisten and Sind; DPI In PunJab.3/ Esti_mtes of teachers employed by leel my include teachers of different level.4/ Estim_tes of training capacity in Punjab includes PTC units, which are to be phased out.

TabI .wkl21-Nov-88

- 106 -

Amex 1, Table 13: ludet Allocations for College nd Universities(196/3-1985/6)

as Nittiom

Level/Stage Category 1982-83 1983-84 1964-85 1985-86.. ............... ............................................ ...........

Collge Developomnt 141 147 179 212

Recurrent 501 795 958 1,138

............................................

Total 642 942 1,137 1,350

University Development 226 232 279 219

Recurrent 373 469 547 661

Total 599 701 826 880

Totat Education 6,231 7,442 9,013 11,320

College educationas X of total education 10.32 12.7X 12.6X 11.92

Uhniversity education 9.62 9.4X 9.22 7.8Xas X of total education

Nigher education 19.9X 22.1X 21.82 19.7Xas X of total education.. ...... ........... ...........................

Source: MOE; Ec.nomic Survey of Pakistan 1986-87;Statistical Yearbook 1987; U1GC; GOP EducationSurvey 1986-7 and mission estimates.

tab13.wkl11/21/88

- 107 -

AiMeU 1. TabLe 14: Collee w*d University Enrollaent at

Inteladite Owes Lmls (1962-86)

I ~~~~~~~.uaUUuus.uuuuuuuSuuaaaSuu_uuuuuUinU3mUuuuinuugU_uO*_u_ _

SThENGISTAGE 1962-83 1983-84 1914-85 1965-86.................................................................

Intermediate 48,973 54,029 56.312 57,968coLLeges and

Internediate higher second-

stream ary schools,........... .............................................................. .

Degree 212,102 222,283 224.179 235,944

col leges...... .......... ...................................

Total 261,075 276,312 280,491 293.912

Degree 89,549 93,207 96,79U 106,968

colleges

Degree General 16,412 15,554 15,471 18,372

stream universities

Total 105,961 108,761 112,261 125,340

Professional 58,587 56,276 59,169 61,213

colleges

Professional Professional 13,619 16,357 17,927 19,004

stream universities

Total 72,206 72,633 77,096 W,217............... ............................... . ..... .............

Source: Bureau of Education, Ministry of Education, Goverrnment

of Pakistan, 'Statistics on Higher Education in

Pakistan," 1986.

tabl4.wkl

11/21/88

- 108 -

Aiwis 1, Table 15: Pakastsn Enrollment In Nihr Education19@5-|6

Ave agIn titf tion Nud r Enrollt nt Enrollment

Mates Feasts Total Noles Fmales Total......................................... ..........................................................................................

Inten edIate 123 79 202 38,231 14,459 52,690 261College.....................................................................................

Deree Colleges 214 97 311 163,394 72,550 235,944 759

Nigher Secondary 81 22 103 4,374 904 5,278 51Schools

Anwnx 1, Table 16: Pakisten Enrollment In Degree-Level Colleges1985-86

AverageInstitution Number Enrollment Enroltlent

..

Males Female Total Males Females Total...................................... ........................................................................

66,594 40,374 106,968 344 DegreeStrom

Dgree Collages 214 97 311 -------------------------------------------------.---163,394 72.550 235,944 759 Intermediate

streaw.................................................................................................

Total Avere enrollment of degree colleges1,103

....................................... ......................................................................... .............................

tabl5.wk111/21/88

ism 1, Table It: hrollmt I Ir fmloeul Colleeh P I .f 2

Till ( 1 lgIylonrly hilcal C_merce Ikcatie km. lcumica L.i Flee Aria kmmptilSWmscLmFlelrc b t buiua d1t

I I I I I 7 I I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I I I ? I 9 I I I ? I I 1......................................................................... ... .................---------------------.-...........-------------------..-----.-.................................... ....... .......... -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Isaiah 5s,224 6 1,64 I 2,56 6 2,354 2 396 5 2,431 1 '., 1, 4 44U I U 21,12si 4 5,563 5 7 ,2s5 4 t,122 2 1,355 2 1,553 4 4,723 6 6 23 5 13346 S 0 ,21MPIt 2 I J1.4 2 5 5 352 1 6 6 S 2 i47 I I I I I I 1 2,T73hIucista I 61 1 312 1 145 1 5 1 9 1 I1 I I I I I I I 1 1,256hienl I I I I 1 145 1 Is? I I I 1 1 5 9 I I I I I I 41

Sem Total 12 12,311 16 26,715 23 13,333 5 4,31 4 1,473 13 7,136 I 422 6 1,313 I "I 2 51 HA,S

I- lu r of iutitt. tablvAlT - Total merolimt 5/3/63

8

- 110 -

Pag 2 of 2

Annx 1. taM* 17: Enroll_mnt in Profehionmi College.Distribution of MNloe *nd Fm_Le (1985-86)

......................................... ............................................................. ..................

.................... ........... ................

Discipline Enrollmnt........ .............. .................. ..........................................................

aloe Famle Total

Eninering 5.503 86 5,649

Nedical 16.510 4,276 20,786

Co _ erce 8.893 1,438 10.331

Education 2,864 2.005 4.869

Home Economics 0 1,473 1,473

LaI 7.650 286 7,936

Fine Arts 260 112 372

Homeopathic and Tibb 1.807 303 2,110

Agriculture 944 30 974

Total 44,491 10.009 54.500

Source: Bureau of Education Ministry of Education, Governnentin Pakistan: "Statistics on Professionat Colleges in

Pakistan," 1987

- ill -

Aiux 1. Tale 18: Enroll_mnt fn Graduate Lete Educationby Type of Institutlon

(1965-86)

Averag

Institution luder Enrollmnt Enrollmnt

male Fem_le Total Male Femle Total

Gra&#te leel 20 5 25 3,384 565 3,949 158Collee

Professional 82 10 92 51,155 10,058 61,213 665coltege

Universities

Public 18 51,090 8.801 59,891 3,327

Private 2 470 100 570 285

tabl$.wki

11/21/88

- 112 -

AnrVx 1, Table 18a: Enrollment in Colleg Education by Stage, Subject andGender, (1985-86)

Nigher secondary (interudiate) Iumanities Science Totalstage (FA/Fac) Grade 11-12

N F T N F T N r T

Punjab 78.534 43,304 121.838 33,610 6,552 4.0,162 112.144 49.856 162.000Sind 46,355 12,553 58,906 7,429 19,346 26,7m 53,784 31.899 85.683NWFP 12,655 2,510 15,165 8,592 650 9,242 21,247 3,160 24,407Saluchistan 1,776 937 2,713 5,830 654 6,48U 7,606 1,591 9,197Federal 6,485 1,156 7,641 3,988 996 4,964 10,473 2,152 12,625

Grand Total 145,805 60,460 206,265 59,449 28,198 87,647 205,254 88,658 293,912

- MaleF FemaleT - Total

Source: Raw provincial data (Punjab);Directorate of Education, Government of Baluchistan, nEducation Statistics," 1986;Management Unit for Study and Training, Governnent of NWFP: Educational Yearbook," 1986-87; andEducatfon and Culture Department, Governnent of Sind, "Basic Statistics."

- 113 -

Page 2 of 2Annx 1, Table 1Ua: Enrollmnt in Colleg Educetion by Stage. SubJect and

Gender (1985-86)

Degree Stage tBA/Bac) Nunmnities Science TotalGres 13-14

N F T N F T N F T

Punjab 27,287 19,030 46,317 13,385 2,384 15,769 40,672 21,414 62,086Sind 10,429 12,582 23,011 3,487 2,218 5,705 13,916 14,800 28,716NWFP 4,66*, 1,050 5,710 2,722 333 3,055 7,382 1,383 8,765SaLuchistan 620 423 1.043 641 112 753 1,261 535 1,796Federal 2,019 1,346 3,365 1,344 896 2,242 3,363 2,242 5,605

Grand Total 45.015 34,431 79,446 21,579 5,943 27,524 66,594 40,374 106,968

tabl8a.wklN - Nae 11/21/88F - Fmeale

T - Total

Source: Raw provincial data (Punjab);Directorate of Education, Government of Baluchistan, "Education Statistics," 1986;Nanagement Unit for Study and Training, Goverrment of NWFP: "Educational Yearbook," 1986-87; andEducation and Culture Department, Government of Sind, "Basic Statistics."

- 114 -

Annex 1, Table 19: University Enrollmnt (1965-19W6)

-u--u -uuauuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuinuzaUuUfluUUSflUSZ U aZ UsUsUzu U

University Bachelor Nater N.Phil Ph.D DiptCer Total of Teachers

PunmJb Univerity 4,169 3,83 0 131 596 8,734 336

Nulttan University 653 956 60 18 0 1.687 116

Uahauelpur University 268 875 0 0 0 1,143 117

Sird University 3,779 1,928 37 3 135 5,882 469

Karachi University 4,467 3,950 16 0 1,217 9.650 435

Peshawar University 1,739 1,581 62 31 236 3,649 247

D.I. Khan University 603 486 3 0 1,131 2,223 186

Quetta University 1,291 1,355 11 5 104 2,766 190

Islamabad University 0 885 164 11 0 1,060 172

Nuzaffarabad University 576 194 0 0 0 770 153

Islamia University 831 165 0 8 35 1.039 37

Lahore Engineering 5,409 360 0 0 0 5,769 253

University

Jamshoro Engineer- 3,550 9 0 0 81 3,640 175

ing University

Karachi EngineeringUniversivy 3,758 0 0 0 0 3,758 81

Peshawar Engineer-

ing University 1,391 5 0 0 0 1,396 7.

Faisalabad Agri-

culturat University 2,923 1,167 62 94 0 4,246 339

TandoJea Agri-

cultural University 1,557 203 36 0 0 1,796 184

Peshawar Agri-

Cultural University 416 246 0 0 25 687 120

Total 37,380 18,203 451 301 3,560 59,895 3,686

Source: University Grants Coamission, "Statistics on Higher Education in

Pakistan," 1986.

tabl9.wkl11/21/88

- 115 -

Amex 1, Table 20: Pakistan: Growth in Enrollmnt in University Edication

Type of Type of 1962-83 1903-84 1964-a5 1985-86

Univesity Program T F T F T F T F~~~~~~~..... ....... ............. ........................... ..... ........ ............................... ........ ........ ............. .. ...

Bhoeor 30,431 3,120 31,911 3,329 33,396 3,346 37.376 3,510

Mater 14,258 4,00S 15.024 4,081 16,616 4,599 18,203 4,663

All Univer- N.Phil 239 57 154 54 320 114 451 110

ties Ph.D 281 57 291 59 355 62 301 43Cart/Dip 3,703 612 3,380 295 3,342 286 3,560 475

Totat 48,912 7,851 50,760 7,818 54,031 8,407 S9,891 8,801

Bachelor 16,412 2,912 15,554 3,004 15,471 2,909 18.372 2,991Master 12,819 3951 13,574 4,010 14,954 4,522 16,213 4,573

Gewral P.Phil 218 54 152 54 272 108 353 100

Universities Ph.D 213 57 183 47 260 58 207 40

Cert/Dip 2,960 612 3,033 293 3,236 280 3,454 475

Total 32,622 7,586 32,496 7,408 34,193 7,877 38,599 8,179

Bachelor 10,460 168 I1,934 278 13,016 383 14,108 468

Master 0 0 241 0 289 0 0 0

Engineering M.Phil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Universities Ph.D 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0

Cert/Dip 39 0 34 0 52 0 39 0Total 10,499 168 12,221 278 13,357 383 14,147 468

Bachelor 3,559 40 4,423 47 4,911 54 4,896 51

Master 1,088 54 1,209 71 1,373 77 1,616 90Agriculture h.Phil 21 3 2 0 48 6 98 10

Universities Ph.D 68 0 96 0 95 4 94 3

Cert/Dip 704 0 313 0 54 6 25 0

Total 5,440 97 6,043 118 6,481 147 6,729 154... ... .. .. ....... ........................ ........................ .............................................. ........................................

Source: University Grants Comission, "Statistics on Higher Education in Pakistan," 1987.

tab20.wkl

11/21/88

-116 -Page I of 2

Amex 1. Table 21: Nighlights of Typical University Budgets

Uiniversity of Baluchistan (196M-86) (Rs iltion)...................................

Total expnditure: 44.23Recurrent expenditure: 26.70

Com nnt grwnt: 410.00Ince fr * examination and registration fee: 1.75Inom fro tuition fes: 0.50Inom f rm other university sources (rents,publicatiom. atc.) 1.76

...... .................. :

Total intewmtl Income 4.01

Total internel incom es X of expenditures * 4.01* 9X

4.23

Fees incom as X of expenditure * 2.25

44.23

lariess as X of total expenditure (1986-87) * 32.51------------ * 65X

49.73

SatlrIes as X of Govt. recurring grant (1986-87) * 32.51= 98X

33.30

NWFP UniversIty of EngInnering and Technology (1985-86)....... ............ .... ...... . ... .........

Total expenditure: 21.57Goverraent grant: 18.90

Incom from exaination wnd registration fees: 0.52Income from tultion fees 0.40Income from other university sources 1.89

Total internal income 2.81Total 1nternal incomn as X of expenditures * 2.81

------------ * 13X

21.57

Fe Income * X of expenditure * 0.92------------ 41

21.57

Salaries as X of total expenditure (1986-87) * 15.59......... - 571

27.45

alsarfes as I of rcurrent grant (1966-87) * 15.59--- --- ---- 64X

24.52

- 117 -

Peg 2 of 2Aum 1. Trlob 21: Nilighits of Typical Univesity Ssdeto

Univesity of Peehaumr (195-6) (to illio)...................................

Total I IF Iturw 70.1RSmervwmt grut: 52.U

Inrm trm sominmtien wod registration fes: 5.20Inom from tuition fe: 0.59Inom trfm other univerity owur. 3.0

Tetot l intetet com 9.61

Total interne_t ira *m s o eof pditurw 9.61........ .. u14X

70.72

Fes income as of expnditure 5.79

70.72

Salaries as X of total expwediture (1966-87) * 40.32------------ a 57X

70.72

Salaries as of govt. recurrent grant (1906-67) * 40.32----------- a 67X

59.90

University of Punjab (1965-86)

Totel exediture: 100.33Goverment grant: 70.07

Incom from exmination end registration fees 33.85Income from tuition fee: 2.01Income from othor university sources 4.91

Total internat incom 40.77

Total Internal income as % of expenditure. * 40.77* 41X

100.33

Feo Incame s X of expnditure * 35.85a 36X

100.33

Salaries expenditur, so a X of Govt's recurrent 54.86grent (1967-88) . . 61X

81.00................... ...................................... -.. _........................................ .........

Source: muiget doctunts of: latuchisten's University, 1966-87;NWFP University of Enginering and Technology, 1986-87;Pefhawar University, 1902-88; ondPunjab University. 1962-88. tob2l.wkl

11/21/8

- 118

A,wx 1, Tale 22: Colla. ard University EdicationSt"g-Wise Pass Percenta_s inPubtic Exminrtions (1983-86)

Institution Level/Stage 1983 1964 1965 1966.... ......... ...... .....................................................

Colleges Inter 32X 32X 35X 36X

Bachelor 37X 37X 33X 35X

........................................... ..........................................................

Universities Bachelor 35X 33X 39X 34X

Master 52s 53X 54X 54%

Source: i) University Grants Conruission: "Statistics on HigherEducation in Pakistan", 1987

(ii) Central Bureau of Education, Ministry of EducationGovernment of Pakistan, " Pakistan EducationStatistics", 1986.

tab22.wkl11/21/88

- 119 -

Annex 2

The Enrollment/Finance Proiection Model

1. This model projects enrollments, teacher requirements and associatedrecurrent and development expenditures at primary and secondary levels forboys and girls. The information needed to run the model is as follows:

o base year enrollments by grade and sexo base year dropout and repeater rates by grade and sexo first grade growth rates by year and sexo age-cohort population growth rates by year and sexo student-teacher ratios by yearo annual attrition rate of the teaching forceo annual growth in teacher training capacityo average monthly teacher salaryo average ratio of allowances to salaryo a factor which represents the ratio between expenditures on items

other than books, materials and salaries (e.g. maintenance), andtotal salary expenditures

o per student expenditures on books and materials by yearo number of students per classroomo the relative numbers of classrooms to be replaced each yearo factors for equipment and maintenance per classroomo cost per classroom for boys and girls

An assumption is made that 10% of students attend private school.

2. The model uses standard methodologyl to project:

o gradewise enrollments and numbers of repeaterso participation rates for primary and secondary age cohorts, both

with and without repeaterso participation rates of 9, 12 and 14 year oldso additional teacher requirements and cumulative deficits

3. The model uses Seventh Plan assumptions concerning first grade growthrates in primary and secondary schooling. Population growth rates are basedon the work of the FY88 Pakistan Country Economic Memorandum mission.

4. The model also projects:

o teacher and other staff costs, and costs of allowanceso expenditures on books and materialso construction and equipment costs for new and replaced classroomso maintenance costso annual and cumulative recurrent and development expenditures

1 A factor is included which allows for only one repetition per childin any grade

hkistu: ?ulser Idel huelut/las P nrujectium hu in 3, Yel Ibial bnrllst Iruu hrjeatl is ytk nue) hpu I .14

1kis mdl sane. ael m. rpttltlu bet.,s 1aI ld 2.Smrh bU: hrnllate-flmiu Cmlul,. Cute- U6 '11,r lsouri IUUte pnjet

hop-aet/roetae-AN, Iqleti. nu-lN c lini.

Ise Fu1elpsi. I uru hpt klqt h_tr hist Iout

I 1.6 14.6 11.6 74.' 16.6 14.6I SI.. 6.1 6.1 76.4 11.1 I.63 63.6 1.17 .7 15. 11.6 11.44 6.7 6.6 4.4 61.5 i1.? I.'

I ps I nauk ml 1.4 1.4 .4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 ..4 1.4 6.4 1.4 .1. 5.6 1.4I VW* I put fuel 13.6 13.6 13.6 11.1 13. 13.6 13.6 13.1 13.6 13.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4. 4.6AP. Cikhrt grulmeu) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.6 2.6 3.6AP Cokort gnu rte(fuale) 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.O 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 3.6 1.6 1.6Stut tiut t tle IS U35 3 IS 35 15 15 35 31 35 35 31 2S t J JTeackr IttritiUa ate U.5renth is leck?

Tralsia Caiacty 6.65

WLI O31 M

grades 16M INS 166 1667 166 116 161 1611 161 IN3 1614 161 23 166 116 166 3

1 1,134.666 1,231,626 1,311666 1,364,263 1.461,113 1,574,374 1,672,633 1,777,661 1,166,64 2,667,165 2,132,646 2,266.36 2,466,26 2,566,666 3?16, 3.666,411 3.616,2 1,147,666 2.155,66 66544 1,625,535 1,666,251 1,156,366 1,22.4,46 1.,36,6 1,61,7331 1,414.1K6 1,566,412 1,664,135, 1,764,737 1,6701,4619 111113 1,171 1316 ,14,61113 663,66 176,666 1,656.563 165,614 M64,13 657,667 1,617,263 1,661,13 1,146,665 1,226,566 1,216,615 I,:76,IPA 1,464,311 1,6.64?W 11163441! 1,U616 1,6AM54 742,06 M1366 174.541 13656 664632 61266 656.66 666.55 66642 I.626,ii 1,661,263 1,156,514 1,23,1611 LOO6M33 1.161,163 1.416,31 i.66,65 62,1,66 717.66 162,666 111,152 676,16 763,623 763,657 663,4S 652,113 165,615 662.517 1,622,766 1,666,76 1.,11.6 1.3,114 1.3,633 1,366,161

Total 4,415,666 4,131.626 4,164,111 1,661,111 5,156,611 5.214,216 1,536,421 ,6,17 6,243,663 1,634.622 16,41 7,461,266 7,.244 6,416,66 1,3,464 1,j6,11 16.146.6laostoer 411,361 453,653 456,631 4716,331 464,134 561,451 121,66 542,361 167,432 634,624 674,5644 716,763 WIN, 3,6146 11,613 113,36tp~ 5-6 7,253.601 7,566,655 7,766,565 1,641,531 1,322.164 6,166,666 1.611,357 6,136.4116 6365,641 1,421,464 6,666,3 11,115,46 1RANA6 16,61,111 16.3,3 1133.23330?articipatiu rnte 11.63 "A.4 65.23 64.23 63.23 64.43 6.23 61.33 76.73 13.21 75.63 76.66 61.16 64.3 67. 16.31Farticipatim late miu 62.41 66.43 56.23 56.33 57.43 56.53 66.23 a 62.2 64.3 66.6 6.1.6 7' 14.6 76.63 16.61 63.3

opulatiu Aged 1 1,456,666 1,561,371 I1,113,1 1,666,31 1,UM.P6 1,121,113 1.71.311 1,627,763 1.671,133 1,162,531 1,676,613 2,627,31 2.00.101 MUM416 3,166,M7 1,36,tart. ate of I Tr Old. 46.6 47.63 46.1 116 43.331 41.63 4.1.7 64.63 45.5 47.13 46.6 56.131 12.6 14.3 16.3 56.3Teacher aireqssouu 141,601 142,464 144,66 141.361 156,466 16.211 167,6116 171,361 161,141 212,42? 214,631 W2143 341,673 314.663 M111 316101,Ui.tndekr leg. 8,414 1,161 I,6"6 16,36 Su25.362t 11,563 16,674 21,66 21,34 261 34,161 I.61J 1,113 3.l1w 3,13

hailtu: Prlury broallwat/Vlice ProJactio. imu 2, fabh Ihp It d

nual~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Iae 4

Grades 164 1IIS I5 10I1 IN 11N3 IN056 111 2 1103 1134 11 1m 11 1t 16 NU

1 511.211 141,411 712,110 til,7 1,143,645 1,112,545 1,363,422 1.51,SI0 1.122,131 2,317,412 2.321,421 2,64,11 2,16,6 t,112,341 llU.,tt, 1.13.5I1 2.541,5162 41s5,11 541,111 514,664 65,531 s1,611 64,665 13.65 1,136,162 1,123,512 1,4.113 1,897,7,2 1,341,06 2,213,116 2,sis?t 2,1,264 2. .12 2,66,1123 311,101 421,166 41,248 466,362 511,715 6,55 151,143 515,641 1,163,116 1,141,116 1,12,234 1.586,21 11,111,M 1,561.11 2.,6.S3 23,01,1 226.264 325,666 36856 366,312 311,444 411,317 417,372 553,225 634,632 126,413 636,911 143,113 1,66,735 1 , }241,31 1,49,243 1.,S1 1,76,22 1.64,261s 21,111 3 I,3 323,253 326,115 3514 361,13s 424,345 412,014 65,11 W4,6 713,145 341,111 261 1,5,615 1,311.,16 1,6.0 6 1.3.614

total 2,461,2N6 2,214,461 2,511,254 2,7115,627 3,145,28 3,575,233 4,112,330 4,133,335 5,371,N65 1,117,121 7,121,013 6,16,64 6,341,121 .115.341 U ,i,1 1,111.16 lI,146,Repeaters 222,436 251,112 274,382 364,711 144,713 312,412 456,113 511,1,3 511,117 574,411 7711,13 151U 1 22,512 I,M111, 1M.11,1 1,t212,61top 5-3 ,42,12 1 1, 664R 7,14 1,16 4,52 71,344,5 6 1,63,122 ,1,13,61,112,675 1,436,336 1,172,555 COMM,1,3 1 ,1,115 6,421,636 3,616144 3 u 161 12.u 11 6,tl14artliclpatoa rate 35.32 37.1n 33.52 42.62 41. 51.62 51.42 13.12 .16 1n.52 51.71 5i.i 1 li1. 2t.I 161.22 115.1Aartlecipatlo bte No 31.32 33.42 35 31.12 42.32 46.6 51.3 57.62 64.1U n1.321 13.32 31.8 n6.3 4. 61.3 6n1.

lepatersFo"elatle Igd I 1,231,4#1 1,352,633 1,416,715 1,4,161 n 1,521,124 1,552,122 1,536,535 1,571,255 1,134,511 1,7153511 1,133,664 1,54,22 1,32,66 lUl ? 2,61,64 2.1642Prt. Iat of IS IlrO1 21.5 21.9 221.2 22.02 21.72 24.22 27.12 33.22 33.17 3N1 1.12 Ku 51.1 11. 63.12 6TUcher elrsesta 55,554 11,151 73,63 6366 1612,151 111,211 1342,23 153,117 115,552 2N1,621 223,2 21,652 m1,21 3,126 316,361 316,611id.?fecker 1e. 6,414 11,427 14,255 15,171 25,163 22,134 2t,641 26,7l1 33,656 31,111 J36 36,443 U,m 53.,44 MA3

uRnU loll lU I17 IN lS II inl til m12 UU0 1014 lm m lt UU to no

I 1,ZS5,21t 1,172,412 1,1U44 ,1j 2§4602,111 3,11N,355 3,2,S ,USI sl s IS,11.41 3171,74 n .1 1111 7 41,U2.,r t,ut,su 5,211,14U 111.6 S,'M.= stttNS 6.412suut 2 1,552,1N 1,7H1,IN 1,52t,12 I,t1 N 1,4 1171,14141 2,125s21 2,221,Jl1 2,U41,7N 2,11U,221 2,M1,l11 1,2514,251 I,NS6,SU I.1,1 HtH ,t21,31 4t . I. . 4ttt0 " M3 1473.01 1,41,11,@ 1,53 ,719 1,371.911 1,U2.71F l,G27,212 1,7U4,12 1,,58,979 2,'51,523 2.,#12"o 2,n, 2.9111,40 :fflglu t 31,19150 SA1t.11 3.1.11 1,1,1U. 4 UI t.64 1.071,01# 1,171,111 1,211,153 1,338,1H1 1,212,5U1 11281157s 1.41n11l 1,SU,UI 1,U12,11 1157518 11 ,00,11 1,224530 In 8.1 3t1nl1 It 7s^ ,2 n 1 SAW 8. U1.5 1a5,d 1, 326,5 1, 66,263 16,6s,11 16261,50 1,13#0 11 51,212 1 323510 1.417572 1,5521711 1,716,252 15666 131 161.331 t 41166 6 OM 1866 266

Total ,.2211,42,0 215,10 7 7,31,133 2,54,6 2,166,31 3,536,355 13,336,441 3,11,021.41 U,M44,U 14,6128,21 4,527,156 ,1,144tnl 5,461,1 19,16,36 3.36,1 61,41, t -

bp4aten 1 , 1,X1 1,17,45 73,3135 71 5,12,543 11,2 1,F 113,415,12 M.I4,46 1,612,153 1,17351,512,01,16 21,45,2717 L,41,41 2,126,416 t,..16 J1,3 1 3,615,MTotal aims eeatero 6,114,S5 6,71",0132 1,112,541 1,521,624 1,664 51,U 1,51,266 1U,542,515 115565,136 12,756,526 14u11s,661 316.11,1,3 1,6,M 21117,2 16,114,154 36,tS1t146top 5-3 13,145,301 14,271,511 14,511,375 15,366,356 15,661,566 15,519,578 117,64,132 17,575,254 15,65,222 16,545,61 13,645,664 1655U6,6 20,16.313 2,1421.116 21.111.161 21,155,011Partildatin rate 52.2 52.52 53.62 54.2 55.42 55.42 12.62 66.12 S1.62 15 .62U1 01.5. 66.3 n1s.11 31.31 1010.4Partlelpite late shieua 45.62 41.62 4.62 66.3 53.22 53.62 51.23 S1. 84.22 u62 n , n1.3 t11. 12 5. 11.1 I.3

IhpaterPrivate Scool hroll. a/ 4153443 67,664 7111,3 752,882 591,8 514,71 353,721 1,554,251 1,11,513 1,276,353 1,466,183 1,3686 I1116, I,12, 1,511, 1, 14Total hrticiptie hle 52.82 52.32 52.12 53.1n 55.22 55.3 61.31 66S u1.62 75.12 51.32 HAS 63 34. 31.31 ' 1.11;lteaer irats 206,555 214,154 224,233 231,25u 252,557 215,416 362,262 332,114 365,213 412,253 44,636 43,36 126,5 UT,3n 132, 6215.18W.letcier he. 17,12T 2,7156 24,234 27,155 35,548 43,3 41,522 41,16 15,303 51,466 61,31 6,863 U12,15 52.166 t,#60/o fre loml S.t Sstes 13,426 26,311 21411 22,486 23,612 241673 211,33 27,334 21,711 31,136 31,64 Il,t2 34, 26,U1 3,462Serplts/ficit 141" -3H1 -217 -4117 -11331 -15104 -18165 -24 -2115N -31362 -26 -2" -21516 -2612 -246

Cnlotile tleader ef ite136T/11-1532/s 454,624) -4621111/11-211/2H1 (271,417) -722

ahstu: Prlne hrollae tlfi c Frojectilm _r 2. mS Ihps 3 61I

othly bit Costs (117)

eachers 123Jhlloeas Facor .15Ieaitu Iactor l.USoter staff Slary

faetor 0.043

N COSTS Ill FilC? (is hlil i

1165 II IN? 11 1 til lIlt tilt 1112 11U3 1904 1lS U110 Ollt I iO 3

T aooer Salaries 3645.1 31;1.1 3351.1 3511.1 3127.7 4160.1 4466.5 4100.5 5306.5 5937.2 1548.1 7130.4 16.3 623.2 611. £22.5Olier Staff Salaries 131.1 135.1 142.3 151.6 115.3 174.6 111.3 210.7 231.4 255.3 361.1 0.6 331.1 33.1 m. 31.6llowoes 4U7.0 414.5 517.1 s54.1 53.1 6S1.1 11.3 11.1 43.4 116.1 1u24.5 lIl1.S I256.1 15. 257.6 444.6Sabotal 3651.8 3711.4 3110.6 4251.3 4471.2 1677.0 5356.1 5l77.1 U65.? 7121.4 7154.1 6152.1 2 23.i 111.1 14.? 1i1.2

h1.ser Stestoe has i laterlals 2.0 2.6 2.0 3.1 4.7 7.2 11.6 11.6 25.7 31.3 10.6 0.0 6.0 5.0 .6 5. rises to 4Ipoby 1605

OWitarA e hs W 14.5 15.0 15.1 25.4 41.4 10.1 115.1 (14.1 321.0 552.6 131.6 1514.1 1564.1 t1.4 tlU.T? III:.aterials

thr heai trm 55.1 57.1 5i.1 63.4 ?.J 14.2 42.6 11.1 101.1 115.1 131.6 (.5 114.6 15.1 Its.11 1.Sbtotal 11.5 72.1 75.5 63.1 11".1 143.3 117.1 265.1 421.6 U67.1 153.4 1160.0 (24.6 I(2.6 1411.6 116.6

lOYtL BIl 3,721.4 3,113.5 4,045.3 4,219.1 4,566.3 5,120.3 5,5468.1 ,163.1 6.,65.5 1,716.2 5,117.1 .1,1.5 11,41.3 11,;.1011 11.;14.3 12,114.?Yarly Ierase 3.1 4.72 1.11 1.61 1.1 16.51 11.11 11.51 13.1 14. 0.n1 7.61 .6 6.3 1.6

fIraot shn of:Salaries sd illnue .11 16.11 11.1S 11.11 07.11 17.11 56.41 15.41 13.31 11.42 H.11s 56.11 H.1 56.11. 1.11 56. Isloos 6 bterials 6.41 0.141 6.41 .62 5.12 1.41 2.21 3.3 S.11s 7.01 11.11 11.3 11.1 11.61 (1.161 11.1Othr Ipaitvrn 1.51 (.51 1.51 1.5 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.6 1.61 1.1 1. 1.11 L. 1 1.11

stoal amrUt for 111-1113 25602

Fakista: ?riur brollut/Vlat ce ProJectioss JIM 2. TaIls IhpaI( 6.4

IYON CoSts i lIlt NIIM (tos ILLIWI1

Stasats per Clasaros 400liacast factor 0.15lqsJp.t factor 0.61lolctcsucc Fetor .101Cost per clusro(tboyl 45600Cost per classrooa(girsl still

1UI5 11N 17 1oss 11I1 1u1 1111 1312 1193 13u4 355 36 InS S U66

haber Of Clmssroos(bo,s) 12,3176 121,104 121,513 121,367 131,617 13,436 146l,m1 156.011 161.66 116,24 111,62 111,I01 211,464 224,71 238,16 53,116hlabr Of Clasrom (s(irls 51366 61t,71 6,U641 16,132 8,3311 102,S5 117,01 134,415 13,6f6 115,722 206,142 M23,6N 244,311 32,#3 273,14t1 l3J,kg Clusrosu(boys) 1,226 I,15 21464 2,64 6,571 6,443 1,160 9,760 W,U33 11,033 11,714 12,4516 ,236 4,n06 14,047ke Clusreo(girlI 5,421 6,I05 6111 10,70 13,110 14,133 1I,I11 13,211 22,127 25,171 22,134 1,133 18,S64 I,4S6 14,213lepacsst Cla,sroos(bol) 0,230 6,320 6,44 6,500 6,024 17,34 17,U6 0,233 0,012 0,364 L3s s 6,573 11.255 11.33 12,6Ieplaceset Clasroo(girls) 3,131 3,42 3.032 46 5.120 5.675 1,.121 1,65 7.n6 10,045 1i,s6 12,120 1,IU 13,171 14,68"Ass oluss eqesMh I f,w1 ,4na I'm 156 16 W ,110 13601 15,10 6, 16,042t tl,1" 10,30T 21,014 11,001 I14,41 Ul,6 1,haul Clasroom r"slreiglrs) 6,56 16,341 12,323 15,218 18,305 26,014 23,633 26,065 31,013 35,224 33,6 32,3 31,113 .437 28,3Coustnrctloa Costs(boys) i36 373 3u 415 621 III 7U4 813 864 01I 0T1 1,636 I,161 1,178 I,tCoautnctloo Custs(irIl 5S5 l 7162 "I 1.66U 1,221 1,315 1,561 1,011 2,670 2.661 1.142 1,171 1,06 1,1U ,lqipuat Costs I 16 12 13 17 is 22 24 21 31 'o 3N 3U 2S laiatuace Costs I 10 12 13 17 is 22 24 ' 3U 3U U U S4 21 ,

total bholopeat Couts(p illloas I5 1,663 1,114 1,133 1,135 1,07t 2,262 2.4152 2,735 3.156 3l,l0 3,63 3.132 3,625 l,2eaely larIes 16.3n 1W.1 13.11 23.61 14.61 11.31 11.41 11.01 11.71 -6.1 -6.01 -. 2i -6.3 6.51

7it COS 01 aMull ICATIN 4,121 5,646 5.413 5,111 ,1755 71525 8,365 6,347 1U,525 11,174 12,156 1,511 14,215 14,3 IS,S11.(he Iilllou)

Yearly Ireanse 63 n 5.41 0.21 14.11 1.41 1.21 11.71 12.61 13.61 u6.n 6.61 5.6 4.11 4s.

Total ve ole_t for IIU-I13 l166

16/21/18

Pahita: Primary Sceool hrollHoeat/Iiuce ProJectio bld Ameo 2, ?able 21th Ion proeotllo is grades 1-4

llel4 hrollnet Grolti trojectiou is Seteth Pu) tPoa, I of 4

Ti. sodel " aun oily oe repetitint betwee grad t an 2.Sam bte: brollmets-Plaaimg Cmisosod , Costs- SUm Third Priary do ati proJect

Rrop-oots/repeaters-DIM, Popslaion groth-VYT U misaime

hIs leulegrades Prosote bpeat Dropot tromete epeat Dropot

1 100.6 100.02 MA MAo 1 10011.0 1.13 100.0~~M 900.0

I grade I growth ule 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 51.4 5.4 .4 5.4 5.42 gnrde 1 grostih esle 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 4.0 4.1 4.t 4.t 4.1Age Cohort growth(ule) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 314 3.2 2.1 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.6 21. 2.1 2.0Age Cohort groeti rate(faulel 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.S 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 121 2.0 2. Staeat teacher latio 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 i5 35 35 35 35 >Teacher Ittrit,lm late 0.15Growth is teacer

traitmg Capcity 0.I5

grades 1904 1915 1016 I00 1000 100S 1000 l901 1002 1093 1004 IHS IlN 1007 1000 1m 2U

1 1,1341,00 1,231,120 1,217,405 1,307,.51 1,441.411 1,510,244 1,011,203 1,6171753 1,n71,001 1,174,151 1,070,100 2,002,013 2,105,311 2,313,0u2 2,430,001 2t5T1,505 2,700t 40T2 1,617,000 1,105,606 1,231,020 1.201,405 1,307,560 1,441,400 1,511,244 1.611,2$3 1,617.753 1, 1.1.01 1,174,151 1, 76, I0 2,002,013 2,10,311 2,313,42 2,400.00 2,576,6053 03,110 070,6 1,105,00 1,2131,02 1,21,405 1,301,50 1,441,400 1,510,244 1,611,283 1,007,153 1,717,101 1,014,01 1, 176,1 " 2,02,113 2,151301 2.313,042 2,430,0054 742,110 013,000 070,110 1,105,010 1,231,120 1,207,415 1,307,560 1,441,400 1,510,244 1,011,203 1,007,753 1,770,111 1,014,051 1,076,110 2,102,013 2,105,301 2.313,U25 020,000 17,11,6 013,111 070,000 1,105,000 1,23t,020 1,207,415 1,361,561 1,441u,40 I.51,244 1,01$,203 1,166,153 1,176,011 11,14.5l l ,1 2,002,013 2,105,301

Total 4,455,000 4.035.020 5,515,515 6,011,0.5 6,532,463 6,656,721 7,221,100 7,617,248 0,020,s57 8,462,122 8,011,077 1,.41,107 0.00,345 10,443,316 11,4471311 11,661,136 12.221,2Ieeaters I I I I I I I I I I I I 6 I I IPor 5-0 1,253,106 T.SU,0s55 7,760,505 0.041,531 8,322,064 0,005,051 6,661,357 0,130,010 0,305,601 9,620,604 0,0M0 16,130,040 1,00,500 10,670,022 16,104, 3U 11,233,023Participation rate 10.02 13.52 7.12 £1.21 01.42 14.02 05.62 07 00.2 02.6 n 05.12 07.72 10n.4 163.21 106.02 1Un.2nParticipation late eiase 60.02 73.52 10.12 61.22 02.42 64.0 6 5.6 17. n 0 n HASn 0 t2s 172 n51 0 10 0.4 103.22 10. 1.0n

RepetenPopalatios lged 0 1.45I ,606 1,511,371 1,553,016 1,001,300 1,664,517 1,721,103 1,716,271 1,027,703 1,177,133 1,025,030 1,071,013 2,027,300 2,0,102 2,134,164 2,10,673 24,065Part. ate of I Tr Olds 40.42 54.22 63.02 714.3 74.02 75.42 77. 0 70.02 000 3.12 65.42 17.12 0.11 6.62 05 .s u rnTecker lelre,eUlt 141,001 151,54 113,431 106,042 105,05 20U.415 2171.31 220,300 241,115 254,131 2u1,512 203,00 206,361 314,405 331,476 34u,37AdiTeacher eq. 23,63 23,724 21,603 10,50 26,374 21,474 22.634 23,056 25,145 26,502 27,034 n, 442 31,132 32,700 34,44

Mi1sta: ?rlsri larlsetIIac rjci boot 2.ta 2hpg I d 4

unsu nIrir 11I4 1US 1U I1 11N 1N3 Im 11 1112 1311 1114 13 It1 11

1 511,I11 141,41H 12U,712 111,114 1254,44 1,N45,11 1,111,132 1,53,, I,II1 1,165,121 1,132 2,111,216 2, 3m,m 2.324, U41 tWIN 1,541,l1 2,It6t132 5,611I 541,666 641,4H1 24,U12 611,7114 125,414 1,245786 1,11,8 1,335,34 1, 16l 1,N,I l,120,1122 1,It1t26 2, Lu4KY 2,3U441 2,44113 2 ".1464I 36,116 411,666 141,666 641,466 124,762 11,114 015,414 1,645,166 1.111,783 1,335,364 I,5S1,261 1.165,1, 13,M LI11TS 2.l64.361 1,64,641 2.441.1184 321.616 83,1,66 431,660 541.611 41.401 124,162 111,004 W25AR 1.645,766 1.111,731 1,33534 .51, 1 .M101 11.13 1,126 .11M 2.111.216 21,34,261 1,34641%5 26,111 3112 11 , 16,611 43 S1,61 541,611 641,41H 1241,42 13,11H4 125.414 1645,111 1,14 i1til 1,231.364 1.616.06 1, 11213 11 3 I.21 L, t 1111 2.341,N

Totl 2,646,21 2,214,403 2,t1S,112 2,163,116 3,651,661 4,156,446 4,U11S1,3 5,3S1,365 5,911,323 6,116,415 1,.51,12 1,S63,511 1.62,22 11,41,H12 11.1?2,115 11,712W 12,264,460hpeater 6 I I 6 6 I I I 6 I I I I 6 I Ipop 5-1 6,412.666 616,114 1,64 ,01.16 1,344,121 1.631,122 1,1313,12 1.132,161 1.436,331 3.612,55 1,115.311 1,165.111 1,421.136 3,665,444 3.4563W 16,13.122 10,122,614?artlcipetl rate 35.3 4.11 44.11 41.11 54.41 53.41 14.1 11.1t 7l.t 65.31 P." 1. m. 11282, 115.2 116i.participtl.e hteli 35.31 46.11 44.31 4.11 54.41 51.41 14.11 11.1n 1.11 6.3 1 14.1 1 1 1t6.1 I1.3 115.I 116.6

ukpetrsPOP.ltie m SI 1,216,436 1,352,133 1,411,156 1,461,166 1,521,124 1,562,12 1,636,55 1,611,261 1,134,511 1,113,111 1,333,114 1.364,S311 1.1311,2 2Ulm1 2,64,1.64 2,164,462art. lt of Ir 0Il 23.1 21.11 31.61 361 42.61 41.1s 53.6 14.11 63.31 66.31 12." 361 W.6 .41u 16.4 [1-1.

Teucr Iremn 1,55 77,44 )S,317 114,333 111,HI 114,114 151,1S 111,252 11,U12 21.1171 241,243 221,11 211,11 1,215 11 ,13 3.1UdAdIacr hi. 15,1517 1U1.15 I45 13,631 21,131 24.155 27.215 31,143 3KM5 33,34 36,365 371,66 X,1 3I1,64 U,U,34

TOTAL hism"MTSgraesn 1165 l6 1n? 111 11 16 11 1112 1113 1114 15 16 Il no

1 1.165,211 1,612,420 2,022,211 2,111,563 2,36HZ2 2,565,133 2.131,621 3.623,116 3,218115 3,586.011 3.112,111 4,266,183 4,M.1 4,10,3 4.016, ,14 1.111,616 1,36.161 1,552,106 1.136,11 1,112,421 2,022,211 1,113,503 2,366.162 2,565.n 2, 121 3A,32.116 3,217,152 3,580,171 3,2,101 4,20,101 4,1 1 4.113 6,66634 5,111.116

3 1,213,660 1,416,10 1,313.100 1,112.423 2,322,217 2,116,563 2,316.812 2,s565.13 2,13,121 3,023,116 3,261,152 3.56,611 3,i2,1 4.,1l 4.45s6,1 4,6.63 4.164 1,316,636 1,1171,1 1,416.11,136,300 1,112,426 2,322,211 2,1MU5M3 2,6,U2 2,55,61 2,763,121 3.023,116 3.217,352 3,566,311 3.112,101 3.363,119 4,458,151 6.113,635 31,3 I,3,m 1,110, 0 11,41,306 1,1361,60 1,612,421 2,122,211 2,116,53 2,366,862 2,565,033 2,163,121 3,,23,11 3,12,151 3,166,31? 2,161.661 4,2,1111 4,416.161

................................................................---...-----.-..--..----...-----.----.-.-.---.-----.------.-----.----.-.---...----..---.--................... ----*----^6-o- - ---*-- --- Total 1,221,426 3.225,311 3,233,211 1,114.143 11.613,113 11.123,114 12,024,113 14,025,112 15,233.011 HA,MM1 11,654,221 11..T 3111,n1006 n.,113,64 3,314,162 24.02.16peuten I I I I I I I I 6 I I I I I I I.tal siaum bputers 1,221.423 6.225.611 1,233.261 10,13,143 11,313,113 11,323,T14 12,124,13 14,325,112 15,231,1 164,511,353 11,654,221 l,148,861 30,611.1 22,1116.4 23,264,662 2 4,12,166

pop S-1 13,145.1N 14,211,511 14,11,215 15,36,6,31 11,,111,2 16,511,516 11,164,032 11,515,254 18,351,222 1t6,45,161 11,45,664 11,156,1 .011 11.61,16 211. M 11,161.61Ihrticipetn rate 52.61 5s1.1 62.31 6. 6. 12.31 15.11 11.31 84.41 614 14.1S H.11 n 62.11 11 113.4l 112Alatlclptepat bte smI U5.4 51.62 6. U.22 3. 12.21 15.11 11.61 64.4 63.41 n. ". 1u.s1 I.5 11.6 112.1t

hputenFriat ScOl hroll. UI 122,642 s22.51, s 123,26 1.016,414 1.11,311: 1.112,11? 1,2,461 1,462.501 I,523.1 1,611,116 1,,423 1,3,061 2.11,11 2,211.1 2,336.416 2.443,211Toual Futlcipatice lite 51.3 33.42 66.52 72.82 15.11 11.61 13.32 31.31 12.61 101.1 164.31 111.61 114.31 U1S. 121.6 122.6Teacer girm1t 216,s55 235,026 213.11 211.11 314,662 34.61 31,215 463,144 435,663 413,630 15,65 15,62 50,341 3,1 1 6 n."jdItuee r lo. 33.163 4,533 01.356 36,235 41JSS1 45,623 4,321 4,7103 1,1ns W,ll A,6 V,62 61,3 86311 SOOR from orml ?.T. Ustem 11,426 20.311 21,411 22,463 23,112 24,103 26,333 21,334 23,1I6 33,11 32.643 23.225 H,11 #.63 M2A.Senrplslefict -11n1 -21141 -1I141 -1514t -I1233 -2U3 -2381 -2n73 -31211 -3575 -3I1S6 4411 -221 -23161 -36

C_mmtie tuear blicil1913110-1912113 31.5519) -312116?IHt-2066/21 343.6S1422 -12I

histun: Priunr broll&IemtS/ium fJetio u James.u2 l M IeI

hthlv hit Coto (1016)

bcter 1230£lleames Factr 6.1bueitAre FItor I,15Otis Staff Slalry

I tor I.U43

ff631? CtOSS 116 IN I l s 31 llI1o)

tMi I8 1lot 1i56 3ls 160 1311 1312 1313 1604 im 1m 0to lo lo

teacur Salaries 3114.1 3461.1 3113.2 4214.1 4644.4 5126.4 5416.5 5114.1 64215 i6 .I0 1 613.7 2114 6 62. 3s3.I 1 061.6 l6 t.OtUer tatff Slaries 131.1 141.2 1U761 114.?7 1H.7 211.2 234.4 254.3I 16. . 321.4 A 4 I m. 4.1 44.2 444.1Sllesa 41.6 542.S 1 666.2 671.3 S 1.6 766.7 652.? 125.4 1665.4 1613.? 1111.2 12K6 It3?? I 163.4 I43 I616.6hbttal 3656.8 460. 46716.4 5151.4 5570.? 6631.3 1537.1 71614. 73U. 3 I835.1 1132.3 0616.0 II66. 11211. 1133. 1$6.1

IPnr Stwaesta hbob a terials 2.0 2.6 2.6 3.1 4.1 1.2 11.0 16.0 25.? 31.3 6.6 6. 60.6 1 .0.0 0.6 rims to pel oby11135Ispint e 14.5 16.5 16.5 31.2 51.6 65.4 141.6 235.2 31.0 6M.? I 3U 118.S 132S.3 1306.6 1408.? 13.0

htorlalsOthr kpditre 55.1 62.? 71.3 71.7 14.3 11.6 111.2 I1.3 121.5 13.5 153.2 8U6 I It 86.1 866.0 361.3

etetl 6. 13.1 11.1 10.1 135.1 177.2 241.1 345.1 512.5 716.2 12U.5 13*4.1 1421.5 1 S11.6 t1622 1617.4

llat m nlt 3,721.4 4J221. 4,1756.2 5,260.3 5,11. 6,2001.5 1,171. 7,431.1 1,2210. 1.171.3 16,138.1 11,163.0 11,661.0 11.13.2 13U4S5.6 14666.5Tarlp Irtea 13.# 12.21 16.51 6.52 06 1.2U 6.1S 16.52 11.62 13.1n 6.62 1.1U 6.S 1.52 4.12

hent Share of:Slaries a lloeoues 361 16.12 16.82 3T." 6.61 11.12 06.42 15.42 13.6 11.42 U.12 U.11 H. .s 66.12 U. 11 is U.I

Sh a hbtrials 6.4n 6.41 6.42 6.62 6.1 1.42 2.22 3.3 5 1.6 1." IL. 18.31 81.0 11. 11 8.1. 0Ohr bpeit.res 1.52 1.2 1.5I 1.2 8. ISt 8.52 1.52 1. St 1.62 .6 1.n1 8.12 1.12 1.1 ,1 1. 12

*bl Ieurrrut tfr 131-1133 31335

Pkiata lriawi hrlluot/fIIau he ? toiokwlms bmI,iIhp 4 o 4

o ons xIt ismenc 1lb NILLX)

.bit Pt Clmro 4tIte_wt pattbr I ISUpiput fattor 6.01blatfeem factor 3.31Cut rr cln rele4bou 453Cut Per elusrolgirls) 5NH1

1M6 IN3 137 1oll 1ll 1531 3551 1932 1513 11114 1311 INS Inv 1m 1o 36

br of Clouroes(bosl 122,371 137UtU1 151,152 163,212 171,411 111,615 131,431 236,714 211,513 222,171 235.,11 247.1K 21 271, 116,u 366,1.hr of Clasroce(girls) 57,363 67,755 71,633 11,231 13,3111 117,421 132,614 141,133 163,424 111,451 216,328 13,143 66113 211,3 264,121 211,11

be elmrseuslboys) 14,512 13,114 1 1 ,513 3,13 1,257 1,1156 13,263 16,631 11,424 12,U41 12111 13,1U 6 14,6 HIM 116u62b Clurousgirls) 36,135 11,325 12,212 12,321 13,553 15,265 11,241 13,431 22.025 24,6 21.225 21B1A HIM ls,5 1,I13Ihplacem t Claserosl(obso 6,314 7,56 3,I1 3,571 1,634 1,522 15,631 13,573 11.143 11 t,I 12,385 11,6M 131.1 14,1H 2 161,25Iplacumeat Cluaroeslgrls) 3,336 3,354 41565 5,US 5,71 6,634 7,417 3.471 U,51 16,611 11,7l 6 Il3US 1130 1,41 11I331hu l Claurou i"tireboys) 21,407 21,452 1V.121 13.1?7 18.231 It,271 2J,31 21,411 22,513 23,712 25,311 U3, 1 27,6 2J332 3,145hie! Clasroom r.slgred(girIs) 13,712 15,273 16,776 17,n15 13,373 21,633 24,746 27,113 31,53 35,1n 31,233 34,66 33,I ",2 21,24Cesretm i Cotalboys) 36 65 6 ffS 16I 123 6l6 314 f64 1,016 1,313 1,126 3,366 1,251 1,321 1,323Cstr.ti. Costs(girls) 1133 361 3ol 1,51 1,143 1,212 1,466 1,65 1,1l4 2,111 2,17 2J11l 131,1 I,f6 1,6Hop _t Cut if 11 if 11 f2 22 214 2 26 32 J2 32 22 31 3blatm aCuts 3 11 UI 1o 21 22 24 2I 29 32 32 n n 31 6

ToUal 3nlemt Cosalbs IIIIoamJ 1,U12 1,134 I',51 1315 2,036 2,253 2,422 2,368 2,333 3,241 3,216 3.216 1.26 I,3I 3,163erwly Iease 5.11 6.6S -4.02 3.2S 5.32 5I.1n 3U.112 16.22 13.2 6.161.1 -1.n -2.21 -3.

MlAL COm CJ "31ly lChlT0 6,652 6,633 7,315 7,544 1,214 5,32 3,362 1U,6I8 12,1N1 13,611 1446, 16 ,5l1? 16,664 17,133lp lilliou)

Tear Ireae1 7.72 5.12 3.n 3.31 3.52 36.41 13.22 12.65 6.3 1.12 4.n 3.11 3,

otal h1 elest for INIJ1-113 1i4n

.ue.il----------~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~6,33

Pakistea: Scodary Sebol (grades 6-10) IrollaSntlllaace Projectolo d el Awel 2, Tlile I(sin Irrollmut groUth Projectlces Is Seventk Plul Page 1 of 4

iource Data: Irollmts-Plusing Conisslos, Costs- lission stintes of school constructim costs ad nedian teacher lsIary aid ,dlosucea

Vale fIulegrd Proreesion lte fregremlni late

7~~~~~~' 0. .11 6.1 6.3

* 6~~ ~ ~~.7 6.7

I gre 6 go uth 11.1 13.6 1.1 11. 13.6 13.6 13. 13. .6 13. 13.0 13 13. 1.1 1.1O grad Igret mI 6.6 3.6 36 16 1.6 1. 1. 3. 3.6 1. 0. 6.6 0. 0. 6.I grad I grth foule 11.1 11.6 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.6 11.1 11.6 11.1 11.1 11.6 11.6 11.1 11.6 11.1top emu lte 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.$ 3.6 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.6stuntt utr latio 15 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 3I 35 35teaer Attritin labte 1.5ror In leaherTrailin Copeltty 6.5

grad 1364 IN5 II INT 116 II II II 1112 133 1134 IS 13"1 13 16 1H1m 26

6 537,261 516,666 635,126 665,631 414,611 66,61 664,632 333,263 1,667,166 1,681,405 1,175,575 1,261,621 1.371,111 1,411,s6 1,563,1 I1,,U65 1,I66,4667 43,3461 475,115 521,159 553,116 666,513 5S7,516 116,126 165,121 526,25 634,14? 355,116 1,541,331 1,12I1,71 1,211,621 1,114,312 1,61I,3 I3 3,6 5 312,346 365,656 430,533 471,316 511,116 546,113 53,7158 641,361 612,566 714,114 611,1655 12,483 142,212 1,611,615 1,666,67 1,17,614 1,1,164I 256,55 216,116 303,146 SU,422 36,III1312,515 421,161 461,415 566,335 554,152 616,625 651,38 111,142 162,2 162,631 1,145 1,6,It 265,226 213,666 223,612 243,143 25,632 216,515 314,555 343,224 314,115 467,155 444,466 454,481 52,66 5,622 521,425 I,M 5,1

Total (6-5) 1,347,1,6 1,466,146 1,5S1,T1s 1,121,625 1,560, 11 2,1,46 2,1, 2,341,114 2,525,155 2,731,656 2,640,546 S,165,563 3,446,343 3,715,511 4,612,111 4,132,542 4,0I,5SUTotl (3-16) 411,z11 431,116 525,212 513,511 625,113 561,4 142,711 563,643 562,511 361,636 1,641,511 1,142,571 1,214,136 1,351,652 I,48,65 1,513,26 1,7,61?Total 1,119651 1,652,155 2,113,111 2,264,56 2,111,H3 2,5681,57 2,931,111 3,151,603 3,411,26 3,662,312 3,315,151 4,325,366 4,56S,616 S,673,42S 5,412,157 5,47,11 5,436,6, 7Fop 16-14 6,614,666 5,265,162 5,562,904 6,117,434 6,331,16 1 1 ,66,11 7,436,654 1,726,256 0,112,616 6,314,132 6,523,237 6,555,541 6,116,311 6 , 6,15,31 6,6,5Pop 16-12 3,556,46 3,71117,Ml 3,361,714 4,031,460 4,163,466 4,36161,0 4,463,433 4,632,156 4,567,246 4,665,31 5,177,542 5,3111,62 5,4u5,M 5,CU,54 5,11,56 5,626,711iddie ol eF1 46.02 42.02 44.11 46.1S 41.2n 51.41 52.51 54.61 55.51 5.11 61.51 n4.12 586 11.41 75.11 15.3kPop 13-14 2,431,616 2,516,641 2,61,13 2,656,674 2,115,644 2,111,246 2,175,522 3616 3,214,'36 3,325,613 3,451,665 3,546,616 3,44, 141 3,164,362 3,541,132 3 ,134igh School n 26.21 26.11 22.11 23.31 24.61 25. n 21.22 2l.6 36.61 31.51 33.12 5.1 .31. n2 33.11 41. n 14.51

PopulatIon Ige 12 1,211,616 1,256,121 1,3N,556 1,3113,41 1,311,122 1,433,626 1,451,811 1,544,156 1,612,415 1,662,666 1,725,417 1,173,311 1,122,174 1,172,111 1,623,6U5 1,1 1,551Part. bte of 12 Tr Olds 32.51 34.U2 36.22 37.62 31.61 41.41 43.11 44.0 46.7 n 46.6n 56.61 53.11 si.ni 5.1 61.n1 14.3PopulatIon Age 14 1,216,616 1,256,626 1,36,550 1,343,461 1,357,122 1,433,626 1,467,111 1,544,656 1,662,415 1,6U2,356 1,725,547 1,713,316 1,122,674 1,612,111 1,123,6U5 1,616,551Part. bte of 14 I Olds 17.51 17.71 1 1.171 26.02 22.01 23.11 24.22 25.41 26.171 20.11 2. 31.61 33.11 35.6n 371.1Teacher lequrents 55,n13 66,317 65,556 16,66 716,25 53,165 6,6I 3,465 165,514 114,236 1236,66 133,56 144,655 155,963 16,611 163,372Addlener la. 1,366 5,163 5,67 9,145 16,162 11,624 11,335 12,023 13,062 15,141 11,443 11,161 11,232 26,625 22,556O0/ fro borml I.? Syste 1,177 5,226 5,417 5,761 6,556 6,352 6,676 1,663 7,353 7,721 5,107 6,512 6,635 6,385Surplsi/lefit (3,216) (3,4161 (3,176 (4,4216) (4,1974 (5,513) (1.253) (6,10) (7,716) (1,621 (6,t554) (11726) (11,117) 113,1655Culative leacber lficita

(1936-133) 116,773)(1314-2666) l(5,7306

(IN -21166 (67,503)

Pakistan Sm a Sdar ol hIo r llmt/niuc ProjcUtm km 2, Iall 3

nmued ISU l" ISU In? Ila t U l IS ", tn. 1"21"111 Im l l S Ito in I m

6 202,221 225416 254,131 2MA,I 2.33 31,623 415,411 46,413 S1,112 13,333 WStt 165,313 64,n12 1,u3 1,14115 1.241.111 1,411,1t7 161,711 IO,1 136,341 221,12 254,115 233 323,133 361,156 416,135 461,327 521,31 133,4 nt3,611 113,33 361,371 061.13, 1,113.13t3 I3,U 3 14,331 163I64 132,441 2,16U 232,3 2353 211,476 36,143 311,4 421223 43162 543,n,1 616,331 su,644 13,4 m3.6315 65,24 136,251 111,23 123,511 131,161 12,161 133,121 131,53n 23.318 231,636 251,443 23,612 315,664 3661,21 3,3 432,322 413.6611 7,11,1 16,70 IS,33 3,35I 1,133 111,236 121,64S 143,214 111.1 16t,I31 1315,3 211.4154 241U,37 #6, 2.3 333,111 3lI,42

Total (6-6) 411,363 156,16m 611,162 612,222 162,211 633.63 633,636 1,121,650 3,215,315 1,441,314 1,626,526 1,140,235 2,61,446 2,343,133 2,6,6 3,66,464 3,,133total (6-16) 11,423 333,16 13623 2I3,6 2 U 243,4 23441 21"6 33n,753 361,3 467,521 452,43 s162I, 557,3" 66,61 , t62,233 64,mTotal 611,466 731,36 11,641 136,133 1,S214155 1,152,345 1,2,153t 1,413,463 1,642,531 1,646,664 2,66,174 2,342,341 2,63U,363 2,Ul ,441 3,141,6 6 I12, 4,2361561hp 11-14 5,441,6 5,4410, 54 1,441,33 5, 441, 5,UI,1H 5,4410,3 5,441,366111 5,I443 S 11 I441, 5,44U,l 1,441,36 5,441S 3 UI4 33 I,4431 1,441,3 1,441,UIHPOP 16-12 31,214,630 3,234,330 3,264,633 3,264,666 3,264,633 3,264,613 3,264,666 3,2614,63 3,264,663 3,264,631 3,264,6166 3,264,13 3264,66 3,34,330 3,264,313 1,264,60liddle 11ho2 1 2 161 36.31 21.21 24.61 21.1S 33.61 34.61 33.31 4.31% 43.31 56.41 I2.111 1. 31.3 61.61 113.1,FOP 13-14 2,316,416 2,116,466 2,313,41 2,176,436 2,16,466 2,116,41 2,116,46 2,136,41 2,116,43 2,31, 2,176,466 2,116,46 2,116,4 2,116W 2,116,6 2,16,46ligk Sool 61 3.31 3.61 33.61 31.11 12.31 137 35.21 I63 361 26.61 23.11 21.61 23.41 It." 3Is1 s WFoplatios AgW 12 1,36,26 1,63,266 ,63,2H 1,36,26 13,6,26 1,66,266 1,636,266 3,663,2#3 1,,26 61,2 1,663,266 1,331,236 1,666,266 I3,33,31 I,3,266 3,666,266Fart. ahb 3 12 If014ds311a 35.1 36.61 3I61 21.41 24.21 213 361 aA 36.411 4n4.1 u.43 6. 6431 12s1 6211.uoplatlo, Age 14 1,613,261 1,666,236 1,653,266 1,66 21 3,633,266 1,665,261 3,666,266 13,635216 1i,11,21e 3,H63,26; 3,33,266 1,31,23 3, 13,2 1666,21 ,31,211 1 311,11t30

Fart. late of 141T Olds 7.41 1.31 5.11 .61 s6n 11.31 33.21 14.61 36.21 161 26.61 22.21 24.61 21 311U 3U n1Tacher R"lruent 26,133 23,313 2,03 21,253 32,124 31,653 14,661 46,623 52,626 53,414 66,124 1S,331 64,33 ,45 m,s16 121,661U.Teacher S. 3,35 3INt 4,556 5,126 5,s73 6,4I 7,311 6,237 1,215 16,443 11,1 13,24 14,333 36,136 16,31/? from forml T.T SpsteU 2,664 2,T76 2,33 3,664 3,236 3,463 3,51 3,714 3,6 4,133 4,33 46H 4,7t4 1,62

serpln/lfiit (1,321) (1,753) (2.133) (2,63) (3,261) (3,16) (4,667) (5,52) 61,561) (1,621) (6,Ml (11,116) (12,311) (13,2)Cuulatl e Tdeaer hficite a

(3634-233) (13,466) '(1663-233) III3,NI)

grades 1364 I6 16 16 IN5 1NS Im 1n1 1632 3133 3334 315 333 I1 133 13 23

6 131,426 63 6 M,6 613,639 3666,141 1,31,61 1,2,46 13,42,62T 1,136,366 I3,63,664 1,652,836 2,634,164 2,236,362 2,461,166 2,13,111 2,1,225 3,2M,67 sn6IN 652,36 N 1l ju t1l,l1 351,521 N3,8 12 3,36,251 1,121,686 1,231,66 3,1351,473 3,433,667 1,633,233 3,733,354 1,611,13 2,11,452 2,331,142 2,611,1218 511612 545,241 54,227 613,623 713,252 712,786 351,611 135,113 1,123,114 3,127,311 1,231,63 3,317,511 13,41,313 3,636.33 1,7,22 1,1,626 2,11 5,19 361,136 373,31 414,417 453,143 437,261 544,762 566,334 653,327 136,533 765,362 U66,466 143,633 3,333,666 1,ln,316 243,636 I,U3,45 1,462,66613 211,406 214,566 366,633 331,536 336,111 45,5145 443,133 4316,46 533,135 534,276 649,366 761,144 716,4$ 343,54 124,62 1,614,667 1,113,61

total (6-6) 1,146,646 2,633,611 2,262,443 2,413,251 2,643,322 2,631,33 3,366,615 3,416,616 3,664,336 4,172,226 4,515,366 5,125,7313 ,511,11 6,066,31 6,3*s311 1,334,236 ,rl V2Total (1-11) 642,136 612,326 122,433 16,441 6616 141,1 1,646.161 1,143,33 1,243,646 1,361,457 3,566,353 1,644,33 1,663,314 3,676,461 2,136,155 2,315,436 2,16,53Total 2,411,136 2,634,616 2,124,331 3,264,613 3,561,151 3,341,233 4,261,113 1,616,466 5,613,116 5,541,616 6,6169,25 6,616,123 1,322,682 6,641,663 6,334,646 6,166,12 16,767.51Pop 16-12 6,921,3,1 6 1,643,63 7,166,364 7,265,666 1,426,666 1,565,466 7,721,633 1,616,753 ,1 871,641 6,2513,1 1,442,142 3,584,525 5,136,322 6,613,344 6,635,563 6,364,331liddle ecbool n 23.11 31.31 33.11 36.21 3.31 41.U1 44.91 46.21 5I.1 511 .51 U n U4.31 66.13 U7.n1 is61.21 57.6Pop 13-14 4,634,116 4,614,443 4,111,536 4,663,314 4,352,144 5,643,646 5,152,022 5,264,5s 6 5,381,236 5,562,313 5,26,335 5,123,636 5,626,5s2 1,626,12 6,623,3232 6,326534figh School U 34.61 35.41 36.61 31.11 33.21 26.11 22.31 23.n1 25.41 27.31 23.21 33.51 34.n1 X. 31.41 42.i1oplatioo Aged 12 2,311,1N 2,341,226 2,33,16,6 2,431,61 2,416,122 2,521,121 2,576,111 2,632,256 2,666,615 2,751,116 2,1164,47 2,661,56 1 2,316,274 2,#1,1311 3,13,566 3,364,767

Part. ate of 121r Olds 23.61 25.31 21.41 21.41 33.61 34. 36.41 33.11 41. 451.1 46.21 52.19 5,6.2 66A 61.7 T1.31Poplatioa Ae 14 2,317,111 2,341,221 2,318,167 2,431,617 2,4176,322 2,521,121 2,516,011 2,632,251 111,615 2,751,1u 2,614,141 26,6,536 2,311,214 2,11,331 3,111,166 3,364,761Part. bat of 14 r 01ld 32.61 13.31 14.11 35.21 36.41 31.61 13.91 26.31 23.11 23.31 24.31 26.61 21.61 33.21 33.n #361teacher leoeireasts 16,13 63,516 11,563 111,227 363,149 120,216 131,721 144,334 15,334 173,614 1310,532 266,25 221,111 252,4124 277,423 35,11ldd1teacher let. 13,712 12,172 131243 11,533 15,955 1,t523 13,252 21,36I 23,266 25,513 26,143 11,14 34,145 317,121 41,46o/n fro for"al r.? Stes 5,321 5,514 5,374 6,366 6,416 6,500 t1,4 T,4191 7,172 6,26S 11673 1 113 I'S 16,647Serpls/Deficlt (6,I44) (1641111 (8659 (,67) (3 31 1,46 (12,452) (14,626) (15,16t) (17,t21 (36,61) (22,325) (25,132) (26.652) (31,411)Caalati.t teaer beficit.f11m-366) (31,141) -12n1(1911-2166) (223,121) -226

Iw""

l"ll t.--i- A n lU11S 5ll u' sI UNI U's Sil *t ll l Stll it 11Si Sill tosS IS t tttl *e; ALinz

('urn;.1 q)Hill 3ISS'I 11'll mlou Sill los' Hill 5111 III' 311 salt LLt't Ltlt 6111 61t *ImU uIe0l AO gm0 nII

USll Ull itill it'll il WIl UNl 6U1 51l U56 U's u'1 Sit Nil m lJN £lJsa ll lt slit till SIt,t 'iii tIll Nlt' lIVE 1163 LIll NLS' t I Ut'l Nill (umuiE" INq03804 i S 1n n o f t u n t It U I I It of 31 SI tlU 15En ft u 6 31 U it n3 tt it II IT II Si &I elm ),lS1ilflilZ 111 tall KIll I'I l6t'l lI'I 11'I tN US INt l 19 Ul Nl VIIPuI"M I013l1ui3lstil it,: SZ' *'Z tIl t"li US'I till Hliil Ril'l 1l'6 CPS IS5 2I oil (S*TPl')'1"' 6011nalsnsal "ISl til ml' IU'; III'S Sli iSlt ISI't 161i 1ff lSLt salt 31stl t'Il (P Urq)pa. 1 in'1tthl Nl'l Ulll Si'SI U31111 SItul Hillil Nll 36t'1 ISI's 11'L in'1 31t'l tll' ll (St'5 lmIlpSilSk 'U" 1 m l2 Inum u6 lit lis m u is SII U U 9t ZlU lit It i lit "I it: (")guous113 luNdIii6l't t'l Uill S'I l Sil Hill still tUl I ISS l 311 231 11 lit lit (Onte)bmu31 lhomlId'ffa l Il 0111 Ifil 613S lI'lt ift l't tUS't 1322 6alt 3i1' 1313 1113 tSill (1111IP MUMVID inIlt'll lSSN'U "SIt Ul'tl :Stt1 Ul'll $#I'll Utll lit'l tK'l ill's $9t9 lit's lit's $11 181Pl 0- l q fill" U111211 liL mIln' Ul'H tt1t1131 U111 Siftit fillip tU'U1 69111 mO3lt IH'lt3 161it itC'l I36tt (0ItPn1. "3 ;o nq.Ni'lI Nil all mlNt Willi t"111 tIlllI 1661l 3661 1661 U 6" 6nle SKi tU'IS l INlMM11u lo NSq6

m "It out LUI WII lut will cui RII fill Ull Ull ml U1[ ml W~~~~Nil21 SIPIIJNZIIIOfli5U0

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. .. .. . .. .. ....

"lift jJa1; i InaNlS' iuPJunn; .4" IRe2

it (dMWUIm3 am n""IsIt (41ppe)amlo *sd nstM

itmZ q ( SI WI1U@tto LU US Slp

t S191 't I SUoISDfoJ oon35jSSSUljNo Ilei LI!bS inlllV

PakistU: Seconary School brollsat/limce P1rojection AM 2, till4 3hp 3*tf 4

lotbly hit Cots (1117)

teachero(9-9l 1420Teachrert(I-10 2145Alosamc factor 9.15lzedldt.re factor 10.25

IIClIm COSTS aT 11 mIICIS Oas lilloas)

I1S 1"T 11 l9st logo in1 1912 199 1114 19 lo In? t 1 2

Teacher Salaries 1192.7 1us.5 2142.3 2236.5 2441.3 2664.5 2142.5 3226.2 3536.5 3882.2 4244.1 4611.6 1131. 8U41.5 g 26 1Oth.r Staff Salaries 73.2 66.2 67.1 9.2 195.3 115A. 126.5 139.1 152.2 199.9 113.2 161.1 22.1 242.? 201.1hllouaae 268.4 291.9 319.5 341. 33.3 429.3 469.3 564.1 553.6 691.4 611.6 131.9 661.1 6.9 VI.3Sebtotl 2642.3 227.6 2441. 2652.6 2138.6 3211.1 3521. 3866.7 4244.2 4656.5 511.5 1. 6161.6 616. l 436.1

hlpper Stueato books A laterials 2.6 2.9 3.3 5.6 1.3 15.6 28.3 43.4 72.5 126.9 129.0 IN1. 129.6 I126 128.9rise to 9 120hy 2115lapeitare OA Woe 5.6 6.4 11.1 21.4 39.2 117 131.3 249.4 449.4 686.1 M.1 IS.6 166.2 1165.2 131.1hterials

Other peaditares 51.2 S.1 81.5 17.8 74.4 82.3 91.5 192.1 117.1 138.4 14.7 la.4 159.5 196.4 218.9btotal 51.1 62.5 73.2 61 113.8 154.6 222.6 343.2 S55.5 196.9 1628.5 123.4 2M6 1963.1 1461.1

totAL lmU 2,611.4 2,30.1 2,522.9 2,711.6 3,652.2 3,314.6 3,152.2 4,212.1 4,991.8 5,593.4 6.3.. 6,14. 1,462.4 9,132.? 6,1.2Wfarly lren u 9.61 3 1.11 .12 6. 11 16.52 12.22 12.22 14.62 1. .51 9A .n 1.3 9.11 9.3

Percent Shkre of:Salaries .i Allom0a.c.31 91.31 11.1 66. 16.22 15.41 64.1 t 1.9 8.4t 3.21 93.22 63 13.21 52.2 63.3 loos I Mterials 9.31 6.22 9.51 9.91 1.31 2.22 3.11 6.22 16.41 11.2 21.2 17.21 17 .211 IT.21 112Other lpeaditrm 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.1 2.A 2.71 2.51 2.3 2.91 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

otal lecnrret for IM-1113 15471

- 132 -

Annex 3Pseg 1 of 2

Arg~nsnts For and Against Further LargeScale Goverrment Intervention.. ... .... .... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

in Premloty_nt Training

For Againet

1. Unlike historical develop ents in 1. Gwnerally, supliers of imported technologyindustrialized countries, where industrial should be expected to provide the necessaryworkers were trained to meet the emerging training. Alternatively, a short period ofneeds of an evoLving industry, deveLoping "start-p" training can be arranged for whichcountries must frequentLy import ready-made some Lead time is availabLe, whiLe the newtechnology, which Leaves little lead time industrial unit is being erected and machineryfor training the required cadres ot workers. installed. While a society mry be willing toIn this context, the ready availability of pay for the option to have a well-trained,broadly-trained workers is an asset. flexible labor force available during times ofAdmittedly, this approach does not result in rapid economic or technological change, thisa perfect fit of workers to job requirements option may become unaffordable and unproductivebut that is remedied by a period of during periods of slackened industrial activity."breaking-in" training. Although it can beseen as equivalent to pro%iding a "freelunch" to the employers, it is reaLly ahelping hand from the goverrient to afledgling industry, so it can stand on itsown feet.

2. Education in general and preenployment 2. This argument is more true for generaltraining in particular act as a homogenizing education, which is expected to reach aagent among various sections of society and majority of the population. It has much lessas an instrument of equitable income validity for pre-empLoyment training, which isdistribution. Without equitable distribution needed by and available to only a smallof training institutes across the country; minority.supplemented by a quota system, the socialbenefits are not likely to percolate to thedisavantaged groups of society.

3. The pervasive public sector enterprises in 3. This may be true, with two major caveats: a)Pakistan place a premium on pre-employment most big enter- prises also provide their owntraining qualifications for entry into training, which is normally more cost-effectivepublic service. Big employers, such as and b) they are probably bound more byWAPDA, Railways, Industrial Corporations, goverrnent rules and regulations than by theirPIA, ard Defense Services demand convictions about the value of the institutionalTTC/potytechnic qualifications obtained training.through fully- institutional programs, whichjustifies not only their continuation butalso their g'adual expansion.

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Annex 3Page 2 of 2

4. In the largely non coemetitive markt 4. International ctpt'tiveness depends mostLy on

aiwirwrents of Pakistan, local good n.nage- _ent, entrepreneurship, product*era ctur.rs can get away with inferior design wid marketing. as well as theprodsmts produced by inform_lly trained and macroeconomic environment. Workers can alwayssemiskilled workers ut this is a be trained to the required standards, providedshort-term phmnmaenn. Eventually, to be they are trainable--that is, possess basic|cep titive interrntionally the quality of literacy, nueracy, cognitive, social ndgoods will have to be improved, the labor communication skills.force fully trainrd and productive. This iswhore the Institutional training comes intoits own.

5. There is a chronic shortage of master 5. True, but the trdiners must also have exposu'etrainera and second- level trainers in to industry (see Arnex 4, the case study of thePakistan. Training as a discipline cannot Jordanian system).be picked up from the shop floor alone.Full-time training institutes and programsare the natural breeding grounds for goodtrainers.

6. In the normal course of things, a demand for 6. This may have sime weight, but should not besowpoxer creates its supply, but the reverse used as a license for unlimited expansion of

is also true, at least to an extent, training.particularly in newly-developing countrieswhich are starting virtualLy from scratch.The government, therefore, cannotcompletely abdicate its catalytic role inproviding training.

7. The overseas eptloyment market, particularly 7. Again, this should be interpreted with caution,in the Gulf countries, has remained a strong as studies of reverse migration show that mostcatalyst for expanding training both in the returning workers may be reluctant to take uppublic and the private sectors in skilled occupations, even if they alreadyPakistan. Although this market has visibly possess the necessary skills.shrunken now, it still exerts a significantinfluence on local training policies. Thelikely volaume of reverse migration mayitself create massive new training needs,where public sector inter- ventions wouldconceivably outweigh any possible privatesector initiatives.

8. Uith an annual population growth of 3.1X and 8. No system of education and training can solve

growing numbers of young people, the the problems of general unemployment, exceptgovernment is hard pressed to find viable possibly by reshuffling jobs, which may not be

alternatives to massive provision of general helpful from a social viewpoint. Experienceeducation, which does not lead to productive indicates that only a small proportion of jobs,etployment fcr most of the beneficiairies. 15X at most, requires serious training (6 months

Technical vocational education appears to be or more) of any kind.

the only solution, even if it does notguarantee full employment.

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Annex 4

Case Stuev: The Jordanian and Pakistani ApprenticeshiR Systems

The Jordanian and Pakistani government-sponso'ed apprenticeshipsystems, both adaptations of the 3-year enterprise-based Western model, wereestablished in 1977 and 1962, respectively. Both have well-trained, dedicatedstaffs and well-endowed, well-run facilities. However, in Pakistan most ofthe apprentices are found in establishments with 100 or more workers, andtheir total number is about 7,000, a small number for a nation with apopulation of 100 million. In Jordan the system is so successful in reachingsmall establishments that those with 10 or fewer workers account for 85X ofregistered apprentices, and the total number of apprentices is roughly thesame as in Pakistan, despite the fact that the population is less than 3million. What accounts for these differences?

At least three factors appear to be involved. First and foremost,in Jordan more resources are devoted to liaison with firms. Instructors inthe training centers, of whom there are about 350, spend about half theirtime visiting firms, monitoring training arrangements, and, in the case ofsmall enterprises, monitoring the progress of individual apprentices. Theyalone therefore represent the equivalent of about 175 full-time field staff.In addition there are 70 full-time liaison officers specialized in terms oftraining group (for example, electrical trades) and they are supported by 8similarly specialized training coordinators at the national level. In Pakistanthere are fewer field staff, perhaps about 50, for a country with a population30 times larger and probably a proportionately greater number ofestablishments. In both countries expansion of the apprenticeship systemdepends largely on the ability of these staff to persuade enterprises toparticipate. Clearly, by Jordanian standards, the Pakistani staff are spreadmuch too thinly. Not surprisingly, they appear to have concentrated theirefforts on large establishments: for various reasons, legislation beingone, large establishments are most likely to respond to invitations toparticipate and provide the greatest number of training positions when theydo.

Second, the Jordanian system is much less disruptive to theactivities of the establishment, with regard to both block-release and day-release. In both systems the apprentices undergo block-release basic training.In Jordan, it comes right at the beginning of the apprenticeship; once theapprentice has entered the workplace, further off-site training is by day-release only. In Pakistan, the apprentice typically spends the first threemonths with the employer, and then departs on six-months block release.This means that he cannot be assigned a regular place in the work schedulesfor the first nine months. In principle, but apparently seldom in practice,the apprentice may depart a year later for a second block-release of sixmonths for advanced training, further undermining his status as a regularmember of the work force.

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The day-release training that followe the initial block releasealso seems to be handled more smoothly in Jordan. In Pakistan, as in theusual Western model, the apprentice continues his off-site training withday-release of one day per week, which may or may rot cause further disruption.In Jordan, trainees spend only three days of each week in the enterprise andthe remaining three days of the working week in off-site training, alternatingwith another trainee whose schedule is complementary. No doubt the job-sharinggives rise to problems of its own, but this means that the enterprise cancount on the trainee post being continuously filled.

Thild, initial apprentice wages in Jordan ara only one-third thoseof a newly-qualified worker; in Takistan, they are one-half. In later yearsthe proportions are comparable in both systems. While no data are available,in Jordan it is thought that enterprises about break ever, in the sense thatthe cumulative value of the output of the apprentice is more or less equalto the cost of his wages and enterprise-based training; in Pakistan it seemsthat the large gap between wage and productivity in the first year producesan overall loss.

The upshot is that in Jordan, while establishments may not be verykeen to take on apprentices, they are not particularly reluctant either, andthe numerical strength of the liaison staff enables it to overcome employerresistance. Currently, the number of participating firms is increasing atthe rate of 200 per year, and the constraint on the growth of the system isthe number of would-be apprentices. In Pakistan, by contrast, where theresistance is greater and the liaison force weaker, the constraint is thenumber of training slots offered by the enterprises.

Perhaps the most innovative feature of the Jordanian system is thedivision of the working week between 3 days work in the enterprise and 3days off-site training. Besides minimizing disruption by facilitating job-sharing, it has two other features that deserve attention. It allows a singletraining slot to be used by two apprentices, doubling the capacity of thesystem, at least in terms of number of trainees; and it enables the off-sitetraining to be more comprehensive than is usually the case. One day is spenton practical training, one day on related theory, and one day on generaleducation. This means that the individual at least has an opportunity toupgrade his basic education from the low level that caused him to be channeledinto apprenticeship in the first place, a potentially-valuable facility in adeveloping country where basic education, while good by the standards ofsimilar countries and improving, does not always attend to the needs of thelower ability group.

The equal division of instructor time between imparting workshoptraining and keeping in touch with firms also confers an important benefit:it automatically creates and maintains the link between training providerand enterprise that has often proved hard to establish elsewhere.

In comparing the vitality of the Jordanian and Pakistani models,several underlying differences should be kept in mind. One is that although

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it was established much earlier, the Pakistani system did not introduce theoff-site training component until comparatively recently, and even nowfacilit:es are lacking in parts of the country. In Jordan it was introducedat the outset, admittedly in borrowed premises for the first five years.Secon, the Jordanian system was established at a time when migration to theGulf had caused a shortage of labor and firms were accordingly receptive tothe idea of taking on young people. Pakistan, of course, suffered from thesame labor shortage at the same tine for the same reason, but theapprenticeship system lacked both the staff and the facilities to respond.Third, the Jordanian approach has long relied on parsuading enterprises toparticipate, dispensing entirely with contracts because they served littleuseful purpose and restricted flexibility. The enforcement of legislationhas in principle been a prominent part of the Pakistani carrot-and-stickapproach. Efforts at enforcement may have borne fruit with large enterprises,but it is not clear that other measures would not have had equal success,and they have easily been side-stepped by smaller firms.

Could the Jordanian approach be faulted for being top-heavy withtraining officers? If the (not very satisfactory) alternative to a three-year apprenticeship were a two-year full-time institutional program, it wouldneed to add another 350 instructors to the 350 currently employed, togetherwith additional ancillary staff. The apprenticeship system requires insteadabout 450 staff in the form of instructors and full-time training officers,plus the services of about 50 trainers employed full-time by the larger firms.It is therefore much more resource-intensive that its counterpart in Pakistan,but nevertheless significantly cheaper than full-time institutional training.In the absence of placement studies - some are now being undertaken in bothcountries - it is not possible to make any final judgment about the cost-effectiveness of the two approaches, but if the attitudes of the firms areanything to go by, the Jordanian is the stronger of the two.