Report No. 7181-BAR

BarbadosThe Need for Economic Policy Adjustment

April 20, 1988

Latin America and the Caribbean Division

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Itscontents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit:

Until November 1973 s Eastern Caribbean Dollar (EC$)Since December 1973 : Barbados Dollar (BDS$)

December 1971

US$1.00 = EC$1.975EC$1.00 = US$0.506

Since July 1975

US$1.00 = BD$2.00BD$1.00 = US$0.50

GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOSFISCAL YEAR

April 1 - March 31

FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY

Abstract

This report reviews Barbados' economic performance in the contextof the changing regional and international environments and policyinitiatives of the new Government that took office in 1986. The reporthighlights the need for a review of key policies if the economy is toreturn to a steady growth path. Chapter I deals with recent economicperformance and trends in savings, and investment and the labor market.While wage and salary demands have come down In recent years, labor cosare still high compared to most other Caribbean countries. To help restorecompetitiveness, the report suggests the need for a wage and salary freezeover the next few years in conjiunction with an active exchange rate policy.Both the current and overall positions of the consolidated public sectorhave deteriorated since 1983. The Government veeds to finance a greatershare of public investment from its own savings -- public sector savingsfinanced only 12 of the capital program in 1987 compared to 53X in 1980 --and to adopt a more cautious policy on foreign borrowing, given the presentdebt situation. Public savings need to increase as a proportion of GDPto 2-32 in the short-term and to about 5% of GDP over the medium-term.Chapter II examines the central issues in the three major sectors:tourism, manufacturing and agriculture. The need in these sectors is forImproved marketing, management and training, and for a policy on sugar toremove present uncertainties. Chapter III focuses on outstanding issues indevelopment policy, revenuelexpenditure reform and competitiveness. Theprogress of the public sector investment program and its financingrequirements are analyzed in Chapter IV. Of the Government's BD$416million (US$208 million) investment program for 1988-91, 572 of proposedexpenditures will be on social infrastructure, 252 for economicinfrastructure and only 18% for directly productive and credit activities.Of the total public sector investment program, BD$274 million (US$137million) will be required from external sources; external financing yet tobe identified amounts to about BD$90 million (US$45 million). The reportconcludes by examining medium-term prospects under alternative policyassumptions (Chapter V). Real GDP groweth of about 3.5Z per year on averageis feasible over the medium term provided that the main macroeconomic andsectoral issues are addressed. The Government so far has met its debtservicing obligations, but with an average annual service payment of US$92million over the 1988-91 period, debt servieing could become an acuteproblem should its main foreign exchange earner, tourism, eneounterdifficulties. Maintaining creditworthiness thus rests critically on fiscaldiscipline, Improved performance of the tourism industry and renewed growthof manufactured exports.

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorIzation.

This report is based on the work of a World Bank economic missionto Barbados in January 1988. The mission comprised: N. Ramachandran(Chief of Mission), R. Ramsaran (Consultant) and D. Velasco (Consultant).

BARBADOS

COUNTRY ECONOMIC REPORT

TABLE OF CONTENTSPage No.

COUNTRY DATA

SUMMARY AND MAIN ISSUES . ........................ i

I. RECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ..................... 1Growth Experience .......... .. ... *.......... 1Trends in Prices, Wages and Employment ..... 2Public Sector Finances ... .................. 3Balance of Payments ........ ... .. ... ........ 5Banking and Credit ......................... 6Tlhe Public Debt ............................ 8Conclusions and Recommendations ............. 9

II. SECTOR PROBLEMS AND ISSUES 10Tourism .................................... 10

Agriculture ...... **...... ............... 11Manufacturing ............ 13

III. MAJOR POLICY ISSUES 16Development Policy ..... ....... ............. 16Fiscal Policy ........... .............. *.. 17Competitiveness is......,1

IV. THE PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM 19Execution of Public Investment .... ......... 19The Medium-Term Investment P-ogram ......... 21Financing the Public Sector Investment

Program ....................... -* ..... 22

V. MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS 23Medium-Term Scenarios ...................... 23Financing Gap and Creditworthiness ......... 25

ANNEX I: GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT ASSISTANCE LIST 26

STATISTICAL APPENDIX 29

MAP (IBRD 20365)

Page 1 of 2COU1T.Y DATA - BARBADOS

AREA POPULATION DENSITY481 KU2 0.258 milion (mid-196) 667 per krs

Rate of Growth: 0.8 (from 1976-1916) 962 per kal of arable land

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1960) HEALTHCrude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 16.2 Population per Physician (1966) 1,240.0Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 6.8 Population per Hospital Bed (1988) 110.0Infant Mortality (per 1,000 liv.

Cirths) 6.9

INCOME DISTRIBUTION (1970) DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP (1976)S of National Income, Highest quintile 44.0 X owned by top 10X of Own-ra 77.0

Lowet Quintile 18.6 X owned by Smllest of Owners 0.6

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER (1977) ACCESS TO ELECTRICIM (1980)X of Population - Urban 100.00 X of P:-pulatlon - Urban 96.0

- Rural 100.00 - Rural 90.0

NUTRITION (1968) EDUCATIONCalorie intake as X of Requirement 180.0 Adult Literacy Rate X (1977) 99.0Per capita Protein Intake 96.0 Primary School Enrollment X (1968) 110.0

GNP PER CAPITA 1966 */s US6,140

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 166 AUNNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (U, CONSTANT PRICES)

USS Million 1 1982-64 1965 1986GOP at Market Prices 1,88 6. 100.0 -. 03 0.5 8.9GOrss Domestic Investment 211.9 15.8 -868 2.6 12.8Gross Dom etic Savings 214.4 1.0 Current Account Balance -8.4 -0.8Exports of Ooods, NFS 741.9 66.4 7.6 12.5 -80.2Imports of Goods, NFS 789.4 66.2 7.6 14.0 -16.7

OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1986

Value Added Employment V. A. Per WorkerUSS Million ( Thousands (X USS Million (X

Agriculture 74.8 6.4 7.6 6.1 9,590 79.8Industry *nd Mining 180.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 11,288 92.6Services 959.0 62.4 76.8 79.6 12,487 108.2

Total/Averge 1,164.1 100.0 96.2 100.0 12,101 100.0

GOVERNMENT FINANCESGeneral Governmnt Central Governmnt

US Million X of ODP USS lillion X of OOP1996-77 196-67 1966-67 1986-67

Gross Receipts 796.6 29.5 671.9 24.0Current Expendit,re 748.1 27.5 626.4 28.2Current Surplus 58.7 2.0 45.5 1.7Capltal Expenditures 164.2 6.1 164.0 6.1External Assistance (net) 150.9 6.6 160.9 5.6

p/ Atlas Methodology not available

Pago 2 of 2

COUNTRY DATA - BARBADOS

MONEY. CREDIT AND PRICES1981 1982 1988 1984 1985 1986…----- Millions of US9 - December 81)--------

Money and Quasi money 797.0 863.8 893.1 956.6 1,082.1 1,220.0Bank Crodit to Public Sector 163.6 188.2 81.9 114.2 46.7 86.6Bank Credit to Privite Sector 723.1 747.8 836.8 867.4 892.9 971.6

-- -------Percentage in Index Numbers -----------Monoy and Quasi Money as X of ODP 41.8 42.9 42.8 41.6 44.7 46.6Genoral Price Index, January 1980=100 118.6 130.8 137.7 144.1 149.7 161.7Annual percentage changes In:General Price Index 14.6 10.8 6.3 4.6 8.9 1.3Bank Credit to Public Sector 106.2 84.2 40.7 84.6 -58.6 89.5Bank Credit to Private Sector 21.9 8.8 11.8 2.6 4.1 8.8

BALAUNCE Of PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1985-1988)

1984 1985 1986 USt Million L(Millions USS)

Export of Goods, NFS 789.9 779.8 741.9 Sugar 24.8 11.8Import of Goods, NWS 779.0 731.7 789.4 Molasses 3.1 1.8Resources Cap (deficit -) 7.9 47.6 2.5 Other Primary 8.2 8.6

Interest on Public Debt -16.8 -19.8 -30.9 Rum 4.2 1.8Other Factor Payments (net) 4.2 7.2 1.1 Chemicals 10.0 4.4Current Transfers (not) 20.7 18.8 23.9 Clothing 20.2 8.6Balance on Current Account 17.5 65.8 -8.4 Elec. Components 136.6 69.6

All Other Commodities 22.6 9.8Total I 229.8 100.0

Not Public Disbvreemonte 28.7 49.8 90.7(aGros Disbursements) (41.8) (78.0) (114.9)(Amortization) (12.6) (28.2) (24.2) EXTERNAL DEBT. DECEMBER 81. 1986

US Mil.Other Capital -59.4 -87.9 -74.4 Public Debt, Incl.Guaranteed 458.8

Non-Guaranteed Private DebtChange in Reserves 13.2 -15.7 -12.9 Total Outstanding A Disbursed

RATE Of EXCHANGEDEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1986 1 U

December 1971US81.66 a ECf1.97S Public Debt, Incl.Guaranteed 9.6ECt1.4W a US10.656 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt

Total Outstanding A Disbursed

Since July 1975 IBRD/IDA LENDING (DECEMBER 3 . 1986 - MILLIONS UStUS81.00 a ECS2.00 IBRD IDAECt1.00 a US80.60 Outstanding A Disbursed 28.7 -

Undisbursed 25.1 _Outstanding Inel. Undisbursed 68.8 -

!/ Domestic exporte.y Ratio of debt service to exports of goods and travel receipts. .. not available

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SUMMARY AND MAIN ISSUES

1. With limited natural resources, Barbados, a country of 253,00Jpeople, was able to develop an outward-looking economy over time and attaina 1986 per capita GNP of US$5,140. This achievement was realized through acombination of sensible policies and favorable external developmentsnotwithstanding the International recession of the early 1980s and thecollapse of the Tzinidad and Tobago market, which took a heavy toll on theeconomy.

ii. Growth, however, has been stuttering, indicative of a need forcritical review of existing policies and approaches. Although the economyhes expanded somewhat since 1982, it has yet to return to the buoyancy of1976-80, when real output grew at an average rate of 5Z. Following realgrowth of almost 5S in 1986, GDP expanded by only 22 in 1q87, in the faceof declines in manufacturing and the sugar sectors owing to a continuingdecline in competitiveness. Although the major growth sector in 1987 wastourism, its performance was below its potential (para. viii).

lii. Price increases in Barbados have been moderate in recent years,running at 1.3Z in 1986 and 2.8S in 1987. Nominal wage settlements,however, have generally been higher than the rate of inflation, and realwages have continued to rise, notwithstanding a steady increase in thelevel of unemployment from about 112 in 1981 to about 182 in 1987.Barbados' wage costs are currently among the highest in the Caribbean.

iv. A first major issue is unemployment, which persists as one of thecountry's main social problems. At present, over 20,000 people areunemployed (181 of the work force), compared to 12,000 in 1981 (11Z of tnework force). Unless this problem is addressed urgently, the ensuing socialunrest could affect the tourism industry on which the country depends soheavily. Of increasing concern is the growing number of young people withsecondary education among the unemployed. While ad hoc programs canproduce some temporary relief, attention should be focused on the creationof permanent jobs. The medium-term solution is to revitalize the leadingsectors of the economy.

v. The diminished competitiveness of the Barbadian economy hasemerged as a major issue in recent years. Real wages in tourism andmanufacturing have risen at an average rate of over 21 a year since 1980with strong union pressures, and the indications are that productivity hasnot matched this increase. The Barbados dollar has been pegged to the USdollar since 1975 at the rate of BD $2.00 - US$1.00, a rate the authoritieshave held to despite exchange rate adjustments in several Caribbeancountries. In cumulative terms, the real effective exchange rate for theBarbados dollar appreciated by 33X in 1985 relative to the 1980 base.Because of the depreciation of the US dollar _ince 1985, Barbados' realexchange rate appreciation fell to 241 in 1986 and 181 in the first ninemonths of 1987 compared to the 1980 base. Government's use of monetary,'iscal and incomes policies to combat rising costs has met with onlylimited success. The trade uni:*s have recognized the problems facing the

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ecor.omy .d have moderated their demands for wage and salary increases,instead placing more emphasis on work conditions. For instarnce, wage andsalary increases in the public service averaged 8.71 a year in the 1984185period. In 1986 the increase ranged between 1.41 and 91 depending on thewage and salary level, and in 1987 it was 22 for all workers. Under thepresent circumstances, an active exchange rate policy should receiveconsideration as part of a package to improve competitiveness, revitalizethe tourism, industrial and agricultural settors and improve the balance ofpayments. This policy will need to be complemented by fiscal, monetary andwage discipline if its potential gains are to be sustained. Barbados'official international reserves (excluding the CARICOM facility balance)has averaged about 1.9 months' import equivalent in the period 1982-1987.Official reserves stood at US$94 million at end 1987, providing an importcover of 1.8 months.

vi. A third major issue refers to the deterioration of public sectorsavings. Since 1980, the current account savings of tla consolidatedpublic sectcor fell from over 4.51 of GDP in that year to almost nil in1987. Faced with financial difficulties, it is the capital program of thepublic sector that has suffered. Government investment expenditure droppedfrom 61 of GDP in 1980 to an estimated 4% in 1987. Public sector savingsonly financed 11 of the capital program in 1987 compared to 531 in 1980.The overall public sector deficit has more than doubled as a percentage ofGDP9 from 4.11 in 1980 to 8.5Z in 1987. With the deterioration in publicsavings and in the overall operations of the public sector, the Governmenthas had to rely increasingly on foreign savings and domestic borrowing tofinance the capital program.

vii. The Government needs to reverse this trend. Barbados' externaldebt has reached a point where further borrowing has to be undertaken withcaution. Excessive domestic borrowing will crowd out the private sector ata time where investment in directly productive activities needs to beencouraged. Increased emphasis on public capital expenditure to support aprivate sector expansion is needed, and in more direct forms such as creditand technical assistance to the industrial, agricultural and tourismsectors. At a minimum, the Government should aim at achieving savings onthe current account in the short-term of at least 2-3Z of GDP and 5% of GDPover the medium-term. Doing so calls for a drastic reduction in the rateof growth of current expenditures, particularly in the wage bill. Theoperations of some state enterprises (e.g., the Transport Board) need to berationalized to reduce their dependence on the Government. On the revenueside, the Government's tax collection effort has to be intensified. Theappropriateness of the recent shift to indirect taxes and away frompersonal direct income taxes, needs to be reviewed, as it has made thesystem generally more regressive. A significant proportion of publiaexpenditures has gone into health and education; and revenue structuresneed to be put in place to recover a larger part of the operational costsof these services.

viii. A fourth major issue refers to the Government's need to re-appraise development policy in order to provide clear guidelines on how theeconomy can develop from the present point. In a sense the Barbudoseconomy is at a crossroads. The major growth sector, tourism, has been

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expanding below its potential in the face of increasing competition, andBarbados' share of the Caribbean tourist market has been falling.Barbados' hotel occupancy rate in 1987 was only 501 to 602 at a time whenCaribbean tourism activity has been experiencing a boom, and below the 691rate achieved in 1980. Moreover, real value added in 1987 was still 4.82below t*.:t of 1980. There is need to increase the marketing budget andmarket specific products, targeting not only the up-market, but also thedown-market, given Barbados' very diversified accommodations. Thefinancial difficulties being experienced by many smaller establishments aredirectly related to poor management. More treining needs to be emphasizedin this area, as well as continuous programs for frontline workers. Withrespect to existing accommodations, refurbishing and renovation have to beintensified. Adequate demand appears to exist for at least one more luxuryhotel, preferably with good conference facilities to meet the growingopportunites of convention business.

ix. Barbados" lack of competitiveness is perhaps most evident in itsmanufacturing sector where output has fallen significantly in recent yearsas a result of a loss of regional and international markets. Exports ofmanufactured goods in 1987 are estimated to have been at only 40Z of whatthey were in 1986. In some lines of manufactures, producers find itdifficult to compete with imports from Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago,even in the local market, following devaluations in those countries.

x. An increasingly prevalent view in Barbados is that the countryshould build on the advantages it has in terms of an educated and trainablework force, good infrastructure, excellent telecommunications and politicalstability to target industries with higher levels of technology wherehigher costs are not a crucial consideration. The Government shouldcontinue trying to attract offshore entities offering goods and servicesfor the upper end of extzra-regional markets and to enhance the image ofBarbados as a business center. An incres*ing number of data processingcompanies have found Barbados attractive, and the authorities shouldpromote this trend. Nevertheless, Barbados cannot escape the need to raiseefficiency in the traditional manufactures such as garments, food,furniture and agro-based industries.

x. In addition to enhancing cost competitiveness, the essentialingredients of a manufacturing strategy should includes improved exportmarketing in regional and extra-regional markets, greater attention todesign, packaging and timely completion of orders, special assistance inmanagement and organization to indigenous producers, improved access tofinance, and increased reliance on tariffs rather than quotas and negativelists as a means of protecting domestic industries.

xii. Aariculture should play an important role in reducing thevulnerability of the economy. The major crop, sugar, is, however,uneconomic. The present cost of production is about 25 US cents per pound,compared with a world market price of about 8 US cents a pound, an EECpreferential price of 26 US cents and a US preferential price of about 20US cents. The operating losses in the sugar industry have been rising.While efforts to rationalize the industry must continue, diversificationinto non-sugar crops such as sea-island cotton, vegetables, yams, fruitsand flowers should receive high priority.

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xiii. Given the natural constraints facing agriculture, suc;h as soilconditions, topography and climatic factors, there is need to upgradeextension services. Marketing is a critical issue, particularly in view ofthe perishability of agricultural products and high transport costs. Oneaim of the Government Is to become self-sufficient in fish. Training offishermen and improved handling and storage facilities in certain areas ofthe country are needed to meet this objective. The possibility of acanning industry should be explored.

xiv. The public investment priorities of the present Government inseveral respects corresponds closely with those of the previousadministration. Besides the on-going program, new development projects arebeing forimlated within the framework of a new Development Plan. The1988-91 public sector investment program amounts to BD$416 (US$208million), of which BD$274 million (US$137 million) will be required fromexternal sources; external financing yet to be identified is about BD$90million (US$45 million). The projects cover a broad field that spansdirectly productive activities as well as social and economicinfrastructure and human resources development. The need fordiversification continues to underlie development policy. The agriculturalprojects are aimed at furthering import substitution and developing newforeign exchange earners. One of the major projects involves explorationof the possibilities of using irrigation to grow a variety of non-traditional crops on a year-round basis. The objective in the industrialsector is to increase the volume of credit for the further growth oftourism, fishing and manufacturing; and industrial estate facilities are tobe expanded. In terms of sectoral allocations, 57Z of the proposedexpenditures will be on social infrastructure, 252 for economicinfrastructure and enly 182 for directly productive and credit activities.There needs to be better balance between infrastructural investment anddirectly productive investment if the economy is to generate the desiredlevel of income and savings. Greater emphasis ois directly productiveinvestment does not mean the Government should be involved in productionitself, but rather that it should pay increased attention to assiting theprivate sector in more direct ways, such as through credit and technicalassistance to the industrial, agricultural and tourism section.

xv. A fifth major issue is the rapid increase in external debt and itsshort-term nature. Between 1982 and 1987, public external debt increasedfrom US$224 million to US$470 million, or by 1102. In per capita terms,the foreign debt more than doubled, particularly from commercial sources,increasing from US$895 in 1982 to US$1,856 in 1987. As a percent of GDP,the ratio of public external debt increased from 222 to 34% over theperiod. The increased foreign borrowings have been necessitated by growingfiscal deficits in recent years; foreign resources have financed about 602of the total deficits Incurred since 1983. With increased commercialborrowings carrying maturities of 5 to 7 years, Barbados' debt serviceratio is expected to peak at about 322 .n 1991. The Government is aware ofthe concerns expressed in this report and of the need to address the majorissues identified.

xvi. The medium to longer term view of the economy, debt burden andcreditworthiness can be explored through two scenarios. The baselinescenario assumes fairly moderate real growth of 1.52 in 1988 followed by a

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rate of 2% in each of the following five years. This view is based on theassumptions that there would be no significant expansion in exports orextraordinary pe,formance by the tourism sector. It also assumes no majorpick-up in public or private investment. The public sector savings ratio,however, wlll be required to increave to about 22 in 1988 and to 32 in1989-93. The debt service ratio wou'd reach 322 in 1991 and declinethereafter. The second scenario assumes implementation of policy reformssuggested in this report, particularly with respect to public sectorsavings and export competitiveness, and projects a higher level ofperformance. With major sectors showing stronger growth, real GDP isprojected to rise 2.72 in 1988 and 3.52 thereafter. The financingrequirement from external sources Is estimated at about US$75 million ayear over the five-year period 1988-92. The debt service ratio isprojected to increase from 152 in 1988 to about 292 in 1991 but willdecline to 8Z by 1998. The Government has so far met its debt servicingobligations (debt service payments In 1987 amounted to 182 of Governmentrevenues) but with average annual service payments of some US$92 millionover the 1988-91 period, debt servicing could become an acute problemshould the country's main ioreign exchange earner, tourism, encounterdifficulties. Maintaining creditwozthiness critically hinges on improvingthe economy's competitiveness, fiscal, monetary and wage discipline,resuscitation of tourism and renewed growth of manufactured exports.Barbados' external borrowing program also needs to be planned carefully,with improved access to longer term funds and with more emvphasis beingplaced on productive projects with a high rate of return.

I. RECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

1.1 With limited natural resodrces, Barbados, a country of 253,000people, was able to develop an outward-looking economy over time and attaina 1986 per capite GNP of US$5140. It realized this level through acombination of sensible policies and favorable external developments.Among these were rising income in the US and other industrial countries andthe oil boom in Trinidad and Tobago from the mid-1970s to the early 1980s.Barbados has benefited from the significant growth in international travelin recent years. Witb good foreign exchange earnings from tourism anddependence on foreign sources for only about half its oil requirements,BarbA&Jos was able to escape a large part of the external payments pressuresteiw kg from the high international oil prices of the latter part of the1970s. The international recession of the early 1980s and the collapse ofthe Trinidad and Tobago market did, however, take a heavy toll on the localeconomy. Growth has been stuttering, indicative of a need to reviewexisting policies and approaches to development. Nevertheless, thephysical and institutional infrastructure, the quality of the workforce andthe political climate all remain basically conducive to renewed growth. Ina dynamic regional and international setting, however, there is the needcontinuously to re-assess the country's position and policies.

GROWTH EXPERIENCE

1.2 Following real growth of almost 52 in 1986, output expanded byonly 2X in 1987 (Table 1). Although Barbados experienced five consecutiveyears of positive growth after declines of 1.92 in 1981 and 4.92 in 1982,the economy 1a3 yet to return to the buoyancy of 1976-80, when output grewat an average rate of 5Z. Real GDP in 1987 was less than 5% above that of1980. In 1987, 2% growth was achieved despite an almost 25% drop in outputin the sugar sector and a 52 decline in manufacturing. Sugar productionfell by 7.3% below the industry target of 90,000 tonnes as a result ofreduced yields and a decline in acreage harvested. Real value added innon-sugar agriculture and fishing has also been stagnant in recent years,and output fell in 1987 for the third consecutive year, largely the resultof unfavorable weather. Although some subsectors in manufacturing grew in1987, electronic output continued to suffer from the pull-out of a majorfirm in 1986 and the closure of two other companies since then.

1.3 The major growth sector in 1987 was tourism, followed by wholesaleand retail trade and construction. Real value added in the tourism sectoris estimated to have increased by 12.7% in 1987 as a result of a 12%increase in arrivals and a 5% growth in tourism receipts. Despite thisperformance, ths sector has tended to stagnate In recent years and realvalue added in 1987 was still 4.8Z below that of 1980. The wholesale andretail trade sector has been favorably affected by the increase indisposable income since 1986 and the growth of the visitor industry overthe last two years. Construction, too, has benefited from higherdisposable income, as well as Government development activities. While

output in this sector fell at an average rate of 4.4S between 1980 and1985, it grew by 7.12 in 1986 and 6.42 in 1987. Business and generalservices also showed improved performance in 1987. Output in Governmentservices declined to 1.52 in 1987 following growth of over 42 in theprevious two years.

Table 1: SELECTED ECONOMIC DINICATORS(annual percentage change)

Est.1081 1982 1988 1984 1985 1986 1987

Rel CDP (factor co"t) -1.9 -4.9 0.4 8.6 1.e 4.7 2.6of which:Sugar -27.8 -8.7 -4.6 17.8 -0.8 11.6 -24.8Other Agric. and Flhing 7.2 7.1 16.0 0.9 -0.9 -4.6 -5.1Mining and Quarrying -10.2 2.6 22.5 88.8 7.8 6.6 -8.9Manufacturing -8.6 -5.4 2.8 2.1 -9.6 5.1 -5.0Wholesale A Rotall Trade 1.0 -8.0 -8.O 4.0 6.0 6.6 6.5Construction 4.1 -12.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.8 7.1 6.4Tourims -6.8 -14.0 -2.0 7.0 -8.0 8.6 12.7

GOP Deflator (1974.166) 17.2 10.6 6.0 5.5 4.6 1.6 2.5

Retoil Price Index (Average) 14.6 10.8 6.8 4.6 8.9 1.8 2.8

Employed (Labor Force) 6.8 -2.9 -0.8 -4.0 -1.1 4.8 2.0

Domestic Exports (Value) -11.9 25.4 86.9 14.4 -15.6 -15.8 -46.8

Tourist Arrivals -4.7 -18.8 8.1 12.6 -2.6 8.6 12.6

Ratios

GOrss CapitFl Formation/GOP 27.6 22.6 19.9 16.2 15.4 16.6 14.8

Unemploymsnt/Labor Force 10.7 18.7 14.5 17.1 18.6 17.6 17.9

Slorcl: Appndix Tables 1.2, 2.2, 2.8, 3.1, 3.2, and 7.1.

TRENDS IN PRICES, WAGES AND EMPLOYMENT

1.4 Price increases in Barbados have been moderate In recent years.According to the retail price index, inflation in 1987 was about 2.82,1 upfrom the 1.3% of the previous year. Increased stamp duties on extra-regional imports, higher consumption taxes and continuing strong consumerdemand may account for a large part of the increase. The depreciating USdollar also exerted some upward pressure on prices, since more than halfthe value of total Imports came from non-US sources. These rates ofinflation are down considerably over those in the early 1980s, even thoughthere was a significant shift to indirect taxation in the form ofconsumption taxes and import duties in 1986 and 1987. The largest priceincreases in 1987 were in food (3.92), alcoholic beverages and tobacco(6.42) and housing (4.3Z), whereas prices in some other categories (e.g.,clothing and footwear) declined (Appendix Table 7.1). The list ofprice controlled items, which include foodstuffs and certain essentialgoods and consumer products both locally produced and imported, remainedlargely intact in 1987.

11 Based on January-October average.

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1.5 The natural growth rate of the population fell to loss than 12 inrecent years. This decline, combined with a net outmigration, has resultedin average population increases of 0.26Z a year since 1980. The effecthas been to leave the population at around 250,000 for several years. Thelabor force, however, increased from 113,300 in 1980 to 119,300 thousand in1987, an average rate of 0.74Z. Almost 20Z of the labor force are under 24years. The unemployed in this group account for almost half the unemployedlabor force.

1.6 Although only about 301 of the workforce in Barbados is unionized,the labor unions play a significant role in wage determination. Nominalwage settlements have generally been higher than the rate of inflationalthough they have moderated in recent years. For instance, wage andsalary increases in the pablic service, which has a workforce of about17,000, averaged 8.71 a year in 1984-85. In 1986, the increase rangedbetween 1.41 and 9.01 depending on the wage and salary level, and in 1987it was 2% for all workers. In recent years, unemployment has increased inparallel with the rise in real wages. Between 1982 and 1986, the number ofunemployed went from 15,400 to 20,800. Over the same period, the wageindex showed an increase of 26.71, as compared to an increase of 16.01 inthe price index. In every sector (the garment subsector excluded), thewage increase between 1982 and 1986 exceeded the price change of 161.

1.7 Unemployment has increased steadily since 1981, reflecting theproblems besetting the economy. The unemployment ratio fell from 15.71 in1976 to 10.7Z in 1981, rose steadily to 18.61 in 1985 (Appendix Table 1.2)then fell again to 17.8Z in 1986. Although the number of employedincreased by about 2,000 in 1987, the unemployment ratio held at around thesame level as that in the previous year. The significant increase in theunemployment level in recent years underlines the need for an urgent reviewof existing policies.

PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES

1.8 Both the current and overall positions of the consolidated publicsector have deteriorated since 1983. As a percentage of GDP, the currentaccount surplus fell from 5.6Z in FY1983184 to almost nil in FY1987188.The overall deficit to GDP ratio moved from 2.21 to 8.51 over the sameperiod. The Central Government's position worsened in FY1987/88. Thecurrent account surplus, which had averaged 1.21 in the five- year period1982 to 1986, turned into a deficit equivalent to 0.91 of GDP in 1987. Theoverall deficit to GDP ratio also increased from an average of 5.21 from1982 to 1986 to 8.8% in 1987 (Table 2).

1.9 Although the current revenue of thom Central Government isestimated to have increased by 6.71 in FY1987/88, taxes on company profitsand individual incomes declined by 8.91 and 27.31 respectively. This dropfollowed a decline of 42.81 in revenue from taxation of individual incomesin FY1986/87, largely the result of reliefs granted by the new Democratic

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Labor Party Government. Revenue from the land tax, which had increased byalmost 122 in the previous year, also fell by 14.12 in FY1987188. The 72increase in revenue in FY1987188 was largely the result of increases inconsumption taxes and stamp duties.

Tabl- 2: PUBUC SECTOR FINANCES(FofTUP at current mrket pric")

FY FT FY FT FT Et. FT1982/88 1988/84 1984/86 1985/86 1986/87 1987

Central Governmnt

Current Revenue 24.7 25.5 24.8 26.7 25.1 25.0

Taxes Income and Profite 9.6 9.1 6.0 0.8 5.6 4.6Taxes Domestic Goods A Service 6.4 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.8 8.2Taxes International Trade 8.7 4.2 8.6 4.0 4.8 4.8

Current Expenditures 24.0 28.1 24.1 25.6 28.4 26.7

Wage and Salaries 9.9 9.7 10.0 10.5 19.8 11.7Goods and Services 2.4 2.6 2.7 8.0 2.9 8.4Interest 8.0 8.0 2.6 2.9 8.0 8.9Transfers 7.6 7.7 8.6 9.2 7.1 8.6

Current Surplus (DefIcit) 0.7 2.8 0.7 e.8 1.7 (0.9)

Overall Surplus (Deficit) (6.8) (4.1) (6.0) (6.1) (4.4) (8.0)

Consolidated Public Sector

Current Account Surplus (Deficit) 4.0 6.6 8.9 2.8 1.0 0.1

Overall Surplus (Deficit) (4.9) (2.2) (2.6) (6.0) (6.9) (8.5)

Sources: Appe ndix Tables 2.1, 6.2, 5.8, and 5.6.

1.10 As a result of recent changes in the tax system, the share ofdirect taxation in current revenue has fallen from 412 in 1983 to 24Z in1987. The share of personal income taxes dropped from 22Z to 8Z.Correspondingly, the share of indirect taxation increased from 472 to 612over the same period. In relation to total output, taxes on income andprofits fell from 8.32 of GDP in FY1985186 to 5.8Z in FY1986187 and to4.62 in FY1987188. Taxes on domestic goods and services also increasedfrom 7.02 of GDP in FY1985186 to 8.2Z in FY1987188.

1.11 Between FY1982/83 and FY1987/88, the current expenditures of theCentral Government rose at an average rate of 11.72 compared to 7.42 forcurrent revenue. In recent years, the share of wages and salaries hasaveraged around 42Z of current expenditures, a slight increase since 1986as a result of payments arrears and increased emoluments from the wagesand salaries agreement concluded in early 1987. Interest payments havebeen increasing and in recent years have averaged over 11S of currentexpenditures. Transfers and subsidies rose from Barbados dollars (BD)$143.' million in FY 1982/83 to an estimated BD $235.4 millionin FY1987188, by 642. The FY1987188 allocation amounts to 322 of current

expenditures. Only about 102 of current expenditures went to non-financial public enterprises, the largest beneficiary of which was theTransport Board. Almost half the transfer allocation went to publ cinstitutions such as the Tourism Board, the Defense Force and the ExportDevelopment Corporation.

Table 8: SELECTED BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DATA'annual X chango)

1982 1988 1984 1986 1986 1987

Total Export. (fob) 82.8 24.8 21.9 -11.8 -20.9 -41.8

Of Which: Domestic Exports 25.4 86.9 14.4 -16.0 -16.8 -4".8Sugar A Molasem 15.O 84.9 46.9 -11.9 -8.0 81.8Electronic Component. 67.4 118.8 26.1 -9.6 -20.6 -71.1Clothing 25.7 7.8 -5.6 -B0.6 -20.9 -24.2

Tourlam Recetpt. (Gross) -8.6 6.1 12.6 6.6 8.8 4.6

Retained Iports -8.9 16.6 -6.1 -9.0 2.8 -14.1

X Of GOP

Trade Balance -84.6 -88.2 -27.8 -25.5 -26.9 -26.6Current Account Balanco -4.5 -4.7 1.6 4.4 -0.8 -0.2Overall Balance 0.8 O.7 -1.1 1.8 1.0 0.4Resource Balance -6.8 -6.8 0.7 8.9 0.2 0.2

Sou Appendix Tables 3.1, and 8.2.

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

1.12 As a percent of GDP, the current account deficit in 1987 wassimilar to that of the previous year (Table 3). The value of bothmerchandise imports and exports has tended to fall in recent years.Domestic exports fell by over 60% between 1984 and 1987. Imports, on theother hand, declined by 202. Although the value of exports of sugar andmolasses exports increased in 1987, other domestic exports fell by 582, areflection of the continuing downward trend in non-sugar exports.Contributing to this poor performance was a decrease of some 242 ir.clothing exports and 712 in electronic cor?onents wwhich accounted for 612of domestic exports in 1985.

1.13 The performance of non-traditional exports continues to reflectthe problems being faced by the manufacturing sector. Restrictions stillaffect the CARICOM market, but even if these were removed, the fall inincome in major CARICOM markets such as Trinidad and Tobagc may not permitBarbados' exports to return to the levels of the early 19808, at least inthe short term. Domestic exports to Trinidad and Tobago plummetedfrom US$46.2 in 1982 to US$10.5 million in 1986. Exports to the US marketalso fell by 402 between 1983 and 1986. There are no major indications thatthe international electronics market is changing in favor of Barbados.Some of Barbados' newer exports (e.g., cut flowers, vegetables and cotton)have not yet had a serious impact on foreign exchange earnings.

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1.14 Although total retained imports fell by almost 202 between 1984and 1987, consumer goods increased by 142 over the period. Higherdisposable income since 1986 and easy access to credit from banks and non-regulated institutions contributed to this trend. The fall in the level ofactivities in the manufacturing sector resulted in a sharp decline inimports of in_ermediate goods, which fell by over 502 between 1984 and1987. Capital goods imports have been falling since 1981.

1.15 Estimated foreign exchange earnings in 1987 were the lowest since1983. Tourism is the country's major foreign exchange earner, but thetrade deficit in recent years has generally exceeded gross earnings fromthe travel industry. Service imports have also contributed to thedeterioration of the foreign exchange position. Interest payments on thepublic external debt increased from 12 of exports of goods and non-factorservices in 1980 to 6.62 in 1987. Over the same period, the debt serviceratio (which takes amortization into account) increased from 2.82 to 21.82.Foreign travel expenditures by residents also rose -- from 3.4% of exportsof goods and non-factor services in 1980 to 3.92 in 1986. Privatetransfers into Barbados in recent years have averaged around US$25 million,which in 1986 amounted to 122 of domestic goods exports. This contributionto foreign exchange earnings from Barbadians residing abroad issignificant.

1.16 The capital account in recent years has been dominated bygovernment borrowing. The substantial increase in amortization paymentshas offset some of the foreign exchange effect of the new borrowing. Netpublic capital inflows, however, have averaged about US$53.3 million a yearsince 1980. In 1987, net long-term foreign capital inflows were threetimes the amount in 1986. The contribution of private capital in recentyears has been disappointing: net capital inflows to the private sectorhave been negative sin e 1982, and direct investment has become a trickle.Between 1982 and 1987, the total net inflow was in the region of US$7.6million. There has also been a reduced tendency on the part of certainfirms to hold funds in Barbados for any time. The country's officialinternational reserves (excluding the CARICOM facility balance) hasaveraged about 1.9 months' import equivalent in the period 1982-87;official reserves stood at US$94 million at end 1987, providing an importcover of 1.8 months.

BANKING AND CREDIT

1.17 The banking system in 1987 continued to be liquid, althoughperhaps less so than in 1986. Between the end of 1986 and the end ofNovember 1987, total commercial bank deposits increased by 10.72, while thedeposits of private individuals grew by 10.6%. The excess reserves of thebanks declined in 1987, a trend that reflected an increased demand forcredit by the public and private sectors (Table 4). At the end of November1987, domestic credit was 12.52 higher than at the end of 1986.

1.18 A noticeable development in the latter half of 1987 was thesignificant drop in net foreign assets that paralleled the increase in

domestic credit. Between the end of May 1987 and November 1987, netforeign assets dropped by 312, while domestic credit increased by 142. Thenarrow money supply increased by 8.62.

1.19 Of the total commercial bank credit outstanding at the end ofNovember 1987, only 3.22 was in agriculture and fisheries, about 122 was inmanufacturing, 17X in distribution, 9.31 in tourism and 241 in the personalcategory. Of the BD $95.4 million increase in credit between the end of1986 and the end of November 1987, BD $61.4 million or 60.71, went to thedistribution and personal sectors to finance imports and home construction.Credit outstanding in the agricultural sector has been declining, but thisdrop largely reflects the situation in the sugar subsector, which accountedfor over 601 of outstanding agricultural credit. Credit to the livestocksubsector has increased slowly, but there was a drop in that to the foodcrop sector in 1987. Between the end of 1986 and the end of 1987 creditoutstanding to the manufacturing sector actually declined, although therewas an increase toward the end of 1987. With respect to long-term loans,residential mortgages increased by 23.11 in 1987, with trust companiesaccounting for more than half the increase. Long-term lending by theBarbados Development Bank is estimated to have dropped by some BD $3million in 1987. About 401 of the bank's portfolio (in which tourism andindustry do,inate) is facing servicing problems. The Banks's activities

Table 4: MONETARY SURVEY

Dometic CreditFnd Of Net Foreign To Governent To Privat; Total Money Supply Quasi MoneyPeriod Assets (Not) Sector

1981 -25.0 28.6 21.8 22.8 6.6 18.8

1982 47.1 22.6 8.6 7.9 -1.4 9.0

1988 2B.0 -4.7 12.4 7.9 16.1 4.1

1984 5.6 9.6 6.8 7.1 -2.5 12.7

1985 84.9 -16.4 4.0 -0.9 14.5 8.8

1986 -7.9 2.8 8.6 8.4 16.7 4.4

1987 (Nov.) -4.8 16.8 11.4 12.5 9.8 11.6

Soure : Control Bank of Barbados.

have been affected not by lack of funds, but by weak loan demand. Becauseof continuing financial problems, many small hotels have been unable toborrow to undertake refurbishing. The manufacturing sector is stillfeeling the effects of the loss of important segments of the regional andinternational markets. Skills to formulate projects in a form that couldbe considered for a loan are far from adequate, another factor affectingloan demand.

1.20 Interest rates in Barbados have tended to fall since 1981. TheCentral Bank rediscount rate moved from 221 in 1981 to 81 in 1987. Theweighted average lending rate of the commercial banks declined from 15S to

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9.51 over the same period, while the weighted average deposit rate fellfrom 8.4% to an average of 3.5S. The nominal deposit rates of recent yearshave exceeded the rate of inflation, as reflected in the retail priceindex. In January 1988, the Central Bank signaled a change in policy. Theminimum interest rate on savings deposit was moved from 3S to 41, and theaverage lending rate (mortgages and hire purchase excluded) was increasedfrom 9.51 to 10.51 effective February 1. Other rates are expected to movein line. This measure was designed to encourage savings and dampenspending in order to ease the pressure on the country's foreign reserves.Given the size of the change, however, it is unlikely this measure willhave any effect other than to guide present concerns and future policy.

THE PUBLIC DEBT

1.21 The public debt has increased rapidly in recent years. Thedomestic component (including Government guaranteed) rose by more than 50Sbetween 1982 and 1986, while the domestic debt of the Central Governmentspecifically was equivalent to 281 of GDP at the end of November 1987. Ofthis, more than 601 was short-term. Interest payments as a percentage ofcurrent revenue increased from about 81 in the late 1970s to over 112 inrecent years.

1.22 Between the end of 1982 and the end of 1987, public external debt(including Government guaranteed debt and the debt of the Central Bank)increased from US$223.8 million to US$470.4, million or by 1102,particularly from commercial sources. In per capita terms, the foreigndebt more tha?n doubled in this period, increasing from US$895 in 1982 toUS$1,856 in 1987. As a percent of GDP, the ratio of public external debtincreased from 22% to 342 over the period. These debt figures do notinclude loans to utilities, which are not guaranteed by the Government.

1.23 In recent years, foreign funds have played a critical role infinancing these fiscal deficits. In 1987, the Government borrowed US$60million in the London market through commercial bank sources. Project-related funds supplied another US$26 million. After amortization ofUS$17.6 million, net inflows totaled US$44 million in 1987. Foreignresources have finantw- about 601 of the total deficits incurred since1983. With increased commercial borrowing, the share of Barbados' externaldebt owed to other than official bilateral and multilateral agenciesincreased to about 50Z by the end of 1987, up from 322 in 1981.

1.24 Service payments have increased along with the growth of the debt.For instance, in the five-year period 1982 to 1987, interest payments onthe public and publicly guaranteed external debt rose by 1531, amortizationby 4682. As a percent of current revenue, interest on the external debtwent from 6% in 1983 to over 10Z in 1987. Total debt service payments as apercentage of domestic exports and tourism receipts rose from 5.91 to 18.11over the period 1982 to 1987. Scheduled debt service payments areprojected to peak in 1991, when the debt service ratio will reach about292.

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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

1.25 At present over 20,000 people are unemployed in Barbados, comparedto 12,000 in 1981. If this problem leads to social unrest, it could affectthe tourism Industry on which the country depends so heavily. Ofincreasing concern is the growing number of young people with secondaryeducation In the unemployed workforce. While ad hoc programs can providesome temporary unemployment relief, attention should be focused on thecreation of permanent jobs. The medium-term solution is to revitalize theleading sectors of the economy. Many of the problems have been recognized,and some measures have already been put in place to deal with them.

1.26 While wage and salary demands have come down in recent years,labor costs are still high cempared to most other Caribbean countries. Tohelp restore competitiveness, a wage and salary freeze may be needed overthe next few years, accompanied by some measures to increase productivity.An active exchange rate policy should also be considered as part of thepackage.

1.27 The level of savings and investment in the economy has toincrease. Gross fixed capital formation as a percentage of GDP droppedfrom over 20% between 1978 and 1982 to around 15% in recent years. Thedomestic savings ratio has fallen since 1985. Policies aimed at increasingboth the savings and investment ratios to around 20Z in the medium termshould be instituted. Given the present debt situation, it may be unwisefor the Government to increase borrowing to any significant extent, even ifit were able to raise the funds. With the prevailing liquidity in thefinancial system, the Government has been able to tap the local marketquite successfully. In view of the Government's present financialposition, local resources should not, however, be used to finance currentexpenditures.

1.28 The Government needs to finance a greater share of publicinvestment from its own savings and should aim for a savings rate of atleast 2-31 of GDP on the current account in the short term and 5% of GDPover the medium-term. Doing so will require a reduction in the rate ofgrowth of current expenditures particularly in the wage bill. As part ofthis exercise, a close look needs to be taken at certain items ofexpenditures, particularly in the wage bill. The operations of some stateenterprises (e.g., the Transport Board) need to be rationalized to reducetheir dependence on the Government. On the revenue side, the Government'stax collection effort has to be intensified. A significant proportion ofpublic expenditures has gone into the areas of health and education. Tohelp recoup some of the costs the health services, the Governmentintroduced a health levy. However, proper health revenue structure needsto be put in place to enable the Government to recover a larger part ofoperational costs. The same should be done for education.

1.29 Given the financial difficulties, it is the capital program thathas suffered the most. Government investment expenditures dropped from5.91 of GDP in 1980 to an estimated 4.2Z in 1987. Private investment, bothlocal and foreign, should be encouraged. At the domestic level, resources

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are available in the system, but there is little demand. Manyentrepreneurs long oriented toward the local and regional markets may havebecome disheartened by the problems that have emerged in the latter. Asfar as the manufacturing sector is concerned, a fundamental rethinking ofstrategy and policy may be required. The Government, with the help oflending institutions, should do more to develop the local entrepreneurialclass. A great deal more moral suasion is needed to encourage banks todivert a larger proportion of their resources to the productive sectors.The banks themselves should be urged to assist prospective investors informulating project proposals that advance the small business sector. TheBarbados Development Bank can provide more assistance in this area, if itis to use its resources fully.

1.30 To enhance the present savings framework, the Government shouldmove quickly to put in place a comprehensive set of regulations to governthe operations of non-bank financial inetitutions and other agenciesinvolved in deposit-taking or lending.

II. SECTOR PROBLEMS AND ISSUES

TOURISM

Performance

2.1 Tourism is the leading growth sector in the economy. Since 1982,its contribution to GDP has averaged around 11.61, and it affects a widerange of activities. Real output growth in this sector was 3.51 in 1986and an estimated 12.71 in 1987. Nevertheless, tourism has been falteringin recent years. In 19871, although stay-over arrivals increased by 12Z,gross receipts rose by only 4.61. Cruiseship visitors have increasedsignificantly, and with the facilities that are likely to come on-stream in1988, this segment of the industry is likely to take on greater importance.

2.2 One of the salient characteristics of Barbadian tourism is itshighly seasonal nature. The improved performance of the industry in 1987owed a great deal to the higher occupancy rate attained during the so-called "off" months of April to November. That shift was the result of agreater marketing effort, the use of sports to attract visitors and theintroduction of air tours from the UK and Canada. Visitors from the UK inthe first nine months of 1987 were 521 higher than those in thecorresponding period of 1986. The weakening US dollar may have been animportant factor in this development. Because of the increased number ofEuropean visitors, the average length of stay is estimated to haveincreased in 1987.

2.3 Preliminary results suggest that the hotel room occupancy rate in1987 is likely to be in the range of 50-60%, an improvement over 1986 butstill less than the occupancy rate of 691 in 1980. The occupancy ratevaries among the different classes of hotels, with the luxury and A classones showing the highest rates. The explanation to a large extent is thequality of the services, professional marke. tng and superior management ofthese hotels, which are often the first to be filled in the winter months.Room revenue per room is also estimated to have increased in 1987.

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2.4 Given the weakness in the organization of the tourism sector,Barbodos' share of the Caribbean tourist market has been falling, asresorts in and around the Caribbean have become increasingly competitive inrecent years. The problems besetting the industry in Barbados are many andneed to be approached on a broad front. The complacency that has creptInto the industry should be recognized and a greater effort made to Improvethe quality of the product being offered.

Conclusions and Recommendations

2.5 An occupancy rate of 50-602 suggests the need for more imaginativemarketing. The smaller properties in particular (whose occupancy rates aremuch lower) have to become a more integral part of the marketing effort.The Government should pay special attention to this group.

2.6 Th-; marketing budget of the Board of Tourism needs to be increasedto permit TV advertising. The funds presently allocated to the Boardamount to about 21 of gross tourism earnings, with the actual share of themarketing component a small part of that. Marketing funds should beIncreased from the present budget of BD$15 million by at least BD$5million. To deal with the problem of seasonality, Barbados can be promotedas a year-round destination, a strategy in which marketing appears to becritical.

2.7 Among Caribbean resort&, Barbados undoubtedly has the widest rangeof accommodations catering to mass, middle and upper-market visitors.While the accommodations at the middle and lower end appear to be adequatefor the moment, the occupancy rate in the luxury sector suggests a need forsome additional rooms. Facilities for large conventions are also limited,and investors should be encouraged to undertake development In this area,if the island is to benefit from the incentives granted under the USCaribbean Basin Initiative.

2.8 With respect to existing accommodations, refurbishing andrenovarlon need to be intensified. In its 1986 and 19R7 budgets theGovernment granted certain fiscal concessions to encourage this process buttoo many properties still offer substandard facilities.

2.9 The financial difficulties being experienced by many smallerestablishments are directly related ro poor management. There is need formore train'ng In this area. Complacency also seems to have affectedfrontline workers, I.e., those who have the most frequent contact withguests. There is a need for continuous programs to help these workersmaintain the correct ambiance. The scope for on-the-job training could bewidened.

AGRICULTURE

Performance

2.10 The share of agriculture and fishing In GDP has declinedsignificantly since the 1950s, when Sft contributed over 301. In recentyears, its share has fallen to aroand 9-102. The drop in agriculture's

I

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contribution to total output is largely the result of the decline in thesugar industry, which once dominated the economy and still dominates theagricultural sector. Sugar production fell by 252 in 1987 as a result ofweather conditions, increased fires and a decline in acreage harvested.Output in the category "other agriculture and fishing' also dropped by 5Z,on the heels of a 42 declir.e the previous year. Weather conditions in 1987affected both the fish catch and the output of green vegetables. Theproduction of cotton and sweet potatoes increased, however.

2.11 The Government sees the agricultural sector not only in terms ofproducing food for the local market, but also as a foreign exchange earnerand a source of jobs. In recent years, the agriculture sector (whichincludes fishing) has accounted for about 82 of the employed labor force.Although all the statistics indicate a gradual decline of thc sugarindustry since 1967, it is still the country's second largest foreignexchange earner. Sugar exports in 1987 earned BD$69 million, or 112 morethan in 1986. While some of the lands released from sugar have been put toother uses (including food crops), others are lying idle. Total arableland in Barbados is about 40,000 acres. About 30,000 are under sugar,although inter-cropping is a common practice. At the height of the season,the industry employs directly about 6,000-8,000 people. This figureexcludes the 5,000 small holders with properties of 25 acres or less. Someadditional employment is created by spin-off activities.

2.12 Despite a long commitment to diversification, the process has beenslow. The sugar industry continues to face questions about its future inthe light of the persistent difference between revenue and costs. Between1981 and 1986, the country received an average of BD $757 per metric ton ofsugar, while it cost BD $1,173 to produce. Costs have remained highdespite rationalization, the abandonment of marginal lands andmechanization. In 1987, it cost about 25 US cents to produce a pound ofsugar, while the world price was 8 US cents a pound (fob), the EEC price 26US cents (reflecting to some extent the weak US dollar), and the US priceabout 20 US cents. Wages and salaries have accounted for more than halfthe cost of producing a tonne of sugar. Because of the slope of the land,the majority of the fields cannot be mechanized.

2.13 Key questions are whether the sugar industry should be phased outor kept at a scale sufficient to satisfy local requirements. Productionin 1987 was the lowest since 1984 and 7.4 'below the target of 90,000tonnes necessary to satisfy local consumption and foreign contractualobligations. If the industry is phased out, *mat can be put in its place?Can sugar be produced economically on a smaller scale? The World Bank isfinancing a study of the sugar industry to address these questions.

2.14 As part of its Import-substitution drive, and in an effort todiversify the economy and develop new foreign exchange earners, theGovernment has been placing increased emphasis on non-sugar agriculture.Poultry production has increased, and the country is now self-sufficient inwhole chickens. An objective of Government policy is to attain self-sufficiency in llfestock generally. With the development of on-shorefacilities and increasing use of the larger ice-boats in the place of day-time boats, the fishing industry is gaining new life. There is a need,however, to improve the distribution network.

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2.15 Real output in non-sugar agriculture and fishing increased by some.5 between 1977 and 1983. Although aggregate output has tended tostagnate since, production of certain vegetables and food and root cropscontinued to increase. Production of cotton lint, which started In 1982,reached 127,7000 kgs in 1986. Although the country exports someagricultural produce (e.g., sweet peppers, sweet potatoes, yams, hotpeppers and okra), export earnings from these crops were insignificant.Floriculture has also been encouraged, and the authorities aim to put some3,000 acres under flowers.

Conclusions and Recommendations

2.16 The sugar industry is almost completely in private hands, althoughthe Government has played a critical role by providing guarantees to thefund raising efforts of the industry. A policy on sugar is needed,however, to remove the present uncertainty. In the short to medium term,sugar is likely to remain an Important industry. Rationalization aimed atreducing costs and improving efficiency has to be accelerated.

2.17 As indicated earlier, the performance of non-sugar agriculture hasbeen mixed. Given the natural constraints facing agriculture in Barbados,extension services need to be upgraded. Marketing is still a majorproblem. Because agricultural products are highly perishable, transport iscritical. At present, the cost of air freight is prohibitive, althoughwith greater volume, there may be scope for negotiating lower rates. Theopportunities for agro-industrial development should be consideredseriously as production increases and supplies become tore certain.

2.18 One aim of the Government is to become self-sufficient in fish.Training fishermen in navigation and fish handling is crucial to thisobjective. The possibility of a canning industry could be explored. Thereis still a need to improve the fish handling and storage facilities incertain areas of the country. To develop a viable fishing industry, issuesrelating to the preservation and development of fisheries resources shouldnot be neglected.

MANUFACTURING

Performance

2.19 Manufacturing was one of the major growth sectors in the economyIn the 1970s: between 1974 and 1980, real value added rose at over 72 ayear. Since 1981, however, the level of manufacturing has suffered fromthe closure of a number of offshore firms and from problems in the CARICOMmarket. While output increased by 5.12 in 1986, it fell by 52 in 1987,eventhough some subsectors such as foodprocessing, beverages, tobacco, appareland data processing showed growth. Particularly dramatic was the fall inthe value of manufactured exports in 1987, which reached only 40% of their1986 level. Manufacturing's share in GDP dropped from 11.62 in 1981 to9.72 in 1987.

2.20 The manufacturing sector can be divided into two parts: anoffshore (enclave) sector encompassing electronics assembly, dataprocessing and garments for foreign markets; and an indigenous sector

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producing a variety of light manufactured goods for the local and CARICOMmarkets. Output in the electronics sub-sector has fallen significantlysince the closure of two big companies, CORCOM and Intel, in the 1985186period and the pull-out or reduction in scale of a few other companiessince. A major garment firm producing for the export market also shut downin 1986. The closures cost almost 2,000 jobs. The reasons these plantsclosed are not clear and may range from rationalization stemming from aglut in world electronics output in the early 1980s to high labor costs.

2.21 About 12 electronic firms are still operating in Barbados. Unlikeother areas of the offshore sector, data processing has been growing: 1 inevery 10 Barbados Industrial Development Corporation (BIDC)-assistedcompanies is in data processing. Seven companies now in this area provideabout 1,000 jobs. Of 10 new companies that started operations in 1987, 3were In data processing and 2 in electronics. These recent developmentshave had a positive, but insufficiently so, effect on employment. At thesame time that 1,624 jobs were lost in BIDC-assisted companies, whichaccounted for 70S of industrial activity, between the end of March 1985 andthe end of June 1987, there was a net increase of only 217 jobs by the endof September 1987.

2.22 The indigenous sector is comprised of about 200 small firmsproducing garments, furniture and a range of light manufactures for thelocal and regional markets. Average employment is 50, although a few firmshave larger labor forces. The significant fall in income in Trinidad andTobago since 1981 and the rise in restrictions in the CARICOM marketgenerally have had a severe impact on this sector, as the range of productsis not well-suited for extra-regional markets. There are also seriousshortcomings in quality and design. Management in iaost of the smallerfirms is poor, and export know-how and desire are generally lacking.Production costs are high, and in a number of areas local manufacturershave found it increasingly difficult to compete with CARICOM goods both inthe h(me market and in major CARICOM countries such as Trinidad and Tobagoand Jamaica, which recently devalued their currencies.

Conclusions And Recommendations

2.23 Although Barbados. is a service dominated economy, the Governmentis of the view that there is potential for the manufacturing sector. Ithas beeen granting a wide range of incentives for production and exports.While offshore companies are easily affected by factors outside ofBarbados' control, the Government should continue trying to attract them inan attempt to diversify economic activity and enharce the image of Barbadosas a business center. Ai increasing number of data processing companieshave found Barbados to be attractive, and the authorities should attempt tobuild on this success.

2.24 While recognizing a role for offshore manufacturing and servicecompanies, the traditional manufacturing sector ought not to be neglected.Several areas need attention. Given the small size of the local market,the manufacturing sector has to be geared toward the regional andinternational markets. Even if existing restrictions in the CARICOM marketare removed, it is unlikely that exports will return to the level of the19709 and early 1980s, given the fall in income in scez of the major

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CARICOM countries. Manufacturers need to start looking at Caribbeanmarkets outside CARICOM, including nearby Latin American ones. Theopportunites offered b3 the US Caribbean Basin Initiative, CAPIBCAN and theLome Convention could also be explored more fully. For some lines ofproducts, satisfying the local market in terms of quality and price arefirst steps toward exports. Greater attention has to be paid to design,packaging and timely completion of orders. The Export DevelopmentCorporation assists firms interested in exporting with field research,information and data relating to overseas markets, and even offersfinancial assistance with respect to market-related activities. Greateruse needs to be made of these facilities. There are serious problems toovercome at the production level, however.

2.25 Because of poor management many indigenous firms are in aprecarious financial position. The loss of a large part of the regionalmarket has contributed to this situation, hlit .oor management is still amaje.r factor. Manufacturers ought to be niade m<re aware of the importanceof skills in costing, quality control, market sc-rvicing and preparation ofsamples.

2.26 In areas such as furniture-making and garment manufacture, manyfirms need new equipment and modernized workplaces. A facility thatprovides lower interest, longer term loans than are currently provided byexisting institutions should be set up.

2.27 The existing range of incentives (fiscal and otherwise) needs tobe examined with a view to making them more attractive. The system ofprotection currently afforded manufacturers ought to be reviewed with theaim of increasing efficiency and improving quality. Consideration shouldbe given to. placing greater reliance on tariffs and less on quotas and thenegative list.

2.28 Technical assistance is needed in several areas. The proposal fora design institute should be pursued seriously. Given existing labor costsand the absence of raw materials, authorities need to identify clearly whatBarbados can produce and sell. The Export Promotion Corporation can thenbe used to develop a detailed data bank with information relating to marketopportunities and requirements, sources of raw materials and availabletechnology.

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III. MAJOR POLICY ISSUES

DEVELOPMENT POLICY

3.1 There is a need for the Government to rethink some areas ofdevelopment policy in order to provide clear guidelines with respect to howthe economy will develop from the present point. In a sense, the Barbadoseconomy is at a crossroads. The major growth sector, tourism, isstagnating, not only because of increasing competition, but also because ofthe way the internatioxial industry haL been changing, with controlincreasingly being exercised from outside the suppliers. Although Barbados'economy is highly tourist-oriented, the Government is also committed todeveloping the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Agriculturaldiversification is accepted policy, and the Government has made someprogress in this direction despite natural constraints linked to soilconditions, topography and climatic factors.

3.2 In the areas of intex-industry linkages--processing and thedevelopment of agro-based industries--a great deal more needs to be done.With respect to the manufacturing sector, policy and direction seem lesscertain. It is increasingly accepted that the regional and internationalenvironment of the 1970s and early 1980s have changed so radically that anew approach to manufacturing is needed. An increasingly prevalent view inBarbados is that its higher production costs suggest a concentration on aselect range of products for the upper end of the extra-regional markets,as well as the exploitation of small niches within the preferentialarrangements that Barbados has not yet taken advantage of. At the sametime, Barbados cannot escape the need to improve efficiency and cost-competitiveness in its traditional manufactures such as garments, food,furniture and agro-based industries.

3.3 The Government has to pay careful attention to the impact of itspolicies on the general economy. Trends in public sector wages andsalaries, the quality of management in the public sector and Governmentborrowing all affect the private sector. Despite an excellent investmentclimate in many respects, foreign private capital and even domesticinvestment have fallen off considerably in recent years. Because of a lackof savings, the Government has had gradually to reduce its developmentexpenditures. Current expenditures have been allowed to grow at almostthe same pace as domestic product, while the gross national savings ratio,fell from 22Z in 1980 to about 16X in 1986 as a result of declining trendsin public savings and stagnation in private sector savings. In short,savings need to be increased so that a greater share of developmentexpenditures can be financed from internal sources.

3.4 Given the nature of the country's main economic activities, theGovernment's role in maintaining and developing the infrastructure iscrucial. To encourage private sector investment, the Government hasprovided a wide range of fiscal and other incentives. These must be re-examined in light of specific objectives and they need to be aiministeredmore efficiently. The shortcomings of Barbados' private and public lendingagencies ought to be looked into as a matter of urgency.

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3.5 In recent years, Barbados has created an increasingly attractiveenvironment for various types of offshore companies such as foreign salescorporations, captive insurance companies and international businesscorporations. As a business and financial center, Barbados can only gainfrom the revenue genere ed by related fees and taxes, and the country alsoearns foreign exchange from the holding of board meetings, visits fromofficials, etc. The offshore business sector ought to be encouraged.Given its pleasant climate and environment, Barbados should also seek topromote itself as a health resort and explore the benefits that might flowfrom developing retirement facilities.

FISCAL POLICY

3.6 Barbados has a highly open economy. The ratio of both totalexports and imports to GDP has averaged about 60% over the last five years.To stimulate the economy, the Government that took office in 1986 reduceddirect taxes on individuals and corporations and increased tax relief in anumber of areas. The aim was to encourage personal savings and increaseinvestment in order to generate income and employment. With disposableincome, some local firms benefited from increased demand for theirproducts. Nevertheless given the high dependence on imports, the effect onforeign exchange reserves has been felt. Imports of consumer goodsincreased by 5X in 1986 and 7.61 in 1987. To compensate for the loss indirect tax revenues, indirect taxes have been increased. In FY1987/88,they ari estimated to have accounted for mere than half of total taxrevenues, as compared to 20% for taxes on income and profits, whichdeclined by over BD $60 million relative to FY1985186.

3.7 Two separate issues are involved here. One is the policy oftrying to generate employment by increasing aggregate demand. Forconsumption expenditures particularly, such a policy seems to have limitedrelevance in a country with a narrow production base. Even investment hasa high import content. The reduction of the corporation tax to stimulategreater capital formation is logical, since to the extent that increasedexports take place, foreign exchange is earned to offset what is spent. Ahigher level of investment will generate greater income and employment andthus increase Government revenue.

3.8 Given the small size of the Barbados market, much more than areduction in the corporation tax is needed. The effectiveness of theexisting system of incentives, which include tax holidays, exemption fromimport duties and factory space at subsidised rents, needs to be examined.A well-formulated export policy is also needed. In the case of tourism,there is excess capacity in some segments of the industry. The solutionseems to be one of upgrading the tourist product and strengthening ofmarketing. In certain other areas, expansion is needed.

3.9 The second issue related to fiscal policy is the need to balancepersonal direct income taxes and indirect tax measures. As noted, theshare of direct taxes in current revenue has declined from 411 in 1983 to242 in 1987. The share of personal income taxes dropped from 221 to 82.Correspondingly, the share of indirect taxation increased from 471 to 61%over the same period. The significant shift to indirect taxes raises

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several concerns. Revenue varies with the level of spending. If domesticexpenditures are reduced or the level of imports falls, revenue also falls.The stabilization element inherent in a progressive tax system is alsoreduced. Generally, the shift to indirect taxes has made the system moreregressive and raises the question of equity since indirect taxes take ahigher proportion from lower th&a from higher Incomes. From a revenuepoint of view, the important question is whether the tax system isstructured to siphon to the Government an adequate proportion of theincreases in Income to enable it to meet its essential expenditures. Theexperience of 1987 does not indicate that the system does so. To increasesavings without raising taxes requires a reduction in current expenditures,and in particular the wage and salary component.

COMPETITIVENESS

3.10 The declining competitiveness of the Barbadian economy has becomea major issue in recent years, the result of developments in both thedomestic economy and in the regional and international environments.Within CARICOM, Jamaica, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago have made majoradjustments in their exchange rates. In the wider Caribbean, the DominicanRepublic and Venezuela also did so.

3.11 The Barbados dollar, in constrast, has been pegged to the USdollar at a rate of BD$2.00-US$1.00 since 1975. The authorities viewexchange rate stability as important to growth and development and haveheld to that rate in the face of inflation rates varying between 22 and 152since 1980. In cumulative terms, the real effective exchange rateappreciated by 332 in 1985 relative to the 1980 base. Because of thedepreciation of the US dollar since 1985, Barbados' real exchange rateappreciation fell to 24Z in 1986 and 182 in the first nine months of 1987compared to the 1980 base (Table 5). In the meantime, real wages in theeconomy esa a whole increased. In the two major sectors of manufacturingand tourism, with strong union pressures, the real average increase hasbeen over 22 a year since 1980. Indications are that productivity has notmatched this increase.

3.12 The Government's use of monetary, fiscal and incomes policies tocombat costs has met with only limited success. The trade unions haverecognized the problem and have moderated their demands for wage and salaryincreases, instead placing more emphasis on work conditions.

3.13 Under the circumstances, an active exchange rate policy shouldreceive consideration as part of a package to increase the competitivenessof the Barbadian economy and improve the balance of payments. Sugar wouldnot benefit from increased exports since the quotas are fixed. However, agreater amount of local dollar receipts should help bridge the gap betweencosts and revenue. Capacity exists in tourisni, and with more organizedmarketing the Government should be able to increase the number of visitorsfrom non-dollar areas. With improved rates of revenue per room, many ofthe small hotels needing refurbishing or experiencing financialdifficulties would be able to improve their position. Manufacturers shouldalso be able to increase their sales in the extra-regional markets as wellas the CARICOM market once the restrictions are eased and foreign

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investment flows should also increase. The disincentive to Imports andforeign travel should positively affect the balance of payments. On thedebt side, the servicing of non-dollar-denominated loans will increase, butthat trend has to be seen agsinat the increased foreign exchange andrevenues that could flow from a downward adjustment of the exchange rate.A fall in real wages is critical to the whole process, as is the prudentuse of monetary and fiscal policies in controlling costs if the potentialadvantages of an active exchange rate policy are to be sustained.

Table 5: WDtICATORS OF COMPETTrIVENESS(198916)

19871981 1932 198S 1984 1986 1936 Jan-Sep

Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (Aug.) 166.5 118.5 110.0 129.6 134.6 129.0 124.7

Real Etffctive Exchange Rnt. (Avg.) 109.9 117.9 128.7 180.5 188.8 124.8 118.0

Wage Rate IndextAll Sector. 110.5 128.0 180.1 142.0 149.9 156.0Usnufacturo 118.8 129.1 140.4 144.6 151.0 160.9Hotels 184.0 184.0 146.0 151.6 161.7 168.6

Retoal Price Index (Averq9g)p/ 114.6 126.4 188.0 189.2 144.6 149.6

Relative Wage Rate Index 18.6 110.4 115.0 114.4 116.2 120.2

Barbados wage rate index (manufacturIng sector) divided by U.S. wage rate index (manufacturingSectors)

Source: IP, Appendix Tables 7.1 and 7.2.

IV. THE PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM

EXECUTION OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT

4.1 The public investment priorities of the present governrent whichtook office in 1986 in several respects corresponds closely with those ofthe previous administration. Besides the on-going program, new developmentprojects are being formulated within the framework of a new DevelopmentPlan. Social infrastructure will claim the bulk of the resources, withconsiderable attention being paid to education, health and social services.Investments in economic infrastructure will continue to be geared tosupporting programs of diversifitation in the private sector, particularlyin the agricultural and tourism sectors.

4.2 The gross capital formation of the Central Government amounted to3.41 of GDP in 1986 and increased to 4.32 in 1987. In the five-year periodfrom 1983 to 1987, the ratio averaged 3.61, as compared to 5.91 in 1981 and4.21 in 1982.2 Most of the projects identified in the World Bank Economic

2/ Capital spending (including net lending) of the public sector inFY1987188 is estimated at 7.2Z of GDP, compared to 6.7Z in the previousyear.

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Memorandum of December 1986 as having found financing are ongoing or aboutto start. The soil conservation effort in the Scotland District, in whichthe IDB was involved, was completed in 1987, and several projects areexpected to finish in 1988. Among these are the partly CDB-financedSpringhall Land Lease Program, which had encountered problems arising froma lack of coordination.

4.3 The landing and cold storage facilities being constructed at theBridgetown Fishing Port with IDB assistance are expected to come on-streamin 1988. The Airport-West Coast Road, which started In 1985 and which isintended to serve as an industrial access road and to reduce the congestionin the larger Bridgetown area, is to be completed in August 1988.Considerable progress has been made on the access road to the cement plant,which is being financed by the CDB. Additional costs were incurred inrealigning certain portions of the road. The construction of a new LPGplant, started last year with assistance from the Export DevelopmentCorporation of Canada is nearing completion. The container craneinstalled at the port has been lying idle since last year, however, as Ithas generated fears of increasing unemployment.

4.4 The projects initiated by the previous Government have for themost part been retained by the present administration. The poultryproduction project that was to produce broiler hatching eggs was abandonedafter consultation with the EDF, however. In the agricultural sector,ongoing projects include the setting up of model farms In the Back Riverarea and the pilot National Fruit Orchard project at Codrington, which isbeing financed by an EDF grant. Based on funding from the World Bank, amajor study of the sugar industry is to be undertaken in 1988. That loanalso includes provisions for agricultural and Industrial credit to theprivate sector. In the area of industry, funds made available by the IDBin 1984 for lending to the productive sectors are st'll being disbursed asare resources provided by the World Bank in 1983 to the Central Bank ofBarbados for on-lending to the private sector through the commercial banks.Disbursement has been slow because of the downturn in the economy. Theroad maintenance and rehabilitation program for which the World Bank hasprovided funding has not proceeded as expected because of problems withimplementation. However, it is about 75Z completed. A CIDA loan of US$36million granted in 1984 for petroleum exploration and development is stillbeing drawn down; more than half has been used. The Venezuelan Governmentalso contributed funds to the program. There has been a lull in thisactivity, however, because of the uncertainty surrounding international oilprices.

4.5 The Education Project II loan granted by the World Bank under theprevious administration was delayed because of changes requested by the newadministration. The loan covers the amalgamation of some of the olderdilapidated primary schools into more efficient units, equipment for thevocational school and Community College, a new secondary school and abuilding for the Ministry of Education. The Student Revolving Fund II,which is being used to assist students pursuing studies abroad in priorityareas, is almost exhausted and a third loan is being contemplated. In thearea of housing, a USAID facility to increase the amount of mortgage fundsfor home improvement and construction is still being disbursed. Several

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Venezuelan institutions have pooled their resources to permit theconstruction of some 500-middle income houses. The major ongoing projectIn the area of health is the expansion of the Queen Elizabeth Hospital,being aided by an IDB loan. In the field of sports, China has agreed to

design and build a sports stadium. The cost is to be reimbursed without

interest.

THE MEDIUM-TERM INVESTMENT PROGRAM

4.6 The Government has put together a list of new projects for whichprospective funding agencies have been identified and which are expectel to

be undertaken over the period 1988-91. This list is tentative, pendingcompletion of the new Development Plan.

4.7 The projects cover a broad fiqld that spans directly productive

activities as well as social and economic infrastructure and human resource

development. The need for diversification continues to underliedevelopment policy. The agricultural projects are aimed at furthering

import substitution and developing new foreign exchange earners; they have

been costed at US$32 million, of which US$24 million are expected to comefrom external sources. One of the major projects involves exploration ofthe possibilities of using irrigation to grow a variety of non-traditionalcrops on a year-round basis. Another is aimed at expanding the productionand export of cut flowers. The need for improved facilities to encouragethe development of the fishing industry is recognized. These will be

located at Conset Bay and Skeete's Bay. To increase milk and livestockproduction, loans are being sought to provide credit to farmers and upgrade

extension services and marketing facilities. The milk/juice processingplant is also in need of expansion and upgrading.

4.8 The objective in the industrial sector is to increase the volumeof credit to encourage the further growth of tourism, fishing andmanufacturing; and industrial estate facilities are to be expanded. In the

field of transport, two major projects for US$60 million have been

formulated. One will improve the road system and ease the congestion I.;the Bridgetown area. The other involves road maintenance andrehabilitation.

4.9 In the field of education, the Government has clearly indicated

its intention to continue rehabilitating and equipping primary and

secondary schools. To satisfy the need for trained manpower, a ThirdStudent Revolving Loan is being set up. The Government is planning newapproaches in the area of health and social services, to upgrade the mental

health services and services for the elderly, including expenditure ofUS$38 million to re-organize and modernize those services. Other health

projects are the establishment of a department of psychiatry at the Queen

Elizabeth Hospital and two sewerage projects, one on the South Coast and

another on the West Coast. A serious pollution problem exists in both

areas that not only poses a threat to health but also to the marineenvironment and the tourism industry.

4.10 In terms of sectoral allocations, 57Z of the proposed expenditures

will be on social infra-structure, 25X for economic infrastructure and only18X for directly productive and credit activities (Table 6).

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FINANCING THE PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM

4.11 Since 1983, the savings of the consolidated public sector havefallen both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP. The latter ratiodeclined from over SZ in 1983 to less than 1Z in 1987. The Government hashad to rely increasingly on foreign savings and domestic borrowing tofinance the capital program. Between 1983 and 1987, external fundsfinanced 66Z of the total overall deficits in this period.

4.12 The capital expenditures of the consolidated public sector in 1987are estim,ied to have increased by 28Z over those of the previous year,with fore savings providing about 50Z of the financing. With virtuallyno savings on current account, local borrowing provided the bulk of therest. Expenditures on externally financed ongoing projects are estimatedto increase from BD$94.9 million in FY1987/88 to BD$122.5 million between1988 and 1991. Foreign funds are expected to account for about 702 ofthese expenditures. With respect to ongoing projects, there has been ashift in emphasis from economic infrastructure and directly productiveinvestment to social infrastructure (Table 6).

4.13 The new projects for which financing is required over tiLe nextfour years will also emphasize social infrastructure, which will accountfor 572 of the estimated cost of BD$294 million. External sources will berequired for 642 of the funding, or BD$187 million. If the ongoing andproposed projects are taken together, total expenditures of BD$416 millionare envisaged in the four-year period 1988-91. Of this amount, BD$274million, or 66Z, will be required from foreign sources.

Tabl. 6: EXTERNALLY-FINANCED PROGRAM, 1987-91

0 N a 0 I N a NU PROJECT a/1967/88 19988/91 19687fi6D6. X Solmm 1 so03 X

Economic Infraotructure 40.42 42.6 29.09 28.7 78.89 25.0Transportstion WONT 1-7 28.7 WW 207.4Coastal Conservation 4.00 1.6Industriel Esta 6.79 8.0

Socla! Infrastructure 14.54 16.8 54.41 44.4 168.9 67.8Hblth rWu r _TI! 49 M= 4.8Education 2.27 2.4 26.47 21.6 22.00 7.5Housing 8.97 7.8 28.08 18.8 17.80 6.0

Dtr ctly Productive 86.87 88.9 12.46 10.2 66.06 12.9Agr). & Flsor7* TX. 77 Iii 1W 7. uu:uEnergy 22.10 28.8 8.60 2.9 -

Other (Mostly Credit for 8.eo 8.2 26.60 21.6 14.90 4.6Tfaetry and Tourism)

Total 94.88 106.0 122.48 106.0 298.60 106.9

SourcesExt rnal 51.17 68.9 85.71 70.0 166.98 68.7Internal 48.66 46.1 86.77 89.0 168.67 86.8

a/ Major projocts for which financing Is required.Source: Appendix Table 6.7.

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4.14 As indicated, the Government has to make a concerted effort tofinance a greater proportion of its capital program from its own savings.Its external debt has reached a point where further borrowing has to beundertaken with caution, while too much local borrowing could reduce thefunds available to the private sector at a time when their investment indirectly productive activities ought to be encouraged. There needs to bebetter balance between infrastructural investment and directly productiveInvestment if the economy Is to generate the desired level of income andsavings. Greater emphasis on directly productive investment does not meanthe Government should be involved in production itself, but rather that itshould pay increased attention to assisting the private sector in moredirect ways, such as through credit and technical assistance to theindustrial, agricultural and tourism sectors.

V. MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS

5.1 Since 1983, the growth rate of the economy has fluctuated between0.4Z and 4.7Z. Clearly the economy has been going through a difficultperiod. Though some diversification has been achieved since the 1950s and1960., economic activities are still narrowly based, and major factorsaffecting economic performance are outside the control of local policy-makers.

5.2 Nevertheless, domestic policies are important to the way theeconomy performs. The buoyancy of the 1976-80 period may have encouraged acertain amount of complacency for which a price is now being paid. Tosustain the impro"ements in living standards, Barbados has to be morecompetitive. To be competitive the Government needs to adapt its policiescontinuously to developments in the regional and internationalenvironments. The population has a high literacy rate, the workforce iseasily trainable, infrastructure is good, telecommunications are excellent,political climate is stable and living conditions are pleasant. These areassets on which the Government can build as it tries to put the economy ona growth path so as to reduce the level of unemployment and increaseforeign exchange earnings.

MEDIUM-TERM SCENARIOS

5.3 According to forecasts by the Central Bank of Barbados, theeconomy is likely to grow at a modest rate of 2.7Z in 1988. Tourism isexpected to expand by 52 and manufacturing by 3Z.

5.4 However, it is useful to look at the long-term future through morethan one scenario. Two are presented here. One, the baseline scenario,assumes a fairly moderate growth rate of 1.5% in 1988, followed by 2.01 ineach of the following five years. This scenario is based on theassumptions that exports to CARICOM or the extra-regional markets will notexpand significantly and that performance by the tourism sector will not beextraordinary. It also assumes no major pick-up in public or privateinvestment. The investment/GDP ratio will move from 14.01 in 1987 to 15.01in 1988 and to an average of 15.7Z thereafter. The public sectorinvestment/GDP ratio is expected to improve slightly over the level of 8.11attained in 1987. The public sector savings ratio will, however, have to

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increase to about 2S in 1988 and be kept at least at that level for thefollowing five years (Table 7).

5.5 The second scenario assumes implementation of policy refornssuggested in this report and projects a higher level of performance. Themajor sectors show stronger expansion and growth. GDP growth of 2.72 isprojected in 1988, followed by 3.52 thereafter. An increas±nglyrevitalized tourism industry and a manufacturing sector that returns to apositive growth path are assumed. An increase in public and privateinvestment slightly larger than that in the baseline case is also assumed.Export earnings are projected to rise by an average of 4.3Z a year in thefive-year period 1989-93.

Table 7: KEY MACRO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS(1986 Prices)

Baseline Higher GrowthPrel. Scenario (Ay.) Scenario (Av.)1987 1988 1989-93 1988 1989-93

Domestic Product

Annual 2 ChangeReal GDP 2.2 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.5Agriculture -13.6 1.8 2.5 2.0 3.0Manufacturing -1.3 1.3 3.0 3.2 8.7Services 4.9 1.6 1.8 3.2 3.7

Z of GDYInvestment 14.0 15.0 15.7 15.2 16.7Gross Domestic Savings 14.0 14.6 14.4 14.8 18.0Consumption 86.0 85.4 85.6 85.2 83.0

Public Finance (Z of GDP)Public Savings 0.5 2.0 4.1 2.0 5.0Overall Balance -7.4 -6.1 -4.1 -6.3 -3.5Current Expenditures 35.4 34.0 31.8 35.0 31.8Capital Expenditures 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6

External AccountsGrowth of Exports

GNFS -15.0 0.6 2.8 0.7 4.3Growth of Retained

Imports -15.7 1.8 3.0 8.2 3.6Current Balance as

S of GDP -0.7 -0.7 -2.5 -0.6 -0.4Debt Service Ratio 17.8 15.5 22.6 15.4 20.3

Source: Appendix Tables 10.1 to 10.6.

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The Financint Gat, and Creditworthiness

5.6 Given the projected savings levels, an average of US$100 million ayear will be required from external sources to fill the gap over the five-year period 1988-92 under the baseline case, and US$79 million a year underthe higher growth scenario. In the latter scenario, the debt service ratiois projected to increase from just over 152 in 1988 to 292 in 1991, butwill gradually decline to 81 by 1998. In the lower growth case, the ratiois projected to increase to 32S in 1991 and decline to 152 by 1998.

5.7 At the end of 1987, Barbados external debt amounted to 342 of GDP.Debt service payments in that year amounted to 181 of foreign earnings. Inrecent years, some external resources have been used to financeconsumption. The Government so far has met its debt servicing obligations,but with an average annual service payment of BD $183 million (US$92million) over the 1988-91 period, debt servicing could become an acuteproblem should its main foreign exchange earner, tourism, encounter seriousdifficulties. Maintaining creditworthiness thus rests critically on fiscaldiscipline, resuscitation of tourism and renewed growth of manufacturedexports. Barbados' borrowing program also needs to be planned carefully,with improved access to longer term funds and with more emphasis onproductive projects.

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ANNEX I

BARBADOS

GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT LISTS

This annex contains a list of major ongoing projects for whichfinancing will be sought during the period 1988/89 - 1990/91. The twolists contain names of projects, the expected lender(s), if any, the totalcost, the external financing required and the counterpart contribution.Estimated costs are to be regarded as indicative.

Data for these project lists, which are to be presented at theCaribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Development Meeting scheduledfor June 1988, were provided by the Barbados Government.

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BARBDAOS - NAJOR PROJECTS WITH FINANCING

fUSs million)

Total External financing Interest Asorti- Brace CounterpartProjects Cost Amount Source Rate zation Period Financing

I (Years) (Years) Amount I_ - __ _ _ - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - -------…-----------… -

Agriculture

Agricultural Development Project 5.84 4.00 IDRD Variable 11 1/2 4 1/2 1.84 32Back River Project 1.25 1.05 OF 1 40 10 0.20 168ridgetovn Fishing Port 12.30 9.00 ID8 4-1/2;2 15 112 9 1/2 4.30 35Ibtional Fruit Orchard 0.70 0.40 E0F Grant 0 0 0.30 43Springhall Land Lease Project 2.25 0.90 CD8 4 15 5 1.45 64

Industry

Global Credit 10.00 6.00 IDB Variable 12 4 4.00 40Industrial Credit 12.50 10.50 I1RO 8-1/4 12 3 2.00 16

Transport

Airport Nust Coast Highuay 44.50 24.50 108 9-1/4 15 4 15.00 345.00 COD 8-3/4 15 5

Access Road to Cement Plant 15.00 9.00 COD 10-114 15 4 6.00 40Road Naintenace I Rebabilitation 20.23 11.00 1ORD Variable 12 3 9.23 46

Energy

Petroleum Explor. & Dev. I (NOC) 36.00 4.90 CIDA 0 40 10 24.30 685.00 Venezuela 2 13 51.90 Venezuela 2 14 1-1/2

Education

Education Project II 45.90 10.00 I1RO Variable 15 3 16.80 3719.00 IDD Variable 25 5

Student Revolving Fund 11 3.00 2.00 [DI 2 25 9-1!2 1.00 33

Housing

Hosing Guarantee Program 10.00 10.00 USAID 11.65 25 5 0.00 08DdostVene2uela Housing Program 15.00 12.90 Venezuela Variable 10 2 2.10 14Land Napping & Registry Project 1.30 1.10 CIDA 3 22-1/2 7 0.20 15

Health

OE Hospital Expansion & 61ebe Polyclinic 19.00 11.70 10 Variable 36;26 9;5 6.30 35

Tourise & Sports

Gymnasium 10.00 10.00 Republic of 0 10 10 0.00 0China

Sources; finistry of Finance and sission estieates.

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BARBADOS - MAJOR PROJECTS FOR NHICH FINANCING IS REQUIRED, 199B189-90191

(USS llian)

Total External Financing Counterpart FinancingProjects Cost Asount Possible Source Aaount Z

Agriculture

Abattoir 3.00 1.95 EIB 1.05 35Central Agronaoic Research Lab. 3.00 1.95 EDF 1.05 35Cut Flowers Production 5.00 3.25 CIDA 1.75 35Fisheries Dev.-Conset Bay & Skeete's Bay 5.00 3.25 EDF 1.75 35Irrigation Development 10.00 6.50 IDB 3.50 35Livestock Developeent Fund 2.00 1.30 OF 0.70 35Livestock Production 5.00 3.25 Unknown 1.75 35UNT MilkALaice Processing Plant 5.00 3.25 Unknown 1.75 35

Industry

Global Loan V (DDD) 10.00 6.00 ID0 4.00 40Global Loan III (9DB) 4.00 4.00 EID 0.00 0Industrial Estates (IDC) 8.70 4.80 CDB 3.90 45

Transportation

Bridgetovn Road Improvement and 40.00 20.00 IDB 15.00 39Traffic Management 5.00 CDD

Road Maintenance & Rehabilitation 11 20.0 13.00 IBRD 7.00 35

Education

Education Project III 20.00 13.00 IDB 7.00 35Student Revolving Fund III 2.00 1.30 IDB 0.70 35

Health

Greater Bridgetoun Sewerage Project 37.00 24.05 ID8 12.95 35Nest Coast Sewerage Project 29.50 18.53 IDB 9.97 35South Coast Sewerage Project 25.00 16.25 IDB P.75 35Upgrading Of Rental Health Services 23.00 14.95 ID8 8.05 35Upgrading Of Health Services for Elderly 15.00 9.75 1D 5.25 35

Housing

National Lowlncome Housing 17.90 9.60 I1RD 9.20 52

Other

Coastal Conservation 4.60 3.00 IDB 1.60 35

Sourcest Ninistry of Finance and Mission estimates.

-29-

BARBADOS

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE

I. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE

1.1 Population Trends, 1977-871.2 Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment, 1976-871.3 Employed Labor Force By Industry, 1981-87

II. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

2.1 Sectoral Origin Of Gross Domestic Product At CurrentPrices, 1976-87

2.2 Sectoral Origin Of Gross Domestic Product AtConstant Prices, 1976-87

2.3 Expenditure On Gross Domestic Product AtCurrent Prices, 1976-87

III. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

3.1 Balance Of Payments, 1976-873.2 Merchandise Exports (f.o.b.) By Major Commodities,

1976-873.3 Merchandise Imports (c.i.f.) By End Use Category,

1976-873.4 Direction Of Trade, 1976-873.5 Merchandise Domestic Exports (f.o.b.) To CARICOM And

Other Commonwealth Caribbean Countries 1978-873.6 Merchandise Imports (f.o.b.) To CARICOM And

Other Commonweath Caribbean Countries, 1978-873.7 Official International Reserves, 1976-86

IV. EXTERNAL DEBT

4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding Including UndisbursedAs Of December 31, 1986

4.2 Service Payments, Commitments, Disbursements andOutstanding Amounts of External Public Dett

V. PUBLIC FINANCES

5.1 Central Government Finances, 1978179-19871885.2 Central Government Revenues 1978/79-1987/88

-30-

V. PUBLIC FINANCES (Continued)

5.3 Central Government Expenditures By EconomicClassifications, 1978/79-1987188

5.4 Central Government Capital Expenditures ByEconomic Classifications, 1978/79-1987188

5.5 Central Government Transfers, 1978179-1987/885.6 Consolidated Public Sector, 1978/79-1987/885.7 Public Sector Investment Program, Externally

Financed Projects, 1985/86-90/91

VI. BANKING SYSTEM

6.1 Summary Accounts Of The Banking System,1980-87

6.2 Summary Accounts Of The Monetary Authorities, 1980-876.3 Barbados - Summary Accounts Of The Commercial Banks,

1980-876.4 Detailed Accounts Of The Trust Companies,

1980-876.5 Commercial Banks Selected Interest Rates,

1968-87

VII. PRICES

7.1 Consumer Price Index, January 1980-October 19877.2 Wage Index, 1977-86

VIII. SELECTED SECTORAL STATISTICS

8.1 Production Of Selected AgriculturalCommodities, 1977-87

8.2 Sugar Statistics, 1977-868.3 Production Of Selected Manu'eactured

Goods, 1977-868.4 Manufacturing Production Indices, 1975-878.5 Trade Data for 806/807/GSP/CBI Transactions

With the United States, 1981-86

IX. TOURISM

9.1 Tourism Statistics, 1979-879.2 Visitor Arrivals by Country of Residence9.3 Average Length of Stay of Guests by Type

of Accommodation9.4 Percentage Bed Occupancy by Type of

of Accommodation, 1976-87

-31-

X. MACRO-ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS, 1986-98

10.1 Actual And Projected Use of Resources(Baseline Scenario)

10.2 Actual And Projected Merchandise Trade(Baseline Scenario)

10.3 Actual And Projected Balance of Payments(Baseline Scenario)

10.4 Actual and Projected Use of Resources(Higher Growth Scenario)

10.5 Actual And Projected Merchandise Trade(Higher Growth Scenario)

10.6 Actual And Projected Balance of Payments(Higher Growth Scenario)

XI. EXCHANGE RATES

11.1 Exchange Rates

-32-

Table 1.1: BRBAADOS - POPULATION TREMDS, 1977 - 87

Est.1977 1970 1979 1980 1901 1902 1903 1984 1905 1906 1987

(in thousands)

Population (beg. of period) a/ 246.7 247.5 248.2 248.8 249.4 250.4 251.2 252.0 252.5 253.0 253.5- -- - -- - - - - - - -- -- - -- - _ - -- -

Natural increase 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8Births 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.3 4.1 3.8Deaths 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0Net sigration -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5 -1.5 -1.9 -1.6 -1.0 -1.7 -1.5 -1.6

Population (end of period) 247.5 248.2 248.8 249.4 250.4 251.2 252.0 252.5 253.0 253.5 253.7-. _- _e-- .-- - -_ -

(as I of population at the beginning of the year)

Rate of natural Increase 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7Birth rate 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5Death rate 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8

Rate of net sigration -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6

Rate of population increase 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1(end of year)

a/ Estimated population in census of Kay 12,19M0 as 249,042.

Source: Barbados Statistical Service.

-33-

Table 1.2: BARBADOS - LABOR FORCE, ENPLOYNEtT, AND WIEHPLOYNENT,1976-87 a/

(in thousands)…---

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Adult Population b/ 163.5 166.0 167.9 170.5 172.4 173.6 174.7 175.9 176.9 177.7 178.7 179.3Hale 74.9 76.2 77.3 78.7 79.7 80.3 80.8 81.3 81.8 82.2 82.6 82.9Feaale 88.6 89.8 90.6 91.8 92.7 93.3 93.9 94.6 95.1 95.5 96.1 96.4

Labor Force 104.0 103.4 101.3 108.8 113.3 112.2 112.7 113.5 112.3 113.2 116.9 119.3Nale 57.6 57.7 57.1 59.5 61.4 61.9 61.3 61.4 61.1 60.5 61.6 63.0Female 46.4 45.7 44.2 49.3 51.9 50.3 51.4 52.1 51.2 52.7 55.3 56.3

Total Employed 87.7 87.2 87.5 94.8 99.4 100.2 97.3 97.0 93.1 92.1 96.1 98.0Hale 50.6 51.6 50.7 54.4 56.2 57.4 55.1 54.6 53.2 s5.o 53.6 54.7Feeale 37.1 35.6 36.8 40.4 43.2 42.8 42.2 42.4 39.9 40.1 42.6 43.3

Total Unemployed 16.3 16.2 13.8 14.0 13.9 12.0 15.4 16.5 19.2 21.1 20.8 21.3Hale 7.0 6.1 6.4 5.1 5.2 4.5 6.2 6.8 7.9 8.5 8.1 8.3Feaale 9.3 10.1 7.4 8.9 8.7 7.5 9.2 9.7 11.3 12.6 12.7 13.0

(as I of adult population)

Labor Force c/ 63.6 62.3 60.3 63.8 65.7 64.6 64.5 64.5 63.5 63.7 65.4 66.5Hale 35.2 34.8 34.0 34.9 35.6 35.7 35.1 34.9 34.5 34.0 34.5 35.1Female 28.4 27.5 26.3 28.9 30.1 29.0 29.4 29.6 28.9 29.7 31.0 31.4

(as Z of labor force)

Unemployment d/ 15.7 15.7 13.6 12.9 12.3 10.7 13.7 14.5 17.1 18.6 17.8 17.9Hale 6.7 5.9 6.3 4.7 4.6 4.0 5.5 6.0 7.0 7.5 6.9 7.0Feeale 8.9 9.8 7.3 8.2 7.7 6.7 8.2 8.5 10.1 11.1 10.9 10.9

…a/ Based on the 1980 population cesus and quarterly or half yearly labor force surveyestimates. Results of the 1980 census are used to estimate the proportion of adultpopulation in inter-census years.

b/ Persons 15 years of age and over.c/ In relation to the adult population.d/ In relation to the labor force; unemployed persons comprise those actively seekingvork mithin a three-month period prior to the date of interview.

Source: Barbados Statistical Service.

-34-

Table 1.3: BARBADOS - ENPLOYED LABOUR FORCE BY INDUSTRY, 1901 - 87a/

1901 1902 1983 1984 1995 1986 1987

('009 Persons)

TOTAL 99.2 %.8 95.2 93.4 92.1 96.2 98.

Agriculture & Fishing 9.4 8.3 7.7 8.4 7.8 7.8 8.1

lanufacturing 14.0 13.8 12.7 12.5 12.0 11.6 12.0

Construction & Quarrying 6.3 7.5 1.8 6.8 7.1 7.9 7.5

Electricity, Gas & Vater 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.7

Coerce 23.3 21.6 21.5 19.9 20.1 20.7 21.3

Transport & Comu nication 5.2 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.1 5.4 6.4

Financial Institutions &Insurance 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.7

Services b/ 35.9 35.3 35.2 35.2 34.5 37.2 37.4

(As percent of total)

TOTAL 100.0 97.6 %.0 94.2 92.8 97.0 98.9

Agriculture 6 Fishing 9.5 8.4 7.8 8.5 7.9 7.9 8.2

lanufacturing 14.1 13.9 12.8 12.6 12.1 11.7 12.1

Construction & Quarrying 6.4 7.6 7.9 6.9 7.2 8.0 7.6

Electricity, Gas & Water 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.3 1.7

Comerce 23.5 21.8 21.7 20.1 20.3 20.9 21.5

Transport & Communication 5.2 4.8 4.9 5.4 5.1 5.4 6.5

Financial Institutions &Insurance 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.7

Services b/ 36.2 35.6 35.5 35.5 34.8 37.5 37.7

a/ Based on the continuous household sasple survey.b/ Includes governsent and others.

Source: Barbados Statistical Service.

.-35.-

Table 2.1: BARBADOS - SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES, 1976-07

(BD$ *illion)

Prel. Est.1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 18 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Sugar 48.1 54.7 Si ' 64.0 %9.0 69.8 56.2 57.0 59.0 70.8 64.9 ...

Other Agric. and Fishing 28.7 37.1 40.0 45.8 56.2 59.1 65.8 78.6 80.2 79.3 84.6 ...

Mining and Quarrying 2.3 4.4 6.9 9.3 11.5 13.1 16.1 16.3 31.1 27.9 31.2 ...

naufacturing 84.8 102.6 112.4 136.4 169.0 189.7 205.5 238.7 264.1 231.7 229.3 ...

Electricity and Hater 11.2 14.1 15.7 18.3 33.1 38.6 44.7 52.9 68.0 71.7 71.7 ...

Construction 55.6 60.1 75.1 88.1 118.2 138.3 122.1 132.5 130.0 117.9 131.4

Uholesale and Retail Trade 165.2 182.0 204.8 259.4 319.0 368.8 398.0 378.5 412.3 451.1 485.7 ...

Tourisn 65.5 87.7 109.7 144.0 182.9 206.5 181.1 186.5 206.8 225.0 233.9 ...

Transport, Storage andCamounications 55.9 60.1 64.2 70.1 86.9 113.0 134.8 154.1 171.0 185.0 211.5 ...

Business a General Services 142.9 145.1 153.4 181.1 192.7 279.6 326.9 339.8 356.6 387.4 405.1 ...

6overament Services 127.8 142.2 150.6 179.6 218.2 229.7 233.0 264.3 295.5 344.0 379. ...

6OP at Factor Cost 788.0 890.1 984.5 1196.1 1483.8 1706.2 1784.2 1898.9 2074.6 2191.8 2328.2 2433.9

Net Indirect Taxes 85.4 103.5 127.6 152.2 194.7 198.4 205.8 213.7 228.2 229.3 348.7 349.0

UDP at Market Prices 873.4 993.6 1112.1 1348.4 1678.5 1904.6 1990.0 2112.7 2302.8 2421.1 2676.9 2782.9

Swrces: Barbados Statistical Service; Central Bank.

-36-

Table 2.2: BARBADOS - SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GROSS DOMESTIC PROUTCT AT CONSTAT PRICES, 1976-07

(1974 BD$ million).....- -... ------------------- -.------------- . . - - - -. ........... .. .... _____._

Prel. Est.1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 19B4 1985 1986 1987

Sugar 43.8 51.1 43.0 48.5 57.6 41.6 38.0 36.3 42.6 42.5 47.2 3S.5

Other Agric. and Fishing 27.1 21.3 29.4 29.8 25.0 26.8 26.7 33.0 33.3 33.0 31.7 30.1

Nining and Ouarrying 2.8 2.4 3.5 3.6 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.9 6.8 7.3 7.7 7.4

Nanufacturing 81.0 83.6 91.2 92.8 94.8 91.4 86.5 88.5 90.4 81.8 86.0 81.7

Electricity and Water 10.8 12.3 14.2 15.8 16.8 16.5 16.8 19.5 20.4 21.4 22.8 23.0

Construction 49.9 43.1 46.3 52.7 56.4 58.7 51.7 51.2 50.7 49.3 52.8 56.2

Wholesale and Retail Trade 122.2 124.6 129.5 142.0 156.6 158.2 145.5 141.2 146.8 154.1 163.3 173.9

Tourise 57.9 77.1 86.3 107.0 111.0 103.5 89.1 87.3 93.4 90.6 93.8 105.7

Transport, Storage & conuni 44.4 4.5 46.6 48.3 49.7 51.9 53.5 54.3 57.0 58.7 61.4 62.0

Business and General Service 118.3 121.3 123.0 126.1 128.1 130.3 133.5 134.1 135.4 140.8 145.0 151.2

Government Services 97.1 97.1 99.5 102.0 102.0 104.0 100.8 100.8 101.3 106.4 111.2 112.9

GDP at factor cost 655.4 679.3 712.4 768.7 802.2 786.9 748.2 751.3 778.4 786.2 822.9 839.6

Met Indirect Taxes 71.0 79.0 92.3 97 8 105.3 91.5 86.3 84.6 85.6 82.2 123.3 120.4

GOP at Market Prices 726.5 758.3 804.8 866.5 907.5 878.4 834.4 835.9 864.0 869.4 946.2 960.0

Real Grovth 4.4 3.6 4.9 7.9 4.4 -1.9 -4.9 0.4 3.6 1.0 4.7 2.0DP Deflator (1974: 100) 120 ' 131.0 138.2 155.6 185.0 216.8 238.5 252.7 266.5 278.8 282.9 289.9

Sources: Barbados Statistical Service; Central aun.

Table 2.3: BARBADOS - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DONESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES, 1976-87

(BD$ million)

Prel. Est.1976 1977 1970 i979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1906 1987

Consumption 801.3 945.9 945.4 1161.2 1354.4 1665.1 1664.2 1804.0 1913.0 1954.1 2249.1 2366.5Private 649.9 773.8 755.7 950.9 1062.0 1343.9 1335.2 1457.9 1525.4 1497.8 1779.3 1841.5Government 151.4 172.1 189.7 210.3 292.4 321.2 329.0 346.1 387.6 456.3 468.8 525.0

Gross fixed capitalformation 235.9 194.1 254.5 317.2 424.3 525.0 450.5 421.2 373.9 371.8 423.8 411.0

Resource Balance -163.8 -146.4 -87.8 -130.0 -100.2 -285.5 -124.7 -112.5 15.8 95.2 5.0 5.4Exports, GNFS 395.1 503.0 645.6 867.8 1129.4 1072.5 1215.5 1353.7 1573.8 1558.7 1483.8 1251.4leports, GNFS 558.9 649.4 733.4 997.8 1229.6 1358.0 1340.2 1466.3 1557.9 1463.5 1478.8 1246.0

GDP at a.p. 873.4 993.6 1112.1 1348.4 1678.5 1904.6 1990.0 2112.7 2302.8 2421.1 2676.9 2782.9

Net Factor Income 4.4 -3.7 3.3 -3.1 4.7 0.0 -5.2 -30.1 -22.3 -25.2 -59.6 -70.8

GNP at m.p. 877.8 989.9 1115.4 1345.3 1683.2 1904.6 1984.8 2082.6 2280.5 2395.9 2617.3 2712.1

Domestic Savings 72.1 47.7 166.7 187.2 324.1 239.5 325.8 308.7 389.7 467.0 428.8 416.4

Net Factor Income 4.4 -3.7 3.3 -3.1 4.7 0.0 -5.2 -30.1 -22.3 -25.2 -59.6 -70.8Private Transfers 25.6 28.5 32.8 37.9 47.7 54.1 40.9 41.3 41.4 37.7 47.7 60.2

National Savings 102.1 72.6 202.7 222.0 376.5 293.6 361.5 319.9 408.9 479.5 416.9 405.8

(as I of GDP)

Consumption 91.7 95.2 85.0 86.1 80.7 87.4 83.6 85.4 83.1 80.7 84.0 85.0Private 74.4 77.9 68.0 70.5 63.3 70.6 67.1 69.0 66.2 61.9 66.5 66.2Government 17.3 17.3 17.1 15.6 17.4 16.9 16.5 16.4 16.8 18.8 17.5 18.9

Gross fixed capitalformation 27.0 19.5 22.9 23.5 25.3 27.6 22.6 19.9 16.2 15.4 15.8 14.8

Resource Balance 45.2 50.6 58.0 64.4 67.3 56.3 61.1 64.1 68.3 64.4 55.4 45.0Exports, GNFSImports, GNFS 64.0 65.4 65.9 74.0 73.3 71.3 67.3 69.4 67.7 60.4 55.2 44.8

6DP at e.p. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Sources: Barbados Statistical Service; Central Bank and mission estimates.

-38-

Table 3.1: BARSADOS - BALANCE OF PAYNENTS, 1976 - 87

(US$ million)

Est.1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1965 1986 1987

Exports of Goods and WS 197.6 251.5 322.8 433.9 564.7 536.3 607.7 676.9 786.9 779.3 741.9 625.7Goods 71.7 83.4 111.6 132.2 181.8 163.7 209.4 273.7 341.6 302.2 245.8 132.5Sugar and molasses 28.1 28.2 26.9 32.5 60.7 29.9 34.4 22.4 32.8 28.9 26.6 29.6Other doestic exports 23.7 20.8 66.3 03.9 107.9 118.6 151.9 241.4 259.0 210.1 184.2 77.4BOP adjustment a/ 2.9 7.9 -13.5 -19.7 -45.9 -31.8 -49.4 -53.5 -52.0 -45.8 -46.0 -24.5Re-exports 17.1 26.5 31.8 35.6 59.0 47.0 72.4 63.4 101.9 101.0 81.0 50.0Nonfactor services 125.9 168.1 211.2 301.6 382.9 372.6 398.4 403.2 445.2 477.2 496.1 493.2Travel (gross) 83.4 111.5 138.6 207.8 253.7 264.1 254.8 255.0 287.7 312.6 338.5 354.0Other 42.5 56.6 72.7 93.8 129.2 108.4 143.6 148.2 157.6 164.6 157.6 139.2

Imports of Goods and NFS 279.5 324.7 366.7 498.9 614.8 679.0 670.1 733.1 779.0 731.7 739.4 623.0Goods 236.7 278.1 308.8 425.4 524.6 575.5 553.7 624.5 662.3 611.2 605.7 500.7Retained 219.6 251.6 277.0 389.8 465.5 528.5 481.3 561.1 560.5 510.2 524.7 450.7For re-exports 17.1 26.5 31.8 35.6 59.0 47.0 72.4 63.4 101.9 101.0 81.0 50.0Nonfactor services 42.8 46.6 57.9 73.5 90.3 103.5 116.3 108.7 116.6 120.5 133.7 122.3

Resource Balance -91.9 -73.2 -43.9 -65.0 -50.1 -142.8 -62.4 -56.3 7.9 47.6 2.5 2.7

Net Factor services 2.2 -1.8 1.6 -1.6 2.3 0.0 -2.6 -15.0 -11.1 -12.6 -29.8 -35.4Interest on NLT public debt -2.0 -2.0 -3.4 -5.3 -5.8 -8.8 -15.7 -17.1 -15.3 -19.8 -30.9 -41.4other factor services 4.2 0.2 5.0 3.7 8.1 8.8 13.1 2.1 4.2 7.2 1.1 6.0

Current Transfers 12.8 14.3 16.4 18.9 23.8 27.1 20.4 20.7 20.7 18.8 23.9 30.1

Current Account Balance -66.9 -60.8 -25.9 -47.6 -23.9 -115.7 -44.5 -50.6 17.5 53.8 -3.4 -2.6

Net Public Capital 4.7 20.8 15.4 7.1 27.4 70.7 52.5 58.4 22.7 36.5 78.6 79.4

Gross disbursesents b/ 6.8 26.1 19.4 10.9 38.4 87.1 56.9 69.3 41.3 73.0 114.9 138.1Project-related 5.8 20.1 9.2 10.1 31.2 59.6 42.2 56.1 32.0 51.0 89.9 113.1CDF type 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 .. 3.0 - - - - -

Other c/ 1.0 6.0 10.0 - 5.1 27.5 11.7 13.2 9.3 22.0 25.0 25.0Official transfers (net) -0.1 1.7 0.4 3.0 -2.3 -9.0 2.8 0.1 -6.0 -13.3 -12.1 -15.6Amortization 2.0 7.0 4.4 6.9 8.7 7.4 7.2 11.0 12.6 23.2 24.2 43.1

Direct investment 6.2 4.7 9.4 5.1 2.2 7.2 4.1 2.3 -1.4 2.6 5.0 -5.0SDR Allocations 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Private Capital (net) d/ 38.0 26.2 23.4 42.6 11.9 11.4 -4.5 -3.0 -51.9 -77.3 -67.2 -66.3Net Foreign Assets Change 18.0 9.1 -22.3 -9.6 -19.9 24.1 -7.6 -7.1 13.2 -15.7 -12.9 -5.5(- increase)

Hemorandus Item

IIF Drauings (net) - 7.6 - - -5.5 -2.1 25.2 15.7 7.6 0.3 -12.9 ...

a/ Sugar valuation adjustmeni sale of oil to stores and bunkers and other balance of payments adjustments.b/ Includes Central Bank sedium-term borrouing.c/ 1978 data represents BOP support loans obtained from private financial institutions.d/ Includes errors and omissions.

Sources: Barbados Statistical Office; Central Dank; Ninistry of Finance; and mission estimates.

-39-

Table 3.2: SARIADOS - HERCWANDISE EXPORTS (F.O.B.) BY MAJOR COIMODITES; 1976 - 87

(ADS sillion)

Est.1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

A. Total Domestic Exports a/ 133.4 151.0 186.6 235.4 337.2 297.0 372.6 510.1 583.7 496.4 420.6 224.0

Primary Products 63.4 67.4 66.4 78.9 135.4 78.3 84.3 62.2 82.2 74.1 69.7 86.5

Sugar 46.9 50.6 47.0 58.0 109.4 51.5 61.9 37.6 57.3 50.3 48.7 64.2Molasses 9.3 5.8 6.7 6.9 11.9 8.3 6.9 7.1 8.4 7.6 4.6 5.8Other 7.2 11.0 12.7 14.0 14.1 18.5 15.5 17.5 16.5 16.2 16.4 16.5

Manufactured Products 70.0 83.6 120.2 156.5 201.8 218.7 288.3 448.0 501.5 422.3 351.0 137.5

RuN 4.4 5.7 6.0 2.6 3.5 4.1 5.5 5.0 6.5 8.0 8.8 8.9Clothing 30.6 37.2 40.6 45.9 49.1 52.2 65.6 70.4 64.8 45.0 35.6 27.0Chesicals 5.9 5.6 9.3 15.2 21.7 24.2 26.3 27.2 25.9 21.1 18.9 27.0Electrical Coconents 13.8 18.3 37.9 45.1 63.3 77.3 121.7 266.3 335.9 304.1 241.8 70.0Margarine and Lard 3.1 3.7 5.4 4.3 6.1 4.5 3.8 4.1 4.6 2.7 2.2 2.5Sports Equipment - - 1.9 8.3 10.3 8.2 0.3 - 0.2 0.2 - -Others 12.2 13.1 19.i 35.1 47.8 49.2 65.1 75.0 63.6 41.3 43.6 2.1

. Re-exports 40.1 53.0 63.6 71.3 118.1 94.0 144.9 135.8 203.7 202.0 131.7 100.0

Petroleus & Products b/ 21.5 35.9 40.1 47.5 94.2 58.7 97.6 98.0 103.3 103.7 71.2 ...Other 18.6 17.1 23.5 23.8 23.9 35.3 47.3 37.8 100.4 98.3 60.5 ...

C. Total Exports 173.5 204.0 250.2 306.7 455.3 391.0 517.5 645.9 787.4 698.4 552.3 324.0

a/ Visible trade.bl 1977 and 1978 differs from official fisures due to a tieing adjustment of 3D$11.1 million of

stores and bunkers re-exported in 1977, but reported in 1978.

Sources: Annual Overseas Trade Reports; Statistical Service.

-40-

Table 3.3: WUDOS - NEBCiLUtDISE MnPOTS (C.I.F.) ST END USE CATEGORY, 1976 - 07

(SD$ Billion)

Est.1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 198 198S 1986 1987

Conw_er Goods 189.5 212.3 243.3 299.9 365.7 372.8 326.8 359.4 350.8 353.8 371.7 400.0

Noo-durable 144.3 161.1 188.3 223.3 261.2 271.4 255.4 263.4 263.8 258.6 266.2 278.0Food and bevreraes 99.2 104.8 124.9 140.3 166.2 179.2 161.6 156.4 160.4 155.2 159.9 168.0Others 45.1 56.3 63.4 83.0 93.0 92.2 93.8 107.0 103.4 103.4 106.3 110.0

Durables 23.4 25.5 24.7 36.7 46.8 50.4 33.0 56.2 45.7 51.8 63.0 70.0Notor cars 10.9 10.9 8.6 14.2 20.1 25.4 15.0 31.1 23.4 27.5 33.4 36.0Others 12.5 14.6 16.1 22.5 26.7 25.0 19.0 25.1 22.3 24.3 29.6 34.0

Other efd. cornier goods 21.0 25.7 30.3 39.9 57.7 51.0 38.4 39.8 41.3 43.4 42.5 52.0

Intermediate Goods 139.7 161.1 150.0 278.0 309.7 402.2 356.2 499.6 509.4 413.4 421.2 240.0

Fuels 30.1 35.6 6.3 06.8 68.6 143.6 64.8 59.4 60.1 53.1 25.5 39.4Chemicals 22.1 24.5 29.8 41.6 52.5 51.4 43.6 50.4 44.4 47.2 50.8 ...Textiles 25.2 26.2 27.3 38.1 40.0 43.4 33.6 41.0 27.0 24.6 27.6 ...Feeds,fats a crude material 19.3 22.4 22.4 27.4 27.1 30.0 27.4 29.4 36.6 28.6 28.0 ...Other mfd. poods 43.0 52.4 64.2 84.1 101.5 133.8 166.6 319.4 3M3.3 259.9 289.3 ...

Capital Woeds 93.0 111.6 140.4 184.7 238.8 279.2 272.8 254.2 244.1 220.2 233.4 232.0

Nachinery 60.8 76.9 100.9 129.9 158.6 194.2 185.9 179.3 175.8 161.3 169.6 ...Construction aterials 32.2 34.7 39.5 54.8 80.2 85.0 86.9 74.9 68.3 58;9 63.8 ...

Unclassified Goods 17.0 18.2 20.3 16.9 16.8 2.8 6.8 8.9 16.7 33.0 23.1 29.4

Total Retained lports 439.2 503.2 554.0 779.5 931.0 1057.0 962.6 1122.1 1121.0 1020.4 1049.4 901.4

Nerch. Imports (c.l.f.) a/ 473.3 556.2 617.6 850.8 1049.1 1151.1 1107.5 1249.0 1324.7 1222M4 1211.4 1001.4

a/ Visible trade.

Sources: Contral iank; larbados StAtistical Service; and larbados Overseas Trade Annuals.

- 41 -

Table 3.4: SARSADOS - DIRECTION OF TRADE, 1976 -87

(BDS million)

Jan.-Nov.1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1965 1986 1987

Isports (c.i.f.) 473.3 556.2 617.6 850.8 1049.1 IISI.I 1107.5 1249.0 1324.7 1222.4 1211.4 921.3

EEC a/ 123.8 141.8 167.8 202.6 213.2 195.4 158.2 196.2 160.2 195.9 241.1 185.0(United Kingdoa) 98.5 103.0 115.6 138.3 157.3 140.3 99.5 112.4 100.0 110.2 127.9 108.9

US 108.9 133.2 175.4 268.8 356.8 398.4 396.7 512.9 635.9 508.0 477.0 314.3CARICON 82.2 88.7 92.0 136.9 189.5 183.2 144.1 152.6 154.8 176.3 125.9 126.2Canada 40.7 38.9 46.2 64.3 76.8 98.2 63.7 68.2 74.9 62.2 78.4 72.4Other 117.7 153.6 136.2 178.3 212.8 275.9 344.8 249.1 299.9 280.0 289.0 114.5

Exports (f.o.b.) b/ 173.5 204.0 250.2 306.7 455.3 391.0 517.5 645.9 787.4 698.4 552.3 275.5

EEC a/ 5.9 39.7 48.4 60.1 70.7 42.4 68.7 35.9 64.5 49.3 76.0 42.2(United Kingdom) 5.6 15.7 32.5 38.6 29.9 26.8 47.0 29.3 54.4 41.0 42.2 38.0US 52.3 61.7 65.6 110.9 165.1 145.0 198.8 418.7 416.5 369.7 249.2 82.2CARICON 45.8 46.6 64.1 76.2 126.7 121.1 141.3 139.0 175.9 164.4 96.1 67.7Canada 12.2 10.7 12.1 16.0 18.3 18.2 10.7 9.8 12.6 9.9 23.2 12.9other 57.3 45.3 60.0 43.5 74.5 64.3 98.0 42.5 117.9 105.1 107.8 32.6

a/ Belgiu-Luxeubourg, Deusark, France, Germany FR, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, UK andGreece (since 1981).

b/ Includes re-eiports.

Sources: Overseas Trade reports; Barbados Statistical Service.

-42-

Table 3.5: BARBADOS - MERCHANDISE DOMEST[C EXPORTS (F.O.8.) TO CARICON AND OTHER CONuONNEALTHCARIBBEAN COUNTRIES, 1978 - 87

(BDS '000)

Jan.-Nov.1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Guyana 2354 1792 1166 1741 645 1275 2106 1661 1137 961

Trinidad and Tobago 25997 33402 46487 51863 79630 79414 67996 35036 209%1 14549

Jauaica 6830 4342 11706 19322 16053 18370 8496 7375 5211 6466

Dominica 1616 1784 3371 2275 1922 2089 1808 1946 2823 3091

Grenada 2756 3169 3834 3579 3534 3594 3646 5291 5044 4880

St. Vincent a/ 2387 4014 5532 4513 3660 4159 4388 4740 4961 5465

St. Lucia 3659 5496 7781 7789 6555 5754 6065 7374 7941 6036

Nontserrat 474 494 673 586 489 522 564 1000 1008 850

Antigua 1612 1985 2939 2833 3055 2568 2912 2864 3534 3353

St. Iitts-Nevis 1746 1659 2319 2238 2257 2658 2499 3198 3640 3344

Belize 28 79 38 29 20 65 18 23 40 62

Total 47105 56424 84680 95b7 117175 119193 98392 68847 55163 48096

a/ Including the Grenadines.

Sources: Annual Overseas Trade Yearbook; Barbados Statistical Service.

-43-

Table 3.6: BARBADS - HECHANDISE INPORTS (F.O.B.) TO CARICON AND OTHER COOEALTH- - CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES, 1978 - 87

(SDo '000)

Jan.-Oct.1978 1979 1900 190 1902 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Guyana 9305 8602 8846 8496 5734 4639 6412 5522 4513 4260

Trinidad and Tobago 56633 89845 146516 132695 104349 114326 113172 123918 90913 83924

Jamaica 14991 25415 21185 28173 23023 22448 23674 20631 25929 22091

Dodinica 1714 970 1443 1218 790 1365 1532 2283 1632 1898

6renada 288 592 627 1073 832 496 557 497 802 1243

St. Vincent a/ 2362 3216 2610 34f', 3144 2291 2106 1268 1391 1883

St. Lucia 4947 3656 3898 5120 4247 4443 4524 4697 4235 6382

Nontserrat 30 21 59 391 177 223 59 119 65 11

Antigua 1199 1641 2156 1680 1178 2240 2115 1679 2805 2093

St. Kitts-Nevis 241 679 606 422 117 127 495 570 251 34

Belize 332 2123 1594 455 495 241 105 13 294 1534

Total 92042 136760 189540 183209 144086 152839 154751 169197 132830 126153

a/ Includes the Grenadines.

Sources: Annual Overseas Trade Yearbook; Barbados Statistical Service.

-44-

Table 3.7: BARBADOS - OFFICIAL INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, 1976 - 86

(US$ aillion)

December 31

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 19B1 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

Net International Reserves 28.3 19.2 41.5 51.2 71.1 67.5 75.7 82.9 69.6 85.3 98.2

Central Bank (net) 20.1 11.5 31.4 39.2 56.0 51.5 57.5 fT.1 52.2 65.8 90.4

Assets 20.1 29.4 49.9 55.8 64.8 87.4 107.6 110.4 107.8 122.6 142.3

Liabilities - 17.9 18.5 16.6 8.9 35.9 5041 47.3 55.6 56.8 61.9

(o.u. sediuw-teru liab.) (-) (10.0) (10.0) (8.0) (6.0) (7.3) (9.2) (9.3) (9.2) (9.2)IHF (CFF) - 7.9 8.5 8.6 2.9 0.9 13.9 12.3 11.5 12.9 7.2Standby - - - - - - 10.7 25.4 31.5 35.3 32.7Trinidad and Tobago a/ - 10.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6Venezuela Investment Fund - - - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01DB - - - - - 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.4Comuercial Banks - - - - - 29.0 19.0 5.0 8.0 4.0 19.0CHCF _- - 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Government Assets 8.2 7.7 10.1 12.0 15.2 16.0 10.2 19.8 17.4 19.5 17.8

Sinking Fund 5.3 6.9 9.1 11.2 13.8 14.8 16.8 18.0 15.2 16.5 14.3Other 2.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.5

Nemorandus Iteo:

Gross Official Reserves 28.3 37.1 60.0 67.8 00.0 103.4 125.7 130.2 125.2 142.1 160.1

a/ Includes Trinidad and Tobago deposits and oil facility.

Sources: Central Bank of Barbados and IF.

Table 4.1 Page 1 of 2BARBADOS

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31. 1986

INCLUDES ONLV DEBT COMMITTED oDooDo - DEC 31, 1986DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T S T A N D I N : I N A R R E A R S

DISBURSED : UNDISBURSED TOTAL PRINCIPAL INTEREST

CREDITOR TYPE SUPPLIERS CREDITSCREDITOR COUNTRY

IRELAND 1,044 1,244 2,288 572 -UNITED KINGOOM 97 1,597 1.694 -

TOTAL SUPPLIERS CREDITS 1,141 2.841 3.992 572 -

CREDITOR TVPE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSCREDITOR COUHTRV

AUSTRIA 38,069 - 38.069 2,845CANADA 5,527 - 5,57 -7MULTIPLE LENDERS 25.000 - 25.000 -

UNITED KINGDOM 85.004 3.405 88.409 7.947 1,920UNITED STATES 5.250 - 5.250 - -

_ - - _- _- _-- _--_ -_- --- _----_--- - - -- -- --- _- _--- ----- - ----

TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 158,850 3.405 162,255 10,792 1,920

CREDITOR TVPE BONDSCREDITOR COUNTRV

JAPAN 89.875 - 89.875 -

TOTAL BONDS 99.875 - 89.875 - -

CREDITOR TYPE : MULTILATERAL LOANSCREDITOR COUNTRV

CARIBBEAN DEV. SANK 30,230 9,909 40.139 20 elEUROPEAN DEV.FUND 1,162 - 1,162 -EUSOPEAN INVEST SANK 8.341 2,207 10,549 274 46IORD 29.949 25,122 55,071 -IDS 54.150 39,483 92.633 -OPEC SPECIAL FUND 3.115 - 3,115 26 -

TOTAL MULTILATERAL LOANS 128.947 75.721 202,668 320 129

CREDITOR TVPE : BILATERAL LOANSCREDITOR COUNTRV

CANADA 22,908 1,231 24.139 66 -TRINIDAD . TOBAGO 20.334 - 20.334 5,378 775UNITED KINGDOM 3.343 - 3.343 - _UNITED STATES 17,000 - 17.000 - -VENEZUELA 13,432 732 14.1e4 4.600 742

TOTAL BILATERAL LOANS 77.017 1,963 78.980 10.044 1.517NOTES: (1) Only debts with an original or extended maturity of over one year are included In this table.

(2) DObt outstanding Includes princIpal in arrears but excludes interest in arrears.

Table 4.1 Page 2 of 2

BARBADOS

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31. 1986

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COITTED 000000 - DEC 31. 1986DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCV AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)

D E B T O U T S T A N O I N G I N A R R E A R S

DISBURSED : UNDISWURSED : TOTAL PRINCIPAL : INtEREST

CREDITOR TYPE

TOTAL EXTERNAL DEST 453,830 83,930 537.760 21.728 3.566

CREDITOR TYPESUPPLIERS CREDITS 1,141 2.841 3.982 572 -FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 158.850 3.405 162.255 10.792 1.920

BONDS 89,875 - 89.875 - -MULTILATERAL LOANS 126.947 75.721 202.668 320 129BILATERAL LOANS 77.017 1,963 78.980 10.044 1,517

TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT 453.030 83.930 537.760 21.728 3.S66

NOTES: (1) Only debts with an original or extended maturity of over one year are included in tv4s table.(2) Debt outstanding includes principal in arrears but excludes Interest in arrears.

Table 4.2 Page 1 of 6BARBADOS

SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, OISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTPROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUOING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31. 1986INCLUDES ONLV DEBT COMMITTED 000000 - OEC 31. 1986DEBT REPAABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCV AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. OOLLARS)CREDITOR TVPE S SUPPLIERS CREDITSDATE S DEBT OUTSTANOING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I NG C P R I O O OTHER ChANGESEND OF PERIOD I

DISERSED a INCLUDING : COMMIT- S DISBURSE- s S E R V I C E P A V N E N T S CANCEL- s ADJUST-ONLV : UNDISOURSED : MENTS S MENTS S-----------S-----------S----------- LATIONS * S N SWTS a S g PRINCIPAL , INTEREST S TOTAL : S: (tl) , (2) s (3) s (4) a (5) : (6) a (7) a (B) a (9)197512 1.280 1.837 658 916 217 105 322 - -197612 1.224 1.224 - 496 339 101 440 - -274197712 956 956 - - 379 45 424 - IlI197812 593 593 - - 404 45 449 - 41197912 336 336 - - 298 23 321 - 41199012 70 70 - - 284 24 300 - 18198112 - - - - 69 - 59 - -11198212 376 733 763 376 - 21 21 - -30198312 540 2.111 1,643 335 IS8 44 202 - -107198412 1,460 3,696 2.472 1,335 184 63 247 - -703198512 1,173 3,966 - - 572 154 726 - 842198012 1.141 3,982 - 10 65 409 474 - 1

* *e *THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * *198712 988 1.975 - 1.855 1.436 272 1,708 - -571198812 379; 572 - 793 1.402 205 1.607 - -1198912 - - - 193 S72 103 675 - -199012 - - - - - - - - -199112 -

199212 2 - -199312 - - - - - - - - -199412 - -199512 - - - - - - _ _ _199612 - - - - - - _ _ _199712 - - - ^ - - - - -199612 - - - - - -199912 - - - - - -200012 - - - - - -200112 - - - - - -

* Projected amounts in this column are amounts eacluded from projections because of unknown terms.

*. This column shows the amount of arithmetic imbalance In the amount outstanding including undisbursed from one period tothe next. The most c.mon causes of imbalances are changes in exchange rates and transfors of debts from one categoryto another In the table.

Ta .e 4.2 s?alge 2 olE 6BARBADOS

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTPROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDOISURSED AS OF DEC 31. 1986

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED 000000 - DEC 31. 1986DEBT REPAVABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOOOS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)CREDITOR TYPE : FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

DATE DEST OUTSTAi4DING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OTHER CHANGESEND OF PERIOD :

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A V M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-: ONLY : UNDISOURSED MENTS : MENTS :----------- :-----------:----------- LATIONS * : MENT ** : : :.: PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL: (1) (2) (3) (4) : (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

197512 16,505 16.505 - - 1.464 1.881 3.345 - -197612 16.041 16.541 1,SOO 1.000 1.464 1.324 2.788 - -197712 18.543 18.760 5,700 5.983 3.481 1.000 4.481 - -197612 25,025 25,036 10,000 10,205 3,723 1,652 5.375 1 -197912 20.774 21,374 600 11 4,262 2,980 7.242 - -198012 20,503 28,113 11.917 5.050 5,434 3.162 8,596 - 256198112 64.883 139.702 119.641 50,685 5.207 3,804 9,011 - -2.845198212 88.331 132,468 - 28,658 4.132 8,184 12,316 - -3.102198312 111,205 145,957 20,500 29.031 5.345 8.293 13,638 - -1.666198412 119,585 138.955 2.673 17,140 6.485 5,965 12,450 - -3.190198512 139,109 152,289 25,000 31,944 14,846 9,578 24.424 - 3,180198612 158,850 162,255 25,000 34,845 15,351 15.725 31,076 - 317

* S * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * *

198712 122,800 125,134 - 1,070 26.329 11,768 38,097 - -10,792198812 100,625 101,694 - 1.265 23,440 9.502 32,942 - - l198912 74,383 74,576 - 876 27,117 7,769 34,886 - -1 4-199012 51,897 51,897 - 195 22.682 5.756 28,438 - 3199112 32,918 32,918 - - 18.979 3.879 22.858 - -199212 17,519 17.519 - - 15,399 2.424 17.823 - -199312 9,268 9,268 - - 8.251 1,391 9,642 - -199412 5,560 5,560 - - 3,708 853 4,561 - -199512 1,852 1,852 - - 3,708 571 4,279 - -199612 - - - - 1.852 179 2,031 - -199712 - - - - - - _ _ _199812 - ; _199912 - _200012 - -200112 - -

S Projected amounts In this column are amounts excluded from projections because of unknown terms.

*5 This column shows the amount of arithmetic imbalance In the amount outstanding including undisbursed from one period tothe next. The most common causes of imbalances are changes in exchange rates and transfers of debts from one categoryto another in the tabile.

Table 4.2 Page 3 of 6BARBADOS-

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTPROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31. 1986

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED 000000 - DEC 31, 1986DEBT REPAVABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)CREDITOR TVPE : BONDS

DATE : OEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I OD OTHER CHANGES: END OF PERIOD

DISBURSED INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A V M E N T S : CANCEL- : ADJUST-* ONLV UNDISBURSED MENTS : MENTS :-----------:----------- :----------- LATIONS * : ENT *

: : : PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL: (1) : (2) : (3) : (4) : (5) (6) (7) (B) : (9)

197512 3.594 3.594 - - - 231 231 - -

197612 3,594 3,594 - - - 229 229 - -

197712 - - - - 2,955 141 3.096 - -639

197812 - - - - - - -

197912 - - - - -198012 - - - - - -

198112 - - - - -

198212 - -198312 - - - - -

198412 - - - - - - -*d8512 24,940 24.940 21,120 21,120 - - - - 3.820198612 89.875 89,875 55.530 55.530 - 2.615 2.615 - 9.405

S * S THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED S* *

198712 89,875 89,875 - - - 6.435 6.435 - -198812 89.875 89,875 - - - 6,435 6.435 - - I

198912 89.875 89,875 - - - 6,435 6.435 - - 4>

199012 58,450 58,450 - - 31.425 5.229 36.654 - -199112 - - - - 58,450 4.022 62,472 - -199212 - - - - -

199312 - -

199412 - -199512 - -

199612 - -199712 - -

199812 - -

199912 - -

200012 - -200112 - -

* Projected amounts in this column are amounts excluded from projections because of unknown terms'.

* This column shows the amount of arithmetic imbalance in the amount outstanding Including undisbursed from one period tothe next. The most common causes of Imbalances are changes in exchange rates and transfers of debts from one categoryto another in the table.

a .e 4.2 '?age 4 oi 6BARBADOS

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTPROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31. 1986

INCLUDES ONLV DEBT COMMITTED 000000 - DEC 31, 1986DEBT REPAVABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCV AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)CREDITOR TVPE : MULTILATERAL LOANS

DATE : DEST OUTSTANDING AT s T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I OD OTHER CHANGESEND OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- : DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E PA Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-: ONLY : UNDISOURSED MENTS : MENTS :----------- :--------- :-----------: LATIONS * : MENT **

: s : s z PRINCIPAL I INTEREST : TOTAL s(1) : (2) s (3) (4) (5) : (6) : (7) : (8) s (9)

197512 416 13.995 10.282 55 - 89 89 87 -197612 2,875 23.478 9.500 2.487 28 160 188 - it197712 10,609 34,019 10.400 7,422 58 341 399 tOS 3041978t2 15,812 51,044 16,507 4,686 58 880 938 _ 576197912 22,487 70,035 18.930 6.566 87 1,205 1.292 54 202198012 33.739 100.437 31,615 12.292 565 1,559 2,124 - -648198112 55,446 120,228 21.718 22.677 562 1,999 2,561 229 -1,136198212 74,878 129.018 11.626 21.214 1.530 3,372 4,902 651 -655198312 89.690 140.510 16.000 18,198 2.895 3.921 6.816 287 -1.326198412 100,031 189,276 54,500 15,582 4,351 4,708 9.059 - -1,383198512 109,392 190,180 6,562 14.988 6.289 6,036 12,325 508 1.139198612 126,947 202,668 23,000 22,857 7,202 8,380 15.S82 5.399 2.089

* * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * *

198712 132,742 191,744 - 16,719 10.604 9,483 20.087 - -320198812 138,368 180,063 - 17.307 11.679 10,078 21,757 - -2 1198912 139,204 167.135 - 13.764 12,928 10.383 23.311 - - VW199012 136,105 152.728 11,308 14.406 10.335 24,741 - -1 °199112 128,217 137,491 - 7.350 15.238 9,850 25,088 - 1199212 117.637 122,517 - 4,394 14,973 9,059 24,032 - -1199312 105,750 107,814 - 2,817 14,704 8.180 22,884 - 1199412 93,191 93.813 - 1,442 14,001 7,192 21,193 - -199512 81.336 81,338 - 620 12,475 6,195 18,670 - -199612 69.634 69,636 - - 11,702 5,244 16,946 - -199712 58.099 55101 - - 11,534 4.334 15,868 - -1199812 47,017 47,019 - - 11,082 3,452 14,534 - -199912 37,285 37,287 - 9.732 2,611 12,343 - _200012 28,803 28,805 - - 8,482 1,910 10,392 - -200112 21,997 21,999 - - 6.806 1,309 8,115 - -

* Projected amounts in this column are amounts excluded from projections because of unknown terms.

** This column shows the amount of arithmetic imbalance in the amount outstanding including undisbursed from one period. tothe next. The most common causes of imbalances are changes in exchange rates and transfers of debts from one categoryto another in the table.

V'al Le 4.2 ?age 5 of- 6BARBADOS 1

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMlI'TMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTPROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31. 1986

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED 000000 - DEC 31. 1986DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY ANO GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)CREDITOR TYPE s BILATERAL LOANS

DATE s DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D s OTHER CHANGESEND OF PERIOD :

s DISaURSED s INCLUDING s COMMIT- i DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A V M E N T S : CANCEL- : ADJUST-ONLY s UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS ----------- :-----------:-----------: LATIONS * : NENT S

s : : PRINCIPAL s INTEREST s TOTAL(1) (2) s (3) s (4) (5) s (6) : (7) : (8) 2 (9)

197512 4.804 19.018 4.198 475 - 72 72 - -

197612 7,453 19.038 - 2.796 120 165 285 - 140197712 19.342 27.396 10.000 12.710 168 203 371 - -1.474197012 22,783 27.579 1.632 4,539 208 866 1.074 - -1.241107912 25.117 31.826 6.055 4,297 2.203 1.051 3.254 11 406198012 43.482 47.580 18,357 21,010 2.385 1,062 3,447 17 -201198112 55.203 67.565 22.295 13.732 1,559 3.032 4,591 - -751198212 58.929 680448 3,659 6.659 1,511 4,170 5,691 - -1.265190312 77.403 91,150 25.989 _t.714 2,625 4.797 7,422 - -662198412 81,184 90,429 6,529 7,276 1.543 4.545 6,088 - -5,707198512 78,872 83.168 - 4.944 1,521 3.986 5,507 20 -5.720198612 77,017 78.980 - 1.613 1.611 3.757 5.368 56 -2.521

* * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTEO * * -

198712 63.261 64,192 - 1,032 4.744 4,175 8,919 - -10.044198812 58,819 59 144 - 606 5.050 3,946 8.996 - 2198912 56.466 56.556 - :35 2.587 3.533 6.120 - -1 -199012 42.786 42,815 - 61 13.740 3.361 17.101 - -1199112 40.276 40.286 - 19 2.529 2,250 4,779 - -

199212 38,137 38.138 - 9 2.144 2.093 4,237 - -4199312 35,659 35.660 - - 2,478 1.956 4,434 - -

199412 33,031 33.032 - - 2,628 1.812 4,440 - -

199512 30,400 30,401 - - 2.628 1,664 4.292 - -3199612 27,792 27.793 - - 2,607 1,519 4,126 - -1199712 25,672 25,673 - - 2,120 1.352 3.472 - -

199812 23,620 23,621 - - 2.049 1.245 3.294 - -3199912 21.570 21,571 - - 2.049 1.145 3.194 - -1200012 19,570 19,571 - - 1.998 1.043 3,041 - -2200112 17.871 17.872 - - 1.696 939 2.635 - -3

* Projected amounts in th's column are amounts excluded f rom projections because of unknown terms.

** This column shows the amount of arithmetic imbalance in the amount outstanding including undisbursed from one period tothe next. The most comnon causes of Imbalances are changes In exchange rates and transfers of debts from one categoryto another in the table.

:a' .e 4.2 rlage 6 olE 6BARBADOS

SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING ANMUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTPROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31. 1986

INCLUDES ONLV DEBT COMMITTED 000000 - DEC 31, 1986DEBT REPAVABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS

(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)* * * TABLE TOTAL * * *

DATE DEBT OUTSTANCVING AT T R A N S A C T I O N S D U R I N G P E R I O D OTHER CHANGES: END OF PERIIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- z DISBURSE- : S E R V I C E P A YM E N T S : CANCEL- A DJUST-ONLY : UNIDISBURSED : ENTS : MENTS L-----------:-----------sI----------- LATIONS * MENT **

t S *z : 2PRINCIPAL 3 INTEREST : TOTAL: (11 : (2) (3) 2 (4) : (5) : (6) : (7) (B) : (9)

197512 26.599 54.949 15.038 1.446 1.681 2,378 4.059 87 -197612 31,187 63,875 11,000 6,779 1.951 1.979 3,930 - -123197712 49,450 81,131 26,100 26,115 7,041 1,730 8,771 105 -1,698197812 64,213 104.252 28,139 19,430 4,393 3,443 7.836 1 -624197912 68,714 123,571 25.585 10,874 6,850 5,259 12.109 65 649198012 97,794 176.200 61.689 38.352 8.668 5.807 14.475 17 -575198112 175.532 327.495 163.654 87.094 7,387 8.835 16,222 229 -4,743198212 222,514 330.667 16,048 56.907 7.173 15,747 22.920 651 -5.052198312 278,838 379.728 64,132 69.278 11.023 17.055 28.078 287 -3.761198412 302.260 422.356 66,174 41,333 12,563 15.281 27,844 - -10.983198512 353,486 454,543 52.682 72,996 23.228 19.754 42,982 528 3.261198612 453,830 537,760 103.530 114.855 24,229 30,886 55.115 5.455 9.371

* * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * *

198712 409.666 472.920 - 20.676 43.113 32.133 75.246 - -21.727198812 388.066 431,348 - 19.971 41.571 30.166 71.737 - -1198912 359,928 388.142 - 15,068 43.204 28.223 71,427 - -2199012 289.238 305.890 - 11,564 82,253 24,681 106,934 - 1199112 201.411 210,695 - 7,369 95,196 20,001 115,197 - 1199212 173.293 178,174 - 4,403 32,516 13,576 46,092 - -5199312 150,677 152,742 - 2,817 25,433 11,527 36.960 - 1199412 131.782 132.405 - 1,442 20,337 9.857 30.194 - -199512 113.588 113.591 - 620 18,811 8.430 27.241 - -3199612 97,426 97,429 - - 16,161 6,942 23,103 - -1199712 83,771 83,774 - - 13,654 5,686 19.340 - -1199812 70,637 70.640 - - 13.131 4,697 17,828 - -3199912 58,855 58,858 - - 11,781 3,756 15,537 - -1200012 48.373 48,376 - - 10,480 2,953 13,433 - -2200112 39,868 39.871 - - 8.502 2,248 10,750 - -3

* Projected amounts in this column are amounts excluded from projections because of unknown terms.

** This column shows the iomount of arithmetic imbalance in the amount outstanding including undisburseo from one partod tothe next. The most comfon causes of imbalances are Changes In exchange rates and transfers of debts from one categoryto another in the table.

-53-

Table 5.1: BARBADOS - CENTRAL SOVERNNENT FINANCES, 1978/79 - 1987/98

(lDt oillion)…------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------.--.. - .------..--.-..-.---.-......

Est.1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/4 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88

Current Revenues 296.8 342.4 425.6 453.1 492.1 538.0 S70.8 645.8 671.9 717.3Current Expenditures 256.0 304.2 307.1 433.7 476.9 488.6 554.5 624.6 626.4 743.4

Current Surplus/Deficit (-H 40.8 38.2 38.5 19.4 15.2 49.4 16.3 21.2 45.5 -26.1

Capital Revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital Expenditure & Net Lending 72.2 85.8 141.8 173.3 i41.2 136.4 131.5 169.0 164.0 218.2

Overall Surplus/Deficit H-) -31.4 -47.6 -103.3 k53.9 -126.0 -87.0 -115.2 -147.3 -118.5 -244.3

Financing 31.4 47.6 103.3 153.9 126.0 87.0 115.2 147.8 118.5 244.3

Gross external borrowing 36.4 21.1 89.6 104.3 71.2 48.7 73.8 69.3 188.5 158.6Trinidad & Tobago 0.0 0.0 51.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0CIDA 8.4 2.9 0.3 1.5 0.2 0.4 4.4 0.0 0.0 4.6USAID a/ 0.0 0.0 b/ 10.6 0.4 18.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0UK 0.0 1.9 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0IBRD 0.0 0.0 2.1 3.6 17.5 12.6 8.5 10.3 14.7 10.6cDB 1.4 3.6 7.4 2.6 2.3 6.3 1.6 0.6 15.1 9.2IDB 6.6 11.2 11.2 14.6 7.2 8.0 6.6 4.3 22.9 39.5Commercial banks 20.0 0.0 11.7 68.9 32.6 1.2 3.6 50.0 80.0 89.7OPEC 0.0 1.5 4.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0EDF 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.6 0.0 55.8 0.0Others c/ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.5 3.2 0.0 5.0

Grants 1.8 0.8 2.2 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.0 1.3 2.0 3.6Amortization 7.9 9.0 10.9 13.9 14.6 26.9 23.5 30.7 39.6 40.2Net external borrowing 30.3 12.9 80.9 91.3 58.4 24.7 54.3 39.9 150.9 122.0

Net banking system 18.4 31.5 23.6 45.7 -11.4 16.6 -19.3 22.1 -21.5 ...Central Bank d/ 14.6 24.3 19.2 27.6 -22.7 -30.7 -72.5 3.5 -71.8 ...Commercial banks 3.8 7.2 4.4 18.1 11.3 14.1 53.2 18.6 50.3 ...

Others -17.3 3.2 -1.2 16.9 79.0 78.9 80.2 85.8 -10.9 ...Trust companies -0.3 0.2 0.2 ".0 0.0 -1.0 0.9 1.0 0.0 ...Special funds -0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 2.9 -3.3 0.0 ...National Insurance Fund 3.2 2.3 0.6 24.1 41.7 37.6 36.9 27.2 4.3 ...Insurance companies 0.9 0.7 2.4 0.0 -2.5 0.1 0.3 7.0 7.5 ...Other (residual) -20.7 -0.4 -4.2 -7.3 40.1 42.3 39.2 53.9 -22.7 ...

Net domestic financing 1.1 34.7 22.4 62.6 67.6 62.3 60.9 107.9 -32.4 122.3

a/ Represents CDF and Basic Numan Needs financing channeled thru CDB, except for BDS7 million in 1983/84.b/ Included in CDI.c/ Includes Venezuelan Investeent Fund loan in the amount of BDS$5.5 million

in 1984/85 and BDS$2.0 million in 1985/86.d/ Includes USAID Rediscount Account of BDS$4.6 million in 1985/86.

Sources: Ninistry of Finance and Planning; Accountant General's Office; and mission estimates.

-54-

Table 5.2: BARBADOS - CENJRAL GOVERNKiIT REVENUES 1978/79 - 1987/88

(aDS million)

Est.1978/79 1979/8 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88

Taxes on Net Income and Profits 132.4 138.4 159.8 175.2 190.8 191.6 195.0 200.4 156.0 129.0Comanies 44.2 47.4 64.7 66.9 68.4 61.2 50.7 56.8 71.3 65.0Individuals 82.2 85.6 89.0 99.6 113.2 120.0 125.2 134.5 77.0 56.0Others 6.0 5.4 6.1 8.7 9.2 10.4 9.1 9.1 7.7 8.0

Employment Levy 6.1 4.1 4.2 -3.8 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8Health Levy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 13.3 16.2 13.4 25.8 28.3Transport Levy 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 10.0 10.5 12.3 12.4 12.6 19.1Training Levy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.3 4.3 7.1faxes on Property 13.0 17.8 21.6 27.5 26.4 28.1 28.3 34.7 42.5 33.0

Land tax 8.0 11.7 11.5 15.0 19.8 21.9 22.9 26.0 29.1 25.0Estate & Succession Duties 2.1 2.0 2.6 3.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5Property Transfers Tax & Others 2.9 4.1 7.5 8.7 5.9 5.7 5.0 8.2 13.1 7.5

Tax on Domestic Goods & Services 66.3 79.8 108.2 121.0 127.9 152.2 166.4 170.4 194.3 228.0Bank Assets Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8Consumption Tax 19.2 23.6 51.4 56.4 80.3 95.0 95.9 99.9 120.8 147.0Excise Duties 5.2 5.5 4.9 5.3 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.0 4.5 5.0Taxes on Rotor spirits,Diesel 011& Aviation Fuel 15.2 17.8 19.2 23.2 3.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2

Rotor Vehicle Licenses 3.4 4.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5Hotel & Restaurant Tax 10.3 13.4 14.7 14.6 12.4 14.3 14.6 17.3 17.4 15.5Notor Vehicle Duty (Highuay Rev.) 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.5 6.7 8.3 12.4 13.0 13.1 14.0Business & Professional Licenses 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.7 3.6 3.6 4.1 5.8 6.6 7.8fax on Insurance Premiums 0.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.5 3.0 3.7 3.6Airport Service Charge 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.7 3.9 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.3Travel Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.4 3.6 3.9 6.1Other 6.6 8.0 9.7 9.9 10.8 15.0 19.7 13.5 14.6 17.2

Taxes on International Trade 54.9 74.4 89.8 89.6 74.7 89.7 84.1 96.9 115.5 119.5IPort Duties 54.9 74.4 89.8 89.6 74.7 89.7 84.1 96.9 115.5 119.5

Other Taxes (Stasp duties) 3.0 3.9 5.0 5.4 17.5 25.8 46.7 74.5 85.5 103.9

Total Tax Revenue 275.7 318.4 388.6 417.6 456.9 512.1 540.7 605.0 636.5 675.7

Property Income 6.8 9.1 13.8 13.4 16.3 8.9 13.2 14.5 11.5 17.8Rents, Royalties, Dividends 3.8 3.9 4.6 4.7 4.2 5.5 7.3 8.5 6.9 12.1interest 1.2 !.8 2.7 2 2 t? 2.0 237 2.6 1.5 2.4

Central Bank & Exchange Profits 1.8 3.5 6.5 6.5 9.9 1.4 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.3Administrative Fees, Fines & Others 14.3 14.9 23.2 22.1 18.9 17.0 16.9 26.3 23.9 01.8

fotal Non-tax Revenue 21.1 24.0 37.0 35.5 35.2 25.9 30.1 40.8 35.4 41.6

Total Current Revenue 296.8 342.4 425.6 453.1 492.1 538.0 570.8 645.8 671.9 717.3

Sources: Ninistry of Fianace and Planning, Accountant General and mission estimates.

-55-

Table 5.3: BARBADOS - CENTRAL GOVERINENT EXPENDITURES BY ECONONIC CLASSIFICATIONS, 1978/79 - 1987/88

(BDt sillion)

Est.1978179 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88

loods and Services 148.1 169.2 217.1 233.2 262.7 267.5 305.6 339.7 355.7 424.2

lages and salaries 112.3 126.7 171.7 170.7 195.7 207.2 236.2 251.0 274.6 325.1Other 35.8 42.5 45.4 62.5 67.0 60.3 69.4 88.7 81.1 99.1

Interest 22.8 28.4 29.9 52.4 71.1 62.5 64.4 69.6 79.1 83.8

Domestic 17.2 18.5 20.2 37.4 50.6 47.1 39.6 49.3 33.3 48.8External 5.6 9.9 9.7 15.0 20.5 15.4 24.8 20.3 45.8 35.0

Operating Deficit of Departmental

Enterprises (Printing Department) 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8

Other Domestic Transfers 02.3 102.7 136.6 143.8 138.2 154.0 178.7 207.7 185.0 227.6

National Insurance contributions 3.4 3.3 7.6 2.4 9.5 12.2 13.3 15.9 16.1 20.6Non-financial public enterprises 11.5 16.2 27.7 28.5 21.5 18.0 17.4 20.9 19.5 23.7Pensions 14.7 16.7 19.7 22.3 26.3 29.9 33.9 35.5 40.4 45.4Non-profit institutions 1.3 1.6 3.9 1.5 1.8 2.1 5.7 5.1 4.8 6.2other transfers 19.9 23.5 26.7 28.1 13.0 7.5 12.3 18.5 15.2 16.0Other public institutions 31.5 41.4 51.0 61.0 66.1 84.3 96.1 111.9 88.9 115.8

Regional & International Agencies 2.0 2.9 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.3 4.2 6.0 4.9 6.0

TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURES 256.0 304.2 307.1 433.7 476.9 408.6 554.5 624.6 626.4 743.4

Sources: Ninistry of Fikance and Planning; Accountant General and mission estieates.

-56-

Table 5.4: SAMADOS - CENTRL. GOVEIIIEET CAPITAL EXPENDITURES BT ECONONIC CLASSIFICATIONS, 1978/79 - 19M7/88

(i58 dillion)

Est.197B/79 1979/00 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/05 1985/86 1906/07 1907/08

Econonic Classification

Acquisition of Assets 2.7 0.0 2.0 4.3 4.7 7.0 7.5 5.1 6.1 5.0

Capital Formation 27.4 50.1 90.7 113.9 68.7 58.0 54.6 89.7 106.0 130.6

Transfers 34.5 35.3 44.0 40.3 27.8 34.9 34.6 27.5 15.5 35.0

Non-financial Public Enterprises 30.4 31.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 22.8 7.6 11.4

Public Financial Institutions 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 4.0

ahroad 1.3 1.2 7.1 5.7 1.7 6.0 3.4 1.2 6.8 19.5

Other Peblic Institutions 0.6 1.5 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.9

Net Lending 7.6 0.4 5.1 14.8 40.0 36.5 34.8 46.7 35.6 38.8

Enuity Contributions 5.2 0.2 4.5 14.7 14.8 25.7 20.0 19.6 21.4 21.4

Loans and advances a/ 2.4 0.2 0.6 0.1 25.2 10.8 14.0 27.1 14.2 17.4

Total Capital Expenditure & Net

Lending b/ 72.2 85.8 141.8 173.3 141.2 136.4 131.5 169.0 164.0 218.2

a/ Includes IDS824 sillion loan to the Fetroleu Company in 1982/03.b/ 1982/83-03/84 includes expenditures of the Transport LGvy Fund.

Sources: Ninistry of Finance and Planning; Accountant General and sission estieates.

-57-

Table 5.5: BARADOS - CENTML 6WYEhUNT TRANSFERS, 1978/79 - 1987/88

(IDM ii!ion)

1st.1979/79 1°79/80 1980/81l981/82 1982/03 1983/84 1984/8S 198S/86 1966/87 !987/88

Current Transfers 85. 1 106.6 140.1 140.1 143.1 158.6 184.5 215.3 191.6 235.4

Non-financial Public Enterprises 11.5 16.2 27.7 28.5 21.5 18.0 17.4 20.9 19.5 23.7National Housing Corporation 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.9 2.9 2.8 3.2 2.7 31 3.4Vltermorks Department 2.7 3.2 7.3 5.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Post Office 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 1.0B'dos Industrial Dev. Corp. 1.2 1.7 2.9 3.0 2.5 2.2 3.1 3.0 3.4 4.3Transport Board 4.5 7.6 11.9 15.0 14.5 13.0 10.8 14.0 12.4 15.05'dos Narketing Corporation 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Operating deficit of DePartmentalEnterprise (Printing Office) 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8

Other Public Institutions 31.5 41.4 51.0 61.0 66.1 84.3 961 111.9 68.9 115.8Barbados Defense Force 1.3 2.1 5.1 7.5 9.7 11.9 15.5 16.7 12.0 19.3Schools, colleges a universities 15.1 21.4 22.0 25.7 25.3 38.2 37.2 50.2 30.9 32.8Touriss promtion 4.2 5.3 6.3 7.5 10.2 11.5 15.4 16.5 13.8 16.3Sanitation services 5.2 6.2 8.1 9.2 8.9 11.2 10.9 10.9 11.8 12.1Parks and beaches 2.3 2.3 3.3 4.1 3.4 3.0 6.6 5.7 6.2 16.6 '

Export prmotion 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.0Caves Authority 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0eelfare agencies 2.7 3.0 4.3 5.4 6.6 6.9 7.7 9.6 11.6 14.9other 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.6 1.3 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.5 2.8

National Insurance Board 3.4 3.3 7.6 2.4 9.5 12.2 13.3 15.9 16.1 20.6Non-profit Institutions 1.3 1.6 3.9 1.5 1.8 2.1 5.7 5.1 4.6 6.2Pensions 14.7 16.7 19.7 22.3 26.3 29.9 33.9 35.5 40.4 45.4other Transfers to Individuals 19.9 23.5 26.7 28.1 13.0 7.5 12.3 12.9 15.2 16.0

lelfare grants 16.4 19.4 21.5 22.4 9.6 4.1 5.8 6.2 8.4 7.7Scholarships and bursaries 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.9School bus fares 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 2.4 2.2 1.5 2.0Other 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3

Contribution te Reuional andInternational Organizations 2.0 2.9 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.3 4.2 6.0 4.9 6.0

Other Transfers a/ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0

Capital Transfers 34.5 35.3 44.0 40.3 27.8 34.9 34.6 27.5 15.5 35.8

Non-financial Public Enterprises 30.4 31.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 22.8 7.6 11.4National Housing Corporation 4.3 6.6 8.3 6.0 6.0 3.6 5.6 12.9 4.5 5.7B'dos Agric. Dev. Corp. b/ 3.8 0.2 0.8 5.1 3.1 4.2 2.8 2.8 2.2 3.2Civil Aviation 11.5 10.1 3.6 2.4 0.2 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0laterNorks Department 3.1 4.0 4.9 3.7 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Post Office 0.0 2.0 4.4 4.0 1.5 3.7 4.7 2.2 0.4 0.0B'dos Industrial Dev. Corp. 4.1 5.7 6.7 5.8 5.5 7.3 4.4 2.9 0.5 2.4Transport Board c/ 1.2 2.0 2.5 4.1 6.0 6.7 7.9 1.0 0.0 0.0B'dos Narketing Corporation 2.4 0.4 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

Other Institutions 0.6 1.5 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.9Caves Authority 0.2 0.6 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Parks and beaches 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.9

Public Financial Institutions 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 4.0Transfers Abroad 1.3 1.2 7.1 5.7 1.7 6.0 3.4 1.2 6.8 19.5

a/ Subsidy to the sugar industry in 1985/86.b/ 1980/81-82/83 Includes expenditure on the Integrated Rural Development and Spring Hall Land Lease Scheme.c/ Includes transfers from the transport fund.

Sources: Ninistry of Finance and Planning ond mission estimates.

-58-

Page I of 3Table 5.6: BARBADOS - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR, 1978i79 - 1987/08

(BD$ million)

Prel. Est.1978/79 1979100 1980/81 1981/82 1902/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88

CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR

Current revenue 397.0 467.0 560.8 625.4 736.4 809.7 890.4 952.1 954.1 1030.5Current expenditure 323.0 398.4 484.7 570.5 656.5 691.5 791.1 883.2 903.5 1027.3

Current surplus/deficit H-) 74.1 78.6 76.2 54.9 79.9 118.2 89.3 68.9 50.6 3.1

! Capital revenue 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 2.2 14.9 14.3 3.3 2.5Capital expenditure 72.9 95.0 144.2 178.4 177.5 167.6 163.2 204.4 188.6 242.2

Overall surplus/deficit t-) 1.6 -15.9 -69.0 -122.9 -97.1 -47.2 -59.1 -121.2 -134.7 -236.5

Financing (net) -1.6 15.9 68.0 122.9 97.1 47.2 59.1 121.2 134.7 236.5

External 30.3 12.9 80.4 91.2 58.4 27.2 54.3 42.9 150.9 122.0Domestic -31.9 3.0 -12.4 31.7 38.7 20.0 4.8 78.3 -16.2 114.5

i. GENERAL GOVERNMENT

Current revenue 336.0 386.2 471.5 515.8 599.1 657.0 704.6 774.9 796.8 866.6Frou NFPEs 2.0 2.7 4.7 3.7 3.3 4.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.9

Current expenditure 266.8 317.6 401.2 465.0 534.5 555.4 639.7 719.4 743.1 959.6To NFPEs 11.5 16.2 27.7 28.5 21.5 18.0 17.4 20.9 19.5 23.7

Current surplus.'deficit (-) 69.2 68.6 70.3 50.8 64.6 101.6 64.9 55.5 53.7 9.0

Capital expenditure & net lending 73.1 88.0 139.3 174.1 142.4 136.8 131.8 169.2 164.2 218.4To NFPEs 30.4 ;1.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 22.8 7.6 11.4

Overall surplus/deficit (-H -3.9 -19.4 -69.0 -123.3 -77.8 -35.2 -66.9 -113.7 -110.5 -210.4

Financing (net) 3.9 19.4 69.0 123.3 77.8 35.2 66.9 113.7 110.5 210.4

Fiternal 30.3 12.9 80.4 91.2 58.4 24.7 54.3 39.9 150.9 122.0'--stic -26.4 6.5 -11.4 32.1 19.4 10.5 12.6 73.9 -40.4 88.4

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _~~~~~~ - -- - -- - - -_ -- - - - - -__ -- - - -- - - - -- -_ --- -__ _ _ _ _ __ _

-59-

Page 2 of 3Table 5.6: BARBADOS - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR, 1978179 - 1987168

(BDt aillion)

Prel. Est.1978/79 1979/80 1980/91 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984195 1985/96 1986/87 1987188

Is. CENTRAL ADNINISTRATION a/

Current revenue 330.2 379.9 465.7 511.0 595.1 655.1 694.7 768.2 794.9 965.1From NFPEs 2.0 2.7 4.7 3.7 3.3 4.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.5

Current expenditure 2U4.5 315.9 398.8 462.4 532.2 552.5 634.5 714.5 741.1 857.5To NFPEs 11.5 16.2 27.7 28.5 21.5 19.0 17.4 20.9 19.5 23.7

Current surplus/deficit W-) 65.7 63.9 66.9 49.6 62.9 102.6 60.2 53.7 53.8 7.6

Capital revenue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital expenditure & net lending 72.2 85.9 141.9 173.4 142.4 136.6 131.9 169.2 164.2 218.4To NFPEs 30.4 31.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 22.9 7.6 11.4

Overall surplus/deficit (-) -6.5 -22.0 -75.0 -124.8 -79.5 -34.0 -71.6 -115.5 -110.4 -210.9

Financing (net) 6.5 22.0 75.0 124.0 79.5 34.0 71.6 115.5 110.4 210.8

External 30.3 12.9 80.4 91.2 58.4 24.7 54.3 39.9 150.9 122.0Dasestic -23.8 9.1 -5.4 33.6 21.1 9.3 17.3 75.6 -40.5 88.8

lb. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

Current revenue 296.8 342.4 425.6 453.1 492.1 538.0 570.9 645.9 671.9 717.3Froa NFPEs 2.0 2.7 4.7 3.7 3.3 4.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.5

Current expenditure 256.0 304.2 387.1 433.7 476.9 489.6 554.5 624.6 626.4 743.4To NFPEs 11.5 16.2 27.7 29.5 21.5 19.0 17.4 20.9 19.5 23.7To other Central Adan. 3.4 3.3 7.6 2.4 9.5 12.2 13.3 15.9 16.1 20.6

Current surplus/deficit H-) 40.8 38.2 38.5 19.4 15.2 49.4 16.3 21.2 45.5 -26.1-- - --- - ---- - ------ _______-_______-_- .... __.

Capital transfers fr. other gov't 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Capital expenditure & net lending 72.2 85.8 141.8 173.3 141.2 136.4 131.5 169.0 164.0 219.2

To NFPEs 30.4 31.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 22.9 7.6 11.4

Overall surplus/deficit 1-) -31.4 -47.6 -103.3 -153.9 -126.0 -87.0 -115.2 -147.8 -118.5 -244.3

Financing (net) 31.4 47.6 103.3 153.9 126.0 87.0 115.2 147.8 118.5 244.3

External 30.3 12.9 90.9 91.3 58.4 24.7 54.3 39.9 150.9 122.0Doestic 1.1 34.7 22.4 62.6 67.6 62.3 60.9 107.9 -32.4 122.3

_- - -- - - -- -- --- -- - -- -- - - -- - - -- - - - - -__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

-60-

Page 3 of 3Table 5.6: BARBADOS - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR, 1978179 - 19971/8

(90$ million)

Prel. Est.1978/79 1979180 1990/91 1981/92 1982193 1993/84 1984195 1985/96 1986/87 1997/89

Ic. CONSOLIDATED NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC ENTERPRISES

Current revenue 74.5 99.7 121.7 141.8 162.1 175.1 195.3 198.2 176.9 199.5From general government 11.5 16.2 27.7 28.5 21.5 19.0 17.4 20.9 19.5 23.7

Current expenditure 69.6 99.6 115.9 137.7 146.8 158.5 170.9 194.0 179.9 193.3To Central government 2.0 2.7 4.7 3.7 3.3 4.5 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.9

Current surplus/deficit (-1 4.9 10.0 5.9 4.1 15.3 16.6 24.4 13.4 -3.1 -4.8

Capital revenue 30.8 31.5 33.4 31.8 25.9 29.0 43.9 37.1 10.9 13.9From Central government 30.4 31.0 33.4 31.2 25.3 27.6 29.0 22.8 7.6 11.4

Capital expenditure 30.2. 39.0 38.3 35.5 60.4 58.4 60.4 58.0 31.9 35.2

Overall surplus/deficit 5.5 3.5 1.0 0.4 -19.3 -12.0 7.9 -7.5 -24.2 -26.1

Net Financing -5.5 -3.5 -1.0 -0.4 19.3 12.0 -7.9 7.5 24.2 26.1

External (net) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0Dosestic (net) -5.5 -3.5 -1.0 -0.4 19.3 9.5 -7.9 4.5 24.2 26.1

Sourcest Kinistry of Finance and Planning; Accwuntant 6mneral's Office; and sission estimates.

-61-

Page I of 2Table 5.7: BARBADOS - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM, EXTERNALLY FINANCED PROJECTS, 1985186-90/91

(BDS million)

1985/86 1986l87 1997/88 1989199 199/90 1990/91 Total

Total Ext. Total Ext. Total Ext. Total Ext. Total Ext. Total Est. Total Ext.

Ongoing Projects

Agriculture 3.99 1.27 11.61 0.80 14.77 0.97 4.98 3.06 2.00 1.49 2.00 1.42 39.35 9.00

Springhall land lease project 0.54 0.51 0.70 1.75 0.00Scotland District Soil Conservation 0.00 0.00Project 2.90 0.91 2.13 0.80 2.57 0.77 7.50 2.48

Agricultural Development Project 2.00 1.60 2.00 1.49 2.00 1.42 6.00 4.50Bridgetown Fishing Port 9.56 11.28 2.98 1.46 22.82 1.46Batk River Project 0.65 0.36 0.41 0.22 0.20 1.29 0.56

Industry 9.70 9.70 5.60 3.19 3.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 3.00 1.50 1.50 1.00 24.90 19.39-------- ~~~~~~~~ ~ --- -----. --- ---- --- - -- ---- ----- _ _

Industrial Credit 9.10 9.70 5.60 3.19 3.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 3.oO 1.50 1.50 1.00 24.80 19.39

Tourise and Sports 0.00 0.00 0.00/ 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 1.20 12.00 9.00 6.40 4.80 20.00 15.00

Gysnasium 1.6 1.2 12.00 9.00 6.40 4.80 20.00 15.00

Energy 18.70 4.90 0.00 0.00 22.10 14.05 3.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 44.30 18.95

Petroleum Explor. & Dev. I (ONOC) 10.70 4.90 8.00 4.50 3.50 30.20 9.40Natural Gas Pipeline 10.00 6.6 10.00 6.55LP6 Plant 4.1 3.0 4.10 3.00

Transportation 13.11 3.21 38.79 18.07 40.42 23.05 17.89 11.34 7.20 3.00 4.00 3.50 106.49 52.51

Airport-West Coast Highway 6.63 21.15 8.32 22.24 11.10 7.89 4.34 57.91 23.76Access Road to Cesent Plant 0.23 9.59 4.97 7.29 5.48 16.11 10.35Road laintenace & Rebabilitation 3.74 0.70 3.44 1.69 7.29 4.01 8.00 5.50 6.00 3.00 4.00 3.50 32.47 19.40Container Crane 2.51 2.51 5.60 3.19 3.60 2.46 2.00 1.50 1.20

Education 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 2.27 0.94 2.40 2.07 24.07 17.57 0.00 0.00 29.74 20.98

Education Project It 1.00 0.50 2.27 0.84 2.40 2.07 24.07 17.57 29.74 20.98

Health 2.74 0.00 9.01 5.35 5.30 4.27 4.91 3.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.96 13.59

OE Hospital & 6lebe Polyclinics 2.74 9.0 5.4 5.3 4.3 4.9 4.0 21.96 13.59

Housing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.97 5.99 13.48 11.59 9.55 9.21 0.00 0.00 30.00 25.79

Housing Project (Venezuela) 6.97 5.99 13.48 11.59 9.55 9.21 30.00 25.79

Total - Ongoing Projects 49.24 19.58 65.00 27.41 94.93 51.17 50.76 34.23 57.82 40.76 13.90 10.72 331.55 183.87__- - -- - - - -- - - - -- - -- - -- - - ----- .. - _. -- ..... .-- - --- -----. _

_ - -- - - -- - - - - -- _ _ -- - - - -- - - - - - - -- -_ _ _ - - - -- -- - -I-- -- -- - - - - -

-62-

table Vs. 948A*0 - PIJIIC SECTP IMVEBThT PR059N, EITEANALLY FIWINCE PIOECS, 198/86-90191 ae2o2

(got aillioul

1981516 1986/87 1997/U1 1918189 1919/90, 1990/91 Total

Total Est. Total Est. Total Est. Total Ext. Total Est. Total Ext, Total Fxt.

rjKctS far abich financing is required

Agriculture 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00 2.00 1.16 12.50 7.90 26.40 18.00 41.15 217.0 6

Abattoir 0.50 0.36 1.10 0.36 3.40 2.00 5.00 2.7'Cut Flowrs Production 0.50 0.66 2.00 1.40 2.80 2.06rixheine hvelopment 0.50 4.00 2.50 5.50 3.50 10.00 6.30Central Aqronomkic Resarch Lab. 0.40 0.20 3.00 2.00 3.4.)0 7Irrigation levelopeet 0.25 1.00 0.90 4.00 2.60 6.00 4.60 t1.25 8.00Uvetatck Deveapeent Fund 0.60 0.40 1.20 0.50 3.10 1.:CLivestock Production 1.00 0.70 2.70 1.70 3.!O 2.00lN ilkYIikJuics Processing Plant 0.6 0.5 3.0 2.0 '2.60 2.48

Industry 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 8.00 4.40 8.00 4.40 1.40 0.90 17.70 9.i0

lndustrial Estates (1931 0.3 8.00 4.40 9.00 4.40 1.40 0.30 17.70 9.n1,

Health 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 3.10 5.00 LZI

South Cout Sewage Project 5.00 3.70 53.00 3.!0Nest Coat eserage Project 0.00 0.00Upgrading of Geriatric Health Services 9.10 :.00Greater Bridgetom heewige 0.00 0.30Upgrading of Rlental Health Services 0.00 T. O

rfansortation 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 20.00 21.50 25.20 14.70 45.50 26.2C

BridgetwAn Traffic Kuanagst 0.30 10.00 6.50 14.00 9.10 24.30 15.60Road Maintenance I Rehabilitatimo 10.00 3.00 11.20 5.60 21.220 10.60

Education 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.20 3.40 7.50 4.50 7.50 4.50 22.20 12.40

Education I Training ProJect III 0.01' 3.00ftudent Revolving Loan Fund III 4.00 2.60 4.~O 2.60Confer nc Cetr22 .0 7.50 4.50 7.50 4.50 17.2.0 Q.90

Housing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.00 0.00 6.00 2.90 6.00 2.9 " 5.00 51.90

Nlational Low lncome Housing 3.00 6.00 2.90 6.00 2.90 15s.".)s.sc.

other '3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.00 3.17 2.50 M.0 1.80 7.00 1.30 n9 0.10

Coastal ConservAtion 0.7 3.2 2.5 1.0 1.8 31.0 1.8 9.87 6.10

Total - Nli ProjKcts 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.25 0.00 22.67 11.46 5.7.30 33.00 74.50 46.00 155.42 90.46

Tctal 49.24 19.58 65.00 27.41 96.08 51.1 73.41 45.69 114.62 73.76 69.40 56.72 486.97 274.3:

ongoing 49.24 19.58 65.00 27.41 94.83 51.17 50.76 34.23 57.82 40.76 13.90 10.722 331.55 239.9.3one o.0o 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.25 0.00 22.67 11.46 57.00 33.00 74.50 46.00 155.42 231.92

Ireits !.I1 1.33 18.10 3.39 7.81 4.66 7.50 3.99 10.55 7.3B 5.50 5.00 34.57 29.45

00611KB '..:I '.,. :9.10 5.19 7.81 4.66 7.50 3.99 6.55 3.38 2.50 1.00 46.51.7 21.45lo0bel Credit IV 10.10 1.00 1.00 1.80 4.0 2.0 2.70 1.05 210.00 5.35

itudeet Revolving C-ind 11 0.2!1 9.1Z 1.90 1.20 1.81 0.86 1.50 0.99 1.25 0.83 6.57 i.0!"nousnng Guarantee Progroaie 'SAI 4.90 2.90 53.60 7.19 3.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 3.00 1.50 1.50 1.00 20. 0 11.59

OEM o~~~~~~~~~~~.r 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 8.0 9.7~Global Loan V (IDB11DD) 0.30 0.00Global Loan III (SOBIEIBI 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 8.00 8.00

Sourcesa Ministry of Fintance and Planning; and mission estimates.09: 02112168

-63-

Table 6.13 BARBADOS - SUNNARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTE", 1980-87

(8BS million)

ODceaber September

1990 1981 1932 1983 1984 1995 1986 1986 1997

Net International Reserves a/ 151.0 111.0 142.0 154.3 156.2 223.5 213.0 128.3 276.5

Central Bank (net) 146.3 135.1 151.4 165.5 139.2 170.5 196.3 112.0 230.7Assets 164.1 206.9 251.6 260.0 250.2 293.9 320.0 255.9 309.0Liabilities 17.9 71.8 100.2 94.5 111.0 113.4 123.7 143.0 79.3

Commercial Binks (net) 4.7 -24.1 -9.4 -11.2 17.0 53.0 16.7 15.5 45.8

Net Overseas Operations -39.4 -44.6 -49.3 -52.9 -52.8 -53.5 -50.4 -52.8 -62.1

Net Domestic Assets 696.4 999.8 929.6 996.9 1079.3 1140.7 1263.0 1312.9 1327.9

Net Claims on Public Sector 50.2 103.0 138.2 91.9 110.2 45.7 96.6 195.5 83.2Net Central 6overnment b/ 205.4 248.4 3d1.1 292.7 319.6 277.4 293.0 403.2 286.9Net Other General Governomnt -37.2 -33.6 -43.4 -49.6 -50.5 -52.3 -49.0 -49.4 -56.6Net Other Decentralized Agencies -22.4 -22.7 -18.2 -29.0 -25.7 -29.9 -15.9 -11.1 -7.3Net Social Security Fund -95.6 -89.1 -109.3 -124.2 -133.2 -149.5 -142.5 -147.2 -139.8

Official Capital and Surplus -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0Credit to Rest of Fianancial Syste 47.4 83.3 84.9 84.9 119.7 125.0 115.1 130.9 120.9Credit to Private Sector 593.0 723.1 747.3 835.8 857.4 992.9 971.6 951.9 1071.4Export Credit guarantee -3.7 -5.7 -6.6 -8.3 -3.6 -2.8 -3.2 -3.8 -3.0Nansonetary Inter'l Organizations -2.6 -1.6 -1.0 -2.2 -2.0 -1.7 -1.9 -1.6 -1.3Net Unclassified Assets -5.4 -10.7 -63.9 -26.5 -39.5 64.5 18.3 10.9 23.3Net Interbank Float 27.5 27.4 50.8 51.2 57.1 37.1 66.4 49.2 53.4

Counterpart Unrequited Foreign

Exchange 16.2 18.8 17.8 16.9 15.9 17.9 19.8 19.6 21.2

NILT Foreign Liabilities cl 29.6 77.7 80.4 117.4 109.9 134.3 113.1 119.3 109.6

Liabilities to Rest of Financial

System 41.1 58.3 57.3 63.8 78.4 54.9 30.9 35.4 69.5

Liabilities to Private Sector 711.1 810.4 866.9 900.2 978.5 1103.7 1253.9 1215.1 1343.0

Currency outside Banks 99.1 111.3 110.6 114.1 119.1 123.5 137.4 145.2 139.9Demand Deposits 128.3 118.5 116.7 132.9 136.0 165.8 210.2 190.2 206.5°uasi-liquid Liabilities 472.1 567.2 626.5 646.1 702.5 792.8 872.4 945.9 964.4Private and Capital Surplus 12.6 13.4 13.0 7.1 21.9 21.6 33.9 33.9 32.3

a/ Includes eediu-tere foreign liabilities of the Central Dank of Barbados.b/ Loans in foreign currency to the Government by the First National lank of Chicago, odise

branch office in Barbados closed in 1978, are treated as foreign borrowing throughout.c/ Includes counterpart deposits of the Governunt's foreign assets.

Sources: Central Bank of 0aroados; INF.

-64-

Table 6.2: BARBADOS - SUlNARY ACCOUNTS OF THE IONETARY AUTHORITIES, 1980-87

(BDS million)

December September

1980 1961 1982 1903 1984 1985 1986 l996 1987

Net International Reserves 146.3 135.1 151.4 165.5 139.2 170.5 l96.3 112.8 230.7

Assets 164.1 206.9 251.6 260.0 250.2 283.9 320.0 255.8 309.0Liabilities a/ 17.8 71.8 100.2 94.5 111.0 113.4 123.7 143.0 78.3

Net Domestic Assets 51.9 124.8 115.1 120.7 151.2 130.5 111.5 203.4 82.9

Net Claims an Public Sector 38.5 66.4 93.6 64.1 60.9 6.8 -29.2 51.5 -81.9Net Central Government 73.2 100.2 133.5 110.0 107.3 55.9 14.5 99.9 -31.2Assets b/ 87.4 129.8 134.0 129.9 121.4 127.5 117.3 120.0 118.7Liabilities 14.2 28.6 0.5 19.8 14.1 71.6 102.8 21.1 149.9Net Other General Government -30.3 -32.0 -36.3 -42.4 -42.5 -44.3 -42.8 -44.0 -48.7Net Other Decentralized Agencies -2.4 -1.8 -1.8 -2.4 -2.4 -3.3 0.0 -1.3 0.0Net Social Security Fund -2.0 0.0 -1.8 -1.1 -1.5 -1.5 -0.9 -2.1 -2.0

Official Capital and Surplus -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0Credit to Ca nercial Banks 1.2 7.5 17.9 22.1 17.9 1.9 0.7 0.5 8.4Credit to Rest of Financial System 23.9 49.1 42.8 37.4 63.4 59.3 64.1 76.3 72.9Barbados Development Dank shares 0.0 2.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0Export Credit 6uarantee -3.7 -5.7 -6.6 -8.3 -3.6 -2.8 -3.2 -3.9 -3.0Nonsonetary Inter'l Organizations -2.6 -1.6 -1.0 -2.2 -2.0 -1.7 -1.8 -1.6 -1.3Net Unclassified Assets 6.7 19.1 -24.6 13.6 19.6 72.0 85.9 85.5 92.9

SDR Allocation 16.2 18.8 17.8 16.9 15.9 17.8 19.9 19.6 21.2

K&LT Foreign Liabilities 18.0 62.1 59.9 71.5 64.3 57.3 50.0 53.0 41.2

Liabilities to C6(USAID SOP loan) 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Liab. to rest of Financial system 65.9 67.7 76.5 81.4 90.4 102.7 99.1 95.8 108.9

Commercial Banks 59.6 66.9 75.5 79.9 87.3 97.8 96.1 93.6 105.1Rest of Banking System 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Rest of Financial Institutions 2.9 0.9 1.0 1.5 3.1 4.9 2.0 2.2 3.8

Liabilities to Private Sector 98.1 111.3 110.6 114.1 119.1 123.5 137.4 145.2 139.8

Currency in Circulation 98.1 111.3 110.6 114.1 118.1 123.5 137.4 145.2 139.8

a/ Includes sediur-tere foreign liabilities of the Central Bank of Barhados.b/ 1980 includes Central Dank subscription to Trinidad and Tobago dollar loan.

Sourcess Central Bank of Barbados; INF.

-65-

Table 6.3t BRRADOS - SUMKARY ACCOUNTS OF THE COMMERCIAL EAs, 1980-87

(IDS dillion)

Decembr September

1M80 1981 1982 1983 1994 195 1986 1986 1997

Net International Reserves 4.7 -24.1 -9.4 -11.2 17.0 53.0 16.7 15.5 45.8

Assets 47.7 43.8 46.4 46.5 80.0 87.8 103.0 67.7 96.1Liabilities a/ 43.0 67.9 55.8 57.7 63.0 34.9 86.3 52.2 50.3

Net Overseas Operations -39.4 -44.6 -49.3 -52.8 -52.0 -53.5 -50.4 -52.8 -62.1

Assets 5.1 6.8 6.4 7.1 12.7 13.1 15.2 13.0 21.5Uabilities 44.5 51.4 55.7 59.9 65.5 66.6 65.6 65.9 83.6

Nonet. Reserves & Currency Holdings 62.9 67.2 76.0 91.9 93.1 99.5 106.3 104.9 107.5

Net Domestic Assets 595.0 709.1 749.6 817.7 858.4 919.4 1029.1 993.9 1112.3

Net Clain on Public Sector 30.9 60.4 77.8 50.3 81.6 77.7 153.0 180.2 215.2Net Central boverneent 131.7 147.4 174.1 172.6 211.3 220.0 275.3 301.3 313.6Assets 142.9 161.0 187.9 180.4 233.0 240.5 295.2 323.1 334.5Liabilities 11.1 13.6 13.8 15.8 21.7 20.5 19.9 21.8 20.9

Net Other General overneent -6.9 -1.6 -7.1 -6.2 -8.0 -8.0 -5.2 -5.4 -7.9Net Other Decentralized Agencies -20.0 -20.9 -16.4 -25.6 -23.3 -26.6 -15.9 -9.8 -7.3Net Social Security Fund -74.0 -64.5 -72.9 -90.5 -98.4 -107.7 -101.2 -105.9 -93.2

Official Capital and Surplus -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -9.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -9.0Credit to Rest Of Banking System 1.6 5.0 6.6 5.6 8.4 1.1 2.4 7.2 4.1Credit to Rest of Financial Systeo 23.6 34.2 42.0 47.5 56.3 65.7 51.0 54.5 48.0

Public Institutions 15.6 17.9 18.4 23.0 35.2 50.3 31.0 34.0 23.7Private Institutions 8.0 16.3 23.6 24.5 21.1 15.4 20.0 20.5 24.3

Credit to Private Sector 521.4 618.0 645.0 729.9 741.9 769.4 917.2 901.5 876.1Net Unclassified Assets -8.6 -21.2 -31.3 -31.9 -49.1 -12.0 -26.3 -62.9 -57.6Net Interbank Float 24.2 20.7 17.5 24.4 26.3 25.5 38.8 21.2 34.5

NILT Foreign Liabilities a/ 9.8 13.3 19.7 45.1 44.8 76.2 62.3 64.5 64.8

Liabilities to lonetary Authorities 1.2 5.4 16.2 26.1 24.3 15.1 13.5 13.9 22.7

Uab. to Rest of Financial System 40.2 58.8 62.9 73.3 92.0 65.0 46.7 50.8 75.4

Trust Companies 1.9 1.4 6.6 11.0 16.7 15.0 9.9 17.6 10.7Public Non-bank Institutions 6.2 14.9 14.3 3.6 7.3 -6.2 -16.9 -14.7 8.2Private Non-bank Institutions 32.1 42.5 42.0 58.7 68.0 56.2 53.7 47.9 56.5

Liabilities to Private Sector 562.0 630.1 669.1 691.0 754.6 852.1 978.2 932.2 1038.6

Dasand Deposits 129.3 118.5 116.7 132.9 136.0 165.8 210.2 190.2 206.5Time, Savings I Foreign CurrencyDeposits 421.9 498.9 541.1 553.0 599.4 667.4 738.1 712.2 903.0

Private Capital and Surplus 11.9 12.7 10. 3 5.1 19.2 18.9 29.9 29.8 29.1

___ __._ ____ ________ _ _ ________ _ . _ ______ __ - __ __ -

a/ Loans in foreign currency to the 6overnment by the First National Dank of Chicago, ehosebranch office in Barbados closed in 1978, are treated as foreign borroving throughout.

Sourcess Central Bank of Barbados; lIE.

-66-

Table 6.4: BARBADOS - DETAILED ACCOUNTS OF THE TRUST CONPANIES, 1980-87

(D00 sillian)

Decenber September

1980 1991 1982 1903 1984 1995 1986 1986 1987

Xonetary Reserves & Currency

Holdings 3.5 2.2 27.9 25.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Domestic Assets 50.9 74.1 67.7 76.3 88.9 104.2 115.8 120.0 144.0

Net Claims an Public Sector -19.1 -23.9 -33.2 -32.5 -32.3 -38.9 -37.2 -36.2 -50.1Net Central Government 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.5 3.2 3.0 4.5Net Social Security Fund -19.6 -24.6 -33.7 -32.6 -33.3 -40.3 -40.4 -39.2 -54.6

Credit to Commercial Banks ' 1.9 1.4 6.6 11.0 16.7 15.0 9.9 17.6 10.7Credit to Private Sector 71.6 105.1 102.3 106.0 115.5 123.5 154.4 150.4 195.3Nortgage Loans (private) 57.9 72.2 78.8 79.1 96.8 9.4 118.0 111.8 140.9Nortgage Loans (other) 4.7 5.5 5.1 4.9 4.3 4.0 3.3 3.4 2.7kortgage Loans (industrial andcommercial) 9.1 9.9 11.7 15.6 18.2 19.4 32.5 29.8 37.9Otber Loans 0.9 17.5 6.7 6.4 6.2 5.7 0.6 5.4 13.9

Net Unclassified ssets -3.5 -8.6 -9.0 -8.2 -11.0 4.5 -11.3 -11.8 -11.9

K&LT Foreign Liabilities 1.8 2.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.6

Uiabilities to Commercial Banks 1.6 5.0 6.6 5.6 9.4 1.1 2.4 7.2 4.1

Liabilities to Private Sector 51.0 69.0 99.1 95.1 105.8 128.1 138.3 137.7 164.6

Time Deposits 50.3 68.3 95.4 93.1 103.1 125.4 134.3 133.7 161.4Private Capital and Surplus 0.7 0.7 2.7 2.0 2.7 2.7 4.0 4.0 3.2

Sourcess Central Dank of Barbados; IHF.

-67-

Table 6.5s BARBADOS - COMOERCIAL BANKS SELECTED INTEREST RATES, 1968-87

(Percentage per Annual

Period PriseEnded Savings 3 months 6 months 12 months Lending

1968 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 9.01969 4.5 6.0 6.5 6.5 8.51970 4.5 6.5 6.75 6.75 8.51971 4.5 6.25 6.5 6.5 8.51972 3.5 5.5 6.0 6.0 8.51973 3.5-6.0 7.0-10.0 7.0-10.0 7.0-10.0 10.0-11.01974 4.5-8.0 7.5-10.0 7.5-10.0 7.5-10.0 10.0-12.01975 3.0-7.0 3.5-6.5 4.5-6.5 5.0-7.0 9.0-10.01976 2.5-7.0 3.5-4.5 4.0-5.0 4.25-5.0 7.5-8.51977 2.5-5.0 3.5-5.0 4.0-5.0 3.75-5.0 7.5-8.01978 3.0-5.0 3.5-5.0 4.0-5.0 3.75-6.0 9.0-8.51979 3.0-5.0 3.5-4.5 4.0-5.0 3.75-5.5 9.0-8.51980 5.0-5.25 5.0-5.5 5.25-6.0 5.5-6.5 9.0-9.51981 9.0 8.5-9.5 7.0-9.0 7.B-9.3 13.0-14.01982 6.0 6.5-9.5 6.5-10.0 7.0-10.0 10.0-13.51983 5.0-5.5 5.5-7.5 6.0-8.0 6.0-8.0 10.0-11.01984 5.0-5.5 5.0-7.0 6.0-7.0 6.0-7.5 10.5-11.51995 4.0-4.5 4.0-5.5 4.25-5.5 4.5-5.5 8.8-9.51986 3.0 3.0-4.0 ... ... 8.3-8.81987 a/ 3.0 3.0-5.0 ... ... 8.3-8.9

a/ As of the end of June.

Sourcess East Caribbean Currency Authority; Central Bank of Barbados.

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Table 7.1: BARBADOS - CONSUNER PRICE INDEX, JANUARY 1980 - OCTOBER 1997

(In percent)

Alcoholic Household fedical Education,keverages Fuel O Qperations Clothing/ & Perso- Recreation & All

Food & Tobacco Housing Light & Supplies Footwear nal care Transport Niscellaneous Itees

Neights 43.2 8.4 3.1 6.2 9.6 5.1 6.0 4.6 3.8 100.0

Annual Average

1980 103.8 106.6 102.0 100.9 103.0 105.7 103.0 103.0 102.0 103.51981 119.3 114.9 126.9 107.9 114.4 124.2 115.9 117.1 115.2 118.61992 129.0 130.4 154.0 110.7 123.2 129.4 134.6 139.0 121.5 130.81983 131.4 144.2 168.3 119.1 127.6 132.3 144.8 147.0 129.3 137.71994 136.6 153.2 182.6 122.2 125.4 131.4 161.7 154.9 135.9 144.11985 143.7 156.1 198.7 120.9 123.2 130.2 166.3 159.5 137.9 149.71996 147.1 163.0 199.3 113.6 119.8 129.4 164.8 167.3 149.7 151.71987 152.9 173.4 207.8 113.7 119.7 121.0 160.4 169.8 149.2 156.0

End of Period

1979 98.4 96.3 97.9 93.7 98.5 97.7 99.2 94.2 98.3 97.91990 110.6 112.9 122.1 107.7 109.2 115.8 106.4 105.4 107.3 111.61991 124.5 115.8 148.6 105.4 117.6 130.5 125.8 123.8 122.3 125.31982 127.6 135.8 166i.6 118.9 126.3 129.5 142.2 144.8 123.9 133.91993 136.6 147.8 170.5 122.7 127.9 133.1 146.5 149.6 134.6 141.21984 142.0 152.0 194.4 125.0 126.1 132.7 163.6 157.0 135.5 149.41995 148.0 155.5 200.1 119.0 124.0 129.9 163.4 170.1 138.5 151.91996 149.5 164.7 195.2 110.4 117.0 114.5 164.9 165.9 153.0 151.21987 156.0 179.3 213.1 116.0 120.8 118.0 174.1 172.1 146.0 159.1

Note: 1987 average was based on 10 months; and end of period is October.

Sourcess Barbados Statistical Service.

-69-

Table 7.2: BARBADOS - #AGE INDEX, 1977-9U a/

(1990: 100)

1977 1979 1979 1980 1981 1992 1983 1984 1995 1986

All Sectors 70.0 77.5 93.2 100.0 110.5 123.0 130.1 142.0 148.9 155.9

Hotels 75.0 80.0 98.0 100.0 134.0 134.0 146.0 151.8 161.7 163.1Distribution 76.0 76.0 76.0 100.0 100.0 138.0 139.0 164.1 164.1 164.1Sugar 65.0 78.0 78.0 100.0 100.0 107.2 120.0 135.1 135.1 141.8Transport 78.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 133.0 137.0 157.0 156.6 170.4 170.46overnment 64.0 76.9 77.0 100.0 100.0 111.0 113.0 126.6 133.0 144.6Construction 63.0 74.0 74.0 100.0 119.0 118.0 118.0 127.9 143.2 159.2Telephone 60.0 74.0 74.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 120.0 126.6 153.2 160.6Electricity 79.0 79.0 100.0 100.0 129.9 129.9 156.0 156.3 171.9 175.3Longshoreaen 62.0 77.0 77.0 100.0 100.0 119.0 119.0 137.5 137.5 151.3Manufacturing 74.4 79.0 89.9 100.0 113.8 129.1 140.4 144.6 151.0 160.9garments 64.0 77.0 77.0 100.0 100.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 137.8 137.8Beverages 76.0 90.0 100.0 100.0 137.7 137.7 163.0 169.4 169.4 189.9Food 77.0 80.0 97.0 100.0 137.0 137.0 156.0 158.0 171.1 174.3Chemicals 59.0 69.0 76.0 100.0 1O5.0 129.0 134.0 155.2 158.7 174.5Electronics b/ 89.0 83.0 101.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 136.0 141.2 146.3 165.7

a/ The index for each sector is based on a simple average of wages inrepresentative job categories. Sector weights are based on share in totalemployment when available, and on share in contribution to GOP when not.Includes only wages negotiated through collective bargaining except for theelectronics industry.

b/ Da-W un a survey conducted by the Central Bank of the five largest establishments.

Sources: IMF; Ministry of Labor.

-70-

Table 8.1: BARBADOS - PRODUCTION OF SELECTED ABRICULTUPAL COICODITIES, 1977-87

Units('000) 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1902 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Export agriculture

Sugarcane (a) NT 1045 895 1052 1204 962 766 705 913 794 1115 834Onions (b) Kg. 674 743 545 472 396 432 764 549 776 468 568Peanuts (c) Kg. 37 51 ... ... - 60 18 32 52 27 35Cotton (d) Kg. 27 16 17 12 - - - 7 37 42 19

Domestic food crops

Yams Kg. 4995 8528 8315 7817 4064 4500 2300 3195 2943 1989 2460Sweet potatoes Kg. 1074 990 2255 4705 3048 3700 2800 1957 2066 2192 3578Beets Kg. 382 384 831 356 507 480 387 230 359 258 325Pumpkins Kg. 67 283 135 - 527 493 576 208 362 335 971Carrots Kg. 497 1814 2143 2395 2145 2416 1960 1099 844 985 1561String beans Kg. 179 181 298 521 510 509 226 384 384 409 546Totatoes Kg. 122 728 702 1636 1055 1208 297 496 372 434 552Cucumbers Kg. 590 1755 968 - 1808 1701 167 307 321 299 445Cabbage Kg. 260 816 1130 1717 1399 1577 531 1074 767 944 791

Livestock products

Pigs (c) Kg. 454 1336 802 918 942 1300 713 755 938 1193 1296Cows & calves (c) Kg. 190 249 324 414 386 362 326 273 245 313 397Scats I sheep Cc) Kg. 34 21 60 58 50 21 30 21 22 20 35Poultry Cc) Kg. 3719 4274 5273 5248 6000 6700 6133 6550 6257 7443 8182Eggs Cc) Kg. 1701 1814 1600 1040 1350 1047 1800 1880 1287 1261 1980Milk Ce) Kg. 2641 2993 7483 7500 7146 7014 7758 9730 9331 10591 11735

Note: Due to a revision of the domestic food crops based on more extensive sample surveys,the series beginning in 1983 is not comparable to earlier years.

... Figure not available.

Sources: (a) Ministry of Agriculture; Sugar Producers' association.(b) Ministry of Agiculture; Barbados Agricultural Society.(c) Ministry of Agiculture; Central Bank estimates (Dead weight for pigs,cows,

calves, goats, sheep and poultry).(d) Agricultural Development Corporation.Ce) Annual reports, Barbados Dairy Industries Ltd.

-71-

Table 8.2: BARBADOS - SU6AR STATISTICS, 1977-86

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1995 1996

Area of cares reaped t'000 hectares) 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.1 15.8 15.8 14.1 14.3 13.9 13.9

Tons of canes eilled ('000) 895 895 1052 1204 962 766 705 813 792 908

Tanne yield (Tons cane/hectare reaped) 56.6 56.6 66.2 74.9 60.9 49.5 50.0 56.8 57.3 65.5

Rainfall (inches) 45.4 54.5 66.8 52.5 66.5 47.1 49.0 59.5 54.5 49.9

Sugar production ('000 tons-raw value) 124.1 104.1 118.5 136.6 97.5 89.1 95.8 100.4 100.3 111.0

Sugar yield (tons caneltons sugar) 7.2 8.6 9.9 8.9 9.9 9.6 8.2 9.1 7.9 8.2

Number of factories in operation 8 9 8 a 7 6 6 6 6 6

Exports ('000 tons-white value bl) 19.5 77.9 83.0 113.0 59.6 69.5 67.3 79.9 77.6 87.9

- to EEC 62.5 59.9 49.0 56.1 44.0 49.3 48.4

- to US 37.0 16.5 34.6 55.0 14.4 16.0 13.8

- to others 0.0 1.5 0.4 1.9 0.2 3.2 5.1 ... ...

a/ Prelisinary.b/ Sugar white value is about 93% of sugar raw value.

Sources: Barbados Sugar Producers' Association; and Annual Overseas Trade Yearbooks.

-72-

Table 8.3: BARBADOS - PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MNUFACTURED GOODS, 1977-86

1977 1978 1979 1980 1901 1982 1983 1984 1985 1996

Food Products & Beverages (I000 units)

Lard (pounds) 2733 3264 2m 3204 4864 3328 3151 2684 2233 2066Margarine (Pounds) 4333 5205 4574 4933 6999 5787 7693 6120 5696 5423Ziscuits (pounds) 8475 9213 8188 8664 7802 7612 7131 6461 6649 6697Macaroni (pounds) 2267 2619 3224 3931 4278 3999 3645 3601 3333 3657Animal Feeds (pounds) 84524 78004 87240 87591 99714 109366 95404 94329 99047 113206Nilk Products (pounds) 21337 21461 21703 21964 20573 19917 18275 19047 20600 19250Rua (gallons) 2344 2350 1640 2237 1511 1239 1299 1244 1918 1744Beer (gallons) 1608 1990 1623 1887 2028 1939 1962 1526 1466 1667Halt Beverages (gallons) 693 953 641 726 812 793 904 773 729 855Carbonated Beverages (gals.) 3875 4047 4129 4183 4312 3681 3572 3412 3210 3381Cigarettes (pounds) 418 505 507 494 573 597 531 524 438 378

Chemicals, Metal & Electrical Products IQ000)

Oxygen (cubic feet) 3107 3299 3391 4009 4393 4520 4782 4709 4517 4912Acetylene (cubic feet) 745 766 782 958 1028 1147 1157 1111 1077 995Carbon Dioxide (pounds) 676 850 758 890 655 513 614 705 710 790Paints (gallons) 272 303 331 415 364 401 372 418 330 435Nails (pounds) 201 328 375 283 423 320 352 150 320 672Barbed Mire (pounds) 131 140 136 179 490 418 345 97 - 9Storage Batteries (number) 11343 13956 15675 20861 20902 20502 16756 14121 !1515 15675

Petroleus Prod. ('000 gal.) 48998 49856 54544 56910 58066 58734 56458 59073 62566 71401

Gasoline 13763 13978 14626 14554 15441 14906 15446 14940 15559 18433Diesel 8946 10600 11301 13117 13280 12930 12742 12113 10369 11141Gas Oil 704 714 642 320 149 104 5 201 19 103Fuel Oil 21739 20952 24183 25466 26191 29089 25400 29173 33846 37742Kerosene 2594 2514 2490 2033 1933 1690 1592 1564 1541 1457Asphalt 1252 1198 1302 1420 1073 1115 1273 1082 1233 2525

Electricity (eillion kmh) 246 269 296 310 327 330 354 360 364 390

Natural 6as (min. cubic ft.) 166 339 412 469 294 309 387 698 897 940

Crude Oil (I000 barrels) 124 274 284 305 211 258 402 635 679 559

a/ Fresh milk equivalent.

Source: Barbados Statistical Service.

-73-

Table 9.4: BARBADOS - HANUFACTURINS PRODUCTION INDICES, 1975-87

lAverage 1982 a 100)

1981 1982 1993 1984 1985 1986 1987 a/

Total Industries 103.7 100.0 104.4 109.2 104.6 110.1 104.2

Nining and huarrying 100.1 100.0 118.5 161.6 174.0 163.2 153.3Electricity and Gas 98.3 100.0 116.1 121.7 130.2 137.1 140.8Nanufacturing 104.6 100.0 102.1 103.2 97.2 103.4 96.7Fhod 116.0 100.0 9.3 9.7 101.3 109.7 113.9Bverages and Tobacco 109.9 100.0 98.2 90.4 90.9 90.5 97.6gearing Apparel 102.9 100.0 106.2 110.7 93.4 75.1 83.7Wooden Furniture 124.5 100.0 116.8 115.9 101.5 109.5 117.5Chemicals 107.2 100.0 97.2 83.9 74.6 85.1 71.7Petroleue Products 100.0 100.0 97.5 99.5 103.7 116.1 113.1Other Non-metallicNlineral Products 134.2 100.0 84.3 77.8 97.2 112.9 133.5

Electronic Components 69.0 100.0 108.2 141.0 133.3 136.1 45.9Other 108.9 100.0 102.8 95.2 87.0 104.4 111.4

a/ Based on January to November data.

Souree: Barbados Statistical Service.

-74-

Table 8.5 BARBADOS - TRADE DATA FOR 806/807/1SP/CBI TRANSACTIONS iITH THE UNITED STATES, 1981-86

(USS '000)

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986US --------

Import Dutiable US Dutiable US Dutiable US Dutiable US Dutiable US Dutiable USSystem Value Value Value Value Value Value Value Value Value Value Value Value

COomodity

6arters,suspenders bodysupporting garments 807 3794 4595 4353 5389 4619 5870 27.3 3716 6987 9609 3069 3770

Other wearing apparel 807 3095 2782 3035 2474 4697 3813 2305 1883 4669 4402 3006 2751CBI - - - - - - - - - - 63 -

Office machines 807 1125 981 2029 1319 3287 2220 2398 2147 3118 2364 - -

Generators, motors,transforeers,retifiers CBI - - - - - - - - 23 -

Capacitors Cli - - - - - - 555 - 720 - 880 -Switches,relays,fuses, 907 944 707 298 514 172 227 152 164 13 37 30 191sockets,terainals 6SP 411 - 1175 - 28749 - 37265 - 1P72 - 1190 -

CBI - - - - - - 645 - 1448 - 1560 -Resistors 807 2675 1781 3274 1150 2811 853 245 1OS 45 13 - -

CaI - - - - - - 4053 - 3245 - 4030 -Autovoltage regulator 807 40 24 95 62 271 189 218 130 140 91 - -

CBI - - - - - - - - 15 - - -Electronic tubes,transistorsseei-conductors 807 4842 17838 11376 40246 19707 89051 30536 120228 6430 23722 3 4

Insulated conductorsmiring sets 807 65 27 291 122 446 226 400 422 192 363 260 265

Electrical articles 907 - - - - - - - - 9 - - -NSFP 6SP 267 - 316 - 31 - 2312 - I10S - - -

Gloves 907 1460 2105 835 1095 1413 1759 1897 2329 2303 2686 2693 3007;easuring,testing 807 902 - 1017 - 1088 - 1686 - 1480 - !134 -

controlling instruments C81 - - - - - - - - 24 - - -Fishing tackle 807 - - - - - - 28 ;9 - - - -Jeuelry I related articles 6SP 251 - 102 - 56 - 56 11 -

SUONARY

007 Total 807 20663 32493 30113 55900 43227 111529 44118 136197 25163 43995 9772 116696SP Total 6SP 15074 - 9680 - 35059 - 47742 - 13651 - 3404 -COI Total CBI - - - - - - 13311 - 11392 - 10251 -

OVERALL TOTAL 35740 32500 38793 55900 78296 111529 105171 136197 50196 43995 23427 11669

Note: Articles 8061807 provide that goods may be sent abroad for assembly and return to the US (including Puerto Rica) and that the valueof the US goods exported shall be subtracted from the value of the returning assembled product in assessing duty to be oaid.Starting April 1985, certain semi-conductors fros Rost Favored Nations (including Barbados) were exempted from US impor. duties.Data available relate only to January-Harch 1985. Total US imports of semi-conductors from Barbados in 1985 amounted to US$ 29 millionof which an estimated US$26 million would have been dutiable value added (net exports froe Barbados).

Source: The Flagstaff Institute Journal, July 1987.

-75-

Table 9.1m BARBADOS - TOURISH STATISTICS, 1979 - 87

Est1979 1980 1981 1902 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

; Total tourist days ('000) a/ 3671 3930 3486 2632 2630 2710 2375 2549 2950Stayover arrivals 1 000) 370.9 369.9 352.6 303.9 328.3 367.7 359.1 369.9 414.2Cruise-ship arrivals ('000) 110.1 156.8 135.8 110.9 102.5 99.2 112.2 145. 174.4

* Average length of stay (days) b/ 9.6 10.2 9.5 8.3 7.7 7.1 6.3 6.5 6.7Total bed capacity ('000) 11.8 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.9 ...Bed occupancy rates, all establishments (Z) 76.4 65.3 54.0 45.5 46.7 45.1 39.5 47.0 ...Tourist expenditure/head/day (USS) 54.9 63.9 75.1 95.4 95.7 104.9 116.1 130.4 135.0

Total tourist expenditure 1US$ million) 201.5 251.0 261.9 251.1 251.6 284.2 272.2 323.7 346.0

(Annual percentage change)

Total tourist days 27.3 7.1 -11.3 -24.5 -0.1 3.0 -12.4 7.3 15.7Stayover visitors 17.1 -0.3 -4.7 -13.8 8.1 12.0 -2.3 3.0 12.0Cruise-ship passengers -12.6 42.4 -13.4 -19.4 -7.5 -3.3 13.1 29.5 20.0Tourist expenditures 49.3 24.6 4.3 -4.1 0.2 13.0 -4.2 18.9 6.9Daily expenditure/head 17.2 16.4 17.6 27.0 0.3 9.6 10.7 12.3 3.5

(As percentage of GDP)

Total tourist expenditure 29.9 29.9 27.5 25.2 23.8 24.7 22.0 24.7 25.2

(As percent of total visitor arrivals)

By country of residenceUnited States 24.6 23.2 21.1 24.9 34.7 39.1 41.2 44.9 ...Canada 25.0 23.0 19.8 19.6 16.2 18.3 19.7 16.3 ...CARICON 20.5 22.8 24.6 27.0 25.6 22.9 20.0 16.6 ...United Kingdom 13.3 15.2 20.4 16.8 14.5 12.6 10.8 12.8 ...Other 16.6 15.8 14.0 11.7 9.0 8.2 8.6 9.4 ...

By intended length of stayI - 7 days 47.8 47.9 45.1 49.5 53.4 58.5 58.3 58.1 ...8 - 14 days 29.6 30.4 32.1 31.2 28.3 26.3 27.4 27.5 ...15 - 30 days 19.3 17.5 18.9 15.6 14.7 11.7 10.9 11.0 ...Over 30 days 1.7 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 ...Unspecified 1.6 2.3 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ..

a/ Stayover arrivals multiplied by average length of stay plus cruise-ship passengers.assumes average lenght of stay of tourists in establishaents which are notsurveyed is the saee as that for surveyed establishments.

b/ Applies to tourists staying in surveyed establishments only. Tourists staying inestablishments that are not surveyed represent about one third of totalstayover arrivals.

c/ Beginning in 1984, the '15 - 30 days' 7ateqory becomes '15 - 28 days', *Over 30 days'represents 829 - 182 days' and the 'Unspecified' category is eliminated.

Sources: Barbados Statistical Service; Central Dank of Barbados; and mission estieates.

-76-

Table 9.2: BARBADOS - VISITOR ARRIVALS BY COUNTRY OF RESIDENCE, 1977-87

Country of Oct.Residence 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 l1985 1986 1987

USA 70389 85473 91354 85971 74472 75511 113989 140202 148093 166250 147076

Canada 83740 90992 92745 84934 69897 59619 53198 67307 70573 60285 50648

UK 25841 36342 49430 56226 72090 51145 47662 46274 38822 47590 63293

Continental Europe 22870 30915 41031 38354 29621 21588 17334 17234 16668 18699 16350

Trinidad 22902 25198 39278 45114 43839 45046 47662 43023 32526 21966 21608

6uyana 4552 6048 10147 10833 12247 10164 11159 12889 12364

Leeward & Mindvard 19450 22040 23443 26435 28802 23372 22228 24751 23307 40367 32579) I

Jaeaica 2442 2268 3098 3026 3247 3138 3569 3784 3566

Venezuela 5914 6438 6515 5411 4754 3909 2338 1503 1271 1669 1376

Others 11574 11179 13875 13611 13622 10403 9186 10695 11945 13044 12023

Total 269674 316883 370916 369915 352591 303795 328325 367652 359135 359135 359135

(In Percentl

USA 26.1 27.0 24.6 23.2 21.1 24.9 34.7 38.1 41.2 46.3 41.0

Canada 31.1 28.7 25.0 23.0 19.8 19.6 16.2 18.3 19.7 16.8 14.1

UK 9.6 11.5 13.3 15.2 20.4 16.8 14.5 12.6 10.8 13.3 17.6

Continental Europe 8.5 9.8 11.1 10.4 8.4 7.1 5.3 4.7 4.6 5.2 4.6

Trinidad 8.5 7.9 10.6 12.2 12.4 14.9 14.5 11.7 9.1 6.1 6.0

Guyana 1.7 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.41 3

Leeward & Minduard 7.2 7.0 6.3 7.1 8.2 7.7 6.9 6.7 6.5 11.2 9.1

Jamaica 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 ). ~ ~~~~ )

Venezuela 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4

Others 4.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.3

Total 100.C 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Ministry of Tourism and the Environment (formerly Ministry of Civil Aviation and Tourise).

-77-

Table 9.3: BARBADOS - AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY OF GUESTS BY TYPE OF ACCOMM?ODATION

Hotel Category------------- uest Apartment Apart- All

Year I II III Houses Hotels aents Establishments

1977 1.5 7.2 5.6 3.3 10.3 11.7 9.0

1978 7.4 6.2 3.9 4.3 10.6 13.2 9.1

1979 6.8 6.7 4.7 4.2 10.5 16.9 9.9

19B0 7.2 5.6 5.9 4.7 9.7 15.0 9.9

1981 7.0 6.9 7.0 3.7 11.6 13.1 9.6

1982 6.6 6.0 6.7 3.0 10.7 9.7 9.3

1983 5.9 3.8 5.7 3.8 10.3 8.7 7.7

1984 5.6 5.6 5.0 3.9 7.9 9.6 7.1

1985 5.6 5.5 4.7 4.0 6.9 7.6 6.3

1996 5.6 5.7 4.9 3.9 6.9 7.8 6.5

1987 est. 5.4 5.4 4.4 4.1 6.9 9.0 6.5

Source: Barbados Statistical Service.

-78-

Table 9.4: BARBADOS - PERCENTAGE BED OCCUPANCY BY TYPE OF ACCONNODATION,1976-87

HotelsAll ----------------------- Suest Apartment

Period Establishaents Broup I Group II Group III Houses Hotels Apartments…__ __--- - -- - -- - --- _ ----- ___---- _ _…_-----

1976 44.7 53.9 36.1 22.1 19.4 50.4 45.9

1977 54.1 61.3 40.4 40.7 25.4 53.4 55.1

1978 59.3 71.5 38.0 40.3 24.4 64.7 60.3

1979 76.4 72.5 46.3 44.6 32.1 70.9 84.3

1980 65.3 69.6 44.5 44.1 27.5 69.9 66.2

1981 54.0 52.1 35.4 43.7 21.3 66.0 58.8

1982 45.5 47.2 34.5 29.6 18.5 45.9 41.5

1993 46.7 57.6 32.6 31.0 16.0 51.5 37.8

1984 45.1 51.0 42.3 22.5 24.7 55.1 36.8

1985 39.5 52.0 50.9 20.2 22.0 34.1 30.0

1986 47.0 57.1 52.9 16.6 26.5 50.7 39.9

1987 est. 54.6 62.9 53.8 18.9 35.9 57.1 53.4

Source: Barbados Statistical Servite.

-79-

Table 10.1: BARBADOS - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED USE OF RESOURCES (BASELINE SCENARI), 1916-98

(8DS9 million at 1906 pricns)

Prel. P R O J E C T E D

1986 1987 1989 1999 1990 1991 1992 1993 199 1995 1996 1997 1998

SDP at market prices 2677 2735 2777 2833 2890 2949 3009 3071 3134 3200 3264 3329 3396Terms of Trade Adjustment 0 -26 -33 -52 -2 41 87 139 190 212 237 265 2976DY at market prices 2677 2709 2744 2781 2R89 2990 3097 3210 3324 3412 3501 3594 3693

Resource Balance -5 0 12 30 41 45 0 41 46 56 61 62 57lports, SNFS 1479 1146 1107 1149 1193 1244 1312 1391 1463 1538 1617 1702 1791Exports (capacity to import) -1484 -1147 -1095 -1119 -1152 -1199 -1263 -1343 -1417 -1482 -1556 -1639 -1734

Total Resources 2672 2709 2756 2811 2929 3035 3146 3258 3370 3467 3562 3657 3750

Fixed investment 424 380 412 423 448 472 495 517 545 573 602 633 679Public 193 212 123 127 134 142 149 155 164 172 181 190 204Private 231 168 298 296 313 331 347 362 382 401 421 443 476

Consumption 2248 2329 2344 2389 2481 2563 2651 2741 2825 2894 296' 3024 3071

Gross Domestic Savings 429 380 400 393 407 427 446 469 500 518 541 570 622Net Factor Pay ments -30 -36 -29 -31 -31 -33 -34 -37 -40 -42 -45 -49 -53Transfers 24 27 25 25 27 25 24 22 22 21 18 18 17

Gross National Savings 423 372 397 387 402 420 436 454 481 496 513 539 586Gross National Product 2671 2726 2774 2927 2896 2942 2999 3056 3115 3178 3236 3299 3361Sross National Income 26)1 2701 2741 2776 2884 2983 3086 3195 3305 3390 3474 3563 3657

SOP Deflator 100.0 103.0 106.1 109.3 112.6 115.9 119.4 123.0 126.7 130.5 134.4 138.4 142.6GOP in current prices 2676.9 2817.1 2946.2 30W5.4 3253.0 3419.3 3593.2 3776.6 3970.5 4175.1 4316.1 4608.0 4842.0

Growth Rates

GDP 2.2 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0Total Resources 1.4 1.7 2.0 4.2 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6Investment -10.3 8.3 2.7 5.9 5.5 4.9 4.3 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.1 7.4Consumption 3.6 0.7 1.9 3.9 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.5Agriculture -13.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3Manutacturing -1.3 1.3 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2Government 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Services 4.9 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6

Percentages

Investment/6DY 15.8 14.0 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.46DS/6DY 16.0 14.0 14.6 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.9 16.8GNS/6DY 15.8 13.7 14.5 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.5 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.9Consueption/6DY 84.0 86.0 85.4 85.9 85.9 85.7 85.6 85.4 85.0 94.9 84.6 94.1 83.2PS Current Revenue 35.6 36.0 36.0 36.9 36.1 35.7 35.5 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3PS Current Expenditure 33.6 35.4 34.0 33.9 32.6 31.4 30.7 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3Public Savings 2.1 0.5 2.0 2.9 3.5 4.3 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0PS Capital Expenditure 7.2 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.4 9.4 8.3 0.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0PS Overall Balance -4.9 -7.4 -6.1 -5.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.3 -3.1 -3.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9

Sources: Barbados Statistical Service; and mission estiutCs.

-80-

Table 10.2t BARBADOS - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED NELHANDISE TRADE (BASELINE SCENARIO), 1986-98

(BDSS sillion at 1986 prices)

Prel. P R O J E C T E D

1986 1987 1989 1999 1990 1991 1992 1993 194' 1995 1996 1997 1999

Nerchandise Exports (Grofwth rates)

Sugar 6.5 -12.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Electrical Components -79.5 -7.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Other -30.5 -0.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Nerchandise Exports -52.0 -6.3 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6Tourism 1.9 1.6 5.1 -3.9 -1.0 1.3 2.9 2.3 4.9 5.5 6.1 6.6Other NFS -20.2 -15.1 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0Total Exports -21.0 -3.0 3.9 -1.4 0.3 1.5 2.4 2.0 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.6

Export Price Index (1986 100)

Sugar 100.0 110.2 119.0 126.9 128.7 131.8 130.6 129.5 129.0 129.4 130.8 132.3 133.7Electrical Components 100.0 105.0 112.9 121.9 131.7 142.2 153.6 165.9 179.1 193.4 208.9 225.6 243.7Other 100.0 110.6 119.7 124.3 121.5 118.9 116.2 113.7 111.2 112.1 113.0 113.9 114.8lerchandise Exports 100.0 109.3 117.5 124.4 125.4 126.8 127.5 128.4 129.3 133.0 136.9 141.1 145.4Non-factor Services 100.0 110.6 119.7 124.3 121.5 119.8 116.2 113.7 111.2 112.1 113.0 113.9 114.9o.w. Tourism 100.0 103.5 106.6 107.4 112.7 116.6 121.2 125.8 129.6 131.9 134.2 136.5 138.8

Total Exports 100.0 106.3 111.2 114.0 117.1 119.2 121.5 123.9 125.8 128.2 130.6 133.1 135.7

Nerchandise lports (In millions of 19680dS)

Consumer Goads 185.9 191.3 195.9 189.5 195.2 203.0 217.2 234.6 249.7 261.1 274.2 287.9 302.3Fuel 12.8 13.2 25.9 26.4 26.9 27.6 29.3 28.9 29.5 30.0 30.6 31.3 31.9Other Intermediate Goods 197.9 117.5 107.9 114.9 124.1 134.0 144.7 156.3 168.8 182.3 196.9 212.6 229.6Capital Goods i16.8 75.5 62.9 64.0 65.3 66.6 68.0 69.3 70.7 72.1 73.6 75.0 76.5Other 92.3 63.4 63.1 67.7 69.6 69.4 69.9 70.6 71.0 73.3 75.6 76.1 80.6lerchandise lports 605.7 452.9 445.5 462.6 480.1 500.6 529.1 559.6 588.7 618.8 650.9 684.8 720.9Non-factor Services 133.7 120.3 107.9 112.1 116.3 121.3 128.0 135.6 142.6 150.0 157.7 165.9 174.7Total lports 739.4 573.2 553.4 574.6 596.5 621.9 656.1 695.3 731.3 768.8 908.6 850.9 995.6

lport 6rowth Rates

Nerchandise Imports -25.2 -1.6 3.9 3.8 4.3 5.5 6.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3Non-factor Services -10.1 -10.2 3.8 3.8 4.3 5.5 6.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3Total Imports -22.5 -3.5 3.8 3.8 4.3 5.5 6.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3

Terms of Trade Indetes

Export Price Index 100.0 109.3 117.5 124.4 125.4 126.8 127.5 1Z.4 129.3 133.0 136.9 141.1 145.4Import Price Index 100.0 108.2 113.5 119.0 116.2 114.2 112.3 110.4 108.4 109.3 110.2 111.1 111.9Terms of Trade Index 100.0 101.0 103.6 105.4 107.9 111.0 113.6 116.3 119.3 121.7 124.3 127.0 129.9

Source- i et e - _ - -- - -_ - - -- -_ - -._ _ _ _

Source: Mission estimates.

-81-

Table 10.3: BARBADOS - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (BASELINE SCENARIO), 1986-98

(US$ Billion)

Prel. P R O J E C T E D

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999

Domestic Exports, 6NFS 742 623 627 667 676 690 714 745 772 814 861 915 975…-…------------------- … _ _ _._ _

goods 246 129 130 141 147 152 156 160 164 171 179 188 197NFS 496 494 497 526 529 538 558 585 608 643 682 727 778(of which: travel) 328 346 362 383 387 396 417 445 469 501 538 580 629

Retained Isports, SNFS 739 623 634 685 699 716 742 772 797 845 895 949 1007

Goods 606 490 506 546 558 572 593 618 638 677 717 761 807NFS 134 133 128 139 141 144 149 154 159 168 178 189 200

Resource Gap 3 0 -7 -19 -24 -26 -28 -27 -25 -31 -34 -35 -32_………… _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ --

Net Factor Services -30 -39 -33 -38 -39 -41 -43 -47 -51 -55 -60 -67 -74Interest .- 31 -41 -35 -40 -41 -43 -45 -49 -53 -57 -62 -69 -76Other 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Current Transfers (net) 24 30 30 31 33 30 28 25 24 23 20 20 20

Current Account Balance -3 -9 -1O -25 -31 -37 -43 -49 -52 -63 -74 -82 -87…-- - - --- … _ _ _ _ _ __ _._ _ -

Direct Foreign Investment 5 5 5 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Net Public Capital 91 35 53 30 36 37 43 48 52 63 74 82 87Project-related 115 68 26 31 35 39 25 22 19 11 10 10 10(of which uncommitted) 0 3 7 19 25 20 19 17 10 10 10 1lOther 10 68 45 97 130 89 90 77 86 103 113 121hmortization 24 43 42 46 96 130 70 64 44 34 39 41 45

Errors & omissions -79 - - - - - - - - - - - -

Change in Reserves -13 -16 -33 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15increase)

hemo iteas:

Debt service ratiL '1) 9.6 17.8 15.' 16.3 25.8 31.7 20.1 19.6 15.3 13.5 14.0 14.3 14.6(as percent of Exports aReserve level as nueber ofmonths of imports 2.3 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

a! Goods olus touriss only.

Sources: Central Bank of Barbados; and mission estimates.

-8Z-

Table 10.4: BARBADOS - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED USE OF RESOURCES (HIGHER GROWTH SCENARIO), 1986-98

(DDS$ million at 1986 prices)

Prel. P R O J E C T E D

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

GDP at market prices 2677 2735 2809 2907 3009 3114 3223 3335 3453 3574 3698 3827 3961Terms of Trade Adjustment 0 -95 -117 -125 -90 -69 -48 -26 -3 22 -4 -34 -696DY at market prices 2677 2640 2692 2792 2918 3045 317F 3309 3451 3595 3694 3793 3892

Resource Balance -5 0 12 18 -10 -19 -14 -21 -15 -22 -5 6 9Imports, GNFS 1479 1146 1107 1151 11°8 ',aO 1272 1317 1362 1409 1469 1532 1599Exports (capa:ity to i4port) -1484 -1147 -1095 -1134 -1198 -1248 -1286 -1338 -1377 -1431 -1474 -1526 -1589

Total Resources 2672 2640 2703 2800 2908 3026 3161 3288 3435 3575 3689 3796 3902

Fixed investment 424 380 409 440 490 518 530 569 607 644 687 747 806Public 193 212 205 229 260 279 292 307 322 335 350 359 379Private 231 168 205 211 230 238 239 262 285 309 337 369 427

Consumption 2248 2260 2294 2360 2418 2508 2631 2719 2828 2930 3002 3051 3096

Gross Domestic Savings 429 380 398 422 501 536 544 590 623 666 692 741 796Net Factor Payments -30 -36 -28 -32 -33 -33 -33 -36 -38 -37 -36 -35 -34Transfers 24 27 25 23 24 24 23 23 23 23 21 20 19

Gross National Savings 423 371 394 413 491 527 535 578 608 651 677 726 781Gross National Product 2671 2726 2805 2898 2999 3105 3214 3323 3439 3559 3683 3612 3946Gross National Income 2671 2631 2688 2773 2909 3035 3166 3296 3436 3581 3679 3779 3877

SDP DeflatGr 100.0 103.0 106.1 109.3 112.6 115.9 119.4 123.0 126.7 130.5 134.4 138.4 142.6GDP in current prices 2676.9 2735.1 2808.8 2907.1 3008.7 3114.0 3223.0 3335.1 3453.1 3573.6 3698.0 3826.7 3961.0

1 rodth Rates

GDP 2.2 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5Total Resources -1.2 2.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.0 3.2 3.0 2.7Investment -10.4 7.7 7.4 11.5 5.6 2.4 7.3 6.7 6.0 6.7 8.8 7.8Consumption 0.5 1.5 2.9 2.4 3.8 4.9 3.3 4.0 3.6 2.5 1.7 1.5Agriculture -13.6 2.0 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7hanufacturing -1.3 3.2 8.2 8.5 8.8 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 9.4 9.1Government 2.0 i.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Services 4.9 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7

Percentages

Investmert/ODY 15.6 14.4 15.2 15.8 16.8 17.0 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.7 20.76DS/6DY 16.0 14.4 14.8 15.? 17.2 17.6 17.1 17.8 18.0 18.5 18.7 19.5 20.5GNSIODY 15.6 14.1 14.6 16.8 17.3 16.9 17.5 17.o 18.1 18.3 19.2 20.1Consumption/BoY 84.0 85.6 85.2 84.8 82.8 82.4 82.9 92.2 82.0 81.5 81.3 EQ.5 79.5PS Current Revenue 35.6 36.0 37.0 37.0 36.8 36.7 36.7 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.6 36.6PS Current Expenditure 33.6 35.4 35.0 33.8 32.5 31.' 30.8 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4Public Savings 2.1 0.5 2.0 3.2 4.3 5.2 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2PS Capital Expenditure 7.2 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.0PS 8verall Balance -4.M -7.4 -6.3 -5.1 -4.1 -3.2 -2.6 2.4 -2.5 -2.5 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7

Sources: Barbados Statistical Service; and sission Pstimates.

-83-

Table 10.5: BARBADOS - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED MERCHANDISE TRADE (HIGHER GROWTH SCENARIO), 1906-98

(BOSS million at 1906 prices)

Prel. PROJECTE'1

1986 197 1969 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Merchandise Exports (Growth rates)

Sugar 6.5 -12.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0Electrical Cosponents -79.5 -7.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0Other -30.5 -0.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0Merchandise Exports -52.0 -6.3 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5Tourism 12.4 3.5 4.8 2.2 2.1 0.7 2.3 0.7 2.3 6.7 7.7 8.6Other NFS -20.2 -15.1 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0Total Exports -16.3 -2.4 3.8 2.4 2.2 1.2 2.2 1.2 2.1 4.9 5.6 6.3

Export Price Index (1986 - 100)

Sugar 100.0 110.2 119.0 126.6 128.7 135.0 137.1 139.3 141.6 143.9 152.9 162.34 172.28Electrical Components 100.0 105.0 112.9 121.9 131.7 142.2 153.6 165.9 179.1 193.4 208.9 225.64 243.69Other 100.0 110.6 118.7 124.3 121.5 122.5 123.5 124.5 125.5 126.5 135.0 145.87 156.66Merchandise Exports 100.0 109.3 117.5 124.4 125.3 129.5 132.8 136.3 139.9 143.6 153.9 164.9 176.6Non-factor Services 100.0 101.8 99.7 96.5 95.0 92.8 90.5 98.4 86.3 84.2 81.0 78.0 75.2o.w. Tourisn 100.0 93.6 94.9 97.6 100.6 103.6 106.7 109.9 113.2 116.6 120.1 123.7 127.4

Total Exports 100.0 100.4 103.4 107.4 108.9 111.9 114.7 117.5 120.5 123.5 129.1 134.9 140.6

Merchandise Imports (In sillions of 1960d$)

Consumer Goods 185.9 181.3 185.9 191.4 197.1 203.0 209.1 215.4 221.9 228.5 235.4 242.4 249.7Fuel 12.9 15.2 25.9 26.9 27.7 29.7 29.7 30.8 31.9 33.0 34.1 35.3 36.5Other Intermediate Goods 197.9 117.5 107.9 112.2 116.7 121.3 126.2 131.2 136.5 141.9 147.6 153.5 159.7Capital Goods 116.6 75.5 62.8 65.0 67.2 69.6 72.0 74.5 77.2 79.9 92.7 95.5 68.5Other ?2.3 63.4 63.1 68.1 69.3 72.2 75.0 79.0 80.8 93.7 91.4 99.8 109.0Merchandise leports 605.7 452.9 445.5 463.4 478.1 494.9 512.1 529.9 548.1 567.0 591.1 616.6 643.4Non-factor Services 133.7 120.3 107.9 112.3 115.9 119.9 124.1 128.4 132.8 137.4 143.2 149.4 155.9Total Imports 739.4 573.2 553.4 575.7 594.0 614.8 636.2 656.3 691.0 704.4 734.4 766.0 799.3

Import Groith Rates

Merchandise Imports -25.2 -1.6 4.0 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 4.3 4.3 4.4Non-factor Services -10.1 -10.2 4.0 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 4.3 4.3 4.4Total Imports -22.5 -3.5 4.0 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 4.3 4.3 4.4

Terms of Trade Irdeces

Export Price Index 100.0 109.3 117.5 124.4 125.3 129.5 132.8 136.3 139.9 143.6 153.9 164.9 176.6Import Price Indey 100.0 109.2 113.5 118.0 116.1 116.9 117.8 119.7 119.6 120.5 128.0 135.9 144.3Teres of Trade Index 100.0 101.0 103.6 105.4 107.9 110.7 112.7 114.8 117.0 119.2 120.2 121.3 122.4

Source: Mission estimates.

-84-

Table 10.6: BARBADOS - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED BALANCE OF PAYNENTS (HIGHER GROWTH SCENARIO), 1986-98

(USI million)

Prel. P R O J E C T E D

1996 1987 1989 1'89 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999

Doastic Exports, GNFS 742 623 627 676 702 737 765 901 831 971 954 1052 1166

Goods 246 129 130 142 148 158 167 176 195 194 213 234 257NFS 496 494 497 533 554 579 598 626 647 676 741 t18 909(of which: travel) 328 346 362 391 411 432 448 472 490 517 568 630 705

Retined imports, GNFS 739 623 634 686 696 726 757 789 822 857 951 1056 1173

6oods 606 490 506 547 555 579 603 629 656 683 757 838 928NFS 134 133 129 140 141 147 153 160 167 174 195 218 244

Rwsource Gap 3 0 -7 -11 6 11 a 13 9 14 3 -4 -7

Net Factor Services -30 -39 -32 _-n -39 -39 -38 -42 -45 -45 -46 -47 -49Irterest -31 -41 -34 -39 -41 -41 -40 -40 -42 -42 -42 -43 -45Other 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4

Current Transfers (net) 24 30 30 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 30

Current Account Balance -3 -9 -9 -20 -4 1 -1 -1 -7 -3 -14 -22 -26

Direct Foreign Investment 5 5 5 7 8 10 12 13 15 16 16 17 18

Net Public Capital 91 27 52 28 11 4 4 3 7 2 13 20 23Project-related 115 68 26 31 35 38 25 22 19 10 10 10 10(of which uncomitted) 0 3 7 19 25 20 19 17 10 10 10 10Other 2 69 41 71 4 47 42 31 24 35 39 44Asortization 24 43 42 44 95 129 69 62 43 33 32 29 31

Errors & omissions -79 -7 -15 - - - - - - - - - -

Change in Reserves -13 -16 -33 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -15 -151- = increase)

feso items:

Debt service ratio (1) 9.6 17.8 15.4 15.7 24.2 29.7 17.6 15.0 12.6 10.6 9.5 9.4 7.9(as percent of Exports) a/

Reserve level as nueber ofmonths of imports 2.3 3.0 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

a/ Goods plus tourism only.

Sources: Central Dank of Barbados; and mission estimates.

-85-

Table 11.1: Barbados - Exchange Rates

Nominal RealEffective Effective

BDS$ Per Unit of Exchange ExchangeSDR £ ECU Rate 1/ Rate 1/

End of period

1975 2.347 4.047 ...1976 2.326 3.401 105.0 101.71977 2.445 3.817 103.0 100.51978 2.620 4.065 102.0 101.41979 2.649 4.444 2.882 100.8 102.01980 2.565 4.762 2.618 100.9 102.31981 2.341 3.817 2.169 108.3 111.41982 2.219 3.226 1.934 116.2 119.91983 2.106 2.899 1.656 124.2 127.01984 1.972 2.313 1.410 135.3 136.61985 2.209 2.889 1.776 130.5 127.51986 2.460 2.949 2.140 128.4 120.8Sept. 1987 2.574 3.259 2.259 124.1 118.1

Average for period

1975 2.451 4.484 ... ...1976 2.315 3.597 102.9 101.91977 2.336 3.497 104.6 102.21978 2.506 3.846 102.4 101.01979 2.584 4.237 2.882 101.1 101.21980 2.604 4.651 2.717 100.0 100.'1981 2.358 4.049 2.198 106.5 109.u1982 2.208 3.497 1.927 113.5 117.91983 2.137 3.030 1.748 110.0 123.71984 2.049 2.672 1.671 129.0 130.51985 2.031 2.593 1.554 134.5 133.21986 2.390 2.934 1.962 129.0 124.31987 Jan.-Sept. 2.555 3.201 2.280 124.7 118.0

11 1980=100. Increase represents appreciation.

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and Fund Staff Estimates.

MAP SECTION

North Point p ATlANTIC.'., sOCEAN

t ~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 400

CRABHILL0 . C 0 400

* '.NE4 DOMINICAN MILES

\. P)~~~~~~ CORNER20 4fp HAIul .. PUERTO RICO 2'

S T. L UCY- JAMAICA IL4/V76s

Caribbeon Seao BARBADOS

10'

CtINKElTS ) < ( \x Y - ~~~~~~~~~~PANAMA o

SOUTH AMERiCA

-- k~~~~~~~~~~p

AINET AIE__i

BATHSHEBA S Rate Pin

AGRICULTURAL~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~H CANRANELA

HOLETOW ESTWT

BARBADO Sond Po pol

A Arns ooble lan stabl fr xmtehncl equoltiva -- Itetionl 0 Sgarfac ories

Lyi aretd gartdeningd oit iie iriato Mao road

yields~ (ntdfnd I I 3 I 5L~~~~ ~~ MILES

DEC8vlI5ffi 1986