report of the facts & figures committee tore forsmo chairman

Report of the Facts & Figures Committee

Tore ForsmoChairman

Committee Members Paul BUYL (Belgium) Cédric CHARPENTIER (France) Jim CRAIG (USA) Andrea CUPIDO (Italy) Tore FORSMO (Norway) (Chairman) Pamela FROOD (UK/IUA) Patrizia KERN (Switzerland) Jens SCHILDKNECHT (Germany) Astrid SELTMANN (Norway) (Secretary) Simon STONEHOUSE (UK/Lloyd’s)

Global Shipping MarketGlobal Shipping Market Trends TrendsFacts & Figures CommitteeFacts & Figures Committee

Tore ForsmoManaging Director

The Central Union of Marine Underwriters, Oslo, Norway

Thanks also to F&F Committee Members Cédric Charpentier and Simon Stonehouse

World Merchant Fleet by type of ship of 300gt and over

As at January 1st 2007 – number of ships in share of the World Reported Fleet, growth rate 2002-2007 (%) and average age

Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures and Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.

Special Ships 3.1%(+17.7%)

Ore/Bulk/Oil 0.2% (-46.2%)

Ro-Ro cargo 3.0% (+12.5%)

Reefer ships 2.6% (-12.2%)

Chemical tankers 3.2% (+7.3%)

Liquefied gas 2.9% (+11.8%)

Bulk carriers 15.8% (+14.8%)

Passengers 9.6% (+7.9%)

Container ships 9.1% (+42.4%)

Oil Tankers 19.1% (+12.1%)

General cargo 31.4% (-6.3%)

23.3

17.1

15.8

22.8 10.8

16.3 18.7

19.2

19

.7

22.1

WORLD REPORTED FLEET Total number : 42,872 shipsincreased by + 9.6 % on the

period Average age : 19.1 years

World Merchant Reported Fleet by type of ships 300gt and over

As at January 1st, 2007 – Deadweight and growth rate 2001-2007


374,454

10,008 26,857 6,062

74,133

6,585 6,952 12,652

1,009,523

128,174

6,078

357,568

-59.6%

29.6%29.8%

-4.9%-9.8%

-0.9%

13.7%

86.5%

35.9%

45.8%

15.2%

24.7%

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

Oil Tankers Chemical tankers Liquefied gas Bulk carriers Ore/Bulk/Oil Container ships Passengers General cargo Reefer ships Ro-Ro cargo Special Ships Total-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1,000dwt in 2007 Growth rate 2001/ 2007

World Merchant Fleet of ships of 300gt and over

Evolution of the growth rates (GT, DWT, and Number of ships) between 1995 and 2007


39,008 ships (+ 7.6%)

42,872 ships (+ 18.3%)

685,738 mGT

(+ 56.4%)

520,913 mGT

(+ 18.8%)778,758 mDWT

(+ 14.2%)

1,009,524 mDWT

(+ 48.1%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

World Merchant Fleet by main types of ship of 300gt and overEvolution of the number of ships in shares (%) of the world fleet 97–07, Growth rate in 2006 as at 1st January 2007


- 0.1% (- 0.2 %)

+ 0.8% (- 1.2 %)

+ 0.1% (+ 1.9 %)

+ 5.9% (+ 6.0 %)

- 2.3% (- 1.8 %)

- 0.3% (- 0.9 %)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -

Oil Tankers Liquefied gas Bulk carriers Container ships Passengers General cargo

Share of World Fleet Growth rate in 2006 (in 2005)

World Merchant Reported Fleet by National and Foreign Flag

As at January 1st, 2007 – thousand DWT and number of ships


13,039 12,70712,46212,64612,91612,905

17,058 15,668

14,48013,840

13,30513,342

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

1,000dwt

Foreign Flag (dwt)

National Flag (dwt)

Ships > 1,000 GT

Total Units in the :

Reported Fleet

Not Reported Fleet

Total World Fleet

26,247

3,686

26,221

4,174

26,486

4,117

26,942

3,909

28,375

3,567

30,097

3,228

29,933 30,395 30,603 30,851 31,942 33,325


World Merchant Fleet – Top 10 Countries

DWT-rank 2007 (2006) Country of Management

Total fleet - 1,000DWT

2007

% share on the Total

World Fleet Reported in

2007

Growth rate 2006/2007

Growth rate 1997/2007

1 (1) GREECE 170,260 17.8% 6.8% 48.1%2 (2) JAPAN 146,956 15.4% 12.2% 68.6%3 (3) GERMANY 85,330 8.9% 21.4% 396.8%4 (4) CHINA, PR of 69,070 7.2% 7.6% 96.3%5 (7) NORWAY 47,970 5.0% 10.8% 1.2%6 (5) USA 45,397 4.8% -3.2% -5.1%7 (6) HONG-KONG 45,155 4.7% 4.1% 38.0%8 (8) KOREA, Rep of 31,712 3.3% 7.8% 39.3%9 (11) UK 24,973 2.6% 17.1% 24.0%10 (10) SINGAPORE 24,936 2.6% 12.0% 73.7%

691,759 72.4% 9.0% 57.3%Others countries 263,659 27.6% 4.9% 12.9%

955,418 7.9% 41.9%

1,001,118

WORLD MERCHANT FLEET - THE TOP TEN COUNTRIES OF MANAGEMENT As at January 1st, 2007 – Rank in 2007 (in 2006) and thousand of DWT (Ships of 1,000gt and over )

3,228 ships for 45.7 million dwt not reported

Total Top Ten Countries of Management

Total World Merchant Fleet by Country of Management

Total World Merchant Fleet (including fleets for which the Country of Management is unknown)

World Merchant Fleet – Top 10 Countries by National (NF) and Foreign Flags (FF)As at January 1st, 2007


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

GREECEJAPAN

GERMANY

CHINA, PR of

NORWAY USA

HONG-KONG

KOREA, Rep of UK

SINGAPORE

1,000 DWT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Years

1,000 DWT NF 1,000 DWT FF Average Age NF Average Age FF

Top Ten Countries Fleet Average Age : 15.5 years

Ships > 1,000 GT

Average Age FF : 13.2 years

Average Age NF : 17.2 years

Orderbook Evolution by type of ship

in million DWT


112.3 115.6

176.7

220.0

241.8

Tankers 146.3

Bulk Carriers 97.7

LNG/LPG 17.2

Container 58.1

Others 5.5

General cargo 9.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Tankers >=1,000dwt Bulk Carriers >=10,000dwt LNG/LPG Carriers Container Vessels >=5,000dwt Others (of which Passenger Vessels >=1,000grt) General cargo (>= 300gt)

334.0

World Shipbuilding – Shares of Deliveries

Source: Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels.

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

% C

GT

Del

iver

ies

Japan

Europe

Korea

China

Others

Vessels on order by Country of Build@ August 2007 (Numbers)


China30%

Europe/Scandinavia15%

Far East9%

FSU1%

Japan17%

Other3%

South Korea23%

USA / Americas2%

Total No 8,414 (2006- 5,653)


Vessels on order by Country of Build@ August 2007 (DWT)

China31 %

FSU0 %

Japan23 %

Other1 % Far East

4 %

USA/Americas1%

Europe/Scandinavia

4 %

South Korea36 %

Total 436.8 million DWT (2006 – 275.6m)

Top Contracting Countries by Number of Vessels on Order (Aug 07)


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Top Contracting Countries by DWT of Vessels on Order (Aug 07)


0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

GDP 2006 and GDP Growth Rate 02-06

+ 0.6%+ 0.9%

+ 1.5%+ 1.8%

+ 2.5%+ 2.7%+ 2.9%+ 3.3%

+ 6.1%

+ 6.8%

+ 9.5%

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

China (1) India (1) RussianFederation (1)

Spain USA Canada UK Japan France Germany Italy-5 %

0 %

5 %

10 %GDP 2006 (billion USD)

Actual % GDP Growth (2002 - 2006)

(1) % GDP growth for 2001-2005

World Seaborne Trade Volume

Development 1996-2006 (in million tonnes) - Growth rate in 2006


estimates

+ 2 %

+ 7 %

+ 6 %

+ 5 %

900

1,400

1,900

2,400

2,900

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (*)

Major trades

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Total World Trade

Crude oil and oil products

The 4 main Dry Bulk Cargoes (Iron Ore, Coal, Grain, Bauxite/Alumina)

Other Cargoes

Total World Trade

(*)

World Trade Values Development 1996-2006 (in million USD) – Growth rate in 2006


+ 27.1 %

+ 14.5 %

+ 15.7 %

+ 16.9 %

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (*)

Oil & Dry Bulk

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Total World Trade & Other cargoes

Crude oil and oil products

The 4 main Dry Bulk Cargoes (Iron Ore, Coal, Grain, Bauxite/Alumina)

Other Cargoes

Total World Trade

(*)

World Market Price Indices for Selected Commodities Annual Average (1993-2006) – Average in 2007 as at end of May (*)


301.6

202.1 213.1

152.2

278.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007(*)

Iron ore, scrap metals Coal

Crude oil Agricultural raw material

Non ferrous metal

Index 2000 = 100

FREIGHT MARKET (indices) – YEARS 1995 to 2007 (January to May 2007)

Source: Indicators issued from various sources such as ISL Bremen for World fleet and trading figures, Clarkson Research Studies for shipbuilding and scrapped vessels and Maritime Research Inc., New Jersey for Freight Market indices.

758.6

504.4

529.8

448.4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Time Charter Index (1 to 2 months)General Freight IndexGrain Freight Index Miscellaneous Freight Index

Index 1972 = 100

report of the facts & figures committee tore forsmo chairman

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