report of the tropical moored buoy implementation panel to the 20 th session of the data buoy...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Report of the Tropical Moored Buoy Implementation Panel to the 20 th Session of the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel October 18-22, 2004 Chennai, India Nuku](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062320/56649f3e5503460f94c5f185/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Report of the Tropical Moored Buoy Implementation Panel
to the
20th Session of the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel
October 18-22, 2004Chennai, India
Nuku Hiva, Marquesas Islands
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Present Tropical Moored Arrays
• Primary Measurements: Wind, AirT, RH, SST, 10 Water Temperatures 20 m to 500 m
• Enhanced Measurements: Rain, SWR, LWR, BP, Salinity, Currents
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Current ConditionsSST is warmer than normal in western and central PacificTrade Winds are weaker than normal in western Pacific
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Current Conditions
Thermocline slopes down to west because of trade wind forcing.
East-west slope is weaker in the western and central Pacific because trades are weaker.
Warm subsurface temperature anomalies across much of the basin (elevated heat content--a predictor of El Niño).
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TWO-YEAR EVOLUTION
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Evolution: April-Present
QuickTime
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EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEPOctober 7, 2004
Synopsis: Warm-episode conditions are expected to continue into early 2005.• Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies greater than +0.5°C persisted in the central and western equatorial Pacific, and expanded eastward into the eastern equatorial Pacific during September 2004
• …periods of weaker-than-average easterlies that initiated eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves, which contributed to a deeper-than-average oceanic thermocline and an increase in surface and subsurface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
• The NOAA operational definition for El Niño [a three-month running mean of the Niño 3.4 index, greater than or equal to +0.5°C] was satisfied for the period June-August 2004, with a value of +0.7°C.
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Niño3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Index
Average=0.7°C
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CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP ENSO DISCUSSION (Continued)
• Based on the recent evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and on a majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, it seems most likely that SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region will remain positive, at or above +0.5°C, through early 2005.
•Expected global impacts include drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia (through early 2005), northern and northeastern Australia (November 2004-February 2005), and southeastern Africa (November 2004-March 2005).
Niño3.4 Region
El Niño Advisory
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TAO/TRITON STATUS
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PIRATA STATUS
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2005 TAO PLANS
• Measure surface salinity from all ATLAS moorings• Upgrade 5 moorings for full flux measurements• NDBC officially takes management responsibility
for TAOTransition through 2007
2005 focus on data delivery
PMEL staff provides operational support during transition
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2005 PIRATA PLANS
• Upgrade 3 moorings for full flux measurements• No dedicated French cruise for 2005!• PIRATA-10 meeting, December 2004
Assess impact on understanding and prediction of climate variability
Propose expansions
Identify resources
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Indian Ocean Plans
There is an increasingly organized international effort to develop an Indian Ocean component to the Global Ocean Observing system to support climate studies: Compelling unanswered scientific questions;
Potential societal benefits (improved prediction of the monsoon rainfalls and teleconnections);
One of the most poorly sampled regions of the world ocean in terms of in situ observations;
Growing investments from India (2 new ships & major buoy program initiative planned) and Japan (new Asian Monsoon Observing Initiative @ $300M over 10 yrs);
Summit on Earth Observations (July 2003).
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Draft Strategy for Indian Ocean Moored Buoy Array
First Session of CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel23-27 February 2004
Pune, India
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RV Sagar Kanya CruiseOctober-November 2004
3 ATLAS & 1 ADCP Mooring
1.5°S, 0°, 1.5°N along 80.5°E
ATLAS enhanced with current meters, salinity, rainfall, SW; in addtion, LW & atmospheric pressure on central mooring
Expect to continue and expand with Indian (NIO, NIOT, DOD/NCAOR, etc) and other institutions.
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RV Sagar Kanya CruiseOctober-November 2004
• 41 Day Cruise• 5 days for ATLAS• In collaboration with
NIO (Dr. V.S.N. Murty) and NCAOR (Dr. M. Sudhakar)
4 0 4 5 5 0 5 5 6 0 6 5 7 0 7 5 8 0 8 5 9 0 9 5 1 0 0
Longitude (°E )
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Latit
ude
(°N
)
IN D IA
TAO m oorings
OOS m ooringsADCP
Proposed locations of the PMEL TAO and ADCP moorings (red dots)along with the existing Indian OOS mooring locations (blue open circles).Also proposed are the hydrographic stations between 2°N and 2°Sat 0.5° interval along 80.5°E.