Report on Aid and Stability in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)

Prepared for the U.S. State Department Office of Financial AssistancePrepared by Caitlin Fogarty, International Development Solutions

Nigeria and ECOWAS Stability

• U.S. assistance to Nigeria in 2009: $519,270,000, in part due to the country’s role as a regional stabilizer within it’s conflict-ridden neighborhood

• Fearon & Laitin’s civil war predictor model reveals that it is Nigeria, rather than its dependent neighbors, that is the most likely to break out into civil war

• In light of this, the U.S. government should not focus foreign assistance in the region so heavily on Nigeria, but should increase funding to other ECOWAS states

Civil War Predictor Variables: Economic Community of West African States

ECOWAS Country 2009 GNI per capita (PPP) Population (in millions) Oil Exports (in BBL/day)

Benin $1,510 9.8 8,770

Burkina Faso $1,170 16.2 0

Cape Verde $3,530 0.5 0

Cote d’Ivoire $1,640 22.0 115,700

Ghana $1,480 24.0 4,843

Guinea $940 10.8 0

Guinea Bissau $1,060 1.6 0

The Gambia $1,330 1.8 42

Liberia $290 4.1 23

Mali $1,190 15.2 0

Mauritania $1,960 3.4 30,620

Niger $660 15.9 0

Nigeria $1,980 158.3 2,327,000

Senegal $1,790 12.5 5,653

Sierra Leone $790 5.8 502

Togo $850 6.8 1,547

Nigeria and Civil War

• Low per capita income: $1,980

• High population: 158.3 million people– most populous country in Africa; 8th in the world

• High oil exports: 2,327,000 bbl/day,– 95% of total exports; 7th largest exporter in the world

What would a Nigerian civil war mean for West Africa?

• Civil war in Nigeria, the regional giant, could lead to increased destabilization in the already volatile West African region

Policy Recommendations

•The U.S. government should continue to provide high levels of aid to Nigeria. Aid may serve to increase per capita income and thus slightly decrease the probability of civil war in the country•The United States should not continue to focus funding on Nigeria based on the belief that Nigeria will hold the region together• In order to soften the regional effects of a possible Nigerian civil war, the United States should increase funding to other members of ECOWAS, especially within the governance and conflict management programs, in order to decrease their dependence on Nigeria for stability

FY 2009 Estimate of U.S. Foreign Assistance to West Africa:Ranking of Countries from Most to Least Assistance

Nigeria $519,270,000Liberia $189,980,000

Cote d’Ivoire $101,280,000Ghana $90,395,000

Mali $77,080,000Senegal $70,912,000Benin $30,900,000

Burkina Faso $19,870,000Sierra Leone $19,750,000

Niger $16,123,000Guinea $13,461,000Mauritania $5,520,000

Cape Verde $600,000Guinea Bissau $200,000

Togo $130,000

The Gambia $120,000