report on analysis of the 2014 national emissions ... · pga 582-16-60851-01, amendment 2 task 2.1,...

PGA 582-16-60851-01, Amendment 2 Task 2.1, Deliverable 2.1.3

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Report on Analysis of the 2014 National Emissions Inventory for the CAPCOG Region

and Selected Updates

Prepared by the Capital Area Council of Governments

December 9, 2016

PREPARED UNDER A GRANT FROM THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY

The preparation of this report was financed through grants from the State of Texas through the Texas

Commission on Environmental Quality. The content, findings, opinions, and conclusions are the work of

the author(s) and do not necessarily represent findings, opinions, or conclusions of the TCEQ.

CAPCOG 2014 NEI Review and Updates

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Executive Summary This report provides an analysis of the initial public release of the 2014 National Emissions Inventory

(NEI) data for the 10-County Capital Area Council of Governments (CAPCOG) region. CAPCOG includes

Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Fayette, Hays, Lee, Llano, Travis, and Williamson Counties. This report

also includes documentation of proposed updates for version 2 of the 2014 NEI. For this project,

CAPCOG was primarily interested in the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX), but included data

summaries and updates for all criteria pollutants as well: carbon monoxide (CO), ammonia (NH3), lead

(Pb), particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns (PM2.5), particulate matter smaller than 10 microns

(PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and volatile organic compounds (VOC). The following table summarizes the

total criteria pollutant emissions by county.

Table ES-1-1. CAPCOG Region 2014 Emissions Inventory by County (tpy)

County CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

Bastrop 13,973 863 3,184 0.03 2,844 21,376 339 26,288

Blanco 5,252 392 597 0.01 611 4,742 13 18,368

Burnet 11,788 322 1,384 0.13 1,441 11,468 29 21,785

Caldwell 9,261 1,013 2,350 0.19 1,091 7,706 385 19,871

Fayette 16,115 916 10,036 0.54 1,709 9,322 970 24,296

Hays 22,811 735 5,880 0.01 2,971 23,365 1,422 20,663

Lee 6,322 660 1,752 0.02 1,039 7,537 110 18,283

Llano 6,833 385 745 0.06 538 3,993 10 25,395

Travis 85,989 1,476 16,964 0.18 5,789 39,690 619 37,333

Williamson 30,914 2,374 6,813 0.22 4,408 32,672 160 24,969

TOTAL 209,258 9,135 49,707 1.38 22,442 161,872 4,059 237,251

The following table summarizes the total criteria pollutant emissions by major source group: biogenic,

fires, point, area, on-road, and non-road sources.

Table ES-1-2. CAPCOG Region 2014 Emissions Inventory by Source Type (tpy)


Biogenic 30,854 0 3,276 0.00 0 0 0 189,923

Fires 8,311 138 194 0.00 777 917 87 1,983

Point 10,611 287 11,000 0.52 1,141 1,831 2,920 1,104

Area 14,034 8,122 4,128 0.01 19,056 156,902 789 30,356

On-Road 102,325 575 20,829 0.00 680 1,399 169 8,579

Non-Road 43,124 14 10,281 0.86 787 823 94 5,305

TOTAL 209,258 9,135 49,707 1.38 22,442 161,872 4,059 237,251

CAPCOG’s recommended updates to the 2014 NEI include updates to the vehicle inspection and

maintenance (I/M) program compliance factors for Travis and Williamson Counties, updates to gasoline

sulfur content for all CAPCOG counties and overlapping fuel regions modeled by the Texas

Transportation Institute, and area source commercial fuel combustion.


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Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 2

Contents.................................................................................................................................................. 3

1 Review of 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1 data ........................................................... 7

1.1 Emissions Inventory Categorization .......................................................................................... 7

1.2 Biogenic Emissions ................................................................................................................... 7

1.3 Fire Emissions .......................................................................................................................... 9

1.4 On-Road Emissions ................................................................................................................. 11

1.5 Non-Road Emissions ............................................................................................................... 14

1.6 Point Source Emissions ........................................................................................................... 17

1.7 Area Source Emissions............................................................................................................ 20

1.8 Identification of “Significant” Sources of Ozone Precursors .................................................... 26

1.9 Summary & Conclusions Regarding 2014 NEI.......................................................................... 33

2 Documentation of Updates to the 2014 NEI ................................................................................... 35

2.1 Updates to the I/M County Databases for the On-Road Emissions Inventory .......................... 35

2.2 Updates to the Fuel County Databases for the On-Road Emissions Inventory ......................... 36

2.2.1 Existing Fuel County Databases....................................................................................... 36

2.2.2 Updates to Fuel County Databases ................................................................................. 39

2.3 Updates to the Commercial Fuel Combustion Emissions Estimates for the Area Source

Emissions Inventory ........................................................................................................................... 41

2.3.1 Existing ........................................................................................................................... 41

2.3.2 Updates & Other Data Sources Reviewed ....................................................................... 44

2.4 Descriptions of Electronic Files Submitted for QA ................................................................... 63

Appendix A: ERG QA Memo on Updates to I/M and Fuel County Databases .......................................... 65

Appendix B: ERG QA Memo on Updates to Commercial Natural Gas Combustion Area Source Emissions

Inventory ............................................................................................................................................... 66

Appendix C: CAPCOG QA Report for Review of 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1 ................. 67

Appendix D: Electronic Files Submitted .................................................................................................. 68

Appendix E: Emission Pie Charts by Pollutant......................................................................................... 69

Appendix F: References for 2014 Emissions Inventory Analysis .............................................................. 73

EPA Files ............................................................................................................................................ 73

TCEQ Files .......................................................................................................................................... 73


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Table ES-1-1. CAPCOG Region 2014 Emissions Inventory by County (tpy) ................................................. 2

Table ES-1-2. CAPCOG Region 2014 Emissions Inventory by Source Type (tpy) ......................................... 2

Table 1-1. 2014 Biogenic Criteria Pollutant Emissions by County (tpy)...................................................... 8

Table 1-2. 2014 Biogenic Criteria Pollutant Emissions by SCC source type (tpy) ........................................ 8

Table 1-3. 2014 fire emissions by county (tpy) ......................................................................................... 9

Table 1-4. 2014 fire emissions by fire type (tpy) ..................................................................................... 10

Table 1-5. 2014 on-road source emissions totals by county (tpy) ........................................................... 11

Table 1-6. 2014 on-road source emissions totals by vehicle type (tpy) ................................................... 12

Table 1-7. 2014 on-road source emissions totals by vehicle fuel type (tpy) ............................................ 13

Table 1-8. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated on-road emissions and EPA-estimated on-road emissions (tpy)

.............................................................................................................................................................. 13

Table 1-9. 2014 non-road emissions by county (tpy) .............................................................................. 14

Table 1-10. 2014 non-road emissions by sector (tpy) ............................................................................. 15

Table 1-11. 2014 non-road emissions by fuel type (tpy) ......................................................................... 15

Table 1-12. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated non-road emissions and EPA-estimated non-road emissions

(tpy) ...................................................................................................................................................... 16

Table 1-13. 2014 point source emissions totals by county (tpy) ............................................................. 17

Table 1-14. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated point source emissions and EPA-estimated point source

emissions (tpy) ...................................................................................................................................... 18

Table 1-15. 2014 point source emissions totals by EPA Tier 1 category (tpy) .......................................... 19

Table 1-16. 2014 area source emissions totals by county (tpy) ............................................................... 20

Table 1-17. 2014 area source emissions totals by tier 1 (tpy) ................................................................. 20

Table 1-18. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated area source emissions and EPA-estimated area source

emissions (tpy) ...................................................................................................................................... 21

Table 1-19. 2014 area source fuel combustion emissions by -estimated on-road emissions and EPA-

estimated on-road emissions CAPCOG Tier 5 (tpy) ................................................................................. 22

Table 1-20. 2014 oil and gas area source emissions totals by equipment type (tpy) ............................... 23

Table 1-21. 2014 solvent utilization VOC emissions by category (tpy) .................................................... 24

Table 1-22. Analysis of Source Categories by Emissions Thresholds........................................................ 27

Table 1-23. Analysis of Point Sources by Emissions Thresholds .............................................................. 27

Table 1-24. Analysis of Area Sources by Emissions Thresholds ............................................................... 27

Table 1-25. Area source emissions categories meeting the NOX significance threshold .......................... 28

Table 1-26. Analysis of On-Road Emissions by Emissions Thresholds ...................................................... 28

Table 1-27. Analysis of Non-Road Emissions by Emissions Thresholds .................................................... 29

Table 1-28. Non-road equipment types meeting the NOX significance threshold .................................... 29

Table 1-29. Individual SCCs Meeting the NOX significance threshold ranked ........................................... 30

Table 1-30. Summary of Significant Sources of Ozone-Forming Emissions in the CAPCOG Region .......... 33

Table 1-31. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated anthropogenic emissions and EPA-estimated anthropogenic

emissions (tpy) ...................................................................................................................................... 34

Table 2-1. I/M Compliance Factor Updates for Travis and Williamson Counties ..................................... 35


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Table 2-2. Existing Summer 2014 Gasoline Fuel Formulation Inputs - Texas MOVES Fuel Regions .......... 37

Table 2-3. Existing Winter 2014 Gasoline Fuel Formulation Inputs - Texas MOVES Fuel Regions............. 37

Table 2-4. CAPCOG Counties & Corresponding Fuel Region.................................................................... 38

Table 2-5. 2014 Summer Fuel Study Sampling Locations in the CAPCOG Region..................................... 39

Table 2-6. Updated Summer 2014 Gasoline Fuel Formulation Inputs For Selected Regions .................... 39

Table 2-7. Comparison of Diesel Sulfur Averages in TTI Report & CAPCOG Calculations (ppm) ............... 41

Table 2-8. Existing County Allocations for Commercial Fuel Combustion in the ICI Tool v. 1.4 ................ 42

Table 2-9. Emissions Factors Used for Area Source Commercial and Institutional Fuel Combustion ....... 42

Table 2-10. Existing 2014 Area Source Commercial/Institutional Natural Gas Combustion Activity and

Emissions Estimates .............................................................................................................................. 43

Table 2-11. March 2014 Employment Totals for Texas and CAPCOG Region for NAICS Codes 42-92 ....... 46

Table 2-12. March 2014 Employment Totals for Texas and CAPCOG Region for NAICS Codes 42-92 (% of

adjusted state total) .............................................................................................................................. 47

Table 2-13. Estimated County-Level Fuel Consumption .......................................................................... 48

Table 2-14. Point Sources to Investigate for Possible Double-Counting with Area Sources ..................... 49

Table 2-15. Point Source Subtraction Summary ..................................................................................... 50

Table 2-16. Estimated County-Level Fuel Consumption .......................................................................... 51

Table 2-17. Comparison of RRC Gas Utility Data to 2014 NEI Activity ..................................................... 51

Table 2-18. Texas RRC Gas Data Compared to EIA Data – NG Consumed and # of Customers ................. 52

Table 2-19. U.S. Commercial Building Natural Gas, Employment, and Floor Space from CBECS (National)

.............................................................................................................................................................. 53


.............................................................................................................................................................. 54

Table 2-21. U.S. and West South Central Commercial Natural Gas Comparison...................................... 55

Table 2-22. West South Central Commercial Building Natural Gas and RSE from CBECS ......................... 55

Table 2-24. Summary of NOX Emissions Standards Under 30 TAC Chapter 117, Subchapter E, Division 3 58

Table 2-25. Boilers by County and Fuel Type, 2016 ................................................................................ 59

Table 2-26. Aggregate Boiler Heat Input by Age and Heat Input Category (MMBtu/hr) .......................... 60

Table 2-27. Aggregate Boiler Heat Input by Age and Heat Input Category (%) ........................................ 61

Table 2-28. 2014 Annual Area Source Commercial Combustion Activity and Emissions Estimates .......... 62

Table 2-29. 2014 OSD Area Source Commercial Combustion Activity and Emissions Estimates .............. 62

Table 2-30. Comparison of Updated Annual Commercial Fuel Combustion NOX to Existing Estimates .... 63

Table 2-31. Comparison of Updated Annual Commercial Fuel Combustion NOX to Existing Estimates .... 63

Figure 1-1. Comparison of Biogenic Emissions by Periodic Emissions Inventory Year ................................ 9

Figure 1-2. Comparison of 2014 Fire Emissions to 2011 Fire Emissions (tpy) .......................................... 11

Figure 1-3. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 On-Road NOX Emissions by County (tpy) .... 14

Figure 1-4. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 Non-Road NOX Emissions by County (tpy) .. 16

Figure 1-5. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 Non-Road NOX Emissions by Sector (tpy) ... 17

Figure 2-1. Average June 2014 Gasoline Sulfur Content by Fuel Region (ppm) with 95% Confidence

Interval .................................................................................................................................................. 40


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Figure 2-2. Comparison of County-Level Commercial Natural Gas Combustion Allocations .................... 48

Figure 2-3. Commercial Natural Gas Consumption in Texas by Month, 2013-2015 ................................. 56

Figure 2-4. Ozone Season Weekday and Weekend Day Allocations of Annual Emissions ........................ 57

Figure E-1. 2014 CAPCOG CO Emissions by Source Type (tpy) ................................................................ 69

Figure E-2. 2014 CAPCOG NH3 Emissions by Source Type (tpy) ............................................................... 69

Figure E-3. 2014 CAPCOG NOX Emissions by Source Type (tpy) ............................................................... 70

Figure E-4. 2014 CAPCOG Pb Emissions by Source Type (tpy) ................................................................. 70

Figure E-5. 2014 CAPCOG PM2.5 Emissions by Source Type (tpy) ............................................................. 71

Figure E-6. 2014 CAPCOG PM10 Emissions by Source Type (tpy) ............................................................. 71

Figure E-7. 2014 CAPCOG SO2 Emissions by Source Type (tpy) ............................................................... 72

Figure E-8. 2014 CAPCOG VOC Emissions by Source Type (tpy) .............................................................. 72


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1 Review of 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1 data This section contains CAPCOG’s review of the 2014 NEI v1 data for the 10 counties in the CAPCOG

region. CAPCOG categorized the emissions into six major source categories – biogenic emissions, fire

emissions, on-road emissions, non-road emissions, point source emissions, and area source emissions.

These categories do not correspond directly to the files available from EPA, but are designed to more

easily enable direct comparisons to data available from other inventory years or from TCEQ. Since one of

the major objectives of this project was to identify “major sources” of ozone-forming pollutants CAPCOG

focuses most of the analysis in this report on NOX emissions and, to a lesser extent, VOC emissions,

although all criteria pollutant emissions estimates are presented. CAPCOG defined a “major source” of

ozone-forming emissions as sources or categories that emitted either ≥250 tpy NOX or ≥10,000 tpy VOC.

1.1 Emissions Inventory Categorization CAPCOG categorizes emissions sources for this report as follows:

Biogenic Sources (obtained from EPA’s nonpoint emissions file)

Fire Emissions (obtained from EPA’s prescribed and wildfire emissions file)

Anthropogenic Sources

o Mobile Sources

On-Road Sources (obtained from EPA’s on-road emissions file)

Non-Road Sources (obtained from EPA’s non-road emissions file, as well as

portions of EPA’s nonpoint and facility by process emissions files)

o Stationary Sources

Point Sources (obtained from EPA’s facility by process emissions file)

Area Sources (obtained from EPA’s nonpoint emissions file and, for refueling

emissions only, EPA’s on-road emissions file).

Mobile sources are defined as sources that move at least one time a year. On-road sources are any

mobile sources that are registered to operate on public roads. Non-road sources are any mobile sources

that are not registered to operate on public roads.

Stationary sources are sources that do not move at least once a year. Point sources are any stationary

sources that are required to report its emissions to TCEQ, and are available at a facility- and unit-level.

Area sources are any stationary sources that do not report to TCEQ, and are available at the county-

level.

1.2 Biogenic Emissions CAPCOG obtained EPA’s 2014 biogenic emissions data from EPA’s detailed nonpoint data and

aggregated it by county and by emissions type.1 These data are shown in the tables below.

1 EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, non-point source emissions full detail data file. ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_nonpoint.zip. Accessed 9/26/2016.

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_nonpoint.zip


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Table 1-1. 2014 Biogenic Criteria Pollutant Emissions by County (tpy)


Bastrop 3,416.46 0.00 327.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,825.40

Blanco 2,780.64 0.00 141.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17,874.20

Burnet 3,840.39 0.00 278.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19,932.30

Caldwell 2,044.62 0.00 250.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14,539.60

Fayette 3,343.07 0.00 504.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20,324.10

Hays 2,706.96 0.00 176.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17,036.30

Lee 2,149.55 0.00 325.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15,738.00

Llano 3,636.69 0.00 238.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24,604.10

Travis 3,673.05 0.00 323.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18,206.40

Williamson 3,262.90 0.00 709.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17,842.40

TOTAL 30,854.33 0.00 3,275.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 189,922.80

Table 1-2. 2014 Biogenic Criteria Pollutant Emissions by SCC source type (tpy)

Description CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

Vegetation 30,854.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 189,922.80

Agriculture 0.00 0.00 3,275.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

TOTAL 30,854.33 0.00 3,275.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 189,922.80

Biogenic emissions constituted both a major source of VOC emissions and NOX emissions in the 2014

inventory. The following figure shows a comparison of EPA’s estimates of the 2014 biogenic emissions in

the CAPCOG region to EPA’s estimates for biogenic emissions in its 2011 NEI v2.2 Note that the VOC

emissions are divided by 10 in the figure below in order to enable to fit all three pollutants on the figure.

2 ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2011/2011neiv2_nonroad_byregions.zip. Accessed 11/5/2016.

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2011/2011neiv2_nonroad_byregions.zip


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Figure 1-1. Comparison of Biogenic Emissions by Periodic Emissions Inventory Year

1.3 Fire Emissions

Fire emissions are categorized by EPA as “Event” emissions because they correspond to specific fire-

related emissions events that can be individually modeled in space and time. This category includes four

SCCs:

2810001001: Smoldering Forest Fires

2810001002: Flaming Forest Fires

2811015001: Smoldering Prescribed Fires

2811015002: Flaming Prescribed Fires

CAPCOG obtained the 2014 emissions estimates from EPA’s 2014 NEI website and grouped the

emissions by county and by prescribed (SCCs 2811015001 and 2811015002) versus wildfire (SCCs

2810001001 and 2810001002) emissions, as shown in the tables below.3 Table 1-3. 2014 fire emissions by county (tpy)


Bastrop 2,066.40 34.14 40.04 0.00 187.11 220.79 19.15 490.83

Blanco 695.36 11.60 19.40 0.00 67.45 79.59 8.26 166.82

Burnet 946.21 15.78 25.65 0.00 91.22 107.64 11.01 226.80

Caldwell 1,188.47 19.68 25.13 0.00 109.21 128.86 11.66 282.89

3 EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, prescribed/wildfires county-level by SCC summary.

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_eventfire_countyscc.zip. Accessed 9/28/2016.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

CO NOX VOC/10

Emis

sio

ns

(tp

y)

2011

2014

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_eventfire_countyscc.zip


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Fayette 1,024.49 17.01 23.87 0.00 95.80 113.05 10.72 244.47

Hays 619.49 10.34 17.28 0.00 60.08 70.90 7.35 148.62

Lee 674.39 11.19 15.71 0.00 63.07 74.42 7.06 160.93

Llano 243.80 4.07 6.80 0.00 23.64 27.90 2.89 58.49

Travis 627.03 10.41 14.63 0.00 58.66 69.22 6.57 149.63

Williamson 224.90 3.74 5.50 0.00 21.23 25.05 2.43 53.74

Total 8,310.53 137.96 194.00 0.00 777.47 917.41 87.10 1,983.22

Table 1-4. 2014 fire emissions by fire type (tpy)

SCC Level Four CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

Forest Wildfires 530.16 8.82 13.40 0.00 50.37 59.44 5.87 126.80

Prescribed Fires 7,780.37 129.14 180.60 0.00 727.09 857.97 81.23 1,856.42

Total 8,310.53 137.96 194.00 0.00 777.47 917.41 87.10 1,983.22

For 2014, fire emissions did not constitute a “significant” source of ozone-forming emissions for the

CAPCOG region. This is in sharp contrast to 2011, when the CAPCOG region experienced historically bad

wildfires. The following figure compares the criteria pollutant emissions for fires in 2011 compared to

2014. The 2011 estimates were based on EPA’s 2011 NEI v. 2.4 CO emissions were divided by 10 on the

figure below to allow the data to fit on the figure along with the other pollutants.

4 ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2011/2011neiv2_eventfire_countyscc_caphap.zip. Accessed 11/5/2016.

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2011/2011neiv2_eventfire_countyscc_caphap.zip


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Figure 1-2. Comparison of 2014 Fire Emissions to 2011 Fire Emissions (tpy)

1.4 On-Road Emissions

For on-road sources, states are required to submit activity data to the EPA, which then used the

MOVES2014 model to develop emissions estimates. Since the method that EPA uses for modeling on-

road emissions differs from the method TCEQ uses, the actual emissions estimates generated by TCEQ

for 2014 using the activity data submitted to EPA differ from the EPA’s 2014 emissions estimates using

the same activity data. The following table shows the total 2014 on-road criteria pollutant emissions

modeled by EPA for each county.5 As explained earlier, while EPA includes refueling emissions in its on-

road emissions file, the tables below do not include refueling emissions, which CAPCOG is including

among the area source emissions estimates in section 1.7 of this report.

Table 1-5. 2014 on-road source emissions totals by county (tpy)


Bastrop 5,687.64 30.17 1,229.80 0.00 34.49 63.87 7.82 525.48

Blanco 1,185.49 7.46 327.82 0.00 8.81 15.28 2.02 90.91

Burnet 3,291.10 16.70 732.95 0.00 21.23 40.17 4.68 288.45

Caldwell 3,332.77 18.77 739.82 0.00 21.14 39.57 4.84 272.91

Fayette 3,794.79 20.63 1,750.59 0.00 62.31 91.00 6.66 285.82

Hays 11,463.61 59.77 2,371.14 0.00 66.66 119.04 16.41 914.64

5 EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, on-road source emissions full detail data file.

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_onroad_byregions.zip. Accessed 9/26/2016.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

CO/10 NH3 NOX PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

Emis

sio

ns

(tp

y)

2011

2014

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_onroad_byregions.zip


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Lee 1,696.47 9.02 376.67 0.00 11.08 20.75 2.53 133.52

Llano 1,284.96 5.52 274.84 0.00 8.23 15.45 1.62 128.22

Travis 51,939.65 297.58 9,413.12 0.00 331.74 756.45 89.38 4,320.61

Williamson 18,648.05 109.00 3,611.80 0.00 114.59 237.26 32.66 1,618.32

Total 102,324.52 574.62 20,828.54 0.00 680.27 1,398.82 168.64 8,578.88

The table below shows the totals by vehicle type corresponding to the MOVES2014 source use types:

MC = Motorcycle

PC = Passenger Car

PT = Passenger Truck

LCT = Light Commercial Truck

T_Bus = Transit Bus

S_Bus = School Bus

I_Bus = Intercity Bus

R_Truck = Refuse Truck

SU_ShT = Single Unit Short-Haul Truck

SU_LhT = Single Unit Long-Haul Truck

MH = Motor Home

C_ShT = Combination Short-Haul Truck

C_LhT = Combination Long-Haul Truck

Table 1-6. 2014 on-road source emissions totals by vehicle type (tpy)

Vehicle Type CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

MC 259.92 0.64 12.32 0.00 0.46 0.73 0.12 157.38

PC 51,985.81 366.48 5,393.21 0.00 154.24 547.28 99.98 4,340.45

PT 34,022.48 132.72 4,393.39 0.00 66.39 175.05 36.63 2,636.92

LCT 9,132.44 32.85 1,249.40 0.00 21.50 49.96 9.09 706.66

T_Bus 120.46 0.33 109.89 0.00 6.89 9.26 0.16 17.65

S_Bus 65.62 0.48 252.40 0.00 13.10 16.70 0.31 14.20

I_Bus 74.31 0.38 186.12 0.00 6.05 8.91 0.24 12.36

R_Truck 141.87 0.84 272.05 0.00 13.68 19.31 0.53 16.47

SU_ShT 3,323.98 15.64 1,451.09 0.00 68.92 121.79 6.99 231.58

SU_LhT 397.70 2.51 195.20 0.00 9.44 18.50 1.05 28.74

MH 76.51 0.08 11.70 0.00 0.42 0.65 0.04 4.88

C_ShT 1,228.44 6.50 1,702.80 0.00 73.84 104.73 4.17 108.12

C_LhT 1,494.99 15.20 5,598.97 0.00 245.33 325.97 9.32 303.47

TOTAL 102,324.52 574.62 20,828.54 0.00 680.27 1,398.82 168.64 8,578.88

CAPCOG also grouped the emissions by fuel type, shown in the table below:


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Table 1-7. 2014 on-road source emissions totals by vehicle fuel type (tpy)

Fuel Type CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

Gasoline 98,398.64 537.87 11,215.37 0.00 235.49 775.03 149.48 7,886.88

Diesel 3,925.87 36.76 9,613.17 0.00 444.79 623.79 19.15 692.00

TOTAL 102,324.52 574.62 20,828.54 0.00 680.27 1,398.82 168.64 8,578.88

The table below shows a comparison between TCEQ’s 2014 on-road emissions estimate and EPA’s 2014

on-road emissions estimate using the same activity data.

Table 1-8. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated on-road emissions and EPA-estimated on-road emissions (tpy)

Estimate CO NH3 NOX PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

TCEQ 93,479.69 579.99 19,525.51 624.19 1,322.64 156.94 8,064.64

EPA 102,324.52 574.62 20,828.54 680.27 1,398.82 168.64 8,578.88

Difference 8,844.83 -5.37 1,303.03 56.08 76.18 11.70 514.24

% Difference 8.64% -0.93% 6.26% 8.24% 5.45% 6.94% 5.99%

Two possible explanations for the difference in emissions are: 1) the TCEQ’s application of emission

reductions to diesel-powered on-road vehicles due to the use of Texas Low-Emission Diesel (TxLED),

which achieves a 4.8% - 6.2% NOX reduction, depending on model year, and 2) the TCEQ approach to

modeling link-based emissions inventories, which involves applying emissions rates to link-level activity

for Bastrop, Burnet, Caldwell, Hays, Travis, and Williamson Counties, versus the EPA’s approach to

modeling county-level emissions data.

The following figure summarizes the comparison of the TCEQ’s estimated on-road NOX emissions to

EPA’s estimated on-road NOX emissions by county. EPA’s estimates were higher in every county, ranging

from 4.0% higher in Williamson County than TCEQ’s estimate up to 17.5% higher in Fayette County. The

four counties that did not have link-based emissions data had the largest deviations – 11.3% in Blanco

County, 13.9% in Llano County, 15.9% in Lee County, and 17.5% in Fayette County.


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Figure 1-3. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 On-Road NOX Emissions by County (tpy)

1.5 Non-Road Emissions

The “Non-Road” emissions category includes emissions from engines that are moved at least once a

year and are not registered to operate on public roads. This includes sources that were included in the

EPA’s non-road SCC file,6 but also includes sources that were included in EPA’s point7 and non-point8 SCC

files, including aviation, rail, and drill rig sources. The following table shows the 2014 non-road emissions

by county.

Table 1-9. 2014 non-road emissions by county (tpy)


Bastrop 1,269 0.86 632 0.03 42 43 1.22 115

Blanco 410 0.18 96 0.01 10 10 0.24 81

Burnet 3,227 0.58 299 0.13 43 47 1.07 814

Caldwell 1,233 0.59 471 0.19 33 35 1.28 192

Fayette 2,006 1.12 986 0.04 57 59 1.62 407

6 EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, non-road source emissions full detail data file.

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_nonroad_byregions.zip. Accessed 9/26/2016.

7 EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, point source emissions full detail data file.

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_facility_process_byregions.zip. Accessed 9/26/2016.

8 EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, non-point source emissions full detail data file.

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_nonpoint.zip. Accessed 9/26/2016.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

NO

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ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_facility_process_byregions.zip



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Hays 2,544 0.90 629 0.01 48 50 1.21 343

Lee 856 0.71 567 0.02 35 36 0.98 129

Llano 1,485 0.31 176 0.06 17 19 0.57 337

Travis 23,339 5.98 4,402 0.17 335 349 80.23 2,190

Williamson 6,754 3.21 2,023 0.22 167 174 5.82 697

Total 43,124 14.43 10,281 0.86 787 823 94.25 5,305

CAPCOG grouped the non-road emissions by sector and by fuel type. This roughly corresponds to SCC

levels 2 and 3. However, the SCC structure is somewhat different for “non-road” model categories than

it is for aircraft, locomotives/rail equipment, and drill rigs. CAPCOG’s summary data file submitted as

part of this report includes the structure CAPCOG used for grouping these emissions sources

corresponding to each SCC. The table below shows emissions by sector.

Table 1-10. 2014 non-road emissions by sector (tpy)

Sector CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

Agricultural Equipment 1,652 3 1,952 0.00 148 152 4 199

Airports 1,951 0 811 0.85 33 37 75 144

Commercial Equipment 10,659 1 443 0.00 36 38 1 453

Construction and Mining 4,064 7 4,287 0.00 360 372 10 593

Industrial Equipment 2,283 0 582 0.00 25 26 1 94

Lawn and Garden Equipment 13,448 1 195 0.00 70 76 1 1,149

Logging Equipment 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0

Oil and Gas Production 51 0 163 0.00 5 5 0 16

Pleasure Craft 1,823 0 103 0.00 7 8 0 572

Rail 328 1 1,660 0.00 46 47 1 86

Recreational Equipment 6,865 1 85 0.00 57 62 1 2,000

Total 43,124 14 10,281 0.86 787 823 94 5,305

Construction and mining equipment represents the single largest sector, with agricultural equipment,

rail, airports, industrial equipment, and commercial equipment all having NOX emissions above 250 tpy.

Table 1-11. 2014 non-road emissions by fuel type (tpy)

Fuel Type CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

Diesel 4,187 12 8,669 0.004 593 611 17 817

Gasoline 35,094 2 486 0.000 155 168 3 4,278

LPG 2,240 0 342 0.000 8 8 0 68

CNG 122 0 23 0.000 1 1 0 14

Aviation Fuel 1,481 0 762 0.852 32 35 73 128

Total 43,124 14 10,281 0.856 787 823 94 5,305


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The following table shows a comparison of EPA’s non-road emissions estimates to TCEQ’s emissions

estimates.

Table 1-12. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated non-road emissions and EPA-estimated non-road emissions (tpy)

Estimate CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

TCEQ 47,063.78 33.04 8,729.72 0.00 704.95 738.20 86.75 5,170.43

EPA 43,123.63 14.43 10,280.92 0.86 787.28 823.02 94.25 5,305.18

Difference -3,940.15 -18.61 1,551.20 0.86 82.33 84.82 7.50 134.75

% Difference -8.4% -56.3% 17.8% n/a 11.7% 11.5% 8.6% 2.6%

The following figure summarizes the comparison of the TCEQ’s estimated non-road NOX emissions to

EPA’s estimated non-road NOX emissions by county. As the figure shows, NOX estimates were higher in

some counties and lower in other counties.

Figure 1-4. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 Non-Road NOX Emissions by County (tpy)

The figure below shows a comparison of TCEQ’s estimates of NOX emissions by equipment classification

compared to EPA’s estimates.

0.00

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

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4,500.00

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Figure 1-5. Comparison of TCEQ and EPA Estimates of 2014 Non-Road NOX Emissions by Sector (tpy)

As the figure shows, most of the difference in NOX emissions is in the construction & mining source

classification. The Texas NONROAD (TexN) model’s specialized treatment of construction and mining

equipment is a likely explanation for this difference. TexN also includes other specialized adjustments,

including for temperature, humidity, and elevation, and post-processing adjustments for the effects of

TxLED.

1.6 Point Source Emissions Point sources are included in EPA’s detailed facility emissions inventory file.9 Since this file includes

airports and railyards, CAPCOG removed those emissions from the point source emissions totals for

each county show in the table below.

Table 1-13. 2014 point source emissions totals by county (tpy)


Bastrop 265.90 91.69 798.52 0.00 201.38 275.62 288.17 106.61

Blanco 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

9 EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, point source emissions full detail data file.


0

500

1,000

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4,000

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Burnet 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Caldwell 75.50 0.00 178.21 0.00 6.69 6.71 350.29 43.21

Fayette 5,013.58 108.99 6,012.17 0.51 469.66 814.52 884.40 288.39

Hays 4,111.46 10.35 2,508.96 0.00 223.34 407.60 1,330.51 204.40

Lee 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.46 9.47 0.00 66.48

Llano 27.17 52.51 35.06 0.00 54.02 54.02 3.40 16.14

Travis 1,101.85 23.12 1,439.49 0.00 168.92 255.62 62.94 353.50

Williamson 15.69 0.00 27.26 0.00 7.38 7.38 0.40 25.55

Total 10,611.15 286.66 10,999.67 0.52 1,140.85 1,830.94 2,920.11 1,104.28

The following table shows a comparison of EPA’s emissions estimates to TCEQ’s 2014 “State Summary”

file.10

Table 1-14. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated point source emissions and EPA-estimated point source emissions (tpy)


TCEQ 10,617 116 11,007 0.512 1,070 1,831 2,939 1,101

EPA 10,611 287 11,000 0.515 1,141 1,831 2,920 1,104

Difference -6 171 -7 0.003 71 -1 -19 3

% Difference -0.05% 59.50% -0.06% 0.59% 6.25% -0.03% -0.66% 0.27%

There are 38 total facilities in TCEQ’s 2014 point source summary, and 43 total facilities in EPA’s 2014

point source emissions inventory file. Facilities in EPA’s list that are not in TCEQ’s list include the

following:

1. BAE Systems in Travis County

2. Celestica in Travis County

3. Chemical Lime Ltd. in Burnet County

4. Flextronics America LLC in Travis County

5. Hanson Pipe & Products Inc. Austin in Travis County

The only criteria pollutants reported for these facilities are lead emissions collectively totaling 0.003 tpy,

corresponding exactly to the difference identified in the table above.

The following table shows a summary of point source emissions by Tier 1 emissions category.

10 https://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/ie/pseisums/2014statesum.xlsx

https://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/ie/pseisums/2014statesum.xlsx


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Table 1-15. 2014 point source emissions totals by EPA Tier 1 category (tpy)

Tier 1 CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

Fuel Comb. Elec. Util. 5,679 245 6,878 0.51 692 1,021 846 173

Fuel Comb. Industrial 713 1 1,019 0.00 44 44 464 85

Fuel Comb. Other 93 11 71 0.00 15 15 2 9

Storage & Transport 9 0 4 0.00 13 43 0 113

Waste Disposal & Recycling 118 0 42 0.00 46 76 6 96

Chemical & Allied Product Mfg 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 3

Metals Processing 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0

Petroleum & Related Industries 22 18 4 0.00 1 4 0 156

Other Industrial Processes 3,978 12 2,983 0.01 329 627 1,602 449

Solvent Utilization 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 20

TOTAL 10,611 287 11,000 0.52 1,141 1,831 2,920 1,104


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1.7 Area Source Emissions Area sources include any stationary sources not included in the point source inventory. This includes all

sources in EPA’s nonpoint emissions file11 other than biogenic emissions and rail emissions, and includes

the stage 2 refueling emissions in EPA’s on-road emissions file.12 The following tables show summaries

of the area source emissions by county and by tier 1 source category.

Table 1-16. 2014 area source emissions totals by county (tpy)


Bastrop 1,268 706 156 <0.01 2,379 20,772 23 1,225

Blanco 181 373 12 <0.01 525 4,637 3 154

Burnet 483 289 48 <0.01 1,285 11,274 13 524

Caldwell 1,386 974 686 <0.01 921 7,496 17 4,541

Fayette 933 768 759 <0.01 1,025 8,244 67 2,747

Hays 1,366 653 177 <0.01 2,573 22,717 67 2,017

Lee 946 639 468 <0.01 920 7,396 100 2,055

Llano 155 323 15 0.00 435 3,877 2 251

Travis 5,308 1,139 1,371 <0.01 4,895 38,260 380 12,113

Williamson 2,008 2,258 436 <0.01 4,098 32,228 118 4,731

Total 14,034 8,122 4,128 0.01 19,056 156,902 789 30,356

Table 1-17. 2014 area source emissions totals by tier 1 (tpy)

Tier 1 CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

Stationary Fuel Combustion 3,764 183 2,008 0.01 419 432 583 527

Mobile Sources 0 0 0 0.00 13,214 124,330 0 971

Industrial Processes 2,257 0 1,872 0.00 2,965 23,114 144 8,414

Solvent Utilization 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 16,853

Storage and Transport 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 3,052

Wst. Disp., Trtmt., and Rec. 5,557 8 192 0.00 652 791 56 449

Misc. 2,456 7,931 56 0.00 1,806 8,235 6 91

Total 14,034 8,122 4,128 0.01 19,056 156,902 789 30,356

The following table shows a comparison of EPA’s emissions estimates to TCEQ’s emissions estimates for

area sources. As the table shows, EPA’s estimates for NOX emissions are 2.4% higher for NOX, and 5.84%

lower for VOC.

11 EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, non-point source emissions full detail data file.


12 EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, on-road source emissions full detail data file.





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Table 1-18. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated area source emissions and EPA-estimated area source emissions (tpy)

Estimate CO NH3 NOX PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

TCEQ 10,986.24 8,860.77 4,030.75 20,288.96 173,699.33 744.81 32,237.53

EPA 14,033.75 8,121.55 4,128.12 19,056.01 156,902.16 788.56 30,356.31

Difference 3,047.51 -739.22 97.37 -1,232.95 -16,797.17 43.75 -1,881.22

% Difference 27.74% -8.34% 2.42% -6.08% -9.67% 5.87% -5.84%

CAPCOG performed more detailed analyses of each of the three area source categories that had either

>=250 tpy NOX or >=10,000 tpy VOC.


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The following table shows the emissions estimates for stationary area source fuel combustion.

Table 1-19. 2014 area source fuel combustion emissions by -estimated on-road emissions and EPA-estimated on-road emissions CAPCOG Tier 5 (tpy)

CAPCOG Tier 5 CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

Industrial Coal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Industrial Distillate Oil 14.09 2.69 54.85 0.00 4.78 7.24 139.12 0.43

Industrial Residual Oil 5.87 0.94 64.59 0.00 17.61 26.10 414.86 0.33

Industrial Natural Gas 398.24 15.17 474.09 0.00 2.04 2.56 2.84 26.07

Industrial LPG 53.18 2.00 94.95 0.00 0.27 0.33 0.40 3.47

Industrial Wood 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Industrial Kerosene 0.14 0.02 0.54 0.00 0.04 0.06 1.20 0.01

Comm. / Inst. Coal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Comm. / Inst. Distillate Oil 0.13 0.02 0.52 0.00 0.07 0.11 0.01 0.01

Comm. / Inst. Residual Oil 0.16 0.02 1.73 0.00 0.22 0.52 11.10 0.04

Comm. / Inst. Natural Gas 446.99 0.02 500.58 0.00 0.69 0.86 1.07 29.95

Comm. / Inst. LPG 0.25 0.02 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02

Comm. / Inst. Wood 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Comm. / Inst. Kerosene 0.04 0.02 0.15 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.32 0.00

Comm. / Inst. Coal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Residential Subbituminous Coal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Residential Distillate Oil 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00

Residential Natural Gas 282.66 141.34 664.28 0.00 3.04 3.67 4.23 38.89

Residential LPG 29.41 0.36 103.68 0.00 0.32 0.37 0.44 4.04

Residential Wood 2,381.25 19.92 38.23 0.00 355.14 355.14 7.06 376.23

Residential Firelog 151.28 0.00 9.29 0.00 34.35 35.46 0.00 47.85

Residential Kerosene 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00

TOTAL 3,763.68 182.54 2,008.00 0.01 418.60 432.44 582.88 527.32


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The following table shows the emissions from the oil and gas sector by equipment type.

Table 1-20. 2014 oil and gas area source emissions totals by equipment type (tpy)

CAPCOG Tier 5 CO NH3 NOX Pb PM2.5 PM10 SO2 VOC

Amine Unit 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Artificial Lift 1,132.29 0.00 732.33 0.00 6.22 6.22 0.18 9.77

Boilers/Heaters: Natural Gas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Coal Bed Methane Natural Gas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Completions 2.04 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.57 181.75

Compressors 253.04 0.00 500.16 0.00 1.78 1.78 0.11 12.36

Dehydrators 3.18 0.00 1.03 0.00 0.55 0.55 0.05 21.30

Diesel Engines 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Flares 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Flashing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fugitives 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,773.10

Heaters 500.70 0.00 345.81 0.00 45.32 45.32 1.05 32.78

Hydraulic Fracturing Engines 57.77 0.00 270.16 0.00 9.73 9.73 0.26 17.93

Mud Degassing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 132.74

Other 69.57 0.00 15.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 129.90 42.36

Pneumatic Devices & Pumps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3,275.00

Pressure/Level Controllers 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Produced Water 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 726.69

Storage and Loading 30.21 0.00 6.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2,068.56

Venting 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.94

TOTAL 2,048.80 0.00 1,871.83 0.00 63.60 63.60 144.11 8,336.28


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Lastly, the following table shows the VOC emissions by SCC level 2 & 3.

Table 1-21. 2014 solvent utilization VOC emissions by category (tpy)

SCC Level 2 SCC Level 3 VOC

Surface Coating Architectural Coatings 1,890.52

Surface Coating Auto Refinishing: SIC 7532 129.44

Surface Coating Traffic Markings 2.47

Surface Coating Textile Products: SIC 22 389.51

Surface Coating Factory Finished Wood: SIC 2426 thru 242 32.47

Surface Coating Wood Furniture: SIC 25 291.28

Surface Coating Metal Furniture: SIC 25 177.51

Surface Coating Paper: SIC 26 2.41

Surface Coating Plastic Products: SIC 308 277.86

Surface Coating Metal Cans: SIC 341 93.17

Surface Coating Metal Coils: SIC 3498 81.77

Surface Coating Miscellaneous Finished Metals: SIC 34 - (341 + 3498) 1,494.69

Surface Coating Machinery and Equipment: SIC 35 39.25

Surface Coating Large Appliances: SIC 363 0.84

Surface Coating Electronic and Other Electrical: SIC 36 - 363 16.25

Surface Coating Motor Vehicles: SIC 371 30.52

Surface Coating Aircraft: SIC 372 7.25

Surface Coating Marine: SIC 373 2.85

Surface Coating Railroad: SIC 374 2.03

Surface Coating Miscellaneous Manufacturing 138.44

Surface Coating Industrial Maintenance Coatings 138.13

Surface Coating Other Special Purpose Coatings 6.00

Degreasing All Processes/All Industries 733.05

Dry Cleaning All Processes 89.10

Graphic Arts All Processes 220.88

Miscellaneous Industrial Adhesive (Industrial) Application 777.03

Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All Personal Care Products 1,910.64

Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All Household Products 1,810.06


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SCC Level 2 SCC Level 3 VOC

Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All Automotive Aftermarket Products 1,094.08

Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All Coatings and Related Products 955.30

Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All Adhesives and Sealants 573.19

Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial All FIFRA Related Products 1,789.95

Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Consumer and Commercial Miscellaneous Products (Not Otherwise Covered) 70.39

Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial Cutback Asphalt 409.19

Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial Emulsified Asphalt 1,039.55

Miscellaneous Non-industrial: Commercial Pesticide Application: Agricultural 135.80

TOTAL Total 16,852.87


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1.8 Identification of “Significant” Sources of Ozone Precursors In CAPCOG’s interim report on the 2014 NEI, CAPCOG used the following criteria for determining if a

source of ozone precursor emissions was considered “significant:”

At least 250 tpy of NOX emissions;

At least 7,500 tpy of VOC emissions; or

At least 1 tpd of NOX emissions on a typical ozone season weekday;

At least 30 tpd of VOC emissions on a typical ozone season weekday.

The 250 tpy threshold for NOX emissions was based on this being the level of emissions that can trigger

prevention of significant deterioration (PSD) permitting for point sources. The 1 tpd of NOX emissions

threshold was based on a rough ratio of 10 tpd NOX emissions within the Austin-Round Rock MSA per 1

ppb peak O3, and a 0.1 ppb impact being the smallest ozone impact that could have an impact on an

area’s O3 design value. The 7,500 tpy VOC and 30 tpd VOC levels were based on a rough ratio of 300 tpd

of VOC emissions per 1 ppb peak O3.

Since the 2014 NEI data provided by EPA is only an annual estimate, for this report, CAPCOG only used

annual tpy thresholds for NOX and VOC. CAPCOG’s re-analysis of the June 2006 O3 episode data modeled

by UT in 2012 for its 2016 Ozone Conceptual Model showed that the average ratio of NOX sensitivity to

VOC sensitivity at CAMS 3 was 38.8 on the top 10 days modeled, and 38.4 on the top 5 days modeled.

These ratios are even higher for CAMS 38 (58.6 and 71.9 for the top 10 and top 5 days, respectively) and

Travis County (101.4 and 139.2 for the top 10 and top 5 days, respectively). The re-analysis showed that

it would take 385 tpd-500 tpd VOC in order to produce 1 tpd of peak O3 at CAMS 3, whereas it would

take 10 – 13 tpd NOX to produce 1 ppb peak O3 at CAMS 3. 13Therefore, CAPCOG established a general

ratio of 40 tpy VOC being equivalent to 1 tpy NOX for this analysis. The resulting thresholds for this

report are:

250 tpy NOX or higher

10,000 tpy VOC or higher

From a county-by-county perspective, each of the 10 counties in the region had at least 250 tpy NOX

emissions and at least 10,000 tpy VOC emissions, so each county’s emissions can be considered

“significant” for regional O3 formation for this report.

13 CAPCOG. CAPCOG Ozone Conceptual Model 2016. September 23, 2016. Available online at: http://www.capcog.org/documents/airquality/reports/2016/Deliverable_3.2-CAPCOG_Ozone_Conceptual_Model_2016.pdf. See figures 8-3 and 8-4.

http://www.capcog.org/documents/airquality/reports/2016/Deliverable_3.2-CAPCOG_Ozone_Conceptual_Model_2016.pdf

http://www.capcog.org/documents/airquality/reports/2016/Deliverable_3.2-CAPCOG_Ozone_Conceptual_Model_2016.pdf


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Looking region-wide, five of the six broad emissions categories met one or the other of these thresholds:

Table 1-22. Analysis of Source Categories by Emissions Thresholds

Source Category

2014 NOX Emissions met significance threshold

2014 VOC Emissions met significance threshold

Biogenic ☒ ☒

Fires ☐ ☐

Point ☒ ☐

Area ☒ ☒

On-Road ☒ ☐

Non-Road ☒ ☐

The following tables show drill-downs for each of the anthropogenic emissions source categories to

further levels of detail.

Table 1-23. Analysis of Point Sources by Emissions Thresholds

Source Category 2014 NOX Emissions (tpy) 2014 NOX Emissions met

significance threshold

Fuel Comb. Elec. Util. 6,878 ☒

Fuel Comb. Industrial 1,019 ☒

Fuel Comb. Other 71 ☐

Storage & Transport 4 ☐

Waste Disposal & Recycling 42 ☐

Chemical & Allied Product Mfg 0 ☐

Metals Processing 0 ☐

Petroleum & Related Industries 4 ☐

Other Industrial Processes 2,983 ☒

Solvent Utilization 0 ☐

Table 1-24. Analysis of Area Sources by Emissions Thresholds

Source Category 2014 NOX

Emissions (tpy) Met NOX significance

threshold 2014 VOC

Emissions (tpy)

Met VOC significance threshold

Stationary Source Fuel Combustion

2,008 ☒ 527 ☐

Mobile Sources 0 ☐ 971 ☐

Industrial Processes 1,872 ☒ 8,414 ☐

Solvent Utilization 0 ☐ 16,853 ☒

Storage and Transport

0 ☐ 3,052 ☐


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Source Category 2014 NOX

Emissions (tpy) Met NOX significance

threshold 2014 VOC

Emissions (tpy)

Met VOC significance threshold

Waste Disposal, Treatment, and

Recovery 192 ☐ 449 ☐

Miscellaneous Area Sources

56 ☐ 91 ☐

Table 1-25. Area source emissions categories meeting the NOX significance threshold

Emissions Source Type Source Category 2014 NOX Emissions

(tpy)

Artificial Lift Industrial Processes 732

Residential Natural Gas Fuel Combustion Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 664

Comm./Inst. Natural Gas Fuel Combustion Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 501

Compressors Industrial Processes 500

Industrial Natural Gas Fuel Combustion Stationary Source Fuel Combustion 474

Heaters Industrial Processes 346

Hydraulic Fracturing Engines Industrial Processes 270

There are no more detailed-level solvent utilization sources that meet the 10,000 tpy VOC emissions

threshold to be considered “significant.”

Table 1-26. Analysis of On-Road Emissions by Emissions Thresholds

Source Category

2014 NOX Emissions (tpy) 2014 NOX Emissions met significance

threshold

Gasoline 11,215 ☒

Diesel 9,613 ☒

MC 12 ☐

PC 5,393 ☒

PT 4,393 ☒

LCT 1,249 ☒

T_Bus 110 ☐

S_Bus 252 ☒

I_Bus 186 ☐

R_Truck 272 ☒

SU_ShT 1,451 ☒

SU_LhT 195 ☐

MH 12 ☐

C_ShT 1,703 ☒

C_LhT 5,599 ☒


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Table 1-27. Analysis of Non-Road Emissions by Emissions Thresholds

Source Category 2014 NOX Emissions (tpy) 2014 NOX Emissions met

significance threshold

Gasoline 8,669 ☐

Diesel 486 ☐

LPG 342 ☐

CNG 23 ☐

Aviation Fuel 762 ☐

Agricultural Equipment 1,952 ☒

Airports 811 ☒

Commercial Equipment 443 ☒

Construction and Mining Equipment 4,287 ☒

Industrial Equipment 582 ☒

Lawn and Garden Equipment 195 ☐

Logging Equipment 0 ☐

Oil and Gas Production 163 ☐

Pleasure Craft 103 ☐

Rail 1,660 ☒

Recreational Equipment 85 ☐

Table 1-28. Non-road equipment types meeting the NOX significance threshold

Equipment Type Sector 2014 NOX Emissions (tpy)

Line Haul Locomotives – Class I Rail 1,414

Agricultural Tractors Agricultural Equipment 1,398

Crawler Tractor/Dozers Construction and Mining Equipment 1,010

Commercial Aircraft Airports 703

Excavators Construction and Mining Equipment 510

Skid Steer Loaders Construction and Mining Equipment 376

Forklifts Industrial Equipment 331

Rollers Construction and Mining Equipment 316

Tractors/Loaders/Backhoes Construction and Mining Equipment 291

Off-Highway trucks Construction and Mining Equipment 268

Rough Terrain Forklifts Construction and Mining Equipment 257

SCC-level emissions sources meeting the NOX emissions significance threshold are shown in the table

below:


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Table 1-29. Individual SCCs Meeting the NOX significance threshold ranked

SCC SCC Level 1 SCC Level 2 SCC Level 3 SCC Level 4 2014 NOX

(tpy) Rank

2202620080 Mobile Sources Highway Vehicles -

Diesel Combination Long-

haul Truck All on and off-network

processes except refueling 5,599 1


Gasoline Passenger Car

All on and off-network processes except refueling

5,366 2

10100226 External

Combustion Boilers

Electric Generation Subbituminous Coal,

Pulverized Boiler, Dry Bottom

Tangential-fired 5,266 3


Gasoline Passenger Truck


4,248 4

2701220000 Natural Sources Biogenic Vegetation/Agricultu

re Total 3,276 5

30500623 Industrial Processes

Mineral Products Cement

Manufacturing (Dry Process)

Preheater/Precalciner Kiln 2,388 6


Diesel Combination Short-



2285002006 Mobile Sources Railroad Equipment Diesel Line Haul Locomotives: Class

I Operations 1,414 8

2270005015 Mobile Sources Off-highway Vehicle

Diesel Agricultural Equipment

Agricultural Tractors 1,386 9


Diesel Single Unit Short-




Gasoline Light Commercial

Truck All on and off-network


20100201 Internal

Combustion Engines

Electric Generation Natural Gas Turbine 1,072 12


Diesel Construction and

Mining Equipment Crawler Tractor/Dozers 1,010 13


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(tpy) Rank


Oil and Gas Exploration and Production

All Processes Artificial Lift 732 14

2275020000 Mobile Sources Aircraft Commercial Aircraft Total: All Types 703 15

2104006000 Stationary Source Fuel Combustion

Residential Natural Gas Total: All Combustor Types 664 16


Mineral Products Lime Manufacture Calcining: Rotary Kiln **

(See SCC Codes 3-05-016-18,-19,-20,-21)

531 17



Mining Equipment Excavators 510 18


Commercial/Institutional

Natural Gas Total: Boilers and IC Engines 501 19


Industrial Natural Gas Total: Boilers and IC Engines 474 20

20200201 Internal

Combustion Engines

Industrial Natural Gas Turbine 389 21



Mining Equipment Skid Steer Loaders 373 22



On-Shore Gas Production

Natural Gas Fired 4Cycle Rich Burn Compressor Engines 50 To 499 HP

352 23


Gasoline Single Unit Short-


processes except refueling 327 24



On-Shore Oil Production

Heater Treater 319 25



Mining Equipment Rollers 315 26



Mining Equipment Tractors/Loaders/Backhoes 290 27

2267003020 Mobile Sources LPG Industrial Equipment Forklifts 272 28


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(tpy) Rank



All Processes Hydraulic Fracturing Engines 270 29



Mining Equipment Off-highway Trucks 268 30


Diesel Refuse Truck


266 31



Mining Equipment Rough Terrain Forklifts 256 32


Diesel Intercity Bus


252 33


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Biogenic emissions are the only SCC-level source that meets the VOC significance threshold for the

region (2701200000, Natural Sources/Biogenic/Vegetation/Total).

1.9 Summary & Conclusions Regarding 2014 NEI EPA’s 2014 NEI shows that the CAPCOG region has 34 distinct SCC-level emissions sources that can be

considered “significant” sources of ozone precursor emissions, with mobile sources making up about 2/3

of the anthropogenic NOX emissions from the region and stationary sources making up about 1/3 of the

anthropogenic emissions. As the table above shows, the top 10 sources of anthropogenic NOX emissions

in the region include:

1. Diesel combination long-haul trucks

2. Gasoline-powered personal cars

3. Electric generation in coal-fired boilers

4. Gasoline-powered passenger trucks

5. Biogenic sources

6. Cement manufacturing

7. Diesel combination short-haul trucks

8. Diesel class I line-haul locomotives

9. Diesel non-road agricultural tractors

10. Diesel single-unit short-haul trucks

These 10 sources account for 64% of all NOX emissions for the region.

There are numerous ways to organize and analyze these data. For the purposes of understanding

general categories/sectors of emissions, CAPCOG feels that the following grouping of the top 17

categories of sources is most useful for targeting future work on emissions inventory

development/refinement and emissions control strategies. CAPCOG converted the VOC emissions into

“NOX-equivalent” emissions by dividing the VOC emissions by 40 in order to obtain a combined “NOX +

NOX equivalent” emissions estimate in order to rank these sources.

Table 1-30. Summary of Significant Sources of Ozone-Forming Emissions in the CAPCOG Region

Source Category NOX (tpy)

VOC (tpy)

NOX+VOC NOX

equivalent (tpy)

Rank

On-Road Passenger Vehicles 9,787 6,977 9,961 1

On-Road Heavy-Duty Trucks 9,220 688 9,237 2

Biogenic Sources 3,276 189,923 8,024 3

Point Industrial Fuel Combustion 6,984 534 6,997 4

Point Fuel Comb. Elec. Util. 6,878 173 6,882 5

Non-Road Construction and Mining Equipment 4,287 593 4,302 6

Area Source Oil and Gas Production 1,872 8,336 2,080 7

Non-Road Agricultural Equipment 1,952 199 1,957 8


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Source Category NOX (tpy)

VOC (tpy)

NOX+VOC NOX

equivalent (tpy)

Rank

Non-Road Rail 1,660 86 1,662 9

On-Road Light-Duty Commercial Vehicles 1,249 707 1,267 10

Area Source Residential Fuel Combustion 816 467 827 11

Non-Road Airports 811 144 815 12

Area Source Industrial Fuel Combustion 689 30 690 13

Non-Road Industrial Equipment 582 94 584 14

On-Road Buses 548 44 550 15

Area Source Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion 503 30 504 16

Non-Road Commercial Equipment 443 453 454 17

The following table summarizes the overall differences between the region’s anthropogenic criteria

pollutant emissions estimates provided by TCEQ and those provided by EPA for the 2014 NEI.

Table 1-31. Comparison of TCEQ-estimated anthropogenic emissions and EPA-estimated anthropogenic emissions (tpy)


TCEQ 162,147 9,590 43,293 0.51 22,688 177,591 3,928 46,574

EPA 170,093 8,998 46,238 1.38 21,665 160,955 3,971 45,344

Difference 7,946 -592 2,945 0.87 -1,024 -16,636 44 -1,229

% Difference 4.90% -6.18% 6.80% 170.34% -4.51% -9.37% 1.12% -2.64%

Most of the difference in the NOX emissions can be attributed to differences in the non-road emissions,

while the other significant difference is in the on-road emissions. These differences appear to be

primarily attributable to the difference in the modeling process and tools each agency used and the

assumptions regarding the impact of Texas Low-Emission Diesel (TxLED), which achieves a 4.8-6.2%

reduction in NOX emissions from most diesel engines other than non-road diesel engines under 25 HP.

EPA does not appear to have applied this emission reduction impact to the diesel emissions estimates

for on-road sources and non-road sources modeled in MOVES2014, while TCEQ did. The locomotive

emissions estimates produced by ERG for TCEQ matched the emissions estimates CAPCOG obtained

from EPA for the 2014 NEI, and those estimates did include the impacts of TxLED.


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2 Documentation of Updates to the 2014 NEI As described in the CAPCOG 2014 NEI Review Interim Report, CAPCOG identified a number of

opportunities for improving and updating the data TCEQ submitted to EPA for the AERR that could be

used as part of the updates to the 2014 NEI for the next version of the data.14 In consultation with TCEQ,

CAPCOG proceeded with three of the identified emissions inventory improvement projects:

1. Revisions to the imcoverage county databases (CDBs) for MOVES2014 to update the I/M

compliance factors for use in on-road emissions modeling for Travis and Williamson Counties

2. Revisions to the fuelformulation CDBs fuel parameters for all 10 counties in the CAPCOG region

and the other 217 counties that were grouped with CAPCOG counties in “fuel regions” in the

2014 AERR submission by TCEQ.

3. Revisions to the area source commercial fuel combustion activity and emissions estimates for all

10 counties in the CAPCOG region.

This part of the report documents each of these updates.

2.1 Updates to the I/M County Databases for the On-Road Emissions Inventory CAPCOG contracted with ERG to update the MOVES2014 imcoverage county databases (CDB) that TCEQ

submitted to EPA for the 2014 AERR in order to reflect empirically-derived compliance factors passenger

cars, passenger trucks, and light commercial trucks for Travis and Williamson Counties. These

compliance factors were developed by ERG in a 2015 project for CAPCOG based on programmatic data

collected in the region in 2012 and 2013.15 The table below summarizes the existing and updated

compliance factors for the on-board diagnostic (OBD) and two-speed idle (TSI) tests for each source use

type.

Table 2-1. I/M Compliance Factor Updates for Travis and Williamson Counties

Test Type Source Use Type Existing Compliance

Factor Updated Compliance

Factor

OBD (96+ MY) Passenger Car 0.9312 0.8519

OBD (96+ MY) Passenger Truck 0.9126 0.8348

OBD (96+ MY) Light Commercial Truck 0.8660 0.7922

TSI (95 and older) Passenger Car 0.9312 0.8595

TSI (95 and older) Passenger Truck 0.9126 0.8423

TSI (95 and older) Light Commercial Truck 0.8660 0.7993

14 CAPCOG. CAPCOG 2014 NEI Review Interim Report. April 25, 2016. http://www.capcog.org/documents/airquality/reports/2016/Deliverable_2.1.2_CAPCOG_2014_NEI_Review_Interim_Report_final.pdf 15 http://www.capcog.org/documents/airquality/reports/2015/Austin_Area_I-M_Benefit_Analysis_2015_revised_2015_12_16.pdf

http://www.capcog.org/documents/airquality/reports/2015/Austin_Area_I-M_Benefit_Analysis_2015_revised_2015_12_16.pdf

http://www.capcog.org/documents/airquality/reports/2015/Austin_Area_I-M_Benefit_Analysis_2015_revised_2015_12_16.pdf


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2.2 Updates to the Fuel County Databases for the On-Road Emissions Inventory The second update to the 2014 NEI on-road activity data involved updates to the fuelformulation CDBs

for CAPCOG counties and the other counties that had been grouped with CAPCOG counties in the

fuelformulation CDBs in TCEQ’s 2014 AERR submission. This was based primarily on significantly higher

gasoline sulfur content observed in fuel samples collected in the CAPCOG region compared to samples

collected elsewhere in the fuel regions developed by TCEQ and the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI)

for this project.

2.2.1 Existing Fuel County Databases

TTI’s documentation for the development of the 2014 AERR submissions for TCEQ included a report

documenting the link-based inventories developed using travel demand model for Bastrop, Burnet,

Caldwell, Hays, Travis, and Williamson Counties,16 as well as a report documenting non-link-based

inventories for all counties in Texas that lack travel demand model data, including Blanco, Fayette, Lee,

and Llano Counties.17 These reports document the fuel property assumptions TTI used for the emissions

modeling, which involved grouping counties into six regions based on regulatory requirements.

1. Federal 9.0 Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) limit (RVP waiver available for E10);

2. State 7.8 RVP limit (no available RVP waiver);

3. El Paso 7.0 RVP limit (no RVP waiver);

4. Reformulated Gasoline (RFG);

5. Federal 7.8 RVP limit (RVP waiver available for E10); and

6. Same as Region 1, except a different distribution network (per EPA OTAQ).

For summer gasoline properties, TTI used data from ERG’s 2014 summer fuel sampling study18 as the

basis for the summertime regional fuel properties for each region except for Region 5, for which, TCEQ

relied on EPA’s Texas RFG survey data. For winter gasoline properties, TTI used MOVES default

formulations for non-RFG counties, and used EPA’s Texas RFG survey data for fuel properties in RFG

counties, except for RVP, which was the MOVES default.

TTI calculated the average fuel property for each grade of gasoline (Regular (RU), Medium Grade (MU),

and Premium Grade (PU)) for each region, and then weighted the results based on the latest available

sales volumes by grade from the U.S. Energy Information Administration:

RU: 88.0%

MU: 6.2%

PU: 5.8%.

16 TTI. 2014 On-Road Mobile Source Annual, Summer Weekday and Winter Workday Emissions Inventories: Austin area. ftp://amdaftp.tceq.texas.gov/pub/Mobile_EI/AERR/2014/AUS%20AERR14%20Final.pdf. November 2015. 17 TTI. 2014 On-Road Mobile Source Annual, Summer Weekday and Winter Workday Emissions Inventories: 214 Counties. ftp://amdaftp.tceq.texas.gov/pub/Mobile_EI/AERR/2014/VLink%20AERR14%20Final.pdf 18 https://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/mob/5821199776FY1420-20140815-ergi-summer_2014_fuels.pdf

ftp://amdaftp.tceq.texas.gov/pub/Mobile_EI/AERR/2014/AUS AERR14 Final.pdf

ftp://amdaftp.tceq.texas.gov/pub/Mobile_EI/AERR/2014/VLink AERR14 Final.pdf

https://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/mob/5821199776FY1420-20140815-ergi-summer_2014_fuels.pdf

https://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/mob/5821199776FY1420-20140815-ergi-summer_2014_fuels.pdf


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The tables below summarize the summer and winter gasoline fuel properties.

Table 2-2. Existing Summer 2014 Gasoline Fuel Formulation Inputs - Texas MOVES Fuel Regions

MOVES Fuel Formulation Field

Units Region 1 Region 2 Region

3 Region

4 Region

5 Region

6

fuelFormulationID - 10701 10702 10703 10704 10705 10706

FuelSubtypeID - 12 12 12 12 12 12

RVP psi 9.17 7.52 6.83 7.10 7.68 9.17

sulfurLevel ppm 27.66 30.84 14.84 28.47 25.41 18.42

ETOHVolume volume% 9.62 9.76 9.77 9.70 9.80 9.77

MTBEVolume volume% 0 0 0 0 0 0

ETBEVolume volume% 0 0 0 0 0 0

TAMEVolume volume% 0 0 0 0 0 0

aromaticContent volume% 20.92 22.65 25.79 14.42 25.86 15.67

olefinContent volume% 10.20 11.75 8.39 13.36 6.59 16.53

benzeneContent volume% 0.70 0.55 0.40 0.44 0.65 0.61

e200 vapor% 54.11 49.82 47.21 49.00 50.61 57.40

e300 vapor% 84.32 83.70 87.77 84.30 84.26 86.40

T50 degrees F 179.68 203.22 211.33 203.60 199.96 162.69

T90 degrees F 323.78 322.54 306.75 329.78 317.79 317.56

Table 2-3. Existing Winter 2014 Gasoline Fuel Formulation Inputs - Texas MOVES Fuel Regions

MOVES Fuel Formulation Field Units Regions 1, 3 Regions 2, 5, and 6 Region 4

fuelFormulationID - 13101 13067 10104

FuelSubtypeID - 12 12 12

RVP psi 11.61 12.07 10.85

sulfurLevel ppm 30 30 35.09

ETOHVolume volume% 10 10 10.09

MTBEVolume volume% 0 0 0

ETBEVolume volume% 0 0 0

TAMEVolume volume% 0 0 0

aromaticContent volume% 22.05 19.29 13.86

olefinContent volume% 7.05 10.46 11.02

benzeneContent volume% 0.63 0.61 0.47

e200 vapor% 53.74 54.3 58.39

e300 vapor% 87.4 83.59 86.61

T50 degrees F 194.22 186.68 155.64

T90 degrees F 310.28 326.93 317.30

For diesel fuel properties, TTI averaged sulfur estimates for TxLED counties and non-TxLED counties

using ERG’s 2014 Summer Fuel Study. The table below shows the diesel parameters used and the fuel

region groupings.


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Table 3. Existing 2014 Diesel Fuel Formulation Estimates – Texas MOVES Regions

MOVES Fuel Formulation Field Units Regions 1, 3, and 6 Regions 2, 4, and 5

fuelFormulationID - 30001 30002

FuelSubtypeID - 20 20

RVP 0 0 0

sulfurLevel ppm 3.56 6.18

ETOHVolume - 0 0

MTBEVolume - 0 0

ETBEVolume - 0 0

TAMEVolume - 0 0

aromaticContent - 0 0

olefinContent - 0 0

benzeneContent - 0 0

e200 - 0 0

e300 - 0 0

BioDieselEsterVolume - \N \N

CetaneIndex - \N \N

PAHContent - \N \N

T50 - 0 0

T90 - 0 0

The table below shows the fuel region TTI used for each county.

Table 2-4. CAPCOG Counties & Corresponding Fuel Region

County Fuel Region

Bastrop 2

Blanco 1

Burnet 1

Caldwell 2

Fayette 2

Hays 2

Lee 2

Llano 1

Travis 2

Williamson 2


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2.2.2 Updates to Fuel County Databases

As described in the CAPCOG 2014 NEI Review Interim Report for this project,19 the gasoline sulfur

properties for the samples collected in the CAPCOG region were substantially different from the sulfur

levels in the corresponding fuel regions.20 The following table describes the five locations in the CAPCOG

region where ERG collected gasoline and diesel samples.

Table 2-5. 2014 Summer Fuel Study Sampling Locations in the CAPCOG Region

Location Address City County Sampling Date

Stripes 2432 2501 S. Water St. Burnet Burnet 6/12/2014

7-Eleven Store 36600 1625 E. Parmer Ln. Austin Travis 6/9/2014

M&S Food Mart 5511 Cameron Rd. Austin Travis 6/11/2014

Discover Food Mart 1 7200 N IH 35 Austin Travis 6/12/2014

Rattlers Country Store 15 2409 W State Highway 71 La Grange Fayette 6/9/2014

For the updates to the 2014 AERR county databases for CAPCOG counties, CAPCOG calculated average

summer gasoline fuel properties for all samples collected in the CAPCOG region, and then re-calculated

the average fuel properties for the remaining counties in the regions 1 and 2. While the sulfur fuel

parameter stood out among the fuel parameters as substantially different for the CAPCOG region,

CAPCOG calculated region-specific averages for all gasoline fuel properties in order to maintain internal

consistency. The table below summarizes the new summer gasoline fuel properties associated with each

of these regions.

Table 2-6. Updated Summer 2014 Gasoline Fuel Formulation Inputs For Selected Regions


Units Region 1 (existing)

Region 2 (existing)

Region 1 Minus

CAPCOG Counties

Region 2 Minus

CAPCOG Counties

CAPCOG Counties

fuelFormulationID - 10701 10702 10708 10709 10707

FuelSubtypeID - 12 12 12 12 12

RVP psi 9.17 7.52 9.17 7.55 7.76

sulfurLevel ppm 27.66 30.84 27.60 29.65 41.36

ETOHVolume volume% 9.62 9.76 9.62 9.77 9.70

MTBEVolume volume% 0 0 0 0 0

ETBEVolume volume% 0 0 0 0 0

TAMEVolume volume% 0 0 0 0 0

aromaticContent volume% 20.92 22.65 20.90 23.16 22.38

olefinContent volume% 10.20 11.75 10.08 11.23 15.48

19 http://www.capcog.org/documents/airquality/reports/2016/Deliverable_2.1.2_CAPCOG_2014_NEI_Review_Interim_Report_final.pdf 20 http://www.capcog.org/documents/airquality/reports/2016/Deliverable_2.1.2_CAPCOG_2014_NEI_Review_Interim_Report_final.pdf.

http://www.capcog.org/documents/airquality/reports/2016/Deliverable_2.1.2_CAPCOG_2014_NEI_Review_Interim_Report_final.pdf





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Units Region 1 (existing)

Region 2 (existing)

Region 1 Minus

CAPCOG Counties

Region 2 Minus

CAPCOG Counties

CAPCOG Counties

benzeneContent volume% 0.70 0.55 0.85 0.68 0.50

e200 vapor% 54.11 49.82 59.87 48.55 50.02

e300 vapor% 84.32 83.70 84.20 84.95 92.19

T50 degrees F 179.68 203.22 179.66 202.77 199.78

T90 degrees F 323.78 322.54 323.95 320.53 333.11

The following figure shows the average fuel sulfur contents for each grade of gasoline for each resulting

fuel region from the June round of sampling (there was also a July round of sampling in the Houston

area to check for temporal consistency). Since the DFW counties were not modeled by TTI, CAPCOG

designated these counties separately as its own region as well. The 95% confidence interval for each

region is shown as well, illustrating that the CAPCOG region’s average sulfur content was statistically

higher than all other fuel regions sampled.21

Figure 2-1. Average June 2014 Gasoline Sulfur Content by Fuel Region (ppm) with 95% Confidence Interval

CAPCOG provided the updated data to ERG, which updated the MOVES2014 fuelformulation county

CDBs that TCEQ submitted to EPA for the 2014 AERR.

21 Fuel region 5 has very large confidence intervals that include the average sulfur contents calculated for CAPCOG, but the lowest level of the confidence interval for CAPCOG’s averages are higher than the averages for Region 5.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

Regular Medium Premium

Sulf

ur

Co

nte

nt (

pp

m)

Gasoline Fuel Grade

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

R6

CAPCOG

DFW


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CAPCOG did not update the winter gasoline formulation or diesel formulation data. Due to lack of

recent, region-specific data for winter gasoline formulation and the fact that summer fuel formulation

accuracy is far more important to CAPCOG for ozone planning purposes, CAPCOG determined that an

update to the winter fuel formulation was unnecessary. For diesel, there were not statistically significant

differences between CAPCOG’s average diesel sulfur content and the average diesel fuel sulfur content

for the remaining parts of the state. However, CAPCOG did calculate somewhat different averages for

each fuel region, as the table below shows.

Table 2-7. Comparison of Diesel Sulfur Averages in TTI Report & CAPCOG Calculations (ppm)

Regions Presented in TTI Report Calculated by CAPCOG % Difference

Fuel Regions 1, 3, and 6 3.56 5.69 +60%

Fuel Regions 2, 4, and 5 6.18 6.30 +2%

Since the average for the CAPCOG region (5.60 ppm) is not statistically significantly different from the

average sulfur content for these other regions, CAPCOG decided not to update this parameter.

2.3 Updates to the Commercial Fuel Combustion Emissions Estimates for the Area Source Emissions Inventory

Area source commercial/institutional natural gas combustion (SCC 2103006000) is a significant source of

NOX emissions in the CAPCOG region and is characterized by high degrees of uncertainty. This section

describes the basis for the existing 2014 emissions inventory estimates and CAPCOG’s updates to these

estimates.

2.3.1 Existing

This subsection describes the basis for the existing 2014 area source commercial fuel combustion

emissions estimates for the CAPCOG region, including the activity estimates, emissions factors, and a

summary of the existing emissions estimates.

2.3.1.1 Activity Estimates

The existing 2014 area source commercial natural gas combustion emissions estimates are based on the

EPA’s ICI Tool v. 1.4.22 The database in the tool includes state-level industrial and commercial fuel

consumption data from the EIA through 2013 and county-level allocation factors based on employment

data. The commercial fuel consumption allocations are based on each county’s employment in the

“commercial” sector relative to the state’s employment in the sector. The “commercial” sector includes

NAICS codes 42-92. The allocation factors in the ICI tool use the 2011 County Business Patterns (CBP)

employment in NAICS Codes 42-81 and county-level local government employment data in the 2012

Census of Governments. The table below shows the allocation factors for each county in the CAPCOG

region in the ICI tool database.

22 Available at ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/doc/nonpoint (Accessed 6/11/2016).

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/doc/nonpoint


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Table 2-8. Existing County Allocations for Commercial Fuel Combustion in the ICI Tool v. 1.4

County Commercial Allocation

Bastrop 0.1262%

Blanco 0.3916%

Burnet 0.1047%

Caldwell 0.0562%

Fayette 0.0679%

Hays 0.4417%

Lee 0.0333%

Llano 0.0379%

Travis 5.5338%

Williamson 1.2791%

SUBTOTAL 8.0724%

TCEQ’s documentation for this source category23 indicates that it used a modified version of the 2014

Industrial Commercial ICI tool that included the 2014 statewide natural gas consumption estimate for

the commercial sector for 2014 (184,908 MMCF), as well as employment in the 2012 CBP. It was not

initially clear to CAPCOG staff whether TCEQ also included the 2012 Census of Governments local

government data that is included in EPA’s ICI tool v 1.4.24 TCEQ staff subsequently confirmed to CAPCOG

that it did not directly use the ICI tool, and only used the 2012 CBP employment data as the basis for

county-level allocations.

2.3.1.2 Emissions Factors

The following table shows the emissions factors that were used in the existing 2014 emissions estimates.

For the most part, these factors correspond to the AP-42 emissions factor for external combustion of

natural gas.25 Specifically, for nitrogen oxides (NOX) and carbon monoxide (CO), the emissions factors

corresponds to uncontrolled small boilers (<100 MMBtu/hr heat input). The PM emissions factors,

however, are not based on AP-42, and instead are based on a 2009 ERTAC research project.

Table 2-9. Emissions Factors Used for Area Source Commercial and Institutional Fuel Combustion

Pollutant Emissions Factor (lbs/MMCF)

Carbon Monoxide (CO) 84

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 120,000

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 2.2

Ammonia (NH3) 0.49

Nitrogen Oxides (NOX) 100

PM10 - Primary 0.52

PM2.5 – Primary 0.43

23 2014 Area Source Reference Spreadsheet.xlsx 24 Cell K16 in the “Area Source” tab of the “2014 Area Source Reference Spreadsheet” states “2013 EIA’s SEDS Fuel Data; 2012 County Business Patterns,” without reference to the 2012 Census of Governments or the ICI tool EPA uses. 25 https://www3.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/ch01/final/c01s04.pdf

https://www3.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/ch01/final/c01s04.pdf


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Pollutant Emissions Factor (lbs/MMCF)

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) 0.6

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) 5.5

Implicit in the use of these emissions factors are the assumptions that:

1. All area source commercial/institutional natural gas combustion is occurring in external

combustion devices rather than internal combustion devices; and

2. All area source commercial/institutional natural gas combustion devices are uncontrolled.

2.3.1.3 Point Source Subtraction

TCEQ indicated in its “2014 Area Source Reference Spreadsheet” that point source reductions occurred

at emissions level. In an e-mail from TCEQ to CAPCOG, TCEQ clarified that the point source reductions

were made at the county level.26 CAPCOG does not have any direct data or documentation that explicitly

lays out these subtractions or adjustments..

2.3.1.4 Temporal Allocation for Average Ozone Season Day Weekday Estimates

TCEQ’s 2014 Area Source Reference Spreadsheet.xlsx includes descriptions of the temporal allocations

used to develop ozone season weekday emissions estimates based on the annual emissions estimates.

The description indicates that there is no seasonal adjustment factor, and that the average ozone

season weekday emissions estimate is based on dividing the annual total by 312 days (6 out of 7 days of

the week)..

2.3.1.5 Summary

The available documentation indicates that the following steps were followed by TCEQ in calculating the

area source commercial/institutional combustion emissions for the 2014 NEI.

1. Obtain the state-level fuel consumption for the commercial sector for 2014 from EIA.

2. Allocate the state-level fuel consumption to each county based on the ratio of the county’s

employment in NAICS codes 42-92 to the state employment in NAICS codes 42-92.

3. Calculate the county-level emissions.

4. Subtract any point source commercial/institutional fuel combustion point source emissions from

facilities in each county from the county’s area source emissions total.

The following table shows the emissions estimates provided by TCEQ, along with the calculated activity,

based on the total amount of NOX emissions and its emissions rate of 100 lbs NOX/MMCF.

Table 2-10. Existing 2014 Area Source Commercial/Institutional Natural Gas Combustion Activity and Emissions Estimates

County Activity (MMCF)

CO (tpy)

NH3 (tpy)

NOX (tpy)

PM2.5 (tpy)

PM10 (tpy)

SO2 (tpy)

VOC (tpy)

Bastrop 237.20 9.96 0.00 11.86 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.65

Blanco 28.20 1.18 0.02 1.41 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.08

26 E-mail communication from Greg Lauderdale, TCEQ, to Andrew Hoekzema, CAPCOG. February 22, 2016.


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CO (tpy)

NH3 (tpy)

NOX (tpy)

PM2.5 (tpy)

PM10 (tpy)

SO2 (tpy)

VOC (tpy)

Burnet 187.80 7.89 0.00 9.39 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.52

Caldwell 111.60 4.69 0.00 5.58 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.31

Fayette 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Hays 794.40 33.36 0.00 39.72 0.10 0.14 0.24 2.18

Lee 61.80 2.60 0.00 3.09 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.17

Llano 78.20 3.28 0.00 3.91 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.22

Travis 6,447.80 297.31 0.00 322.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.15

Williamson 2,064.60 86.72 0.00 103.23 0.44 0.54 0.62 5.68

TOTAL 10,011.60 446.99 0.02 500.58 0.69 0.87 1.07 29.96

2.3.2 Updates & Other Data Sources Reviewed

This section describes CAPCOG’s updates to the 2014 annual and OSD estimates, as well as other data

sources CAPCOG reviewed and evaluated. CAPCOG’s updates involve the following changes relative to

the approach TCEQ took:

Use of the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) “TRACER Datalink” 2014 employment data for

NAICS codes 42-92 as the basis for county allocation factors, rather than the CBP and Census of

Governments employment data used by TCEQ;

Subtractions of estimated point source fuel consumption activity for two point sources in Travis

County (3M and the University of Texas at Austin’s Hal Weaver Power Plant) from the Travis

County activity allocation, rather than subtracting point source emissions from the county’s

emissions total for the sector;

Adjustments to the NOX emissions factor to account for the emissions standards that apply to

water heaters, boilers, and process heaters sold in Texas starting July 1, 2002, under 30 TAC,

Chapter 117, Subchapter E, Division 3; and

Adjustments to the temporal profile to account for the share of commercial sector natural gas

consumed in Texas from May – September as reported by the EIA, and the weekday/weekend

allocations used in the NONROAD model.

CAPCOG also evaluated two additional data sources for this project: 2014 Gas Utility Reports from the

Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) and the 2012 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey

(CBECS). While both of these data sources provide valuable data for this sector, CAPCOG determined

that their limitations precluded their use in these updates.

2.3.2.1 Updated County-Level Allocations

Whereas TCEQ used the 2012 County Business Patterns (CBP) employment data as the basis for

allocating state-level fuel combustion activity to the county level, CAPCOG used the Texas Workforce

Commission (TWC) Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) employment data obtained from its


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“TRACER” website.27 Both data sources rely on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW),

but the TWC data includes data on all public sector employment and data for NAICS Code 92 – Public

Administration, which the CBP and Census of Governments lack. Specifically, reliance on the CBP and

Census of Governments leaves out state and federal employees. As the host to the state’s capital, this

omission may have a significant effect on county-level allocations in this region, particularly in Travis

County. Another advantage of this dataset is that there appear to be no situations in which county-level

employment in a 2-digit NAICS code is masked in the TRACER dataset for CAPCOG counties, whereas

there are many such situations with the CBP data. This primarily affects the accuracy of the allocations

to smaller counties, which may have too few establishments in any 2-digit NAICS code for the

employment data to be directly disclosed for the purposes of the CBP, but these restrictions apparently

do not prevent the Texas Workforce Commission from disclosing the data. Both datasets are based on

the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. For example, the while the CBP does not disclose the

exact number of employees in NAICS code 42 (Wholesale Trade) for Blanco County in 2014, the TRACER

datalink site reports 62 employees working in this sector in Blanco County in 2014. The allocations from

the 2012 CBP in the ICI tool rely on state-level adjustments based on the employment range reported in

the CBP, but the TRACER data provides the actual number of employees.

The following table summarizes the employment in NAICS codes 42-92 for each county and the state.

CAPCOG subtracted employment listed for two geographic categories: “out_of-state_” and

“Unknown_Loc.”

27 http://www.tracer2.com/

http://www.tracer2.com/


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Table 2-11. March 2014 Employment Totals for Texas and CAPCOG Region for NAICS Codes 42-92

Division Texas (adj.)

Bastrop County

Blanco County

Burnet County

Caldwell County

Fayette County

Hays County

Lee County

Llano County

Travis County

Williamson County

CAPCOG Total

42 552,586 257 62 434 158 563 1,560 240 243 27,600 11,548 42,665

44 1,236,244 2,523 247 2,016 1,167 1,332 11,431 582 502 59,184 20,582 99,566

48 456,988 349 109 283 638 400 1,458 251 46 11,228 2,129 16,891

51 206,424 56 0 263 42 112 736 29 36 22,281 1,513 25,068

52 482,054 350 83 376 264 389 1,172 230 214 27,783 6,337 37,198

53 193,828 119 16 201 95 195 808 165 59 13,660 1,307 16,625

54 651,413 370 114 390 128 163 1,835 199 96 66,775 9,266 79,336

55 107,980 19 0 5 0 0 271 0 0 4,498 361 5,154

56 732,454 148 121 891 316 52 2,078 41 83 48,194 8,586 60,510

61 1,147,619 2,492 334 1,377 1,015 741 10,693 532 0 59,833 17,699 94,716

62 1,471,636 1,567 185 1,681 1,370 1,073 5,486 293 507 73,430 13,923 99,515

71 136,896 123 83 155 17 100 389 14 0 10,281 2,327 13,489

72 1,052,246 2,351 264 1,521 731 981 7,555 379 434 67,767 15,324 97,307

81 310,552 443 60 320 150 182 1,828 128 118 23,899 4,907 32,035

92 438,071 1,098 145 681 463 365 1,677 629 257 49,967 3,918 59,200

Total 9,176,991 12,265 1,823 10,594 6,554 6,648 48,977 3,712 2,595 566,380 119,727 779,275

Using the unadjusted state total, the average natural gas consumption per employee for NAICS codes 42-92 was (184,907 MMCF/9,247,083

employees) * 1,000,000 CF/MMCF = 19,996 CF/employee. The following table shows each county’s share of the adjusted statewide total for

each 2-digit NAICS code.


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Table 2-12. March 2014 Employment Totals for Texas and CAPCOG Region for NAICS Codes 42-92 (% of adjusted state total)

Division Bastrop County

Blanco County

Burnet County

Caldwell County

Fayette County

Hays County

Lee County

Llano County

Travis County

Williamson County

CAPCOG Total

42 0.05% 0.01% 0.08% 0.03% 0.10% 0.28% 0.04% 0.04% 4.99% 2.09% 7.72%

44 0.20% 0.02% 0.16% 0.09% 0.11% 0.92% 0.05% 0.04% 4.79% 1.66% 8.05%

48 0.08% 0.02% 0.06% 0.14% 0.09% 0.32% 0.05% 0.01% 2.46% 0.47% 3.70%

51 0.03% 0.00% 0.13% 0.02% 0.05% 0.36% 0.01% 0.02% 10.79% 0.73% 12.14%

52 0.07% 0.02% 0.08% 0.05% 0.08% 0.24% 0.05% 0.04% 5.76% 1.31% 7.72%

53 0.06% 0.01% 0.10% 0.05% 0.10% 0.42% 0.09% 0.03% 7.05% 0.67% 8.58%

54 0.06% 0.02% 0.06% 0.02% 0.03% 0.28% 0.03% 0.01% 10.25% 1.42% 12.18%

55 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.25% 0.00% 0.00% 4.17% 0.33% 4.77%

56 0.02% 0.02% 0.12% 0.04% 0.01% 0.28% 0.01% 0.01% 6.58% 1.17% 8.26%

61 0.22% 0.03% 0.12% 0.09% 0.06% 0.93% 0.05% 0.00% 5.21% 1.54% 8.25%

62 0.11% 0.01% 0.11% 0.09% 0.07% 0.37% 0.02% 0.03% 4.99% 0.95% 6.76%

71 0.09% 0.06% 0.11% 0.01% 0.07% 0.28% 0.01% 0.00% 7.51% 1.70% 9.85%

72 0.22% 0.03% 0.14% 0.07% 0.09% 0.72% 0.04% 0.04% 6.44% 1.46% 9.25%

81 0.14% 0.02% 0.10% 0.05% 0.06% 0.59% 0.04% 0.04% 7.70% 1.58% 10.32%

92 0.25% 0.03% 0.16% 0.11% 0.08% 0.38% 0.14% 0.06% 11.41% 0.89% 13.51%

Total 0.13% 0.02% 0.12% 0.07% 0.07% 0.53% 0.04% 0.03% 6.17% 1.30% 8.49%


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The figure below shows a comparison of the percentage allocation for each county in the ICI v 1.4 tool

compared to CAPCOG’s update. Overall, CAPCOG’s allocation numbers result in a 5% increase in the

region’s allocation (0.4 percentage points). In Travis County, the update results in an 12% increase in the

county-level allocation (0.6 percentage points).

Figure 2-2. Comparison of County-Level Commercial Natural Gas Combustion Allocations

The following table shows a comparison of CAPCOG’s updated county-level activity estimates without

point source subtractions to the calculated county-level allocations using the ICI tool’s allocation factors.

Table 2-13. Estimated County-Level Fuel Consumption

County ICI Tool Allocation of 2014 Activity (MMCF)

Updated County Allocation (MMCF) Difference % Difference

Bastrop 233.35 247.13 13.77 5.90%

Blanco 724.10 36.73 -687.37 -94.93%

Burnet 193.60 213.46 19.86 10.26%

Caldwell 103.92 132.06 28.14 27.08%

Fayette 125.55 133.95 8.40 6.69%

Hays 816.74 986.84 170.10 20.83%

Lee 61.57 74.79 13.22 21.47%

Llano 70.08 52.29 -17.79 -25.39%

Travis 10,232.44 11,412.04 1,179.60 11.53%

Williamson 2,365.16 2,412.39 47.23 2.00%

TOTAL 14,926.51 15,701.68 775.17 5.19%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

ICI v. 1.4 CAPCOG Update


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The large difference between the existing and updated allocation for Blanco County stands out,

particularly since the TCEQ estimate for Blanco County is far more in line with CAPCOG’ estimate.

CAPCOG double-checked the ICI database to verify that the FIPS code (48031) was correct, and was able

to confirm that it was. It appears likely that there is an error in the allocation factor listed for Blanco

County in the ICI database.

2.3.2.2 Point Source Reductions

The following point sources are listed in TCEQ’s 2014 point source summary that needed to be

evaluated for possible double-counting.

Table 2-14. Point Sources to Investigate for Possible Double-Counting with Area Sources

RN Company Facility County SIC NOX (tpy)

RN105366934 Flint Hills Resources Corpus Christi LLC

Mustang Ridge Terminal Caldwell 5171 0.5134

RN102533510 University of Texas at

Austin Hal C Weaver Power

Plant Travis 4911 399.8272

RN100542752 BFI Waste Systems of

North America BFI Sunset Farms

Landfill Travis 4953 15.71

RN100218692 3M Company 3M Austin Center Travis 8731 35.672

RN101059673 Flint Hills Resources Corpus Christi LLC

Austin Terminal Travis 5171 3.5517

RN100215938 Waste Management of

Texas Inc. Austin Community


RN101992246 Sunset Farms Energy LLC Sunset Farms Energy Travis 4911 26.01

RN102016698 Texas Disposal Systems

Inc. Texas Disposal Systems


Excluded from this list were pipeline/compressor facilities, which would have been counted elsewhere

in EIA’s statewide natural gas consumption totals.

Four of the facilities listed above are landfill gas facilities – BFI Sunset Farms Landfill, Sunset Farms

Energy, Austin Community Landfill, and the Texas Disposal Systems Landfill. Since these facilities operate

off of landfill gas, rather than pipeline gas, their fuel consumption would not have been represented in

the EIA’s estimated statewide total for natural gas consumed the commercial sector, since the EIA’s

estimates are based on surveys of commercial suppliers of natural gas through pipeline systems, and do

not include landfill gas. Since these emissions sources are not burning pipeline natural gas, it would not

be appropriate to subtract this heat input from the county’s fuel allocation.

Two of the facilities – the Flint Hills Resources Mustang Ridge and Austin terminals – have a small

amount of combustion, but it is attributable to vapor combustion units. Since this combustion activity

does not rely on the pipeline natural gas that is used as the basis for the county’s commercial and

institutional fuel combustion allocation, these sources should not be subtracted for the area source

inventory.


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3M’s facility is permitted to burn either natural gas or diesel. 3M reported 271,066 MMBtu of heat input

in 2014. EIA reports that the average heat content of natural gas delivered to customers in Texas in 2014

was 1,030 Btu/CF, which means that this heat input would translate into 263.17 MMCF of natural gas

consumption if 100% of the fuel input was natural gas. CAPCOG assumed that this would be true if

natural gas cost less per unit of heat input. Based on price data from the EIA for gas ($8.26 per MCF for

commercial gas,28 1,030 btu per CF29) and distillate ($3.70 per gallon average for on-highway diesel in

the gulf region30, 137,380 btu per gallon for low-sulfur fuel31), the cost per MMBtu of heat input for

natural gas would have been $8.02 for natural gas and $26.97 for diesel. Based on this price differential,

CAPCOG concluded that it was likely that 100% of the heat input at 3M in 2014 was from natural gas,

and should therefore be subtracted from the Travis County activity total.

Lastly, CAPCOG analyzed the Hal Weaver Power Plant, which was one of the largest sources of NOX

emissions in Travis County in 2014. While the facility is classified under the SIC Code 4911 for “Electric

Services,” the facility is owned and operated by the University of Texas at Austin strictly to supply

electricity and heat to its Austin campus, and is not connected to the grid. Therefore, the fuel purchased

by UT for the Hal Weaver Power Plant would be counted with the statewide “commercial” natural gas

fuel consumption total and should therefore be subtracted from Travis County’s activity allocation. Hal

Weaver’s 2014 EIQ reported a total of 3,841,668 MMBtu of fuel consumed in 2014 in 7 different

combustion devices. This translates into 3,729.77 MMCF in natural gas consumption, assuming 1,030

btu/CF. In “Form EIA-923,” EIA also collects and reports certain data at the facility level, including the

monthly and annual fuel consumption totals from the Hal Weaver Power Plant.32 UT reported a total of

3,848.12 MMBtu of fuel consumed in 2014 on this form, and 3,772.66 MMCF. Since the EIA data more

directly accounts for the actual quantity of fuel consumed by the plant, CAPCOG used this number.

The table below summarizes the point source subtractions CAPCOG made for this update.

Table 2-15. Point Source Subtraction Summary

Geography/Facility 2014 Activity Estimate (MMCF) Basis

Travis County 11,412.04

Allocation of 2014 Commercial Natural Gas Consumption based

on Employees in NAICS Codes 42-92

University of Texas at Austin Hal Weaver Power Plant

3,772.66 Total Fuel Consumption

Reported for Form EIA-923

3M Austin 263.17 Calculated based on heat input

reported on 2014 EIQ.

28 https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_STX_a.htm 29 https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_heat_a_EPG0_VGTH_btucf_a.htm 30 https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ 31 http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec13.pdf 32 http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia923/

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_STX_a.htm

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_heat_a_EPG0_VGTH_btucf_a.htm

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec13.pdf

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia923/


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Geography/Facility 2014 Activity Estimate (MMCF) Basis

Travis County with Point Source Subtraction 7,376.21 See Above

The following table shows the updated county-level fuel consumption totals with the point source

subtractions described above.

Table 2-16. Estimated County-Level Fuel Consumption

County 2014 NEI Activity (MMCF)

Updated w/o Point Source Subtractions

(MMCF)

Updated w/ Point Source Subtractions

(MMCF)

Update % of 2014 NEI Estimate

Bastrop 237.20 247.13 247.13 104.19%

Blanco 28.20 36.73 36.73 130.25%

Burnet 187.80 213.46 213.46 113.66%

Caldwell 111.60 132.06 132.06 118.33%

Fayette 0.00 133.95 133.95 N/A

Hays 794.40 986.84 986.84 124.22%

Lee 61.80 74.79 74.79 121.02%

Llano 78.20 52.29 52.29 66.87%

Travis 6,447.80 11,412.04 7,376.21 114.40%

Williamson 2,064.60 2,412.39 2,412.39 116.85%

TOTAL 10,011.60 15,701.68 11,665.85 116.52%

As the table shows, there is a 17% increase in total commercial/institutional natural gas combustion

estimates for the region for 2014 using CAPCOG’s updates.

2.3.2.3 Texas Railroad Commission Gas Utility Data

The Texas Railroad Commission collects and maintains data from gas utilities on quantities of gas sold to

residential, commercial, and industrial customers by year at the city/sub-county level.33 The following

table shows the total quantities of gas reported by county for “small commercial and industrial”

customers in 2014. These data do not account for any gas sold directly from a pipeline company to an

end user that was not sold through a gas utility, but they do provide a lower-end number that can be

used to validate the county-level fuel consumption totals calculated using employment data as a

surrogate.

Table 2-17. Comparison of RRC Gas Utility Data to 2014 NEI Activity

County 2014 NEI Activity (MMCF) RRC Small Commercial & Industrial (MMCF)

Bastrop 237.20 172

Blanco 28.20 0

Burnet 187.80 157

33 http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/gas-services/publications-statistics/2015-statistical-reports/

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/gas-services/publications-statistics/2015-statistical-reports/


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County 2014 NEI Activity (MMCF) RRC Small Commercial & Industrial (MMCF)

Caldwell 111.60 64

Fayette 0.00 87

Hays 794.40 425

Lee 61.80 60

Llano 78.20 19

Travis 6,447.80 3,673

Williamson 2,064.60 1,149

TOTAL 10,011.60 5,805

The following figure shows a comparison of the RRC data to EIA’s data for fuel consumption and % of

customers represented in the Texas RRC data. For this table, EIA “Commercial” sector is compared to

“Small Commercial and Industrial” in the RRC data, and “Industrial” in the EIA data is compared to

“Large Commercial and Industrial” in the RRC data.34 The similarity between the ratio of customers

between the RRC and EIA data for both the residential and commercial/small commercial and industrial

sector suggests that the EIA’s “Commercial” and the RRC’s “Small Commercial and Industrial” area

similar universes.

Table 2-18. Texas RRC Gas Data Compared to EIA Data – NG Consumed and # of Customers

34 https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_acct_a_EPG0_VF8_mmcf_a.htm

97.04%

66.91%

0.38%

92.71% 90.10%

10.33%

Residential Commercial Industrial

Texas RRC Gas Consumed/EIA Gas Consumed Texas RRC Customers/EIA Customers

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_acct_a_EPG0_VF8_mmcf_a.htm


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These data indicate that, while the gas utility data is a very good representation of the residential

natural gas consumption totals, it is missing a substantial amount of commercial and industrial fuel

consumption data. As a result, CAPCOG chose not to use these data for this project.

2.3.2.4 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey

One of the data sources CAPCOG identified in its 2014 NEI Review Interim Report that could be used to

update the commercial/institutional fuel combustion estimates was the EIA’s 2012 CBECS. This survey

was conducted between April and November 2013, and included a sample size of over 6,700 buildings

that completed the survey. A detailed description of the survey’s methodology can be found here:

https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/reports/2012/methodology/sampling.cfm.

Among the data reported in the CBECS is the estimated quantity of natural gas consumed in commercial

buildings, the number of employees working in these buildings, and the total commercial building floor

space. CBECS also provides some estimates for individual building types and by geographic region

(Census Regions and Divisions). The table below shows a summary of the national-level natural gas

consumption, employment, and floor space for each building activity type.


Activity Nat. Gas

Consumed (billion CF)

Employees (thousands)

Floor Space (million sq. ft)

CF per employee

CF per sq. foot

Education 284 10,885 12,239 26,091 23.205

Food Sales 52 1,172 1,252 44,369 41.534

Food Service 222 3,431 1,819 64,704 122.045

Health Care - Total 258 7,613 4,155 33,889 62.094

Health Care - Inpatient 214 4,281 2,374 49,988 90.143

Health Care - Outpatient 45 3,333 1,781 13,501 25.267

Lodging 215 3,066 5,826 70,124 36.904

Mercantile 284 9,117 11,330 31,151 25.066

Retail (other than mall) 72 4,023 5,439 17,897 13.238

Enclosed and strip malls 212 5,094 5,890 41,618 35.993

Office 275 33,756 15,952 8,147 17.239

Public assembly 132 3,108 5,559 42,471 23.745

Public order and safety 40 1,854 1,440 21,575 27.778

Religious worship 85 1,940 4,557 43,814 18.653

Service 119 4,031 4,630 29,521 25.702

Warehouse and storage 136 6,362 13,077 21,377 10.400

Other 79 1,611 2,002 49,038 39.461

Vacant 12 236 3,256 50,847 3.686

TOTAL 2,193 88,182 87,093 24,869 25.180

The table below shows the relative standard errors (RSE) for each data point in the table above.

https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/reports/2012/methodology/sampling.cfm


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Activity Nat. Gas

Consumed (%) Employees

(%) Floor Space (%)

Education 8.9 11.5 5.8

Food Sales 16.9 13.5 12.8

Food Service 9.6 9.1 7.6

Health Care - Total 9.4 8.1 7.4

Health Care - Inpatient 10.4 8.7 8.2

Health Care - Outpatient 16.9 12.3 11.2

Lodging 16.3 13.6 8.5

Mercantile 11.1 7.7 8.5

Retail (other than mall) 14.2 8.5 8.3

Enclosed and strip malls 12.8 11.9 12.0

Office 12.8 6.5 6.1

Public assembly 12.3 10.9 9.4

Public order and safety 18.1 20.2 13.7

Religious worship 14.3 9.0 8.8

Service 11.1 9.9 9.2

Warehouse and storage 15.0 17.4 11.7

Other 27.2 16.9 15.6

Vacant 23.5 20.1 13.4

TOTAL 5.3 5.1 4.7

One problem with using these data to estimate county-level natural gas consumption in the CAPCOG

region is that the activity types do not match NAICS codes in a 1:1 way the way that the data in the

Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) does. The best information on this that’s available is

a “rough” crosswalk at the 3-digit NAICS level that EIA provided for the 2003 CBECS.35 For example,

there are three NAICS codes associated with the “education” principal building activity, and each of

these NAICS codes has more than 1 principal building type associated with it:

611/educational services (13 building types);

624/social assistance (4 building types); and

928/national security & int'l affairs (6 building types).

The “office” building type has 50 different 3-digit NAICS codes associated with it. This lack of a 1:1

correspondence to the NAICS codes makes it impossible to apply fuel consumption per employee ratios

calculated above to county-level employment data in order to estimate the county-level activity. While

it is possible to approximate how they would split out, such an update would be very resource-intensive,

and would still be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty.

35 http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/archive/cbecs/PBAvsNAICS.xls

http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/data/archive/cbecs/PBAvsNAICS.xls


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There are also other problems with using the CBECS data – the natural gas fuel consumption estimates

appear to only represent about 75% of the total natural gas consumed in the “commercial” sector, and

there appear to be substantial differences in natural gas fuel intensity nationwide relative to the part of

the country Texas is in. The table below shows a comparison of the CBECS natural gas consumption

estimates to the EIA commercial natural gas consumption estimates at the national level and in the

West South Central census division, where Texas is located. The table also includes a comparison of the

national-level and census division-level employment, floor space, and energy intensities.

Table 2-21. U.S. and West South Central Commercial Natural Gas Comparison

Data U.S. West South Central (AR, LA, OK, TX)

Commercial Nat Gas - EIA (MMCF) 2,894,926 265,108

CBECS Nat Gas (MMCF) 2,193,000 202,000

% of Commercial Nat Gas in CBECS 75.75% 76.20%

Employees (thousands)-CBECS 88,182 10,275

Floor Space (million sq. feet) 87,093 11,394

CF/employee (CBECS) 24,869 19,659

CF/sq. foot (CBECS) 25.18 17.73

As the table shows, the CBECS accounts for about 75% of the total commercial and institutional fuel

consumption, both at the national and regional level. The national-level natural gas energy intensities

are considerably higher than the West South Central region – 27% higher for fuel consumption per

employee, and 42% higher for fuel consumption per square foot.

Finally, while CBECS also has estimates for natural gas consumed by building activity within the West

South Central census division that Texas is in, they are characterized by high degrees of uncertainty. The

following table shows these estimates and the RSE for each data point. Data points marked with “Q”

either had RSE of more than 50% or had fewer than 20 buildings sampled.

Table 2-22. West South Central Commercial Building Natural Gas and RSE from CBECS

Activity Nat. Gas Consumed

(billion CF) RSE (%)

Education 25 23.2

Food Sales Q 51.5

Food Service 38 18.0

Health Care - Total 29 19.4

Health Care - Inpatient 26 22.5

Health Care - Outpatient Q 73.6

Lodging 16 32.0

Mercantile 24 22.2

Retail (other than mall) 5 28.8

Enclosed and strip malls 19 28.2

Office 15 22.9

Public assembly Q 51.9


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Activity Nat. Gas Consumed

(billion CF) RSE (%)

Public order and safety Q 54.8

Religious worship 4 37.4

Service 10 35.3

Warehouse and storage 9 39.8

Other Q 82.0

Vacant Q 111.5

TOTAL 202 15.5

While the CBECS provides very valuable data on this sector, and clearly demonstrates that there are

different energy intensities for different commercial/institutional sub-sectors, it is not practical at this

point to update to the 2014 area source commercial/institutional natural gas combustion emissions

estimates for the CAPCOG region at this point.

2.3.2.5 Temporal Allocation for Average Ozone Season Weekdays and Weekend Days

CAPCOG’s updates include changes for the temporal allocations used to convert the annual emissions

estimates into ozone season weekday and weekend day emissions estimates.

First, CAPCOG developed an ozone seasonal adjustment factor to reflect the fraction of natural gas

consumed in the commercial sector in Texas between May and September relative to the annual total

based on EIA’s monthly estimates.36 The figure below shows the monthly estimates for 2014.

Figure 2-3. Commercial Natural Gas Consumption in Texas by Month, 2013-2015

36 https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3020tx2m.htm

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Mill

ion

Cu

bic

Fee

t (M

MC

F)

2013

2014

2015

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3020tx2m.htm


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In each of these years, natural gas consumption between May and September was 29% of the annual

total, suggesting a consistent seasonal pattern in commercial natural gas consumption. For the 2014

inventory, CAPCOG therefore allocated 29% of each county’s annual emissions to May – September.

For weekday/weekend allocation, CAPCOG used the NONROAD model’s weekday/weekend temporal

allocations for the commercial sector.37 This results in each weekday being allocated 0.1666667 of each

week’s emissions, and each weekend day being allocated 0.0833334 of each week’s total emissions.

The figure below shows a comparison of the fraction of the annual total for each ozone season day of

the week, combining both seasonality and day-of-week allocations.

Figure 2-4. Ozone Season Weekday and Weekend Day Allocations of Annual Emissions

37 https://www3.epa.gov/otaq/models/nonrdmdl/nonrdmdl2004/420p04015.pdf

0.00321

0.00321

0.00321

0.00321

0.00321

0.00321

0.000

00

0.00219

0.00219

0.00219

0.00219

0.00219

0.00110

0.00110

Mon. Tue. Wed. Thu. Fri. Sat. Sun.

Existing Updated

https://www3.epa.gov/otaq/models/nonrdmdl/nonrdmdl2004/420p04015.pdf


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2.3.2.6 NOX Controls on Small Water Heaters, Boilers, and Process Heaters

The existing commercial/institutional fuel combustion emissions estimates do not account for NOX

emissions standards that apply to water heaters, small boilers, and process heaters under Title 30,

Chapter 117, Subchapter E, Division 3, of the Texas Administrative Code.38 This rule applies to all water

heaters, boilers, and process heaters sold in Texas with a maximum rated capacity of 2.0 MMBtu/hour

or less sold in Texas after certain dates. The following table summarizes the applicable standards.

Table 2-23. Summary of NOX Emissions Standards Under 30 TAC Chapter 117, Subchapter E, Division 3

Type Capacity Emissions Standard for Sales

7/1/2002 – 12/31/2004 Emissions Standard for

Sales After 1/1/2015

Type 0 Heater or Boiler

<75,000 Btu 40 ng/J output 10 ng/J output


75,000 Btu <= Heat Input <= 400,000 Btu

40 ng/J output 40 ng/J output


400,000 Btu < Heat Input <= 2,000,000 Btu

0.037 lbs/MMBtu input 0.037 lbs/MMBtu input

Type 0 Water Heaters

<75,000 Btu 40 ng/J output 40 ng/J output


75,000 Btu <= Heat Input <= 400,000 Btu

40 ng/J output 40 ng/J output


400,000 Btu < Heat Input <= 2,000,000 Btu

0.037 lbs/MMBtu input 0.037 lbs/MMBtu input

0.037 lbs NOX/MMBtu input is equivalent to 38 lbs NOX/MMCF, assuming a 1,020 Btu/CF natural gas

heat content. Among the emissions rates in AP-42 for external natural gas combustion, only the 32 lbs

NOX/MMCF rate for boilers rated at <100 MMBtu/hr with low-NOX burners and flue gas recirculation

would be able to meet this standard. Therefore, CAPCOG assumed that any heater or boiler subject to

the 0.037 lbs NOX/MMBtu input emissions standard would have an actual NOX emissions rate of 32 lbs

NOX/MMCF.

40 ng NOX/J heat output is equivalent to 0.093 lbs NOX/MMBtu heat output. The standard 100 lbs

NOX/MMCF is equivalent to 0.098 lbs NOX/MMBtu heat input. These rates would be equivalent if the

heater/boiler was 95% efficient (MMBtu output/MMBtu input =0.95). If the heaters/boilers were less

efficient than that, the 40 ng NOX/J output would exceed 100 lbs NOX/MMCF. Therefore, CAPCOG

assumes that the 40 ng NOX/J emissions rate simply reflects the 100 lbs NOX/MMCF rate from AP-42 for

uncontrolled NOX emissions from boilers with a heat input rate of less than 100 MMBtu/hr.

10 ng NOX/J heat output is equivalent to 0.023 lbs NOX/MMBtu heat output. Compared to the 32 lbs

NOX/MMCF emissions rate associated with low-NOX burners with flue gas recirculation (0.031 lbs

NOX/MMBtu heat input), the 10 ng NOX/J heat output rate would be 74% of the heat input rate, which is

broadly consistent with the thermal efficiency that could be expected from heaters and boilers.

38 https://texreg.sos.state.tx.us/public/readtac$ext.ViewTAC?tac_view=5&ti=30&pt=1&ch=117&sch=E&div=3&rl=Y

https://texreg.sos.state.tx.us/public/readtac$ext.ViewTAC?tac_view=5&ti=30&pt=1&ch=117&sch=E&div=3&rl=Y


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Therefore, CAPCOG assumes that any boiler or heater subject to the 10 ng NOX/J heat output emissions

standard would have an emissions rate of 32 lbs NOX/MMCF.

2.3.2.7 Adjusted NOX Emissions Factor

Since the NOX emissions standards for small water heaters, boilers, and process heaters applies only to

certain model years and heat input ratings, and varies by equipment type, it is necessary to have data on

the type, age, and heat input distribution of the applicable equipment. An emissions inventory research

project conducted by the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) in 2006 included an analysis of the

different types of combustion devices at minor sources.39 HARC estimated that boilers accounted for

99% of the combined NOX emissions for boilers and process heaters in 1999.

A primary source of data for this project was detailed boiler safety inspection data for boilers that are

available from the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation (TDLR).40 CAPCOG downloaded boiler

data for each of the 10 counties in the CAPCOG region. The datasets include, among other data, the fuel

type, the manufacture date, the heat input capacity, and the name of the owner/location. These data

enabled CAPCOG to estimate the percentage of heaters and boilers that would be subject to the 30 TAC

Chapter 117 NOX standards for small water heaters, boilers, and process heaters. The following table

summarizes the number of boilers by fuel type and county.

Table 2-24. Boilers by County and Fuel Type, 2016

County Total Natural Gas Propane Coal Fuel Oil Other41

Bastrop 126 95 7 0 0 24

Blanco 12 5 7 0 0 0

Burnet 58 36 16 0 0 6

Caldwell 37 35 0 0 0 2

Fayette 49 25 16 3 0 5

Hays 232 197 15 0 0 20

Lee 21 19 1 0 1 0

Llano 9 5 0 0 0 4

Travis 2,785 2,556 29 1 0 188

Williamson 573 498 15 0 0 54

TOTAL 3,902 3,471 106 4 1 303

CAPCOG analyzed the natural gas boiler data, removing records that did not have the heat input rating

listed (189 boilers) or were located at point sources (an additional 15 boilers). CAPCOG calculated

aggregate heat input rating of all of the boilers within the <75K Btu, 75K-400K Btu, 400K-2.0M Btu, and

2.0M-100M Btu ranges for the following ages:

39 HARC. Inventory of Boilers, Process Heaters, and Stationary Engines and Gas Turbines (including Duct burners) at minor sources of NOx. Project H057. February 15, 2006. http://projects.tercairquality.org/AQR/H057, accessed 6/10/2016. 40 http://www.tdlr.texas.gov/Boilerdata/BoilerSearch.asp, Accessed 6/8/2016. 41 “Other” includes electric (106), recovered heat (13), recovered heat/natural gas (6), natural gas/fuel oil (24), steam (2), natural gas/propane, (2), alcohol (2), steam (2), hydrogen (1) and “other” (3).

http://projects.tercairquality.org/AQR/H057

http://www.tdlr.texas.gov/Boilerdata/BoilerSearch.asp


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13+ years old:

o 2003 or earlier manufacture year in 2016;

o equivalent to 2001 or earlier manufacture year in 2014);

12 years old:

o 2004 manufacture year in 2016;

o equivalent to 2002 manufacture year in 2014);

11 and 10 years old:

o 2005 and 2006 manufacture year in 2016;

o equivalent to 2003 and 2004 manufacture year in 2014;

9 years old or newer:

o 2007 manufacture year or newer in 2016; and

o Equivalent to 2005 manufacture year or newer in 2014.

The following table shows the distribution of aggregate heat input into each of these categories for

2016.

Table 2-25. Aggregate Boiler Heat Input by Age and Heat Input Category (MMBtu/hr)

Age (yrs)

<=75K Btu/hr 75K-400K Btu/hr 400K-2M Btu/hr 2M-100M Btu/hr TOTAL

13 + 505,069 76,303,171 887,275,820 1,675,463,940 2,639,548,000

12 285,288 6,943,054 80,405,360 42,259,000 129,892,702

10 & 11 161,950 29,503,995 175,981,640 153,664,000 359,311,585

9 or less 516,728 201,307,352 1,102,700,812 1,014,006,300 2,318,531,192

TOTAL 1,469,035 314,057,572 2,246,363,632 2,885,393,240 5,447,283,479

The percentages of aggregate heat input in each heat input category are as follows:

<75K Btu/hr: 0.03%;

75K – 400K Btu/hr: 5.77%;

400K – 2.0 M Btu/hr: 41.24%; and

2.0M – 100M Btu/hr: 52.97%.

CAPCOG translated the ages into their equivalent in 2014 (2001 and earlier, 2002, 2003 – 2004, and

2005 and newer). Then, since the start date for many of the emissions standards was 7/1/2002, CAPCOG

split the aggregate input of the 12-year-old (2002 model year) boilers in half, creating the following age

groups:

<7/1/2002;

7/1/2002 – 12/31/2004; and

>=1/1/2005.


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The following table shows the estimated age distribution of each heat input category.

Table 2-26. Aggregate Boiler Heat Input by Age and Heat Input Category (%)

Manufacture Date

<=75K Btu/hr 75K-400K Btu/hr 400K-2M Btu/hr 2M-100M Btu/hr TOTAL

<7/1/02 44% 25% 41% 59% 50%

7/1/02 – 12/31/04

21% 10% 10% 6% 8%

>=1/1/05 35% 64% 49% 35% 43%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

CAPCOG then calculated a weighted emissions average NOX emissions rate of 85 lbs NOX/MMCF.

2.3.2.8 Emissions Totals

CAPCOG calculated the annual emissions totals using the adjusted NOX emissions rates, the existing

emissions rates for other pollutants, and updated activity levels. CAPCOG then used the updated OSD

temporal allocation factors. The table below summarizes the updated tpy and tpd emissions estimates.


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Table 2-27. 2014 Annual Area Source Commercial Combustion Activity and Emissions Estimates


CO (tpy)

CO2 (tpy)

N2O (tpy)

NH3 (tpy)

NOX (tpy)

PM10 (tpy)

PM2.5 (tpy)

SO2 (tpy)

VOC (tpy)

Bastrop 247 10.38 14,827.71 0.27 0.06 10.50 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.68

Blanco 37 1.54 2,203.91 0.04 0.01 1.56 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.10

Burnet 213 8.97 12,807.57 0.23 0.05 9.07 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.59

Caldwell 132 5.55 7,923.43 0.15 0.03 5.61 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.36

Fayette 134 5.63 8,037.07 0.15 0.03 5.69 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.37

Hays 987 41.45 59,210.51 1.09 0.24 41.94 0.26 0.21 0.30 2.71

Lee 75 3.14 4,487.60 0.08 0.02 3.18 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.21

Llano 52 2.20 3,137.21 0.06 0.01 2.22 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.14

Travis 7,376 309.80 442,572.63 8.11 1.81 313.49 1.92 1.59 2.21 20.28

Williamson 2,412 101.32 144,743.39 2.65 0.59 102.53 0.63 0.52 0.72 6.63

Total 11,666 489.97 699,951.04 12.83 2.86 495.80 3.03 2.51 3.50 32.08

Table 2-28. 2014 OSD Area Source Commercial Combustion Activity and Emissions Estimates


CO (tpd)

CO2 (tpd)

N2O (tpd)

NH3 (tpd)

NOX (tpd)

PM10 (tpd)

PM2.5 (tpd)

SO2 (tpd)

VOC (tpd)

Bastrop 0.5420 0.0228 32.5211 0.0006 0.0001 0.0230 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0015

Blanco 0.0806 0.0034 4.8338 0.0001 0.0000 0.0034 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002

Burnet 0.4682 0.0197 28.0904 0.0005 0.0001 0.0199 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0013

Caldwell 0.2896 0.0122 17.3782 0.0003 0.0001 0.0123 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0008

Fayette 0.2938 0.0123 17.6274 0.0003 0.0001 0.0125 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0008

Hays 2.1644 0.0909 129.8644 0.0024 0.0005 0.0920 0.0006 0.0005 0.0006 0.0060

Lee 0.1640 0.0069 9.8425 0.0002 0.0000 0.0070 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0005

Llano 0.1147 0.0048 6.8807 0.0001 0.0000 0.0049 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003

Travis 16.1780 0.6795 970.6794 0.0178 0.0040 0.6876 0.0042 0.0035 0.0049 0.0445

Williamson 5.2910 0.2222 317.4607 0.0058 0.0013 0.2249 0.0014 0.0011 0.0016 0.0146

Total 25.5863 1.0746 1,535.1786 0.0281 0.0063 1.0874 0.0067 0.0055 0.0077 0.0704


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The following table shows a comparison of the existing and updated estimates of annual and OSD NOX

emissions estimates.

Table 2-29. Comparison of Updated Annual Commercial Fuel Combustion NOX to Existing Estimates

County Existing (tpy) Updated (tpy) Difference (tpy) Difference (%)

Bastrop 11.86 10.50 -1.36 -11.44%

Blanco 1.41 1.56 0.15 10.72%

Burnet 9.39 9.07 -0.32 -3.39%

Caldwell 5.58 5.61 0.03 0.58%

Fayette 0 5.69 5.69 n/a

Hays 39.72 41.94 2.22 5.59%

Lee 3.09 3.18 0.09 2.87%

Llano 3.91 2.22 -1.69 -43.17%

Travis 322.39 313.49 -8.90 -2.76%

Williamson 103.23 102.53 -0.70 -0.68%

Total 500.58 495.80 -4.78 -0.96%

Table 2-30. Comparison of Updated Annual Commercial Fuel Combustion NOX to Existing Estimates

County Existing (tpd) Updated (tpd) Difference (tpd) Difference (%)

Bastrop 0.0380 0.0230 -0.0150 -39%

Blanco 0.0045 0.0034 -0.0011 -24%

Burnet 0.0301 0.0199 -0.0102 -34%

Caldwell 0.0179 0.0123 -0.0056 -31%

Fayette 0.0000 0.0125 0.0125 n/a

Hays 0.1273 0.0920 -0.0353 -28%

Lee 0.0099 0.0070 -0.0029 -29%

Llano 0.0125 0.0049 -0.0076 -61%

Travis 1.0333 0.6876 -0.3457 -33%

Williamson 0.3309 0.2249 -0.1060 -32%

Total 1.6044 1.0874 -0.5170 -32%

2.4 Descriptions of Electronic Files Submitted for QA CAPCOG submitted the following electronic files to ERG to QA:

emissions_tceq_2014_area_fuelcomb.xlsx: o TCEQ’s existing 2014 area source fuel combustion emissions estimates;

tceq_2014_areasource_reference.xlsx: o TCEQ’s reference spreadsheet for area source estimates;

fuelactivity_eia_tx_com_ng.xlsx: o EIA’s commercial fuel combustion totals for Texas;

fuelactivity_tracer_employment_2014_county_allocations.xlsx: o TWC state-level and county-level employment data at the 2-digit NAICS level and

allocation factors for each county;


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pointsubtractions_tceq_2014statesum.xlsx: o TCEQ’s 2014 summary of point source emissions, including each facility’s SIC code;

pointsource_3M_EIQ.pdf: o 2014 emissions inventory data for 3M;

pointsource_flinthillsaustin_EIQ.pdf: o 2014 emissions inventory data for Flint Hills Austin Terminal;

pointsource_flinthillsmustangridge_EIQ.pdf: o 2014 emissions inventory data for Flint Hills Mustang Ridge;

pointsource_halweaver_EIQ.pdf: o 2014 emissions inventory data for Hal Weaver Power Plant;

pointsource_sunsetfarms_EIQ.pdf: o 2014 emissions inventory data for Sunset Farms;

pointsubtractions_calculations.xlsx o Calculation of 3M and Hal Weaver Power Plant point source activity subtractions;

emissionsrates_boilerdata.xlsx: o includes boiler data records and calculations for adjustments to the NOX emissions rate.

emissions_capcog_updated.xlsx: o includes updated annual and ozone season day activity and emissions estimates for CO,

CO2, N2O, NH3, NOX, PM10, PM2.5, SO2, and VOC.

ERG’s QA reports are included in the appendices to this report.


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Appendix A: ERG QA Memo on Updates to I/M and Fuel County Databases ERG’s QA report on the updates to the I/M and fuel CDBs described in sections 2.1 and 2.2 of this report

is available at the following link:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/nl3jtql58s6w41d/Deliverable_2.1.3a_2014_NEI_Report_Appendix

A_QA_Report_On-Road_Updates.docx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/nl3jtql58s6w41d/Deliverable_2.1.3a_2014_NEI_Report_AppendixA_QA_Report_On-Road_Updates.docx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/nl3jtql58s6w41d/Deliverable_2.1.3a_2014_NEI_Report_AppendixA_QA_Report_On-Road_Updates.docx?dl=0


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Appendix B: ERG QA Memo on Updates to Commercial Natural Gas Combustion Area Source Emissions Inventory

ERG’s QA report on the updates to the commercial fuel combustion inventory described in section 2.3 is

available at the following link:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ue8arsywj6tt7af/Deliverable_2.1.3a_2014_NEI_Report_Appendix

B_QA_Report_Commerical_Fuel_Combustion.docx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ue8arsywj6tt7af/Deliverable_2.1.3a_2014_NEI_Report_AppendixB_QA_Report_Commerical_Fuel_Combustion.docx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ue8arsywj6tt7af/Deliverable_2.1.3a_2014_NEI_Report_AppendixB_QA_Report_Commerical_Fuel_Combustion.docx?dl=0


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Appendix C: CAPCOG QA Report for Review of 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1

CAPCOG’s QA log for the analysis performed in section 1 is available at the following link:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ztlnbkl3jufqyi9/CAepuz%20QA%20Check%20of%20Deliverable%202.1.3-

%202014%20NEI%20report.docx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ztlnbkl3jufqyi9/CAepuz%20QA%20Check%20of%20Deliverable%202.1.3-%202014%20NEI%20report.docx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ztlnbkl3jufqyi9/CAepuz%20QA%20Check%20of%20Deliverable%202.1.3-%202014%20NEI%20report.docx?dl=0


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Appendix D: Electronic Files Submitted CAPCOG submitted the following electronic files to TCEQ as part of the emissions inventory analysis

described in section 1 of this report:

2014nei_all.xlsx: https://www.dropbox.com/s/3lhcd4qhc0kjz3k/2014nei_all.xlsx?dl=0

2014nei_area.xlsx: https://www.dropbox.com/s/fcvovyqgbhcxegi/2014nei_area.xlsx?dl=0

2014nei_biogenic.xlsx:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/1qonrhptz1ta715/2014nei_biogenic.xlsx?dl=0

2014nei_fire.xlsx: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ak95y7ca2ny1y4t/2014nei_fire.xlsx?dl=0

2014nei_non-road.xlsx: https://www.dropbox.com/s/00qyrjhu7c0iktj/2014nei_non-

road.xlsx?dl=0

2014nei_on-road.xlsx: https://www.dropbox.com/s/x1ktpt0em5hwqpr/2014nei_on-

road.xlsx?dl=0

2014nei_point.xlsx: https://www.dropbox.com/s/tdr7wi9c2ii44q5/2014nei_point.xlsx?dl=0

CAPCOG submitted the following electronic files to TCEQ as part of the updates described in Section 2 of

this report:

Updates to the I/M County Databases for the On-Road Emissions Inventory

o Deliverable_2.1.3b_IM_Factor_CDBs.zip:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/nfadqs6me453lwc/Deliverable_2.1.3b_IM_Factor_CDBs.zi

p?dl=0

Updates to the Fuel County Databases for the On-Road Emissions Inventory

o Deliverable_2.1.3c_Fuel_CDBs_CAPCOG.zip

:https://www.dropbox.com/s/nkn8cntibwpz8rs/Deliverable_2.1.3c_Fuel_CDBs_CAPCOG.

zip?dl=0

o Deliverable_2.1.3d_CDBs_Other_Counties.zip (available via DropBox – note: contains

ALL CDBs for these counties, but the only ones updated by CAPCOG and ERG are the

fuelformulation CDBs:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/qo934w5mlw033ue/Deliverable_2.1.3d_CDBs_217_Other_

Counties.zip?dl=0

Updates to the Commercial Fuel Combustion Estimates for the Area Source Emissions Inventory

o Deliverable_2.1.3e_commercial_combustion_update.xml:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ngajb8j2ul146e/Deliverable_2.1.3e_commercial_combus

tion_update.xml?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/3lhcd4qhc0kjz3k/2014nei_all.xlsx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/fcvovyqgbhcxegi/2014nei_area.xlsx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/1qonrhptz1ta715/2014nei_biogenic.xlsx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ak95y7ca2ny1y4t/2014nei_fire.xlsx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/00qyrjhu7c0iktj/2014nei_non-road.xlsx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/00qyrjhu7c0iktj/2014nei_non-road.xlsx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/x1ktpt0em5hwqpr/2014nei_on-road.xlsx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/x1ktpt0em5hwqpr/2014nei_on-road.xlsx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/tdr7wi9c2ii44q5/2014nei_point.xlsx?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/nfadqs6me453lwc/Deliverable_2.1.3b_IM_Factor_CDBs.zip?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/nfadqs6me453lwc/Deliverable_2.1.3b_IM_Factor_CDBs.zip?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/nkn8cntibwpz8rs/Deliverable_2.1.3c_Fuel_CDBs_CAPCOG.zip?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/nkn8cntibwpz8rs/Deliverable_2.1.3c_Fuel_CDBs_CAPCOG.zip?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/qo934w5mlw033ue/Deliverable_2.1.3d_CDBs_217_Other_Counties.zip?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/qo934w5mlw033ue/Deliverable_2.1.3d_CDBs_217_Other_Counties.zip?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ngajb8j2ul146e/Deliverable_2.1.3e_commercial_combustion_update.xml?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ngajb8j2ul146e/Deliverable_2.1.3e_commercial_combustion_update.xml?dl=0


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Appendix E: Emission Pie Charts by Pollutant

Figure E-1. 2014 CAPCOG CO Emissions by Source Type (tpy)

Figure E-2. 2014 CAPCOG NH3 Emissions by Source Type (tpy)

30,854

8,311

10,611

14,034

102,325

43,124

Biogenic

Fires

Point

Area

On-Road

Non-Road

0138

287

8,122

575

14

Biogenic

Fires

Point

Area

On-Road

Non-Road


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Figure E-3. 2014 CAPCOG NOX Emissions by Source Type (tpy)

Figure E-4. 2014 CAPCOG Pb Emissions by Source Type (tpy)

3,276

194

11,000

4,128

20,829

10,281Biogenic

Fires

Point

Area

On-Road

Non-Road

0.000.00

0.52

0.01

0.00

0.86

Biogenic

Fires

Point

Area

On-Road

Non-Road


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Figure E-5. 2014 CAPCOG PM2.5 Emissions by Source Type (tpy)

Figure E-6. 2014 CAPCOG PM10 Emissions by Source Type (tpy)

0777

1,141

19,056

680

787

Biogenic

Fires

Point

Area

On-Road

Non-Road

0917 1,831

156,902

1,399823

Biogenic

Fires

Point

Area

On-Road

Non-Road


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Figure E-7. 2014 CAPCOG SO2 Emissions by Source Type (tpy)

Figure E-8. 2014 CAPCOG VOC Emissions by Source Type (tpy)

087

2,920

789

169

94

Biogenic

Fires

Point

Area

On-Road

Non-Road

189,923

1,983

1,10430,356

8,579

5,305

Biogenic

Fires

Point

Area

On-Road

Non-Road


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Appendix F: References for 2014 Emissions Inventory Analysis 40 CFR, Part 51, Subpart A: Air Emissions Reporting Requirements: http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-

idx?SID=edd3bced7e9d743d50810da28cd9cbbb&mc=true&node=sp40.2.51.a&rgn=div6

EPA Files EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, point source emissions full detail data file.


EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, on-road source emissions full detail data file.


EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, non-road source emissions full detail data file.

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_nonroad_byregions.zip. Accessed 9/26/2016.

EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, non-point source emissions full detail data file.


EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1, prescribed/wildfires county-level by SCC summary.

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_eventfire_countyscc.zip. Accessed 9/28/2016.

EPA. 2014 National Emissions Inventory version 1 tier 3 county summary.

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/tier_summaries/tier3_summary_county_2014neiv1.zip. Accessed

9/26/2016.

TCEQ Files

TCEQ. 2014 CAPCOG Airport EI_2_22_16.xlsx. E-mail from Matthew Southard to Andrew Hoekzema,

2/22/2016.

TCEQ. 2014 CAPCOG Area Source Reference Spreadsheet.xlsx. E-mail from Matthew Southard to

Andrew Hoekzema, 2/19/2016.

TCEQ. 2014 Non-road Mobile EI for CAPCOG counties.xlsx. E-mail from Matthew Southard to Andrew

Hoekzema, 2/19/2016.

TCEQ. 2014 2014 CAPCOG Counties Area Source Fuel Combustion_2-19-2016.xlsx. E-mail from Matthew

Southard to Andrew Hoekzema, 2/19/2016.

TCEQ. 2014 2014 CAPCOG County Oil Gas EI.xlsx. E-mail from Matthew Southard to Andrew Hoekzema,

2/19/2016.

TCEQ. CAPCOG County 2014 Area Source.xlsx. E-mail from Matthew Southard to Andrew Hoekzema,

2/11/2016.

TCEQ. Annual.zip. E-mail from Daniel Perry to Andrew Hoekzema, 12/11/2015.

http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=edd3bced7e9d743d50810da28cd9cbbb&mc=true&node=sp40.2.51.a&rgn=div6

http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=edd3bced7e9d743d50810da28cd9cbbb&mc=true&node=sp40.2.51.a&rgn=div6





ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/2014neiv1_eventfire_countyscc.zip

ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2014/tier_summaries/tier3_summary_county_2014neiv1.zip


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TCEQ. 2014statesum.xlsx. Available online at

https://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/ie/pseisums/2014statesum.xlsx.

*CAPCOG downloaded emissions inventory questionnaires for point sources in the CAPCOG region from

TCEQ’s website on February 25, 2016. Data were queried at the following URL:

http://www15.tceq.texas.gov/crpub/.

https://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/ie/pseisums/2014statesum.xlsx

http://www15.tceq.texas.gov/crpub/

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