Report on Resilience and Vulnerability in South SudanOctober 2019

Report on Resilience and

Vulnerability in South Sudan

October 2019

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS iii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

INTRODUCTION 4

1.1 Purpose of the report 31.2 Background 31.3 Chronology of events 4

RESILIENCE DEFINITIONS AND FRAMEWORK 5

2.1 Definitionsofresilience 62.2 Programmaticframeworkforresilience 72.3 Theoryofchangeonresilience 82.4 TheYambiocasestudy 92.4.1 PartnershipforRecoveryandResilienceinYambio 92.4.2 Operationalizingtherecoveryandresilienceagenda 92.4.3 What has changed? 10

RESILIENCE CONTEXT 11

3.1 Amacroviewofshocksandstressors 113.1.1 Governanceandconflict 113.1.2 Inflation 113.1.3 EconomicPerformance(growthandtrade) 123.1.4 Poverty 133.1.5 Foodinsecurity 143.1.6 Migration 153.1.7 Localgovernanceandinstitutions 17

RESILIENCE PROFILE – REBUILD TRUST IN PEOPLE AND INSTITUTION 19

3.1.8 Essentialservices 203.1.9 Education 203.1.10 Health 213.1.11 Water 213.1.12 ProductiveCapacitiesandOpportunities 23

RESILIENCE PROFILE – RESTORE PRODUCTION CAPACITIES Learning new tricks 26

MEASURING RESILIENCE 27

4.1 Measuringresilience 274.2 Measuringthecurrentstateofresilience 294.2.1 National-levelresilience 29

4.2.2 Partnershiparearesilience 304.2.3 Driversofresilienceinpartnershipareas 314.3 Driversofchangesinresilience 334.3.1 ThecaseoftheFAOSAFERproject 334.3.2 ThecaseoftheDFATDandDANIDA-fundedFAOprojects 354.3.3 Unpackingresilienceandfoodsecurity 374.4 Genderandresilience 404.4.1 Limitedaccesstoproductiveassets,resourcesandservices 404.4.2 Women’slimitedparticipationinproductiveeconomicactivities 41

RESILIENCE PROFILE – RESTORE PRODUCTION CAPACITIES Women’s economic empowerment in Bor 42Stitching a future together 42

4.4.3 Women’sexclusionfromleadershipanddecision-makingprocesses 434.4.4 Recurringinstancesofgender-basedviolence 434.4.5 Limitedaccesstosexualandreproductivehealth 444.4.6 RecommendationsforstrengtheningWomen’sResilienceandRecovery 44

VULNERABILITY 46

5.1 Vulnerabilitydefinitionsandframework 465.2 Vulnerabilitytrends 475.2.1 Environmentalrisk,rainfallanddrought 475.2.2 ProductionandFoodGaps 49

RESILIENCE PROFILE – RESTORE PRODUCTION CAPACITIES Planting seeds of the future 54

5.2.3 FoodConsumption 56

5.2.4 Externaldisplacement 575.2.5 Markets and terms of trade 575.3 Statusofvulnerability–TheIntegratedFoodSecurityPhaseClassification 59

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ABS AccesstoBasicServicesAC AdaptiveCapacityAST AssetACLED ArmedConflictLocationandEventDataProjectAGRA AllianceforaGreenRevolutioninAfricaBRACED BuildingResilienceandAdaptationtoClimateExtremesandDisastersCFSAM CropandFoodSecurityAssessmentMission CGIAR ConsultativeGrouponInternationalAgriculturalResearch CoBRA Community-Based Resilience AnalysisDFID DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment,Governmentofthe UnitedKingdomandNorthernIrelandFAO FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsFBO Faith-BasedOrganizationsFCS FoodConsumptionScoreFSNMS FoodSecurityandNutritionMonitoringSystemGBV Gender-basedViolenceGDP GrossDomesticProductionIOM InternationalOrganizationforMigrationIPC IntegratedFoodSecurityPhaseClassificationIPCC IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIFPRI InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstituteJWP JointWorkPlanningMSI ManagementSystemsInternationalNGO Non-GovernmentalOrganizationPfRR PartnershipforRecoveryandResiliencePoC ProtectionofCivilianRAMMU ResilienceAnalysisMeasurementandMonitoringUnit RCI ResilienceCapacityIndexRIMA ResilienceIndexMeasurementandAnalysis SAFER SustainableAgricultureforEconomicResiliencySHARP Self-evaluationandHolisticAssessmentofClimateResilience ofFarmersandPastoralistsSSN SocialSafetyNetTANGO TechnicalAssistancetoNGOsTLU TropicalLivestockUnitsUN UnitedNationsUNDP UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgrammeUNDRR UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReductionUNICEF UnitedNationsChildren’sFundUSAID UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment,Governmentof theUnitedStatesofAmerica VSLA VillageSavingsandLoansAssociation WFP World Food Programme

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ThepresentreportisintendedtoprovideanupdateonthestatusofresilienceandvulnerabilityintheRepublicofSouthSudanfortheyear2018andtomid2019–atimewhensignificantstrategicpivotstookplaceinthecoun-try,placingfocusonresilience.InSouthSudanresilienceisdefinedastheabilityofindividuals,communities,andhouseholdstoanticipate,adaptto,and/orrecoverfromtheeffectsofpotentiallyhazardousoccurrences(naturaldisasters,economicinstability,conflict,andothersocialshocks)inamannerthatprotectslivelihoods,acceleratesandsustainsrecovery,andsupportseconomicandsocialdevelopment.Thereportreviewstrendsandchangesthathaveoccurredandexaminesthelinkagesandcausalitybetweenresilienceandvulnerability.Thereportbuildsuponevidencefromthenational,subnational,communityandhouseholdlevels.

Thereportdrawsfromseveraluniquedatasetsandanalytical tools includingdatacollected in2018, forresilienceprofiles,resilienceanalysesandmodelingdoneforthefirsttimetomeasureresilience,andnewanalysesofFoodSecurityandNutritionMonitoringSystem(FSNMS)andtheIntegratedFoodSecurityPhaseClassification(IPC)analysisin order to examine vulnerability. Overall, the findings suggest that resilience in South Sudan is fundamentallyconfrontedwithacomplexsocio-environmentalnexus,whichconnectssocial,environmental,political,governance,andeconomicconditions.Indeed,SouthSudanremainsahighlyfragilestateduetocontinuingconflictandacrisisingovernance.Traditionalconflictprevention,mediationandresolutionstructureshavebeenweakened,whichhaseroded theability of institutions towithstandpolitical and security shocks.Weak ruleof law translates into totalimpunityofperpetratorsofviolence,andfuelsvigilantismandgrosshumanrightsviolations.Atbothmacroandmicrolevels,conflicthashadamajornegativeimpactontheenablingenvironmentfordevelopmentandresiliencebuilding.

Withrespecttothemacroeconomicsituation,thecurrencydevaluationinDecember2015hasledtohighinflationandworseningexchangerateoftheSouthSudanesepoundtotheUSdollar.InflationinSouthSudanaveraged89percentfrom2008to2018,withanall-timehighof549percentinSeptember2016.Asthesituationcontinuestodeteriorate,thedepthofpovertyhasincreasedwith66percentofthepopulation(twooutofthreepersons)inSouthSudanlivingbelowthepovertyline.

Household surveys and focus groupdiscussions conducted in 2018 to inform thePartnership for Recovery andResilienceeffortsconfirmthatfoodinsecurity isarealandubiquitousrisk inSouthSudan,entangled inwarfare,conflictandclimatevariabilities.MosthouseholdsinthesevenPartnershipAreasexperiencedlackoffoodovera12-monthperiod.Civilwarandconflictarethemaindriversoffoodinsecurityinmostcounties,followedbyclimateshocks likedrought.Torit,Bor,RumbekandAweilexperiencedthe largest impactsfromdroughts;Torit,BorandAweil alsoexperiencedsignificantflooding.

Due to conflict and other crises, South Sudan experiences forcedmigration which results in a high number ofinternallydisplacedpeople(IDPs).Overall,atotalof1,275,868IDPswereidentifiedacrossthecountryinNovember-December2018,withone-fifth(20percent)havingarrivedintheirpresentlocationin2018alone,and70percentin2017and2018combined.

Nationwide,theaverageResilienceCapacityIndex(RCI)fromallthesurveyedhouseholdsisestimatedat29.3.TheRCIhadregionalvariationbyStatewithWarraphavingthehighestRCIof37.9andCentralEquatoria,thelowestRCIof21.0.Overall,assetsheldbyindividualsandhouseholdsisthemaindriverofresilienceacrossallstates.Productiveassetsincludingagriculturaltools,seedsforplanting,wheelbarrowsandgraingrindingtoolsaswellasthesizeoflandforcultivationownedbythehouseholdplayasignificantroleincontributingtoresilience.

Among thepartnershipareas,Bor (includingNorth,East, SouthandCentre)has thehighestRCI,whileWauhadthe lowest.Thecitizens inWauhave lowaccesstoSocialSafetyNets (SSNs),suchasborrowingandformalcashtransfers.Thismaybeattributedtosustainedinsecurity,limitedmovementandhumanitarianaccesssince2016withextremedepletionoflivelihoods.SincetheJuly2016crisis,mostareasofWauCountywerenotaccessibleuntillateDecember2017,resultinginlimitedaccesstohumanitarianassistance.However,therearepartsofWauCountythatarerelativelycalmandaccessible,enablinghumanitarianactorstooperate.

Evidenceofgenderunbalancewithrespecttoresiliencewasalsofound;indeed,female-headedhouseholdstendtoexperiencelowerdegreeofresiliencecomparedtotheirmalecounterparts.Asexpected,anincreaseinconflictprevalencehasthepotentialtosignificantlyreduceresilience.Severalrespondentscomplainedhowconflicthasledtoschoolsclosing,raisingcostsanddepletedremotecommunitiesofqualityteachers,andparentsofincomestopayschoolfees.Inaddition,orphanedchildren,afterconflicts,oftencannolongeraffordschoolfees.

2

Oftenoverlooked in resiliencebuildingprograms, governance is amajordriverof community level resilienceasimproved community governance is associated with higher resilience capacity. The seven PfRR PartnershipAreasgenerallyhaveapoorviewofgovernmentservices;householdscomplainedaboutpoor jobcreation,poortransportation infrastructureandlackofequityandpoverty.Findings indicatethatthe impactof institutionsandlocal leadershiponhouseholds is not the sameacross the sevenpartnership areas.

Paramountchiefsandothertraditionalchiefs,aswellaslocalgovernment,playthelargestleadershiprole,thoughtheirinfluencevariesacrosstheareas.NGOsandFaith-basedOrganizations(FBOs)alsoplayamodestroleinsomecommunities.Inmostcommunities,traditionalleaderscontinuetoplayasignificantrole.Mostsurveyedhouseholdsinthreeofthesevencountiesindicatedthattraditionalleadersplayalargerrolethanpoliticalleaders;anegligibleproportionbelievedpoliticalleadershadmoreinfluence.Traditionalleadersseemtocarrymoreimportanceinthecountiesthatpredominantlyelectthem.

Asexpected,resiliencehasapositiveeffectonfoodsecurity(vulnerability),asmeasuredbythepredictedHouseholdDietaryDiversityScore(HDDS).Overall,theproportionofpeoplefacingseverefoodinsecurity(Phase3orworse)inSouthSudanhasincreasedfrom19percentinSeptember2014to58percentinSeptember2018,to54percentinmid2019.Theabsolutenumberoffoodinsecurepeoplepeakedin2017and2018.Householdsofmostconcernincludethosewithnoland,nolivestock,female-headedandIDP/returnees.

AmongthePartnershipAreas,theareaswithhighestresiliencecapacity(likeBorSouth,Torit,andAweilNorth)arerelativelymore food insecureandhave improvedaccess tohumanitarianresources.Recently,YeiandWauhaveregisteredhighfoodinsecuritywithverylowresiliencecapacity,indicatinganescalatedconflictsituationwithlimitedmovementandhumanitarianaccess.

Giventhecomplexnatureofthecrisisfacingthecountry, itrequiresabroadcoalitionofsupporttoaddressnotonly the urgent humanitarian crisis but also to help restore production systems and assist communities cope,recover,andbuild their resilience toshocksandcrises. It is in thatcontext thataPartnership forResilienceandRecoverywasput togetherwhichplacescommunity institutionsat thecenterofefforts tobuild theresilienceoflivelihoods and production systems in the country. The proposed partnership is aimed at producing businessmodels (interventions) for integrated humanitarian and development services through community-baseddelivery mechanisms that emphasize the productive sector as the foundation for resilience and recovery intarget locations. The Partnership promotes and uses an integrated programme framework for resilience,adapted to the South Sudan which comprises four pillars: i) Re-establish Access to Basic Services, ii) RebuildTrust in People and Institutions, iii) Restore Productive Capacities, and iv) Nurture Effective Partnerships.

3

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Purpose of the reportThepurposeofthisreportistoprovideanupdateonthestatusofresilienceandvulnerabilityintheRepublicofSouthSudanfortheyear2018–atimewhensignificantstrategicpivotstookplaceinthecountry,placingfocusonresilience.Italsoreviewstrendsandchangesthathaveoccurredandexaminesthelinkagesandcausalitybetweenresilienceandvulnerability.Thereportbuildsuponevidencefromthenational,subnational,communityandhouseholdlevels.

Thisreportprovidesbackground,definitions,analysisandevidenceon:

i. Thestatusofresilienceandvulnerabilityin2018.

i. Thedriversofresilienceandvulnerability,andtheirtrends.

ii. Changesinsystemsandtoolstosupportresilienceprogramming.

iii. Progressachievedin2018insecuringcommitmenttoresilienceandrecovery.

Thereportdrawsondatacollectedin2018,forresilienceprofiles,resilienceanalysesandmodelingdoneforthefirsttimetomeasureresilience,andnewanalysesofFoodSecurityandNutritionMonitoringSystem(FSNMS)andtheIntegratedFoodSecurityPhaseClassification(IPC)datainordertoexaminevulnerability.Thisinformationwillultimatelycontributetoplanning,programming,aswellasmutualaccountabilityamongpartnersworkingtoreducevulnerabilityandincreaseresilienceinSouthSudan.

1.2 Background In 2017, a growing concernabout theeroding coping capacityofpeople, communities and institutions in SouthSudanleddevelopmentpartnerstopauseandreflectontheireffortsandgrowingvulnerability.InOctober2017,aconsultationamongdonors,Non-governmentalOrganizations (NGOs)andUnitedNations (UN)agenciesnotedthat in spite of billionsof dollars of food andother humanitarian anddevelopment assistance, food security inSouthSudansteadilyincreasedovertheperiod2015–2017.And,whileconflictandeconomiccollapsehavelargelydriventhecountry’sdramaticincreaseinfoodinsecurity,healthrisks,exposuretoheightenedclimatevariabilities,lackofaccessto informationandservicesandnegativesocialnormsarecontributingsignificantlytotheerosionof household and community resilience andassociated vulnerability tohunger,withwomenand childrenbeingdisproportionatelyaffected.Recognizingindividualdonororsectoraleffortswerenotchangingthesituation,itwasconcluded thatdevelopmentpartnersmustfindanewwayofworking–onewhichmovesbeyondcoordinationtowardsstrategic integrationandconvergence,and leveragingon resilienceasoneof thebuildingblocksof thehumanitarian-development-peace nexus. A call was therefore issued to direct development and humanitarianassistance towards protecting and building resilience of people, communities and institutions, and increasingattention to tackle thedriversofvulnerability.

Theyear2018beganwithelevatedattentiontoresilienceasaprimaryobjectivefordevelopmentandhumanitarianefforts.TheyearendedwithsubstantialprogressmadeinlayingthefoundationforadvancingintegratedeffortstobuildresilienceinSouthSudan.TheprospectforrenewedpeacethroughtheRevitalizedPeaceAgreementsignedinSeptember2018,givesreasonforcautiousoptimismthatrealchangeandmeaningfulprogresscanbemadeinimprovingthelivesandlivelihoodsofSouthSudanesepeople,communitiesandinstitutions.Goingforward,afirststeptoreducingvulnerabilityandsustainablerecoverywillbebuildingtheresilienceofpeopletoabsorbshocks,adapt toshocks in theexistingcontext,andtransformtheircommunities tobesociallycohesive.Thisreportwillhopefullycontributetothis.

This report has been produced through a joint effort between the World Food Program (WFP), the Food andAgricultureOrganization(FAO),theUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP),theInternationalFoodPolicyResearch Institute (IFPRI) and theUnitedNations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).

4

1.3 Chronology of events

Rootedinconcernforgrowingvulnerability,consultations,analysisandplanningforresiliencewasbroughtintofocusinOctober2017,ataworkshopheldinJuba,sponsoredbydevelopmentpartners,includingdonors,UNagenciesandNGOs–bothinternationalandlocal.Fortunately,theseinitialconversationshadalottobuildonfromongoingresilienceworkinSouthSudanofNGOsandUNentities.

Figure 1: Chronology of Major Resilience Events (Oct 2017 – Dec 2018)

Assuch,amoreorganizeddialogueonresiliencebegan.Buildingonthismomentum,andwithstrongconcernforvalueformoney(the“biggestbangforyourbuck”),inApril2018,partnerscommittedtofocusonresilienceinterventionsthatcouldhavethelargestimpactontheresourcesavailable.And,thisgavebirthtothePartnershipforRecoveryandResilience(PfRR).Afterthe“SharedCommitment”toreducevulnerabilityandbuildresilience,partnersagreedtoimplementgeographically-focusedresilienceprogrammesinpartnershipareaswherelocalleadersarecommittedtocreating theconditions forchangerequiredtobuildresilience. In turn,aroadmapforPfRRengagementwasdevelopedinMay2018,withYambio,WesternEquatoriaasastartingpoint.

ThePfRRthenidentifiedsevenpartnershipareasbyJune2018.Thiswasfollowedbytheformulationofresilienceprofiles for theseareas in JulyandAugust2018, toprovideevidencespecific to thepartnershipareacontext sothatacommonunderstandingofrisks,prioritiesandprogrammesperpartnershipareawasformed.Alongsidethisdevelopment,fourUNagencies(FAO,UNDP,UNICEFandWFP)agreedtoformaResilienceAnalysisMeasurementandMonitoringUnit(RAMMU)inJuly2018,withtheintentofestablishingaunifiedresiliencemeasurementandtoincreaseaccountability.BySeptember2018,aPfRRCoordinationPlatformwasestablishedtofacilitatecoordinationandcollaborationamongallstakeholdersofconcern.Lastbutnotleast, inNovember2018,aneventwashostedbyPfRRtoadvanceaccountabilityandlearningamongallpartners, includinginternationalandcommunity-basedorganizationsandprivatesectorrepresentatives.ThisfinallysetinplaceanintegratedapproachandprogrammaticframeworktobuildingresilienceinSouthSudan.

5

RESILIENCE DEFINITIONS AND FRAMEWORK

2.1 Definitions of resilience

Mostdefinitionsconceiveresiliencetobeacurrentorfuturecushioncapacityforthepreservationortransformationofnormality(‘new’or‘oldnormal’)afterundergoingsignificantfluctuations.OtherslikeCarpenteretal.(2005)conceiveresilienceasnotareturntonormality,butrathertheabilityofcomplexsocio-ecologicalsystemstoanticipate,change,adaptandcruciallytransforminresponsetostressesandstrains.

Whilethereisnostandardhumanitariandefinitionforresilience,mosttendtoagreewiththenotionthatresilienceisappliedwhensystemsareconfrontedwithdisturbanceandstress. Still, there isneed toconsidermultipleorrepetitiveeventsanddrawn-outconflicts,whereuncertaintyandriskarepervasiveinordertobroadenthescopeofresiliencetoincluderolesofinstitutions,leadership(governance),socialcapitalandsociallearning.Aspartofongoinginitiativestosecureconsensusonacommonanalyticalframeworkandguidelinesforresiliencemeasurement,andtopromoteadoptionofagreedprinciplesandbestpracticesaResilienceMeasurementTechnicalWorkingGroup(TWG)comprisingofleadingexpertsinresiliencemeasurementdrawnfromuniversities,TANGOinternational,IFAD,UNICEF,FAO,theWorldBank,USAID,MercyCorps,ILRI,WFPandIGADwasestablished,undertheFoodSecurityInformationNetwork(FSIN)1.Theirmainexpectedtasksaretodevelopresilience-relateddiagnosticandM&Etechnicalmaterialsandsupportrelevantregionalandcountry-levelinitiativesaswellasfieldpractitioners.ThedefinitionofresilienceadoptedbytheResilienceMeasurementTechnicalWorkingGroup(RM-TWG,2016)is:“Resilienceisthecapacitythatensuresadversestressorsandshocksdonothavelong-lastingadversedevelopmentconsequences.”Thedefinitionsupports the conceptual framework supportedby theRMTWG (RM-TWG2014)whereby resilience capacitiesarebrokendownintothreedimensions:

1. Absorptivecapacity:Theabilitytominimizeexposuretoshocksandstresses(exante)wherepossibleandtorecoverquicklywhenexposed(expost);

2. Adaptivecapacity:Theabilitytomakeproactiveandinformedchoicesaboutalternativelivelihoodstrategiesbasedonchangingconditions;and

3. Transformative capacity: System-level enabling conditions for lasting resilience, such as governancemechanisms,policies/regulations,infrastructure,communitynetworks,andformalsafetynetsthatarepartofthewidersysteminwhichhouseholdsandcommunitiesareembedded(Frankenbergeretal.2013;Bénéetal.2016).

Giventhecomplexity,multidimensionality,locationdependentandhuman-centricnatureofresilience,itisdifficulttohaveoneuniversallyagreedupondefinitionofresilience.However,mostresearcherstendtoagreethatresilienceis a capacity thatensuresaunit thrives in the faceof stressorsandshocks. Inotherwords, it is a capacity thatcontributesaunit’sabilitytoabsorb,adaptortransformwhenfacedwithashock.

Thisbroaddefinitionisconsistentwiththebelowvarietyofdefinitionsfromdifferentagenciesandplayerswhicharealllinkedorpinnedtothesethreecapacities.

1 TheFoodSecurityInformationNetwork(FSIN)isaglobalinitiativeco-sponsoredbyFAO,WFPandIFPRItostrengthenfoodandnutritionsecurityinformationsystemsforproducingreliableandaccuratedatatoguideanalysisanddecision-making. Seemoreathttp://www.fsincop.net/home/en/.

6

Resilience definitions

• Resilience isan inherentaswellasacquiredconditionachievedbymanagingrisksover timeat individual,household,communityandsocietallevelsinwaysthatminimizecosts,buildcapacitytomanageandsustaindevelopmentmomentum,andmaximize transformativepotential (UNDP).

• Resilience is the capacity that ensures adverse stressors and shocks do not have long-lasting adversedevelopment consequences (Resilience Measurement Technical Working Group).

• Theabilitytopreventdisastersandcrisesaswellastoanticipate,absorb,accommodateorrecoverfromthemina timely,efficientandsustainablemanner.This includesprotecting, restoringand improving livelihoodssystemsinthefaceofthreatsthatimpactagriculture,nutrition,foodsecurityandfoodsafety(FAO).

• Resiliencedescribestheabilitytoanticipate,withstandandbouncebackfromexternalpressuresandshocks–whetherphysical,emotional,economic,ordisasterorconflictrelated–inwaysthatavoidafundamentallossofidentityandmaintaincorefunctions(UNICEF).

• Resilienceistheabilityofasystem,communityorsocietyexposedtohazardstoresist,absorbaccommodatetoandrecoverfromtheeffectsofahazardinatimelyandefficientmanner(UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction[UNDRR]).

• Resiliencereferstotheabilityofcommunitiesandhouseholdstoendurestressesandshocks.Communitiesandhouseholdsareresilientwhentheyareabletomeettheirbasicneedsinasustainablewayandwithoutrelianceonexternalassistance(UnitedNationsOfficefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAssistance).

• DisasterResilienceistheabilityofcountries,communitiesandhouseholdstomanagechange,bymaintainingortransforminglivingstandardsinthefaceofshocksorstresses—suchasearthquakes,droughtorviolentconflict—withoutcompromisingtheirlong-termprospects(DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment[DFID],GovernmentoftheUnitedKingdomandNorthernIreland).

• Resilienceistheabilityofindividuals,communities,organizations,orcountriesexposedtodisastersandcrisesandunderlyingvulnerabilitiestoanticipate,reducetheimpactof,copewith,andrecoverfromtheeffectsofadversitywithoutcompromising their long-termprospects (InternationalFederationofRedCrossandRedCrescent).

• Resilience ismostoftendefinedas theabilityof individuals,communitiesandstatesandtheir institutionstoabsorbandrecoverfromshocks,whilstpositivelyadaptingandtransformingtheirstructuresandmeansfor living in the face of long-term changes and uncertainty (Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment).

• Resilience to recurrent crisis is the ability of people, households, communities, countries, and systems tomitigate,adapttoandrecoverfromshocksandstressesinamannerthatreduceschronicvulnerabilityandfacilitatesinclusivegrowth(UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment[USAID],GovernmentoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica).

Inabroadersense,developmentresilienceisthecapacityovertimeofaperson,householdorlocationtoavoidbadstate(poverty,foodinsecurity,etc.)inthepresenceofvariousstressorsandmultipleshocks(ConstasandBarrett,2013).Itfollowshumanitarianresilience,whichaimstoremovehouseholdsfromhumanitarianemergencystates,whichcanbenestedwithindevelopmentresilience.Hence,aspointedoutbyConstasandBarrett(2013),theconceptofresiliencecanbeusedtobridgehumanitarianandreliefwithlonger-termdevelopmentgoals.

AworkingdefinitionthatcanbeappliedtotheSouthSudancontextis:Theabilityofcountries,communities,andhouseholdstoanticipate,adaptto,and/orrecoverfromtheeffectsofpotentiallyhazardousoccurrences(naturaldisasters,economicinstability,conflict)inamannerthatprotectslivelihoods,acceleratesandsustainsrecovery,andsupportseconomicandsocialdevelopment.

7

2.2 Programmatic framework for resilienceResilienceinSouthSudanisfundamentallyconfrontedwithacomplexsocio-environmentalnexus,whichconnectssocial, environmental, political, governance, and economic conditions. Tackling this warrants interdisciplinarydialogueandcollaborationbecausebuildingresiliencecannotbeachievedthroughisolatingconditions,orbyoneagencyon itsown.Rather, itwillbefacilitatedthroughanunderstandingof thecomplexand intertwined issues,whichcontributetotheemergencyorchroniccrisistogetherwiththeopportunitiestoaddressthesestressesatalllevels,andbydifferentactors (especially theconcernedcommunities themselves).

Resilienceisthereforedriventhroughintegratedactionsthatcollectivelyaddressthecomplexsetofshocks,stressorsandchallengeslocalcommunitiesandpeopleface.Anintegratedprogrammeframeworkforresilience,adaptedtotheSouthSudanPfRR,comprisesfourpillars:i)Re-establishAccesstoBasicServices,ii)RebuildTrustinPeopleandInstitutions,iii)RestoreProductiveCapacities,andiv)NurtureEffectivePartnerships.

InSouthSudan,wherethecountryisfragilewithprotractedandrecurrentcrisis(conflictandeconomic),extremepoverty,marginalization and powerlessness, the concept of resilience goes well beyondmaintaining the statusquo.Thishelpsensuretheresilienceframeworkisacommonframework,onethatprovidesaninclusivegoalandplatformamongalldevelopmentpartnerswithdifferentagendas(growthandproductivity,accesstosocialservices,vulnerability, institutionalchangeandcapacitybuilding,amongothers).

Figure 2: PfRR Integrated Programme Framework

Thefourpillarsappliedherearebasedonexperience inSouthSudan,aswellas internationalandregionalbestpractice. The integrated programme framework is used to inform planning that is area and context specific.Furthermore, it helps guide analysis as ameans to better understand what influences and drives resilience.

8

2.3 Theory of change on resilience

TheTheoryofChangeforthePfRRaimstoshowtheaddedvalueofthePartnership’snewwayofworkinginmovingSouthSudantowardsself-relianceandatransitiontodevelopment.

• Ifrecoveryandresilienceprojectsarearea-basedanddesignedtosupportthreekeyprioritiesincludingre-establishingbasicservices;restoringproductivecapacitiesandre-buildingtrustinpeopleandinstitutions;

• and iflocalownershipisprioritizedandcommunityaspirationsarereflectedinandguidethejoint-workofcooperating partners;

• and if there isacollectiveaction toraiseawareness toreducevulnerabilities,andadvocate foradditionalinvestment in resilience, and prioritize evidence-based programming throughM&E and promote learningamong partners;

• then recovery and resilience initiatives will deliver more effective results in reducing vulnerabilities andbuilding self-reliance toward development.

TheaboveispromotedandsupportedbythePfRRthroughitsfiveWorkstreams.Figure3showsthethreelevelsofengagementthatthePartnershipsupports.

Figure 3: Theory of change

9

2.4 The Yambio case study

2.4.1 Partnership for Recovery and Resilience in Yambio

Yambiohasdiversethreatstohumansecuritythataffectvarioussegmentsofthepopulation.Theseincluderisingpoverty,hunger,lackofaccesstobasichealthcare,environmentaldegradation,climatechange,physicalviolence,gender-basedviolence(GBV),inter-ethnicandotheridentity-basedtension,narrowingofpoliticalspace,aswellaseconomicandfinancialdownturns.Asaresultoflimitedcopingcapacities,themajorityofthehouseholdsinYambioin2018wereeithermoderately(68.4percent)orseverelyfoodinsecure(7.9percent).51.6percentofhouseholdswerevulnerabletoinsecurityandviolence.Othervulnerabilitiesexperiencedbyhouseholdsweretheunusualhighpricesoffoodandtransportation(statedby44percentofthepopulation),illnessordeath(32per-cent),reducedhouseholdincomeandemployment(32percent)andpestanddiseaseepidemics(4.2percent)2. The underlyingrootcausesofthechallengesincludeconflictandfragility;deepenedsocialandpoliticalfragmentation;recurrentshocksandstressesrelatedtoclimate-induceddisasters,conflictandeconomiccrisis;inadequategovern-mentcapacitytoprovidebasicsocialservices;geographicalinaccessibility;andpoliticalandeconomicinstability.

DrawingontheexperienceofjointprogrammingworkinAweilandBentiuandinspiredbyaJointDonorandUNagencyvisittoYambioledbytheUNDeputySpecialRepresentativeoftheSecretary-GeneralinJanuary2018andthejointcommitmentby30donors,UNagencies,NGOsandcivilsocietyorganizationsinMarch2018toenhanceintegratedeffortsonresilienceinYambioandelsewhereinSouthSudan,partnersprioritizedtheimplementationofstructural solutionsarticulated inan11-pointagenda.Theagendaaimsatadvancing integratedrecoveryandresilience interventions that address food insecurity, reduce vulnerability and build resilience against multipleshocksthroughafour-pillarapproach:i)Rebuildingtrustinpeopleandinstitutions;ii)Re-establishingaccesstobasicsocialservices;iii)Restoringproductivecapacities;andiv)Nurturingeffectivepartnerships.Ajointprogrammethatpromotesrecoveryandresiliencethroughtheoperationalizationofpartnership-integratingeffortsandbuildingonsynergiesbetweenpeace,humanitariananddevelopmentactorswasdeveloped.

2.4.2 Operationalizing the recovery and resilience agenda

Itisessentialfortherecoveryandresilienceagendatobelocally-drivenforittobesuccessful.ItisalsoimperativethatpartnerssubscribetotheprinciplesofCommitment,Collaboration,Coordination,andColocation(4Cs)forsuchisthebasisofwhichpartnersoperateandworktogethercohesivelywithstakeholders.Followingthedevelopmentofthe11-pointagendatogetherwithlocalleadersandChampions,aprogrammaticframeworkwasdevelopedwithlocalleadersandChampionsthroughtheinitiativeofUNagencies,ledbyUNDP.Theprogrammaticframeworkformedthebasis for the JointProgramme thatwas signedandcommitted intoby12UNagencies –bothhumanitariananddevelopmentandservesastheprimaryvehicleforaddressingthechallengesidentifiedthroughtheResilienceProfile.ThroughtheJointProgramme,partnersbuildonandscale-upinterventionstoenhancetherecoveryofthosealready incrisisandreversethetrendofrisingvulnerability for thoseonthebrinkof falling intocrisis.The JointProgrammewasintendedtocontributetopeaceandstability,aswellas,totheachievementofinclusive,secureandcohesivecommunitiesthatarehealthy,capable,andproductive.TheJointProgrammelooksintothescaling-upofaccesstobasicsocialservices,addressingconflictdrivers,peaceandreconciliationefforts, increasingagriculturalproductivityandpromotinglivelihooddiversificationandemploymentgeneration.

Havingacommonunderstandingofthe issuesandconditionsontheground,theavailableassets,andextentofreachandactivitieswascriticaltowardschartingoutacommonstrategythatutilizestheresourcesofthedifferentactors.Amappingofassetsandexistingandplannedinterventionswasconductedcomplementedbytheprofilingoftheresiliencecapacitiesofhouseholdstoprovideanindepthanalysisofthevariousoffactorsthatundermineandenhancestheresilienceofhouseholdsandcommunities.TheResilienceProfileprovidednotonlyabaselinebut,moreimportantly,astrongbasisforthedeterminationofthekindandtypeofactivities,thetargetingofvulnerablepopulation,andtheadjustmentintheapproachesandstrategies.

TheUNJointProgrammeImplementingPartnersinitiallyformedthecoreforthecoordinationofPfRRinYambio.ThisgroupwassubsequentlyexpandedtoincludeNGOsoperatinginthestateandtheleadershipresponsibilities(inthefourpillars)sharedbetweenUNagenciesandNGOs.EvolvingfromtheUNJointProgrammeImplementingPartnersintothemoreinclusiveYambioPfRRWorkingGroup,thiscoordinationstructureislinkedtotheLocalPartnersForumwhereotherpartners,especiallyGovernmentorganizations,coordinatetheireffortsontheimplementationofthe

2ResilienceContextAnalysis:ResiliencetoshocksthatimpactfoodsecurityandnutritioninSouthSudan,November2015. 

10

11-pointagenda.Theexpansioninthecoordinationstructurenecessitatedchangesinhoworganizationsoperatedinordertogenerateimpactonvulnerabilityandresiliencebuilding.

AJointWorkPlanning(JWP)exercisewasundertakentofurtherarticulatetheoperationalizationofthe4Cs.ThroughtheJWP,anew3Wsmapping(WhoisdoingWhatWhere)wasconductedtoupdatethepreviousmappinginforma-tion.Ananalysisoftheinstitutionalarchitecturewasalsoundertakentoensureamoreeffectiveapproachtowardsthecoordinationofpartnersandbuildontheirstrengthsandpresence.TheJWPprocess,resultedtoagreementamongstlocalstakeholdersonasetofcriteriathatinformedtheidentificationof11bomas/areaswherepartnersconvergewiththedeliveryofservices. Inallofthese initiatives, the localChampionswereengagedandplayedacrucialroleinkeepingthemomentumandinensuringstakeholderengagementandcommitmenttothe11-pointagenda.

2.4.3 What has changed?

Withthefocusontherecoveryandresilienceagenda,therehasbeenincreasedemphasisbythestateontheneedforhumanitariananddevelopmentpartnerstoensurethatactivitiesarealignedwiththefourpillarsoftherecoveryandresilienceframework.Thishasresultedtoheightenedemphasisontheestablishmentofsynergies,transparency,aswellas,efficiencyinbothprogrammingandprogramdeliveryandimplementation,aswellas,theaccountabilityofpartneractivities.WiththePfRRservingastheoverarchingconfigurationinYambiothatbringstogetherbothstateandnon-stateactors,ithasstrengthenedthecommitmentofpartnerstowardsrecoveryandresilienceefforts.

Theconductofthejointworkplanningexercisehasfacilitatedincreasedconvergenceofinitiativesandcollaborationamongstpartners,pavingthewayforgreaterefficiencyandeffectivenessasredundancieswerereduced/avoidedandtheavailabilityanduseofresourceswerebettercomplemented.TheJWPexerciseencouragedcommontargetingofbeneficiariesandencouragedtheStatetopursuethedevelopmentofitsownstrategicplanthatisreflectedoftheinterestofthepeopleandwhichisbasedonthe11-pointagenda.

Pillar Leads identified to strengthen the coordination mechanism in each Pillar has enhance collaboration,colocation,andinformation-sharing.Buildingoncomparativeadvantages,UNDPandUNMISSleadPillar1whileUNICEF,WFPandWorldVisionInternationalareco-PillarleadsinPillar2.FAO,WFPandWorldVisionInternationalleadonPillar3andUNDPleadPillar4workingcloselywithallthePillarleads.ThePillarLeadshavebeenworkingtostrengthenpartnershipandcoordinationstructureswithintheJointWorkProgrammeandwaysintowhichtheJointWorkProgrammesupportandreinforcecoordinationunderthewiderPfRRimplementationthatincludestheLocal Partners Forum.

11

RESILIENCE CONTEXT

3. Resilience Context

3.1 A macro view of shocks and stressors

Shocks and stressors the country, communities and thepeopleof South Sudan face that influence their copingcapacityinclude:governanceandconflict,inflation,economicperformance,poverty,foodandnutritioninsecurity,migrationandclimatevariability.Theimpactoftheseshocksandstressorsisanoftenoverwhelmingrisktoindividualsandcommunities.Managingtheserequiresadeeperunderstandingofeachspecificshock/stressorandtheirtrends.

3.1.1 Governance and conflict

South Sudan remains a highly fragile3 state due to continuing conflict and a crisis in governance. Continuinghostilitiesandviolencebetweenarmedgroupsandcommunitiesweakentraditionalconflictprevention,mediationandresolutionstructures,andhaserodedtheabilityofinstitutionstowithstandpoliticalandsecurityshocks.Weakruleof law institutions translates into total impunityofperpetratorsof violence,and fuels vigilantismandgrosshuman rights violations.

ConsultationsconductedbyUNDPontheCommissionforTruthReconciliationandHealingrevealthatcommunities,especiallywomenandvulnerablegroups,feelleftoutinpeaceandreconciliationinitiativesmainlyduetonegativegenderstereotypesandpatriarchy.Thisisdespiteresearchshowingthatwhenwomenareincludedinthepeaceprocesses, there isa20percent increase in theprobabilityofanagreement lasting twoyears,anda35percentincreaseintheprobabilityofanagreementlastingatleast15years4.

Traumaalsoemergedasamajorchallengeamongwithupto68percentofthepopulationsufferingfromacutetraumaandtriggeringinterpersonalconflictswhichoften,leftunchecked,spiralintocommunalconflicts.Traumaiscausedmainlybydecadesofconflictaggravatedbytheproliferationofsmallarmsinthecountry–overhalfamillionsmallarmsareestimatedtobeinthehandsofthecivilianpopulation–andtheengagementofyouthinconflict(morethan70percentoftherebelforcearemadeupofyouth,from16upto35yearsold5).Addressingtraumaamongthelocalpopulationandtheplightofyouthiscriticalinbreakingthecyclicalnatureofconflict.

Atbothmacroandmicrolevels,conflicthashadamajornegativeimpactontheenablingenvironmentfordevelopmentandresiliencebuilding.GovernmentspendinginSouthSudanaveragedSSP5558.97millionfrom2008until2016,reachinganall-timehighofSSP8381.30millionin2016andarecordlowofSSP4331.50millionin20126.Theconflicthashadan impactonnationalbudgetallocations to resiliencebuildinganddevelopment,withSecurity,RuleofLawandPublicAdministrationbeingthelargestsectorsofexpenditure;together,accountingforapproximately70percentofgovernmentexpenditures7.

Episodesofconflicthavebecomewidespread,hencetheirnegativeimpactondevelopmentandresiliencebuilding.Ontopofwhich,localizedinsecurityhascontinuallyoccurredeveninyearsconsideredtoberelativelycalm,suchas2011,affectingcommunities’resiliencebuilding.Figure4providesanoverviewonthetrendsininsecurityincidencesfrom2011until2018.

3 http://fundforpeace.org/fsi/2017/05/14/fsi-2017-factionalization-and-group-grievance-fuel-rise-in-instability/.4 LaurelStone(2015).Women’sRolesinPeaceProcesses5 InternationalAlert2012,PeaceandConflictAssessmentofSouthSudan6 TradeEconomics;NationalBureauofStatistics,SouthSudan7 CFSAMReport,March2019

12

Figure 4: Trends in insecurity incidences from 2011 -- 2018

Source: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)

3.1.2 Inflation

CurrencydevaluationinDecember2015hasledtohighinflationandworseningexchangerateoftheSouthSudanesepoundtotheUSdollar.InflationinSouthSudanaveraged89percentfrom2008to2018,withanall-timehighof549percentinSeptember2016.InflationbegantodecreaseinJuly2017,whiletheSouthSudanesepoundcontinuedtodepreciateagainsttheUSdollar,significantlyaffectingcommodityprices.ThedeterioratingexchangeratehasbeenpositivelycorrelatedwiththepricesofthemajorfoodcommoditiesinthemarketsasmostofthecommoditiesareimportedfromUganda.Thishasincreasedcostofimportingfoodintothecountry,limitingtraders’abilitytoimportandsupply foodcommodities inenoughquantities.Asa result, therisingcostof foodbaskethaspushedmanyhouseholdsintofoodinsecurity.

3.1.3 Economic performance (growth and trade)

The economy relies heavily on oil production – the most oil-dependent country in the world – with oilaccounting for the bulk of its exports of about 60 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and morethan 95 percent of government revenues8. In recent years, the economic performance has been hinderedby thedecline inglobaloilprices (fromUSD110perbarrel in2014toaboutUSD50 in2017)andthereductionin oil production following the outbreak of civil war by end of 2013. The implication of declining GDP andnegative growth rate is the government’s inability to raise adequate revenues to implement its programmes,including the provision of basic services and other development programmes (such as those targeting cropproduction and livestock sector), would enable the country to meet its food requirements (see Figure 5.2).

8 https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/east-africa/south-sudan/south-sudan-economic-outlook/

13

Figure 5.1: Trends of inflation and currency exchange rates

Figure 5.2: South Sudan GDP Annual Growth Rate

3.1.4 Poverty

Asthesituationcontinuestodeteriorate inSouthSudan, thedepthofpovertyhas increased,asrevealedbytheWorldBank/SouthSudanNationalBureauofStatisticsHighFrequencySurveysof2015,whereby66percentofthepopulationinSouthSudanareestimatedaslivingbelowthepovertyline.Althoughpovertyishigherinruralareas(68percent)whencomparedtourbanareas(50percent),thoseinurbanareasaresubjecttomarketpriceshocksdrivingthemdeeperintofoodinsecurity.

14

3.1.5 Food insecurity

The2018ManagementSystems International (MSI)householdsurveysand focusgroupdiscussionsconfirmthatfoodinsecurityisarealandubiquitousriskinSouthSudan,entangledinwarfare,conflictandclimatevariabilities.Mosthouseholdsinthesevenpartnershipareasexperiencedlackoffoodovera12-monthperiod(Figure6.1).Civilwarandconflictarethemaindriversoffoodinsecurityinmostcounties,followedbyclimateshockslikedrought.Torit, Bor, Rumbek andAweil claimed the largest impacts fromdroughts; Torit, Bor andAweil also experiencedsignificantflooding.Unknowncausesandanimal/insectpestsmodestlyaffectedfoodsecurity (Figure6.2).

Figure 6.1: Lack of Food Cause

Mosthouseholdsrespondedtofoodinsecuritybypurchasingfoodwiththeirownresourcesorrelyingonrelatives.InareassuchasBor,andtoalesserextentWau,ToritandYei,householdsreliedonWFPorNGOfoodaid.Governmentfoodaidplaysaminimalrole–onlyinBorandYeididitreachmorethan5percentofhouseholds.Insomecommunities,wildplantsandanimalsplayanotableroleincurtailingfoodshortages(Figure6.2).Forcommunitiesdependentonforaging,protectionfromregionalviolenceandcommunityaccesstolocalnaturalresourceshasaddedimportance.

Inadditiontosocialandenvironmentalfactorsthatinhibitfoodsecurity(Figure6.1),humanactivitiescanthreatensoil–andthereforefoodsecurityresilience–aswellasthreatenhumanhealthandlivelihoodsduetopollutantsanddestructionofnaturalresources.Bushburning,forone,isprevalentinallsevencounties.Exacerbatingitsnegativehealtheffects,bushburningthreatensagriculturalresiliencebydeterioratingsoilstructure,decreasingagriculturalproductivity andbiodiversity, and exacerbating erosion and runoffpollutants (Ozaslan et al., 2015; Vagen et al.,2005).Prevalentcharcoalburningfurtherthreatensairqualityandrespiratoryhealth.Timberlumberingexistsinallcounties,butespeciallyinRumbekandYambio,furtherthreateninglandandbiodiversityresilience.Mostcountiesalsosuffersignificantovergrazing,with its long-termresilienceconsequences.Finally,mining, toxicdumpingandfishingchemicalsaffectselectedregionsincounties.

15

Figure 6.2: Responses to Food Shortages

3.1.6 Migration

Mobility is a common phenomenon in South Sudan and used for community building, kinship and intertribalmarriages,aswellastopursuelivelihoodsandinresponsetoarangeofexpectedorunexpectedthreats.People,particularlyyouth,continuetomoveinternallyandacrossborderstopursueeducationandemploymentopportunities.Increasingly,peoplemovetore-joinfamilieswhohavealreadymigrated.

Duetoconflictandothercrises,SouthSudanexperiencesforcedmigrationwhichresultsinahighnumberofinternallydisplacedpeople (IDPs),mostofwhomseekprotection inUNMISSProtectionofCivilian (PoC)sitesandcollectivecentresor creating informal settlements.Displacement trendsacrossgeographic regions remaindynamic,and in2018areaffectinggroupsacrosstheGreaterEquatoria,WesternBahrelGhazal,andtheGreaterUpperNileregion.

AccordingtotheInternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM)betweenNovemberandDecember2018,37percentofIDPswerereportedtolivein77displacementsitesasopposedtohostcommunitysettings.ThepercentagewasespeciallyhighinUnity(60percent)andCentralEquatoria.WhileinEasternEquatoriaIDPsweremostcommonlyfoundtobelivingalongsidehostcommunities,whereonlytwopercentofdisplacedlivedindisplacementsites.

Overall,atotalof1275868IDPswere identifiedacrossthecountry inNovember-December2018,withone-fifthhavingarrivedintheirpresent locationin2018alone,and70percent in2017and2018combined.

UnityStatecontinuedtohostthelargestnumberofIDPs,atotalof201385,primarilyduetothepresenceoftheBentiuPoCsite,currentlythelargestPoCsiteinthecountry.AsaresultoffrequentclashesbetweenarmedforcesinUnityState,evenaftertheceasefirewasagreedtoinJuneandtheRevitalizedPeaceAgreementwassignedinSeptember 2018, new displacement continued, and the unstable security situation prevented many IDPs fromreturning to theirareasofhabitual residence.

16

SimilartrendsarealsoreflectedinCentralEquatoria(188639IDPs)andWesternBahrelGhazal(168875IDPs),bothofwhichalsohostasignificantportionofthecountry’sIDPsandPoCsites,andbothlocationsexperiencedseveralclashesbetweenarmed forces in2018.Furthermore,communalclashes inWesternBahrelGhazalcontinuedtoforciblydisplacepopulations,albeitatasmallerscale.

Inthemajorityofstates,conflictbetweenarmedforcesaccountedfortheprimaryreasonofdisplacement.Somestates weremore greatly impacted by conflict compared to others, primarily Upper Nile (100 percent), CentralEquatoria(97percent),Unity(95percent)andWesternEquatoria(95percent).Twoexceptionstothistrendwerenoted,specificallyLakesandJonglei,wherecommunalclashes,mostlycattleraidsandclashesbetweenpastoralistsandfarmersaccountedfortheprimaryreasonofdisplacement.

Intermsofterritoryofdisplacement,overhalfofallIDPpopulations(63percent)weredisplacedfromwithinthesamecounty,while21percentofIDPsweredisplacedfromwithinthesamestatebutadifferentcountyand15percentofIDPsweredisplacedfromanotherstate.Consideringspecificstates,inNorthernBahrelGhazalthemajorityofIDPs(74percent)weredisplacedfromanotherstate,whileinUnity,andWesternandCentralEquatoria,alargepercentageofIDPsweredisplacedfromwithinthesamecounty(79percent,78percentand78percent,respectively).

Withrespecttotrendsofreturnin2018,atotalof866846returnees(154925households)wereidentifiedintheperiodNovember-December2018,withathirdofthemarrivingintheirpresentlocationin2018,70percentwhenlookingat2017and2018combined.Overall,thehighestnumberofreturnswereobservedinWesternEquatoriawhichhosts46957returnees,50percentofwhomarrivedin2018alone.EasternEquatoriahostedthesecondlargestnumberofreturnees,44869intotal,46percentofwhomarrivedin2018.MagwiCounty(EasternEquatoria)hosted18985returnees,beingthehighestnumberforanycounty,bothatthestateandnationallevels.TheproximityofbothEasternandWesternEquatoriatointernationalborders,aswellasrelativestabilityintermsofsecurityin2018,potentiallyencouragedconditionsforreturn.Furthermore,theEquatoriaregionhasashorterhistoryofconflictanddisplacementintherecentcivilwar,incontrasttootherareas.

Moreover,atotalof55526individuals(9945households)wereidentifiedasrelocatedtoanewareaofhabitualresidence.Thisreferstoindividualswhohavechosenanewhabitualresidenceafterdisplacement,eitherintegratingwithintheirdisplacedlocationorresettlingtoathirdlocation.ThiswasparticularlyobservedinJongleiStatewhichaccountedfor16502(30percent)ofrelocatedindividuals,followedbyUpperNileState(9287ind.;[17percent]).Figuresonrelocatedindividualsmayremainunderestimatedconsideringthatitcanbedifficultforkeyinformantstoassesswhetherindividualswhohavearrivedfromotherareashaveanintentiontoremainsettledlongterm9.

Inadditiontocivilconflict,bothinternalandcross-bordermigrationinSouthSudanisrootedintraditionofsemi-nomadicpastoralistgroupswithnormalmovementsandmigrationslargelyshapedbyseasonalpatternsdeterminedbyrainfallandtherelatedavailabilityofpastureandwater.Thesetraditional livestockkeepermigrations,usuallygoverned by seasonality, avoidance of diseases, commercial and trading needs, social and illegal reasons suchas raidingand theft,havebeen relativelypeacefuland resilientas theyhavebeenshapedandadopted to localconditionsandcomplexitiesovertheyears.

However,theconflicttriggeredanunprecedentedforcedmigrationofmillionsofheadsoflivestock,where,herders’choicesofmigration routeswere influencedby theneed toprotect their livestock rather thanseeking feedandwateravailability.Disruptedtraditionalmigrationrouteshaveaffectednotonlytheconditionsoflivestockandthelivelihoodsofpastoralistcommunitiesbutalsothelivelihoodsandphysicalsecurityofresidentfarmingcommunities.

Cattlemigration,especiallyduringdryseasons,hasresulted intheftandcattlerustling,destructionofcropsandconflictsbetweencropfarmersandcattlekeepers,aswellasamongcattlekeepers.Therehasbeensomesuccessinmanagingcattlemigrationseasons,notablyinNorthernBahrelGhazal,wherecattlemigrationconferencesbetweenthepastoralistcommunitiesofSudanandtheDinkacommunitieshavereducedtheusualconsequenceofcattlemigrationandwhichhasbeenhailedasamodeltobereplicatedinotherpartsofthecountry.

WithregardstomigrationsflowsacrosstheborderstheinfluxfromSouthSudanintothesixasylumcountrieswasongoingin2018.Overall,atotalof2.3millionsofSouthSudaneserefugeeswerehostedinsixcountries,namelyUganda(789098),Sudan(852080),Ethiopia(422240),Kenya(115286),DemocraticRepublicofCongo(DRC)(95704)andCentralAfricanRepublic(CAR)(2576).

Concerningnewarrivalsin2018,atotalof107496SouthSudanesemovedoutcitingfearsofsexualandphysicalviolence,political uncertainty, forced recruitment of children into armed groups, and looting compoundedby food insecurityas reasons forfleeing their countryoforigin.However, this representedamarkedreductionof84percent (561065individuals)incomparisonwith2017withsome668192newarrivals.ThelargestnumberofnewSouthSudaneserefugeesseekasyluminUganda(44758),followedbySudan(33117),Ethiopia(19770),Kenya(7325),DRC(6201)andCAR(325)10.

9 IOM,SouthSudanMobilityTrackingRound410 UNHCRSouthSudanRegionalUpdate,December2018.

17

Local context analysis

Aspreviouslyreferenced,in2018,PfRRsponsoreddetailedhouseholdsurveysinsevenpartnershipareascoveringYambio, Aweil, Torit,Wau, Rumbek, Bor and Yei. A principle intent of the household surveyswas to inform thepreparationofresilienceprofilesforeachoftheareasthatprovidescontextspecificevidenceofthestressorsforthearea.Thisdataandanalysisprovideanin-depthlookattheindividualpartnershipareas.ThisinformationcombinedwithFSNMSandIPCanalysisenhanceourunderstandingofshocksandstressorsatthemicrolevel.

3.1.7 Local governance and institutions

UsinghouseholdsurveysandfocusgroupdiscussionsconductedbyMSIin2018insevenpartnershipareas11,thefindingsindicatedthattheimpactofinstitutionsandlocalleadershiponhouseholdsisheterogeneousacrossthesevenpartnershipareas.Our results suggest thatparamountchiefsandother traditional chiefs,aswellas localgovernment,playthelargestleadershiprole,thoughtheirinfluencevariesacrosstheareas;forexample,WauandYeiplayasmallerrole.PoliceandpeacecommitteesplayastrongroleinTori,Wau,YeiandRumbek(Figure7.3).NGOsandFaith-basedOrganizations(FBOs)playamodestrole insomecounties,thoughdataerrorsandsurveyinconsistenciesmayobfuscate theiractual role.

Inmostcommunities,traditionalleaderscontinuetoplayasignificantrole.Mostsurveyedhouseholdsinthreeofthesevencountiesindicatedthattraditionalleadersplayalargerrolethanpoliticalleaders;anegligibleproportionbelieved political leaders hadmore influence, though a significant number of households did not know whichplayedthemoreimportantrole(Figure7.1).Traditionalleadersseemtocarrymoreimportanceinthecountiesthatpredominantlyelectthem(Figures7.1and7.2).

Figure 7.1 Figure 7.2

Nearlyallresponsesfrominterviewsandfocusgroupswerecriticalofpoliticalleadership,butdidnotcriticizetraditionalleaders,norNGOs,FBOs,churchesorpeacecommittees.Employingpeacecommitteeswas identifiedas themostpositivegovernmentaction,butmostdiscussionsinfocusgroupsindicatedextremelackoftrustinpoliticalleadership.Thisdistrustseemstiedtothebeliefthatpoliticianshavedemonstratedgreed,lackoftransparencyandaccountability,especiallyrelatedtofinancesandnaturalresources.Commentsindicatedthatpoliticiansclingtopower,appointofficesbasedonfavoritisminsteadofqualificationoreducation,andusemoneytobuyweaponsandprotectthemselvesatthecostofothers:“eatandgetridofothers.”Somecommunitiesfeltthatdisparatelevelsofeducationcreatesconflictsincetheeducatedbecometheeliteandthuscanmanipulateothers.Remarksalsoexpressedangerovergovernmentsilenceaboutatrocities,lackofsupportforvictims,governmentthreateningcivilians,theabsenceoflaw,orderandconstitution,andlimitedcontactwithcommunities–highlightingthedifferencebetweentownsand“grassroots,wheretheyapplytraditionLawsofWanth-Alel.”However,peacecommitteesinYambioapplaudedthethree-monthholidayinwhichleaderscouldvisittheircommunitiesandfindouttheirneeds,thusbuildingtrust.Othersnotedthelackofdisseminationofpeace:“thegrassrootscouldn’tgetanynewsaboutthepeaceandknewnothingaboutit.”

11 Householdsurveyswereconductedoveraperiodoftwoweeks,includingtravel,trainingandfieldworkactivities.Eachenumeratorsurveyedroughly60households.Enumerationareaswereselectedbyprobabilityproportionaccordingtohouseholdsize.Thesamplingframewasbasedonthe2008PopulationandHousingCensusconductedinSouthSudan,withsomeupdatedinformation.

18

The realization of strong, accountable and inclusive institutions; the establishment/strengthening of structuresandinstitutionstosupportpeace,reconciliationandsocialcohesion;andtheprovisionofsupporttoapeaceandreconciliationprocessthatisdrivenbythepeople,especiallywomenandyouth,arekeyaspectsofrebuildingtrust.Resilience isbeingbuiltbyenhancingtheabilityofhouseholdsandcommunitiestomake informeddecisionsonalternative strategies (adaptive capacities)basedon theevolvingsituation/changingconditions.

Figure 7.3: Major Institutions Affecting Households / Figure 7.4: Role of Tradition Leaders

19

RESILIENCE PROFILE – REBUILD TRUST IN PEOPLE AND INSTITUTION

Mr Ruot Panom Deng is a former cattle rustler turned peace maker and arbitrator, now settling local cattle rustling disputes. Mr Ruot was born to a large extended family of Dinka Duk ethnic group and he took a leadership role amongst his peers at an early age. At the age of 16, he led a group of the most notorious cattle rustlers and raiders across Jonglei. Their raids targeted Lou Nuer, Gawaar, Murle and even some Dinka clans. “We survived using raids, because it was the only way we could restock our kraals. When we were raided, we could avenge to keep the balance” The Duk Community falls on the triangle of the Lou Nuer, Gawaar and Murle. All these communities have traditional animosity amongst themselves which is exacerbated by cattle raids and child abductions.

The change of heart came to Mr Ruot when he was nominated by his community to be a member of local peace committee for Duk, (which coincided with his appointment as local chief). As a member of the Duk peace committee, he underwent the Transformational Leadership, Peace and Conflict Management training conducted by UNDP.

“Before I joined the peace committee and subsequently the training of transformational leadership, I always called myself leader, for I was a believer of avenging the mistake done to my people. I carried out many raids that led to many deaths. Through the training, I realized that leadership demands that a leader care for his people and avoid issues that expose them to unnecessary death… this is what I have been doing for the last four months”.

Ironically, as a member of the peace committee, Mr Ruot is tasked to mediate issues of cattle rustling and raids that are one of the main conflict drivers in the region. When asked how he is finding his new role and whether he regrets his past actions, he said, “Being a member of peace committee has transformed my life. I wasn’t a leader before, because all my actions contributed to conflict amongst communities which caused pain and suffering to the people. I now understand the frustration and pain we had inflicted to the victims whom we had stolen cattle. As a peace committee member, in many occasions, I meet frustrated people who seek our help to negotiate the return of their cattle. The tear on the face of a mother who has a toddler that depends on a cow that has been raided is devastating. When I reflected on my past deeds, those might be the tears I put on faces of many victims.”

Mr Ruot has so far attended five negotiations for the return of the rustled cattle. He succeeded in three negotiations that have led to the return of cows. “I have been in the business of cattle rustling before, so it is very easy for me to know the criminals who are doing what in my community. By the virtue that youth dealing in cattle rustling have respect for me, I can easily negotiate for swap or return of stolen cattle between communities.”

As a transformative leader, Mr Ruot is working with other members of the peace committee to ensure that sustainable peace is achieved within their communities. His wish is to reduce the incidents of the conflict within their communities. He appeals to the national government to conduct disarmament in his region to reduce the crime rates that trigger inter-communal conflict.

20

3.1.8 Essential services

SouthSudanhasamixedHIVepidemicwithestimatednationalprevalenceamongadults(15-49years)of2.4percentin2018,andwidegeographicdisparityacrossthecountry.Anestimated180000peoplearelivingwithHIV,thoughonly20-25percentofthemknowtheirHIVstatus.Thehumanitariancontext inSouthSudanisfertilegroundfortheHIVepidemic,withmultiplelevelsofvulnerabilityandrisk–sexualandGBV,displacementanddestitution,foodinsecurity,healthcarechallenges,etc.During thecrisis, theMinistryofHealthandpartners lost trackofagoodnumberofPLHIVontreatmentwhohadbeendisplaced,internallyandacrosstheborders,especiallyintoUganda,KenyaandDRC.DatagapisahugeproblemintheHIVresponse.

Insecurityinsomelocationsleadstoservicedisruptionsforrefugees.ItalsopreventedschoolfeedinginRaja(WesternBahrelGhazal),Pibor(Jonglei)andMaiwut(UpperNile).AgovernmentcampaigntodisarmpastoralistsintencattlecampsinformerLakesStatereducedattendanceofliteracyandlifeskillsclasses.Communityled-totalsanitationactivitieswerealsoconstrainedbyconflictandinsecurity.Arrestsofkeypopulations,especiallyfemalesexworkers,increasedfeelingsofinsecurityamongkeypopulations.

Destructionofanddisruptiontofacilitiesmadeitimpossibletoprovidecontinuousbasicservicesinmanylocations.Routineexpandedprogrammesofimmunizationandplannedvaccinationcampaignswerealsodisrupted.Meanwhile,schoolscontinuetobedestroyedorremainunusableandteachershavefledviolenceandeconomicstress.

Lowimmunizationrates, thebreakdowninhealth infrastructureandmassmovementsofthepopulation,resultsin a high potential for the spreadof infectious and vaccine-preventable diseases, such as cholera andmeasles.Subsequently,in2018,therewerewidespreadreportsofmeasles,andmalariaremainsthemaincauseofmorbidityandmortalityforchildren.

Poorgovernmentfundingiscompromisingabilitytoachievetargets.ThiswasparticularlynotedinthehealthsectorandconcerningHIV services. Inbothgovernmentandopposition-controlledareas,officialsdemand registration,taxationandlandingfeesfromaidorganizations.Meanwhile,economicdifficultiesledtoatemporarysuspensionofactivitiesinclinicsduetoadisputebetweencommunityeldersdemandingthatvolunteersbepaidinUnitedStatesdollars rather than South Sudanese pounds.

Socialnormsalsoconstrainedaccesstoservices.Parentshinderingadolescentandyouthaccesstoanduptakeofsexualandreproductivehealthservices.Somehusbandshavealsothreatenedthesafetyofhealthworkersprovidingfamilyplanningservices,denyingtheirwivesaccess.Assuch,lowawarenessofwomen’srights,andfearofstigmaandisolation,remainkeychallengesinaddressingGBV.Healthproviderbiasisanadditionalbarrier,andtherehavebeenchallengesincondomdistributionduetostigma.

Insecurityandlackofaccesstomostcommunitiesmeansthatbuildingnetworksofadvocatesandchampionsforequality, rights and changing gendernorms, especially onGBV remains challenging. It hasnotbeenpossible todevelopjusticeforchildren.Women’slackofaccesstoanyformofjusticeandlegalaidprovisionmeanthatresponseswillcontinuetoprioritizerecoveryfromabusebutnotjusticeandsocontinueimpunity.

3.1.9 Education

In the seven partnership areas, low literacy (Figure 8.1) and education rates (Figure 8.2) are associated withcommunitieswherealargerpercentageofhouseholdslivemorethan5kmfromaprimaryschoolandwherenosecondaryschoolexists,suchasBorandRumbekEast.However,households inBorandRumbekEast identifiedculturalbarriers,notschooldistance,asthepredominantreasonnottoattendschool.Othersignificantobstaclestoschoolattendanceincludealowvalueplacedoneducation,ortheneedforyouthtohelpsupportthefamily–thoughtherangeofexpressedobstaclesvariesmoreincommunitieswithhighereducationlevels,andqualitativeresponses(below),includingfromfemalesandyouth,revealmorediverseviewpoints.Mostschoolsaregovernment-funded,withamodestproportionofprivately-ownedschools.FBOschoolsaremostcommoninYei,WauandYambio.

21

Figure 8.1: Percentage of household members (adults) that are literate Figure 8.2: Percentage of household members that have been to school

3.1.10 Health

InWau,YeiandBor,ahigherpercentageofhouseholdshaveexperiencedqualityhealthcareservices,asmeasuredbytimeliness,sufficientinformationprovidedtopatients,andavailabilityofaqualifiedhealthprovider.Accordingtosurveyedhouseholds,AweilandToritexperiencedthelowestoverallqualityofcare(Figure9).Focusgroupdiscussionshighlightgeneraldiscouragementwithhealthservices,notingthelongdistancestohospitals,absenceofdrugsinpharmacies,andthatdoctorshave“givenupbecauseoflowpayornofacilities.”CommentsindicatedtheknownrisksofHIV,compromisedby testing-avoidanceduetosocialstigma. Inadditionto formalservices, respondentsdescribedlesscommunityinvestmentincaringforthesickanddisabled:“ourenergyhasbeencutinhalf;wearenotcheckingonthemoften.”NGOhelpwasrequested,andrespondentsalsocalledforsupportontraumaawarenessandreconciliation.

3.1.11 Water

Whilemultiplewatersourcesmaybeavailableineachcommunity,mosthouseholdsdependononeortwoprimarysources.Handpumpsprovidethepredominantwatersourceforthesevencommunitiesinthepartnershipareas;deepboreholes(withoutanetwork),shallowwellsandwatervendorsalsoprovideprimaryaccessformany.Mosthouseholdstravellessthan30minutestotheavailablewatersource(Figure10.1).

Manyrespondentsmanifestedconcernforcommunitymanagementtoprotectseparateboreholesforhumansandlivestock, andcalled forNGOorgovernment support tobringboreholes todistant rural communities.Weneed“supportdiggingwaterholesatleast2to3kmapart…keepingwaterforanimalsandsomeboreholesforhumans.Theseshouldbemanagedbyjointcommunities(hostandArabnomads).”Therewasconcernforthedistanceonetravelstocollectwaterandtheeffortstoeasethecollectionburden.Onecan“sellenoughcropstobuyabiketocarrywaterfromafar.Mostwalk8kmcarryingwaterontheirhead.”However,thisdistancedoesnotseemtoberepresentative,giventhatthesurveydatashowedthatlessthan10percentofhouseholdstravellongerthanonehourtoreachawatersource(Figure10.2).

22

Figure 9: Quality of Healthcare Services

Figure 10.1: Main Water Source of Surveyed HouseholdsFigure 10.2: Travel Time to Water Source

23

3.1.12 Productive Capacities and Opportunities

Withrespecttofarming,allcountiesfocusoncarbohydrate-densegrainsasthemostimportantcrops.Fourofthesevencountiesrelyonsorghum;YambioandYeiprioritizemaize.OnlyhouseholdsinWauindicatedmorediversity,prioritizingsorghumandmaize,aswellasvegetablesandgroundnut. Intheothersixcounties,85-98percentofallhouseholdscultivatesorghumormaize;Wauistheonlyexception,indicatingthatbothcropspecializationandhouseholddiversificationisbroader.However,onlyhalfofthosesurveyedinWauparticipateincropproduction,comparedto70-90percentofthosefromotherpartnershipareas.

Inallcounties,manyhouseholdscultivateadditionalcrops,particularlygroundnut,onionandcassava,withcertaincountiesindicatingmorehouseholdproductionofrice,tomato,carrot,watermelon,okra,sweetpotatoandsimsim.

Focusgroupdiscussionshighlightedtheroleagricultureinrespecttofoodsecurity,aswellasincultural identity,peaceanddignity.AsanactingParamountChiefinAweilexpressed,“Farmingtomeistheonlywayforcommunityresilience.”MalefarmersinAweilechoedthissentiment,“Ifpeacecomes,everyonewillgotothefarm–farmingiseverythinginthecountry.”Manyrespondentscommentsacrossdemographicslookedtofarmingforfoodsecurity,bothcommunally,“Theonlywaynowistofocusonagriculture,becauseitistheonlythingthatpeoplecandependon,”andatthehouseholdlevel,“Rightnow,theonlywaythatIamsurvivingisthroughagriculture;IhavesurvivedwithkidsbecauseIworkonpeople’sfarms.”Yetothersexpressedasenseofvulnerabilityinagriculturalsurvival:“Thewayoflifehaschangedbecausemostofthepeoplenowdon’thavetheirownstyleoffoodsecurity,buttheydependonthefoodgivenbytheinternationalagenciesorbylocalNGOs.”

Many respondents expressed a sense of collective strength in agriculture for information-sharing, coordinationwithexternalsupport (“NGOssay ‘stay incooperativessowecanhelp’”)andcollective-cultivationcoordinatedbycooperatives,CBOsorcongregations.Theyhighlightedtheroleoffoodsecurityforstrengtheningre-integrationinhostcommunities.Somerespondentsraisedtherisksofagronomicknowledgebeinglost,speakingofmorediversecultivationbypreviousgenerations,andtheneedtomaintainagronomiceducation,atrainingcentreforvegetables,fishpondsandbeekeeping.

Respondents also identified a number of threats to agricultural productivity, namely a lack of tools and skills,croppestsandsecurity.Theycalledforassistanceintheformofgardentools,pestmanagementknowledgeandinsecticides.Somebelievedthat,skilledandequippedwithmoderntools togrowavarietyofcrops, “productionwouldbeenough.”Securityremainsathreattoproduction,foragingandfishing.InTorit,lastyear“peoplehavenotcultivated,becauseifyougototheforest,thenyoucanbeshot.”Somefishinglocations“youcan’tgothere”withoutriskingbeingkilled.

Market-drivenlivelihoodactivitiesdiffernotablybycommunities,andcertainlivelihoodactivitiesdiffersignificantlybygenderandregion(Figure11.1).Mostoftheworkingpopulationisengagedincropproduction,with70-90percentof themenandwomenparticipating in all counties, exceptWau. Inmost of the surveyed counties,womenaremorelikelythanmentoworkinfoodanddairyprocessing,baking,retailandtailoring.Mendominateconstruction,mechanic and carpentry industries, and to a lesserdegree, livestockproduction. Cropproduction, catering, andmanymarket-oriented livelihoodactivitiespresentroughlyequalparticipationfrommen,women,girlsandboys.Malesandfemalesviewtheobstaclestolivelihoodactivitiesdifferently(Figure11.2),asdoyouthandadults(Figure11.3);youthopinionsaretypicallymorehomogenousacrossthesevencountiesthanadultopinionsof livelihoodobstacles.Women,men,femaleyouthandmaleyouthallcitedinsecurity,lackofemploymentopportunities,andlackofcapitalastheprimarylivelihoodobstacles.Acrossthecounties,femaleyouthmoreconsistentlyindicatedthatinsecurityinhibitedlivelihoods.Womencomplainedofgenderdiscriminationmorethanmen,whileboyscomplainedofgenderdiscriminationmorethangirls.

24

Figure 11.1: Livelihoods by Gender

25

Figure 11.2: Livelihood Challenges by Gender and County

Figure 11.3: Livelihood Challenges and Youth Perspectives by Gender and County

26

RESILIENCE PROFILE – RESTORE PRODUCTION CAPACITIES

Learning new tricks

Golf ball sized sachets with peanut butter, okra powder and roasted nuts fills up a big round silver tray. Behind, on a brown plastic chair is Niro Deng Awar. Shop owner and leader of the women’s group in the Haj Salam area in Aweil.

She has run the small shop for a long time, but recently her business started booming. This happened after a marketing training.

“I learnt the importance of how you present your commodities, keeping everything clean. I learnt new sales tricks, such as giving small discounts to loyal customers. This was such an eye-opener to me.”

Her business improving immediately affected the situation in her home.

“Now, I’m able to give my children proper food every day. I can even pay for their medication when they are sick. Before I would struggle, and it pained me to see my children suffer”

Her newly acquired bookkeeping skills has also been fruitful, preventing recessions to take her back to the old days.

“I now see trends and are able to foresee when money will get tighter. I can adjust before it gets too tight, or even get a loan. I have 12 children relying on me”.

The commodities in the shop she buys in the market, but her plan is to start producing some of these products herself. “I have a new direction in life, and my children are the best proof of that”.

Under the joint recovery and resilience programme in Aweil, women are provided with marketing classes to increase resilience among families.

UN

ICEF

Sou

th S

udan

/Rye

ng

27

MEASURING RESILIENCE

4.1 Measuring resilienceThepurposeofthissectionistodescribehowresilienceismeasuredandwhatvariablesareincluded.Italsoprovidesbackgroundonresiliencemeasurementasanemergingbodyofanalysis.

Whilemanyofdonorprogrammes incorporateelementsof resilience into theirobjectivesandactivities, currentPfRReffortsaimtohaveameasurableimpactonpopulations.Thisreliesonmultiplemonitoringindicatorstoassesstheimpactofresilienceinvestments,includingareductioninhumanitarianassistanceneeds,minimizingdepthofpovertyandhunger,severefoodinsecurities,andglobalacutemalnutritionlevels.

Themeasurementofresilienceisanewandrapidlydevelopingareaofresearchandpractice(Winderl,2014),andagrowingnumberofNGOsandorganizationshavedevelopedandhighlightedresilienceindicatorsasakeycomponentofmeasuringprogrammesuccess(SchipperandLangston,2015),resultinginmanydifferentapproachesatmeasuringresiliencequantitativelyandqualitatively.OnequantitativetoolisFAO’sResilienceIndexMeasurementandAnalysis(RIMAII)methodology,whichestimatesresiliencetofoodinsecurityandgeneratestheevidencetoinformdecisionsthateffectivelyassistvulnerablepopulations.AnexampleofaqualitativeapproachistheUNDP’sCommunity-BasedResilienceAnalysis(CoBRA),whichintendstounderstandresiliencefromcommunityandhouseholdperspectivesbasedontheassumptionthatbuildingblocksofresiliencevaryfromlocationtolocationusingparticipatorymethods.OtherresiliencemeasurementapproachesincludetheTechnicalAssistancetoNGOs(TANGO),ResilienceContextAnalysis(WFP),UNandFAOSelf-evaluationandHolisticAssessmentofClimateResilienceoffarmersandpastoralists(SHARP),amongothers.

Resilienceasaconcept ishighly linkedtovulnerability,however, technically thetwoarenot interchangeable.Theinterplaybetweenvulnerability,resiliencecapacityandshocksdeterminethelevelatwhichaunitwillbeatasfarasaparticularwell-beingoutcome(e.g.foodsecuritystatus,healthoutcome,poverty)isconcerned.Sinceresilienceisacollectionofattributes,thenitimpliesthatitisalsomultidimensionalinnature.Thereforewhenquantifyingthiscapacity foranyunit itmust take intoaccountanarrayof indicators includingeconomic (assets,markets, supplychains),social(socialcapital,socialnetworks),technological(agriculturalpractices),environmental(naturalresourcesandtheirsustainablemanagementstrategies),infrastructure-related(roads),safety(conflictmitigationpractices)andinstitutional(government)resourcesandcapabilities.Giventhedynamicnatureofalltheseaspects,resiliencecapacityisafunctionoftimeandshapedbythenatureofeventsinvolved.Inotherwords,resilienceishighlytimedependent.

Since thenatureofevents vary fromplace toplaceanddifferent communitiesattachvaried importanceon thearrayofindicatorshighlightedabove,resiliencemustbeviewedasbeingcontextspecificandmeasurementdoneatmultiple levels includinghouseholds,communitiesorregions.

WithrespecttothePfRR,amixedapproachwouldbeidealformeasuring,monitoringandevaluatingitssuccessesand contributions to the resilience capacity of bothhouseholds and the community at large.Quantitatively, theindicatorsundereachofthefourresultareascouldbeused,adoptingFAO’sRIMAframeworkduetoitsrobustnessandflexibilitytocomeupwithanindexthatmeasuresthechangeintheresiliencecapacitiesoftargethouseholdsandcommunities.Thiscanthenbetriangulatedandexplainedinqualitativetermsbyarticulatingtheoutputsofeachactivity/actionundereach“pillar”toshowhowtheycontributetotheoverallobjectivesofthePfRR.

ItshouldbenotedthatwhenevertheRIMA-IIframeworkisappliedtocross-sectionaldata,theresultingmeasureshouldbeinterpretedintermsofcountry,communityorhouseholdcapacitieswithrespecttoaparticularwellbeingoutcome. Indeed,becauseresilience isadynamicconcept, it isbestmeasuredwithpanelor longitudinaldata inwhichchanges inwellbeingover time,asaresultofshocks,areobserved. Inacross-sectionalsetting, theRIMA-IImethodologymeasuresthecontributionofdifferentcapacitiestothecurrentwell-beingoutcome(usuallyfoodsecurity). By design, thehigher the capacities, thehigher the expectedoutcomeand the lower the vulnerabilityassociatedwiththewellbeingoutcome.Therefore,anincreaseinresiliencecapacityisexpectedtoreducevulnerability.

TheRIMAmodelhastwocomponents(FAO, 2016):

• Thedescriptiveanalysiscomponent,whichquantifiestheresiliencelevelofahouseholdatthatmomentusingtheResilienceCapacity Index (RCI). This canbeaggregatedatdifferentadministrativeunitsandprovideameasureofresiliencelevelofhouseholdsresidinginthoseadministrativeunits.

• Thecausalpartcomponentprovideseconometricregressionanalysesonthedeterminantsoftheresiliencecapacityandontheeffectsofshocks(bothhouseholdandcommunitylevelshocks)onfoodsecurity.

28

InRIMA-II,resilienceisestimatedfromcapacityvariablesthataregroupedintofourcategories,namely,AccesstoBasicServices (ABS),Assets (AST),SocialSafetyNets (SSN)andAdaptiveCapacity (AC).Table1summarizestheseaggregatedvariablestogetherwiththeindividualvariablesfromtheFSNMSsurveythatwereusedtocomputethem.

Table 1

Table2showsthefoodsecurityindicatorsthatwereemployedinthecausalanalysiscomponentoftheRIMA-IImodel.

Table 2

PILLARS OF RESILIENCE DEFINITION VARIABLES

ABS

ABS shows the ability of a household to meet basic needs, by accessing and effectively using basic services, such as sending children to school; accessing water, electricity and sanitation; selling products at the market.

Access to safe water; closeness to services such as water points, access to improved sanitation

AST

AST, both productive and non-productive, are the key elements of a livelihood, since they enable households to produce and consume goods. Examples of productive assets include land and agricultural index (e.g. agricultural equipment), while non-agricultural assets take into account the monetary value of the house where the household is located, and its appliances.

Household asset index(productive and non-productive assets); Land ownership; Tropical Livestock Units (TLU) per capita;

SSNSSN proxies the ability of the household to access formal and informal assistance from institutions, as well as from relatives and friends.

Access to credit; access to borrowing opportunities and frequency; access to transfers;

AC

AC is the ability to adapt to a new situation and develop new livelihood strategies. For instance, proxies of the AC are the average years of education of household members and the household perception on the decision-making process of their community.

Average education oh the household head; Number of Income sources; Dependency ratio (active/non-active members); Reduced Coping Strategy Index.

FOOD SECURITY INDICATORS DEFINITION

FOOD CONSUMPTION

PER CAPITA

Monetary value, expressed in SSP, of per capita food consumption, including bought, auto-produced, received for free (as gifts or part of a conditional project) and stored food.

HOUSEHOLD DIETARY

DIVERSITY SCORE (HDDS)

The number of unique foods (or food groups) consumed by household members over a given period

FOOD CONSUMPTION

SCORE (FCS)

Score calculated summing the weighted frequency of consumption of different food groups consumed by the household during the 7 days before the survey. The standard food groups and weights (in parentheses) are the following: main staples (2), pulses (3), vegetables (1), fruit (1), meat and fish (4), milk (4), sugar (0.5), oil (0.5) and condiments (0) (WFP, 2008).

29

4.2 Measuring the current state of resilience

ThissectionpresentstheresultsofresilienceanalysisatthestatelevelandthesevenPfRRpartnershipareas.

4.2.1 National-level resilience

Thissectionpresentstheresilienceanalysisbasedondatafromround22oftheFSNMSconductedinJuly/August2018usingtheRIMAIImethodology(Figure12).Overall,thesamplecontains7263households,outofwhich1196householdsarefromtheinsevenpartnershipareas.TheaverageRCI12fromallthesurveyedhouseholdsis29.3.TheRCIhadregionalvariationbyStatewithWarraphavingthehighestRCIof37.9andCentralEquatoria,thelowestRCIof 21.0.

Overall,assetsholdingisthemaindriverofresilienceacrossallstates.Productiveassetsincludingagriculturaltools,seedsforplanting,wheelbarrowsandgraingrindingtoolsaswellasthesizeoflandforcultivationownedbythehouseholdplayasignificantroleincontributingtoresilience.

Figure 12: Average resilience index by State, FSNMS R22 – August 2018

12 TheRCIiscalculatedformtheRIMA-IImethodology,whichisusedinthisreport.Resilienceisestimatedasalatentvariablefromfourpillars:ABS,AST,SNNandAC.Furtherinformationonthevariablesthatcompriseeachresiliencepillar,howtheyareestimated,andthefullRIMA-IImethodologycanbefoundinChaptertwoofthisreportunderCoverageandMethodology.RCIismeasureinascaleofmeasuredonascaleof0-100,0beingtheleastresilientand100beingthemostresilient.

30

4.2.2 Partnership area resilienceAmongthepartnershipareas,Bor(includingNorth,East,SouthandCentre)emergedastheonewiththehighestRCIs,whileWauhadthelowestRCI.TherespondentsinWauhavelowaccesstoSSNs,suchasborrowingandformalcash transfers.Thismaybeattributed tosustained insecurity, limitedmovementandhumanitarianaccesssince2016withextremedepletionoflivelihoods.SinceJuly2016crisis,mostareasofWauCountywerenotaccessibleuntillateDecember2017,resultinginlimitedaccesstohumanitarianassistance.However,therearepartsofWauCountythatarerelativelycalmandaccessibleenablinghumanitarianactorstooperatewell.

TherewerevariationsinthedeterminantsofresiliencecapacityasillustratedintheFigure13below.InAweil(North,East,South,WestandCentre),YambioandRumbek,theASTpillarplaysthemostsignificantroleindeterminingtheresiliencecapacityofhouseholdsatthatpointintimewhereasinWau,theRCIismostlydrivenbytheSSNs.TheASTpillarcomprisesproductiveassetsincludingagriculturaltools,seedsforplanting,wheelbarrowsandgraingrindingtools,aswellasthesizeoflandforcultivationownedbythehouseholdallofwhichplayaroleincontributingtoresilience.InToritandWaucounties,alongsidetheASTpillar,ACplaysthemostimportantrole,whereasinBor,itistheirACandrelativelybetterABS,whichisdrivingtheirresiliencecapacity.

Figure 13: Correlation of Pillar by CPA

Overall,theprimarysourceofself-reportedlivelihoodsisprincipallycropcultivationandsaleandlivestockkeepingand sale. This implies that a goodmeans of increasing livelihood resilience across all livelihoods is to reinforcehouseholdassets.Differentassetsmayassumeincreasedimportanceforcertainlivelihoods(forexample,householdsprimarilyengagedinlivestockproductionwouldbenefitdisproportionatelyfrominvestmentsinlivestockassets),buttheimportanceofassetsisintegralforall livelihoodprofilestofaceandovercomerisksandshocks.InvestmentsinbuildingAC,notablyincreasingincomediversificationandeducationalattainment,arealsokeymechanismsforbuildingresilienceamongsthouseholdsprimarilyengagedincropproductionandlivestockproduction.

31

4.2.3 Drivers of resilience in partnership areas

Tocapturedriversofresilience inadditiontopillarsandtheir respective indicatorsasdiscussedabove,estimationresults13arereportedinTable3,whereresilienceindexisregressedoverhouseholdsgender,ageandreligion,aswellas institutions,conflictandgovernance indices.TheTablealso indicatescountyspecificeffects.Evidenceofgenderunbalancewith respect to resiliencewasalso found; indeed, female-headedhouseholds tend toexperience lowerdegree of resilience compared to their male counterparts. During focus groups discussions, female respondentsemphasizedtheneedtocontroltheirownproductivecapacities.Theyexpressedtheprecarityofdependingontheirhusband’s salary.Despite resistance,manywomenand girls pursue their own vocations, as evident in the strongparticipationofwomenandgirlsacrossnumerouslivelihoodactivities.Nonetheless,equityandsecurityinhibitfemaleparticipation.Focusgroupdiscussionsindicatedthatsecurityisespeciallythreateningforwomentraders.They“can’ttravelbyroadtoadistantplaceinsafety.Crimesagainstwomenmakemostwomenfeartomakebusiness.”Inadditiontothreatsofviolence,socialpressurerestrainstheirfullparticipationintocommunitydevelopmentactivities.13 DerivedfromMSIdatagiventhatFSNMSdoesnotincludeinformationongovernanceandconflict.

DEPENDENT VARIABLE: RESILIENCE INDEX COEFFICIENT STD ERROR

FEMALE HEADED HH -0.087a 0.003

AGE (YEARS; DEFAULT: 25 YEARS OR LESS)

25-35 -0.011 0.007

36-55 -0.037a 0.007

>55 -0.062a 0.007

RELIGION (DEFAULT: CATHOLIC)

ANGLICAN 0.008c 0.004

PENTECOSTAL 0.007 0.005

ISLAM -0.008 0.011

ADVENTIST 0.025 0.016

INSTITUTIONS INDEX -0.014 0.016

CONFLICT INDEX<?> -0.019b 0.009

GOVERNANCE INDEX<?> 0.033a 0.009

COUNTY SPECIFIC EFFECT (DEFAULT: YAMBIO)

TORIT 0.082a 0.007

BOR 0.297a 0.006

WAU -0.041a 0.007

YEI 0.109a 0.006

RUMBEK EAST -0.196a 0.007

AWEIL -0.063a 0.007

INTERCEPT 0.409a 0.010

Table 3: Drivers of Resilience Beyond PillarsNote: a, b and c represent respectively significance at 1%, 5% and 10%.

32

Regarding age, the findings suggest that younger people have higher resilience index compared to older. Localleadersexpressedtheneedfortheyouthtocontributeinensuringfoodsecurityandprotectionofthecommunity;they praised youthorganizedwithin the community under supervision anddirection fromelders. Focus groupsdiscussionsalsoindicatethatsomeyouthactas“theadvisorstoyoungonesbyencouragingthemnottotakeabadway”(sometimesassociatedwithjoininggangs).Youthinvolvedintradeexpressedprideintheirwork,especiallygirlswhomanagedtopaytheirownschoolfees.

Compared toCatholic, there is no significant difference exceptAnglicanswho are creditedwithhigher levels ofresilience.

Asexpected,anincreaseinconflictprevalencehasthepotentialtosignificantlyreduceresilience.Severalrespondentscomplained how conflict has led to schools closing, raising costs and depleted remote communities of qualityteachers,andparentsof incomestopayschool fees.Additionally,orphanedchildren,afterconflicts,oftencannolongeraffordschoolfees.Severalcommentspointedoutthegovernment’sinabilitytomotivateteachers:becauseofpoorpayandlackofprotectioninremoteareas,hasforcedmanyschoolstoclose.Respondentsoftenpointouttotheparalysisofinsecurityforeconomicactivity,inhibitingtrade,preventingproducersfromworkinginmoreremotecroplandandcreatinganambianceoffear.Overall,householdscitedvarioustypesofconflictsincludingconflictsovernaturalresources,especiallyforestry,oilandwater.Householdsidentifiedlackoftrustandseriousnessastheprimarybottleneckstoconflictresolution,aswellasgreedanddishonestyamongconflictingparties,andexternalinfluence.

Figure 14: Community Rating of Overall Government Performance

Often overlooked in resilience building programmes, nonetheless, governance is major driver of communitylevel resilience. As reported in Table 3, improved community governance is associated with higher resilienceindex. Thesevenpartnershipareasgenerallyhaveapoorviewofgovernment services (Figure14).Householdscomplained about poor job creation, poor transportation infrastructure and lack of equity and poverty.

33

4.3 Drivers of changes in resilience

4.3.1 The case of the FAO SAFER project

TheSustainableAgricultureforEconomicResiliency(SAFER)ProgrammeinSouthSudanisanUSAID-fundedthree-yearlongprojectimplementedbyFAOinfourformerstatesofSouthSudan:Jonglei,Lakes,NorthernBahrelGhazalandWesternEquatoria.Theoverallgoaloftheprojectistoimprovetheresilienceofhouseholds,communitiesandagriculturesystems instressedandcrisis levelof food insecureregionsofSouthSudan.Thespecificoutcome isincreasedhouseholdfoodandnutritionsecurityandincomethroughincreasingproductionanddiversificationoflivelihoodsinamanner,whichcontributedtosustainabilityandfosterspeacefulco-existence.

Theproject is supporting livelihoodsandbuilding resilienceand recovery, byaddressinghousehold, communityandagriculturesectorlevelvulnerabilitiesthatleadtofoodandnutritioninsecurityamongresidentcommunities,returnees and IDPs.More specifically, the project addresses themain threats of conflict, climate and economicinsecurityby(i)restoringanddiversifyinglivelihood;(ii)restoringandstrengtheningagricultureproductionpractices;and(iii)strengtheningcommunityand intercommunalresourcesharingandmanagementpractices.

Toassessthe impactoftheprojectonhousehold’sresilience,usingRIMA-IImethodology,FAOcompletedsurveyacrossSAFERprojectlocationsbetweenJanuaryandFebruary2019.TheRCIwascalculatedandanalyzedwithrespecttoseveralfacetsofresilience,includinghouseholdhead,genderandcounties.

Overall,foodsecuritystatusasmeasuredbythefoodconsumptionscore(FCS)acrosstheprojectareasshowedanincreaseinfoodsecuritystatusatdifferentrates,with43percentofthehouseholdsacceptable,31percentborderlineand26percentpoorfoodconsumptionstatus.ThepercentageofhouseholdswithacceptableFCSincreasedby27.2percent.Inaddition,32.7percentofthehouseholdswerefoodsecure14intheprojectcounties.Householddietarydiversityacrosstheprojectareaalsoincreased,whichconfirmsthatoverthe24hoursperiod,onaverageprojecthouseholds consumed sixdifferent kindsof foods, compared to a four foodgroupsduringbaseline study. Thisconfirmsrelativelybetteraccesstoavarietyoffoodgroups.Positiveresultscanbeattributedtoprojectintervention(i.e.vegetablesproduction,livestockrearing,income-generatingactivitiesandvillagesavingsandloansassociations[VSLAs]) that ledto improvements inaccess todiversegoods, increasedfoodproductionand increased incomesenablingthemtobuymorefood.

Asresultof theproject interventionover twoyears, theoverallhouseholdRCI increasedby32percent fromthebaselinevalueof28.0.

ThemaindriversofresiliencewereASTandACholdingscomparedtoSSNandABS,thatareattributedtoprojectsupportwithproductiveandnon-productiveassetsandlivestockservicescomplementedbydiversificationofincomesources.The reduced relevanceofSSNasakeydriverof resilienceduringbaselinestudy implysustainabilityoftheprojectgiventhatthehouseholdsarereportingbetteradaptiveandabsorptivecapacitiesandincreasedassetholdingsasaresultoftheprojectintervention.

Productiveassetsandnon-productiveassetsaswellasTropicalLivestockUnits(TLU)contributedmosttotheASTpillar,whileinACpillarthetwomostimportantcontributorswerethenumberofincomesourcesandtheaverageyearsofeducationofthehouseholdhead.

Intermsofhouseholdresiliencebysexofhousehold-head,thefemale-headedhouseholdshadahigherresiliencecapacitythanthemale-headedhouseholds,andforbothtypesofhouseholds,SSNandABShadthemostcontributiontotheresiliencecapacity.

14 Foodsecurityindexclassificationisbasedonasimpleaverageofhouseholdfoodconsumptionscore,foodexpendituresharescoreandassetdepletionscore.https://resources.vam.wfp.org/CARI.

34

Figure 15.1: Overall Pillars Correlation, SAFER survey 2019

AreaswithhighestincreaseofRCIincludedJonglei(18.8percent)andWesternEquatoria(15.2percent),followedbyLakes(7.9percent)andNorthernBahrelGhazal(4.9percent).Concerningvariationsofhouseholds’resilienceacrossthecounties,TwicEastandBorSouthcountiesinJongleiandYambioCountyinWesternEquatoriawerefoundtobethemostresilient.Moreover,householdsincountiesthatbenefitfromprojectinterventionwerefoundtobebetteroffcomparedtootherhouseholdsnottargetedbytheproject.Themaindriversofresilienceintheseareaswereattributedtoimprovedaccesstowater,participationinfarmersgroups,accessto improvedtoiletsandaccesstocreditfacilities.

Themainvariablescontributing to foodsecuritystatusofahousehold,evaluated througha regressionanalysis,includeddistancetofacilities,accesstotoilets,householdassets,agriculturalinputs,percapitaTLU,accesstocredit,farmergroupmembershipandincreasenumberofincomesources.

With reference to determinants of household resilience capacity the study reveals that across the project areahouseholdsareexpose toprolongdry spell, floods, illnessor accidentanddeathofhouseholdmemberswhichadversely affects household’s resilience.

35

Figure 15.2: Change in RCI by Cluster

4.3.2 The case of the DFATD and DANIDA-funded FAO projects

ThissectionpresentsacasestudybasedontheRIMA-IIanalysisconductedintheToritpartnershiparea.Ahousehold-levelpaneldatawas collected fromFAOproject locations inDecember2017andagain inDecember2018. TwoprojectsfundedbytheGovernmentsofCanadaandDenmark,respectively,focusedonstrengtheningtheresilienceofhouseholdstofoodinsecurityandcommunity-basedlivelihooddevelopment.Thestudyidentifiedtheimportanceofdifferentpillarsandassociatedcontributingfactorsforhouseholdresiliencecapacitytofoodinsecurity. Italsoexamineddifferencesinresiliencecapacityandresiliencestructureovertime.

The results indicate an increase in resilience capacity by 26 percent (RCI from 31 to 39). This increase showsimprovementinhouseholdresiliencetofoodinsecurity.Analysisoftheoverallresiliencestructureindicatesashiftinthedriversoftheresiliencecapacityoverthetwoperiods.Lookingatthetwosurveys,theASTpillaristhemostimportantpillarofresilienceforToritpartnershiparea.In2017,theRCIwasmainlyattributedtoASTandACofthehouseholds.In2018,whiletheASTandACpillarsremainthekeydriveroftheresiliencecapacityofthehouseholds,anincreaseintherelevanceofSSNandABSisobserved.Theincreasedrelevanceofthesetwopillarscouldbetheresultofhouseholds’accesstocreditandborrowingopportunitythroughVSLAs,trainingonbusinessskills,financialgrantsandconstructionofmulti-purposewaterfacilities,bothforhumanconsumptionandagriculturalproductionactivities.

Asindicatedintheabovefigures,ASTisthefirstmostimportantpillarindeterminingtheresiliencecapacityofhouseholdsinthearea.Specifically,productiveandnon-productiveassetsarerelevantwhilelivestockownershipandcultivatedlandmakeonlyalimitedcontributiontoresiliencecapacity.IntermsoftheSSNpillar,participationofbeneficiariesinfarmerfieldschools,accesstocredit(VSLA)andbeingmembersoffarmergrouparekeyforbuildingresiliencehouseholdtofoodinsecurity.Ontheotherhand,fromtheadaptivecapacityperspective,trainingsandnumberofincomesourcesarethekeydriversofresilience.Insummary,AST,ACandSSNpillarsshowedthestrongestrelationshiptohouseholdresilience.Thesignificanceofthesethreepillarsincontributingtotheresiliencecapacityislikelyduetotheimplementationoftheprojectactivitiesinthearea.Thestudyalsoexaminedthevariationanddriversofresiliencebysexofhouseholdhead.AspresentedinFigure16.2below,female-headedhouseholdshavehigherresiliencecapacitythanmale-headedhouseholdsinthetwostudies,thoughthisdifferencenotbeattributedtothegenderofthehouseholdperse.

36

Figure 16.1: Correlation between RCI and the pillars over time

Figure 16.2: Difference in RCI disaggregated by gender of household head

37

4.3.3 Unpacking resilience and food security

Usingdatafromallsevenpartnershipareas,overallandasexpected,theresultsshowthatresiliencehasapositiveeffectonfoodsecurity(Figure17.1).Furthermore,theeffectofa1percentchangeinresilienceisslightlystrongerontheHouseholdDietaryDiversityScore(0.18)thanontheFCS(0.16).Resiliencealsopositivelyaffectsthenumberofcookedmealseatenduringthepreviousday.

Withrespecttopillars(Figure17.2),ABSandACpillarshavethehighestelasticitiescomparedtoSSNandAST.

Figure 17.1: Resilience Elasticities with Respect to Pillars

Figure 17.2: Food Security Elasticities with Respect to Resilience

38

Inanefforttobetterunderstandthelikelyimpactsofeffortstoimprovehouseholds’accesstoservicesandlivelihoodopportunities,IFPRIdesignedthreescenariostosimulatetheeffectsofchangesinthevaluesofvariablesconstitutingthepillars.Underthefirstscenario,anincreaseismadetotheABSbysimulating20percentincreasesinparticipationinvocationaltrainingandaccesstoagriculturalextensionservices,aswellasthescalemeasuringproximitytoprimaryschool.ThesecondscenariofocusesontheACpillars,simulating20percent increases intheaveragenumberofagriculturallivelihoodactivities,numberofnon-agriculturallivelihoodactivitiesandnumberofcroptypesplanted.Thethirdscenariocombinesthefirsttwo,simulating20percentincreasesinallofthevariablesmentionedabove.Themodeledrelationshipsbetweentheunderlyingvariables,thepillarstheycompose,theresilienceindex,andthefoodsecurityvariablesareusedtotesttheeffectsofchangesinvariablesonresilienceandfoodsecurity.

Table4showstheindicatorvaluesusedinthethreescenarios.The“Baseline”columnshowsthemeanvaluesforeachpillarvariableamongsamplehouseholdsfromthesevenpartnershipareas.Severalofthevariablesmeasuringaccesstoservicesarebinary,meaningthat“yes”responsestakeavalueofonewhile“no”responsestakeavalueofzero;thus,averagevaluesacrossthesamplealsoindicatetheshareofhouseholdsreportingaccesstoaparticularservice.Underthethreescenarios,thevaluesofselectedvariablescomposingtheABSandACareincreasedby20percentasdescribedabove;othervariablesretaintheirbaselinevalues.

Figure 17.3: Programming Scenarios

Figure 17.4: Impact of Conflict and Governance

39

TheresultsofthethreescenariosareshowninFigure17.3.Eachofthethreescenariosresultsinanincreaseintheresilienceindexaswellasinallofthefoodsecurityvariablescomparedtothebaselinevalues,indicatingthat,asexpected,increasesinABSandinACshouldincreasefoodsecurity.Thesecondscenario,whichsimulatesincreasesinAC,has largereffectsonall outcomevariables than thefirst scenario,which simulates increases inABS. ThisresultcontrastswiththehigherelasticityofresiliencewithrespecttotheABSpillarshowninFigure17.1.Itisworthrecallingthatthepillarsareconstructedindicesbasedonsetsofvariableswhichhavevaryingweightsinthepillars;eventhoughtheABSpillarasawholehasalargerimpactonresiliencethantheACpillar,theselectedACvariablesincludedinScenario2haveahigherimpactthanthevariablesincludedinScenario1.Scenario3hashighereffectsthaneitherScenario1or2,indicatingthecumulativepositiveeffectsofimprovementsinbothpillarareas.

UsingScenario3asabasis,wealsosimulatedtheimpactofbothconflict(Scenario4)andgovernance(Scenario5)onresilienceandfoodsecurity.AsshowninFigure17.4,while20percentchange ingovernance index increasesresilienceandfoodsecurity,similarincreaseinconflictintensityleadstoadeclineinresilienceaswellasfoodsecurity.

Table 4: Scenarios and Baseline

*0:none;1:15+km;2:10–14km;3:5–9km;4:lessthan5km**0:morethan2hours;1:1–2hours;2:30–59mins;3:15–29mins;4:lessthan15mins***0–None;1–Primaryorkhalwa;2–Secondary;3–Certificate;4–Diploma;5–Firstdegree;6–Postgraduate 

ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES VARIABLE DESCRIPTION SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 BASELINE

Participation in vocational training

Share of households reporting participation 0.118 0.098 0.118 0.098

Existence of agricultural extension workers

Share of households reporting knowledge of extension workers 0.144 0.120 0.144 0.120

Distance to primary school Average value on distance scale* 4.155 3.463 4.155 3.463

Access to a common open market

Share of households reporting access 0.769 0.769 0.769 0.769

Health facility provides free care

Share of households whose health facility provides free care 0.602 0.602 0.602 0.602

Time to reach the health facility

Average value on travel time scale** 2.395 2.395 2.395 2.395

Respondent satisfied with quality of health service

Share of households satisfied with quality of services received

at last visit0.547 0.547 0.547 0.547

ASSETS

Predicted number of cell phones Average number 0.138 0.138 0.138 0.138

Predicted number of beds Average number 0.656 0.656 0.656 0.656

Predicted number of tables Average number 0.508 0.508 0.508 0.508

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

Educational attainment of head

Average value on educational attainment scale*** 1.273 1.273 1.273 1.273

Number of agricultural livelihood activities Average number 2.974 3.568 3.568 2.974

Number of nonagricultural livelihood activities Average number 1.436 1.724 1.724 1.436

Number of formal employ-ers Average number 0.368 0.368 0.368 0.368

Number of crop types planted Average number 2.794 3.352 3.352 2.794

Access to information to warn about natural

disasters

Share of households reporting that they receive information 0.075 0.075 0.075 0.075

SOCIAL SAFETY NETWORKS

Access to remittances from South Sudan

Share of households receiving remittances 0.081 0.081 0.081 0.081

Access to remittances from outside South Sudan

Share of households receiving remittances 0.030 0.030 0.030 0.030

40

4.4 Gender and resilience

Despitecomprisingmorethan60percentofthepopulationinSouthSudan,deeplyengrainedpatriarchalculturalpractices,customarylawsandtheperceivedsubordinatestatusofwomencontinuetobepolitically,economicallyandsociallymarginalizedinthepre-andpost-independenceperiodsofthecountry’shistory.Oneconstant,salientaspectofthevolatilesituation inSouthSudanthatprecededthemostrecentoutbreakofcivilconflict isgender-based inequalities and the exclusion ofwomen from the conflict resolution, peacebuilding, and participation inlivelihoodsandeconomicprocesses.Yet,women,inthecontextofviolentconflictandhumanitariancrisiscontinuetobeespeciallyvulnerabletoviolentattacks,alongwithchildren,theelderly,thedisabled,andethnicorreligiousminorities.

StudiesinSouthSudanshowthat85percentofthepeoplewhouprootedfromtheirhomessincethestartoftheconflictin2013arewomenandchildren15.Further,duringthecontinuingcivilwar,numerousreportsoftargetedsexual violence against women have emerged, and asmillions of families flee their home, women increasinglyassumeresponsibilityofdependentfamilymembers.Thoughwomendonotrepresentamonolithicgroupwithasingularvoice,theyareasignificantdemographicofthepopulationandtheirlimitedcapacitytobuildtheirresilienceandtorecoverfromshockshavenegativesocialandeconomicimplicationsontheirhouseholds,communitiesandthenationat large.Tobuildandenhancepeople’s resilience inSouthSudan,analysisofsocialnormsandothersocietalfactorsthatmaintaingenderedpowerinequalitiesthatrestrictwomenandgirls’,aswellasboys’andmen’sabilitiestoreducetheirvulnerabilitytoshocksandstressesneedtobeunderstood.Consequently,adoptingagenderlenstoRIMAhelpstoachieveabetterunderstandingoftheextenttowhichmen,women,boys,girls,elderly,andthedisabledareaffectedandtheapproachwouldcontributetotheformulationofsoundlaws,policies,programmesandprojectsgearedtowardsenhancingpeople’slivelihoodsandthereforetheirresilience.

Thereisundisputedevidencethatgender-sensitiveresiliencepoliciesandprogrammesrecognizegenderinequalitiesasanobstaclethatmaydepriveonegroupofpeopleofthesamerightsandopportunitiesasanothermoreprivilegedgroup (withmostlywomensuffering fromthis lack/denial).Thepurposeof thissection is therefore tobring inagenderperspective tobuildingresilience,and tobetterunderstandgendervulnerabilities thataffectpeopleandcommunities capacities tobuild their resilience and recover from shocks.Discussedbeloware someof the keyfactorsaffectingwomen’scapacitiesforresilienceandrecovery.

4.4.1 Limited access to productive assets, resources and services

WomeninSouthSudanfacemanychallengesinaccessingproductiveassets,resources,andservices.Theirmobilityand participation in social and economic activities are highly restricted by patriarchal social norms and presentthemwith feweropportunities foreducation.AgenderanalysisconductedbyWorldVision International in2015inGreaterEquatoria,LakeStates,andNorthernandWesternBahrElGhazzal showthatonly39womenagainst367men interviewedhadaccess toeducationand information.Thisfinding is consistentwithnational statistics,whichrevealveryhighilliteracyratesamongwomen(82percent)comparedtomen.Limitedliteracyaffectswomen’saccesstoknowledgeandinformationaboutmarketopportunitiesandtheircapacitiestoenhancetheirincomesandlivelihoods.Further,thestudyalsorevealsthatmoremen(551)havecontrolandownershipoverlandcomparedtowomen(65percent).Consistentwiththis,astudyconductedbySearchforCommonGround(2017)revealsthatonly13percentofwomeninJuba,Bor,Wau,PageriandRumbekCentrewereawareoftheirlegalandconstitutionalrightstoownproperty.Thisstudyalsofoundoutthatonly10-20percentofthewomenhadmanagedtoregistertheirlandintheirnames.

The same trends can be observed for such productive resources as access to household income, credit/loans,household assets, where women have limited access to such important resources compared tomen. In termsofaccesstoservices, thestudyreveals thatveryfewwomen, (58percent)comparedtomen(528)hadaccesstoagriculturalextensionservices.ThefindingsofthisgenderanalysisisconsistentwithmanyotherstudiesinSouthSudanwhichrevealprofoundgenderinequalitiesbetweenmenandwomeninaccesstoandcontroloverproductiveresources.Thesestudiesalsodemonstrateshowlimitedaccesstoresourcesdeepensvulnerabilitiestoandthwartsalleffortsaimedatstrengtheninghouseholdandcommunityresilienceandrecovery.

15 HumanitarianNeedsoverview2018.

41

Figure 18.1: Access to productive assets resources and services

4.4.2 Women’s limited participation in productive economic activities

Limitedwomen’saccesstoproductiveresourcesandserviceshasalsomadeitverydifficultforthemtoparticipateinproductiveeconomicactivities.Asthefigurebelowindicates,only25percentofwomenparticipateineconomicactivitiescomparedto71percentofmen.Thistrendisalsotrueforboysandgirls,andsuggeststhatmoreboys(3.2percent)participateineconomicactivitiescomparedtogirls(0.80percent).Itisalsoimportanttonotethatduetoarmedconflicts,genderrolesinSouthSudanhavegreatlychanged.Acrossmuchofthecountry,anestimated58percentof thehouseholdshavewomenas their primary sourceof income, asmanyof the familymembershavediedduringconflictsandorarerecruited intoarmedgroups(GabyRojazPerez,2014). InagenderanalysisconductedbyCare International inBentiu in 2016,women reportedhavingbeenmarginalized from their usuallivelihoodsactivities,particularlyinthecaseofsmallbusinessesbyincreasedincidenceofharassmentbymenwhosometimesrefusetopayforservices/goods.Generally,thelimitedearningsthatwomenmakefromtheirbusinessesareprimarilydedicatedtofamilysubsistence,andhencenotsufficientforcapitalaccumulation.

Figure 18.2: Women’s Participation in Production Activities

42

RESILIENCE PROFILE – RESTORE PRODUCTION CAPACITIES

Women’s economic empowerment in Bor

Established in August 2018, Bor riverside fish marketing group includes 29 women and 1 man. The group, supported by FAO through the USAID-funded project, benefited from a number of trainings on business development, which allowed to build necessary skills to economically empower its members.

Ms Achol Ajang, 27 years old, is a group chairperson. Only in the last eight months (August 2018-March 2019) she was able to generate income equal to SSP 250 000 from retailing fish products. In the upcoming two months, characterized as peak season for the sale of dry fish products, she is expecting to generate over SSP 1 million. She had invested previously earned income to build a dry fish store, which she also rents so as to generate additional income.

Stitching a future together

Skilled hands are pushing the white fabric gently forward, while the needle jumps up and down, creating an impeccable edge finisher. The hands belong to Nyibol Bol, 25, who finished the tailor training one month ago. “I can sow up to three dresses per day”, she says with newly acquired confidence.

She used to be a farmer like many others in Aweil. Unpredictable rain and lack of seeds made it difficult to feed her two growing daughters, aged six and two. Under the joint recovery and resilience programme in Aweil, Nyibol was offered vocational training.

“Now, I earn money and can give my children what they need. They are healthier and happier, and so am I”.

Her shop in a small square not far from the main market has already attracted customers. Most tailors in South Sudan are males, thus Nyibol has been well received in the community. “You know, women prefer to talk to other women when it comes to clothes and fashion.”

It is June, also known as the slow season for tailors like Nyibol because people are farming, taking advantage of the seasonal rain.

“Yet, I have plenty of orders. I can’t wait for the Christmas rush to start though. From September to December everyone is having new clothes made for the holidays.”

Nyibol charges about 3500 SSD per dress. When fabric costs are deducted, she is left with about 3000. “I’m doing so well that I’m able to save some money every month. That will be helpful when my oldest one is going to school and for times when business is slower”.

“I’m so grateful for this opportunity, my family is stronger because of this”.

UN

ICEF

Sou

th S

udan

/Rye

ng

43

4.4.3 Women’s exclusion from leadership and decision-making processes

Eventhoughthetransitionalconstitutionguaranteesequalityofmenandwomen,widespreaddiscriminationagainstwomentranslatesintoinstitutionalobstaclesthatpreventthemfromaccessingthesameopportunitiesasmenandfromparticipating in leadership andexercisingdecision-makingpowersonanequal footingwithmen. In SouthSudan,womenareintricatelylinkedtoandarepartofthemanydriversofthenationalandcommunalconflicts.Notonlyarewomenandchildrenmorelikelytobevictimsofviolencebutissuescloselyrelatedtowomen,suchascattleraidingtopayforhighdowries,landdisputesaroundinheritancelawsthatprohibitthepassageoflandtowomenand tensions surroundingmarriage, areamong themostprominentdriversof intercommunal violence.Despitethis,womenremainunderrepresentedandremovedfrompeacebuildingeffortsandpeaceprocessesatnationalandcommunity level.For instance,currently,only12percentof themembersofparliament inSouthSudanarewomen.Thislackofengagementdemonstratesaclearfailurebysocietytorecognizewomen’srolesincontributingtoviolenceandpeacebuilding.

Figure 18.3: Women’s Representation in Parliament

4.4.4 Recurring instances of gender-based violence

InSouthSudan,GBVisrampant,pervasive,andtakesplaceinasituationwhereundertakingdailysurvivaltaskssuchascollectingfirewoodandwaterplaceswomenandgirlsunderthreat.Assuch,reportedcasesofGBVrepresentonlyatipofaniceberg.Inthefirsthalf2017alone,1324casesofGBVwerereported.Thesemainlyaffectedwomenandgirlswhorepresented95percentofthereportedcases.About19percentofsaidreportedcaseswerechildren.

ThemostcommonlyreportedcasesofGBVinSouthSudanare:thedenialofresourcesandopportunities,rapeorsexualassaultwhichrepresented18percentofallthecasesin2017,domesticviolencewith65percentofwomenacceptinghavingexperiencedviolenceatthehandsoftheirintimatepartners16,andalsoharmfulculturalpractices,includingearlyandorforcedmarriagesthatmakeup12percentofallcases.MostofGBVcaseslargelygounreportedduetolocalcustomsandattitudesthatprecludewomenfromaccessingjustice.GBVadverselyimpactsonsurvivors’abilitytoassertthemselves,tosecuretheirlivelihoods,buildtheirresilienceandtorecoverfromdifferenttypesofshocks.

AssociatedwithGBVisthephenomenonofearlychildmarriages.ChildmarriagesareverycommoninSouthSudanandisacommoncopingmechanismfortheeconomicrevivaloffamiliesincrisis.AccordingtotheHumanRightsWatch(2013),nearly7percentofwomenaged15to49marrybeforetheirfifteenthbirthday–asubstantialreductionfrom16.7percentin2006.However,45percentstillmarriedbeforetheageof18in2010,whichisanincreasefromthe2006averageof41percent17.Consideringtheoverallincreaseinthenumberofchildmarriagestakingplace,itcanbeassumedthatthenumberofteenagebirthswillincreaseinthecomingyears.Giventhehighrisksofpediatricpregnancies,thehumanitariancommunityshouldexpectthatthematernalmortalityratewillincrease.16 InternationalRescueCommittee,201117 MinistryofHealthandNationalBureauofStatistics,2013.

44

Figure 18.4: Cases of Gender-Based Violence reported in South Sudan

4.4.5 Limited access to sexual and reproductive health

Amongothers,protractedconflictsandthepoorperformanceoftheeconomyhaveweakenedtheSouthSudanesehealthsystems,whichcurrentlyfacessevereshortagesofhealthworkers,withpoorlyfunctioninghealthfacilities.SouthSudanhasamaternalmortalityratioof789deathsper100000livebirths,acontraceptiveprevalencerateofjust4.7percent,andateenagepregnancyrateof34.5percent.Alltheseindicatorshighlightthegravityofthehealthsystemsituation inSouthSudan. Further, thedestructionand lootingofhealth-care infrastructureand facilities,attacksagainsthealthworkersmean thataccess tohealth care is increasingly sparse, resulting in compromisedwomen’shealthandsurvivalduringchildbirth.

4.4.6 Recommendations for strengthening Women’s Resilience and Recovery

Despite the above described vulnerabilities, women and girls continue to play a vital role in unlocking thetransformativepotentialofdevelopmentassistanceandinachievinglong-termchange.Theyarekeyinstrengtheningthecapacityofhouseholdsandcommunitiestocopewith,adaptandpotentiallytransforminthefaceofshocksandstressors.Consequently,theimplementationofthefollowingrecommendationscouldgoalongwayinensuringthattheframeworkforresilienceandrecoverysupportstheeliminationofgenderinequalitiesandstrengthenswomen,men,boysandgirlsresilience.

InSouthSudananumberofstudiesshowthatwomenareintricatelylinkedtoandarepartofthemanydriversofthenationalandcommunalconflicts.Studiesalsoshowthattheprotectionandpromotionofhumanrights,theruleoflawandwomen’spoliticalparticipationarefundamentalattributesofresilientsocieties,andarenecessaryfortheempowermentofwomenandgirls18.Consequently,inordertoeffectivelycontributetotheconsolidationofpeaceinSouthSudan,thePfRRwillhavetoenhanceagreaterparticipationofwomeninpositionsofinfluence,inleadershipandpeacebuildingprocessesatnational,stateandcommunitylevels.Toeffectivelyachievethis,thePfRRwillhaveto invest instrengtheningwomen’sorganizationsandmovementsas thishas thepotential tocontribute toself-organization,whichisoneofthemainattributesofresilientsocieties.

Further, asanestimated58percentof thehouseholdsacross the countryhavewomenas theirprimary sourceof income, thissuggests thatastep towardsstrengtheningwomen’s resilienceandrecovery is likely to translateto community resilience against shocks and stresses. To effectively achieve this, the framework for partnershipfor resilience and recovery will have to work towards increasing women’s access to economic resources and18MayeshaAlamSégolèneDufour-GennesonRebeccaTurkington(2014)Security,BasicServicesandEconomicOpportunityin SouthSudan:PerspectivesofWomenPost-IndependenceandPre-CivilWar 

45

opportunities.Thisisessentialforlivelihooddiversification,aswellastoensurethatwomenhavetheflexibilityandtheautonomyneededtoadapttochangingcircumstances.Strengtheningwomen’saccesstoagriculturalextensionservices,buildingtheirskillsinbusinessandfinancialmanagement,enhancingtheiraccesstocreditandloans,andsupportingtheirparticipationinagri-business,valuechainsandproductivemarketswillalsogoalongwaytowardsbuildingresilienceandrecoverynotonlyathouseholdlevelsbutalsoatcommunity,stateandnationallevel.

Women’slimitedaccesstohealthfacilitiesandservicesnotonlyunderminestheircapacitytocontributeandbenefitfromdevelopment,butitalsoundermineseffectorstowardssocialinclusions.Assuch,thePfRRmustalsostrengthenwomen’saccesstohealthcare,nutritionandeducationisasthesearecornerstonesofinclusion,neededtosustainlong-termchange.Finally,intermsofprogrammingtherewillbeneedtoensurethattheframeworkforresilienceandrecoveryincorporatesgendersensitiveindicators,andthatsexandgenderdisaggregateddataisavailabletomeasureprogressandimpactoftheframeworkonpeopleofdifferentgendercategories.

46

VULNERABILITY

5.1 Vulnerability definitions and framework

Likeresilience,anumberofdefinitionshavebeenprovidedforvulnerability.Thesedefinitionsgenerallyrelatetoaproductofexposureandresilience.Thethreecomponentsofvulnerability,accordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)definitionare:exposure,sensitivityandadaptivecapacity.Vulnerabilityfocusesonsystems,placesandactivities,someonindividuals,livelihoods,sectors,landscapes,andecosystems.Iftheseaspectsconsideredarenotresilienttotheexposuretoashockorstressandhavenoadaptivecapacity,thentheybecomevulnerable. However, it should be noted that resilience is not an inverse of vulnerability. Related to resilience,vulnerabilityisdefinedasthepropensitytofallbelowawellbeing(e.g.consumption,foodsecurity)threshold,ortobeadverselyaffectedinsomewayrelativetoothers.

Therefore,householdresiliencetofoodinsecurityisdefinedasahousehold’sabilitytomaintainacertainlevelofwellbeing(i.e.foodsecurity) inthefaceofrisks,dependingontheoptionsavailabletothathouseholdtomakealiving,andonitsabilitytohandlerisks.Definingresilienceinrelationtofoodinsecurityandmalnutritiondeterminesthemethodologyusedtomeasureit(FAO,2009).

Definitions of Vulnerability

• Vulnerability is the inability toresistahazardor torespondwhenadisasterhasoccurred.Theconditionsdetermined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes, which increase thesusceptibilityofanindividual,acommunity,assetsorsystemstotheimpactofhazards(UNISDR,2016,p24).

• Thepropensityorpredispositiontobeadverselyaffected.Vulnerabilityencompassesavarietyofconceptsandelementsincludingsensitivityorsusceptibilitytoharmandlackofcapacitytocopeandadapt(IPCCGlossary,2014,p.128).

• Vulnerabilityisthestateofsusceptibilitytoharmfromexposuretostressesassociatedwithenvironmentalandsocialchangeandfromtheabsenceofcapacitytoadapt(W.NeilAdger,2006).

• Vulnerabilityas“characteristicsofapersonorgroupintermsoftheircapacitytoanticipate,copewith,resist,andrecoverfromtheimpactofnaturalhazards”.(Blaikieetal.,1994)

A combination of factors that have been persistently high orworsening over time are driving vulnerability andaffecting thehouseholds’ abilities to build their resilience. These factors include climate variability and change,conflict (political and natural resource-based), poor social services and an expansion in urban settlements, andmacro-economic risks and global factors (Figure 19).

47

Figure 19: Interacting factors of Vulnerability / Source: South Sudan Integrated Context Analysis, 2018

5.2 Vulnerability trends

5.2.1 Environmental risk, rainfall and droughtTheimpactofnaturalshockstolivelihoodsinSouthSudanhavemoreoftenbeenovershadowedbytherecurringlocalizedandpoliticalconflict.Meteorologicalandagriculturaldroughts19 impact livelihoodsdifferentlywithinthecountry.

AnanalysisofmeteorologicaldroughtsusingthestandardizedprecipitationindexovertheMay-Octoberrainyseason,from2013to2017,didnotrevealseveredroughtconditions(below-1.00)exceptfor2016.However,ananalysisofinter-annualrainfallvariabilityinthelastfiveyearsidentifiedareaswherevariationcouldjeopardizelivelihoodactivities.Asaresultofclimatechange,theseasonalpatternsarechanging,andrainfallisbecomingerraticespeciallyinrain-fedagriculturalareas.Ananalysisoftherainfallperformanceoverthemaingrowingseasonsfrom1981to2015inbimodalareasinthesouthofthecountryshowthatMarch/April–JuneandAugust-NovemberrainfalllevelshavebeenonthedeclineinmostoftheagriculturalareasingreaterEquatoriaandWesternBahrelGhazal,butwitharelativelymoderatecoefficientofvariation(<30percent)(Maps1and2).Similarly,theJune-Septemberrainsthatsupportproduction inotherpartsof thecountryarealsoonthedeclinewithmoderatevariability.Thedecliningrainfall trendobservedduringthemainseasonsmayhavecompromisedcropproduction(quantityproduced). Itmayhavealso impactednegativelyonwaterandpastureavailability, therebyaffecting livestockproductivityandconsequentlyhouseholdfoodsecurity.VulnerabilitytoagriculturaldroughtsontheotherhandismoderatetohighinpartsofJonglei,Unity,UpperNile,andNorthernandWesternBahrelGhazal(Map3)mostlikelyowingtoeffectsofdryspellsthataffectvegetationcondition20.

19 Droughts:isaperiodofbelow-averageprecipitationinagivenplaceleadingtoaprolongedshortageinitswatersupply,whetheratmospheric,surfacewaterorgroundwater,whilstagriculturaldroughtscharacterizedbybelow-averagegrowingconditions.20 GreaterHornofAfricaClimateRiskandFoodSecurityAtlas,ICPAC/WFP2018.

48

Map 1: March-June 1981-2015 rainfall variability Map 2: August - November 1981-2015 rainfall variability

Map 3: Vulnerability to agricultural drought risk

Source: Greater Horn of Africa Climate Risk and Food Security Atlas, 2018 and Integrated Context Analysis

Low-lyingareasofSouthSudaninproximitytothemainriversarepronetoflooding(Maps4and5).CountiesthatareunderhighriskoffloodingareRenk,Manyo,UlangandLuakpiny/NasircountiesinformerUpperNileState;Borsouth,UrorandAkoboinformerJongleiState;AweilEastCountyinformerNorthernBahrelGhazalState;Twic,TonjEastandTonjWestinformerWarrapState;andGuit,RubkhonaandMayominformerUnityState(Map2).RecordedfloodeventsbytheEmergencyEventsDatabase(EM-DAT)showthatabout600000peoplewereaffectedbyfloodsin2013,whileanestimated300000wereaffectedin2010(Figure20).

49

Figure 20: Number of People affected by Past Floods in South Sudan

Source: EM-DAT

5.2.2 Production and Food Gaps

The2018JointFAO/WFPCropandFoodSecurityAssessmentMission(CFSAM)Reportrevealsthatinthetraditionalfarmingsector,theaggregatecerealharvestedareaduringtheyear2018isestimatedat882862ha,2.4percentabovethepreviousyear’s level.Theslightexpansioninharvestedareaisduetoaminorincreaseinthenumberoffarminghouseholds,followingsomelocalizedsecurityimprovements,whichencouragedvoluntaryreturningofdisplacedfarmers.However,theconflictcontinuestoseverelyaffectagriculturalactivitiesconstrainingaccesstofieldsandtheoverallharvestedareain2018remainedwellbelowthepre-conflictlevel.Atsubnationallevel,harvestedareaincreasedinWesternBahrelGhazal(8.4percent),Jonglei(5.6percent),EasternEquatoria(3.8percent),Lakes(3.3percent),NorthernBahrelGhazal(3percent)andWesternBahrelGhazal(1.75percent)states.Bycontrast,areductionintheharvestedareahasbeenrecordedinCentralEquatoria(-5.6percent),Unity(-3.7percent)andUpperNile(-3.2percent)statesduetopersistingsevereinsecurity.

50

Map 4: Flood risk areas and frequency Map 5: Spatial distribution of flood risk

Source: United Nations Environmental Programme Global Risk Data Platform Source: Greater Horn of Africa Climate Risk and Food Security Atlas, 2018 and Integrated Context Analysis

Accordingtothe2018CFSAMReport,the2018netcerealproductionfromthetraditionalsector,afterdeductionofpost-harvestlossesandseeduse,isestimatedatabout745000tonnes,15.5percentbelowtheaverageofthepreviousfiveyearsand2.5percentlessthan2017.Itisthesmallestoutputsincethestartoftheconflict.Thedecreaseinthe2018estimatednationalproduction,despitetheslightincreaseincultivatedarea,ismainlyduetounfavourableweatherconditions,with recurrentandprolongeddry spellswhichaffectedcropyields,especially inCentralandEasternEquatoriaandWarrapstates.Mildtomoderatelevelofpestinfestations,includingFallArmyworm,contributedtothereductionofyields.CerealproductiondeclinedfromthepreviousyearinCentralEquatoria(-21.6percent),Warrap(-9.9percent)andUpperNilestates(-9.3percent).Bycontrast,increasesofproductionareestimatedinJonglei(+9.9percent)andNorthernBahrelGhazalstates(+4.2percent).

Withamid-2019projectedpopulationofabout11.56millionpeople,consumingonaverageabout110kgofcereals/capita/year,thecerealrequirementofSouthSudanin2019isestimatedatabout1.27milliontonnes.Accordingly,anoverall rounded cerealdeficit of about524000 tonnes is estimated in the traditional sector for the January-December2019marketingyear,12percentabovethedeficitestimatedfor2018.DetailsofcerealproductiontrendsandconsumptiondeficitsareshowninFigures21.1,21.2and21.3,andTable5.

51

Figure 21.1: Cereal production estimate for South Sudan (2014 - 2018) / Source: CFSAM Report, 2018

Figure 21.2: South Sudan - Estimated cereal surplus/deficit, 2015-2019 (tonnes) / Source: FAO South Sudan

52

Table 5: Estimated cereal surplus/deficit, 2015-2019 (tonnes)

Figure 21.3: South Sudan - Cereal production trends by region – South Sudan (2014 – 2018)

53

AsisindicativewithinFigures21.2-21.3,cerealcropproductionhasbeeninpersistentdeclineforthelastfiveyears.Themaincerealproducedissorghum(72percent),followedbymaize(20percent).Alsomillet,riceandotherscerealsareproduced.WhilethedecreaseinproductionisdramaticintheEquatoriaregion,productionlevelshavelargelyremainedstableintheBahrelGhazalregion(withintherangeof500000tonnes),mainlyduetotherelativelycalmsituation.However,intheUpperNileregionthereisrelativelylittlecropproduction(about100000tonnes)duetodisruptedlivelihoodsbytheconflict,therehasbeenaslightincreasesovertime.Asshowninfigure21.3,thedeclineofcerealproductionintheEquatoriaregionissignificant(decliningfromcloseto720000tonnesin2014toamere300000tonnesin2018)resultinginasubstantialdownturnintheregion’sshareofnationalproduction.Theregionproduced55percentofthenationalproductiontotal,in2018contributingonly34percent.Conflict,displacementanddryspellshavegraduallydisruptedagriculturallivelihoodsanderodedthepositiveimpactofalreadymeagreharvestsintheGreaterEquatoriaregion.

Asmentioned,interactingfactorsashaveresultedinacontinueddecreaseinagriculturalproductioninSouthSudan.Atthesametime,thedemandforcerealshasbeenontherise,thuswideningthedeficit,whichhashadtobefilledthroughfoodassistanceandcommercial imports (Figure21.4).Foranexample in2018,commercial taxedcerealimportswereestimatedtohavefilled34percentofthefoodgapof482000tonnes.Theremainderofthegapwasfilledwithfoodimportsandotherdonations21.Theincreasedfoodgapcoupledwiththedepreciatedexchangerateandshortagesofforeigncurrencyhaveputpressureoncommercialimportsoffood,thusincreasingthedemandforhumanitarianassistancefrom2013-2017.Atcountylevel,mostcountiespreviouslycategorizedasfacinghighfoodinsecurityexperiencedaproductiondeficit,includingsomecountiesintheGreaterEquatoriaregion,whichthemainproductionarea.Thesedeficitsaremainlyattributedtoeffectsofinsecurityandconflicts.

Figure 21.4: Cereal gap, requirements and net production / Source: FAO/CFSAM, 2018

21 WFPMarketsreport,January2019.

54

FAO’s Efforts Towards Building a Resilience Seed System South Sudan

SeedisanimportantinputinthelivesmanyfarmhouseholdsinSouthSudan.Farmhouseholdsareseedsecurewhentheyhaveaccesstogoodqualityseedofsuitablevarietyatrighttimeforplanting.Thesupplyofseedbothinqualitativeandquantitativetermsisdeterminedbythephysical,organizationalandinstitutionscomponents,andtheiractionsandinteractions,whichdefinestheseedsystem.InSouthSudan,bothseedandfoodsecurityareunderminedanumberoffactors.Thesefactorsincluderecurrent conflicts and civil unrest resulting into economic crisis, poor access and infrastructure;naturaloccurrencessuchasfloodsandprolongeddryspellsordroughtdrivenbyclimatevariabilities;andbioticconstraintsandenvironmentfactors.

RESILIENCE PROFILE – RESTORE PRODUCTION CAPACITIES Planting seeds of the future

Idris Hussein bends down into what looks like a huge green velvet carpet. He soon returns with an okra, almost the size of a cucumber. “These are keeping my children healthy and sending them to school” he says with a grin.

He is a father of six children. The youngest one six years-old, the oldest a grown man at 21. This patch of land has changed their lives. “Before, life was very unpredictable. I never knew when we would run out of food or if I had enough money to buy medicines if one of my kids got sick”.

Supported through the joint recovery and resilience programme in Aweil, Idris was provided with seeds. Okra, tomatoes, Sokoma, Simsim and eggplants. He found himself a patch of land and started planting, yielding immediate results.

“Every third day I harvest 3-4 buckets of okra. In the market, I get about 2,500 SSD ($9) for one bucket”.

The crops have not only taken away Idris’ daily anguish, also other fathers have regular income as a result. The land has proven so fertile that he needs helps with the farming, creating four new jobs.

“However, there is no such thing as removing all your worries,” Idris laughs.

“I’m a father of six. I always worry. But my children are less sick, I have money for school fees and we have enough food. I worry less and can better handle what’s next to come”.

UN

ICEF

Sou

th S

udan

/Rye

ng

55

FAOEmergencyLivelihoodandResponseProgramme (ELRP): Inorder toaddressvulnerabilityof farmhouseholdstoseed insecurityarising fromacombinationnaturalandhuman-madecrises, theELRPhasbeenat the forefrontof providing assorted crops seed that are short-maturing anddrought-tolerant throughdirect distributionof highimprovedyieldinganddiseasetolerantvarieties.FAOrecognizesthewidediversityofcropandvarietiesacrossthevariousagro-ecologiesofSouthSudan.Besidesdirectdistributionofimprovedvarieties,especiallyinareaswhereseedislocallyavailablebutaccessisanissue,FAOusestheseedfairapproachtoensurethatthemostvulnerablefarmhouseholdswithlimitedcapacitytoaccessseedoftheirchoiceareprovidedwithseed.Thisaccountstobetween14and20percentoftheseedprovidedtoabout60000to100000householdsinemergencyneedforseed(Figure22.1).

Figure 22.1 Assorted Crop Seed Provided by FAO through Seed Fairs and Direct Distributions in 2018

Theseedfairapproachprovidedvoucherswithpredeterminedmonetaryvaluetothevulnerablewhothenexchangethemwithseedoftheirchoicefromvettedvendorsatafairplace.Thisapproachenhancesnotonlyaccesstoseedbutprovidesopportunitiesforexchangeofinformationbetweenvendorsandbeneficiariesaswellcreateslongertermrelationshipsbetweenthevendorsandtheirpotentialfutureseedcustomers.Accesstoinformationisastrongprecursortobuildingresilienceoftheseedsystem.

Thecommunity-basedseedproductionandsupply(CBSPS):FAOinpartnershipwithanumberNGOsandgovernmentlineministriesatnationalandstatelevelshavebeenimplementingCBSPSinitiativestoincreaseavailability/supplyofqualityseedofadaptedandpreferredcropvarieties.TheCBSPSusesmostlyfarmergroupsandindividualprogressivefarmers,providingthemwithtrainingsandinputsrequiredtosupportproductionandprocessingofqualitycropsseedsuchasmaize,sorghum,rice,beans,cowpea,sesame,cassavaandsweetpotato.Onayearlybasis,thishasbeenacontributionbetween1000to1600tonnesofassortedqualitycropsseed(Figure22.2),someoftheseseedsarechanneledtothevulnerablepopulationthroughtheseedfairsordirectseedpurchaseanddistribution.

TheeffortsbyFAOtosupportCBSPSinlocationssuchasMorobo/YeiCountyinformerCentralEquatoriaandMagwiinformerEasterEquatoriastatesbetween2008and2011,andwiththecomingofAllianceforaGreenRevolutioninAfrica(AGRA)tosupportprivateseedcompaniesin2011resultedintoemergencyofcompaniessuchastheGreenBelt,GenerationSeedCompanyandMagwiSeedCompany,ensuringthatbetterqualityseedaremadeavailableandaccessibletothecommunitiestheyserve.

Collaborativeagriculturalresearchefforts:Currently,FAOiscollaboratingwiththeConsultativeGrouponInternationalAgriculturalResearch (CGIAR) centresand theDirectorateofResearch,MinistryofAgricultureandFoodSecuritytoensurethenewvarietiesofhighyieldpotentials, tolerancetoanumberofabiotic,bioticstressesandclimatevariabilitiesaremadeavailable.Thisisbeingdonethroughsupporttoon-stationtrails,on-farmparticipatoryvarietyselection,andmultiplicationofvarietiesidentifiedbythefarmersorthosethathaverecentlybeenreleased.

56

Figure 22.2: FAO Supported community-based seed production / Source: FAO South Sudan

5.2.3 Food Consumption

ComparisonsofRound20(July–Aug2017)andRound22(July–Aug2018)FSNMSdatashowthatwhiletheproportionofhouseholdsclassifiedasseverelyfoodinsecureincreasedfrom24to29percentbetween2017and2018,othermeasuresweremoreindicativeofageneral improvement.Severitydeclinedinthesevenpartnershipareasfrom32to29increasewithdeclinedgeographicalspreadfrom2017.Multi-sectoralhumanitarianassistanceplusrelativestabilityinthecountrymighthavecontributedto“positive”outcomes,thoughthenumberofpeopleinIPCPhases3,4and5areatarecordhigh.BestimprovementsinFCSwereobservedamonghouseholdsreceivingfoodassistance1andthosewhichownlivestock.

Accordingtotheanalysis,severelyfoodinsecurehouseholdsin2018weremorelikelyto:havenoeducation,havenoland,beareturnee,befemale-headedandhavenolivestock.Inaddition,ComparedtoRound20,theprofileofbeneficiaryhouseholdsinRound22wereincreasinglylikelyto:haveaccesstoimprovedwater,reportagricultureastheirmainlivelihoodand,haveahighdependencyratio.Furthermore,profilesofFAOnonagri-inputbeneficiaryhouseholdsinRound22wereincreasinglylikelytobemoredependentonhumanitarianassistance(safetynet)andhavebetteradaptivecapacities(includingcoping).

ClusteringanalysisallowedforthecreationofgroupstotracebetweenRound20andRound22.ConsistentwithearlierfindingsthatIDPs/returneehouseholds,thosewithoutlivestockandwithoutlandweremostvulnerable.Ingeneral,evenwhilethefoodsecuritysituationinSouthSudanappearstohavemodestlyimprovedbetween2017and2018,theintensityandlevelsofvulnerabilityarehigh.Householdsofmostconcernincludethosewithnoland,nolivestock,female-headedandIDP/returnees.Thechangeinbeneficiaryprofilebetween2017and2018suggeststhattargeting(bothfoodassetandagri-input)mightbeincreasinglyfavouringthosewithbetteraccess(e.g.improvedwater,infrastructure,education,etc.),howevermoreanalysisofdataneeded.

57

Figure 23.1-23.2: Food Consumption Scope per FSNMS Round (20 and 22); Characteristics of Severely Food Insecure Households

5.2.4 External displacement

BetweenOctober andDecember 2018 the number of refugees appreciably declined for the first time since thestartoftheconflictin2013,byabout10percentfrom2.47million(Figure24).Outofatotalof1.76millionIDPs,anestimated260000peoplearelivinginthePoCsites.Theinabilityofmostofthesehouseholdstoparticipateinlivelihoodactivitiesandsupport themselveshas increased thevulnerabilityof thepopulationofSouthSudan.

Figure 24: South Sudan: External Displacement, 2014-2018 (millions of people)

5.2.5 Markets and terms of trade

NominalfoodpriceshavebeenincreasingsincethedevaluationoftheSouthSudanesepoundinDecember2015.Thecostofmostmarketcommodities(whitemaizegrain,whitesorghum,cookingoil,petrol)haveincreasedabovefive-yearaveragesovertheyearsinmostmajortowns(Figure25.1).TheincreaseisattributedtocontinueddepreciationoftheSouthSudanesepoundagainsttheUnitedStatesdollar, interruptedsupplybyconflictsandinsecurity,theinabilityoftraderstoimportadequateamountoffoodandincreasingtransportationduetotheriseoffuelprices.Thishascontributedtotheincreasedvulnerability.

58

Figure 25.1: Trends in sorghum prices (SSP/malua) / Figure 25.2 Terms of trade between goat and cereals (malua/goat)

59

5.3 Status of vulnerability The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Foodinsecurityanalysisreliesoncounty-levelIPCdatafortheperiod2014-2018.Overall,theproportionofpeoplefacingseverefoodinsecurity(Phase3orworse)inSouthSudanhasincreasedfrom19percentinSeptember2014to58percentinSeptember2018(Figure26.1).Theabsolutenumberoffoodinsecurepeoplepeakedin2017and2018.Householdsofmostconcernincludethosewithnoland,nolivestock,female-headedandIDP/returnees.Thenumberofseverelyfoodinsecurepeopleinthelastfiveyearsrangedbetween2.1and6.1millionwithanoverallaverageof4.4million,whichreflectsthenumberofpeoplewhoareeither(a)consistentlyorrecurringlyfoodinsecureor(b)haveexperiencedfoodinsecurityatsomepointbecauseofaspecificshock.Thisfiguregivesanoverallestimateforlonger-termplanning.

Figure 26.1: National IPC Trends (Sept 2014 to Sept 2018) / Source: IPC Analysis, 2014 – 2018.

Theabovefigurealsoshowsthatgivencurrentdeliverycapacityofhumanitarianassistance,IPCPhase4(Emergency)hasgenerallystabilizedeventhoughithasdoubledsince2016,butPhase3(Crisis)isincreasingatasignificantrate,withmajorityofthenewlyfoodinsecurecomingfromPhase2(Stressed)andPhase1(Minimal).

According to the trend analysis of IPC from2014 to 2018, irrespective of the seasonal performances andotherfactors,about2.8millionpeoplearepersistentlyfoodinsecure(chronicallyfoodinsecure)(Figure26.1).Thesegroupsofmostvulnerablepopulationshouldbetargetedwithsocialsafetynetsthatprovidepredictablesupporttomeettheirnecessities including foodneedsandat thesame timebuilding their resilience.Theanalysis furthershowsthatmorethan1.6millionadditionalpeopleareatrisk(acutelyfoodinsecure)duetorecurrentshocks.Thisisthepopulationthatshouldbetargetedwithresiliencebuildinginterventionstoensurethattheyhavethecapacitytowithstandadversestressorsandshocks,whichshouldnothavelong-lastingadversedevelopmentconsequences.The trendanalysis further showshigh food insecurity levels inmost countiesof Jonglei,Unity,NorthernBahrelGhazal,WesternBahrelGhazal,UpperNilestatesandJubainCentralEquatoria.CountieswiththehighestaverageprevalenceofseverefoodinsecurityincludeJuba(CentralEquatoria),AweilNorth,AweilWestandAweilEastfollowedbyWau(formerNorthernandWesternBahrelGhazalstates)Twic,Rubkhona,GogrialWest(formerUnityState)Uror,Luakpiny/Nasir,(formerJongleiandUpperNilestates)(Map6).

60

Map 6: Number of Chronically Food Insecure People, Sept 2014 – Sept 2018

Source: South Sudan Integrated Context Analysis, WFP, Dec 2018.

Among the partnership areas, the areaswith highest resilience capacity (like Bor South, Torit, andAweilNorth)are relativelywith lowest food insecurity andhave an improved access to humanitarian resourceswithpositiveimplicationonresilienceforpartnership.Inrecenttimes,YeiandWauhaveregisteredhighfoodinsecuritywithverylowresiliencecapacity,indicatinganescalatedconflictsituationwithlimitedmovementandhumanitarianaccess.However,overallNorthernBahrelGhazalisrelativelypeaceful,thusallowingforimprovedpartnershipinthisarea.

61

Figure 26.2: IPC Trends in the Seven Partnership Areas (Jan 2015 to Jan 2019)

Source: IPC Analysis, 2015 – 2019.

As shown above, the five-year period IPC analysis (January 2015 – January 2019) indicates that themajority ofpopulationinthesevenpartnershipareasarerelativelyinaminimalandstressedsituationcomparedwiththerestofthecountry.Thereis,however,asimilartrendwiththerestoftheothercountiesinthatthenumberofpeoplewhoarecategorizedinCrisis(IPCphase3)increasedduringthelastthreeyears.However,amongthepartnershipareas,Yambiostandsoutastheareawithminimalfoodinsecurity.

Figure 26.3: Percentage of Food-Insecure Households in the Partnership Areas (2018)

63

64