report... · web viewit slipped to an intraday low of 10,290 before closing the day 6 points higher...
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Shield Research
Weekly Report 09th April to 13th April 2018.
Upcoming Week Nifty Movement:
The Nifty which started on a muted note managed to recoup losses and closed with gains of just six points but above its crucial psychological support level of 10300 on Friday. It made a Doji type of pattern on the daily chart while a bullish candle for the weekly charts for the week ended 6 April.
Nifty closed the week on positive note gaining around 2.10%.
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Shield ResearchThe index which made a Bullish Marubozu candle on the daily charts on Thursday consolidated in a narrow range on Friday and made an indecisive candlestick pattern on the daily charts.
The Nifty index opened at 10,322 and rose to an intraday high of 10,350 which is close to its 50-DEMA. It slipped to an intraday low of 10,290 before closing the day 6 points higher at 10331 on Friday.
“However, on the weekly charts, a decent bullish candle was registered for the second consecutive week suggesting that momentum is slowly shifting in favour of bulls and once Nifty registers a firm close above 10350, where 50-days EMA average levels are placed, then it can act as some sort of confirmation for bigger moves to be achieved in the near term may be towards 10650 kind of levels,”
As we have mentioned last week, that resistance for the index lies in the zone of 10200 to 10276 where long term moving averages are lying. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 10350 to 10480 where short & medium term moving averages and highs for the month of March-2018 are lying. During the week the index manages to hit a high of 10350 and close the week around the levels of 10331.
Support for the index lies in the zone of 10227 to 10141 where break out levels and medium term moving averages are lying. If the index manages to close below these levels then the index can drift to the levels of 10047 to 9951 where the index has taken multiple supports in the month of September-2017 & October-2017 and long term moving averages are lying.
Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 10420 to 10500 from where the index has opened gap down. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 10620 to 10700 from where the index broke down after consolidation.
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Shield ResearchBroad range for the week is seen from 9951 on downside & 10700 on upside.
The factors at play this week:
A trade war is building as President Trump raises potential tariffs on Chinese goods to $150 billion.
The employment report for March was weaker than expected as nonfarm payrolls rose by just 103,000.
Fed Chief Jerome Powell confirmed that Federal Reserve remains on the path of gradual rate hikes.
Indian capital markets are not secluded from the global markets. Hence we feel there would impact on Indian equities. Financial instability would be a result from intensification of the ongoing trade war and the unwinding of the easy monetary policy by developed nations. Higher tariffs can force the countries to devalue their currency to make their exports competitive which can have a negative effect. We believe that the ongoing trade war cannot go long as it would have serious repercussions in the respective economies. There has to be some amicable solution which would even out the worries of market participants.
According to market observers, the domestic equity markets reacted to intensifying trade war fears after China announced additional tariffs on US goods as countermeasures to the US administration's proposed tariffs covering Chinese exports worth $50 billion with a suggested tariff rate of 25%. China strongly condemns and firmly opposes the US tariff proposals and is ready to take countermeasures on US products, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) in China said on Wednesday.
We do not believe that RBI would raise interest rates as CPI has been under control and RBI has lowered the inflation outlook. However, if food inflation rises out of deficient
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Shield Researchmonsoon, then possibility of interest rate hike might come true. It’s too premature to talk about RBI’s action in the next policy as it would depend on monsoons.
The CBI on Friday questioned ICICI Bank CEO and MD Chanda Kochhar's brother-in-law Rajiv Kochhar for a second consecutive day in connection with a case of Rs3,250 crore loan to the Videocon Group in 2012.
WEEKLY INDEX LEVELS:Nifty CMP Pivot
PointSupport1 Support2 Support3 Resistance
1Resistance2 Resistance3
10331.60 10264 10178 10025 9786 10417 10503 10743
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Upcoming Week Bank Nifty Movement:
Bank Nifty opened flat and managed to settle above 24,750 on a closing basis. It finally negated formation of lower highs on the weekly chart and started making higher highs and higher lows since last three sessions.
The index formed a bullish candle on the daily chart, which implies that the bulls had an upper hand in the market. Now, Nifty has to hold above 24,750 levels to extend its move towards 25,000 and then 25,250 levels, while on the downside, major support exists at 24,500 levels.
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Shield ResearchNifty Bank closed the week on positive note gaining around 2.50%.
The index has closed around the support zone of 24600 to 24500 from where the index broke out of triple top pattern and long term moving averages are lying. If the index manages to close below these levels then the index can drift to the levels of 24100 to 24000 where break out levels are lying.
Resistance for the index lies in the zone of 24900 to 25000 where short term moving averages are lying. If the index manages to close above these levels then the index can move to the levels of 25250 to 25350 where the index has formed a gap and short & medium term moving averages are lying.
Range for the week is seen from 24000 on downside & 25350 on upside.
Finally, after two months the Indian government has been able to locate fugitive diamond merchant Nirav Modi. The government has confirmed the whereabouts of Firestar Diamond owner, who's the main accused in the Rs 13,700-crore PNB fraud, saying he is living in Hong Kong. To stop him from moving to a different country, the government has approached the authorities in Hong Kong for his provisional arrest. Hong Kong is a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China. Reports suggest that China, which though rarely interferes in Hong Kong's legal process, might be a hurdle in the businessman's extradition.
Axis Bank, the country's third largest private sector bank has reported almost five times higher net non-performing assets (NPAs) slippage during FY2016-17. The bank had to even increase provisions by 193% during the past fiscal. However, irrespective of this, the Bank's Managing Director and Chief Executive Shikha Sharma were granted 9, 00,000 options during the fiscal year at an exercise price of Rs 469.90. Net slippages is one of key factors behind granting stock options.
As per the annual report of Axis Bank, the lender's net NPA slippage jumped to Rs 6, 104.41 crore during FY2016-17 compared with Rs1,205.43 crore in FY2015-16. During
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Shield Researchfiscal 2017, the Bank created significantly higher total provisions (excluding provisions for tax) of Rs 12,116.96 crore compared with Rs 3,709.86 crore last year mainly on account of elevated slippages during the year. The Bank provided Rs 11,157.06 crore towards non-performing assets compared with Rs 3,800.46 crore last year and Rs 334.57 crore towards provision for standard assets including UN hedged foreign currency exposure compared to Rs 388.62 crore previous years.
Rajnish Kumar, Chairman, State Bank of India (SBI) admitted that it is not the best of times to be a banker, but is optimistic about the future - especially with the clock ticking down to the deadline for the first 12 beleaguered companies referred by the RBI to the National Company Law Tribunal."We are expecting that (resolution) to happen this month. As for provisions, these are expected to be neutral. Rather, there may be some write-backs," Kumar told that, "We are waiting for the Essar Steel bid to be in place. Once that happens, we will have a correct estimate because for the rest of the cases, bids have been made and the position is clear. So, Essar Steel is crucial. The entries (about proceeds) will be reflected in the quarter ending June."
Reserve Bank directed all regulated entities including banks not to provide services to businesses dealing in virtual currencies like bit coins, so as to protect consumer interest and check money laundering. Technological innovations, including virtual currencies, have the potential to improve the efficiency and inclusiveness of the financial system, RBI said after its first bi-monthly monetary policy review of 2018-19.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday increased the bond investment limit for foreign portfolio investors (FPI) by a percentage point in two phases – a move that will allow foreigners about Rs 1.4 trillion of extra play in Indian bonds by the end of FY20.
Net increase in government bonds will be Rs 592 billion in two years. Corporate bonds would see their limits go up by Rs 447.8 billion by the end of FY20.
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WEEKLY INDEX LEVELS:Bank Nifty CMP Pivot
PointSupport1 Support2 Support3 Resistance
1Resistance2 Resistance3
24906.15 24665 24356 23807 22949 25215 25523 26381
“FPIs may, however, continue to reinvest coupons without any constraint. Only at the time of periodic re-setting of limits, coupon investments would be added to the amount of utilization,” the apex bank said.
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Shield ResearchTechnical Movement:
Apollo Tyre Limited: -
Apollo Tyre Limited: -
Trend of the stock is highly bullish, it took support previous breakout and trend line, also gave closing above pattern breakout at 295.65 if it sustains above 283 one can go for buying with stop loss at 260 for the targets of 295-310 Trend of the stock is up in weekly chart and strategy advised is buy on dips.
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Shield ResearchTechnical Movement:
DHFL Limited:-
DHFL Limited:-
Trend wise DHFL is bullish, the stock is giving weekly resistance breakout 547.80 (Made high 548.20) & gave strong closing near major level at 540.65, also took support previous breakout and 30 dema in weekly chart. Next week If it sustains above 520 one can go for buying with stop loss at 490 for the targets of 550-580, Trend of the stock is up in daily chart and strategy advised is buy on dips.
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Previous ArchivesLAST WEEK RECO
STOCKSRECO PRICE TGT FOLLOW UP REMARK
Apollo tyre Future 272 278-288 Done Final Target Made High 297.25, CMP 295.65
Bajfinance Future 1745 1780-1850 Done Final Target Made Low 1946.05, CMP 1938.55
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