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Repowering Earth
Smart, Secure and Sustainable. . .
“. . .The Future Ain’t What it Used to Be”
Terry Boston
Retired PJM President & CEO
IEEE PES
May 22, 2019
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(PHEVs Someday)
Greatest Engineering Achievements
of the 20th Century
10. Air Conditioning/
Refrigeration
9. Telephone
8. Computers
7. Agricultural Mechanization
6. Radio and Television
Source: National Academy of Engineering
1. The Grid/ Electrification
5. Electronics
4. Water Supply and
Distribution
3. Airplane
2. Automobile
Microgrids … New York City After
Superstorm Sandy
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My First TVA Control System
Source: TVA
c. 1972
Replaced by a nuclear-shielded underground bunker-1974
5
PJM: 2016
My Last Control Room Was also a Under Ground Bunker
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The future is not ours to see. . .
1986 NSF
Internet 56k
1980’s Reliability. . .
. . .Lightning & squirrels
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The Internet of Things (IOT) c. 2019
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Cyber and Physical Security
It’s not Easy to Protect Substations
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Coal Nuclear CombinedCycle Gas-
Fired
CombinedCycle Gas-
Fired
Wind Solar
$/MWh
The cost to build and operate new gas, wind and solar
power is challenging existing generation resources
.
1) Source: Source: Lazard. Assumes $3/MMBtu natural gas. Midwest wind and solar resource
Operating costs of existing plants
(2020)
Costs to build and operate new plants
(including incentives for wind/solar, 2020)
Falling wind and solar costs, and lower gas prices have
been accelerating the retirement of coal and nuclear plants
$55
$35$50
$33 $45
$12
$56
$30$28
$21
$39
$29
10
PJM All-in Wholesale Cost
0
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90
Energy Capacity Transmission & Other
Competition Works --
Wholesale
Prices Down
by 37%$53.24
2008 2017
$84.66
$/M
Wh
Source: PJM State of the Markets Report
11
Wind Generation in PJM
If you like wind …
… You have to
love Storage
12
Hourly Average Wind Capacity Factor 28.6%
13
The Infamous “California Duck Curve”
”If you can’t store
you’ll have no electricity
after 4”
14
Storage –The Silver Bullet
Boston’s Bias:
I like storage
Pumped Hydro Compressed Air Flywheels
Stationary BatteryMobile BatteriesWater Heaters
15
Demand Growth from PHEVs & EVs
35.3 % of
U.S. energy use is oil
8.8 of 10 Americans
commute using cars
Wind, solar & shale gas
can power PHEVs
0
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Nissan GM Toyota Ford BMW
Tesla OTHER PHEV TOTAL BEV TOTAL
Demand for EVs & PHEVs
17
How Fast Can we Electrify Transportation?
From one horse carriage to 22 horsepower model T in 13 years
18
Henry Ford4-cylinder 2.9 liter engine: 20-22 hp
The Model T Ford (1908 – 1927) transformed transportation
by making it “a-FORD-able”
Source:
Secretary Chu
19
NextEra(DeKalb, IL)
Wind + Storage
217.5 MW, 145 turbines
+
20 MW, 8 MWh
Advanced Storage in PJM
Grid connected 296 MWBehind-the-meter 15 MW
Fly Wheels 20 MW
Grid-Scale Energy Storage --- 296+ MW in PJM
PJM Average Wind
Capacity Factor 28.6%
CO2
Elephant in the Living Roomwww.pjm.com
21
Alberta Canada’s Goal Zero Coal Emissions
21
Existing 2030
Total installed capacity: 16288 MW Total installed capacity: 24222 MW
Cogeneration, 5548 MW
Natural Gas, 10848 MW
Renewables, 7357 MW
Other, 469 MW
Coal-fired, 6289 MW
Cogeneration, 4502 MW
Natural Gas, 2712 MW
Renewables, 2357 MW
Other, 428 MW
AESO 2016 LTO Reference Case
Avoid gas-
fired plants;
fuel prices
high, volatile
Nuclear
power poised
for a
renaissance
Digital tech
driving more
powerful
processors &
hard drives
Boring. Just
run it safely
and reliably
CCS grabs
global focus
and
investment
Not in long-
range plans
or capital
budgets2000
Gas is king Nuclear
renaissance
stalled in US
Digital tech
focusing on
batteries and
energy
Distribution
system
platform is the
key enabler
CCS research
funding and
interest on
the decline
Lion’s share
of new plants;
front and
center in
planning
2019
Natural
Gas
Nuclear
Power
Digital
TechnologyDistribution
Carbon
Capture
Wind and
Solar
The Future Ain’t What it Used to Be
Source: Electric Power Research Institute – EPRI
Long-Term Research Needs vs. Near-Term Trends
23
Uncertainty: What Lies Ahead?
Centralized Supply
by LargeUnits
Concentrated Fuel Portfolio
Central Grid Control
Autonomous Micro-grid Control
Distributed Self-Supply By Smaller
Units
High Future Growth
Low Future Growth
Highly Diverse Fuel Portfolio
24
PJM Super Computer Cuts Run Time by a Factor of 10
Source PJM
25
Artificial Intelligent for Load Forecasting
Intelligent
Intelligent Alarm Processing &
Source PJM
Global Energy Use By Fuel Type(percent of 2016 consumption)
Source: BP 2018 Energy Outlook
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250% Coal
Electricity
Gas
Oil
27
2019--First Time in My Career-- US Net Energy Exporter
PJM
Leader ─ We cannot change the wind,
but we can adjust our sails.
Pessimist – Complains about the wind
Optimist – Thinks the winds will change
DER/Energy Efficiency –The Winds Have Changed
29
Grid of the Future--Meeting the Challenge
Source: EPRI
30
Project Partners
Project Call - May 16, 2019
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“Skate to Where the Puck is Going to Be”Wayne Gretzky
HVDCPower
Electronics
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SAIDI (12-Month Rolling)
1st Automation
Enabled
Smart Grid cuts Chattanooga epb Outage Time in Half
Min
ute
s
35
A Tale of Two Nuclear Power Plants
• Only six miles apart, but a world apart in coping
with the tsunami.
• At the Daini plant, operators responded with
something like the U.S. nuclear industry’s FLEX
strategy and saved all four reactors. Source: NEI
Daiichi Daini
36
The Fukushima Effect
“The tsunami stones are warnings across generations, telling
descendants to avoid the same suffering of their ancestors.” NY Times 4/22/2011
“Do not build your homes below this point!”
127.6 feet
above sea
level; 1896
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Union Station ─ 1908
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The best way to predict
the future is to create it!---Peter Drucker
Role of a Leader