Representation and StabilityA COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE 1957 AND THE 1960 ELECTIONS IN LEBANON

A- Outline of this presentation: A.OutlineB.IntroductionC.OrganizationD.MethodologyE.ResultsF. RecommendationsG.Conclusion

B- Introduction:• This presentation will explore the thesis I

presented last spring in completion of my requirement for a MA in political Studies at AUB. • The thesis studied the relationship between

representation and stability, by comparing the level of representation of the 1957 elections to 1960, and by comparing the level of stability in the period following the 1957 election to the 1960 one. In order to draw the proper conclusions and present possible recommendations.

Significance• Lebanon’s parliamentary elections and the laws

that govern it have always been the center of intense debates, and at times the cause of strife and clashes. • Electoral reforms have been at the heart of

every reconciliation efforts, following incidents of civil strife (1958, 1990, 2008)• The importance of election, electoral laws, and

representation in the political and public arena.

Why I choose this subject?

• The misrepresentative nature of the 2000 and 2005 election in Saida• The Boutros committee and debate

surrounding electoral laws•Resurrecting the 1960 Law in 2009

C- Organization:1.Theoretical overview of democracy in plural societies, power sharing models, representation, with a focus on the intricacies of the Lebanese political system

2.Historic overview of Lebanon since 1860, especially on this thesis period of study (1955-1961)

3.Analyzing and comparing the representation of each elections (1957 vs 1960) vis-a-vis the stability of each following period.

4.Exploring the different factors that affected stability, comparing it to representation.

5.A presentation of pertinent recommendation stemming from the findings of previous chapters.

D- Methodology:• Following the theoretical and historical

overview, a two-step research methodology was used to analyze, study, and compare the two variables of this thesis: representation and stability.1- Analytical comparison 2- Discourse analysis

1.Analytical comparison of the representative nature of each election (57 and 60) was based on preset criteria, used by the European commission to measure the fairness and the level of representation of elections: • Electoral system• districting• number of deputies, • campaign financing, • state and public interference in elections• technical electoral reforms (secret ballots)• Security

Meanwhile, stability was measured based on these criteria:

• geographical spread of clashes• Lebanese army involvement• Number of armed men• Number of casualties• Foreign troops intervention• Legislative activities• Economic activities

2.Discourse analysis of relevant opinions and quotes of the major political, public, and economic figure of the period. The discourse analysis was strengthened by an investigation of the US and UK diplomatic dispatches from the period. (These documents were obtained during a research visit to the National Archive in Washington DC, and from Kew, London.)

D- Methodology: (Cont’d )

The national archives in the US and the UK

E- Results• Representation: The results were unequivocal, out

of the criteria measuring representation, five out of seven clearly showed that the 1960 elections was significantly more representative than 1957. • On the stability side, the results were similar; the

period following the 1957 was beset with a civil war that resulted in more than 3000 casualties, and the government lost control of large regions. Meanwhile the period after 1960 was much calmer.

•Although the correlation between the two variable was strong, it was not sufficient in itself to draw the proper conclusion. Without testing it against the other factors put forth to explain the 1958 crisis.  • Therefore, the different factors that

affected stability and lead to the 1958 were explored, using the same two-step methodology.

E- results (Cont’d)Two group of factors were identified: internal and external:1.On the internal side, three factors were listed:

the 1957 election, President Chamoun bid for reelection and Muslim discontent.  

2.Externally, the regional turbulences and conflicts, stemming from the tripartite attack on Egypt, and the rising star of Nasser’s Arabism, in addition to the cold war and the different regional alliances that the US and the USSR formed, were considered as important factors.

• Both internal and external factors were either directly linked to representation, like the 57 election and Muslim grievances, or indirectly through a breach of the national accord, which affected the balance of power and by consequences the representation of Muslims in the state.  • Externally it was President Chamoun’s choices

and decisions to side with the west that exasperated the internal situation, going against the National Accords stipulation that Lebanon should take a neutral foreign policy.

E- Results (Cont’d)• These results highlighted the importance of the relation between representation and stability. Yet, it is imperative to restate that there is always a complex interrelationship between internal and external factors, and once both dimensions of the crisis collided, elucidating direct causality is beyond the scope of this thesis.

F- Recommendations:•Baby steps: Unfortunately, electoral reform in Lebanon has become a politicized issue, especially the electoral system and districting. Every political leader has set his sight on a specific proposal, which incidentally favors his own interests and negatively affect his opponents. Thus, the debate is deadlocked.

• Therefore, offering a constructed and overreaching reform plan, would be impractical to implement, especially when faced with the system’s immobility and the politicians’ aversion to reform. The solution is to implement several smaller and gradual reform. These steps would focus on strengthening the stability of Lebanon, by finding alternative methods to increase representation. While safeguarding the system’s effectiveness and its ability to reform and adapt to unavoidable change.

The proposed Steps:a- Opening up of the political arena and

increasing the number of deputies

b- Small technical electoral reform

c- Proportional electoral system

d- Adaptable and flexible electoral reform proposals

a.Opening up of the political arena and increasing the number of deputies

Overall, lowering the hurdles of entreing the political arena and increasing the number of deputies are very important steps. They effectively increase the political arena’s size, enabling the emergence of new political forces and parties, outside the control of the main sectarian leaders, while simultenously lowering inter-sectarian competition and tensions.

b.Small technical electoral reform • No matter how contradictory the interests of the

different segments are, there are always small gradual technical reforms that could be introduced. These reforms would not face a lot of resistance from sectarian leaders, and could on the long haul be very beneficial to the system, increasing its representation, and transparency, while lowering fraud and state interference in the elections. • For example, it is worth pushing for pre-printed

ballot , electronic voters’ register, strengthen the independent committee that supervise the elections and making it permanent, and even electronic voting.

c.Proportional electoral system•A delicate balance must be struck between further proportionality and effectiveness. In order to reap the benefits of both, while minimizing their negative traits.

d.Adaptable and flexible electoral reform proposals

• Electoral reform must open the door for further changes down the road, and encourage adaptability and flexibility in any proposed law, shying away from rigid and closed proposals, especially in districting and seat allocations. No matter how representative an electoral system is, if it cannot adopt and foster change, to deal with evolving circumstances it would be a failure and would have negative consequences. It would only ensure stability on the short term, while postponing and exacerbating the problem on the medium and long terms.

G- Conclusion:• There is no single remedy to solve Lebanon’s

instability and recurring bouts of civil strife. However, this thesis highlighted the critical importance of representation and by consequences the importance of electoral and structural reforms that strengthen it.

Electoral reforms

Increase in representa

tion

Strengthening

Stability

• Consequently, gradual changes and small measured steps are the only way forward in the case of Lebanon, among the conflicted forest of sectarian and personal interests. It is not a hopeless cause, it happened before in Lebanon‘s short history. The 1960 electoral law was at the time a reform breakthrough, significantly increasing representation, and even when it was resurrected in 2009, it offered relief and a lowering of tensions.

• One final note, during the research undertook for this thesis, I was able to observe and study many good ideas and serious efforts directed at electoral reform and ameliorating representation. Despite all impediments, and the ongoing polarization and immobility, the fact that many electoral reforms were included in the 2009 electoral law, is a sure indicator that reform and an increase of representation are possible, and consequently the vision of a stable, prosperous, and peaceful Lebanese system is attainable.

Thank you

Ibrahim Jouhari