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Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

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Page 1: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Representative Sampling

Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop

Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002

Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Page 2: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Overview

Definitions

Reducing Error

Sample Creation

Examples

Page 3: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Definitions

Population – consists of all the units (individuals, households, organizations) to which you desire to generalize survey results

Sample Frame – list from which your sample is drawn

Page 4: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Definitions

Sample – the set of respondents selected from a larger population for the purpose of a survey

Completed Sample – consists of all units that return completed questionnaires (instruments)

Page 5: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Definitions

Coverage Error – results from every unit in the Survey Population not having a known, non-zero chance of being included in the sample

Sampling Error – the result of collecting data from a subset, rather than all of the members of the sampling frame

Page 6: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Avoiding Coverage Error

Page 7: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

How to Reduce Coverage Error?

Make certain your list contains everyone in the Survey Population Unique, non-repeating Sampling Units

Update & Properly maintain your list

Have your list contain other information that can be used to improve your survey

Page 8: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

How Large Should Your Sample be?

Sample does not have to be arbitrarily selected

ALL THAT IS REQUIRED:Knowing about your study population

AND

Knowing your survey objectives

Page 9: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

How Large Should Your Sample Be?

Sample Size Depends On:

How much sampling error can be tolerated

Population size

Variation of Population (50/50 or 80/20)

Amount of Confidence

Page 10: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Does Size Matter

Page 11: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Small Populations

Population Size

Sample Size for 95 Percent Confidence

+ 3 %

Sampling Error

+ 5 %

Sampling Error

50/50 Split

80/20 Split

50/50 Split

80/20 Split

100 92 87 80 71

500 341 289 217 165

1,000 516 406 278 198

5,000 880 601 357 234

Page 12: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Larger Populations

Population Size

Sample Size for 95 Percent Confidence

+ 3 %

Sampling Error

+ 5 %

Sampling Error

50/50 Split

80/20 Split

50/50 Split

80/20 Split

10,000 964 639 370 240

50,000 1,045 674 381 245

100,000 1,056 678 383 245

1,000,000 1,066 682 384 246

Page 13: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

3 Easy Steps to Sampling

1) Identify your Target Population

2) Put together a Population List

3) Select the Sample

Page 14: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Hey, Wait a Minute…..

I DON’T KNOW HOW TO

SELECT THE SAMPLE!!!

Page 15: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Sampling Methods

Probability Simple Random Sampling (SRS) Systematic Sampling

Nonprobability (Purposeful)

Page 16: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Probability Sampling Method

Simple Random Sampling (SRS) Each member of the target population has an equal chance of

being selected All elements are selected randomly – CAN BE

CUMBERSOME!!!

Systematic Sampling Members of the target population have an equal chance of being

selected Only the first element is selected randomly; rest selected

systematically (every 5th, 10th, …)

Page 17: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Purposeful Sampling Method

Depends on subjective judgment Selected because it is convenient or typical

All members do not have the same chance of being selected

Page 18: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Purposeful Sampling Method

Appropriate for: Exploratory Research Focus Groups Organizing Committees Building Networks

Do not use if your goal is to learn about the larger population

–Results are not generalizable!!

Page 19: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Example 1: Successful Hunting Experience

Target Population: 1 million Deer Hunters

Survey Objectives: Learn about Hunting Success

Acceptable Sampling Error: + 3%

Confidence Level: 95%

Population Variation: 80/20

Page 20: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Example 1:Successful Hunting Experience

Population List: Automated Licensing Database

Sample Size: 683

Sampling Method: Systematic Sampling

Page 21: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Example 2:Female Hunter Perceptions

You know you want to study female waterfowl hunters and their satisfaction levels.

But… You do not know much about them

AND You do not know your survey objectives

Page 22: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Example 2:Female Hunter Perceptions

Target Population: Female Waterfowl Hunters (n = 100?)

Survey Objectives: Explore their satisfaction levels

Acceptable Sampling Error: + 3%

Confidence Level: 95%

Population Variation: 50/50 or 80/20 ???

Page 23: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Example 2:Female Hunter Perceptions

Source: Automated Licensing Database

Sample Method: ??

Sample Size:??

Page 24: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Example 2:Female Hunter Perceptions

The Solution! Conduct Exploratory Research

Increase Sampling Error to + 10%

Hold a series of focus groups (n = 50)

Page 25: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Example 2:Female Hunter Perceptions

Enables you to… Learn about Population Variation Learn about General Characteristics Define Survey Objectives Select appropriate sample size to be surveyed.

Page 26: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Review

What does sample size depend on?

What are the 3 steps to sampling?

Does size matter?

Page 27: Representative Sampling Presented at the AWDS Task Force’s Marketing Workshop Big Sky, Montana Friday, September 20, 2002 Len Singel, AWDS Coordinator

Sources

Dillman, D.A. 2000. Mail and Internet Surveys: The Tailored Design Method. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 464pp.

Salant, P. and D.A. Dillman. 1994. How to Conduct your Own Survey. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 232pp.