republic of panama fiscal performance third quarter 2017 · 2017-11-20 · according to the world...
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Republic of Panama
Fiscal Performance
Third Quarter 2017
Dulcidio De La GuardiaMinister of Economy and Finance
Iván ZarakVice Minister of Economy
Eyda Varela de ChinchillaVice Minister of Finance
November 2017
This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer or invitation to sell securities of the Republic of
Panama (“Republic”), or the solicitation of an offer to subscribe for or purchase securities of the Republic, and nothing contained herein shall form
the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase any securities of the Republic
should be made solely on the basis of conditions of the securities and the information to be contained in the prospectus, prospectus supplement or
equivalent disclosure document produced in connection with the offering of such securities. Prospective investors are required to make their own
independent investigations and appraisals of the business and financial condition of the Republic and the nature of any securities of the Republic
before taking any investment decision with respect to securities of the Republic. The contents of this presentation should not be the basis for
making investment decisions, nor should the presentation be construed as a recommendation to engage in investment transactions. This
presentation is not related to the provision of advisory services regarding investment, tax, legal, financial, accounting, consulting or any other
related services, nor is a recommendation being provided to buy, sell or purchase any good or product.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which include all statements other than statements of historical facts, including, without
limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or including the words “targets,” “believes,” “projects,” “estimates,” “expects,” “aims,” “intends,”
“may,” “anticipates,” “would,” “could” or similar expressions or the negative thereof. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown
risks, uncertainties and other important factors beyond the Republic's control that could cause the Republic’s actual results, performance or
achievements to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation. The financial information in this presentation should be used for
reference purposes only with the understanding that market conditions may change and past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
The Republic expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements
contained herein to reflect any change in its expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any of
such statements are based. However, the Republic reserves the right to update, amend or delete information contained in this presentation without
prior notice.
The Republic, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the Public Financing Directorate of MEF do not assume legal responsibility nor will
they be liable for the way that this information may be interpreted, including any inaccuracies, assumptions, or projections related to this
information. The Republic, MEF and the Public Credit Directorate of MEF will not be liable for any loss or damage that directly or indirectly arises
with respect to the use of this information.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
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Contents:
Macroeconomic Overview
3
Fiscal Performance
Debt Profile
Recent Events
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2
3
4
Contents:
Macroeconomic Overview
4
Fiscal Performance
Debt Profile
Final Remarks
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2
3
4
3.5
5.9
5.7
4.0
2.6
0.2
0.7 0.8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 sep-17
Price controls scheme of President Varela comes into effect, helping to slow the rate of CPI
growth
Increase driven by biennial adjustment of the minimum wage
leading to increase in unit laborcosts in 2016
Panama´s growth continues to be supported by a well diversified economy and is seen when compared to regional peers.
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GDP growth, as of August 2017 (%)
Source: INEC
Macroeconomic Overview1
FDI Growth ( 2014-2016)
IQIQIQ
4,4584,494 5,225
2014 2015 2016
1,1…
1,315
2016 I Trim 2017 I TrimI Q 2016 I Q 2017
5.2%
5.8%
I SEM 2016 I SEM 2017August 2016 August 2017
2,589
2,689
2,845
2015 2016 2017
FDI Growth 2Q (2015-2016)
+5.8 %
Inflation(%)
Real GDP Growth Expected as of October 2017
Source: IMF
5.3% 3.9% 2.7% 2.1%
Source: INEC Source: INEC
US$million US$million
According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), Panama is ranked 11 out of 137 countries in macroeconomic environment.
3 Competitive AdvantegesMacroeconomic Overview1
Open Unemployment (%)
4.6 9.3 9.6 8.7 12.6
Panamá Argentina Costa Rica Colombia Brasil
26.2 25.8
23.022.1
2013 2014 2015 2016
Extreme Poverty (%)
Total Poverty (%)
11.1 11.0
10.39.9
2013 2014 2015 2016
21,809
9,467
Panama BBB Median
Total Poverty
(USD MM)
Source: World Economic Forum 2017-2018
Source: DAES
The fiscal year 2017 was a record year for the Panama Canal. It received a record 403.8 million tons of cargo, the largest amount of annual tonnage ever transited in its 103-year history.
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Macroeconomic Overview1
Source: ACP
Panama Canal Economic IndicatorsAugust YoY
-7.0%-4.4%
-10.6%
6.0%
19.3%23.7%
Transit Panama Canal Revenues Cargo Volume
August 2016 August 2017
403.8 million Cargo tonnage record
13,548 vessels Transited through the Panama Canal
Fiscal Year 2017
The 2018 Goverment Budget is part of an environment of economic growth of the country and meets the déficit limit of 0.5%.
Macroeconomic Overview1
USD 23.8 Billion2018 Goverment Budget
USD 9.5 Billion2018 Investment Budget
4th Bridge Over thePanama Canal
Financial Services
Development of Social Services
Other
Development and Promotion of Production
General Services
Infrastructure Development
Government Budget by Sector
46.8%
13.3%
14.2%
11.0%
2.4%
12.3%
Law 72 of November 13, 2017:
Selected economic indicators as of August 2017
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Macroeconomic Overview1
National Banking System
Consumption Industrial
Energy
Delivered Generation 1.0%
Power Supply 1.5%
Power Demand 1.5%
Chicken Production
Milk Production
Soft Drinks
2.1%
2.5%
-9.0%
Internal Deposits 2.9%
Loan Portfolio 1.3%
Net Profit 17.4%
Tourist Expenditures 0.6%
Number of Visitors 0.4%
Car Sales -13.1%
Average Liquidity Index 60.7%
Source: INEC
Contents:
Macroeconomic Overview
10
Fiscal Performance
Debt Profile
Final Remarks
1
2
3
4
104 mm
27 mm
19 mm
The NFPS results showed an income of US$ 8,323 million, expenses of US$9,752 million and a deficit of US$1,430 million, or 2.4% of GDP.
Personal Services by CategorySept 2016 – Sept 2017
Fiscal Performance2
Source: MEF
Deficit
93
4658
20
Education Security Health Judicial
(USD mm)
Main Investment Projects of the NFPSas of Sept17
38 mm
87 mm
128 mm
55% of SNPF Expenditures increase was due to personal services special laws for teachers, doctors and security personnel.
Contents:
Macroeconomic Overview
12
Fiscal Performance
Debt Profile
Final Remarks
1
2
3
4
Debt Profile3
13Source: MEF
29 Sep 2017
Changes outlook on Panama to positive from stable; Baa2 rating affirmed
Prudent debt management has helped achieve favorable debt cost trends…
Debt Profile3
14Source: MEF
5.6%
5.3%
5.1%
4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 sep-17
82.8%
17.2%Fixed
Floating
Source: Bloomberg
Source: MEF
Central Government Debt Interest as of Sep17 (US$millions)
Weighted average cost of debt (%)
… while protected from a tightening global interest rate environment by a solid debt structure and composition, as reflected by low EMBIG spreads
Debt composition by rate as of Sep17 (% of total) Quarterly Comparison of Global EMBIG with Panama and Latin American peersJuly 2017 – September 2017
100
150
200
250
300
350
30/6/17 15/7/17 30/7/17 14/8/17 29/8/17 13/9/17 28/9/17
EMBIG EMBIG PANAMA EMBIG COLOMBIA EMBIG PERU EMBIG MEXICO
408
116
404
1Q 2Q 3Q
Interest
Net Debt in $US million and as a percentage of GDP
18,231
20,222
21,602 21,602
34.5%
36.4%
37.8%
35.1%
33.0%
34.0%
35.0%
36.0%
37.0%
38.0%
39.0%
40.0%
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
2014 2015 2016(Projected)
2016 (Real)
Total Debt Net Debt/GDP
(Forcasted)
Panama has developed a successful market makers programs, which has a positive assessment by multilateral agencies and credit rating agencies, enhancing our status as a country with investment grade…
Debt Profile3
15Source: MEF
Local Market Issuances Secondary Market
(USD MM) (USD MM)
Since the launching of the Market Maker Program the Republic has issued
approximately US$4,781 billion in the local market, excluding the T. Bills.
Panama Yield Curves vs UST
387 323471 425 427
715
346 268
466
994
100
665290
318
60
1364
699
352
853
1317
1835
525
10921005
1363
680
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sep. 2017
T. Bills T.Notes T.Bonds Total
26.2
312.2
620.9
762.9 767.6
533.3
1,266.9
572.39
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 sep-17
(US$
mill
ion
TACC:74%
2020
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
20292036
20472053
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39
Yie
ld (
%)
Tenor (years)
External Curve Local Curve UST
2023
Macroeconomic Overview
16
Fiscal Performance
Debt Profile
Final Remarks
1
2
3
4
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Prudent debt management has helped achieved a constant weighted average cost of debtof 4.8% from 2015 to September 2017.
Panama has fifteen years of sustained macroeconomic momentum supported by a strongtrack-record of economic growth, fiscal performance and debt management.
Panama´s diversified economy and low inflation continue to support strong economicgrowth with 5.8% growth as of August 2017.
Final Remarks4
The implementation of various initiatives under the development of the domestic capitalmarket, has allowed to close the spread among both curves of government debtsecurities.
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2
3
4
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Great fiscal performance as of September 2017, the Central Government revenuesincreased 1.6%, collecting 83 million dollars more compared to previous years.