republic of paraguay · disclaimer this presentation has been prepared by or on behalf of the...
TRANSCRIPT
January 2020 | Strictly Private & Confidential
Republic of ParaguayOpen | Competitive | Vibrant
Disclaimer
THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN PREPARED BY OR ON BEHALF OF THE REPUBLIC OF PARAGUAY (THE “REPUBLIC”). THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO SELL OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES OR AN INDUCEMENT TO ENTER INTOINVESTMENT ACTIVITY. AN OFFER AND SALE OF SECURITIES, IF ANY, SHALL BE MADE ONLY PURSUANT TO A PRELIMINARY OFFERING MEMORANDUM, ANY SUPPLEMENTAL OFFERING MATERIALS AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF SALE OF ANY SECURITIES AND A FINALOFFERING MEMORANDUM, AND NOT IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE SUCH OFFER OR SALE IS NOT PERMITTED.THE TERMS “UNITED STATES” AND “U.S. PERSONS,” WHEN USED IN THIS PRESENTATION, HAVE THE MEANINGS SET FORTH IN REGULATION S UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED. SECURITIES MAY NOT BE OFFERED OR SOLD IN THE UNITEDSTATES TO, OR FOR THE ACCOUNT OR THE BENEFIT OF, U.S. PERSONS ABSENT REGISTRATION OR AN EXEMPTION FROM THE REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED. THE REPUBLIC DOES NOT INTEND TO REGISTERANY POSITION OF THE OFFERING IN THE UNITED STATES OR TO CONDUCT ANY POSSIBLE OFFERING OF THE SECURITIES IN THE UNITED STATES.THIS PRESENTATION IS SOLELY FOR USE AT THIS ROADSHOW, IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A PROSPECTUS OR OTHER OFFERING MEMORANDUM IN WHOLE OR IN PART. THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOTCONTAIN ALL THE INFORMATION THAT IS MATERIAL TO AN INVESTOR. IF ANY SECURITIES ARE OFFERED AND SOLD, AN INVESTMENT IN SUCH SECURITIES WILL BE SPECULATIVE, NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERY PERSON, AND SUCH SECURITIES WILL BE INTENDED FOREXPERIENCED AND SOPHISTICATED INVESTORS WHO ARE WILLING TO BEAR THE ECONOMIC RISK OF THE INVESTMENT. THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS FURNISHED TO YOU WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT AS A SOPHISTICATEDINVESTOR YOU UNDERSTAND AND ACCEPT ITS INHERENT LIMITATIONS. NO PART OF THIS PRESENTATION, NOR THE FACT OF ITS DISTRIBUTION, SHOULD FORM THE BASIS OF, OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH, ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT ORINVESTMENT DECISION WHATSOEVER. THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT FINANCIAL, LEGAL, TAX OR OTHER PRODUCT ADVICE. PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS SHOULD UNDERTAKE THEIR OWN ASSESSMENT WITH REGARD TO AN INVESTMENT IN THE SECURITIES ANDSHOULD OBTAIN INDEPENDENT ADVICE ON ANY SUCH INVESTMENT’S SUITABILITY, INHERENT RISKS AND MERITS AND ANY TAX, LEGAL AND ACCOUNTING IMPLICATIONS WHICH IT MAY HAVE FOR THEM. BY ATTENDING THE PRESENTATION OR BY READING THEPRESENTATION SLIDES YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND AS FOLLOWS:THIS PRESENTATION IS CONFIDENTIAL AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF, AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS, AN OFFER OR INVITATION, TO SUBSCRIBE FOR, UNDERWRITE OR OTHERWISE ACQUIRE, OR A RECOMMENDATION REGARDING, ANYSECURITIES OF THE REPUBLIC NOR SHOULD IT OR ANY PART OF IT FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH (I) ANY CONTRACT TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SECURITIES OF THE REPUBLIC, OR (II) ANY OTHER CONTRACT ORCOMMITMENT WHATSOEVER. ANY PERSON CONSIDERING THE PURCHASE OF ANY SUCH SECURITIES MUST INFORM HIMSELF INDEPENDENTLY BASED SOLELY ON AN OFFERING CIRCULAR BEFORE TAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. THIS PRESENTATION HASBEEN MADE SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND BACKGROUND FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY AND MAY BE AMENDED AND SUPPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME AND MAY NOT BE RELIED UPON FOR THE PURPOSE OF ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTION. THEINFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, COMPLETION OR AMENDMENT FROM TIME TO TIME WITHOUT NOTICE AND NO PARTY IS UNDER ANY OBLIGATION TO KEEP YOU ADVISED OF SUCH CHANGES. YOU SHOULD NOTASSUME THAT ANY INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION IS ACCURATE AS OF ANY DATE OTHER THAN THE DATE HEREOF OR OTHERWISE SPECIFIED HEREIN. NONE OF THE REPUBLIC, ITS ADVISERS, REPRESENTATIVES, CONNECTED PERSONS OR ANY OTHERPERSON EXPECTS TO UPDATE OR OTHERWISE REVISE THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION OR OTHER MATERIALS SUPPLIED HEREWITH. HOWEVER, TO THE EXTENT PROVIDED, INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION WILL BE DEEMED TO BEAUTOMATICALLY SUPERSEDED AND REPLACED BY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THE FUTURE.THIS PRESENTATION AND ITS CONTENTS ARE CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY TO THE REPUBLIC, AND NO PART OF IT OR ITS SUBJECT MATTER MAY BE REPRODUCED, REDISTRIBUTED, PASSED ON, OR THE CONTENTS OTHERWISE DIVULGED, DIRECTLY ORINDIRECTLY, TO ANY OTHER PERSON, OR PUBLISHED IN WHOLE OR IN PART FOR ANY PURPOSE WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF THE REPUBLIC. IF THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED IN ERROR, IT MUST BE RETURNED IMMEDIATELY TO THEREPUBLIC. THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT DIRECTED TO, OR INTENDED FOR DISTRIBUTION TO, OR USE BY, ANY PERSON OR ENTITY THAT IS A CITIZEN OR RESIDENT OR LOCATED IN ANY LOCALITY, STATE, COUNTRY OR JURISDICTION WHERE SUCH DISTRIBUTION,PUBLICATION, AVAILABILITY OR USE WOULD BE CONTRARY TO LAW OR REGULATION OR WHICH WOULD REQUIRE ANY REGISTRATION OR LICENSING WITHIN SUCH JURISDICTION.THIS PRESENTATION IS ONLY BEING DIRECTLY PROVIDED TO PERSONS THAT ARE (I) “QUALIFIED INSTITUTIONAL BUYERS” AS DEFINED IN RULE 144A UNDER THE U.S. SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED (“QIBS”) OR (II) PERSONS THAT ARE NOT U.S. PERSONSIN OFFSHORE TRANSACTIONS IN ACCORDANCE WITH REGULATION S UNDER THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED. BY ACCEPTING DELIVERY OF THIS PRESENTATION, THE RECIPIENT WARRANTS AND ACKNOWLEDGES THAT IT FALLS WITHIN THE CATEGORYOF PERSONS DESCRIBED UNDER (I) OR (II) ABOVE AND THAT IT WILL NOT COPY, REPRODUCE, PUBLISH, DISTRIBUTE, TRANSMIT OR DISCLOSE THIS PRESENTATION OR ANY OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, INTO THE UNITEDSTATES.THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN PREPARED ON THE BASIS THAT ANY OFFER OF SECURITIES IN ANY MEMBER STATE OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA WILL BE MADE PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION UNDER REGULATION (EU) 2017/1129 FROM THE REQUIREMENTTO PUBLISH A PROSPECTUS FOR OFFERS OF SECURITIES. NO SECURITIES ARE INTENDED TO BE OFFERED, SOLD, DISTRIBUTED OR OTHERWISE MADE AVAILABLE TO AND SHOULD NOT BE OFFERED, SOLD, DISTRIBUTED OR OTHERWISE MADE AVAILABLE TO ANYRETAIL INVESTOR IN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA. FOR THESE PURPOSES, (A) A RETAIL INVESTOR MEANS A PERSON WHO IS ONE (OR MORE) OF: (I) A RETAIL CLIENT AS DEFINED IN POINT (11) OF ARTICLE 4(1) OF DIRECTIVE 2014/65/EU (AS AMENDED,“MIFID II”); OR (II) A CUSTOMER WITHIN THE MEANING OF DIRECTIVE (EU) 2016/97, WHERE THAT CUSTOMER WOULD NOT QUALIFY AS A PROFESSIONAL CLIENT AS DEFINED IN POINT (10) OF ARTICLE 4(1) OF MIFID II.THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR DISTRIBUTION ONLY TO PERSONS WHO: (I) ARE OUTSIDE THE UNITED KINGDOM; (II) HAVE PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE IN MATTERS RELATING TO INVESTMENTS FALLING WITHIN ARTICLE 19(5) OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICES ANDMARKETS ACT 2000 (FINANCIAL PROMOTION) ORDER 2005 (AS AMENDED, THE “FINANCIAL PROMOTION ORDER”); (III) ARE PERSONS FALLING WITHIN ARTICLES 49(2)(A) TO (D) (“HIGH NET WORTH COMPANIES, UNINCORPORATED ASSOCIATIONS, ETC.”) OF THEFINANCIAL PROMOTION ORDER; OR (IV) ARE PERSONS TO WHOM AN INVITATION OR INDUCEMENT TO ENGAGE IN INVESTMENT ACTIVITY (WITHIN THE MEANING OF SECTION 21 OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICES AND MARKETS ACT 2000) IN CONNECTION WITH THEISSUE OR SALE OF ANY SECURITIES MAY OTHERWISE LAWFULLY BE COMMUNICATED OR CAUSED TO BE COMMUNICATED (ALL SUCH PERSONS TOGETHER BEING REFERRED TO AS “RELEVANT PERSONS”). THIS PRESENTATION IS DIRECTED ONLY AT RELEVANTPERSONS AND MUST NOT BE ACTED ON OR RELIED ON BY PERSONS WHO ARE NOT RELEVANT PERSONS. ANY INVESTMENT OR INVESTMENT ACTIVITY TO WHICH THIS PRESENTATION RELATES IS AVAILABLE ONLY TO RELEVANT PERSONS AND WILL BE ENGAGEDIN ONLY WITH RELEVANT PERSONS.THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE WORDS “BELIEVE”, “EXPECT”, “ANTICIPATE”, “INTEND”, “PLAN”, “ESTIMATE”, “EXPECT”, “PROJECT”, “FORECAST”, “WILL”, “SHOULD”, AND “MAY” AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS AS WELL ASSTATEMENTS OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, THOSE REGARDING FINANCIAL POSITION, STRATEGY, PLANS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC FOR FUTURE OPERATIONS (INCLUDINGDEVELOPMENT PLANS AND OBJECTIVES) IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RISKS, UNCERTAINTIES AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS WHICH MAY AFFECT THE REPUBLIC'SABILITY TO IMPLEMENT AND ACHIEVE THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY POLICIES, BUDGETARY PLANS, FISCAL GUIDELINES AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT BENCHMARKS SET OUT IN SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND WHICH MAY CAUSE ACTUALRESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS TO BE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM FUTURE RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED BY SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE BASEDON NUMEROUS ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING THE REPUBLIC'S PRESENT AND FUTURE POLICIES AND PLANS AND THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THE REPUBLIC WILL OPERATE IN THE FUTURE. FURTHERMORE, CERTAIN FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE BASEDON ASSUMPTIONS OR FUTURE EVENTS WHICH MAY NOT PROVE TO BE ACCURATE. THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS PRESENTATION SPEAK ONLY AS OF THE DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION AND THE REPUBLIC EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS TO THE FULLESTEXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW ANY OBLIGATION OR UNDERTAKING TO DISSEMINATE ANY UPDATES OR REVISIONS TO ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN TO REFLECT ANY CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS WITH REGARD THERETO OR ANYCHANGE IN EVENTS, CONDITIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES ON WHICH ANY SUCH STATEMENT IS BASED. NOTHING IN THE FOREGOING IS INTENDED OR SHALL EXCLUDE ANY LIABILITY FOR, OR REMEDY IN RESPECT OF, FRAUDULENT MISREPRESENTATION.THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED. NO REPRESENTATION, WARRANTY OR UNDERTAKING, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IS OR WILL BE MADE, AND NO RESPONSIBILITY OR LIABILITY IS OR WILL BE ACCEPTED, AS TO THEFAIRNESS, ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS PRESENTATION AND THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, OR IN ANY RELATED WRITTEN OR ORAL INFORMATION MADE AVAILABLE, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON IT. INFORMATION OTHERTHAN INDICATIVE TERMS (INCLUDING MARKET DATA AND STATISTICAL INFORMATION) HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM VARIOUS SOURCES. ALL PROJECTIONS, VALUATIONS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSES ARE PROVIDED TO ASSIST THE RECIPIENT IN THE EVALUATIONOF MATTERS DESCRIBED HEREIN. THEY MAY BE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS AND ASSUMPTIONS AND MAY USE ONE AMONG ALTERNATIVE METHODOLOGIES THAT PRODUCE DIFFERENT RESULTS AND, TO THE EXTENT THEY ARE BASED ON HISTORICALINFORMATION, THEY SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS AN ACCURATE PREDICTION OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. NONE OF THE REPUBLIC, ITS ADVISERS, REPRESENTATIVES, CONNECTED PERSONS OR ANY OTHER PERSON ACCEPTS ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER FORANY LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, FROM THIS PRESENTATION OR ITS CONTENTS. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
2
Summary Terms of the Offering
Issuer Republic of Paraguay (“Paraguay”)
Expected Ratings Ba1 / BB / BB+ (Moody’s/S&P/Fitch)
Format 144A / RegS
Currency United States Dollar (“USD”)
Reopening Security 5.400% Notes due 2050
Reopening Size US$450 million
Current Size US$500 million
Average Life 29 Years
Amortization Soft bullet (Three equal installments in 2048, 2049 and 2050)
Optional Redemption Make-Whole Call | 6-month Par Call
Listing Luxembourg Stock Exchange / Euro MTF
Use of Proceeds
(a) Finance infrastructure and capital expenditures,
(b) refinance a portion of its outstanding debt and
(c) honor funding obligations to certain multilateral organizations
Denominations US$200,000 x US$1,000
Governing Law State of New York
Joint Bookrunners Goldman Sachs / Itau BBA / Morgan Stanley (B&D)
3
Key facts: Republic of Paraguay
Paraguay is a dynamic, fast-growing economy with a rapidly improving credit profile
Paraguay
Sovereign credit rating Moody's: Ba1 / Stable
S&P: BB /Stable
Fitch: BB+ / Stable
Geography Capital City: Asunción
Population 7.05 million (2018)
Over half of the population lives in urban
areas in the eastern portion of the country
Currency Paraguayan Guaraní,₲
Exchange Rate G.6,453.1 per U.S.
dollar (YE 2019)
GDP Nominal GDP: 39 USD Bn (2019)
Real GDP Growth: 0.2%(2019)
GDP per capita: 5,404 USD (2019)
President Mario Abdo Benítez (Coloradoparty)
Start of five-year term on August 15,2018
Dec-0
6
Dec-0
7
Dec-0
8
Dec-0
9
Dec-1
0
Dec-1
1
Dec-1
2
Dec-1
3
Dec-1
4
Dec-1
5
Dec-1
6
Dec-1
7
Dec-1
8Paraguay’s Credit Ratings, on its path to Investment Grade Key UpgradeDrivers
BBB-/Baa3
BB+/Ba1
BB/Ba2
BB-/Ba3
B+/B1
B/B2
B-/B3
CCC/Caa1 Moody's
Investment Grade
Resilience to
externalshocks
Credit metrics continued to improve despite
economic problems in its key neighbor
countries, Brazil andArgentina
Growth
Performance
Remarkable growth performance combined with
increasing pace of economicdiversification
Macroeconomic
discipline
Track record of Fiscal Prudence, with
institutionalized fiscal discipline
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay, Standard and Poor's, Moody's December 2019, Fitch December 2019, Fitch Paraguay's full rating report , December 2019
4
Fitch
S&P
Dec-1
9
Paraguay has strengthened its four macro pillars
Solid Financial System
Non Performing Loans (%)
Fiscal Balance
Fiscal Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP
Price Stability
Inflation, annual year-end growth rate (%)
Balanced External Account
Current Account Balance as % of GDP (Through Sep-2019)
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay, IMF.
2,8
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
(2,8)%
(6,0)
(4,0)
(2,0)
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
2,9%
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
oct.
-201
9
(1,2)%(2,0)
(1,0)
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
3Q
201
9
5
Investment Highlights
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay
Robust export sector: global leader in grain, livestock
and electricity exports
Government institutions that are focused on improving
effectiveness, with a strong forward looking stance
Favorable medium term outlook for the economy
Prudent macroeconomic policy with historical track
record of above average and resilient growth
3
4
5
2
1
Disciplined government committed to low
government debt and structural reforms
6
3,4
2,1
2,7
3,9 3,9
2,62,4
4,2
ParaguayBB/Ba1/
BB+
PortugalBBB/Baa3/
BBB
ColombiaBBB-/Baa2/
BBB
CyprusBBB-/Ba2/
BBB-
PanamaBBB+/Baa1/
BBB
Moody'sMedian
Baa1 - Baa3
SouthAmericaMedian
Stands out among investment grade peers
High growth rate driven by exports and private consumptionReal GDP Growth %, year-end 2018
Commitment to low government debt, apparent in peer comparisonsCentral Government Debt as % of GDP, year-end 2018
Paraguay’s fiscal discipline in line with peersFiscal Balance as % of GDP, year-end 2018
Global leader in its exported goods, which ensures an externalbufferCurrent Account Balance as % of GDP, year-end 2018
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay, IMF world Economic Outlook April 2019, All Moody's rated Baa1-Baa3 peers extracted from:
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/rating
Paraguay average growth for 2014-18
(2,8)%(2,2)% (2,0)%
0,7%
2,9%
(2,3)%
(3,9)%
ParaguayBB/Ba1/
BB+
ColombiaBBB-/Baa2/
BBB
PanamaBBB+/Baa1/
BBB
PortugalBBB/Baa3/
BBB
CyprusBBB-/Ba2/
BBB-
Moody'sMedian
Baa1 - Baa3
SouthAmericaMedian
Dec.-2019
22,6%
39,4%
50,5%
102,5%
121,4%
55,1% 55,5%
ParaguayBB/Ba1/
BB+
PanamaBBB+/Baa1/
BBB
ColombiaBBB-/Baa2/
BBB
CyprusBBB-/Ba2/
BBB-
PortugalBBB/Baa3/
BBB
Moody'sMedian
Baa1 - Baa3
SouthAmericaMedian
(2018) 19.7%. As of 31-Oct-2019
(0,2)
(8,5)
(5,6)
(3,8)
(0,6)
(2,5)(2,2)
ParaguayBB/Ba1/
BB+
PanamaBBB+/Baa1/
BBB
CyprusBBB-/Ba2/
BBB-
ColombiaBBB-/Baa2/
BBB
PortugalBBB/Baa3/
BBB
Moody'sMedian
Baa1 - Baa3
SouthAmericaMedian
7
A debt profile that is conservative and supportive of growth
Debt Service ProfileTotal debt increase aligned with Paraguay's economic growth, yet still the
lowest in itscategory…
Government Debt as % of GDP (%), October 31, 2019
A diversified domestic and external funding profile
Total Government Debt in USD Bn, July 31, 2019
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay.
15,1%17,3% 18,2% 19.7%
22,6%
45,0%50,7%
53,1% 57,4%
57,7%
47,1%
48,9%
49,6% 50,8%
51,1%
2015 2016 2017 2018 oct.-19
Paraguay
Latam Average*
BB Group Average*
$310,9$383,9
$422,9$457,5
$380,7
2015 2016 2017 2018 sept.-19
External Debt Service (USD million)
4,0 4,8 5,6 6,4 7,2
1,51,5
1,61,6
1,6
5,56,3
7,28,0
8,815,1%
17,3%18,2%
19,7%
22,6%
2015 2016 2017 2018 As of Oct-2019
External Public Debt Domestic Public Debt Debt as % of GDP
IDB22.9%
IBRD8.1%
CAF6.1%
Other Multilateral
4,2%Bilateral
2,9%
Bonds54.6%
Official
Creditors
Private
Creditors
8
As of Oct-2019
Mortgage GuaranteeLaw Insolvency BillLaw to Simplify Company
Formation
Steadfast implementation of key policy reforms and priorities
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay
Laws referred to the National Congress
Bills about money
laundering, terrorist
financing and
organized crime
within the
framework of the
recommendations
made by the
International
Financial Action
Task Force for Latin
America (FATF)
Employment,
Competitiveness
and other Seeks to facilitate access to
funding for entrepreneurs for
investments and credit
Establishes a faster and low
cost framework for business
closure
Aims at facilitating the
recoveryof assets and cash
after a business closure
Aimed at improving the
business climate in Paraguay;
by facilitating and reducing
time and costs to opena
business
Enacted: Law 6480/2019
Paraguay is committed to enacting key policy reforms and has already promulgated laws in support of the following strategic priorities
Repeal of article 3 of Law 4673 that modifies and expands provisions for the creation of the Personal Income Tax.
Promulgated / Approved by the National Congress
Pending Approval by the National Congress
Creation of Criminal Courts of guarantees, of Criminal Enforcement, Courts of Sentence, Criminal Appeal; all specialized in Money Laundering, Drug Trafficking, Anti-kidnapping, Financing of Terrorism, Corruption and Organized Crime. Law 6379/19
Creation of the procedure for the Reception of Dissemination and Exclusion of Individuals and Legal Entities Issued by the Security Council of the United Nations Organization and modifies Law 4503/11 on the immobilization of Funds or Financial Assets. Law 6419
Modification of Law 5895/17 on the rules of transparency in the regime of Companies Incorporated by Shares. Law 6399/19 Modification of Law 5876/17 on the Administration of Seized and Commissioned Goods. Law 6396/19 Creation of the List of Final Beneficiaries of the Republic of Paraguay. Law 6446/19 Creation and typing of the Punishable Facts of Transnational Bribery. Enacted: Law 6340/19 Modification of Law 4024/10 on the Fight against Terrorism and incorporating the punishable facts of recruitment and indoctrination,
terrorist fighter abroad and apology of terrorism. Law 6408/19 Creation of the Special Procedure for the application of the Comiso, the Special Comiso, the Autonomous Comiso and the Deprivation
of Benefits and Earnings. Law 6431/19 Modification of the provisions of Law 1160/97 of the Criminal Code and Law 3440/08, and punishable facts of market manipulation
and others are created and typified. Law 6452/19
9
New Budget Law
Introduced budget-by-results
which incorporates additional
accountability to public
finances and cuts
discretionary spending
Tax Reform Reformed aimed to simplify and modernize the tax code. Law 6380/19
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*
9.8%
8.3%
2020 Budget
Estimation
31-Oct-2019
Certain events of 2019 reduced this year’s growth forecast
The new growth forecast for 2019 was recalibrated to 0,2% after a
significant drought contracted 2018/19 agricultural production…
• Adverse climate conditions have had a
negative impact on our soy production and
electric energy production.
• Together with the fall in soy prices, Paraguay’s
agricultural sector experienced a 6.2%
decrease as of December 2019, whereas
electricity and energy experienced a decrease
of 8.0% as of December 2019.
• High rainfall was responsible for a
deceleration in the construction sector both in
the private and the public sectors.
• Construction increased by 0.5% as of
December 2019.
• Negative spillovers from the slowdown of
agriculture, livestock and construction
sectors have lowered industrial
production.
Agriculture and energy ManufacturingConstruction
Climate conditions and regional headwinds are the main reasons to recalibrate the growth forecast
Tax Pressure Observed as % of GDP (Trend)
Tax Pressure Trend
Tax pressure*As % of GDP
…which has led us to face a cyclical situation…
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay
$40,0
$36,3 $36,3
$39,4
$41,0
$38,7
4,9%
3,1%
4,3%
5,0%
3,7%
0,2%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019F
Nominal GDP (USD bn)Real GDP Growth, % YoY
* Accumulated 3Q 19.
10
$ 360,7 $ 454,0
$ 558,1 $ 484,6
$ 796,9
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Timely policies have buffered the slowdown, showing results
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay (Situfin), Central Bank of Paraguay
… which, since April 2019, has translated into steady improvement in
Paraguay's monthly indicator of economic activity
YoY % monthly variation
The Paraguayan economy begins to show the first encouraging signs of improvement
• Important policy actions supporting production and trade, projects to improve business climate and reforms are
instrumental in explaining our gradual recovery of the economy
Acceleration of investments with high employment impact
Social expenditure to increaseprotections
Support to trade
and production
Public investment reached an all time high as of December2019…
Investment Expenditure in USD Millions
Average
2015-2019
$530.9
11
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay (Situfin), Central Bank of Paraguay Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay (Situfin), Central Bank of Paraguay
-0,8
-3,0
-4,8 -5,4
-2,8-1,7
0,71,2
6,3
4,8
1,5
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
US$ 40
Health
US$ 579Public Works
US$ 16 Agriculture
US$ 49Others
US$ 8Dwelling
US$ 30Security
US$ 35Education
With a budget structured for growth
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay . *Investment refers to Net Acquisition of Non-financial Assets. 1Excludes Taxes on products
With an investment that grows at a rate of 43.5%Investment distribution USD million as of October 2019
The structural result is lower than the effectiveCentral Government Finances (% of GDP)
… while we continue to work on diversifying our economy and expand our dynamic tertiary sectorPercent of Total Real GDP by Sector 2018, only Gross value added1 excludes Taxes on products
US$ 757Central
Government
Investment
(0,9)
(0,5) (0,6) (0,6)(0.7)
(1,3)(1,1) (1,1)
(1,3)
(2.8)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Operational Fiscal Balance
Global Fiscal Balance
Manufacturing 21.1%
Electricity, Water 8.7%Commerce11.7%
Household Services 4.7%
Restaurants and Hotels 2.7%
Government 9.3%
Primary 10.8%
Tertiary 49.1%
Real-estate Services 6.7%
Business Services 2.4%
Agriculture 9.1%
Transportation 4.0%
Communications 3.7%
Livestock, 2.3%
Forestry, Fishing, Mining 1.0%
Secondary 32.6 %
Construction 6.5%
Finance5.7%
Oct-2019
Oct-2019
Oct-2019
12
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay (Situfin), https://www.hacienda.gov.py/situfin/
Resulting in a healthy trade balance throughout the last years
Underpinned by its competitive profile in the region
Item
Indirect TaxRate 10% 17% 21% 19%
Corporate TaxRate 10% 34% 35% 25%
Trade Weighted
average duty(%)7.0% 10.0% 14.8% 5.8%
SocialSecurity
Contribution(*)25.5% 31% 40% 32%
EnergyCost
(c$/kWh)6.6 16.8 10.8 10.2
Lowest indirect tax rate in theregion
Lowest corporate tax rate in theregion
Lowest energy costs in theregion
Second Lowest Trade Weighted averageduty
A positive trade balance A positive Trade Balance in the 2015-2019(Q3) period
Source: Ministry of Finance, including data from Central Bank of Paraguay
(*) Sum of the Total Contribution to Social Security of the employer and the employee.
$11,10 $11,98$13,40 $13,80
$9,40
$(10,31) $(9,78) $(11,52) $(12,90) $(9,00)
(0,4)%3,6% 3,1%
(0,2)% (1,2)%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Q3)
Imports (USD bn) Exports (USD bn)
Current Account as % of GDP
0,8
2,2
1,9
0,8
0,4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (Q3)
Trade Balance (USD bn)
13
Sound monetary policy supported by a credible Central Bank…
Domestic interest rates have remained low to support domestic
consumptionNominal Interest Rate (%)(1)
Inflation remained well within the target band
(%)
Current inflation target band for 2018: 4.0% +/- 2.0%
High levels of International Reserves enhance stability
Source: Central Bank of Paraguay(1) Monetary Policy Interest Rate
(*) As of September 2018
$6,20$7,14
$8,15 $8,01 $8,008,5
11,4 12,09,9 11,1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total International Reserves USD bn
Reserves in Months of Imports (Months)
3.1% 3.9% 4.5% 3.2% 2.8%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI % Change Target Band Target Inflation
5,25
4,00
3
4
5
6
7
ma
r.-1
5
jun
.-1
5
sep
t.-1
5
dic
.-15
ma
r.-1
6
jun
.-1
6
sep
t.-1
6
dic
.-16
ma
r.-1
7
jun
.-1
7
sep
t.-1
7
dic
.-17
ma
r.-1
8
jun
.-1
8
sep
t.-1
8
dic
.-18
ma
r.-1
9
jun
.-1
9
sep
t.-1
9
dic
.-19
14
... and a well capitalized financial sector
Most of the loans are concentrated among Private Domestic Banks
and branches of foreign banks (2)
Total loans in the system as of October 31, 2019 USD 17.6 bn
Recent Developments on AML / CFT in 2019
• Part of the Paraguayan Strategic Plan is to strengthened the AML /
CFTregime
• Paraguay has made it a strategic priority to enact bills that improve
AML / CFT standards.
• Nine different bills have been enacted by congress that
strengthen these systems
• These laws aim to improve transparency in the financial
system and create procedures to enforce improved
standards
• Improvement in the 2019 Basel AML Index: Paraguay has
continued its trend of improvement in the Basel AML Index,
moving up to 14 in 2019
RWA’s remain stable, but are accompanied by a decrease inROE’s
that have been in line with a supply ofloans
Return on Equity
Regulatory Capital to Risk Weighted Assets
Banks are increasingly lending more, and NPL levels are low (1)
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay, Basel AML Index
$12,8$16,0 $15,0 $15,2
$17,7
1,8%
2,5%
2,8%2,7%
2,4%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Loans USD bn
Non-Performing Loans % of Total Loans
16,2%18,0% 18,5%
17,6% 17,7%
27,8%
23,8% 24,2%22.5%
24,6%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 31-oct.-19
Savings and Loans Cooperatives
11.9%
Financial Companies
3.7%
Direct Foreign
Subsidiaries
30.6% BNF
5.4%
Private Domestic
Local Majority
Property 47.0
Branches of
Foreign Banks
1.3%
15
January 2020 | Strictly Private & Confidential
Appendix
Projects with Private Financing
ROADS 2 & 7 – Duplication of 143 Km and improvement of 18 Km for US$ 507 million. The SPV “Rutas del Este” successfully allocated private bonds in the international market to finance part of the Project. The project is currently in construction phase.
BIOCEANICA ROAD PHASE I – Construction of 278 Km for US$ 443 million. 24 Km of the road was already delivered. The project is currently in construction phase.
ROAD SAN CRISTOBAL – NARANJAL – Construction of 47.2 Km for US$ 46 million. The project is currently in operative phase.
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay
17
Pipeline of Projects with Private Financing
PPP Program in Paraguay, US$ 700 million2 projects outstand Roads 1 y 6 for US$ 250 millionParaguay Hidroway US$ 200 millionWater & Sewage US$ 250 million
Turnkey Projects Program, US$ 820 millionBioceánico Phase II US$ 472 millionElectricity distribution US$ 300 million
Traditional financing projectsIn 2019, 38 projects were approved for a total of US$ 2,300 millionThe Investment System (SNIP) received 50 projects in different stages for US$ 3,000 millionBridge in the lower Chaco US$ 150 million
Private InitiativesParaguay Hidroway US$ 120 millionFerry US$ 84 million
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay
18
Structural Reform - Taxation
Source: Ministry of Finance of Paraguay, Central Bank of Paraguay
*Upon full implementation by 2023
19
New Legislation Passed to Modernize and Simplify the Tax system
EQUAL TREATMENT
JUST & FAIR RATES
COMPETITIVENESS
SIMPLIFIED CODE
MODERNIZATION
Same rules apply to all sectors, no privileges or special treatment
Each legal entity and individual will be taxed according to their capacity to pay
Simplified regimes designed to boost formalization and promote
competitiveness
Simplified text and streamlined processing to smooth settlement of taxes and
reduce collection costs
Standards based on International best practices to combat tax avoidance and
evasion
The New Law Provides
What will be done with the additional resources?
FUND FOR THE STRENGTHENING
OF INFRASTRUCTURE
AND HUMAN CAPITAL
(FOICAH)
HEALTH
0.4% of GDP
EDUCATION
0.2% of GDP
INFRASTRUCTURE
0.1% of GDP
Potential Increase in Direct Revenue Collection
0.7% of GDP = USD 300 MILLION*
USD 171 MILLION
USD 86 MILLION
USD 43 MILLION
January 2020 | Strictly Private & Confidential
Thank you