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Better Growth, Better Climate in Uganda SUPPORTING UGANDA’s GREEN GROWTH STRATEGY November 2015 – March 2016 A joint project by NCE’s Uganda Partnership (GGGI and NCE) REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Project rationale and objectives
2. Work to be undertaken
3. Project plan
4. Request for proposals: Guidelines
1. PROJECT RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES ABOUT THE NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY AND PROJECT OVERVIEW The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate (GCEC) is a major new international project to understand the extent to which effective economic development and climate action can go hand in hand, aimed at fostering decisions by the world’s governments, business and finance leaders to move to lower carbon and more climate-‐‑resilient patterns of economic growth and development. The Commission found that many of the policy and institutional reforms needed to revitalize growth and improve well-‐‑being over the next 15 years can also be critical to tackling climate risk. Commissioned by a group of seven countries (Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Korea, Norway, Sweden and the UK), the Commission is overseen by an International Commission comprising former heads of government and finance ministers and leaders in the fields of economics, business and finance, chaired by former Mexican President Felipe Calderon and Lord Nicolas Stern. More information can be found at www.newclimateeconomy.net. The project is undertaken by a global partnership of 8 research institutes and a core team led by Programme Director Helen Mountford. The Commissions flagship project, The New Climate Economy (NCE), produced its inaugural publication the Better Growth, Better Climate Report, published in September 2014, bringing together evidence from across a range of countries and sectors to demonstrate how economic growth and action on climate change can be achieved together. The report focused on the key sectors of cities, land use, and energy and how economic processes can be used to deliver the innovation, resource efficiency and infrastructure investment to build a low-‐‑carbon economy. An Advisory Panel of world-‐‑leading economists, chaired by Lord Nicholas Stern carried out an expert review of the work. On cities, the report demonstrated that nations could develop and pursue an alternative model of urban development through adopting more compact, connected, coordinated, and efficient forms of urban development to stimulate economic activity, attract investment, improve air quality and public health, enhance safety, help reduce poverty and avoid the substantial costs associated with sprawl, as well as reducing the carbon intensity of growth. Following the successful publication of Better Growth, Better Climate: the New Climate Economy Report in 2014, the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate produced a second report in July 2015: Seizing the Global Opportunity: Partnerships for a Better Growth, Better Climate. This report focused on how international collaborative efforts can deliver economic development and reduced climate risk to catalyze international climate action in the lead-‐‑up to COP21 in Paris in December. The NCE has acknowledged the importance of low-‐‑income economies in Africa in its analysis of the move towards a low-‐‑carbon future. Africa is represented on the Commission through Luísa Diogo (former Prime Minister of Mozambique), Ngozi Okonjo-‐‑Iweala (former Finance Minister of Nigeria), and Trevor Manuel (former Finance Minister of South Africa). In addition, Ethiopia acts as a commissioning country and the Ethiopian Development Research Institute is a research partner, with the other NCE research partners having extensive experience and on the ground presence in Africa (e.g. the Overseas Development Institute). The Commission was also advised by an Economics Advisory Panel, which again had African representation through Benno Ndulu (Governor, Central Bank of Tanzania). The New Climate Economy (NCE) through its partner institutes is undertaking a program of work between July 2015 and March 2016 to support African decision-‐‑makers explore how effective development can also yield co-‐‑benefits for reduced climate risk either through mitigation of GHG emissions or improved climate resilience. The NCE will engage at the highest levels of governments
in a small number of African countries to help the region understand the extent economic and social development paths also yield reduced climate risk. The NCE plans to use this work, as a starting point for longer-‐‑term engagement in low-‐‑income countries. This work will be centered around applying the work of wider NCE “special initiatives” to the specific context of low-‐‑income countries. This could include further work on economic and structural transformation, finance, and analysis of the systems of cities, energy and land use. The NCE’s “value add” here would be to bring world-‐‑class thinking through key partners to key decision makers at the highest political levels. The Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) are a founding partner institute of the New Climate Economy. In collaboration, the NCE secretariat and the GGGI Uganda team will work in partnership with others -‐‑ including the Department for International Development -‐‑ to analyse the key opportunities for green growth in Uganda to inform the GGGI country program and provide input into their advice to the Ugandan government around a number of areas, specifically: a national green growth strategy, green urban development, and job creation. The work will have one outcome for impact:
− Green growth is mainstreamed into Uganda key planning documents and policy making processes.
This outcome and positive impact will be supported by two key outputs:
− A report (with associated engagement with policymakers) to act as an input to the National Uganda Green Growth Strategy (UGGS) and to inform the development of a National Uganda Green Growth Implementation Roadmap.
− A strategic urban transitions assessment to inform a more detailed Green City Roadmap for Uganda.
This TOR sets out the background to the work and the proposed methodology. The work will be carried out to March 2016, whereby the results will be presented to the Ugandan government as part of GGGI’s policy advice. UGANDA PROJECT BACKGROUND The GGGI is currently in the scoping phase to set up a long-‐‑term program in Uganda, as agreed with the Government of Uganda. This scoping phase will run until end 2015, in lieu of a formal launch of a GGGI Uganda program in January 2016 and is being led by an on the ground scoping team. As a founding research institute of the NCE, the NCE and its secretariat will support the GGGI program and its advice to the Government of Uganda in partnership with others as core supporters of GGGI and the NCE partnership, including DFID.
GGGI are delivering strategic advice to the heart of government. GGGI have developed a relationship with the Vice President’s Office and the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MFPED). The Vice President’s office is essential for green growth to sustain a high profile in the government. The MFPED is the ministry that houses the National Planning Authority, the body responsible for seeing through the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of the NDP II. They will be essential in the implementation of a green growth plan or strategy. To formally discuss the work of GGGI the Government of Uganda (GoU) has set up a steering committee chaired by MFPED and including the Ministry of Water and Environment, Office of the Vice President, National Planning Authority, and the Uganda Small Scale Industries Association. The work will also inform the design and implementation of a range of other development partners working on macroeconomic and urban development including DFID, the World Bank, Cities Alliance, and UNDP.
Uganda has a set out a number of green growth priorities in the context of its national vision. Uganda has a number of pressing development issues which relate to maintaining economic growth, reducing poverty and ensuring shared prosperity for its population. Against this backdrop the following have been identified as key green growth priorities in discussions:
The development of the Uganda National Green Growth Strategy. Uganda has a very well-‐‑articulated development vision in the Vision 2040, and have committed to become a middle income country by 2020. However, many challenges remain for sustained and sustainable economic and social development.1 While there was some progress in relation to growth and poverty reduction in the First National Development Plan (2010-‐‑2015) there is still more to be done.
Green growth and sustainable development are basic tenets of the Uganda Vision 2040 and the National Development Plan II-‐‑2015-‐‑2020. Vision 2040 recognizes that “Ugandans desire a green economy and clean environment where the ecosystem is sustainably managed and the livability of the urban systems greatly improved”2. On the other hand, NDP II commits that Uganda will adopt green growth practices . There is clearly a need to ensure consistency between the longer term vision in Vision 2040 and the short term plan in the NDPs. The UGGS must supplement this link.
Recognizing the need to incorporate green growth into development 3 , the Government have committed to developing the Uganda National Green Growth Strategy (UGGS), which will serve as a broad foundational structure to integrate existing ideas and initiatives for green growth into the country’s development plans. This will be to support the Implementation of 2nd National Development Plan (NDPII) to realize its Vision 2040. The milestones of Uganda National Green Growth Strategy are divided into two: 1) visionary work and a zero draft before COP 21 and 2) a strategy to be completed by July 2016. The Government and GGGI agreed that GGGI will provide technical support for developing the Uganda National Green Growth Strategy, in collaboration with UNDP and Ministry of Finance in 2015. This will then form the basis of a longer term program for GGGI in Uganda.
Green City Development. Uganda’s urban population will increase from six million in 2013 to over 20 million in 20404. For instance, Kampala is a home and living environment for an estimated 1.75 million residents; and has an estimated daily work force of 4.5 million with an annual demographic growth rate of 3.9%5. The GoU has identified green city development as a national development priority in the NDPII with a focus on two modes of development. First, the capital city of Kampala is facing unprecedented urbanization and inadequate infrastructure. This will pose a risk to economic growth in the coming years, particularly in the areas of housing, transportation and water/sanitation. The Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA), with the support of the Ministry of Water and Environment, needs assistance in implementing its Low Carbon Development and Climate Change Resilient Strategy (supported by the French Embassy) to address these needs. Second, Uganda is considering how to create secondary cities as economic growth poles. The GoU has identified the development of regional cities as a strategy for managing urbanization and needs support developing an action plan to carry out the strategy.6 For urbanization, the World Bank describe “The key policy challenge is to ensure that the 1 For a detailed description of the current economic context in Uganda see World Bank (2015) The Growth Challenge: Can Uganden Cities get to work. Uganda Economic Update 5th Edition. 2 The http://npa.ug/wp-‐content/themes/npatheme/documents/vision2040.pdf 3 Despite a lack of full mainstreaming, there is a good base to build on. For example CDKN have undertaken significant analysis of climate risk for the Government of Uganda. More details here: http://cdkn.org/project/economic-‐assessment-‐of-‐the-‐impacts-‐of-‐climate-‐change-‐in-‐uganda/ 4 The fifth economic update report, “The Growth Challenge, can Uganda Cities work?, 2015 5 The KCCA strategic Plan, 2014/15-‐2018/19 6 World Bank (2015) covers the high level challenges well in terms of the link between urbansation and economic development.
next phase of urbanization is well managed, with appropriate urban planning policies and enforcement, accompanied by the appropriate provision of public services, reliable transport and affordable housing”.
To support this challenge, GGGI will support green secondary city development in Uganda through developing a comprehensive green growth roadmap for secondary cities in Uganda, in order to maximize green growth outcomes in the urbanization process. GGGI will work with the Ministry of Lands and Urban development, the Ministry of Water and Environment, KCCA and one pilot secondary city (tbd) to pursue a green growth path that creates jobs, enhances productivity, and maximizes energy efficiency outcomes.
Job creation and tackling youth under-‐‑and unemployment. There is a large challenge in Uganda of youth unemployment. Moreover, unemployment in Uganda remains predominantly an urban problem with the unemployment rate in urban areas more than three times higher than in rural areas. According to a Uganda Bureau of Statistics survey conducted in 2010, the unemployment rate was highest in Kampala (11%) and lowest in Western and Eastern regions (2%) respectively7. As the Ugandan economy attempts to go “green”, this will create employment opportunities but these opportunities will need to be matched to skills, training and investment in human capital. Better Growth, Better Climate for Uganda This collaboration is well placed to support the Government of Uganda. The NCE partnership will support the work of the GGGI team, and its experiences across its member countries with its global research. The NCE’s global research has resoundingly shown that actions that promote positive economic outcomes, at the same time provide benefits in terms of reduced emissions and improved resilience. The work in Uganda will apply the learning’s and approach of the NCE into the Ugandan context. Through its global work the NCE developed a “Growth and Climate framework” for understanding the interaction for economic development and climate risk, presented below.8
7 http://www.ubos.org/UNHS0910/chapter4_%20time%20use.html 8 Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2014. Better Growth, Better Climate. and Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2015. Seizing the Global Opportunity. Partnerships for Better Growth and a Better Climate.
Ultimately of concern in Uganda is development that both delivers economic and social outcomes, and does not do so at the expense of environmental sustainability. From an economic perspective, recent years have seen a strong revival of interest among policy makers and researchers in economic transformation -‐‑ the shift of economic activity, employment and resources from low to high productivity activities and sectors -‐‑ as a central element in development. The African Union’s long-‐‑term vision for African development in its Agenda 2063 report, for example, aims for “Economies [that are] are structurally transformed to create shared growth, decent jobs and economic opportunities for all”. 9
Applying and adapting the framework developed in the NCE 2014 Report: Better Growth, Better Climate, the project will seek to highlight opportunities for policies, institutional changes and investments that can help both promote more rapid economic transformation and growth, as well as help reduce the climate risks facing Uganda. The work will build on the NCE-‐‑GGGI partnership which has a history of successful collaboration in low-‐‑income countries, including in Ethiopia where its research on developing an effective urbanization strategy for economic growth and reduced climate risk was incorporated into the Ethiopian governments strategic planning.10 OBJECTIVES Given the context above, the aim of the project supporting the work of GGGI Uganda Country Program, is twofold: 9 African Union (2013). 10 Woldeyes, F. and Bishop R. (2015) Unlocking the Power of Ethiopia’s Cities. A Report by the New Climate Economy Partnership.
• To assess the opportunities for Uganda’s future economic transformation and the role of green growth. This will ensure that climate change and green growth considerations can be incorporated into National Policy frameworks and ensure a high quality conceptual and analytical base for providing support to the Ugandan Green Growth Strategy development currently underway. This will then be used as a basis for GGGI’s technical support and implementation of the strategy in a national Ugandan Green Growth Implementation Roadmap by the end of 2016. This will support the delivery of output one of GGGI’s in country program-‐‑National Uganda Green Growth Strategy (UGGS) complemented and National Uganda Green Growth Implementation Roadmap developed
• To develop a “urban transitions assessment” to strategically guide Uganda’s urbanization process and their green city development. This Spatial Economic Strategy would assess the economic, social, and environmental performance of a range of national urbanization scenarios, including consideration of carbon abatement and climate risk, with the objective of providing a sound analytical basis on which the government can look to prioritize the focus it provides to the development of different clusters of cities across the country to meet the objectives set in its Vision 2040. This spatial strategy would be used to inform GGGI’s development for the GoU a comprehensive Green City Roadmap by the end of 2016 (i.e. output two of GGGI’s in country work). This would include advice on green city development including institutional and policy reform needed to stimulate investment and allow for the preparation of bankable projects, and the work of other department partners
The work, linking national level urban polity to the local level, would serve to highlight the major choices facing Ugandan policy makers in promoting patterns of urbanisation that support inclusive economic development. This would include an innovative, flexible and transparent analytical assessment framework for guiding urban development patterns based on their economic, social, and environmental performance. The work would build on previous NCE-‐‑GGGI work in Ethiopia, summarized in the report ‘Unlocking the power of Ethiopia’s Cities’ which was successfully launched in February 2015 in partnership with the Government of Ethiopia and key development partners, and which has helped to inform the new Five Year Plan.
2. PROPOSED ACTIVITIES AND SCOPE OF WORK STRUCTURE OF WORK In the context of the objectives above we have highlighted two outputs of the work, with detailed activities described in detail in the following section. Output A: A green growth macroeconomic assessment conducted informing Green Growth Planning and Implementation in Uganda. To ensure a full mainstreaming of green growth into national development planning there is a need to understand the development context and barriers to development. A green growth transition will be cross sector and there is a need to understand the economic opportunities which can support low carbon, climate resilient development and the potential trade-‐‑offs from green growth interventions. This assessment will define a framework to analyze the intersection between economic transformation and climate change, and then through analysis of green growth opportunities in a 1-‐‑2 key areas (beyond urbanization) to inform implementation planning. This will inform both the high level strategic vision for green growth in Uganda as part of the UGGS and also form the basis of subsequent implementation incorporating finance, institutions, and capacity building which will form part of a Ugandan Green Growth Implementation Roadmap being
undertaken by GGGI to be delivered by the end of 2016. It will draw on existing analysis11 and use of analytical models where appropriate produce new analysis to inform policy reform. This component will look at the countries development ambitions with a focus on the required structural transformation needed to deliver the countries middle-‐‑income ambition by 2020 and in the context of its longer-‐‑term development vision in Vision 2040. This will include the key constraints to low carbon, climate resilient growth, and the particular role of industry in supporting the required transition and related structural transformation. It will also link this development ambition to how low-‐‑carbon and climate resilient growth may offer better alternatives than a ‘conventional’ growth path. Output B: Pathways to green urban development and economic transformation. To assist the spatial delivery of the 2nd National Development Plan, this output will produce a Ugandan “urban transitions assessment” to look in an integrated way at the macroeconomic costs of business as usual urbanisation and the net economic, social, and environmental performance of alternative urban pathways, with the objective of helping to build consensus around a national urban vision including the role of secondary cities outside Kampala. The assessment will outline the major policy reforms required to enable the national urban vision and the associated infrastructure and financing requirements. The assessment would be situated within an analysis of the Ugandan institutional, planning, policy, financing capacity to act and the political economy of reform. The analysis will set the basis for ‘deep dive’ Green City Roadmap which will be developed by GGGI in country team to the end of 2016. This will include a focus on articulating how to link national level policy reform with sub-‐‑national policy action (so-‐‑called multi-‐‑level governance or ‘vertical’ integration issues), and link to existing programmes in Uganda at the city level by institutions such as by the World Bank and Cities Alliance
The project will be an input to the Government of Uganda’s macroeconomic, environmental and urban strategy development, emphasizing the link between economic development and climate change. This will be delivered directly to the GGGI national steering group chaired by MFPED. The final outputs will also be discussed with high level government officials through high-‐‑level representatives of the partner institutions (e.g. the Director General of GGGI) and including relevant members of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate (e.g Trevor Manuel and Ngozi Okonjo-‐‑Iweala). OUTPUT A: A GREEN GROWTH MACROECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
Tasks
The tasks for the work will go through the following six-‐‑step process. The exact emphasis of the technical resource occurring at each stage, and the mix of quantitative and qualitative analysis would be decided in the inception phase of the work after a review of strategic need, in discussion with Government and the NCE partnership. This review will decide the emphasis on strategic analysis and more concrete operational issues to deliver green growth as part of the UGGS. 1. Setting out Uganda’s high-‐‑level development vision to inform the overall objectives of the
Ugandan National Green Growth Strategy: An assessment of the existing broad economic strategy and related visions of development including Vision 2040. This includes an analysis of the political setting and drivers for change, and mapping institutions and key development players. This will include reviewing Uganda’s development vision and main components covering
11 http://www.opml.co.uk/projects/developing-‐integrated-‐macroeconomic-‐model-‐uganda
the broad strategy for development (e.g. export led growth, shift to manufacturing, role of extractives and mining, etc): • Economic. A review of the distribution of and drivers of proposed economic growth and
key elements of the strategy. • Social. A review of current social issues and ambitions including poverty incidence, water
and energy access, and health outcomes. • Environmental: Covering the current plans and ambitions on climate change and wider
environmental sustainability.
2. Assess and adapt the high level NCE Growth and Climate framework for its relevance to Uganda and the low-‐‑income context to inform the UGGS. To carry out the analysis in the remaining steps, this component will develop a framework for interrogating the overlap between economic development and climate change issues. This will deliver a defined methodology to carry through the rest of the analysis to ensure intellectual integrity. This will draw on existing work on key drivers and constraints to growth (e.g. an inclusive growth diagnostic as undertaken by DFID, Economic country reviews as undertaken by the World Bank, and the multi-‐‑dimensional policy reviews as undertaken by the OECD). The methodology will also be informed by scoping of existing relevant analysis in Uganda and also inputs from GGGI and NCE experts.
3. Set out the key barriers and opportunities to growth: Drawing on existing literature, a review in more detail of the national growth and development drivers including historical performance, future growth projections, and key constraints to growth with a focus on structural transformation and poverty reduction. The review would cover three things to inform the UGGS (although the exact structure would be confirmed by the methodology defined in step 2): § The short view -‐‑ Historic patterns of growth. This should be a review of economic growth
performance of the Ugandan economy and key drivers of growth and development. This includes analysis of the following indicators:
− Sectoral composition of GDP and employment (by high-‐‑level sector and subsector) − Demand side growth composition (i.e. balance between public and private
investment) − Key trading partners and link to the external trade environment − Key monetary indicators (e.g. inflation, debt, fiscal balance, and real exchange
rate), financial sector indicators (access to credit, bond market readiness, banking quality), and the fiscal sector (government receipts and expenditure including key sources).
− Key poverty and social indicators including (GDP per capita, distribution of wealth and income, and various other key social development indicators).
§ The long view -‐‑ future direction of economic development and key opportunities for structural transformation. A review of the aspirations and key sectoral opportunities for medium term growth. This analysis should focus on:
− A critical assessment extent of which historic sources of growth and related changes in the economy will be sustained in the future (i.e. is economic development sustainable?)
− A sectoral description of Agriculture, Exports and Services, Industry, and Extractives covering the structure of the sectors, a breakdown of the labour force, key markets and opportunities for future development.
− A review of cross-‐‑cutting issues such as finance, trade and infrastructure, human capital investment, and political governance.
− A view of the regional, gender, and other group distinctions as appropriate § Key challenges for economic development. The key strategic challenges for the Ugandan
economy and key constraints to realizing development vision. This will include an assessment of 4-‐‑8 key barriers that are crucial to long-‐‑term economic development. These factors could be cross-‐‑cutting or along sector lines:
− A number of cross cutting factors such as macroeconomic management, infrastructure development, public utility management, investment climate, access to finance, constraints to export led growth, competiveness, skills, etc
− A number of sectorial factors in agriculture (e.g. availability of secure land), manufacturing (market integration), services, and extractives.
4. Set out a climate diagnostic to understand the role of climate change in development
outcomes in Uganda: Based on the growth diagnostic outcome, there is then a need to assess the role of climate change as a barrier and opportunity for development and wider structural transformation. Ensuring this is couched within Uganda’s development and climate visions this will include the following: • An assessment of climate impacts will impact key development pathways. Uganda are
vulnerable to climate impacts and therefore need to build resilience into their development planning. This should summarize the existing work on climate impacts in Uganda.12
• An assessment of different possible emissions pathways in key areas. Uganda’s current carbon footprint is very low and the government has not developed a detailed emissions reduction strategy, but this component will briefly assess potential future emissions pathways on cities, energy, industry and agriculture. This should -‐‑ where possible -‐‑ include a benchmark against other African economies with emissions strategies on possible low-‐‑emissions pathways.13 The cities component will feed into the complement work module outlined below.
• Other environmental constraints. Other notions of sustainability should also be assessed including local air pollution, water availability.
5. Based on the preceding steps focus on 1-‐‑2 sector’s opportunities for green growth to
unlock structural transformation in Uganda: Based on the both the growth and climate diagnostic this will identify 1-‐‑2 key areas that need to be addressed to unlock growth opportunities and structural transformation, whilst at the same time reduce the emissions intensity of growth and climate risk. These areas would be identified in collaboration with key stakeholders and ensure fit with existing analysis in a way that it is complementary.14. It would could be high level strategic analysis as needed or be focused on key operational and partnership issues to take into account the following: • The current policy architecture in the area of choice, including key gaps on delivery • The key actions and actions for green growth to be delivered • The relevant actors who would be responsible for policy and delivery and their current
capacity and resources to deliver. These areas would be assessed against the extent which approaches to deliver economic and social development can also be compatible with reduced climate risk. This should be in addition to urbanisation that is discussed below and should also be “demand-‐‑led” in discussion with the GoU. These could be related to energy, industry, or land use , or some other area of cross cutting policy such as a job creation assessment.
6. Recommendations for policy makers. Based on the analysis of development and climate in Uganda, recommendations for key areas of policy reform will be provided. These interventions could be a combination of economic and non-‐‑economic policy instruments, access to international finance and additional areas such as the need for further analysis or institutional reforms. This should inform directly the UGGS and the future GGGI development of a Ugandan Green Growth Implementation Roadmap.
12 For example http://cdkn.org/project/economic-‐assessment-‐of-‐the-‐impacts-‐of-‐climate-‐change-‐in-‐uganda/ 13 Emissions analysis is currently being undertaken for the GoU, and this project may be an input into the analysis but needs to be further explored with key partners and the GoU. 14 See footnote 15 above.
OUTPUT B: PATHWAYS TO GREEN CITY DEVELOPMENT AND STRUCTUAL TRANSFORMATION Tasks The proposed urban transitions assessment would include the following tasks. Aspects of developing and testing this methodology will be an iterative process, building on lessons learnt from Ethiopia. The exact emphasis of the technical resource occurring at each stage, and the mix of quantitative and qualitative analysis would be decided in the inception phase of the work after a review of strategic need, in discussion with Government and the NCE partnership. This review will decide the emphasis on strategic analysis and more concrete operational issues to deliver sustainable urbanization. 1. Objectives and situation analysis
• The current macroeconomic and urban context, including a description of how urban development links to wider macroeconomic development and structural transformation, fiscal constraints (e.g. debt obligations), and role of the informal economy and informal settlements
• The current political context for urbanization, including identification of key strategies and institutions and constraints to reform nested within a strong drivers of change analysis
• Future drivers of urbanisation, including reviewing government proposals 2. Urban demand and supply model. Establishing the key national economic and spatial
opportunities and constraints using GIS mapping where information available. This should show economically and geospatially for both now and a given target year (agreed with government): • The geospatial and economic mapping of the historic pattern of urbanisation • The current urban structure at an aggregate level and for individual cities • Assessment of competing economic uses for urban land conversion (e.g. for Agriculture,
Energy, and Industry) • Current economic activity including links to regional and global markets and degrees of
market access • An assessment and spatial mapping of key climate and environmental risks and constraints
including water availability and risk of floods, droughts and soil erosion • Proximity of urban centers to minerals and natural resources • Energy and transport and communication infrastructure
3. Benchmarking and alternative pathways -‐‑ scenario development. Using step 1 and 2, the development of up to four economic and related spatial urban development scenarios, defining key qualitative and quantitative indicators with which to assess the scenarios covering their economic, social, environmental performance. The scenarios should draw on the lessons from relevant historic urban transitions relevant to the country and summarised in a series of case studies. The scenarios should:
• Include a Business as Usual (BAU) forecast/scenario. • Take into account the following:
a. The role of secondary cities to spur growth and regional inclusion based on their comparative advantage
b. Types of economic activity including the link to markets and the opportunities for growth corridors (scenarios would be constructed to emphasize different levels of development and the share of particular sectors including oil, minerals, agri-‐‑processing, light manufacturing, and services).
c. The type of rural to urban linkage and integration that would be seen under different scenarios, including links to the countries wider macroeconomic strategy and structural transformation
d. The impacts of climate change, and other environmental risks • Cost the historic and future economic, social, and environmental consequences of BAU vs
alternatives, informed by deep dive case studies in a range of cities, drawing on the methodology employed by Litman for NCE (2014) and currently being piloted in India.15
4. Options analysis and preferred urbanisation scenario. An indicator framework that
qualitatively and (where possible) quantitatively assesses the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different urban and infrastructure development patterns, including a defined process of engagement with government and other partners to develop the scenarios and determine a preferred option based on best practice techniques in inclusive scenario development (e.g. focus group discussions). This would include: • An agreed shortlist of key indicators drawing on key bodies work on indicators for better
growth (economic, social, environmental) and urbanization pathways (integration). • An assessment tool for policymakers to highlight the merits of different scenarios. This will
ideally be quantitative with accompanying qualitative narrative description, highlighting key choices that policymakers will need to make, defining short term, medium term and long term decisions.
• Summarising key economic returns to different scenarios (e.g. such as returns to prudent urban planning)
• Highlighting where key uncertainties lie in the data analysis and limitations of the approach • Defining a long list of key infrastructure requirements across transport, energy, waste,
buildings, and other relevant sectors for each scenario
5. High level Infrastructure, technology, and financing requirements. Once agreed with government, more detailed infrastructure and financing requirements for the short listed scenarios will be developed based on a top down approach combined with a bottom up, case study assessment for major urban centres, aggregated to the national level. This will include a qualitative assessment of the relative infrastructure costs of the different scenarios. Where possible a more detailed quantitative assessment of the economic, social, and environmental net benefits of the scenarios and the associated major infrastructure and technology investments based on a range of key metrics will be undertaken (e.g. job creation, improved access to electricity provision, monetarised reductions in energy use, access to safe and reliable water, improved transport provision, and reductions in air pollutants and emissions -‐‑ i.e. including so-‐‑called co-‐‑benefits). The work should focus on 3-‐‑4 major cross agglomeration interventions (s) such as scaling up specific intra and inter-‐‑city urban mobility investments. This module might include relevant case studies.
6. Set out the operational and partnership issues to ensure capacity to act. This would provide an assessment of the national ‘capacity to act’ on the emerging plan in terms of (i) national urban governance – including horizontal and vertical governance; (ii) national planning policy; and (iii) national, regional, and city level infrastructure and financing arrangements. This will explicitly inform the spectrum of applicable policies and financing strategies in component 7.
7. Policies. This would assess the existing policy and regulatory framework for encouraging and
supporting smarter urban growth, and based on the assessment of the national capacity to act,
15 Todd Litman (2014), Analysis of Public Policies that Unintentionally Encourage and Subsidize Urban Sprawl, New Climate Economy
outline a range of feasible options for strengthening and enhancing national level policy and implementation mechanisms covering:
• Strategic planning: e.g. strengthening national economic development strategies, enhancing
national planning policy frameworks and spatial planning capacities, and national urban infrastructure and financing strategies
• Regulatory reform: e.g. reforms to density standards, density bonuses to support compact urban development with a hierarchy of higher-‐‑density, mixed-‐‑use clusters around public transport nodes
• Pricing mechanisms: e.g. eliminating under-‐‑pricing of transport fuels, reforms to land and development taxes to favour brownfield redevelopment
• Finance mechanisms – focused on mobilizing and redirecting BAU urban infrastructure investment e.g. boosting domestic resource mobilisation to underpin creditworthiness building on Kampala’s creditworthiness initiative, expanding city powers with regard to land use management, local energy and transport systems, ‘revolving funds’ for newhousing development, greater use of land value capture to finance large-‐‑scale urban infrastructure, use of municipal green bonds, and exchanges or dedicated vehicles to match infrastructure projects with financial backers
8. Final Report -‐‑ Strategy and Action Plan. A final report will be developed and launched with
key country partners synthesizing the approach, findings of the analysis and recommendations for integration into national planning processes. This will include a set of recommendations and next steps for public policy, and details of more in-‐‑depth analysis that could be required to execute on the emerging strategy. This will then be integrated into the UGGS and wider policy documents and be used as a starting point to develop a comprehensive Green City Roadmap through the GGGI in country team by the end of 2016.
3. PROJECT PLAN TIMELINE AND OUTPUTS The work will be divided into an (i) inception/development phase; and (ii) delivery phase. The inception phase will focus on developing the analytical framework and validating the approach, while the delivery phase will focus on the actual running and reporting of the analysis. The outputs are aligned with the key milestones of the GGGI work program in Uganda. The key outputs and dates will be: 1. Inception engagement to finalize scope of work in this TOR (not carried out by external
consultants). An initial joint NCE-‐‑GGGI engagement visit to discuss the work and finalise key questions (w/c November 16th 2015), and including a small number of targeted meetings to engage on the content of the work and develop data. This will result in a short interim report to finalise the scope of work and it links to ongoing policy work in Uganda, including highlighting where the emphasis of the analysis should be. This will be led by the NCE Secretariat and GGGI team, working in partnership with other development partners and the GoU.
2. Interim reports to set out detailed methodology and exact specification of analysis. Two interim papers (one for each component) covering key aspects of the methodology and analytical approaches and emerging findings (end November/Early December 2015)
3. Initial report and validation workshops. A workshop to validate findings and discuss
outputs as a final stage to input into the work. These workshops would be led by GGGI and NCE and involve engagement with experts (February 2016).
4. Draft final report. Draft final papers for final sign off by NCE, GGGI, and other project partners
and then subsequently to be presented to the GoU. This will include a short discussion paper highlighting next steps and implications for the GGGI country program. In light of the expected continued work program the work will highlight concrete implications for GGGI’s engagement in Uganda post March 2016. (End March 2016).
5. External launch of the report (not carried out by external consultants). These reports will
be presented to the Government of Uganda at a public event and/or through bilateral discussions with senior policymakers, and potentially involving members of the Global Commission and/or Delivery Steering Group. The date of the final presentations will be determined and aligned to the wider GGGI work program. (Between April and July 2016)
TEAM AND ROLES A consortium of partners will lead the work as part of a ‘hybrid team’ mode of delivery. The parties involved in the work will be the NCE core secretariat, GGGI team members involved in the GGGI Uganda program, and consultants to carry out the detailed analytical work.
The work will be overseen by the GGGI Uganda program in the context of its wider work program in Uganda with the NCE secretariat in a supporting role. The roles and responsibilities of GGGI and NCE are described below.
The GGGI team will: − Lead the relationships with the GoU and be responsible for the ownership of the work
outputs in the government
− Lead the engagements with stakeholders in Uganda related to the Ugandan National Green Growth Strategy (e.g. UNDP)
− Provide strategic oversight of the analysis and act as expert reviewer of the outputs of the work
− Ensure the outputs are well aligned to its overall work program in Uganda and will inform effective green growth planning and implementation in Uganda
− Identify and link the analytical team to relevant Ugandan technical experts and civil servants.
The NCE team will: − Lead the technical outputs of the work, and ensure the successful delivery of the analysis
through NCE partners and external consultants. − Undertake any procurement and administrative duties in undertaking the work outputs
described − Support coordination and foster teamwork across the NCE and GGGI to best deliver the
required results. − Provide technical input to the work and guide the analysis, including making available
supporting NCE background documents. − Ensure the work has world-‐‑class expertise and appropriate resourcing for the benefit of GGGI
and the GoU − Link the NCE’s wider work on economic transformation in low-‐‑income countries to
BUDGET
The work will have a budget for external consultants of $450,000 USD. This will be made up of:
− Up to $200,000 for component A − Up to $250,000 for component B
Propositions of an exceptional quality can be extended to increase the total budget up to $500,000. How the additonal funds would be spent should be laid out.
FUNDING The funding for this work will be from the NCE core budget, with in kind contributions from GGGI Uganda.
4. REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS: GUIDELINES
Please indicate your initial expression of interest by 13th November to [email protected]
If you wish to submit a formal proposal the deadline for submission is 20th November (13:00 CET); see below further information on completing the proposal. Clarifications on technical and administrative questions should be sent by 18th November – all questions received with answers will be shared with all bidders.
Proposal guidelines and requirements
This Request for Proposal document is dated 10th November 2015. The proposal must contain the signature of a duly authorised officer or agent of the company submitting the proposal.
The price you quote should be inclusive. If your price excludes certain fees or charges, please provide a detailed list of excluded fees with an explanation of the nature of those fees.
If the execution of work to be performed by your organisation requires the hiring of sub-‐‑contractors you must clearly state this in your proposal. Sub-‐‑contractors must be identified and the work they will perform must be defined.
The New Climate Economy project has allocated $450,000 for this piece of work split between Component A ($200,000) and Component B ($250,000). Bids of exceptional quality can be extended to $500,000 if details of how the additional funds are to be allocated are set out. Interested bidders can submit proposals for one or both components as appropriate. Careful consideration will be given to the synergies identified between the two components.
This work will feature input by a variety of stakeholders and will be subject to NCE’s high standards for peer review and publication. All deliverables will be NCE-‐‑branded, with any exceptions considered on a case-‐‑by-‐‑case basis. All publications produced for this project will include on the inside cover an acknowledgement of funding from UK Aid from the UK government.
Please use the following as a guideline to format your proposal:
Length and Font Size: Please use fonts no smaller than 10 point. Maximum proposal length including title page, cover letter, proposal, qualifications and budget should not exceed 20 pages.
Cover Letter: Please ensure it is signed by the person or persons authorized to sign on behalf of the organization (1-‐‑2 pages).
Title Page: Please include your organization’s name, address, web site address, telephone number, fax number, e-‐‑mail address and primary contact person.
Proposal: Discuss your proposed methodology, including the staffing model, workplan, timeline and deliverables (4-‐‑6 pages).
Qualifications: Provide the information requested in the qualifications section (6-‐‑10 pages).
Budget and Fees: List budgets as requested.
Qualifications
The proposal should include: a description of your organisations experience that is relevant to this project; a description your firm’s organisational capacity to deliver this work; information on the team that will be assigned to this project, including each person’s role and what proportion of their time will be dedicated to this (please include a brief background summary for each key staff member assigned to the project); your proposed plan for delivering on the requirements, including a staffing model, workplan and timeline; your terms and conditions of engagement.
Staff resources and integration
This piece of work is an important element of and will need to integrate with the Africa workstream of the New Climate Economy. Please also briefly describe how you intend to communicate and coordinate with the team at NCE.
To support this piece of work, NCE will provide approximately 3 days a week of staff time to assist with the project. NCE expects the applying institutions to dedicate full-‐‑time analyst (s) and a Project Director to oversee the work with relevant expertise.
Evaluation Criteria
The following criteria will form the basis upon which New Climate Economy will evaluate proposals with an equal weighting for each criteria.
Major Criteria Details & Sub-‐‑Criteria
Country knowledge and presence of Uganda and wider African region
Experience and organizational presence in Uganda, as well as the wider region.
Macroeconomics
Demonstrated practical, substantive work on the macroeconomics of green growth and structural transformation, including work advising developing and emerging market country governments, as well as understanding the economic and social context of adaptation and mitigation activities.
Urbanisation Demonstrated practical, substantive work on the economics and financing of sustainable urbanization and urban infrastructure at the national and city level
Work plan and understanding of project requirements
Quality of the proposed work plan corresponding to the terms of reference, including the organization and selection of tasks, cooperation with GGGI and country government staff, milestone planning, and how to maximize synergies between components etc.
Qualifications of team Qualifications and experience of professional staff and consultants, including general qualifications, project-‐‑related experience and overseas/country experience.
Policy reform and Experience building the capacity for policy reform in developing countries, as well as working with major NGOs or international
capacity building organizations
Value for money Any fees quoted for support represents value for money.
Contract Terms
The NCE project will negotiate contract terms upon selection. All contracts are subject to review by the legal counsel of the New Climate Economy’s partner institutes. A project will be awarded upon signing of an agreement or contract, which outlines terms, scope, budget and other necessary items.
Closing date
The closing date for submission of proposals 20th November (13:00 CET). Proposals will be evaluated immediately thereafter. Work is expected to commence w/c 23rd November.
Any queries should be directed to Russell Bishop, Senior Economist at the NCE [email protected]
