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Pune, India, 13 – 15 December 2010
ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 Beyond the Internet? - Innovations for
future networks and services
Tadao SaitoProfessor Emeritus, the University of Tokyo
CTO, Toyota Info-Technology Center
Requests for communication performance from connected vehicle of the future
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 2
Market Back Ground for Future Communication
Global telecommunication market is apparently saturated after rapid expansion of recent 20 years
Global penetration of communication equipmentCost reduction of hardware. Saturation of demand in traditional human use.
New market replacing Human to Human communication is needed to realize further growth.
Creation of Machine to Machine communication market having a size equivalent to human communication market.
Vehicle communication have been studied in recent 15 yearsHome networking is also a candidate for M2M communication. Recently Smart Grid attract interest as new market for machine to
machine communication
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 3
Saturation of IT Market
Communication Computers
Terminals1950
108 105
1970109 107
1990109 109
personalize2010
1011
ubiquitous2030
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 4
contents
Changes in IT environmentsCommunication Services for vehiclesMarket Growth through M2M communication
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 5
contents
Changes in IT environmentsCommunication Services for vehiclesMarket Growth through M2M communication
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 6
Traditional technology developments
Communication technology has been developed starting from human communication in early stage. A lot of efforts are paid for improvement of performance and cost reduction.Multimedia applications for human marketBroadband communication wirless and wirelineExtension of range without repeater.Mobility management of human speed.Security to keep networkRecent requests for low carbon systems
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 7VNC-Oct-2009
N-ISDN
PHS
1.2k
2.4k
9.6k
32k
1.5M
2M
10M
100M
Transmission
speed
video
TV conference
G3FAX
PC communication
Voice
Short message
home office city suburban rural
Service area
Wireless LAN
CATV
B-ISDN
FPLMTS
(3rd Generation)
Digital cellular
Analogue cellular
Mobile satellite
pager
64k
A book titled Radio multimedia of year 2000 published May 1995 in Japanese
Proposal of combination of multiple radios in 1994 in Japanese government report which is the source of contribution for B3G in 2002.
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 8
As a result of effort a lot of communication systems having different performance ware developedDifferent systems have been developed mainly from seeds driven ideas. Users are requested to cope with coexistence of different systems.Use of combinations of different systems are responsibility of users.Cognitive adaptation of user terminal is needed for smooth use of multiple systems, however this technology is far from reality.
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 9VNC-Oct-2009
1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
F IG U R E 2
I llu s tr a t io n o f c a p a b i lit ie s o f I M T - 2 0 0 0 a n d s y st e m s b e y o n d I M T -2 0 0 0
E n h an c e m e n t
D e n o te s in te rc o n n e c t io n b e tw e e n s y s te m s v ia n e tw o r k s , w h ic h a llo w s fle x ib le u s e in a n y e n v ir o n m e n t w ith o u t m a k in g u s e r s a w a re o f c o n s titu e n t s y s te m s
N o m a d ic / lo c a l a r e a a cc e ss s y s te m s
D ig i ta l b ro a d c a s t sy s te m s
P ea k u se fu l d a ta ra te (M b i t/s )
D a sh e d lin e in d ic a te sth a t th e e x a c t d a tara te s a ss o c ia te d w iths y s te m s b e y o n d I M T -2 0 0 0a re n o t y e t d e te rm in e d
N e w c a p a b i lit ie so f sy s te m s b e y o n dIM T -2 0 0 0
S y ste m s b e y o n d IM T -2 0 0 0 w i ll e n c o m p a s sth e c a p a b i lit ie s o f p re v io u s s y s te m s
M o b ili ty
H ig h
L o w
N e wm o b ilea c c e ss
N e w n o m a d ic / lo c a la r e a w ir e le ss a c c e ss
E n h a n c e dI M T -2 0 0 0
I M T -2 0 0 0
D a rk s h a d in g in d ic a te s e x i s t in g c a p a b i lit ie s , m e d iu m sh a d in g in d ic a te s e n h a n c e m e n ts to IM T -2 0 0 0 , a n d th e lig h te r s h a d in g in d ic a te s n e w c a p a b il it ie s o f sy s te m s b e y o n d I M T -2 0 0 0 .
T h e d e g re e o f m o b ili ty a s u s e d in th i s F ig u r e is d e s c r ib e d a s fo l lo w s: lo w m o b il ity c o v e r s p e d e s t ria n s p e e d , a n d h ig h m o b ili ty c o v e rs h ig h s p e e d o n h ig h w a y s o r fa s t t ra in s (6 0 k m /h to ~ 2 5 0 k m /h , o r m o re ).
T e m p 8 /1 1 0 -0 21 5 9 0 3 3
ITUーR vandiagram(2002)
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 10
TRANSMISSION RATE (bps)
1M 10M 100M
4G
100k 1G
MOBILITY
High speed
stationary)
3.5G3G 802.16e
WiMAX
802.11n802.15.3 (UWB)
WiFi
802.20
DSRC
802.16-2004802.11b
802.11a/g
802.11p
2G、2.5G、3G、3,5G、4G: 802.○□:IEEE
VAN diagram
10k
2G(PDC )
2.5G
4GLTE
WiMax2
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 11
Packet-basedcore networkPacket-basedcore network
Service AService A Service BService B
Service aggregator
Service aggregator
DSRCDSRC
Digital Broadcast Digital
Broadcast B3G Cellular
B3G Cellular
4G Cellular
4G Cellular
Wired Broadband
Wired Broadband
WLANWLAN
Ad-hoc Short Range
Communication
Ad-hoc Short Range
Communication
IMS
Current IMS based services are not suited for vehicular communicationbecause separate systems do not have adequate coordination.
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 12
contents
Changes in IT environmentsCommunication Services for vehiclesMarket Growth through M2M communication
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 13
Advances in recent 10 years in ICT application for automobile
Traditionally ICT improved many aspects of vehicles including emission reduction and stability control.
In recent 10 years, contribution of ICT in vehicle technology expanded fast.
Vehicle Stability ControlRadar Cruise Control (ACC)Back MonitorTire Pressure MonitorOn Demand InformationShift Control based on Map
Autonomous→Networked Interests for Communication,
V2I and V2V
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 14
Communication based services for safe smooth convenient operation
1970’s Signal control1980’s Major improvements build in electronics for vehicle1990’s DSRC for Infrastructure-Vehicle communication
Traffic Data
Toll Collection
Congestion Charge
2000’s Transport TelematicsRemote Vehicle Support system
Map updatingMusic distributioneCall, e911
2005’s Vehicle Safety Systems Collision avoidance
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 15
ITS Vehicle services
Traffic managementprobing, dynamic fee management, emission management
Public transport managementtransit vehicle tracking, multimodal coordination
Traveler informationpersonal route guidance, provider based route guidance,dynamic rideshare
Vehicle safetyintersection safety warning, intersection collision avoidance, automated highway
Commercial vehicle operationfleet administration, freight administration, electronic clearance, weigh-in- motion
Emergency management stolen vehicle tracking, stolen vehicle control, emergency response, mayday support
ITS America, 1996
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 16
Two classes of vehicle communication
ITS( Intelligent Transport System)Vehicle services using short range communication
probing, fee collection, intersection safety warning
Tansport TelematicsVehicle services using cell phone service
emergency management stolen vehicle responsesremote vehicle supportpersonal route guidance
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 17
ITS
ITS Architecture (ITS America1996)
Fixed point to fixed point Communications
Roadway
Toll Collection
Parking Management
Commercial Vehicle Check
Vehicle
TransitVehicle
CommercialVehicle
Emergency Vehicle
Ded
icat
ed S
hort
Ran
ge
Com
mun
icat
ions
Veh
icle
to V
ehic
le C
omm
unic
atio
n s
Wide Area Wireless (Mobile)Communications
Remote Traveler Support
Personal Information Access
Travelers Centers
Vehicles
Field
Traffic Management
Archived Data Management
Maintenance & Construction Management
Commercial Vehicle
Administration
Toll Administration
Emergency Management
Fleet & Freight
Management
Transit Management
Emissions Management
Information Service Provider
Security Monitoring
Maintenance &Construction Vehicle
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 18
Travelers Centers
Wide Area Wireless Communications
Fixed Point to Point Communications
Vehicle Field
Vehi
cle
to V
ehic
le C
omm
unic
atio
ns
DSR
C
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 19
Communication services for Vehicles
When ITS study started in 1996, public wireless service was still premature.Dedicated short range communication system are proposed for ITS Communication.In latter half of 1990‘s, cell phone services became ubiquitous and quickly saturated in personal service market. Transport Telematics was expected to cultivate new market for Cell Phone Carriers.In 1990’s business model of cell phone for Machine to Machine communication was still premature and performance was also
inadequate for some of ITS applications.
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 20
Cell Phone for Vehicle Communication
Business model to charge for car telecom module as the second personal cell phone did not work in 90’s.In 2000’s transport telematics is a auto- manufacturer based MVNO service and efforts are paid to promote providing useful services for automobile users. Although performance of Cell Phone does not satisfy the requirement for ITS, appropriate design to satisfy requirement should be possible if new market is possible in future. In 2000’s performance of LTE and 4G cell phone is expected to have performance for many vehicle applications.
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 21
10k
100k
1M
10M
100M
1G
95 00 05 10
PDC 9.6k
IMT IMT advanced
WCDMA
384k
14M
HSPA LTE release 8
LTE 200M
4G
伝送速度
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 22
Round trip time and speed of B3G
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 23
Travelers Centers
Fixed Point to Point Communications
Fixed Point to Point Communications
Vehicle Field
Vehi
cle
to V
ehic
le C
omm
unic
atio
ns
Ubiquitous
Wireless Communications
Ubiquitous
Wireless Communications
Pede
stria
n
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 24
Cell Phone standards can be unified after the history
日(1979)MOVA
欧(1981)NMT
US(1982)AMPS
US(1989)Dyna
TAC
日(1993)PDC
欧(1993)GSM
US(1990)Digital AMPS
cdma
One(IS54)
(1995)
cdma2000(IS95)
WCDMA(2000)
LTE
→
4G
(2010)
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
analogue digital CDMA OFDM
TD-SCDMA(中国)
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 25
Prediction of LTE (Japan)
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
160000000
180000000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
契約
数
TD-SCDMAWiMAXWCDMAPDCOthersLTEHSPA/HSPA+GSMCDMA2000
LTE
HSPA
CDMA2000
WCDMA
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 26
Prediction of LTE (US)
0
50000000
100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
350000000
400000000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
契約
数
TD-SCDMAWiMAXWCDMAPDCOthersLTEHSPA/HSPA+GSMCDMA2000
LTE
HSPA
CDMA2000
GSM
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 27
contents
Changes in IT environmentsCommunication Services for vehiclesMarket Growth through M2M communication
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 28
Traditional technology developments
Communication system for human useBroadband communication wireless and wirelineMultimedia applications for human marketExtension of range without repeater.Mobility management of human speed.Security to keep networkCost reduction by expansion of marketRecent requests for low carbon systems
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 29
Broad Range of Requirements for Machine to Machine Communication
Latency for Setup0.1msec ~
10msec ~
1sec ~
100secDistance of Communication
0.01m ~
1m ~
100m ~
10km ~
1000kmData Speed
1b/s ~
100b/s ~
10kb/s ~
1Mb/s ~
100Mb/sCoverage
point, surrounding, linear, plane(operator, national ,global)Addressing
location, person, vehicle, machine, situationError rate
10-9, 10-7, 10-5, 10-3, 10-1
Technology life5 years, 10 years, 20years, 100years
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 30
100sec
1sec
10msec
0.1msec
1m 100m 10km 1000km
VehicleNetworks
Current NetworksInternetPOTS
latency
distance
An Example of Performance Requirement for Vehicle Service
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 31
Communication performance requirement for intersection safety warning
Latency for Setup 10msec Distance of Communication 1m ~
100m
Data Speed 100b/s ~
10kb/s
Coverage surroundingAddressing location
Error rate 10-5 ~
10-3
Life of technology roadside 50 yearsvehicle 20 years
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 32
Communication performance requirement for
intersection collision avoidance
Latency for Setup 10msecDistance of Communication 1m ~
100m
Data Speed 100b/s ~
10kb/s
Coverage surrounding, linearAddressing locationError rate 10-9 ~
10-5
Life of technology roadside 50 yearsvehicle 20 years
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 33
Communication performance requirement for
mayday support
Latency for Setup 1sec ~
100sec
Distance of Communication 10km ~
1000km
Data Speed 10kb/s ~
1Mb/s
Coverage plane (global :cross border)Addressing vehicle, machineError rate 10-5 ~
10-3
Life of technology roadside 50 yearsvehicle 20 years
Pune, India, 13 – 15 Dec 2010: ITU-T Kaleidoscope 2010 – Beyond the Internet? Innovations for future networks and services 34
Requirements for Cellular Network
Business model of Cellular network to support small data traffic is needed.Keeping track many terminals having low traffic is needed.Possible number of vehicles to be served by cellular network is also be a problem. Major issue for DSRC is difficulty in investment just for vehicle, especially in low traffic density area.Common use of infrastructure for ITS and telematics will be a solution.To keep the cost low for safety application is to be studied including new protocol common with another M2M services.Study of common requirements for M2M communication is a challenge for new telecommunication market.