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Page 1: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Vienna, October 2019

Research and Trend Analysis BranchUnited Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

Placeholder WDR 2019 Picture

Page 2: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Growth of drug markets

Page 3: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

179

127

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ind

ex: 1

99

8 =

10

0

Opium production index Population index Trend - opium production

Sources: UNODC, World Drug Report 2019 (and previous years) and World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Index: global illicit opium production and

global population, 1998=100

Page 4: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

240

126

-

50

100

150

200

250

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Ind

ex: 1

99

8 =

10

0

Global cocaine manufacture (old conversion ratio)

Global cocaine manufacture (new conversion ratio)

Population

Sources: UNODC, World Drug Report 2019 (and previous years) and World Bank, World Development Indicators

Index: global illicit cocaine manufacture and

global population, 1998=100

Page 5: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Trafficking and population growthLong-term trend in quantities of drugs seized

(based on kilogram equivalents), and population growth, 1998–2017

Source: UNODC, World Drug Report 2019 and World Bank, World Development Indicators.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Ind

ex (

19

98

= 1

00

)

Population Cannabis Cocaine Opiates Opioids ATS

Page 6: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Drug use and population at the global level – index: 1998 = 100

Page 7: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Complex and fast dynamics of drug markets

Page 8: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

The global emergence of New Psychoactive Substances

Nu

mb

er o

f u

niq

ue

NP

S re

po

rted

Page 9: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Breakdown of NPS by structure and mode of action

30%

23%19%

17%

5%3%2%1%

Syntheticcannabinoidsother substances

SyntheticcathinonesPhenethylamines

Tryptamines

Piperazines

Phencyclidine-type substancesAminoindanes

Page 10: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Heroin and Synthetic Drugs Seizures in Central Asia and the Russian Federation, 2014-2019

Page 11: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Links between daily smoking, risky drinking and recent illicit drug use among people aged 14 or older in Australia, 2016

Source: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2016 –detailed findings, Canberra 2017.

Page 12: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Number of drug-induced deaths reported in the European Union in 2012 and 2017 (or most recent year) by age band

Source: EMCDDA, European Drug Report 2019.

Page 13: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

-

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Seiz

ure

s o

f m

eth

amp

het

amin

e an

d it

s p

recu

rso

rs in

m

eth

amp

het

amin

e eq

uiv

aln

ets,

in k

ilogr

ams

Nu

mb

er o

f d

ism

antl

ed la

bo

rato

ries

Global ephedrine seizures Global seizures of ephedrine preparations

Global seizures of pseudoephedrine P-2-P seizures (North America)

Phenylactic acid (North America) APAAN seizures (North America)

Global number of dismantled methamphetamine labs Global methamphetamine seizures

Number of dismantled methamphetamine laboratories,

methamphetamine seizures and seizures of methamphetamine

precursors, 2010-2017

Sources: UNODC, annual report questionnaire and INCB, Precursors 2018, New York 2018 (and previous years).

Page 14: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Global opium production in metric tons, 1906/1907 – 2018

41,600

16,600

12,000

-71%

Note: The transformation of poppy straw into opium equivalents is tentative. A transformation ratio of around 7 kg of opium for 100 kg of poppy straw was

applied, derived from average morphine output from poppy straw of 0.7% at the global level and an average opium morphine content of close to 10% at the

global level (10 years average). Annual specific results were applied for data over the 2006-2016 period. Poppy straw figures for 2017 are still preliminary.

Sources: Report of the International Opium Commission, Shanghai, China, Feb. 1909, Vol. II, INCB, Narcotics Report, Narcotic Drugs: Estimated World

Requirements for 2018 – Statistics for 2016 and previous years, UNODC, A Century of International Drug Control (2009), UNODC, World Drug Report 2019 and

previous years.

Memo:

World population:

1906: 1.75 billion

2018: 7.63 billion

Page 15: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

3.3%

1.5%

0.24% 0.25%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

ASIA WORLD

pre

va

len

ce

in

% o

f to

tal p

op

ula

tio

n

1907/08 2006

Estimates of opiate use among the total population

1907/08 and 2006

Source: UNODC, 2008 World Drug Report, June 2008.

-83%-93%

Page 16: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

International Scheduling Decisions 2015 – 2019

Successful prioritization: the 48 substances scheduled between 2015-2019 correspond to only 5 percent of all NPS but account for 22 percent of all NPS country reports to the UNODC Early Warning Advisory on NPS. 9 substances including 4 fentanyl's were scheduled at the 2019 meeting of the Commission on Narcotic Drugs.

Page 17: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

7.1

6.7

0.9

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Germany (age18-64)

Austria (age15-64)

Germany (age18-64)

Austria (age15-64)

All drugs NPS

An

nu

al p

reva

len

ce o

f N

PS

use

in %

An

nu

al p

reva

len

ce o

f al

l dru

g u

se in

%

All drugs New Psychoactive Substances (NPS)

Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015

Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015)

Sources: German Ministry of Health / SUCHT, Zeitschrift für Wissenschaft und Praxis, Vol. 62, Oct. 2016; Gesundheit Österreich, Bevölkerungserhebung zu Substanzgebrauch 2015..

Austria:

* Implementation of “Arzneimittelgesetz”

(medicine law) as of 2008 to prohibit Spice

imports

* Implementation of NPS Law: December

2012

Germany:

* Implementation of NPS law: November

2016

Page 18: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Drug problem: the same type of problem but with different characteristics in different countries/regions

Page 19: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Primary drug for treatment 2011

2016

Page 20: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Source: UNODC, World Drug Report 2019

Non medical use of pharmaceuticals in contexts of too much or too little

Page 21: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

Synthetic opioids

Fentanyl and its

analogues (including some NPS)

Methamphetamine

Ecstasy

Non medical use

of pharmaceu

tical stimulants

Amphetamine

Ecstasy

Old NPS cementing in marginalized population

Non medical use of Tramadol

Captagon(amphetami

ne)

Methamphetamine

Non medical use

of Ketamine

Ecstasy

Page 22: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:
Page 23: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:
Page 24: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:
Page 25: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

To keep the genius inside the magic

lamp

Page 26: Research and Trend Analysis Branch United Nations Office ... · Prevalence of illicit drug use and NPS use in 2015 Prevalence of drug use in Germany (2016) and Austria (2015) Sources:

The challenge of keeping the public-health centric approach when there is a powerful business sector