Research ArticleRainfall Variability and Trend Analysis of Annual Rainfall inNorth Africa

Zeineddine Nouaceur1 and Ovidiu Mursrescu2

1UMR CNRS 6228 IDEES University of Rouen Rouen France2Department of Geography ldquoValahiardquo University Targoviste Romania

Correspondence should be addressed to Zeineddine Nouaceur zeineddinenouaceuruniv-rouenfr

Received 7 June 2016 Revised 8 September 2016 Accepted 26 September 2016

Academic Editor Prodromos Zanis

Copyright copy 2016 Z Nouaceur and O Murarescu This is an open access article distributed under the Creative CommonsAttribution License which permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work isproperly cited

The IPCC climate models predict for theMaghreb countries lower rainfall and increased aridity Current observations in the threecountries of central Maghreb (Morocco Algeria and Tunisia) are not consistent with these predictions To demonstrate this newtrend a detailed regional analysis of rainfall evolution is conducted This investigation is based on the calculation of the reducedcentered index and the chronological graphical method of processing information (MGCTI) of ldquoBertin matrixrdquo type The resultsshow extreme variability of this parameter and the severe past drought (more intense for Morocco in which the drastic conditionsfrom the seventies are observed)The results also show the beginning of a gradual return to wetter conditions since the early 2000sin Algeria and Tunisia and from 2008 for Morocco (this trend is confirmed by recent agricultural production data in 20112012 and20122013)

1 Introduction

Climate change is today acknowledged by a large part of thescientific community In its latest report the IPCC [1] in 2013evaluates the average trend of world temperature over theperiod 1880ndash2012 equal to 085∘C with a degree of uncer-tainty ranging between 065∘C and 106∘C The rise thatoccurred during the last decade (2003ndash2012) is +078∘C (fora minimum of 072∘C and a maximum of 085∘C) TheNational Climatic Data Center NCDC considers the year2014 as the warmest ever recorded with an anomaly of+069∘C (calculated for the period 1880ndash2014) [2]TheWorldMeteorological Organisation [3] considers the period 2011ndash2015 as the hottest on record and the year 2015 as the hottestsince modern observations began in the late 1800s If on aglobal scale the increase in temperatures is unquestionablethe evolution of world pluviometry is muchmore contrastingas it is subject to a strong spatiotemporal variability Despitethis feature and considering temperature rise an increasein rainfall is likely to occur in certain region of the worldfavorable to such climate evolution Indeed the hydrologicalcycle acceleration under the influence of strong temperatures

might lead to more rainfall and evaporation [4] The resultsof several studies on rainfall evolution in many areas of theglobe as it happens inNorthAfrica show that climate changetranslates into wetter conditions [5 6] as well as into a rainfallincrease and repetition of extreme events (perceptible in therecent decades 1991ndash2010) [4 7ndash9]

TheMediterranean area is known today as a ldquohot spotrdquo ofclimate change [10ndash12] This large inner sea stretching fromthe Strait of Gibraltar to the Lebanese coasts over an area ofalmost 4000 km has a total surface of 251 million km On thewhole this area is characterised by a well-defined summerdrought and depending on the subregions by a maximumprecipitation in autumn or winter [13] During summerrainfall is scarce In this season the Azores anticyclonemovesnorth When the anticyclone retreats south it leaves free thepassage to the ocean disturbances affecting North AfricaThe rainy season begins in the fall and continues to thespring The Mediterranean climate is subtropical (Csa andCsb according to Koppen classification) however cycloneactivity presents large seasonal and spatial variability withlarge differences from western to eastern Mediterranean andbetween cold and warm seasons [14] The importance of this

Hindawi Publishing CorporationInternational Journal of Atmospheric SciencesVolume 2016 Article ID 7230450 12 pageshttpdxdoiorg10115520167230450

2 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

water mass on a regional scale explains the vast expanse inspace of theMediterranean climate domain According to theresults of various prediction of climatic models both globaland regional a rise in temperatures and decrease in rainfallare expected [15ndash17] Thus by 2100 these regions shouldexperience an average rise in temperature of 3-4∘C a decreaseof rainfall and increase of extreme events [12] Philandraset al [18] based on the future projections of regional cli-matemodel RACMO2KNMI show that annual precipitationwithin themajority ofMediterranean is very likely to decreaseon an average of 20 during the period 2071ndash2100 comparedto 1961ndash1990 under scenario ldquoSRESrdquo ldquoA1Brdquo The works ofGiannakopoulos et al [19] lead to the same result with a 20rainfall decline south of theMediterranean Sea according to aclimatewarming scenario of +2∘CTselioudis et al [20] basedon the results of first scenario showed a marked decreasein winter precipitation value by the end of the 21st centuryDubrovsky et al [21] analyzed future climate conditionsfor the Mediterranean region based on 16 Global ClimateModels For temperature the results show an increase forall parts of the Mediterranean For precipitation a decreaseis noted except for the northernmost parts in winter Theintermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lowerthan for temperature [21] Giorgi and Lionello [11] estimatethat significant Mediterranean rainfall decline is expected inconnectionwith intensification of the anticyclonic circulationand a northward shift of the string of cyclonic depressionareas Alpert et al [22] confirm a tendency of intense rainfallincrease in Spain and Italy and also note an absence of trendin Israel and Cyprus The combined effect of climate changeand anthropic impact would entail a lack of water for almost290 million people At the same time Algeria and Tunisiawhich are part of the MENA region countries have reacheda state of absolute water scarcity

In central Maghreb (Morocco Algeria and Tunisia)the rise in temperature is pursuant to the global situationThus 2013 is one of the warmest years recorded in Tunisiasince 1950 [23] The rise of lowest temperatures (119879

119899) is

however more evident in this part of North Africa [24ndash26]Rainfall data of some terrestrial observations networks onthe south shore of the western Mediterranean basin confirmthis change for the last decade However the results showa contrary trend to climate models predictions [27 28]The first authors assign a tropical precipitation origin tothe return of rains observed at the Moroccan stations ofSafi and El-Jadida while within the whole of the centralregion ofMorocco drought conditions prevail In theMiddleMoroccan Atlas a situation may be noted which differs fromthat described for the central Moroccan region [29] FinallyKhomsi et al [30] find no statistical significancy in thecumulative and extreme rainfall trends (summer and winterevents) in 9 stations of this last country In Tunisia recentstudies [31] show that annual precipitation trend is on therise for 19 regions surveyed during 1977ndash2011 This analysishighlights a break of chronological sequences during themost characteristic periods of the great drought of the 1980s(1981ndash1992) and a return of rains in the early 2000s (2001ndash2009) This last trend is also confirmed by [32] for north-eastern Tunisia The absence of a significant trend is however

dealt with in other studies [33] over a long chronologicalsequence of TunisManouba stationThe same evolutionmayalso be encountered in the intra-Tellian plains and basins[34] Finally Jebari et al [35] have emphasized the tendencyof rainfall decline and higher efficiency of solid transport andflows over 50 yearsrsquo sequences (1960ndash2004)

This diversity of scientific opinions confirms the spa-tiotemporal variability of theMediterranean pluviometry andparticularly on the south shore of the basin [36 37] Thispeculiarity makes the identification of long-term significanttrends difficult [38] and shows the need to study the precip-itation trend according to a global regional approach whichminimises the topoclimate effect and is informed of thespatiotemporal distribution of precipitation cycles

2 Materials and Methods

This article aims to analyze the precipitation trend for morethan forty years of measurements on a wide northern stripin central Maghreb (Morocco Algeria and Tunisia) Thirty-five stations (14 in Morocco 12 in Algeria and 9 in Tunisia)which provide a common period of measurements werechosen for this study (1970ndash2013 for Algeria and Tunisia and1970ndash2011 forMorocco) (Figure 1)Themonthly precipitationdata were provided by the Meteorological Services ldquoTheNational Office of National Meteorology (ONM) for Algeriathe National Meteorological Institute (INM) for Tunisiaand the National Directorate of Meteorology (DNM) forMoroccordquo Quality and homogeneity of the data were testedby these services The missing data were supplemented withinformation gathered from the NCDC ldquoNational ClimaticData Centerrdquo website (httpwwwncdcnoaagov)

The method used for this study is the chronologicalgraphic method of information processing (MGCTI) ofldquoBertin matrixrdquo type The MGCTI is an analytical methodbased on a statistical analysis and on a graphical represen-tation of results This method was used for the first time in2013 [24] The MGCTI is developed to facilitate the interpre-tation of the statistical results for the Mediterranean rainfallanalysis due to the high variability affecting this parameter

The Bertin matrix was introduced to harmonize andconsolidate information after the statistical treatment TheBertin matrix is a manual and visual method of classificationof information based on data This matrix is used to groupthe data that have similarities according to all the criteriastudied It provides a simple and effective way to establisha multivariate typology based on observations of the userThis provides the concordant results (even rainfall characterfor all stations studied in the same year) but also identifiesconflicting information (different characters between stationsfor the same year)

The MGCTI and its graphic representation allow achronological reading and a spatial analysis of the phe-nomenon This method has been successfully tested in manyNorth African regions [28 29 32 39] and in the Sahel [40]A comparative study with the SPI (Standard PrecipitationIndex) method for detecting climate drought was conductedin 2015 [41] This study showed the simplicity and clarity of

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 3

Mediterranean Sea

AlgeriaTunisia

Morocco

Spain

AtlanticOcean

France

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

+++++

+ +

++

+ + +

+ +

+ + +

+

++

TazaAzzaba

Sefrou

Nador

Agadir

Casablanca

IfraneSafi

Marrakech

Ouarzazate

Gabes

Kairouan

Sfax

Tozeur

TunisCarthage

Bizerte

Gafsa

Tabarka

JendoubaOran

AnnabaSkikdaChlef

BiskraEl Bayed Djelfa

ConstantineBatna

Kenitra

0 625 125 250

(Miles)

N

Teacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Figure 1 Spatial distribution of precipitation stations used for this study

the results obtained with the MGCTI method In this paperwe test this method on a larger area consisting of differentclimatic regions of North Africa (more than 30 stations) Thepurpose of this article is to show the trend of rainfall overnearly half a century and to detect the date of changes ofcycles

The First Stage An annual data precipitation (cumulativerainfall over a calendar year) hierarchy in terms of limit values(Q1 Q2 Median Q3 and Q4) is done for all stations and forthe entire series (Table 1)

Depending on data position in relation to limit values theyears are considered as

(i) very dry below the first quintile

(ii) dry between the first and the second quintile

(iii) normal with trends towards drought between thesecond quantile and the third quintile

(iv) rainy between the third and the fourth quintile

(v) very rainy above the fourth quintile

The Second Stage A recoding of values is made by means of arange of colours (the colour varying in terms of the annualcumulative rainfall position in relation to limit values)This first processing is followed by a reordering procedure(permutations of columns) in order to get a ranking thatallows the visualisation of a homogenous coloured structure(Bertin matrix) (Figure 2) This procedure allows for the

visualisation of the climate parameter evolution in terms oftwo dimensions (time and space)

TheThird Stage To determine the typical breaks and periodsa second procedure is conducted It consists in assigning anumber ranging from 1 (very dry year) to 5 (very wet year)according to the already determined features assigned toeach year The sum of numbers of all stations for each yearis centered and reduced thus getting a regional index (RI)varying from +180 for a very wet year to minus180 for a very dryyear The ldquoRIrdquo is calculated as follows

RI =(119883119894minus 119883)

119878 (1)

where 119883119894is year value 119883 is the series average and 119878 is

standard deviationThe projection of the result on a graph allows for the

visualisation of the evolution of the phenomenon on aregional scale in a first stage and in a second stage for thedetermination of data on breaks and trend change

3 Results and Discussion

31 Towards the End of Climatic Droughts in CentralMaghreb

311 The Morocco Situation The results of statistical andgraphical processing of central Maghreb pluviometry showstrong variability (typical of the Mediterranean climaticdomain) and an organisation structured into three mainclimatic periods (Figure 2)

4 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Table1Pluviometry

ofcentralM

aghreb

Morocco

Agadir

Azzaba

Casablanca

Fes

Ifrane

Kenitra

Marrakech

Meknes

Nador

Ouarzazate

Safi

Sefro

uTaza

Tetouan

Min

8143

1470

010772

20000

51710

25246

9520

1815

015455

2508

1470

61917

3114

1030840

Q1

1276

024800

27398

3399

06393

03573

814200

38030

25091

7274

24118

4017

041850

45406

Q2

19000

30200

33114

44610

8692

05016

419861

47850

28545

9371

31849

48582

5097

058852

Me

21295

31300

3473

847520

93520

5377

02174

151530

3090

910444

32521

51110

55440

64020

Q3

24308

33300

39214

49610

96020

59344

23571

54020

3418

211229

35882

5594

061260

66695

Q4

33840

41500

50895

5913

0109990

69500

30640

6794

039273

15427

46639

67300

79000

8014

0Max

65405

6670

07619

085500

174210

9278

746376

11474

067280

2478

088319

99250

100580

121597

Algeria

Ann

aba

Batna

Bejaıa

Biskra

Con

stantine

Dar

ElBe

ıda

Djelfa

Chlef

ElBa

yed

Oran

Skikda

Tebessa

Min

4090

01592

032000

4700

25330

28000

15240

21350

10670

1717

04916

01990

0Q1

53110

23400

6310

06907

42600

47540

2490

029800

2191

02595

061590

28230

Q2

58440

2990

07490

09390

4919

060

600

30440

3377

026620

32200

66630

3498

0Me

61460

3470

078080

12598

51420

68352

32460

3610

027090

35070

7298

037035

Q3

66244

4073

083300

13361

57030

7175

034230

4191

030460

40420

76490

40680

Q4

77300

17680

9692

019030

8619

07978

039480

48510

38086

4391

087670

51070

Max

112600

36219

137341

29500

81229

116900

51270

57711

54657

6090

0114

820

64660

Tunisia

Bizerte

Gabes

Gafsa

Jend

ouba

Kairo

uan

Sfax

Tabarka

Tozeur

Tunis

Min

37390

8650

3900

24490

13330

9480

57450

2220

26030

Q1

4674

012110

10690

33420

2212

014290

79050

4640

35310

Q2

6116

01419

013450

41570

2793

018430

9379

07660

4198

0ME

6792

017350

1495

046

030

2997

020230

9717

08420

45600

Q3

72430

20590

1696

049030

32400

23240

102480

9190

4995

0Q4

78560

3113

021640

57260

3674

030670

116190

11420

59370

Max

98310

4717

050230

84010

51870

4494

038640

16820

101160

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 5

Morocco Tunisia Algeria

Year

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 3519701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

minus093020

123048

minus055minus018

142minus121minus112

039048

minus149161

minus187067

minus027104

minus093minus074

minus168067

minus008086

minus130minus121

minus065086

048minus055

048minus187

minus149minus074

114123

minus018minus046

076029

095104

123086

114

minus2 minus1 0 1 2

157099

minus016109

minus083minus026

032090

042022

minus035minus083

minus112minus121

minus083minus054

minus093minus026

061032

128minus035minus045

minus083minus141

051137

099minus112

minus083minus074minus074

032128

minus093013

minus093minus141

157195

224minus102

minus224 minus112 0 112 224

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

minus125026

091155

minus049047

155minus114

minus006047

minus006minus179

177minus136

069minus103

069minus093

minus136minus103

134minus017

091minus146

minus082015

101080

minus028026

minus168minus146

minus039187

037015

058minus017

minus125134

015080

minus039047

minus2 minus1 0 1 2

Rainfall trend at stationVery wet + Wet

minus Dry

Regional rainfall trend

WetNormalDryVery dry

Rainfall trend at stationVery wet + Wet

minus Dry

Regional rainfall trend

WetNormalDryVery dry

Number Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m)1 Taza minus402 3421 5212 Azzaba minus473 3383 6893 Sefrou minus449 3349 8014 Nador minus292 3513 2265 minus533 3558 106 Agadir minus955 3038 117 minus497 3393 5988 Casablanca minus767 3356 629 minus66 343 1710 minus553 3388 54911 Ifrane minus517 335 166012 Safi minus923 3228 4513 Marrakech minus803 3161 47414 Ouarzazet minus69 3093 118715 Gabes 1006 3353 416 Kairouan 1006 354 6017 Sfax 1041 3443 2118 Tozeur 806 3355 87

19 Tunis 1014 365 420 Bizerte 948 3715 521 Gafsa 849 3425 31322 Tabarka 854 3658 6623 Jendouba 848 3629 14324 Oran minus036 3538 9025 313 3641 2526 Annaba 749 365 827 Skikda 654 3653 1328 504 3643 17429 Chlef 12 3613 14330 Biskra 544 3448 8231 El Bayed 1 334 134132 Djelfa 323 342 118033 807 3525 8204734 Constantine 637 3613 68535 Batna 619 3545 822

Number Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m)

Teacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda

Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Keacutenitra

Figure 2 MGCTI classification of annual precipitation according to quintiles Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 and Q5 (measurement period from 1970 to2013)

A period qualified as wet is visible on the matrix during1970ndash1979 This decade contains 70 of the years withpositive regional index The highest values are noted at thebeginning of the period (+157 for 1970 and +109 for 1973)Almost 50 of annual rainfall accumulations are consideredas wet and very wet The percentage of average year reaches2571 while during dry years it represents 2714

In 1980 a new drier climatic phase began and lasted until2001 Only 30 of the years of this long period stretching overmore than two decades show a positive regional index The

proportion of dry and very dry years reaches 4901 that ofnormal years 1875 and that of rainy and very rainy years3223

The regional graph allows us to distinguish three drysubperiods (negative regional index) with two rainy periodsof three successive years in between

(i) From 1980 to 1987 an uninterrupted succession ofyears with negative regional indices can be noted It isa period of severe drought whichmarks a large part of

6 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

the Moroccan territory The values are relatively highfor 1982 (minus112) 1983 (minus121) and 1986 (minus093) Forall Moroccan stations studied the proportion of dryand very dry years reaches almost 56 while rainyand very rainy years account for a little more than aquarter with 24 This long period characterised bya lack of humidity is followed by three years (1988ndash1990) during which positive regional indices and ahumid trend are recorded

(ii) From 1991 to 1994 rainfall accumulations becomenegative again

(iii) The regional index reaches during this final year oneof the lowest values of the series minus141

(iv) From 1995 to 1997 a short wet period marks theMoroccan pluviometry with a spectacular increase ofpluviometry (the regional index reaches +137 in 1996one of the highest values of the first three decades ofthis series)

(v) The stage covering the 1998ndash2001 period is markedby the return of drastic conditions A little more than60 of rainfall accumulations recorded at variousstations are considered as dry or very dry

(vi) The last period (2002ndash2011) of the precipitation seriesis considered as wet (60 of the years recorded apositive index) At the same time the percentageof rainy and very rainy years at all stations reaches5238 The last years of the series provide evidenceof change of trend for this decade Indeed from 2008to 2010 the percentage of rainy and very rainy yearsgoes from 7857 to 8571 and 9285

312 The Algeria Situation The MGCTI graphical matrix(Figure 2) shows for Algeria an organisation of rainfall accu-mulations into three characteristic periods

A first stage of strong variability in 1970ndash1986No genuineclimatic trend stands out in this period All stations understudy are characterised by an almost even distribution ofextreme classes of annual rainfall rainy and very rainy (40)dry and very dry (3950) and normal (205)The regionalindex is negative for more than 47 of the years as opposedto 5294 for positive values What is remarkable aboutthis period is undoubtedly a powerful interannual oscillationbetween dry year and wet year A sequence of three rainyyears (1971ndash1973) can be noted at the beginning of the serieswhile for the rest of the period trend inversions (dry yearrainy year) are for two successive years at most

A second stage starts in 1987 and finishes in 2002 It ismarked by a drying trend because 5560 of the years areconsidered to be dry and very dry while rainy and very rainyyears totalize no more than 2658 At the same time theregional index is negative for almost 68 of this period ascompared to 3125 for positive values The persistence ofdrought conditions never exceeds three consecutive yearsExtremenegative values for this dry stage are recorded in 1989(minus168) 2000 (minus187) and 2001 (minus149)

The last period of this precipitation series (2003ndash2013)in which 82 of the years have a positive regional index is

described as rainy On the whole this last stage distinguishesitself through an uninterrupted sequence of 7 years (2007ndash2013) with positive regional indices The percentage of rainyand very rainy years recorded at all stations (5572) is in netincrease while dry and very dry years with 2061 are in netdecrease as compared to the previous period

313 The Tunisia Situation Precipitation data recorded in1970ndash2013 in Tunisia (Figure 2) are characterised by a sig-nificant variability previously emphasized during the studyof Morocco and Algeria series The MGTCI graphical matrixshows once more three major characteristic periods

(i) The first stage starts in 1970 and finishes in 1986 andis marked by a lack of trend The regional index ispositive for almost 53 of years and negative forthe remaining 47 The percentages calculated at allstations for wet and very wet classes show that almost42 of years belong to this precipitation categoryThe dry and very dry classes represent just over 39of years This first period just like that analyzed forAlgeria is characterised by an important variation ofextreme years (two years namely 1981 with a negativeindex of minus179 and 1982 with a positive index of+177 show this particularity) The beginning of theperiod tends less to this oscillation (a sequence ofthree rainy years is noticeable from 1971 to 1973)

(ii) The second period is marked by a dry trend whichlasts 16 years on this territory The regional indexshows that almost 63 of years record a negativevalue The years belonging to the dry and very dryclass totalize almost 55 for all stations Rainy andvery rainy years only account for 2290 Successivestageswith the same trends exceed nomore than threeyears (1987ndash1989 and 2000ndash2003 for negative indicesand 1995ndash1997 for positive indices) Four years standout through negative indices which exceed minus1 1988(minus136) 1989 (minus103) 1993 (minus146) 2000 (minus168) and2001 (minus146)

(iii) The last period (2003ndash2013) is considered wet Theregional index is positive for a period of 8 years Thereturn of drought conditions is noted in 2007 in 2008(index aboveminus05) and in 2012 (index equal to minus125)Rainy and very rainy years are evaluated for this phaseat almost 48 while dry and very dry years totalize3131 These numbers thus indicate an increase ofyears in the first class of +25 as compared to theprevious period and a regress of the arid and very aridclass of minus2364

32 A Net Increase of Rainy and Very Rainy Years for theDecade 2002ndash2011 Figure 3 was completed by starting fromthe decennial averages of the categories of rainy and veryrainy dry and very dry years and normal averages calculatedfor the 1982ndash2011 interval confirming the previous argumentsfor the return of rainfall conditions in central Maghreb

(i) The analysis of the decade 1982ndash1991 (map shownin Figure 3(a)) shows the predominance of drought

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 7

(b) 1992ndash2001

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

(c) 2002ndash2011

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)

(a) 1982ndash1991

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)0 420210105

(Miles)

Mediterranean Sea

AlgeriaTunisiaMorocco

Spain

AtlanticOcean

France

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

+++++

+ +

++

+ + +

+ +

+ + +

+

++

TazaAzzaba

Sefrou

Nador

Agadir

Casablanca

IfraneSafi

Marrakech

Ouarzazate

Gabes

Kairouan

Sfax

Tozeur

Bizerte

Gafsa

Tabarka

Jendouba Oran

AnnabaSkikdaChlef

BiskraEl Bayed Djelfa

ConstantineBatna

Kenitra

0 625 125 250

(Miles)

N

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Tunis CarthageTeacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Figure 3 The evolution of precipitation accumulations of extreme years (1982ndash2011)

conditions in nineteen stations which record morethan 50 dry and very dry years and only 7 whichcorrespond to wet and wetter conditions for a littleover a half of the duration of the period studied

(ii) The 1992ndash2001 period (map shown in Figure 3(b))shows a more drastic precipitation situation with 21stations that display rainfall accumulations from thedry to the very dry category of over 50 At the sametime one may note the low values of rainy and veryrainy years that reach 50 only at Skikda Biskra andTetouan and are below this level at the remainingstations

(iii) The analysis of the map shown in Figure 3(c) for the2002ndash2011 period of measurements clearly illustratesthe predominance of rainy and very rainy years at

most stations (25) Dry years reach 50 only at threestations (Marrakech Sefrou and Sfax) As for rainyyears they exceed 40 at all stations except Dar elBeıda Djelfa and Gafsa

The last map (Figure 4) displays the differences betweenthe last two decades (1992ndash2001 and 2002ndash2011) betweenprecipitation accumulations of rainy and very rainy yearsand dry and very dry years This graphical representationallows us to see the evolution of extreme rainfall for thetwo already discussed periods It reveals the importance ofpositive differences which indicate an increase of the formercategory in 83 of the stations A decrease is recorded onlyat three stations (Dar el Beıda Djelfa and Gafsa) whilefor Constantine Marrakech and Sfax stabilisation of valuesof 0 can be noted This map confirms a return of more

8 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Spain

Morocco Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Rainy and very rainy yearsDry and very dry years

Sahara

300 248

(Miles)

Figure 4 Differences between the last two decades (rainy and very rainy years and dry and very dry years)

favorable conditions throughout the entire territory as thedecrease of dry and very dry years is common at 29 of thestations (of which 14 show stabilisation of this category ofhumidity for the two decades)

(i) In Tunisia southern stations (Sfax and Tozeur) do notfollow this trend and are characterised by a rise inthe percentage of dry and very dry years of +20 and+10 respectively

(ii) In Algeria the Constantine Annaba and Skikda sta-tions located in the east of the country record a risingtrend of 10 for the first station and stabilisation ofvalues for the last two

In Morocco only one station (Marrakech) is not keepingupwith the return of rainy conditions as it records a rise in dryand very dry years of 10 On the Atlantic coast Casablancaand Safi are the other two stations in this vast country thatmanifest a stable trend of extreme years regarding this lastcategory

The processing of the trend of extreme years from 1970 to2013 (the percentage of stations which recorded a rainy andvery rainy year dry and very dry year or a normal one) forthe three countries confirms previous results

We can see in Figure 5(a) that since the 2000s thepercentage developed for dry and very dry years has beenclearly in constant decline in all three countries At the sametime rainy and very rainy years show a rising trend con-firmed starting with this last date (Figure 5(b)) Figure 5(c)concerning the class of normal years allows one to note thatthe percentage of stations after displaying a trend of decreasefrom 1995 to 2000 increases starting with this last date for

Algeria and Tunisia but decreases for Moroccan stationswhich confirms a steady return of thewet stage in this country(considering the previously developed arguments for theother two classes)

The analysis of precipitation evolution in centralMaghreb(Morocco Algeria and Tunisia) revealed a significant vari-ability typical of theMediterranean climate (which is strongerfor the last two countries) A first wet period marks the pre-cipitation series in Morocco (1970ndash1979) while in the othertwo countries from 1970 to 1986 no significant trend canbe noted This study also allowed us to highlight the durableand drastic nature of the climatic drought affecting Moroccoformore than two decades (1980ndash2001) Indeed precipitationdeficits in these countries are intense and may persist forlong periods of time (1980ndash1987 1991ndash1994 and 1998ndash2001)Climatic drought recorded in Algeria and Tunisia is shorter(1987ndash2002) and the cycles of years of deficits not only aresynchronised between the two countries but also are lessextended in time and they never exceed three consecutive dryyears (1987ndash1989 1993-1994 and 2000ndash2002)

Finally the rainfall return period is generalised in theMaghreb area under study Starting with 2002 in Moroccoand 2003 in Algeria and Tunisia values confirm a returntowards more rainy conditions despite the persistence ofextreme variability which is characterised by a brief returnof dry and very dry years (2006 and 2008)

This new period marks a break from past droughtyperiods despite the return once in a while of deficient years(eg in 2005 and 2006 forAlgeria andTunisia and 2006 2007and 2011 for Morocco)

Figure 6 developed starting from the mobile average ofall stations studied sums up the main 3 stages that have

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 9

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70(

)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(a)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(b)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(c)

Figure 5 Mobile frequency averages of stations that recorded dry and very dry years (a) rainy and very rainy years (b) and normal years (c)(1970ndash2011 for Morocco and 1970ndash2013 for Algeria and Tunisia)

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

MaghrebAlgeria

MoroccoTunisia

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

Figure 6 Reduced centered deviations of annual rainfall accumu-lations recorded in central Maghreb (mobile average calculated for35 weather stations in 1970ndash2011)

affected Maghreb pluviometry during the last 44 years Thefirst humid stage is noticeable from 1970 to 1979 followed bythe great climatic drought which lasts almost a half a centuryand finally the rainfall return which can be noted as of 2003

Thus south coast regions of westernMediterranean basinhave been subjected in the last years to strong climatedisturbances (these facts are not concordant with the resultsof climate patterns already cited for precipitations)The signsof change are extremely eloquent for the latest years in allthis region of North Africa as evidenced by the rainfallobserved between September 2008 and September 2009 InMorocco [42] The 2009-2010 rainfalls are also considered asexceptional and historic because they allowed for the fillingof dams at their maximum capacity (the filling rate of theAl Wahda Dam the largest of the kingdom located in theOuergha Wadi was 985) These rains ensured a recordcereal production of 80 million quintals (for 20092010)Thistrend was confirmed for 20122013 because with an averagepluviometry of 450mm the excess rainfall on a national scaleamounts to +20 as compared to a normal year [42] At thesame time this agricultural campaign ensured a new recordcereal production evaluated at 97 million quintals For 2014the filling of dams in operation reached nationwide a level of7238 while westward in areas that were affected by distur-bances an exceptional percentage of filling of 87was notedIn the Moroccan South observation data revealed a return

10 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

towards more humid conditions in the Tafilet oasis [43ndash46] and a reinstatement of several ldquoFoggarasrdquo (a traditionalhydraulic systemaffected by past climatic droughts) At timesthis rainfall return occurs in extreme episodes as was the caseof the recent floods (November 2014) which hit central andsouth-western Morocco (Agadir Guelmin and Marrakechareas) In the first area rains recorded very high intensities(250mm in 3 days from the 28th to the 30th of November2014) which represents almost 90 of the observed averageannual accumulation (280mm)

As regards Algeria the situation seems similar becausethe 20082009 agricultural campaign was described as highlysatisfactory and the cereal production recorded the followingyear (20092010) is a record of 612 million quintals thathas never been equalled The hydrological situation is assatisfactory as in Morocco judging by the Ministry ofAgriculture publications an unprecedented dam filling upwhich amounted to nearly 72 in 2010 and 81 in April2013 for the 65 dams in operation and to 804 in March2014 levels that had never been reached hitherto The effectsof climate changes are also manifested in this country byextreme events (a succession of hot episodes in 2015 with athreshold temperature of 50∘C exceeded at Ourgla on August2nd 2015 and of snowfall in the Assekrem mountains inHoggar massif located in southern Algeria a very rare factnever observed since 1945)

In Tunisia the situation is less obvious because three-quarters of the country have an arid and semiarid climateThis new trend is still noticeable through a rise in intenseprecipitation events and anet increase of the number of floods(Sfax city very well illustrates this the city was flooded twicein 1969 and 1982 and despite important improvement workscarried out in 1984 and the past years it was flooded again in2009 and 2013) [47]

4 Conclusions

To conclude we may say that the climate change observedduring the last years is characterised by a rainfall return butwith a far greater intensity In Algeria the severe disturbances(which lead to a pluviometry of over 30mm24 h) are onthe rise in the last years (data ONM) This again is notconcordant with the IPCC conclusions which point out adecrease of disturbances over the Mediterranean space Atthe same time the temperature trend continues to be rising(despite a slight cooling of values recorded during the lastyears)

The variability of short-term global climate is generallyassociated with coupling phases of oceanic and atmosphericphenomena including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) While El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability in theworld the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the climatemodel dominant in the North Atlantic region The lattercyclic oscillationwhose role is still under debate could explainthe variability of rainfall in much of the Mediterranean areaand support the hypothesis of a return of the rains markingthe end of years of drought in central Maghreb

Further analysis of the response of rainfall to the NorthAtlantic Oscillation shows that drought seems more in linewith the positive indicators of high intensity demonstratinggreater strengthening of the pressure in Azores and weaken-ing of the Icelandic Low pressure Under these conditionsthe depressions are pushed towards northern latitudes whichpromotes the establishment of a dry and mild weather onthe periphery of the Mediterranean basin and North Africanregions

When the signal fades or becomes negative the pressureassociated with the Azores high is lower compared to thenormal value and at the same time the Icelandic Lowis barely formed According to this mode of traffic thedepressions corridorwithdraws further south and thus affectsthe Mediterranean regions of the south shore which will bewetter

This return of rainfall over central Maghreb should itbe confirmed could mean the end of several decades ofrecurrent droughts and announce a durable return to ldquothenormalrdquo This assumption is supported by emphasizingthe impact of different world climate oscillations (NorthAtlantic Oscillation El Nino Southern Oscillation) for allthe continents and particularly for the African continent[27 48] Do these facts announce a new climate phasewhich marks a break from past drastic conditions Suchquestion is difficult to answer today but climate data andinformation concerning the hydraulics and agriculture ofMaghreb confirm a completely unique situation in this vastarea of North Africa

Faced with such great changes that today affect theMaghreb region and given the complexity of spatial andtemporal dimensions of the climatic signal a more thoroughresearch of causes and retroactions would allow for a betterunderstanding of the mechanisms behind this new trendThese investigations should integrate and quantify the roleof terrigenous aerosols in the dynamics of local climateand show the importance of sea surface temperatures inregulating rainfall

Additional Points

Check the following websites

WMO World Meteorological Organisation httpwwwwmointpagesindex enhtmlONM Office National de la Meteorologie (Algeria)httpwwwmeteodzDirection de la Meteorologie Nationale (Morocco)httpwwwmarocmeteomaIMN Institut de la Meteorologie Nationale (Tunisia)httpwwwmeteotndefaulthtmlNCDC National Climatic Data Center httpwwwncdcnoaagov

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 11

References

[1] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GIECChangements climatiques en 2013 Les elements scientifiquesresume a lrsquointention des decideurs service drsquoappui techniquedu groupe de travail I GTI 2013 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar5wg1WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINALFRENCHpdf

[2] NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis for Annual 2014 2015 httpwwwncdcnoaagovsotcglobal201413

[3] WMO (Wolrd Meteorological Organization) ldquoHotter drierwetter Face the futurerdquo Bulletin vol 65 no 1 p 64 2016

[4] Wolrd Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statement on theStatus of Global Climate in 2012 2013

[5] M H I Dore ldquoClimate change and changes in global precipi-tation patterns what do we knowrdquo Environment Internationalvol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[6] L V Alexander X Zhang T C Peterson et al ldquoGlobal observedchanges in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipita-tionrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 111 no5 Article ID D05109 pp 1ndash22 2006

[7] M New M Todd M Hulme and P Jones ldquoPrecipitation mea-surements and trends in the twentieth centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 21 no 15 pp 1899ndash1922 2001

[8] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 2007 The PhysicalSciences Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds chapter11 pp 847ndash940 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK2007 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg1ar4-wg1-chapter11pdf

[9] S Planton M Deque H Douville and B Spagnoli ldquoImpact durechauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologiquerdquo ComptesRendus Geoscience vol 337 no 1 pp 193ndash202 2005

[10] F Giorgi ldquoClimate change hot-spotsrdquoGeophysical Research Let-ters vol 33 no 8 2006

[11] F Giorgi and P Lionello ldquoClimate change projections for theMediterranean regionrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 63no 2-3 pp 90ndash104 2008

[12] Blue Plan Environment and development in MediterraneanClimate change in the Mediterranean no 9 pp 4 2008

[13] E Xoplakie Climate variability over the mediterranean [PhDthesis] University of Bern Bern Switzerland 2002

[14] P Lionello J Bhend A Buzzi et al ldquoCyclones in the Mediter-ranean region climatology and effects on the environmentrdquoinMediterranean Climate Variability P Lionello P Malanotte-Rizzoli and R Abd Boscolo Eds pp 324ndash372 ElsevierAmsterdam The Netherlands 2006

[15] F Jin A Kitoh and P Alpert ldquoWater cycle changes over theMediterranean a comparison study of a super-high-resolutionglobal model with CMIP3rdquo Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sci-ences vol 368 no 1931 pp 5137ndash5149 2010

[16] C C Raible B Ziv H Saaroni andMWild ldquoWinter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under futureclimate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5rdquo ClimateDynamics vol 35 no 2-3 pp 473ndash488 2010

[17] S O Krichak J S Breitgand R Samuels and P Alpert ldquoAdouble-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation

experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the EasternMediterranean regionrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatologyvol 103 no 1 pp 167ndash195 2011

[18] C M Philandras P T Nastos J Kapsomenakis K C DouvisG Tselioudis andC S Zerefos ldquoLong termprecipitation trendsand variability within the Mediterranean regionrdquo Natural Haz-ards and Earth System Sciences vol 11 no 12 pp 3235ndash32502011

[19] M Giannakopoulos M Bindi M Moriondo and T TinldquoClimate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a2∘C global temperature riserdquo A Report for WWF httpwwwfaoorgfileadminuser uploadrome2007docsClimate ChangeAdaptation Water Sector NENApdf

[20] G Tselioudis C Zerefos P Zanis P Repapis and I Kape-spmenakis ldquoFuture trends in Mediterranean precipitation andpossible connections with the phase pf the North AtlanticOscillationrdquo in Proceedings of the 9th Conference of MeteorologyClimatology andAtmospheric Physics pp 513ndash520ThessalonikiGreece May 2008

[21] M Dubrovsky M Hayes P Duce M Trnka M Svoboda andP Zara ldquoMulti-GCM projections of future drought and climatevariability indicators for the Mediterranean regionrdquo RegionalEnvironmental Change vol 14 no 5 pp 1907ndash1919 2014

[22] P Alpert T Ben-Gai A Baharad et al ldquoThe paradoxicalincrease of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofdecrease in total valuesrdquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 29no 11 pp 1ndash31 2002

[23] WMO (WolrdMeteorological Organization) ldquoStatement on thestatus of global climate in 2012rdquo Tech Rep 1108 2013

[24] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangements clima-tiques au Maghreb vers des conditions plus humides et pluschaudes sur le littoral algerien rdquo Physio-Geo vol 7 pp 307ndash3232013

[25] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumidesrdquo in dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et Ses Marges Actesdu XXVII Colloque International de Climatologie pp 399ndash405Dijon France 2014

[26] M G Donat T C Peterson M Brunet et al ldquoChanges inextreme temperature and precipitation in theArab region long-term trends and variability related to ENSO andNAOrdquo Interna-tional Journal of Climatology vol 34 no 3 pp 581ndash592 2014

[27] A Sebbar W Badri H Fougrach M Hsain and A SalouildquoEtude de la variabilite du regime pluviometrique au Marocseptentrional (1935ndash2004)rdquo Secheresse vol 22 no 3 pp 139ndash148 2011

[28] Z Nouaceur ldquoEvaluation des changements climatiques auMaghreb Etude du cas des regions du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du 23rd Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie lsquoRisques et Changements Clima-tiquesrsquo pp 463ndash468 Rennes France 2010

[29] M Amyay Z Nouaceur A Tribak Kh Okba and A TaousldquoCaracterisation des evenements pluviometriques extremesdans le Moyen Atlas marocain et ses margesrdquo in Actes duXXV eme Colloque International de Climatologie pp 75ndash80Grenoble France 2012

[30] K Khomsi G Mahe Y Tramblay M Sinan and M SnoussildquoTrends in rainfall and temperature extremes in MoroccordquoNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions vol 3no 2 pp 1175ndash1201 2015

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

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EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

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Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

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Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

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GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

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Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

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MineralogyInternational Journal of

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The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

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Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

2 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

water mass on a regional scale explains the vast expanse inspace of theMediterranean climate domain According to theresults of various prediction of climatic models both globaland regional a rise in temperatures and decrease in rainfallare expected [15ndash17] Thus by 2100 these regions shouldexperience an average rise in temperature of 3-4∘C a decreaseof rainfall and increase of extreme events [12] Philandraset al [18] based on the future projections of regional cli-matemodel RACMO2KNMI show that annual precipitationwithin themajority ofMediterranean is very likely to decreaseon an average of 20 during the period 2071ndash2100 comparedto 1961ndash1990 under scenario ldquoSRESrdquo ldquoA1Brdquo The works ofGiannakopoulos et al [19] lead to the same result with a 20rainfall decline south of theMediterranean Sea according to aclimatewarming scenario of +2∘CTselioudis et al [20] basedon the results of first scenario showed a marked decreasein winter precipitation value by the end of the 21st centuryDubrovsky et al [21] analyzed future climate conditionsfor the Mediterranean region based on 16 Global ClimateModels For temperature the results show an increase forall parts of the Mediterranean For precipitation a decreaseis noted except for the northernmost parts in winter Theintermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lowerthan for temperature [21] Giorgi and Lionello [11] estimatethat significant Mediterranean rainfall decline is expected inconnectionwith intensification of the anticyclonic circulationand a northward shift of the string of cyclonic depressionareas Alpert et al [22] confirm a tendency of intense rainfallincrease in Spain and Italy and also note an absence of trendin Israel and Cyprus The combined effect of climate changeand anthropic impact would entail a lack of water for almost290 million people At the same time Algeria and Tunisiawhich are part of the MENA region countries have reacheda state of absolute water scarcity

In central Maghreb (Morocco Algeria and Tunisia)the rise in temperature is pursuant to the global situationThus 2013 is one of the warmest years recorded in Tunisiasince 1950 [23] The rise of lowest temperatures (119879

119899) is

however more evident in this part of North Africa [24ndash26]Rainfall data of some terrestrial observations networks onthe south shore of the western Mediterranean basin confirmthis change for the last decade However the results showa contrary trend to climate models predictions [27 28]The first authors assign a tropical precipitation origin tothe return of rains observed at the Moroccan stations ofSafi and El-Jadida while within the whole of the centralregion ofMorocco drought conditions prevail In theMiddleMoroccan Atlas a situation may be noted which differs fromthat described for the central Moroccan region [29] FinallyKhomsi et al [30] find no statistical significancy in thecumulative and extreme rainfall trends (summer and winterevents) in 9 stations of this last country In Tunisia recentstudies [31] show that annual precipitation trend is on therise for 19 regions surveyed during 1977ndash2011 This analysishighlights a break of chronological sequences during themost characteristic periods of the great drought of the 1980s(1981ndash1992) and a return of rains in the early 2000s (2001ndash2009) This last trend is also confirmed by [32] for north-eastern Tunisia The absence of a significant trend is however

dealt with in other studies [33] over a long chronologicalsequence of TunisManouba stationThe same evolutionmayalso be encountered in the intra-Tellian plains and basins[34] Finally Jebari et al [35] have emphasized the tendencyof rainfall decline and higher efficiency of solid transport andflows over 50 yearsrsquo sequences (1960ndash2004)

This diversity of scientific opinions confirms the spa-tiotemporal variability of theMediterranean pluviometry andparticularly on the south shore of the basin [36 37] Thispeculiarity makes the identification of long-term significanttrends difficult [38] and shows the need to study the precip-itation trend according to a global regional approach whichminimises the topoclimate effect and is informed of thespatiotemporal distribution of precipitation cycles

2 Materials and Methods

This article aims to analyze the precipitation trend for morethan forty years of measurements on a wide northern stripin central Maghreb (Morocco Algeria and Tunisia) Thirty-five stations (14 in Morocco 12 in Algeria and 9 in Tunisia)which provide a common period of measurements werechosen for this study (1970ndash2013 for Algeria and Tunisia and1970ndash2011 forMorocco) (Figure 1)Themonthly precipitationdata were provided by the Meteorological Services ldquoTheNational Office of National Meteorology (ONM) for Algeriathe National Meteorological Institute (INM) for Tunisiaand the National Directorate of Meteorology (DNM) forMoroccordquo Quality and homogeneity of the data were testedby these services The missing data were supplemented withinformation gathered from the NCDC ldquoNational ClimaticData Centerrdquo website (httpwwwncdcnoaagov)

The method used for this study is the chronologicalgraphic method of information processing (MGCTI) ofldquoBertin matrixrdquo type The MGCTI is an analytical methodbased on a statistical analysis and on a graphical represen-tation of results This method was used for the first time in2013 [24] The MGCTI is developed to facilitate the interpre-tation of the statistical results for the Mediterranean rainfallanalysis due to the high variability affecting this parameter

The Bertin matrix was introduced to harmonize andconsolidate information after the statistical treatment TheBertin matrix is a manual and visual method of classificationof information based on data This matrix is used to groupthe data that have similarities according to all the criteriastudied It provides a simple and effective way to establisha multivariate typology based on observations of the userThis provides the concordant results (even rainfall characterfor all stations studied in the same year) but also identifiesconflicting information (different characters between stationsfor the same year)

The MGCTI and its graphic representation allow achronological reading and a spatial analysis of the phe-nomenon This method has been successfully tested in manyNorth African regions [28 29 32 39] and in the Sahel [40]A comparative study with the SPI (Standard PrecipitationIndex) method for detecting climate drought was conductedin 2015 [41] This study showed the simplicity and clarity of

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 3

Mediterranean Sea

AlgeriaTunisia

Morocco

Spain

AtlanticOcean

France

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

+++++

+ +

++

+ + +

+ +

+ + +

+

++

TazaAzzaba

Sefrou

Nador

Agadir

Casablanca

IfraneSafi

Marrakech

Ouarzazate

Gabes

Kairouan

Sfax

Tozeur

TunisCarthage

Bizerte

Gafsa

Tabarka

JendoubaOran

AnnabaSkikdaChlef

BiskraEl Bayed Djelfa

ConstantineBatna

Kenitra

0 625 125 250

(Miles)

N

Teacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Figure 1 Spatial distribution of precipitation stations used for this study

the results obtained with the MGCTI method In this paperwe test this method on a larger area consisting of differentclimatic regions of North Africa (more than 30 stations) Thepurpose of this article is to show the trend of rainfall overnearly half a century and to detect the date of changes ofcycles

The First Stage An annual data precipitation (cumulativerainfall over a calendar year) hierarchy in terms of limit values(Q1 Q2 Median Q3 and Q4) is done for all stations and forthe entire series (Table 1)

Depending on data position in relation to limit values theyears are considered as

(i) very dry below the first quintile

(ii) dry between the first and the second quintile

(iii) normal with trends towards drought between thesecond quantile and the third quintile

(iv) rainy between the third and the fourth quintile

(v) very rainy above the fourth quintile

The Second Stage A recoding of values is made by means of arange of colours (the colour varying in terms of the annualcumulative rainfall position in relation to limit values)This first processing is followed by a reordering procedure(permutations of columns) in order to get a ranking thatallows the visualisation of a homogenous coloured structure(Bertin matrix) (Figure 2) This procedure allows for the

visualisation of the climate parameter evolution in terms oftwo dimensions (time and space)

TheThird Stage To determine the typical breaks and periodsa second procedure is conducted It consists in assigning anumber ranging from 1 (very dry year) to 5 (very wet year)according to the already determined features assigned toeach year The sum of numbers of all stations for each yearis centered and reduced thus getting a regional index (RI)varying from +180 for a very wet year to minus180 for a very dryyear The ldquoRIrdquo is calculated as follows

RI =(119883119894minus 119883)

119878 (1)

where 119883119894is year value 119883 is the series average and 119878 is

standard deviationThe projection of the result on a graph allows for the

visualisation of the evolution of the phenomenon on aregional scale in a first stage and in a second stage for thedetermination of data on breaks and trend change

3 Results and Discussion

31 Towards the End of Climatic Droughts in CentralMaghreb

311 The Morocco Situation The results of statistical andgraphical processing of central Maghreb pluviometry showstrong variability (typical of the Mediterranean climaticdomain) and an organisation structured into three mainclimatic periods (Figure 2)

4 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Table1Pluviometry

ofcentralM

aghreb

Morocco

Agadir

Azzaba

Casablanca

Fes

Ifrane

Kenitra

Marrakech

Meknes

Nador

Ouarzazate

Safi

Sefro

uTaza

Tetouan

Min

8143

1470

010772

20000

51710

25246

9520

1815

015455

2508

1470

61917

3114

1030840

Q1

1276

024800

27398

3399

06393

03573

814200

38030

25091

7274

24118

4017

041850

45406

Q2

19000

30200

33114

44610

8692

05016

419861

47850

28545

9371

31849

48582

5097

058852

Me

21295

31300

3473

847520

93520

5377

02174

151530

3090

910444

32521

51110

55440

64020

Q3

24308

33300

39214

49610

96020

59344

23571

54020

3418

211229

35882

5594

061260

66695

Q4

33840

41500

50895

5913

0109990

69500

30640

6794

039273

15427

46639

67300

79000

8014

0Max

65405

6670

07619

085500

174210

9278

746376

11474

067280

2478

088319

99250

100580

121597

Algeria

Ann

aba

Batna

Bejaıa

Biskra

Con

stantine

Dar

ElBe

ıda

Djelfa

Chlef

ElBa

yed

Oran

Skikda

Tebessa

Min

4090

01592

032000

4700

25330

28000

15240

21350

10670

1717

04916

01990

0Q1

53110

23400

6310

06907

42600

47540

2490

029800

2191

02595

061590

28230

Q2

58440

2990

07490

09390

4919

060

600

30440

3377

026620

32200

66630

3498

0Me

61460

3470

078080

12598

51420

68352

32460

3610

027090

35070

7298

037035

Q3

66244

4073

083300

13361

57030

7175

034230

4191

030460

40420

76490

40680

Q4

77300

17680

9692

019030

8619

07978

039480

48510

38086

4391

087670

51070

Max

112600

36219

137341

29500

81229

116900

51270

57711

54657

6090

0114

820

64660

Tunisia

Bizerte

Gabes

Gafsa

Jend

ouba

Kairo

uan

Sfax

Tabarka

Tozeur

Tunis

Min

37390

8650

3900

24490

13330

9480

57450

2220

26030

Q1

4674

012110

10690

33420

2212

014290

79050

4640

35310

Q2

6116

01419

013450

41570

2793

018430

9379

07660

4198

0ME

6792

017350

1495

046

030

2997

020230

9717

08420

45600

Q3

72430

20590

1696

049030

32400

23240

102480

9190

4995

0Q4

78560

3113

021640

57260

3674

030670

116190

11420

59370

Max

98310

4717

050230

84010

51870

4494

038640

16820

101160

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 5

Morocco Tunisia Algeria

Year

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 3519701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

minus093020

123048

minus055minus018

142minus121minus112

039048

minus149161

minus187067

minus027104

minus093minus074

minus168067

minus008086

minus130minus121

minus065086

048minus055

048minus187

minus149minus074

114123

minus018minus046

076029

095104

123086

114

minus2 minus1 0 1 2

157099

minus016109

minus083minus026

032090

042022

minus035minus083

minus112minus121

minus083minus054

minus093minus026

061032

128minus035minus045

minus083minus141

051137

099minus112

minus083minus074minus074

032128

minus093013

minus093minus141

157195

224minus102

minus224 minus112 0 112 224

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

minus125026

091155

minus049047

155minus114

minus006047

minus006minus179

177minus136

069minus103

069minus093

minus136minus103

134minus017

091minus146

minus082015

101080

minus028026

minus168minus146

minus039187

037015

058minus017

minus125134

015080

minus039047

minus2 minus1 0 1 2

Rainfall trend at stationVery wet + Wet

minus Dry

Regional rainfall trend

WetNormalDryVery dry

Rainfall trend at stationVery wet + Wet

minus Dry

Regional rainfall trend

WetNormalDryVery dry

Number Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m)1 Taza minus402 3421 5212 Azzaba minus473 3383 6893 Sefrou minus449 3349 8014 Nador minus292 3513 2265 minus533 3558 106 Agadir minus955 3038 117 minus497 3393 5988 Casablanca minus767 3356 629 minus66 343 1710 minus553 3388 54911 Ifrane minus517 335 166012 Safi minus923 3228 4513 Marrakech minus803 3161 47414 Ouarzazet minus69 3093 118715 Gabes 1006 3353 416 Kairouan 1006 354 6017 Sfax 1041 3443 2118 Tozeur 806 3355 87

19 Tunis 1014 365 420 Bizerte 948 3715 521 Gafsa 849 3425 31322 Tabarka 854 3658 6623 Jendouba 848 3629 14324 Oran minus036 3538 9025 313 3641 2526 Annaba 749 365 827 Skikda 654 3653 1328 504 3643 17429 Chlef 12 3613 14330 Biskra 544 3448 8231 El Bayed 1 334 134132 Djelfa 323 342 118033 807 3525 8204734 Constantine 637 3613 68535 Batna 619 3545 822

Number Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m)

Teacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda

Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Keacutenitra

Figure 2 MGCTI classification of annual precipitation according to quintiles Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 and Q5 (measurement period from 1970 to2013)

A period qualified as wet is visible on the matrix during1970ndash1979 This decade contains 70 of the years withpositive regional index The highest values are noted at thebeginning of the period (+157 for 1970 and +109 for 1973)Almost 50 of annual rainfall accumulations are consideredas wet and very wet The percentage of average year reaches2571 while during dry years it represents 2714

In 1980 a new drier climatic phase began and lasted until2001 Only 30 of the years of this long period stretching overmore than two decades show a positive regional index The

proportion of dry and very dry years reaches 4901 that ofnormal years 1875 and that of rainy and very rainy years3223

The regional graph allows us to distinguish three drysubperiods (negative regional index) with two rainy periodsof three successive years in between

(i) From 1980 to 1987 an uninterrupted succession ofyears with negative regional indices can be noted It isa period of severe drought whichmarks a large part of

6 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

the Moroccan territory The values are relatively highfor 1982 (minus112) 1983 (minus121) and 1986 (minus093) Forall Moroccan stations studied the proportion of dryand very dry years reaches almost 56 while rainyand very rainy years account for a little more than aquarter with 24 This long period characterised bya lack of humidity is followed by three years (1988ndash1990) during which positive regional indices and ahumid trend are recorded

(ii) From 1991 to 1994 rainfall accumulations becomenegative again

(iii) The regional index reaches during this final year oneof the lowest values of the series minus141

(iv) From 1995 to 1997 a short wet period marks theMoroccan pluviometry with a spectacular increase ofpluviometry (the regional index reaches +137 in 1996one of the highest values of the first three decades ofthis series)

(v) The stage covering the 1998ndash2001 period is markedby the return of drastic conditions A little more than60 of rainfall accumulations recorded at variousstations are considered as dry or very dry

(vi) The last period (2002ndash2011) of the precipitation seriesis considered as wet (60 of the years recorded apositive index) At the same time the percentageof rainy and very rainy years at all stations reaches5238 The last years of the series provide evidenceof change of trend for this decade Indeed from 2008to 2010 the percentage of rainy and very rainy yearsgoes from 7857 to 8571 and 9285

312 The Algeria Situation The MGCTI graphical matrix(Figure 2) shows for Algeria an organisation of rainfall accu-mulations into three characteristic periods

A first stage of strong variability in 1970ndash1986No genuineclimatic trend stands out in this period All stations understudy are characterised by an almost even distribution ofextreme classes of annual rainfall rainy and very rainy (40)dry and very dry (3950) and normal (205)The regionalindex is negative for more than 47 of the years as opposedto 5294 for positive values What is remarkable aboutthis period is undoubtedly a powerful interannual oscillationbetween dry year and wet year A sequence of three rainyyears (1971ndash1973) can be noted at the beginning of the serieswhile for the rest of the period trend inversions (dry yearrainy year) are for two successive years at most

A second stage starts in 1987 and finishes in 2002 It ismarked by a drying trend because 5560 of the years areconsidered to be dry and very dry while rainy and very rainyyears totalize no more than 2658 At the same time theregional index is negative for almost 68 of this period ascompared to 3125 for positive values The persistence ofdrought conditions never exceeds three consecutive yearsExtremenegative values for this dry stage are recorded in 1989(minus168) 2000 (minus187) and 2001 (minus149)

The last period of this precipitation series (2003ndash2013)in which 82 of the years have a positive regional index is

described as rainy On the whole this last stage distinguishesitself through an uninterrupted sequence of 7 years (2007ndash2013) with positive regional indices The percentage of rainyand very rainy years recorded at all stations (5572) is in netincrease while dry and very dry years with 2061 are in netdecrease as compared to the previous period

313 The Tunisia Situation Precipitation data recorded in1970ndash2013 in Tunisia (Figure 2) are characterised by a sig-nificant variability previously emphasized during the studyof Morocco and Algeria series The MGTCI graphical matrixshows once more three major characteristic periods

(i) The first stage starts in 1970 and finishes in 1986 andis marked by a lack of trend The regional index ispositive for almost 53 of years and negative forthe remaining 47 The percentages calculated at allstations for wet and very wet classes show that almost42 of years belong to this precipitation categoryThe dry and very dry classes represent just over 39of years This first period just like that analyzed forAlgeria is characterised by an important variation ofextreme years (two years namely 1981 with a negativeindex of minus179 and 1982 with a positive index of+177 show this particularity) The beginning of theperiod tends less to this oscillation (a sequence ofthree rainy years is noticeable from 1971 to 1973)

(ii) The second period is marked by a dry trend whichlasts 16 years on this territory The regional indexshows that almost 63 of years record a negativevalue The years belonging to the dry and very dryclass totalize almost 55 for all stations Rainy andvery rainy years only account for 2290 Successivestageswith the same trends exceed nomore than threeyears (1987ndash1989 and 2000ndash2003 for negative indicesand 1995ndash1997 for positive indices) Four years standout through negative indices which exceed minus1 1988(minus136) 1989 (minus103) 1993 (minus146) 2000 (minus168) and2001 (minus146)

(iii) The last period (2003ndash2013) is considered wet Theregional index is positive for a period of 8 years Thereturn of drought conditions is noted in 2007 in 2008(index aboveminus05) and in 2012 (index equal to minus125)Rainy and very rainy years are evaluated for this phaseat almost 48 while dry and very dry years totalize3131 These numbers thus indicate an increase ofyears in the first class of +25 as compared to theprevious period and a regress of the arid and very aridclass of minus2364

32 A Net Increase of Rainy and Very Rainy Years for theDecade 2002ndash2011 Figure 3 was completed by starting fromthe decennial averages of the categories of rainy and veryrainy dry and very dry years and normal averages calculatedfor the 1982ndash2011 interval confirming the previous argumentsfor the return of rainfall conditions in central Maghreb

(i) The analysis of the decade 1982ndash1991 (map shownin Figure 3(a)) shows the predominance of drought

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 7

(b) 1992ndash2001

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

(c) 2002ndash2011

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)

(a) 1982ndash1991

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)0 420210105

(Miles)

Mediterranean Sea

AlgeriaTunisiaMorocco

Spain

AtlanticOcean

France

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

+++++

+ +

++

+ + +

+ +

+ + +

+

++

TazaAzzaba

Sefrou

Nador

Agadir

Casablanca

IfraneSafi

Marrakech

Ouarzazate

Gabes

Kairouan

Sfax

Tozeur

Bizerte

Gafsa

Tabarka

Jendouba Oran

AnnabaSkikdaChlef

BiskraEl Bayed Djelfa

ConstantineBatna

Kenitra

0 625 125 250

(Miles)

N

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Tunis CarthageTeacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Figure 3 The evolution of precipitation accumulations of extreme years (1982ndash2011)

conditions in nineteen stations which record morethan 50 dry and very dry years and only 7 whichcorrespond to wet and wetter conditions for a littleover a half of the duration of the period studied

(ii) The 1992ndash2001 period (map shown in Figure 3(b))shows a more drastic precipitation situation with 21stations that display rainfall accumulations from thedry to the very dry category of over 50 At the sametime one may note the low values of rainy and veryrainy years that reach 50 only at Skikda Biskra andTetouan and are below this level at the remainingstations

(iii) The analysis of the map shown in Figure 3(c) for the2002ndash2011 period of measurements clearly illustratesthe predominance of rainy and very rainy years at

most stations (25) Dry years reach 50 only at threestations (Marrakech Sefrou and Sfax) As for rainyyears they exceed 40 at all stations except Dar elBeıda Djelfa and Gafsa

The last map (Figure 4) displays the differences betweenthe last two decades (1992ndash2001 and 2002ndash2011) betweenprecipitation accumulations of rainy and very rainy yearsand dry and very dry years This graphical representationallows us to see the evolution of extreme rainfall for thetwo already discussed periods It reveals the importance ofpositive differences which indicate an increase of the formercategory in 83 of the stations A decrease is recorded onlyat three stations (Dar el Beıda Djelfa and Gafsa) whilefor Constantine Marrakech and Sfax stabilisation of valuesof 0 can be noted This map confirms a return of more

8 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Spain

Morocco Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Rainy and very rainy yearsDry and very dry years

Sahara

300 248

(Miles)

Figure 4 Differences between the last two decades (rainy and very rainy years and dry and very dry years)

favorable conditions throughout the entire territory as thedecrease of dry and very dry years is common at 29 of thestations (of which 14 show stabilisation of this category ofhumidity for the two decades)

(i) In Tunisia southern stations (Sfax and Tozeur) do notfollow this trend and are characterised by a rise inthe percentage of dry and very dry years of +20 and+10 respectively

(ii) In Algeria the Constantine Annaba and Skikda sta-tions located in the east of the country record a risingtrend of 10 for the first station and stabilisation ofvalues for the last two

In Morocco only one station (Marrakech) is not keepingupwith the return of rainy conditions as it records a rise in dryand very dry years of 10 On the Atlantic coast Casablancaand Safi are the other two stations in this vast country thatmanifest a stable trend of extreme years regarding this lastcategory

The processing of the trend of extreme years from 1970 to2013 (the percentage of stations which recorded a rainy andvery rainy year dry and very dry year or a normal one) forthe three countries confirms previous results

We can see in Figure 5(a) that since the 2000s thepercentage developed for dry and very dry years has beenclearly in constant decline in all three countries At the sametime rainy and very rainy years show a rising trend con-firmed starting with this last date (Figure 5(b)) Figure 5(c)concerning the class of normal years allows one to note thatthe percentage of stations after displaying a trend of decreasefrom 1995 to 2000 increases starting with this last date for

Algeria and Tunisia but decreases for Moroccan stationswhich confirms a steady return of thewet stage in this country(considering the previously developed arguments for theother two classes)

The analysis of precipitation evolution in centralMaghreb(Morocco Algeria and Tunisia) revealed a significant vari-ability typical of theMediterranean climate (which is strongerfor the last two countries) A first wet period marks the pre-cipitation series in Morocco (1970ndash1979) while in the othertwo countries from 1970 to 1986 no significant trend canbe noted This study also allowed us to highlight the durableand drastic nature of the climatic drought affecting Moroccoformore than two decades (1980ndash2001) Indeed precipitationdeficits in these countries are intense and may persist forlong periods of time (1980ndash1987 1991ndash1994 and 1998ndash2001)Climatic drought recorded in Algeria and Tunisia is shorter(1987ndash2002) and the cycles of years of deficits not only aresynchronised between the two countries but also are lessextended in time and they never exceed three consecutive dryyears (1987ndash1989 1993-1994 and 2000ndash2002)

Finally the rainfall return period is generalised in theMaghreb area under study Starting with 2002 in Moroccoand 2003 in Algeria and Tunisia values confirm a returntowards more rainy conditions despite the persistence ofextreme variability which is characterised by a brief returnof dry and very dry years (2006 and 2008)

This new period marks a break from past droughtyperiods despite the return once in a while of deficient years(eg in 2005 and 2006 forAlgeria andTunisia and 2006 2007and 2011 for Morocco)

Figure 6 developed starting from the mobile average ofall stations studied sums up the main 3 stages that have

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 9

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70(

)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(a)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(b)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(c)

Figure 5 Mobile frequency averages of stations that recorded dry and very dry years (a) rainy and very rainy years (b) and normal years (c)(1970ndash2011 for Morocco and 1970ndash2013 for Algeria and Tunisia)

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

MaghrebAlgeria

MoroccoTunisia

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

Figure 6 Reduced centered deviations of annual rainfall accumu-lations recorded in central Maghreb (mobile average calculated for35 weather stations in 1970ndash2011)

affected Maghreb pluviometry during the last 44 years Thefirst humid stage is noticeable from 1970 to 1979 followed bythe great climatic drought which lasts almost a half a centuryand finally the rainfall return which can be noted as of 2003

Thus south coast regions of westernMediterranean basinhave been subjected in the last years to strong climatedisturbances (these facts are not concordant with the resultsof climate patterns already cited for precipitations)The signsof change are extremely eloquent for the latest years in allthis region of North Africa as evidenced by the rainfallobserved between September 2008 and September 2009 InMorocco [42] The 2009-2010 rainfalls are also considered asexceptional and historic because they allowed for the fillingof dams at their maximum capacity (the filling rate of theAl Wahda Dam the largest of the kingdom located in theOuergha Wadi was 985) These rains ensured a recordcereal production of 80 million quintals (for 20092010)Thistrend was confirmed for 20122013 because with an averagepluviometry of 450mm the excess rainfall on a national scaleamounts to +20 as compared to a normal year [42] At thesame time this agricultural campaign ensured a new recordcereal production evaluated at 97 million quintals For 2014the filling of dams in operation reached nationwide a level of7238 while westward in areas that were affected by distur-bances an exceptional percentage of filling of 87was notedIn the Moroccan South observation data revealed a return

10 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

towards more humid conditions in the Tafilet oasis [43ndash46] and a reinstatement of several ldquoFoggarasrdquo (a traditionalhydraulic systemaffected by past climatic droughts) At timesthis rainfall return occurs in extreme episodes as was the caseof the recent floods (November 2014) which hit central andsouth-western Morocco (Agadir Guelmin and Marrakechareas) In the first area rains recorded very high intensities(250mm in 3 days from the 28th to the 30th of November2014) which represents almost 90 of the observed averageannual accumulation (280mm)

As regards Algeria the situation seems similar becausethe 20082009 agricultural campaign was described as highlysatisfactory and the cereal production recorded the followingyear (20092010) is a record of 612 million quintals thathas never been equalled The hydrological situation is assatisfactory as in Morocco judging by the Ministry ofAgriculture publications an unprecedented dam filling upwhich amounted to nearly 72 in 2010 and 81 in April2013 for the 65 dams in operation and to 804 in March2014 levels that had never been reached hitherto The effectsof climate changes are also manifested in this country byextreme events (a succession of hot episodes in 2015 with athreshold temperature of 50∘C exceeded at Ourgla on August2nd 2015 and of snowfall in the Assekrem mountains inHoggar massif located in southern Algeria a very rare factnever observed since 1945)

In Tunisia the situation is less obvious because three-quarters of the country have an arid and semiarid climateThis new trend is still noticeable through a rise in intenseprecipitation events and anet increase of the number of floods(Sfax city very well illustrates this the city was flooded twicein 1969 and 1982 and despite important improvement workscarried out in 1984 and the past years it was flooded again in2009 and 2013) [47]

4 Conclusions

To conclude we may say that the climate change observedduring the last years is characterised by a rainfall return butwith a far greater intensity In Algeria the severe disturbances(which lead to a pluviometry of over 30mm24 h) are onthe rise in the last years (data ONM) This again is notconcordant with the IPCC conclusions which point out adecrease of disturbances over the Mediterranean space Atthe same time the temperature trend continues to be rising(despite a slight cooling of values recorded during the lastyears)

The variability of short-term global climate is generallyassociated with coupling phases of oceanic and atmosphericphenomena including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) While El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability in theworld the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the climatemodel dominant in the North Atlantic region The lattercyclic oscillationwhose role is still under debate could explainthe variability of rainfall in much of the Mediterranean areaand support the hypothesis of a return of the rains markingthe end of years of drought in central Maghreb

Further analysis of the response of rainfall to the NorthAtlantic Oscillation shows that drought seems more in linewith the positive indicators of high intensity demonstratinggreater strengthening of the pressure in Azores and weaken-ing of the Icelandic Low pressure Under these conditionsthe depressions are pushed towards northern latitudes whichpromotes the establishment of a dry and mild weather onthe periphery of the Mediterranean basin and North Africanregions

When the signal fades or becomes negative the pressureassociated with the Azores high is lower compared to thenormal value and at the same time the Icelandic Lowis barely formed According to this mode of traffic thedepressions corridorwithdraws further south and thus affectsthe Mediterranean regions of the south shore which will bewetter

This return of rainfall over central Maghreb should itbe confirmed could mean the end of several decades ofrecurrent droughts and announce a durable return to ldquothenormalrdquo This assumption is supported by emphasizingthe impact of different world climate oscillations (NorthAtlantic Oscillation El Nino Southern Oscillation) for allthe continents and particularly for the African continent[27 48] Do these facts announce a new climate phasewhich marks a break from past drastic conditions Suchquestion is difficult to answer today but climate data andinformation concerning the hydraulics and agriculture ofMaghreb confirm a completely unique situation in this vastarea of North Africa

Faced with such great changes that today affect theMaghreb region and given the complexity of spatial andtemporal dimensions of the climatic signal a more thoroughresearch of causes and retroactions would allow for a betterunderstanding of the mechanisms behind this new trendThese investigations should integrate and quantify the roleof terrigenous aerosols in the dynamics of local climateand show the importance of sea surface temperatures inregulating rainfall

Additional Points

Check the following websites

WMO World Meteorological Organisation httpwwwwmointpagesindex enhtmlONM Office National de la Meteorologie (Algeria)httpwwwmeteodzDirection de la Meteorologie Nationale (Morocco)httpwwwmarocmeteomaIMN Institut de la Meteorologie Nationale (Tunisia)httpwwwmeteotndefaulthtmlNCDC National Climatic Data Center httpwwwncdcnoaagov

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 11

References

[1] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GIECChangements climatiques en 2013 Les elements scientifiquesresume a lrsquointention des decideurs service drsquoappui techniquedu groupe de travail I GTI 2013 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar5wg1WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINALFRENCHpdf

[2] NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis for Annual 2014 2015 httpwwwncdcnoaagovsotcglobal201413

[3] WMO (Wolrd Meteorological Organization) ldquoHotter drierwetter Face the futurerdquo Bulletin vol 65 no 1 p 64 2016

[4] Wolrd Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statement on theStatus of Global Climate in 2012 2013

[5] M H I Dore ldquoClimate change and changes in global precipi-tation patterns what do we knowrdquo Environment Internationalvol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[6] L V Alexander X Zhang T C Peterson et al ldquoGlobal observedchanges in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipita-tionrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 111 no5 Article ID D05109 pp 1ndash22 2006

[7] M New M Todd M Hulme and P Jones ldquoPrecipitation mea-surements and trends in the twentieth centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 21 no 15 pp 1899ndash1922 2001

[8] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 2007 The PhysicalSciences Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds chapter11 pp 847ndash940 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK2007 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg1ar4-wg1-chapter11pdf

[9] S Planton M Deque H Douville and B Spagnoli ldquoImpact durechauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologiquerdquo ComptesRendus Geoscience vol 337 no 1 pp 193ndash202 2005

[10] F Giorgi ldquoClimate change hot-spotsrdquoGeophysical Research Let-ters vol 33 no 8 2006

[11] F Giorgi and P Lionello ldquoClimate change projections for theMediterranean regionrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 63no 2-3 pp 90ndash104 2008

[12] Blue Plan Environment and development in MediterraneanClimate change in the Mediterranean no 9 pp 4 2008

[13] E Xoplakie Climate variability over the mediterranean [PhDthesis] University of Bern Bern Switzerland 2002

[14] P Lionello J Bhend A Buzzi et al ldquoCyclones in the Mediter-ranean region climatology and effects on the environmentrdquoinMediterranean Climate Variability P Lionello P Malanotte-Rizzoli and R Abd Boscolo Eds pp 324ndash372 ElsevierAmsterdam The Netherlands 2006

[15] F Jin A Kitoh and P Alpert ldquoWater cycle changes over theMediterranean a comparison study of a super-high-resolutionglobal model with CMIP3rdquo Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sci-ences vol 368 no 1931 pp 5137ndash5149 2010

[16] C C Raible B Ziv H Saaroni andMWild ldquoWinter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under futureclimate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5rdquo ClimateDynamics vol 35 no 2-3 pp 473ndash488 2010

[17] S O Krichak J S Breitgand R Samuels and P Alpert ldquoAdouble-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation

experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the EasternMediterranean regionrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatologyvol 103 no 1 pp 167ndash195 2011

[18] C M Philandras P T Nastos J Kapsomenakis K C DouvisG Tselioudis andC S Zerefos ldquoLong termprecipitation trendsand variability within the Mediterranean regionrdquo Natural Haz-ards and Earth System Sciences vol 11 no 12 pp 3235ndash32502011

[19] M Giannakopoulos M Bindi M Moriondo and T TinldquoClimate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a2∘C global temperature riserdquo A Report for WWF httpwwwfaoorgfileadminuser uploadrome2007docsClimate ChangeAdaptation Water Sector NENApdf

[20] G Tselioudis C Zerefos P Zanis P Repapis and I Kape-spmenakis ldquoFuture trends in Mediterranean precipitation andpossible connections with the phase pf the North AtlanticOscillationrdquo in Proceedings of the 9th Conference of MeteorologyClimatology andAtmospheric Physics pp 513ndash520ThessalonikiGreece May 2008

[21] M Dubrovsky M Hayes P Duce M Trnka M Svoboda andP Zara ldquoMulti-GCM projections of future drought and climatevariability indicators for the Mediterranean regionrdquo RegionalEnvironmental Change vol 14 no 5 pp 1907ndash1919 2014

[22] P Alpert T Ben-Gai A Baharad et al ldquoThe paradoxicalincrease of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofdecrease in total valuesrdquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 29no 11 pp 1ndash31 2002

[23] WMO (WolrdMeteorological Organization) ldquoStatement on thestatus of global climate in 2012rdquo Tech Rep 1108 2013

[24] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangements clima-tiques au Maghreb vers des conditions plus humides et pluschaudes sur le littoral algerien rdquo Physio-Geo vol 7 pp 307ndash3232013

[25] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumidesrdquo in dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et Ses Marges Actesdu XXVII Colloque International de Climatologie pp 399ndash405Dijon France 2014

[26] M G Donat T C Peterson M Brunet et al ldquoChanges inextreme temperature and precipitation in theArab region long-term trends and variability related to ENSO andNAOrdquo Interna-tional Journal of Climatology vol 34 no 3 pp 581ndash592 2014

[27] A Sebbar W Badri H Fougrach M Hsain and A SalouildquoEtude de la variabilite du regime pluviometrique au Marocseptentrional (1935ndash2004)rdquo Secheresse vol 22 no 3 pp 139ndash148 2011

[28] Z Nouaceur ldquoEvaluation des changements climatiques auMaghreb Etude du cas des regions du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du 23rd Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie lsquoRisques et Changements Clima-tiquesrsquo pp 463ndash468 Rennes France 2010

[29] M Amyay Z Nouaceur A Tribak Kh Okba and A TaousldquoCaracterisation des evenements pluviometriques extremesdans le Moyen Atlas marocain et ses margesrdquo in Actes duXXV eme Colloque International de Climatologie pp 75ndash80Grenoble France 2012

[30] K Khomsi G Mahe Y Tramblay M Sinan and M SnoussildquoTrends in rainfall and temperature extremes in MoroccordquoNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions vol 3no 2 pp 1175ndash1201 2015

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

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Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

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Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

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International Journal of

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OceanographyInternational Journal of

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Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 3

Mediterranean Sea

AlgeriaTunisia

Morocco

Spain

AtlanticOcean

France

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

+++++

+ +

++

+ + +

+ +

+ + +

+

++

TazaAzzaba

Sefrou

Nador

Agadir

Casablanca

IfraneSafi

Marrakech

Ouarzazate

Gabes

Kairouan

Sfax

Tozeur

TunisCarthage

Bizerte

Gafsa

Tabarka

JendoubaOran

AnnabaSkikdaChlef

BiskraEl Bayed Djelfa

ConstantineBatna

Kenitra

0 625 125 250

(Miles)

N

Teacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Figure 1 Spatial distribution of precipitation stations used for this study

the results obtained with the MGCTI method In this paperwe test this method on a larger area consisting of differentclimatic regions of North Africa (more than 30 stations) Thepurpose of this article is to show the trend of rainfall overnearly half a century and to detect the date of changes ofcycles

The First Stage An annual data precipitation (cumulativerainfall over a calendar year) hierarchy in terms of limit values(Q1 Q2 Median Q3 and Q4) is done for all stations and forthe entire series (Table 1)

Depending on data position in relation to limit values theyears are considered as

(i) very dry below the first quintile

(ii) dry between the first and the second quintile

(iii) normal with trends towards drought between thesecond quantile and the third quintile

(iv) rainy between the third and the fourth quintile

(v) very rainy above the fourth quintile

The Second Stage A recoding of values is made by means of arange of colours (the colour varying in terms of the annualcumulative rainfall position in relation to limit values)This first processing is followed by a reordering procedure(permutations of columns) in order to get a ranking thatallows the visualisation of a homogenous coloured structure(Bertin matrix) (Figure 2) This procedure allows for the

visualisation of the climate parameter evolution in terms oftwo dimensions (time and space)

TheThird Stage To determine the typical breaks and periodsa second procedure is conducted It consists in assigning anumber ranging from 1 (very dry year) to 5 (very wet year)according to the already determined features assigned toeach year The sum of numbers of all stations for each yearis centered and reduced thus getting a regional index (RI)varying from +180 for a very wet year to minus180 for a very dryyear The ldquoRIrdquo is calculated as follows

RI =(119883119894minus 119883)

119878 (1)

where 119883119894is year value 119883 is the series average and 119878 is

standard deviationThe projection of the result on a graph allows for the

visualisation of the evolution of the phenomenon on aregional scale in a first stage and in a second stage for thedetermination of data on breaks and trend change

3 Results and Discussion

31 Towards the End of Climatic Droughts in CentralMaghreb

311 The Morocco Situation The results of statistical andgraphical processing of central Maghreb pluviometry showstrong variability (typical of the Mediterranean climaticdomain) and an organisation structured into three mainclimatic periods (Figure 2)

4 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Table1Pluviometry

ofcentralM

aghreb

Morocco

Agadir

Azzaba

Casablanca

Fes

Ifrane

Kenitra

Marrakech

Meknes

Nador

Ouarzazate

Safi

Sefro

uTaza

Tetouan

Min

8143

1470

010772

20000

51710

25246

9520

1815

015455

2508

1470

61917

3114

1030840

Q1

1276

024800

27398

3399

06393

03573

814200

38030

25091

7274

24118

4017

041850

45406

Q2

19000

30200

33114

44610

8692

05016

419861

47850

28545

9371

31849

48582

5097

058852

Me

21295

31300

3473

847520

93520

5377

02174

151530

3090

910444

32521

51110

55440

64020

Q3

24308

33300

39214

49610

96020

59344

23571

54020

3418

211229

35882

5594

061260

66695

Q4

33840

41500

50895

5913

0109990

69500

30640

6794

039273

15427

46639

67300

79000

8014

0Max

65405

6670

07619

085500

174210

9278

746376

11474

067280

2478

088319

99250

100580

121597

Algeria

Ann

aba

Batna

Bejaıa

Biskra

Con

stantine

Dar

ElBe

ıda

Djelfa

Chlef

ElBa

yed

Oran

Skikda

Tebessa

Min

4090

01592

032000

4700

25330

28000

15240

21350

10670

1717

04916

01990

0Q1

53110

23400

6310

06907

42600

47540

2490

029800

2191

02595

061590

28230

Q2

58440

2990

07490

09390

4919

060

600

30440

3377

026620

32200

66630

3498

0Me

61460

3470

078080

12598

51420

68352

32460

3610

027090

35070

7298

037035

Q3

66244

4073

083300

13361

57030

7175

034230

4191

030460

40420

76490

40680

Q4

77300

17680

9692

019030

8619

07978

039480

48510

38086

4391

087670

51070

Max

112600

36219

137341

29500

81229

116900

51270

57711

54657

6090

0114

820

64660

Tunisia

Bizerte

Gabes

Gafsa

Jend

ouba

Kairo

uan

Sfax

Tabarka

Tozeur

Tunis

Min

37390

8650

3900

24490

13330

9480

57450

2220

26030

Q1

4674

012110

10690

33420

2212

014290

79050

4640

35310

Q2

6116

01419

013450

41570

2793

018430

9379

07660

4198

0ME

6792

017350

1495

046

030

2997

020230

9717

08420

45600

Q3

72430

20590

1696

049030

32400

23240

102480

9190

4995

0Q4

78560

3113

021640

57260

3674

030670

116190

11420

59370

Max

98310

4717

050230

84010

51870

4494

038640

16820

101160

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 5

Morocco Tunisia Algeria

Year

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 3519701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

minus093020

123048

minus055minus018

142minus121minus112

039048

minus149161

minus187067

minus027104

minus093minus074

minus168067

minus008086

minus130minus121

minus065086

048minus055

048minus187

minus149minus074

114123

minus018minus046

076029

095104

123086

114

minus2 minus1 0 1 2

157099

minus016109

minus083minus026

032090

042022

minus035minus083

minus112minus121

minus083minus054

minus093minus026

061032

128minus035minus045

minus083minus141

051137

099minus112

minus083minus074minus074

032128

minus093013

minus093minus141

157195

224minus102

minus224 minus112 0 112 224

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

minus125026

091155

minus049047

155minus114

minus006047

minus006minus179

177minus136

069minus103

069minus093

minus136minus103

134minus017

091minus146

minus082015

101080

minus028026

minus168minus146

minus039187

037015

058minus017

minus125134

015080

minus039047

minus2 minus1 0 1 2

Rainfall trend at stationVery wet + Wet

minus Dry

Regional rainfall trend

WetNormalDryVery dry

Rainfall trend at stationVery wet + Wet

minus Dry

Regional rainfall trend

WetNormalDryVery dry

Number Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m)1 Taza minus402 3421 5212 Azzaba minus473 3383 6893 Sefrou minus449 3349 8014 Nador minus292 3513 2265 minus533 3558 106 Agadir minus955 3038 117 minus497 3393 5988 Casablanca minus767 3356 629 minus66 343 1710 minus553 3388 54911 Ifrane minus517 335 166012 Safi minus923 3228 4513 Marrakech minus803 3161 47414 Ouarzazet minus69 3093 118715 Gabes 1006 3353 416 Kairouan 1006 354 6017 Sfax 1041 3443 2118 Tozeur 806 3355 87

19 Tunis 1014 365 420 Bizerte 948 3715 521 Gafsa 849 3425 31322 Tabarka 854 3658 6623 Jendouba 848 3629 14324 Oran minus036 3538 9025 313 3641 2526 Annaba 749 365 827 Skikda 654 3653 1328 504 3643 17429 Chlef 12 3613 14330 Biskra 544 3448 8231 El Bayed 1 334 134132 Djelfa 323 342 118033 807 3525 8204734 Constantine 637 3613 68535 Batna 619 3545 822

Number Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m)

Teacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda

Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Keacutenitra

Figure 2 MGCTI classification of annual precipitation according to quintiles Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 and Q5 (measurement period from 1970 to2013)

A period qualified as wet is visible on the matrix during1970ndash1979 This decade contains 70 of the years withpositive regional index The highest values are noted at thebeginning of the period (+157 for 1970 and +109 for 1973)Almost 50 of annual rainfall accumulations are consideredas wet and very wet The percentage of average year reaches2571 while during dry years it represents 2714

In 1980 a new drier climatic phase began and lasted until2001 Only 30 of the years of this long period stretching overmore than two decades show a positive regional index The

proportion of dry and very dry years reaches 4901 that ofnormal years 1875 and that of rainy and very rainy years3223

The regional graph allows us to distinguish three drysubperiods (negative regional index) with two rainy periodsof three successive years in between

(i) From 1980 to 1987 an uninterrupted succession ofyears with negative regional indices can be noted It isa period of severe drought whichmarks a large part of

6 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

the Moroccan territory The values are relatively highfor 1982 (minus112) 1983 (minus121) and 1986 (minus093) Forall Moroccan stations studied the proportion of dryand very dry years reaches almost 56 while rainyand very rainy years account for a little more than aquarter with 24 This long period characterised bya lack of humidity is followed by three years (1988ndash1990) during which positive regional indices and ahumid trend are recorded

(ii) From 1991 to 1994 rainfall accumulations becomenegative again

(iii) The regional index reaches during this final year oneof the lowest values of the series minus141

(iv) From 1995 to 1997 a short wet period marks theMoroccan pluviometry with a spectacular increase ofpluviometry (the regional index reaches +137 in 1996one of the highest values of the first three decades ofthis series)

(v) The stage covering the 1998ndash2001 period is markedby the return of drastic conditions A little more than60 of rainfall accumulations recorded at variousstations are considered as dry or very dry

(vi) The last period (2002ndash2011) of the precipitation seriesis considered as wet (60 of the years recorded apositive index) At the same time the percentageof rainy and very rainy years at all stations reaches5238 The last years of the series provide evidenceof change of trend for this decade Indeed from 2008to 2010 the percentage of rainy and very rainy yearsgoes from 7857 to 8571 and 9285

312 The Algeria Situation The MGCTI graphical matrix(Figure 2) shows for Algeria an organisation of rainfall accu-mulations into three characteristic periods

A first stage of strong variability in 1970ndash1986No genuineclimatic trend stands out in this period All stations understudy are characterised by an almost even distribution ofextreme classes of annual rainfall rainy and very rainy (40)dry and very dry (3950) and normal (205)The regionalindex is negative for more than 47 of the years as opposedto 5294 for positive values What is remarkable aboutthis period is undoubtedly a powerful interannual oscillationbetween dry year and wet year A sequence of three rainyyears (1971ndash1973) can be noted at the beginning of the serieswhile for the rest of the period trend inversions (dry yearrainy year) are for two successive years at most

A second stage starts in 1987 and finishes in 2002 It ismarked by a drying trend because 5560 of the years areconsidered to be dry and very dry while rainy and very rainyyears totalize no more than 2658 At the same time theregional index is negative for almost 68 of this period ascompared to 3125 for positive values The persistence ofdrought conditions never exceeds three consecutive yearsExtremenegative values for this dry stage are recorded in 1989(minus168) 2000 (minus187) and 2001 (minus149)

The last period of this precipitation series (2003ndash2013)in which 82 of the years have a positive regional index is

described as rainy On the whole this last stage distinguishesitself through an uninterrupted sequence of 7 years (2007ndash2013) with positive regional indices The percentage of rainyand very rainy years recorded at all stations (5572) is in netincrease while dry and very dry years with 2061 are in netdecrease as compared to the previous period

313 The Tunisia Situation Precipitation data recorded in1970ndash2013 in Tunisia (Figure 2) are characterised by a sig-nificant variability previously emphasized during the studyof Morocco and Algeria series The MGTCI graphical matrixshows once more three major characteristic periods

(i) The first stage starts in 1970 and finishes in 1986 andis marked by a lack of trend The regional index ispositive for almost 53 of years and negative forthe remaining 47 The percentages calculated at allstations for wet and very wet classes show that almost42 of years belong to this precipitation categoryThe dry and very dry classes represent just over 39of years This first period just like that analyzed forAlgeria is characterised by an important variation ofextreme years (two years namely 1981 with a negativeindex of minus179 and 1982 with a positive index of+177 show this particularity) The beginning of theperiod tends less to this oscillation (a sequence ofthree rainy years is noticeable from 1971 to 1973)

(ii) The second period is marked by a dry trend whichlasts 16 years on this territory The regional indexshows that almost 63 of years record a negativevalue The years belonging to the dry and very dryclass totalize almost 55 for all stations Rainy andvery rainy years only account for 2290 Successivestageswith the same trends exceed nomore than threeyears (1987ndash1989 and 2000ndash2003 for negative indicesand 1995ndash1997 for positive indices) Four years standout through negative indices which exceed minus1 1988(minus136) 1989 (minus103) 1993 (minus146) 2000 (minus168) and2001 (minus146)

(iii) The last period (2003ndash2013) is considered wet Theregional index is positive for a period of 8 years Thereturn of drought conditions is noted in 2007 in 2008(index aboveminus05) and in 2012 (index equal to minus125)Rainy and very rainy years are evaluated for this phaseat almost 48 while dry and very dry years totalize3131 These numbers thus indicate an increase ofyears in the first class of +25 as compared to theprevious period and a regress of the arid and very aridclass of minus2364

32 A Net Increase of Rainy and Very Rainy Years for theDecade 2002ndash2011 Figure 3 was completed by starting fromthe decennial averages of the categories of rainy and veryrainy dry and very dry years and normal averages calculatedfor the 1982ndash2011 interval confirming the previous argumentsfor the return of rainfall conditions in central Maghreb

(i) The analysis of the decade 1982ndash1991 (map shownin Figure 3(a)) shows the predominance of drought

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 7

(b) 1992ndash2001

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

(c) 2002ndash2011

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)

(a) 1982ndash1991

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)0 420210105

(Miles)

Mediterranean Sea

AlgeriaTunisiaMorocco

Spain

AtlanticOcean

France

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

+++++

+ +

++

+ + +

+ +

+ + +

+

++

TazaAzzaba

Sefrou

Nador

Agadir

Casablanca

IfraneSafi

Marrakech

Ouarzazate

Gabes

Kairouan

Sfax

Tozeur

Bizerte

Gafsa

Tabarka

Jendouba Oran

AnnabaSkikdaChlef

BiskraEl Bayed Djelfa

ConstantineBatna

Kenitra

0 625 125 250

(Miles)

N

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Tunis CarthageTeacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Figure 3 The evolution of precipitation accumulations of extreme years (1982ndash2011)

conditions in nineteen stations which record morethan 50 dry and very dry years and only 7 whichcorrespond to wet and wetter conditions for a littleover a half of the duration of the period studied

(ii) The 1992ndash2001 period (map shown in Figure 3(b))shows a more drastic precipitation situation with 21stations that display rainfall accumulations from thedry to the very dry category of over 50 At the sametime one may note the low values of rainy and veryrainy years that reach 50 only at Skikda Biskra andTetouan and are below this level at the remainingstations

(iii) The analysis of the map shown in Figure 3(c) for the2002ndash2011 period of measurements clearly illustratesthe predominance of rainy and very rainy years at

most stations (25) Dry years reach 50 only at threestations (Marrakech Sefrou and Sfax) As for rainyyears they exceed 40 at all stations except Dar elBeıda Djelfa and Gafsa

The last map (Figure 4) displays the differences betweenthe last two decades (1992ndash2001 and 2002ndash2011) betweenprecipitation accumulations of rainy and very rainy yearsand dry and very dry years This graphical representationallows us to see the evolution of extreme rainfall for thetwo already discussed periods It reveals the importance ofpositive differences which indicate an increase of the formercategory in 83 of the stations A decrease is recorded onlyat three stations (Dar el Beıda Djelfa and Gafsa) whilefor Constantine Marrakech and Sfax stabilisation of valuesof 0 can be noted This map confirms a return of more

8 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Spain

Morocco Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Rainy and very rainy yearsDry and very dry years

Sahara

300 248

(Miles)

Figure 4 Differences between the last two decades (rainy and very rainy years and dry and very dry years)

favorable conditions throughout the entire territory as thedecrease of dry and very dry years is common at 29 of thestations (of which 14 show stabilisation of this category ofhumidity for the two decades)

(i) In Tunisia southern stations (Sfax and Tozeur) do notfollow this trend and are characterised by a rise inthe percentage of dry and very dry years of +20 and+10 respectively

(ii) In Algeria the Constantine Annaba and Skikda sta-tions located in the east of the country record a risingtrend of 10 for the first station and stabilisation ofvalues for the last two

In Morocco only one station (Marrakech) is not keepingupwith the return of rainy conditions as it records a rise in dryand very dry years of 10 On the Atlantic coast Casablancaand Safi are the other two stations in this vast country thatmanifest a stable trend of extreme years regarding this lastcategory

The processing of the trend of extreme years from 1970 to2013 (the percentage of stations which recorded a rainy andvery rainy year dry and very dry year or a normal one) forthe three countries confirms previous results

We can see in Figure 5(a) that since the 2000s thepercentage developed for dry and very dry years has beenclearly in constant decline in all three countries At the sametime rainy and very rainy years show a rising trend con-firmed starting with this last date (Figure 5(b)) Figure 5(c)concerning the class of normal years allows one to note thatthe percentage of stations after displaying a trend of decreasefrom 1995 to 2000 increases starting with this last date for

Algeria and Tunisia but decreases for Moroccan stationswhich confirms a steady return of thewet stage in this country(considering the previously developed arguments for theother two classes)

The analysis of precipitation evolution in centralMaghreb(Morocco Algeria and Tunisia) revealed a significant vari-ability typical of theMediterranean climate (which is strongerfor the last two countries) A first wet period marks the pre-cipitation series in Morocco (1970ndash1979) while in the othertwo countries from 1970 to 1986 no significant trend canbe noted This study also allowed us to highlight the durableand drastic nature of the climatic drought affecting Moroccoformore than two decades (1980ndash2001) Indeed precipitationdeficits in these countries are intense and may persist forlong periods of time (1980ndash1987 1991ndash1994 and 1998ndash2001)Climatic drought recorded in Algeria and Tunisia is shorter(1987ndash2002) and the cycles of years of deficits not only aresynchronised between the two countries but also are lessextended in time and they never exceed three consecutive dryyears (1987ndash1989 1993-1994 and 2000ndash2002)

Finally the rainfall return period is generalised in theMaghreb area under study Starting with 2002 in Moroccoand 2003 in Algeria and Tunisia values confirm a returntowards more rainy conditions despite the persistence ofextreme variability which is characterised by a brief returnof dry and very dry years (2006 and 2008)

This new period marks a break from past droughtyperiods despite the return once in a while of deficient years(eg in 2005 and 2006 forAlgeria andTunisia and 2006 2007and 2011 for Morocco)

Figure 6 developed starting from the mobile average ofall stations studied sums up the main 3 stages that have

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 9

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70(

)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(a)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(b)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(c)

Figure 5 Mobile frequency averages of stations that recorded dry and very dry years (a) rainy and very rainy years (b) and normal years (c)(1970ndash2011 for Morocco and 1970ndash2013 for Algeria and Tunisia)

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

MaghrebAlgeria

MoroccoTunisia

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

Figure 6 Reduced centered deviations of annual rainfall accumu-lations recorded in central Maghreb (mobile average calculated for35 weather stations in 1970ndash2011)

affected Maghreb pluviometry during the last 44 years Thefirst humid stage is noticeable from 1970 to 1979 followed bythe great climatic drought which lasts almost a half a centuryand finally the rainfall return which can be noted as of 2003

Thus south coast regions of westernMediterranean basinhave been subjected in the last years to strong climatedisturbances (these facts are not concordant with the resultsof climate patterns already cited for precipitations)The signsof change are extremely eloquent for the latest years in allthis region of North Africa as evidenced by the rainfallobserved between September 2008 and September 2009 InMorocco [42] The 2009-2010 rainfalls are also considered asexceptional and historic because they allowed for the fillingof dams at their maximum capacity (the filling rate of theAl Wahda Dam the largest of the kingdom located in theOuergha Wadi was 985) These rains ensured a recordcereal production of 80 million quintals (for 20092010)Thistrend was confirmed for 20122013 because with an averagepluviometry of 450mm the excess rainfall on a national scaleamounts to +20 as compared to a normal year [42] At thesame time this agricultural campaign ensured a new recordcereal production evaluated at 97 million quintals For 2014the filling of dams in operation reached nationwide a level of7238 while westward in areas that were affected by distur-bances an exceptional percentage of filling of 87was notedIn the Moroccan South observation data revealed a return

10 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

towards more humid conditions in the Tafilet oasis [43ndash46] and a reinstatement of several ldquoFoggarasrdquo (a traditionalhydraulic systemaffected by past climatic droughts) At timesthis rainfall return occurs in extreme episodes as was the caseof the recent floods (November 2014) which hit central andsouth-western Morocco (Agadir Guelmin and Marrakechareas) In the first area rains recorded very high intensities(250mm in 3 days from the 28th to the 30th of November2014) which represents almost 90 of the observed averageannual accumulation (280mm)

As regards Algeria the situation seems similar becausethe 20082009 agricultural campaign was described as highlysatisfactory and the cereal production recorded the followingyear (20092010) is a record of 612 million quintals thathas never been equalled The hydrological situation is assatisfactory as in Morocco judging by the Ministry ofAgriculture publications an unprecedented dam filling upwhich amounted to nearly 72 in 2010 and 81 in April2013 for the 65 dams in operation and to 804 in March2014 levels that had never been reached hitherto The effectsof climate changes are also manifested in this country byextreme events (a succession of hot episodes in 2015 with athreshold temperature of 50∘C exceeded at Ourgla on August2nd 2015 and of snowfall in the Assekrem mountains inHoggar massif located in southern Algeria a very rare factnever observed since 1945)

In Tunisia the situation is less obvious because three-quarters of the country have an arid and semiarid climateThis new trend is still noticeable through a rise in intenseprecipitation events and anet increase of the number of floods(Sfax city very well illustrates this the city was flooded twicein 1969 and 1982 and despite important improvement workscarried out in 1984 and the past years it was flooded again in2009 and 2013) [47]

4 Conclusions

To conclude we may say that the climate change observedduring the last years is characterised by a rainfall return butwith a far greater intensity In Algeria the severe disturbances(which lead to a pluviometry of over 30mm24 h) are onthe rise in the last years (data ONM) This again is notconcordant with the IPCC conclusions which point out adecrease of disturbances over the Mediterranean space Atthe same time the temperature trend continues to be rising(despite a slight cooling of values recorded during the lastyears)

The variability of short-term global climate is generallyassociated with coupling phases of oceanic and atmosphericphenomena including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) While El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability in theworld the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the climatemodel dominant in the North Atlantic region The lattercyclic oscillationwhose role is still under debate could explainthe variability of rainfall in much of the Mediterranean areaand support the hypothesis of a return of the rains markingthe end of years of drought in central Maghreb

Further analysis of the response of rainfall to the NorthAtlantic Oscillation shows that drought seems more in linewith the positive indicators of high intensity demonstratinggreater strengthening of the pressure in Azores and weaken-ing of the Icelandic Low pressure Under these conditionsthe depressions are pushed towards northern latitudes whichpromotes the establishment of a dry and mild weather onthe periphery of the Mediterranean basin and North Africanregions

When the signal fades or becomes negative the pressureassociated with the Azores high is lower compared to thenormal value and at the same time the Icelandic Lowis barely formed According to this mode of traffic thedepressions corridorwithdraws further south and thus affectsthe Mediterranean regions of the south shore which will bewetter

This return of rainfall over central Maghreb should itbe confirmed could mean the end of several decades ofrecurrent droughts and announce a durable return to ldquothenormalrdquo This assumption is supported by emphasizingthe impact of different world climate oscillations (NorthAtlantic Oscillation El Nino Southern Oscillation) for allthe continents and particularly for the African continent[27 48] Do these facts announce a new climate phasewhich marks a break from past drastic conditions Suchquestion is difficult to answer today but climate data andinformation concerning the hydraulics and agriculture ofMaghreb confirm a completely unique situation in this vastarea of North Africa

Faced with such great changes that today affect theMaghreb region and given the complexity of spatial andtemporal dimensions of the climatic signal a more thoroughresearch of causes and retroactions would allow for a betterunderstanding of the mechanisms behind this new trendThese investigations should integrate and quantify the roleof terrigenous aerosols in the dynamics of local climateand show the importance of sea surface temperatures inregulating rainfall

Additional Points

Check the following websites

WMO World Meteorological Organisation httpwwwwmointpagesindex enhtmlONM Office National de la Meteorologie (Algeria)httpwwwmeteodzDirection de la Meteorologie Nationale (Morocco)httpwwwmarocmeteomaIMN Institut de la Meteorologie Nationale (Tunisia)httpwwwmeteotndefaulthtmlNCDC National Climatic Data Center httpwwwncdcnoaagov

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 11

References

[1] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GIECChangements climatiques en 2013 Les elements scientifiquesresume a lrsquointention des decideurs service drsquoappui techniquedu groupe de travail I GTI 2013 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar5wg1WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINALFRENCHpdf

[2] NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis for Annual 2014 2015 httpwwwncdcnoaagovsotcglobal201413

[3] WMO (Wolrd Meteorological Organization) ldquoHotter drierwetter Face the futurerdquo Bulletin vol 65 no 1 p 64 2016

[4] Wolrd Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statement on theStatus of Global Climate in 2012 2013

[5] M H I Dore ldquoClimate change and changes in global precipi-tation patterns what do we knowrdquo Environment Internationalvol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[6] L V Alexander X Zhang T C Peterson et al ldquoGlobal observedchanges in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipita-tionrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 111 no5 Article ID D05109 pp 1ndash22 2006

[7] M New M Todd M Hulme and P Jones ldquoPrecipitation mea-surements and trends in the twentieth centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 21 no 15 pp 1899ndash1922 2001

[8] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 2007 The PhysicalSciences Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds chapter11 pp 847ndash940 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK2007 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg1ar4-wg1-chapter11pdf

[9] S Planton M Deque H Douville and B Spagnoli ldquoImpact durechauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologiquerdquo ComptesRendus Geoscience vol 337 no 1 pp 193ndash202 2005

[10] F Giorgi ldquoClimate change hot-spotsrdquoGeophysical Research Let-ters vol 33 no 8 2006

[11] F Giorgi and P Lionello ldquoClimate change projections for theMediterranean regionrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 63no 2-3 pp 90ndash104 2008

[12] Blue Plan Environment and development in MediterraneanClimate change in the Mediterranean no 9 pp 4 2008

[13] E Xoplakie Climate variability over the mediterranean [PhDthesis] University of Bern Bern Switzerland 2002

[14] P Lionello J Bhend A Buzzi et al ldquoCyclones in the Mediter-ranean region climatology and effects on the environmentrdquoinMediterranean Climate Variability P Lionello P Malanotte-Rizzoli and R Abd Boscolo Eds pp 324ndash372 ElsevierAmsterdam The Netherlands 2006

[15] F Jin A Kitoh and P Alpert ldquoWater cycle changes over theMediterranean a comparison study of a super-high-resolutionglobal model with CMIP3rdquo Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sci-ences vol 368 no 1931 pp 5137ndash5149 2010

[16] C C Raible B Ziv H Saaroni andMWild ldquoWinter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under futureclimate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5rdquo ClimateDynamics vol 35 no 2-3 pp 473ndash488 2010

[17] S O Krichak J S Breitgand R Samuels and P Alpert ldquoAdouble-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation

experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the EasternMediterranean regionrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatologyvol 103 no 1 pp 167ndash195 2011

[18] C M Philandras P T Nastos J Kapsomenakis K C DouvisG Tselioudis andC S Zerefos ldquoLong termprecipitation trendsand variability within the Mediterranean regionrdquo Natural Haz-ards and Earth System Sciences vol 11 no 12 pp 3235ndash32502011

[19] M Giannakopoulos M Bindi M Moriondo and T TinldquoClimate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a2∘C global temperature riserdquo A Report for WWF httpwwwfaoorgfileadminuser uploadrome2007docsClimate ChangeAdaptation Water Sector NENApdf

[20] G Tselioudis C Zerefos P Zanis P Repapis and I Kape-spmenakis ldquoFuture trends in Mediterranean precipitation andpossible connections with the phase pf the North AtlanticOscillationrdquo in Proceedings of the 9th Conference of MeteorologyClimatology andAtmospheric Physics pp 513ndash520ThessalonikiGreece May 2008

[21] M Dubrovsky M Hayes P Duce M Trnka M Svoboda andP Zara ldquoMulti-GCM projections of future drought and climatevariability indicators for the Mediterranean regionrdquo RegionalEnvironmental Change vol 14 no 5 pp 1907ndash1919 2014

[22] P Alpert T Ben-Gai A Baharad et al ldquoThe paradoxicalincrease of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofdecrease in total valuesrdquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 29no 11 pp 1ndash31 2002

[23] WMO (WolrdMeteorological Organization) ldquoStatement on thestatus of global climate in 2012rdquo Tech Rep 1108 2013

[24] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangements clima-tiques au Maghreb vers des conditions plus humides et pluschaudes sur le littoral algerien rdquo Physio-Geo vol 7 pp 307ndash3232013

[25] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumidesrdquo in dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et Ses Marges Actesdu XXVII Colloque International de Climatologie pp 399ndash405Dijon France 2014

[26] M G Donat T C Peterson M Brunet et al ldquoChanges inextreme temperature and precipitation in theArab region long-term trends and variability related to ENSO andNAOrdquo Interna-tional Journal of Climatology vol 34 no 3 pp 581ndash592 2014

[27] A Sebbar W Badri H Fougrach M Hsain and A SalouildquoEtude de la variabilite du regime pluviometrique au Marocseptentrional (1935ndash2004)rdquo Secheresse vol 22 no 3 pp 139ndash148 2011

[28] Z Nouaceur ldquoEvaluation des changements climatiques auMaghreb Etude du cas des regions du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du 23rd Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie lsquoRisques et Changements Clima-tiquesrsquo pp 463ndash468 Rennes France 2010

[29] M Amyay Z Nouaceur A Tribak Kh Okba and A TaousldquoCaracterisation des evenements pluviometriques extremesdans le Moyen Atlas marocain et ses margesrdquo in Actes duXXV eme Colloque International de Climatologie pp 75ndash80Grenoble France 2012

[30] K Khomsi G Mahe Y Tramblay M Sinan and M SnoussildquoTrends in rainfall and temperature extremes in MoroccordquoNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions vol 3no 2 pp 1175ndash1201 2015

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

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Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

4 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Table1Pluviometry

ofcentralM

aghreb

Morocco

Agadir

Azzaba

Casablanca

Fes

Ifrane

Kenitra

Marrakech

Meknes

Nador

Ouarzazate

Safi

Sefro

uTaza

Tetouan

Min

8143

1470

010772

20000

51710

25246

9520

1815

015455

2508

1470

61917

3114

1030840

Q1

1276

024800

27398

3399

06393

03573

814200

38030

25091

7274

24118

4017

041850

45406

Q2

19000

30200

33114

44610

8692

05016

419861

47850

28545

9371

31849

48582

5097

058852

Me

21295

31300

3473

847520

93520

5377

02174

151530

3090

910444

32521

51110

55440

64020

Q3

24308

33300

39214

49610

96020

59344

23571

54020

3418

211229

35882

5594

061260

66695

Q4

33840

41500

50895

5913

0109990

69500

30640

6794

039273

15427

46639

67300

79000

8014

0Max

65405

6670

07619

085500

174210

9278

746376

11474

067280

2478

088319

99250

100580

121597

Algeria

Ann

aba

Batna

Bejaıa

Biskra

Con

stantine

Dar

ElBe

ıda

Djelfa

Chlef

ElBa

yed

Oran

Skikda

Tebessa

Min

4090

01592

032000

4700

25330

28000

15240

21350

10670

1717

04916

01990

0Q1

53110

23400

6310

06907

42600

47540

2490

029800

2191

02595

061590

28230

Q2

58440

2990

07490

09390

4919

060

600

30440

3377

026620

32200

66630

3498

0Me

61460

3470

078080

12598

51420

68352

32460

3610

027090

35070

7298

037035

Q3

66244

4073

083300

13361

57030

7175

034230

4191

030460

40420

76490

40680

Q4

77300

17680

9692

019030

8619

07978

039480

48510

38086

4391

087670

51070

Max

112600

36219

137341

29500

81229

116900

51270

57711

54657

6090

0114

820

64660

Tunisia

Bizerte

Gabes

Gafsa

Jend

ouba

Kairo

uan

Sfax

Tabarka

Tozeur

Tunis

Min

37390

8650

3900

24490

13330

9480

57450

2220

26030

Q1

4674

012110

10690

33420

2212

014290

79050

4640

35310

Q2

6116

01419

013450

41570

2793

018430

9379

07660

4198

0ME

6792

017350

1495

046

030

2997

020230

9717

08420

45600

Q3

72430

20590

1696

049030

32400

23240

102480

9190

4995

0Q4

78560

3113

021640

57260

3674

030670

116190

11420

59370

Max

98310

4717

050230

84010

51870

4494

038640

16820

101160

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 5

Morocco Tunisia Algeria

Year

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 3519701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

minus093020

123048

minus055minus018

142minus121minus112

039048

minus149161

minus187067

minus027104

minus093minus074

minus168067

minus008086

minus130minus121

minus065086

048minus055

048minus187

minus149minus074

114123

minus018minus046

076029

095104

123086

114

minus2 minus1 0 1 2

157099

minus016109

minus083minus026

032090

042022

minus035minus083

minus112minus121

minus083minus054

minus093minus026

061032

128minus035minus045

minus083minus141

051137

099minus112

minus083minus074minus074

032128

minus093013

minus093minus141

157195

224minus102

minus224 minus112 0 112 224

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

minus125026

091155

minus049047

155minus114

minus006047

minus006minus179

177minus136

069minus103

069minus093

minus136minus103

134minus017

091minus146

minus082015

101080

minus028026

minus168minus146

minus039187

037015

058minus017

minus125134

015080

minus039047

minus2 minus1 0 1 2

Rainfall trend at stationVery wet + Wet

minus Dry

Regional rainfall trend

WetNormalDryVery dry

Rainfall trend at stationVery wet + Wet

minus Dry

Regional rainfall trend

WetNormalDryVery dry

Number Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m)1 Taza minus402 3421 5212 Azzaba minus473 3383 6893 Sefrou minus449 3349 8014 Nador minus292 3513 2265 minus533 3558 106 Agadir minus955 3038 117 minus497 3393 5988 Casablanca minus767 3356 629 minus66 343 1710 minus553 3388 54911 Ifrane minus517 335 166012 Safi minus923 3228 4513 Marrakech minus803 3161 47414 Ouarzazet minus69 3093 118715 Gabes 1006 3353 416 Kairouan 1006 354 6017 Sfax 1041 3443 2118 Tozeur 806 3355 87

19 Tunis 1014 365 420 Bizerte 948 3715 521 Gafsa 849 3425 31322 Tabarka 854 3658 6623 Jendouba 848 3629 14324 Oran minus036 3538 9025 313 3641 2526 Annaba 749 365 827 Skikda 654 3653 1328 504 3643 17429 Chlef 12 3613 14330 Biskra 544 3448 8231 El Bayed 1 334 134132 Djelfa 323 342 118033 807 3525 8204734 Constantine 637 3613 68535 Batna 619 3545 822

Number Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m)

Teacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda

Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Keacutenitra

Figure 2 MGCTI classification of annual precipitation according to quintiles Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 and Q5 (measurement period from 1970 to2013)

A period qualified as wet is visible on the matrix during1970ndash1979 This decade contains 70 of the years withpositive regional index The highest values are noted at thebeginning of the period (+157 for 1970 and +109 for 1973)Almost 50 of annual rainfall accumulations are consideredas wet and very wet The percentage of average year reaches2571 while during dry years it represents 2714

In 1980 a new drier climatic phase began and lasted until2001 Only 30 of the years of this long period stretching overmore than two decades show a positive regional index The

proportion of dry and very dry years reaches 4901 that ofnormal years 1875 and that of rainy and very rainy years3223

The regional graph allows us to distinguish three drysubperiods (negative regional index) with two rainy periodsof three successive years in between

(i) From 1980 to 1987 an uninterrupted succession ofyears with negative regional indices can be noted It isa period of severe drought whichmarks a large part of

6 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

the Moroccan territory The values are relatively highfor 1982 (minus112) 1983 (minus121) and 1986 (minus093) Forall Moroccan stations studied the proportion of dryand very dry years reaches almost 56 while rainyand very rainy years account for a little more than aquarter with 24 This long period characterised bya lack of humidity is followed by three years (1988ndash1990) during which positive regional indices and ahumid trend are recorded

(ii) From 1991 to 1994 rainfall accumulations becomenegative again

(iii) The regional index reaches during this final year oneof the lowest values of the series minus141

(iv) From 1995 to 1997 a short wet period marks theMoroccan pluviometry with a spectacular increase ofpluviometry (the regional index reaches +137 in 1996one of the highest values of the first three decades ofthis series)

(v) The stage covering the 1998ndash2001 period is markedby the return of drastic conditions A little more than60 of rainfall accumulations recorded at variousstations are considered as dry or very dry

(vi) The last period (2002ndash2011) of the precipitation seriesis considered as wet (60 of the years recorded apositive index) At the same time the percentageof rainy and very rainy years at all stations reaches5238 The last years of the series provide evidenceof change of trend for this decade Indeed from 2008to 2010 the percentage of rainy and very rainy yearsgoes from 7857 to 8571 and 9285

312 The Algeria Situation The MGCTI graphical matrix(Figure 2) shows for Algeria an organisation of rainfall accu-mulations into three characteristic periods

A first stage of strong variability in 1970ndash1986No genuineclimatic trend stands out in this period All stations understudy are characterised by an almost even distribution ofextreme classes of annual rainfall rainy and very rainy (40)dry and very dry (3950) and normal (205)The regionalindex is negative for more than 47 of the years as opposedto 5294 for positive values What is remarkable aboutthis period is undoubtedly a powerful interannual oscillationbetween dry year and wet year A sequence of three rainyyears (1971ndash1973) can be noted at the beginning of the serieswhile for the rest of the period trend inversions (dry yearrainy year) are for two successive years at most

A second stage starts in 1987 and finishes in 2002 It ismarked by a drying trend because 5560 of the years areconsidered to be dry and very dry while rainy and very rainyyears totalize no more than 2658 At the same time theregional index is negative for almost 68 of this period ascompared to 3125 for positive values The persistence ofdrought conditions never exceeds three consecutive yearsExtremenegative values for this dry stage are recorded in 1989(minus168) 2000 (minus187) and 2001 (minus149)

The last period of this precipitation series (2003ndash2013)in which 82 of the years have a positive regional index is

described as rainy On the whole this last stage distinguishesitself through an uninterrupted sequence of 7 years (2007ndash2013) with positive regional indices The percentage of rainyand very rainy years recorded at all stations (5572) is in netincrease while dry and very dry years with 2061 are in netdecrease as compared to the previous period

313 The Tunisia Situation Precipitation data recorded in1970ndash2013 in Tunisia (Figure 2) are characterised by a sig-nificant variability previously emphasized during the studyof Morocco and Algeria series The MGTCI graphical matrixshows once more three major characteristic periods

(i) The first stage starts in 1970 and finishes in 1986 andis marked by a lack of trend The regional index ispositive for almost 53 of years and negative forthe remaining 47 The percentages calculated at allstations for wet and very wet classes show that almost42 of years belong to this precipitation categoryThe dry and very dry classes represent just over 39of years This first period just like that analyzed forAlgeria is characterised by an important variation ofextreme years (two years namely 1981 with a negativeindex of minus179 and 1982 with a positive index of+177 show this particularity) The beginning of theperiod tends less to this oscillation (a sequence ofthree rainy years is noticeable from 1971 to 1973)

(ii) The second period is marked by a dry trend whichlasts 16 years on this territory The regional indexshows that almost 63 of years record a negativevalue The years belonging to the dry and very dryclass totalize almost 55 for all stations Rainy andvery rainy years only account for 2290 Successivestageswith the same trends exceed nomore than threeyears (1987ndash1989 and 2000ndash2003 for negative indicesand 1995ndash1997 for positive indices) Four years standout through negative indices which exceed minus1 1988(minus136) 1989 (minus103) 1993 (minus146) 2000 (minus168) and2001 (minus146)

(iii) The last period (2003ndash2013) is considered wet Theregional index is positive for a period of 8 years Thereturn of drought conditions is noted in 2007 in 2008(index aboveminus05) and in 2012 (index equal to minus125)Rainy and very rainy years are evaluated for this phaseat almost 48 while dry and very dry years totalize3131 These numbers thus indicate an increase ofyears in the first class of +25 as compared to theprevious period and a regress of the arid and very aridclass of minus2364

32 A Net Increase of Rainy and Very Rainy Years for theDecade 2002ndash2011 Figure 3 was completed by starting fromthe decennial averages of the categories of rainy and veryrainy dry and very dry years and normal averages calculatedfor the 1982ndash2011 interval confirming the previous argumentsfor the return of rainfall conditions in central Maghreb

(i) The analysis of the decade 1982ndash1991 (map shownin Figure 3(a)) shows the predominance of drought

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 7

(b) 1992ndash2001

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

(c) 2002ndash2011

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)

(a) 1982ndash1991

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)0 420210105

(Miles)

Mediterranean Sea

AlgeriaTunisiaMorocco

Spain

AtlanticOcean

France

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

+++++

+ +

++

+ + +

+ +

+ + +

+

++

TazaAzzaba

Sefrou

Nador

Agadir

Casablanca

IfraneSafi

Marrakech

Ouarzazate

Gabes

Kairouan

Sfax

Tozeur

Bizerte

Gafsa

Tabarka

Jendouba Oran

AnnabaSkikdaChlef

BiskraEl Bayed Djelfa

ConstantineBatna

Kenitra

0 625 125 250

(Miles)

N

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Tunis CarthageTeacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Figure 3 The evolution of precipitation accumulations of extreme years (1982ndash2011)

conditions in nineteen stations which record morethan 50 dry and very dry years and only 7 whichcorrespond to wet and wetter conditions for a littleover a half of the duration of the period studied

(ii) The 1992ndash2001 period (map shown in Figure 3(b))shows a more drastic precipitation situation with 21stations that display rainfall accumulations from thedry to the very dry category of over 50 At the sametime one may note the low values of rainy and veryrainy years that reach 50 only at Skikda Biskra andTetouan and are below this level at the remainingstations

(iii) The analysis of the map shown in Figure 3(c) for the2002ndash2011 period of measurements clearly illustratesthe predominance of rainy and very rainy years at

most stations (25) Dry years reach 50 only at threestations (Marrakech Sefrou and Sfax) As for rainyyears they exceed 40 at all stations except Dar elBeıda Djelfa and Gafsa

The last map (Figure 4) displays the differences betweenthe last two decades (1992ndash2001 and 2002ndash2011) betweenprecipitation accumulations of rainy and very rainy yearsand dry and very dry years This graphical representationallows us to see the evolution of extreme rainfall for thetwo already discussed periods It reveals the importance ofpositive differences which indicate an increase of the formercategory in 83 of the stations A decrease is recorded onlyat three stations (Dar el Beıda Djelfa and Gafsa) whilefor Constantine Marrakech and Sfax stabilisation of valuesof 0 can be noted This map confirms a return of more

8 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Spain

Morocco Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Rainy and very rainy yearsDry and very dry years

Sahara

300 248

(Miles)

Figure 4 Differences between the last two decades (rainy and very rainy years and dry and very dry years)

favorable conditions throughout the entire territory as thedecrease of dry and very dry years is common at 29 of thestations (of which 14 show stabilisation of this category ofhumidity for the two decades)

(i) In Tunisia southern stations (Sfax and Tozeur) do notfollow this trend and are characterised by a rise inthe percentage of dry and very dry years of +20 and+10 respectively

(ii) In Algeria the Constantine Annaba and Skikda sta-tions located in the east of the country record a risingtrend of 10 for the first station and stabilisation ofvalues for the last two

In Morocco only one station (Marrakech) is not keepingupwith the return of rainy conditions as it records a rise in dryand very dry years of 10 On the Atlantic coast Casablancaand Safi are the other two stations in this vast country thatmanifest a stable trend of extreme years regarding this lastcategory

The processing of the trend of extreme years from 1970 to2013 (the percentage of stations which recorded a rainy andvery rainy year dry and very dry year or a normal one) forthe three countries confirms previous results

We can see in Figure 5(a) that since the 2000s thepercentage developed for dry and very dry years has beenclearly in constant decline in all three countries At the sametime rainy and very rainy years show a rising trend con-firmed starting with this last date (Figure 5(b)) Figure 5(c)concerning the class of normal years allows one to note thatthe percentage of stations after displaying a trend of decreasefrom 1995 to 2000 increases starting with this last date for

Algeria and Tunisia but decreases for Moroccan stationswhich confirms a steady return of thewet stage in this country(considering the previously developed arguments for theother two classes)

The analysis of precipitation evolution in centralMaghreb(Morocco Algeria and Tunisia) revealed a significant vari-ability typical of theMediterranean climate (which is strongerfor the last two countries) A first wet period marks the pre-cipitation series in Morocco (1970ndash1979) while in the othertwo countries from 1970 to 1986 no significant trend canbe noted This study also allowed us to highlight the durableand drastic nature of the climatic drought affecting Moroccoformore than two decades (1980ndash2001) Indeed precipitationdeficits in these countries are intense and may persist forlong periods of time (1980ndash1987 1991ndash1994 and 1998ndash2001)Climatic drought recorded in Algeria and Tunisia is shorter(1987ndash2002) and the cycles of years of deficits not only aresynchronised between the two countries but also are lessextended in time and they never exceed three consecutive dryyears (1987ndash1989 1993-1994 and 2000ndash2002)

Finally the rainfall return period is generalised in theMaghreb area under study Starting with 2002 in Moroccoand 2003 in Algeria and Tunisia values confirm a returntowards more rainy conditions despite the persistence ofextreme variability which is characterised by a brief returnof dry and very dry years (2006 and 2008)

This new period marks a break from past droughtyperiods despite the return once in a while of deficient years(eg in 2005 and 2006 forAlgeria andTunisia and 2006 2007and 2011 for Morocco)

Figure 6 developed starting from the mobile average ofall stations studied sums up the main 3 stages that have

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 9

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70(

)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(a)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(b)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(c)

Figure 5 Mobile frequency averages of stations that recorded dry and very dry years (a) rainy and very rainy years (b) and normal years (c)(1970ndash2011 for Morocco and 1970ndash2013 for Algeria and Tunisia)

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

MaghrebAlgeria

MoroccoTunisia

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

Figure 6 Reduced centered deviations of annual rainfall accumu-lations recorded in central Maghreb (mobile average calculated for35 weather stations in 1970ndash2011)

affected Maghreb pluviometry during the last 44 years Thefirst humid stage is noticeable from 1970 to 1979 followed bythe great climatic drought which lasts almost a half a centuryand finally the rainfall return which can be noted as of 2003

Thus south coast regions of westernMediterranean basinhave been subjected in the last years to strong climatedisturbances (these facts are not concordant with the resultsof climate patterns already cited for precipitations)The signsof change are extremely eloquent for the latest years in allthis region of North Africa as evidenced by the rainfallobserved between September 2008 and September 2009 InMorocco [42] The 2009-2010 rainfalls are also considered asexceptional and historic because they allowed for the fillingof dams at their maximum capacity (the filling rate of theAl Wahda Dam the largest of the kingdom located in theOuergha Wadi was 985) These rains ensured a recordcereal production of 80 million quintals (for 20092010)Thistrend was confirmed for 20122013 because with an averagepluviometry of 450mm the excess rainfall on a national scaleamounts to +20 as compared to a normal year [42] At thesame time this agricultural campaign ensured a new recordcereal production evaluated at 97 million quintals For 2014the filling of dams in operation reached nationwide a level of7238 while westward in areas that were affected by distur-bances an exceptional percentage of filling of 87was notedIn the Moroccan South observation data revealed a return

10 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

towards more humid conditions in the Tafilet oasis [43ndash46] and a reinstatement of several ldquoFoggarasrdquo (a traditionalhydraulic systemaffected by past climatic droughts) At timesthis rainfall return occurs in extreme episodes as was the caseof the recent floods (November 2014) which hit central andsouth-western Morocco (Agadir Guelmin and Marrakechareas) In the first area rains recorded very high intensities(250mm in 3 days from the 28th to the 30th of November2014) which represents almost 90 of the observed averageannual accumulation (280mm)

As regards Algeria the situation seems similar becausethe 20082009 agricultural campaign was described as highlysatisfactory and the cereal production recorded the followingyear (20092010) is a record of 612 million quintals thathas never been equalled The hydrological situation is assatisfactory as in Morocco judging by the Ministry ofAgriculture publications an unprecedented dam filling upwhich amounted to nearly 72 in 2010 and 81 in April2013 for the 65 dams in operation and to 804 in March2014 levels that had never been reached hitherto The effectsof climate changes are also manifested in this country byextreme events (a succession of hot episodes in 2015 with athreshold temperature of 50∘C exceeded at Ourgla on August2nd 2015 and of snowfall in the Assekrem mountains inHoggar massif located in southern Algeria a very rare factnever observed since 1945)

In Tunisia the situation is less obvious because three-quarters of the country have an arid and semiarid climateThis new trend is still noticeable through a rise in intenseprecipitation events and anet increase of the number of floods(Sfax city very well illustrates this the city was flooded twicein 1969 and 1982 and despite important improvement workscarried out in 1984 and the past years it was flooded again in2009 and 2013) [47]

4 Conclusions

To conclude we may say that the climate change observedduring the last years is characterised by a rainfall return butwith a far greater intensity In Algeria the severe disturbances(which lead to a pluviometry of over 30mm24 h) are onthe rise in the last years (data ONM) This again is notconcordant with the IPCC conclusions which point out adecrease of disturbances over the Mediterranean space Atthe same time the temperature trend continues to be rising(despite a slight cooling of values recorded during the lastyears)

The variability of short-term global climate is generallyassociated with coupling phases of oceanic and atmosphericphenomena including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) While El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability in theworld the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the climatemodel dominant in the North Atlantic region The lattercyclic oscillationwhose role is still under debate could explainthe variability of rainfall in much of the Mediterranean areaand support the hypothesis of a return of the rains markingthe end of years of drought in central Maghreb

Further analysis of the response of rainfall to the NorthAtlantic Oscillation shows that drought seems more in linewith the positive indicators of high intensity demonstratinggreater strengthening of the pressure in Azores and weaken-ing of the Icelandic Low pressure Under these conditionsthe depressions are pushed towards northern latitudes whichpromotes the establishment of a dry and mild weather onthe periphery of the Mediterranean basin and North Africanregions

When the signal fades or becomes negative the pressureassociated with the Azores high is lower compared to thenormal value and at the same time the Icelandic Lowis barely formed According to this mode of traffic thedepressions corridorwithdraws further south and thus affectsthe Mediterranean regions of the south shore which will bewetter

This return of rainfall over central Maghreb should itbe confirmed could mean the end of several decades ofrecurrent droughts and announce a durable return to ldquothenormalrdquo This assumption is supported by emphasizingthe impact of different world climate oscillations (NorthAtlantic Oscillation El Nino Southern Oscillation) for allthe continents and particularly for the African continent[27 48] Do these facts announce a new climate phasewhich marks a break from past drastic conditions Suchquestion is difficult to answer today but climate data andinformation concerning the hydraulics and agriculture ofMaghreb confirm a completely unique situation in this vastarea of North Africa

Faced with such great changes that today affect theMaghreb region and given the complexity of spatial andtemporal dimensions of the climatic signal a more thoroughresearch of causes and retroactions would allow for a betterunderstanding of the mechanisms behind this new trendThese investigations should integrate and quantify the roleof terrigenous aerosols in the dynamics of local climateand show the importance of sea surface temperatures inregulating rainfall

Additional Points

Check the following websites

WMO World Meteorological Organisation httpwwwwmointpagesindex enhtmlONM Office National de la Meteorologie (Algeria)httpwwwmeteodzDirection de la Meteorologie Nationale (Morocco)httpwwwmarocmeteomaIMN Institut de la Meteorologie Nationale (Tunisia)httpwwwmeteotndefaulthtmlNCDC National Climatic Data Center httpwwwncdcnoaagov

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 11

References

[1] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GIECChangements climatiques en 2013 Les elements scientifiquesresume a lrsquointention des decideurs service drsquoappui techniquedu groupe de travail I GTI 2013 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar5wg1WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINALFRENCHpdf

[2] NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis for Annual 2014 2015 httpwwwncdcnoaagovsotcglobal201413

[3] WMO (Wolrd Meteorological Organization) ldquoHotter drierwetter Face the futurerdquo Bulletin vol 65 no 1 p 64 2016

[4] Wolrd Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statement on theStatus of Global Climate in 2012 2013

[5] M H I Dore ldquoClimate change and changes in global precipi-tation patterns what do we knowrdquo Environment Internationalvol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[6] L V Alexander X Zhang T C Peterson et al ldquoGlobal observedchanges in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipita-tionrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 111 no5 Article ID D05109 pp 1ndash22 2006

[7] M New M Todd M Hulme and P Jones ldquoPrecipitation mea-surements and trends in the twentieth centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 21 no 15 pp 1899ndash1922 2001

[8] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 2007 The PhysicalSciences Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds chapter11 pp 847ndash940 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK2007 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg1ar4-wg1-chapter11pdf

[9] S Planton M Deque H Douville and B Spagnoli ldquoImpact durechauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologiquerdquo ComptesRendus Geoscience vol 337 no 1 pp 193ndash202 2005

[10] F Giorgi ldquoClimate change hot-spotsrdquoGeophysical Research Let-ters vol 33 no 8 2006

[11] F Giorgi and P Lionello ldquoClimate change projections for theMediterranean regionrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 63no 2-3 pp 90ndash104 2008

[12] Blue Plan Environment and development in MediterraneanClimate change in the Mediterranean no 9 pp 4 2008

[13] E Xoplakie Climate variability over the mediterranean [PhDthesis] University of Bern Bern Switzerland 2002

[14] P Lionello J Bhend A Buzzi et al ldquoCyclones in the Mediter-ranean region climatology and effects on the environmentrdquoinMediterranean Climate Variability P Lionello P Malanotte-Rizzoli and R Abd Boscolo Eds pp 324ndash372 ElsevierAmsterdam The Netherlands 2006

[15] F Jin A Kitoh and P Alpert ldquoWater cycle changes over theMediterranean a comparison study of a super-high-resolutionglobal model with CMIP3rdquo Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sci-ences vol 368 no 1931 pp 5137ndash5149 2010

[16] C C Raible B Ziv H Saaroni andMWild ldquoWinter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under futureclimate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5rdquo ClimateDynamics vol 35 no 2-3 pp 473ndash488 2010

[17] S O Krichak J S Breitgand R Samuels and P Alpert ldquoAdouble-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation

experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the EasternMediterranean regionrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatologyvol 103 no 1 pp 167ndash195 2011

[18] C M Philandras P T Nastos J Kapsomenakis K C DouvisG Tselioudis andC S Zerefos ldquoLong termprecipitation trendsand variability within the Mediterranean regionrdquo Natural Haz-ards and Earth System Sciences vol 11 no 12 pp 3235ndash32502011

[19] M Giannakopoulos M Bindi M Moriondo and T TinldquoClimate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a2∘C global temperature riserdquo A Report for WWF httpwwwfaoorgfileadminuser uploadrome2007docsClimate ChangeAdaptation Water Sector NENApdf

[20] G Tselioudis C Zerefos P Zanis P Repapis and I Kape-spmenakis ldquoFuture trends in Mediterranean precipitation andpossible connections with the phase pf the North AtlanticOscillationrdquo in Proceedings of the 9th Conference of MeteorologyClimatology andAtmospheric Physics pp 513ndash520ThessalonikiGreece May 2008

[21] M Dubrovsky M Hayes P Duce M Trnka M Svoboda andP Zara ldquoMulti-GCM projections of future drought and climatevariability indicators for the Mediterranean regionrdquo RegionalEnvironmental Change vol 14 no 5 pp 1907ndash1919 2014

[22] P Alpert T Ben-Gai A Baharad et al ldquoThe paradoxicalincrease of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofdecrease in total valuesrdquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 29no 11 pp 1ndash31 2002

[23] WMO (WolrdMeteorological Organization) ldquoStatement on thestatus of global climate in 2012rdquo Tech Rep 1108 2013

[24] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangements clima-tiques au Maghreb vers des conditions plus humides et pluschaudes sur le littoral algerien rdquo Physio-Geo vol 7 pp 307ndash3232013

[25] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumidesrdquo in dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et Ses Marges Actesdu XXVII Colloque International de Climatologie pp 399ndash405Dijon France 2014

[26] M G Donat T C Peterson M Brunet et al ldquoChanges inextreme temperature and precipitation in theArab region long-term trends and variability related to ENSO andNAOrdquo Interna-tional Journal of Climatology vol 34 no 3 pp 581ndash592 2014

[27] A Sebbar W Badri H Fougrach M Hsain and A SalouildquoEtude de la variabilite du regime pluviometrique au Marocseptentrional (1935ndash2004)rdquo Secheresse vol 22 no 3 pp 139ndash148 2011

[28] Z Nouaceur ldquoEvaluation des changements climatiques auMaghreb Etude du cas des regions du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du 23rd Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie lsquoRisques et Changements Clima-tiquesrsquo pp 463ndash468 Rennes France 2010

[29] M Amyay Z Nouaceur A Tribak Kh Okba and A TaousldquoCaracterisation des evenements pluviometriques extremesdans le Moyen Atlas marocain et ses margesrdquo in Actes duXXV eme Colloque International de Climatologie pp 75ndash80Grenoble France 2012

[30] K Khomsi G Mahe Y Tramblay M Sinan and M SnoussildquoTrends in rainfall and temperature extremes in MoroccordquoNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions vol 3no 2 pp 1175ndash1201 2015

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

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EarthquakesJournal of

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Mining

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Journal of

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GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

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OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

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MineralogyInternational Journal of

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MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 5

Morocco Tunisia Algeria

Year

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 3519701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

minus093020

123048

minus055minus018

142minus121minus112

039048

minus149161

minus187067

minus027104

minus093minus074

minus168067

minus008086

minus130minus121

minus065086

048minus055

048minus187

minus149minus074

114123

minus018minus046

076029

095104

123086

114

minus2 minus1 0 1 2

157099

minus016109

minus083minus026

032090

042022

minus035minus083

minus112minus121

minus083minus054

minus093minus026

061032

128minus035minus045

minus083minus141

051137

099minus112

minus083minus074minus074

032128

minus093013

minus093minus141

157195

224minus102

minus224 minus112 0 112 224

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

minus125026

091155

minus049047

155minus114

minus006047

minus006minus179

177minus136

069minus103

069minus093

minus136minus103

134minus017

091minus146

minus082015

101080

minus028026

minus168minus146

minus039187

037015

058minus017

minus125134

015080

minus039047

minus2 minus1 0 1 2

Rainfall trend at stationVery wet + Wet

minus Dry

Regional rainfall trend

WetNormalDryVery dry

Rainfall trend at stationVery wet + Wet

minus Dry

Regional rainfall trend

WetNormalDryVery dry

Number Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m)1 Taza minus402 3421 5212 Azzaba minus473 3383 6893 Sefrou minus449 3349 8014 Nador minus292 3513 2265 minus533 3558 106 Agadir minus955 3038 117 minus497 3393 5988 Casablanca minus767 3356 629 minus66 343 1710 minus553 3388 54911 Ifrane minus517 335 166012 Safi minus923 3228 4513 Marrakech minus803 3161 47414 Ouarzazet minus69 3093 118715 Gabes 1006 3353 416 Kairouan 1006 354 6017 Sfax 1041 3443 2118 Tozeur 806 3355 87

19 Tunis 1014 365 420 Bizerte 948 3715 521 Gafsa 849 3425 31322 Tabarka 854 3658 6623 Jendouba 848 3629 14324 Oran minus036 3538 9025 313 3641 2526 Annaba 749 365 827 Skikda 654 3653 1328 504 3643 17429 Chlef 12 3613 14330 Biskra 544 3448 8231 El Bayed 1 334 134132 Djelfa 323 342 118033 807 3525 8204734 Constantine 637 3613 68535 Batna 619 3545 822

Number Station Longitude Latitude Elevation (m)

Teacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda

Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Keacutenitra

Figure 2 MGCTI classification of annual precipitation according to quintiles Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 and Q5 (measurement period from 1970 to2013)

A period qualified as wet is visible on the matrix during1970ndash1979 This decade contains 70 of the years withpositive regional index The highest values are noted at thebeginning of the period (+157 for 1970 and +109 for 1973)Almost 50 of annual rainfall accumulations are consideredas wet and very wet The percentage of average year reaches2571 while during dry years it represents 2714

In 1980 a new drier climatic phase began and lasted until2001 Only 30 of the years of this long period stretching overmore than two decades show a positive regional index The

proportion of dry and very dry years reaches 4901 that ofnormal years 1875 and that of rainy and very rainy years3223

The regional graph allows us to distinguish three drysubperiods (negative regional index) with two rainy periodsof three successive years in between

(i) From 1980 to 1987 an uninterrupted succession ofyears with negative regional indices can be noted It isa period of severe drought whichmarks a large part of

6 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

the Moroccan territory The values are relatively highfor 1982 (minus112) 1983 (minus121) and 1986 (minus093) Forall Moroccan stations studied the proportion of dryand very dry years reaches almost 56 while rainyand very rainy years account for a little more than aquarter with 24 This long period characterised bya lack of humidity is followed by three years (1988ndash1990) during which positive regional indices and ahumid trend are recorded

(ii) From 1991 to 1994 rainfall accumulations becomenegative again

(iii) The regional index reaches during this final year oneof the lowest values of the series minus141

(iv) From 1995 to 1997 a short wet period marks theMoroccan pluviometry with a spectacular increase ofpluviometry (the regional index reaches +137 in 1996one of the highest values of the first three decades ofthis series)

(v) The stage covering the 1998ndash2001 period is markedby the return of drastic conditions A little more than60 of rainfall accumulations recorded at variousstations are considered as dry or very dry

(vi) The last period (2002ndash2011) of the precipitation seriesis considered as wet (60 of the years recorded apositive index) At the same time the percentageof rainy and very rainy years at all stations reaches5238 The last years of the series provide evidenceof change of trend for this decade Indeed from 2008to 2010 the percentage of rainy and very rainy yearsgoes from 7857 to 8571 and 9285

312 The Algeria Situation The MGCTI graphical matrix(Figure 2) shows for Algeria an organisation of rainfall accu-mulations into three characteristic periods

A first stage of strong variability in 1970ndash1986No genuineclimatic trend stands out in this period All stations understudy are characterised by an almost even distribution ofextreme classes of annual rainfall rainy and very rainy (40)dry and very dry (3950) and normal (205)The regionalindex is negative for more than 47 of the years as opposedto 5294 for positive values What is remarkable aboutthis period is undoubtedly a powerful interannual oscillationbetween dry year and wet year A sequence of three rainyyears (1971ndash1973) can be noted at the beginning of the serieswhile for the rest of the period trend inversions (dry yearrainy year) are for two successive years at most

A second stage starts in 1987 and finishes in 2002 It ismarked by a drying trend because 5560 of the years areconsidered to be dry and very dry while rainy and very rainyyears totalize no more than 2658 At the same time theregional index is negative for almost 68 of this period ascompared to 3125 for positive values The persistence ofdrought conditions never exceeds three consecutive yearsExtremenegative values for this dry stage are recorded in 1989(minus168) 2000 (minus187) and 2001 (minus149)

The last period of this precipitation series (2003ndash2013)in which 82 of the years have a positive regional index is

described as rainy On the whole this last stage distinguishesitself through an uninterrupted sequence of 7 years (2007ndash2013) with positive regional indices The percentage of rainyand very rainy years recorded at all stations (5572) is in netincrease while dry and very dry years with 2061 are in netdecrease as compared to the previous period

313 The Tunisia Situation Precipitation data recorded in1970ndash2013 in Tunisia (Figure 2) are characterised by a sig-nificant variability previously emphasized during the studyof Morocco and Algeria series The MGTCI graphical matrixshows once more three major characteristic periods

(i) The first stage starts in 1970 and finishes in 1986 andis marked by a lack of trend The regional index ispositive for almost 53 of years and negative forthe remaining 47 The percentages calculated at allstations for wet and very wet classes show that almost42 of years belong to this precipitation categoryThe dry and very dry classes represent just over 39of years This first period just like that analyzed forAlgeria is characterised by an important variation ofextreme years (two years namely 1981 with a negativeindex of minus179 and 1982 with a positive index of+177 show this particularity) The beginning of theperiod tends less to this oscillation (a sequence ofthree rainy years is noticeable from 1971 to 1973)

(ii) The second period is marked by a dry trend whichlasts 16 years on this territory The regional indexshows that almost 63 of years record a negativevalue The years belonging to the dry and very dryclass totalize almost 55 for all stations Rainy andvery rainy years only account for 2290 Successivestageswith the same trends exceed nomore than threeyears (1987ndash1989 and 2000ndash2003 for negative indicesand 1995ndash1997 for positive indices) Four years standout through negative indices which exceed minus1 1988(minus136) 1989 (minus103) 1993 (minus146) 2000 (minus168) and2001 (minus146)

(iii) The last period (2003ndash2013) is considered wet Theregional index is positive for a period of 8 years Thereturn of drought conditions is noted in 2007 in 2008(index aboveminus05) and in 2012 (index equal to minus125)Rainy and very rainy years are evaluated for this phaseat almost 48 while dry and very dry years totalize3131 These numbers thus indicate an increase ofyears in the first class of +25 as compared to theprevious period and a regress of the arid and very aridclass of minus2364

32 A Net Increase of Rainy and Very Rainy Years for theDecade 2002ndash2011 Figure 3 was completed by starting fromthe decennial averages of the categories of rainy and veryrainy dry and very dry years and normal averages calculatedfor the 1982ndash2011 interval confirming the previous argumentsfor the return of rainfall conditions in central Maghreb

(i) The analysis of the decade 1982ndash1991 (map shownin Figure 3(a)) shows the predominance of drought

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 7

(b) 1992ndash2001

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

(c) 2002ndash2011

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)

(a) 1982ndash1991

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)0 420210105

(Miles)

Mediterranean Sea

AlgeriaTunisiaMorocco

Spain

AtlanticOcean

France

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

+++++

+ +

++

+ + +

+ +

+ + +

+

++

TazaAzzaba

Sefrou

Nador

Agadir

Casablanca

IfraneSafi

Marrakech

Ouarzazate

Gabes

Kairouan

Sfax

Tozeur

Bizerte

Gafsa

Tabarka

Jendouba Oran

AnnabaSkikdaChlef

BiskraEl Bayed Djelfa

ConstantineBatna

Kenitra

0 625 125 250

(Miles)

N

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Tunis CarthageTeacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Figure 3 The evolution of precipitation accumulations of extreme years (1982ndash2011)

conditions in nineteen stations which record morethan 50 dry and very dry years and only 7 whichcorrespond to wet and wetter conditions for a littleover a half of the duration of the period studied

(ii) The 1992ndash2001 period (map shown in Figure 3(b))shows a more drastic precipitation situation with 21stations that display rainfall accumulations from thedry to the very dry category of over 50 At the sametime one may note the low values of rainy and veryrainy years that reach 50 only at Skikda Biskra andTetouan and are below this level at the remainingstations

(iii) The analysis of the map shown in Figure 3(c) for the2002ndash2011 period of measurements clearly illustratesthe predominance of rainy and very rainy years at

most stations (25) Dry years reach 50 only at threestations (Marrakech Sefrou and Sfax) As for rainyyears they exceed 40 at all stations except Dar elBeıda Djelfa and Gafsa

The last map (Figure 4) displays the differences betweenthe last two decades (1992ndash2001 and 2002ndash2011) betweenprecipitation accumulations of rainy and very rainy yearsand dry and very dry years This graphical representationallows us to see the evolution of extreme rainfall for thetwo already discussed periods It reveals the importance ofpositive differences which indicate an increase of the formercategory in 83 of the stations A decrease is recorded onlyat three stations (Dar el Beıda Djelfa and Gafsa) whilefor Constantine Marrakech and Sfax stabilisation of valuesof 0 can be noted This map confirms a return of more

8 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Spain

Morocco Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Rainy and very rainy yearsDry and very dry years

Sahara

300 248

(Miles)

Figure 4 Differences between the last two decades (rainy and very rainy years and dry and very dry years)

favorable conditions throughout the entire territory as thedecrease of dry and very dry years is common at 29 of thestations (of which 14 show stabilisation of this category ofhumidity for the two decades)

(i) In Tunisia southern stations (Sfax and Tozeur) do notfollow this trend and are characterised by a rise inthe percentage of dry and very dry years of +20 and+10 respectively

(ii) In Algeria the Constantine Annaba and Skikda sta-tions located in the east of the country record a risingtrend of 10 for the first station and stabilisation ofvalues for the last two

In Morocco only one station (Marrakech) is not keepingupwith the return of rainy conditions as it records a rise in dryand very dry years of 10 On the Atlantic coast Casablancaand Safi are the other two stations in this vast country thatmanifest a stable trend of extreme years regarding this lastcategory

The processing of the trend of extreme years from 1970 to2013 (the percentage of stations which recorded a rainy andvery rainy year dry and very dry year or a normal one) forthe three countries confirms previous results

We can see in Figure 5(a) that since the 2000s thepercentage developed for dry and very dry years has beenclearly in constant decline in all three countries At the sametime rainy and very rainy years show a rising trend con-firmed starting with this last date (Figure 5(b)) Figure 5(c)concerning the class of normal years allows one to note thatthe percentage of stations after displaying a trend of decreasefrom 1995 to 2000 increases starting with this last date for

Algeria and Tunisia but decreases for Moroccan stationswhich confirms a steady return of thewet stage in this country(considering the previously developed arguments for theother two classes)

The analysis of precipitation evolution in centralMaghreb(Morocco Algeria and Tunisia) revealed a significant vari-ability typical of theMediterranean climate (which is strongerfor the last two countries) A first wet period marks the pre-cipitation series in Morocco (1970ndash1979) while in the othertwo countries from 1970 to 1986 no significant trend canbe noted This study also allowed us to highlight the durableand drastic nature of the climatic drought affecting Moroccoformore than two decades (1980ndash2001) Indeed precipitationdeficits in these countries are intense and may persist forlong periods of time (1980ndash1987 1991ndash1994 and 1998ndash2001)Climatic drought recorded in Algeria and Tunisia is shorter(1987ndash2002) and the cycles of years of deficits not only aresynchronised between the two countries but also are lessextended in time and they never exceed three consecutive dryyears (1987ndash1989 1993-1994 and 2000ndash2002)

Finally the rainfall return period is generalised in theMaghreb area under study Starting with 2002 in Moroccoand 2003 in Algeria and Tunisia values confirm a returntowards more rainy conditions despite the persistence ofextreme variability which is characterised by a brief returnof dry and very dry years (2006 and 2008)

This new period marks a break from past droughtyperiods despite the return once in a while of deficient years(eg in 2005 and 2006 forAlgeria andTunisia and 2006 2007and 2011 for Morocco)

Figure 6 developed starting from the mobile average ofall stations studied sums up the main 3 stages that have

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 9

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70(

)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(a)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(b)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(c)

Figure 5 Mobile frequency averages of stations that recorded dry and very dry years (a) rainy and very rainy years (b) and normal years (c)(1970ndash2011 for Morocco and 1970ndash2013 for Algeria and Tunisia)

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

MaghrebAlgeria

MoroccoTunisia

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

Figure 6 Reduced centered deviations of annual rainfall accumu-lations recorded in central Maghreb (mobile average calculated for35 weather stations in 1970ndash2011)

affected Maghreb pluviometry during the last 44 years Thefirst humid stage is noticeable from 1970 to 1979 followed bythe great climatic drought which lasts almost a half a centuryand finally the rainfall return which can be noted as of 2003

Thus south coast regions of westernMediterranean basinhave been subjected in the last years to strong climatedisturbances (these facts are not concordant with the resultsof climate patterns already cited for precipitations)The signsof change are extremely eloquent for the latest years in allthis region of North Africa as evidenced by the rainfallobserved between September 2008 and September 2009 InMorocco [42] The 2009-2010 rainfalls are also considered asexceptional and historic because they allowed for the fillingof dams at their maximum capacity (the filling rate of theAl Wahda Dam the largest of the kingdom located in theOuergha Wadi was 985) These rains ensured a recordcereal production of 80 million quintals (for 20092010)Thistrend was confirmed for 20122013 because with an averagepluviometry of 450mm the excess rainfall on a national scaleamounts to +20 as compared to a normal year [42] At thesame time this agricultural campaign ensured a new recordcereal production evaluated at 97 million quintals For 2014the filling of dams in operation reached nationwide a level of7238 while westward in areas that were affected by distur-bances an exceptional percentage of filling of 87was notedIn the Moroccan South observation data revealed a return

10 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

towards more humid conditions in the Tafilet oasis [43ndash46] and a reinstatement of several ldquoFoggarasrdquo (a traditionalhydraulic systemaffected by past climatic droughts) At timesthis rainfall return occurs in extreme episodes as was the caseof the recent floods (November 2014) which hit central andsouth-western Morocco (Agadir Guelmin and Marrakechareas) In the first area rains recorded very high intensities(250mm in 3 days from the 28th to the 30th of November2014) which represents almost 90 of the observed averageannual accumulation (280mm)

As regards Algeria the situation seems similar becausethe 20082009 agricultural campaign was described as highlysatisfactory and the cereal production recorded the followingyear (20092010) is a record of 612 million quintals thathas never been equalled The hydrological situation is assatisfactory as in Morocco judging by the Ministry ofAgriculture publications an unprecedented dam filling upwhich amounted to nearly 72 in 2010 and 81 in April2013 for the 65 dams in operation and to 804 in March2014 levels that had never been reached hitherto The effectsof climate changes are also manifested in this country byextreme events (a succession of hot episodes in 2015 with athreshold temperature of 50∘C exceeded at Ourgla on August2nd 2015 and of snowfall in the Assekrem mountains inHoggar massif located in southern Algeria a very rare factnever observed since 1945)

In Tunisia the situation is less obvious because three-quarters of the country have an arid and semiarid climateThis new trend is still noticeable through a rise in intenseprecipitation events and anet increase of the number of floods(Sfax city very well illustrates this the city was flooded twicein 1969 and 1982 and despite important improvement workscarried out in 1984 and the past years it was flooded again in2009 and 2013) [47]

4 Conclusions

To conclude we may say that the climate change observedduring the last years is characterised by a rainfall return butwith a far greater intensity In Algeria the severe disturbances(which lead to a pluviometry of over 30mm24 h) are onthe rise in the last years (data ONM) This again is notconcordant with the IPCC conclusions which point out adecrease of disturbances over the Mediterranean space Atthe same time the temperature trend continues to be rising(despite a slight cooling of values recorded during the lastyears)

The variability of short-term global climate is generallyassociated with coupling phases of oceanic and atmosphericphenomena including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) While El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability in theworld the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the climatemodel dominant in the North Atlantic region The lattercyclic oscillationwhose role is still under debate could explainthe variability of rainfall in much of the Mediterranean areaand support the hypothesis of a return of the rains markingthe end of years of drought in central Maghreb

Further analysis of the response of rainfall to the NorthAtlantic Oscillation shows that drought seems more in linewith the positive indicators of high intensity demonstratinggreater strengthening of the pressure in Azores and weaken-ing of the Icelandic Low pressure Under these conditionsthe depressions are pushed towards northern latitudes whichpromotes the establishment of a dry and mild weather onthe periphery of the Mediterranean basin and North Africanregions

When the signal fades or becomes negative the pressureassociated with the Azores high is lower compared to thenormal value and at the same time the Icelandic Lowis barely formed According to this mode of traffic thedepressions corridorwithdraws further south and thus affectsthe Mediterranean regions of the south shore which will bewetter

This return of rainfall over central Maghreb should itbe confirmed could mean the end of several decades ofrecurrent droughts and announce a durable return to ldquothenormalrdquo This assumption is supported by emphasizingthe impact of different world climate oscillations (NorthAtlantic Oscillation El Nino Southern Oscillation) for allthe continents and particularly for the African continent[27 48] Do these facts announce a new climate phasewhich marks a break from past drastic conditions Suchquestion is difficult to answer today but climate data andinformation concerning the hydraulics and agriculture ofMaghreb confirm a completely unique situation in this vastarea of North Africa

Faced with such great changes that today affect theMaghreb region and given the complexity of spatial andtemporal dimensions of the climatic signal a more thoroughresearch of causes and retroactions would allow for a betterunderstanding of the mechanisms behind this new trendThese investigations should integrate and quantify the roleof terrigenous aerosols in the dynamics of local climateand show the importance of sea surface temperatures inregulating rainfall

Additional Points

Check the following websites

WMO World Meteorological Organisation httpwwwwmointpagesindex enhtmlONM Office National de la Meteorologie (Algeria)httpwwwmeteodzDirection de la Meteorologie Nationale (Morocco)httpwwwmarocmeteomaIMN Institut de la Meteorologie Nationale (Tunisia)httpwwwmeteotndefaulthtmlNCDC National Climatic Data Center httpwwwncdcnoaagov

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 11

References

[1] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GIECChangements climatiques en 2013 Les elements scientifiquesresume a lrsquointention des decideurs service drsquoappui techniquedu groupe de travail I GTI 2013 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar5wg1WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINALFRENCHpdf

[2] NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis for Annual 2014 2015 httpwwwncdcnoaagovsotcglobal201413

[3] WMO (Wolrd Meteorological Organization) ldquoHotter drierwetter Face the futurerdquo Bulletin vol 65 no 1 p 64 2016

[4] Wolrd Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statement on theStatus of Global Climate in 2012 2013

[5] M H I Dore ldquoClimate change and changes in global precipi-tation patterns what do we knowrdquo Environment Internationalvol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[6] L V Alexander X Zhang T C Peterson et al ldquoGlobal observedchanges in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipita-tionrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 111 no5 Article ID D05109 pp 1ndash22 2006

[7] M New M Todd M Hulme and P Jones ldquoPrecipitation mea-surements and trends in the twentieth centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 21 no 15 pp 1899ndash1922 2001

[8] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 2007 The PhysicalSciences Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds chapter11 pp 847ndash940 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK2007 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg1ar4-wg1-chapter11pdf

[9] S Planton M Deque H Douville and B Spagnoli ldquoImpact durechauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologiquerdquo ComptesRendus Geoscience vol 337 no 1 pp 193ndash202 2005

[10] F Giorgi ldquoClimate change hot-spotsrdquoGeophysical Research Let-ters vol 33 no 8 2006

[11] F Giorgi and P Lionello ldquoClimate change projections for theMediterranean regionrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 63no 2-3 pp 90ndash104 2008

[12] Blue Plan Environment and development in MediterraneanClimate change in the Mediterranean no 9 pp 4 2008

[13] E Xoplakie Climate variability over the mediterranean [PhDthesis] University of Bern Bern Switzerland 2002

[14] P Lionello J Bhend A Buzzi et al ldquoCyclones in the Mediter-ranean region climatology and effects on the environmentrdquoinMediterranean Climate Variability P Lionello P Malanotte-Rizzoli and R Abd Boscolo Eds pp 324ndash372 ElsevierAmsterdam The Netherlands 2006

[15] F Jin A Kitoh and P Alpert ldquoWater cycle changes over theMediterranean a comparison study of a super-high-resolutionglobal model with CMIP3rdquo Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sci-ences vol 368 no 1931 pp 5137ndash5149 2010

[16] C C Raible B Ziv H Saaroni andMWild ldquoWinter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under futureclimate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5rdquo ClimateDynamics vol 35 no 2-3 pp 473ndash488 2010

[17] S O Krichak J S Breitgand R Samuels and P Alpert ldquoAdouble-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation

experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the EasternMediterranean regionrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatologyvol 103 no 1 pp 167ndash195 2011

[18] C M Philandras P T Nastos J Kapsomenakis K C DouvisG Tselioudis andC S Zerefos ldquoLong termprecipitation trendsand variability within the Mediterranean regionrdquo Natural Haz-ards and Earth System Sciences vol 11 no 12 pp 3235ndash32502011

[19] M Giannakopoulos M Bindi M Moriondo and T TinldquoClimate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a2∘C global temperature riserdquo A Report for WWF httpwwwfaoorgfileadminuser uploadrome2007docsClimate ChangeAdaptation Water Sector NENApdf

[20] G Tselioudis C Zerefos P Zanis P Repapis and I Kape-spmenakis ldquoFuture trends in Mediterranean precipitation andpossible connections with the phase pf the North AtlanticOscillationrdquo in Proceedings of the 9th Conference of MeteorologyClimatology andAtmospheric Physics pp 513ndash520ThessalonikiGreece May 2008

[21] M Dubrovsky M Hayes P Duce M Trnka M Svoboda andP Zara ldquoMulti-GCM projections of future drought and climatevariability indicators for the Mediterranean regionrdquo RegionalEnvironmental Change vol 14 no 5 pp 1907ndash1919 2014

[22] P Alpert T Ben-Gai A Baharad et al ldquoThe paradoxicalincrease of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofdecrease in total valuesrdquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 29no 11 pp 1ndash31 2002

[23] WMO (WolrdMeteorological Organization) ldquoStatement on thestatus of global climate in 2012rdquo Tech Rep 1108 2013

[24] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangements clima-tiques au Maghreb vers des conditions plus humides et pluschaudes sur le littoral algerien rdquo Physio-Geo vol 7 pp 307ndash3232013

[25] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumidesrdquo in dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et Ses Marges Actesdu XXVII Colloque International de Climatologie pp 399ndash405Dijon France 2014

[26] M G Donat T C Peterson M Brunet et al ldquoChanges inextreme temperature and precipitation in theArab region long-term trends and variability related to ENSO andNAOrdquo Interna-tional Journal of Climatology vol 34 no 3 pp 581ndash592 2014

[27] A Sebbar W Badri H Fougrach M Hsain and A SalouildquoEtude de la variabilite du regime pluviometrique au Marocseptentrional (1935ndash2004)rdquo Secheresse vol 22 no 3 pp 139ndash148 2011

[28] Z Nouaceur ldquoEvaluation des changements climatiques auMaghreb Etude du cas des regions du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du 23rd Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie lsquoRisques et Changements Clima-tiquesrsquo pp 463ndash468 Rennes France 2010

[29] M Amyay Z Nouaceur A Tribak Kh Okba and A TaousldquoCaracterisation des evenements pluviometriques extremesdans le Moyen Atlas marocain et ses margesrdquo in Actes duXXV eme Colloque International de Climatologie pp 75ndash80Grenoble France 2012

[30] K Khomsi G Mahe Y Tramblay M Sinan and M SnoussildquoTrends in rainfall and temperature extremes in MoroccordquoNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions vol 3no 2 pp 1175ndash1201 2015

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

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Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

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International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

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Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

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GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

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MineralogyInternational Journal of

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MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

6 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

the Moroccan territory The values are relatively highfor 1982 (minus112) 1983 (minus121) and 1986 (minus093) Forall Moroccan stations studied the proportion of dryand very dry years reaches almost 56 while rainyand very rainy years account for a little more than aquarter with 24 This long period characterised bya lack of humidity is followed by three years (1988ndash1990) during which positive regional indices and ahumid trend are recorded

(ii) From 1991 to 1994 rainfall accumulations becomenegative again

(iii) The regional index reaches during this final year oneof the lowest values of the series minus141

(iv) From 1995 to 1997 a short wet period marks theMoroccan pluviometry with a spectacular increase ofpluviometry (the regional index reaches +137 in 1996one of the highest values of the first three decades ofthis series)

(v) The stage covering the 1998ndash2001 period is markedby the return of drastic conditions A little more than60 of rainfall accumulations recorded at variousstations are considered as dry or very dry

(vi) The last period (2002ndash2011) of the precipitation seriesis considered as wet (60 of the years recorded apositive index) At the same time the percentageof rainy and very rainy years at all stations reaches5238 The last years of the series provide evidenceof change of trend for this decade Indeed from 2008to 2010 the percentage of rainy and very rainy yearsgoes from 7857 to 8571 and 9285

312 The Algeria Situation The MGCTI graphical matrix(Figure 2) shows for Algeria an organisation of rainfall accu-mulations into three characteristic periods

A first stage of strong variability in 1970ndash1986No genuineclimatic trend stands out in this period All stations understudy are characterised by an almost even distribution ofextreme classes of annual rainfall rainy and very rainy (40)dry and very dry (3950) and normal (205)The regionalindex is negative for more than 47 of the years as opposedto 5294 for positive values What is remarkable aboutthis period is undoubtedly a powerful interannual oscillationbetween dry year and wet year A sequence of three rainyyears (1971ndash1973) can be noted at the beginning of the serieswhile for the rest of the period trend inversions (dry yearrainy year) are for two successive years at most

A second stage starts in 1987 and finishes in 2002 It ismarked by a drying trend because 5560 of the years areconsidered to be dry and very dry while rainy and very rainyyears totalize no more than 2658 At the same time theregional index is negative for almost 68 of this period ascompared to 3125 for positive values The persistence ofdrought conditions never exceeds three consecutive yearsExtremenegative values for this dry stage are recorded in 1989(minus168) 2000 (minus187) and 2001 (minus149)

The last period of this precipitation series (2003ndash2013)in which 82 of the years have a positive regional index is

described as rainy On the whole this last stage distinguishesitself through an uninterrupted sequence of 7 years (2007ndash2013) with positive regional indices The percentage of rainyand very rainy years recorded at all stations (5572) is in netincrease while dry and very dry years with 2061 are in netdecrease as compared to the previous period

313 The Tunisia Situation Precipitation data recorded in1970ndash2013 in Tunisia (Figure 2) are characterised by a sig-nificant variability previously emphasized during the studyof Morocco and Algeria series The MGTCI graphical matrixshows once more three major characteristic periods

(i) The first stage starts in 1970 and finishes in 1986 andis marked by a lack of trend The regional index ispositive for almost 53 of years and negative forthe remaining 47 The percentages calculated at allstations for wet and very wet classes show that almost42 of years belong to this precipitation categoryThe dry and very dry classes represent just over 39of years This first period just like that analyzed forAlgeria is characterised by an important variation ofextreme years (two years namely 1981 with a negativeindex of minus179 and 1982 with a positive index of+177 show this particularity) The beginning of theperiod tends less to this oscillation (a sequence ofthree rainy years is noticeable from 1971 to 1973)

(ii) The second period is marked by a dry trend whichlasts 16 years on this territory The regional indexshows that almost 63 of years record a negativevalue The years belonging to the dry and very dryclass totalize almost 55 for all stations Rainy andvery rainy years only account for 2290 Successivestageswith the same trends exceed nomore than threeyears (1987ndash1989 and 2000ndash2003 for negative indicesand 1995ndash1997 for positive indices) Four years standout through negative indices which exceed minus1 1988(minus136) 1989 (minus103) 1993 (minus146) 2000 (minus168) and2001 (minus146)

(iii) The last period (2003ndash2013) is considered wet Theregional index is positive for a period of 8 years Thereturn of drought conditions is noted in 2007 in 2008(index aboveminus05) and in 2012 (index equal to minus125)Rainy and very rainy years are evaluated for this phaseat almost 48 while dry and very dry years totalize3131 These numbers thus indicate an increase ofyears in the first class of +25 as compared to theprevious period and a regress of the arid and very aridclass of minus2364

32 A Net Increase of Rainy and Very Rainy Years for theDecade 2002ndash2011 Figure 3 was completed by starting fromthe decennial averages of the categories of rainy and veryrainy dry and very dry years and normal averages calculatedfor the 1982ndash2011 interval confirming the previous argumentsfor the return of rainfall conditions in central Maghreb

(i) The analysis of the decade 1982ndash1991 (map shownin Figure 3(a)) shows the predominance of drought

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 7

(b) 1992ndash2001

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

(c) 2002ndash2011

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)

(a) 1982ndash1991

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)0 420210105

(Miles)

Mediterranean Sea

AlgeriaTunisiaMorocco

Spain

AtlanticOcean

France

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

+++++

+ +

++

+ + +

+ +

+ + +

+

++

TazaAzzaba

Sefrou

Nador

Agadir

Casablanca

IfraneSafi

Marrakech

Ouarzazate

Gabes

Kairouan

Sfax

Tozeur

Bizerte

Gafsa

Tabarka

Jendouba Oran

AnnabaSkikdaChlef

BiskraEl Bayed Djelfa

ConstantineBatna

Kenitra

0 625 125 250

(Miles)

N

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Tunis CarthageTeacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Figure 3 The evolution of precipitation accumulations of extreme years (1982ndash2011)

conditions in nineteen stations which record morethan 50 dry and very dry years and only 7 whichcorrespond to wet and wetter conditions for a littleover a half of the duration of the period studied

(ii) The 1992ndash2001 period (map shown in Figure 3(b))shows a more drastic precipitation situation with 21stations that display rainfall accumulations from thedry to the very dry category of over 50 At the sametime one may note the low values of rainy and veryrainy years that reach 50 only at Skikda Biskra andTetouan and are below this level at the remainingstations

(iii) The analysis of the map shown in Figure 3(c) for the2002ndash2011 period of measurements clearly illustratesthe predominance of rainy and very rainy years at

most stations (25) Dry years reach 50 only at threestations (Marrakech Sefrou and Sfax) As for rainyyears they exceed 40 at all stations except Dar elBeıda Djelfa and Gafsa

The last map (Figure 4) displays the differences betweenthe last two decades (1992ndash2001 and 2002ndash2011) betweenprecipitation accumulations of rainy and very rainy yearsand dry and very dry years This graphical representationallows us to see the evolution of extreme rainfall for thetwo already discussed periods It reveals the importance ofpositive differences which indicate an increase of the formercategory in 83 of the stations A decrease is recorded onlyat three stations (Dar el Beıda Djelfa and Gafsa) whilefor Constantine Marrakech and Sfax stabilisation of valuesof 0 can be noted This map confirms a return of more

8 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Spain

Morocco Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Rainy and very rainy yearsDry and very dry years

Sahara

300 248

(Miles)

Figure 4 Differences between the last two decades (rainy and very rainy years and dry and very dry years)

favorable conditions throughout the entire territory as thedecrease of dry and very dry years is common at 29 of thestations (of which 14 show stabilisation of this category ofhumidity for the two decades)

(i) In Tunisia southern stations (Sfax and Tozeur) do notfollow this trend and are characterised by a rise inthe percentage of dry and very dry years of +20 and+10 respectively

(ii) In Algeria the Constantine Annaba and Skikda sta-tions located in the east of the country record a risingtrend of 10 for the first station and stabilisation ofvalues for the last two

In Morocco only one station (Marrakech) is not keepingupwith the return of rainy conditions as it records a rise in dryand very dry years of 10 On the Atlantic coast Casablancaand Safi are the other two stations in this vast country thatmanifest a stable trend of extreme years regarding this lastcategory

The processing of the trend of extreme years from 1970 to2013 (the percentage of stations which recorded a rainy andvery rainy year dry and very dry year or a normal one) forthe three countries confirms previous results

We can see in Figure 5(a) that since the 2000s thepercentage developed for dry and very dry years has beenclearly in constant decline in all three countries At the sametime rainy and very rainy years show a rising trend con-firmed starting with this last date (Figure 5(b)) Figure 5(c)concerning the class of normal years allows one to note thatthe percentage of stations after displaying a trend of decreasefrom 1995 to 2000 increases starting with this last date for

Algeria and Tunisia but decreases for Moroccan stationswhich confirms a steady return of thewet stage in this country(considering the previously developed arguments for theother two classes)

The analysis of precipitation evolution in centralMaghreb(Morocco Algeria and Tunisia) revealed a significant vari-ability typical of theMediterranean climate (which is strongerfor the last two countries) A first wet period marks the pre-cipitation series in Morocco (1970ndash1979) while in the othertwo countries from 1970 to 1986 no significant trend canbe noted This study also allowed us to highlight the durableand drastic nature of the climatic drought affecting Moroccoformore than two decades (1980ndash2001) Indeed precipitationdeficits in these countries are intense and may persist forlong periods of time (1980ndash1987 1991ndash1994 and 1998ndash2001)Climatic drought recorded in Algeria and Tunisia is shorter(1987ndash2002) and the cycles of years of deficits not only aresynchronised between the two countries but also are lessextended in time and they never exceed three consecutive dryyears (1987ndash1989 1993-1994 and 2000ndash2002)

Finally the rainfall return period is generalised in theMaghreb area under study Starting with 2002 in Moroccoand 2003 in Algeria and Tunisia values confirm a returntowards more rainy conditions despite the persistence ofextreme variability which is characterised by a brief returnof dry and very dry years (2006 and 2008)

This new period marks a break from past droughtyperiods despite the return once in a while of deficient years(eg in 2005 and 2006 forAlgeria andTunisia and 2006 2007and 2011 for Morocco)

Figure 6 developed starting from the mobile average ofall stations studied sums up the main 3 stages that have

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 9

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70(

)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(a)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(b)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(c)

Figure 5 Mobile frequency averages of stations that recorded dry and very dry years (a) rainy and very rainy years (b) and normal years (c)(1970ndash2011 for Morocco and 1970ndash2013 for Algeria and Tunisia)

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

MaghrebAlgeria

MoroccoTunisia

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

Figure 6 Reduced centered deviations of annual rainfall accumu-lations recorded in central Maghreb (mobile average calculated for35 weather stations in 1970ndash2011)

affected Maghreb pluviometry during the last 44 years Thefirst humid stage is noticeable from 1970 to 1979 followed bythe great climatic drought which lasts almost a half a centuryand finally the rainfall return which can be noted as of 2003

Thus south coast regions of westernMediterranean basinhave been subjected in the last years to strong climatedisturbances (these facts are not concordant with the resultsof climate patterns already cited for precipitations)The signsof change are extremely eloquent for the latest years in allthis region of North Africa as evidenced by the rainfallobserved between September 2008 and September 2009 InMorocco [42] The 2009-2010 rainfalls are also considered asexceptional and historic because they allowed for the fillingof dams at their maximum capacity (the filling rate of theAl Wahda Dam the largest of the kingdom located in theOuergha Wadi was 985) These rains ensured a recordcereal production of 80 million quintals (for 20092010)Thistrend was confirmed for 20122013 because with an averagepluviometry of 450mm the excess rainfall on a national scaleamounts to +20 as compared to a normal year [42] At thesame time this agricultural campaign ensured a new recordcereal production evaluated at 97 million quintals For 2014the filling of dams in operation reached nationwide a level of7238 while westward in areas that were affected by distur-bances an exceptional percentage of filling of 87was notedIn the Moroccan South observation data revealed a return

10 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

towards more humid conditions in the Tafilet oasis [43ndash46] and a reinstatement of several ldquoFoggarasrdquo (a traditionalhydraulic systemaffected by past climatic droughts) At timesthis rainfall return occurs in extreme episodes as was the caseof the recent floods (November 2014) which hit central andsouth-western Morocco (Agadir Guelmin and Marrakechareas) In the first area rains recorded very high intensities(250mm in 3 days from the 28th to the 30th of November2014) which represents almost 90 of the observed averageannual accumulation (280mm)

As regards Algeria the situation seems similar becausethe 20082009 agricultural campaign was described as highlysatisfactory and the cereal production recorded the followingyear (20092010) is a record of 612 million quintals thathas never been equalled The hydrological situation is assatisfactory as in Morocco judging by the Ministry ofAgriculture publications an unprecedented dam filling upwhich amounted to nearly 72 in 2010 and 81 in April2013 for the 65 dams in operation and to 804 in March2014 levels that had never been reached hitherto The effectsof climate changes are also manifested in this country byextreme events (a succession of hot episodes in 2015 with athreshold temperature of 50∘C exceeded at Ourgla on August2nd 2015 and of snowfall in the Assekrem mountains inHoggar massif located in southern Algeria a very rare factnever observed since 1945)

In Tunisia the situation is less obvious because three-quarters of the country have an arid and semiarid climateThis new trend is still noticeable through a rise in intenseprecipitation events and anet increase of the number of floods(Sfax city very well illustrates this the city was flooded twicein 1969 and 1982 and despite important improvement workscarried out in 1984 and the past years it was flooded again in2009 and 2013) [47]

4 Conclusions

To conclude we may say that the climate change observedduring the last years is characterised by a rainfall return butwith a far greater intensity In Algeria the severe disturbances(which lead to a pluviometry of over 30mm24 h) are onthe rise in the last years (data ONM) This again is notconcordant with the IPCC conclusions which point out adecrease of disturbances over the Mediterranean space Atthe same time the temperature trend continues to be rising(despite a slight cooling of values recorded during the lastyears)

The variability of short-term global climate is generallyassociated with coupling phases of oceanic and atmosphericphenomena including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) While El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability in theworld the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the climatemodel dominant in the North Atlantic region The lattercyclic oscillationwhose role is still under debate could explainthe variability of rainfall in much of the Mediterranean areaand support the hypothesis of a return of the rains markingthe end of years of drought in central Maghreb

Further analysis of the response of rainfall to the NorthAtlantic Oscillation shows that drought seems more in linewith the positive indicators of high intensity demonstratinggreater strengthening of the pressure in Azores and weaken-ing of the Icelandic Low pressure Under these conditionsthe depressions are pushed towards northern latitudes whichpromotes the establishment of a dry and mild weather onthe periphery of the Mediterranean basin and North Africanregions

When the signal fades or becomes negative the pressureassociated with the Azores high is lower compared to thenormal value and at the same time the Icelandic Lowis barely formed According to this mode of traffic thedepressions corridorwithdraws further south and thus affectsthe Mediterranean regions of the south shore which will bewetter

This return of rainfall over central Maghreb should itbe confirmed could mean the end of several decades ofrecurrent droughts and announce a durable return to ldquothenormalrdquo This assumption is supported by emphasizingthe impact of different world climate oscillations (NorthAtlantic Oscillation El Nino Southern Oscillation) for allthe continents and particularly for the African continent[27 48] Do these facts announce a new climate phasewhich marks a break from past drastic conditions Suchquestion is difficult to answer today but climate data andinformation concerning the hydraulics and agriculture ofMaghreb confirm a completely unique situation in this vastarea of North Africa

Faced with such great changes that today affect theMaghreb region and given the complexity of spatial andtemporal dimensions of the climatic signal a more thoroughresearch of causes and retroactions would allow for a betterunderstanding of the mechanisms behind this new trendThese investigations should integrate and quantify the roleof terrigenous aerosols in the dynamics of local climateand show the importance of sea surface temperatures inregulating rainfall

Additional Points

Check the following websites

WMO World Meteorological Organisation httpwwwwmointpagesindex enhtmlONM Office National de la Meteorologie (Algeria)httpwwwmeteodzDirection de la Meteorologie Nationale (Morocco)httpwwwmarocmeteomaIMN Institut de la Meteorologie Nationale (Tunisia)httpwwwmeteotndefaulthtmlNCDC National Climatic Data Center httpwwwncdcnoaagov

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 11

References

[1] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GIECChangements climatiques en 2013 Les elements scientifiquesresume a lrsquointention des decideurs service drsquoappui techniquedu groupe de travail I GTI 2013 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar5wg1WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINALFRENCHpdf

[2] NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis for Annual 2014 2015 httpwwwncdcnoaagovsotcglobal201413

[3] WMO (Wolrd Meteorological Organization) ldquoHotter drierwetter Face the futurerdquo Bulletin vol 65 no 1 p 64 2016

[4] Wolrd Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statement on theStatus of Global Climate in 2012 2013

[5] M H I Dore ldquoClimate change and changes in global precipi-tation patterns what do we knowrdquo Environment Internationalvol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[6] L V Alexander X Zhang T C Peterson et al ldquoGlobal observedchanges in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipita-tionrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 111 no5 Article ID D05109 pp 1ndash22 2006

[7] M New M Todd M Hulme and P Jones ldquoPrecipitation mea-surements and trends in the twentieth centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 21 no 15 pp 1899ndash1922 2001

[8] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 2007 The PhysicalSciences Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds chapter11 pp 847ndash940 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK2007 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg1ar4-wg1-chapter11pdf

[9] S Planton M Deque H Douville and B Spagnoli ldquoImpact durechauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologiquerdquo ComptesRendus Geoscience vol 337 no 1 pp 193ndash202 2005

[10] F Giorgi ldquoClimate change hot-spotsrdquoGeophysical Research Let-ters vol 33 no 8 2006

[11] F Giorgi and P Lionello ldquoClimate change projections for theMediterranean regionrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 63no 2-3 pp 90ndash104 2008

[12] Blue Plan Environment and development in MediterraneanClimate change in the Mediterranean no 9 pp 4 2008

[13] E Xoplakie Climate variability over the mediterranean [PhDthesis] University of Bern Bern Switzerland 2002

[14] P Lionello J Bhend A Buzzi et al ldquoCyclones in the Mediter-ranean region climatology and effects on the environmentrdquoinMediterranean Climate Variability P Lionello P Malanotte-Rizzoli and R Abd Boscolo Eds pp 324ndash372 ElsevierAmsterdam The Netherlands 2006

[15] F Jin A Kitoh and P Alpert ldquoWater cycle changes over theMediterranean a comparison study of a super-high-resolutionglobal model with CMIP3rdquo Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sci-ences vol 368 no 1931 pp 5137ndash5149 2010

[16] C C Raible B Ziv H Saaroni andMWild ldquoWinter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under futureclimate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5rdquo ClimateDynamics vol 35 no 2-3 pp 473ndash488 2010

[17] S O Krichak J S Breitgand R Samuels and P Alpert ldquoAdouble-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation

experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the EasternMediterranean regionrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatologyvol 103 no 1 pp 167ndash195 2011

[18] C M Philandras P T Nastos J Kapsomenakis K C DouvisG Tselioudis andC S Zerefos ldquoLong termprecipitation trendsand variability within the Mediterranean regionrdquo Natural Haz-ards and Earth System Sciences vol 11 no 12 pp 3235ndash32502011

[19] M Giannakopoulos M Bindi M Moriondo and T TinldquoClimate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a2∘C global temperature riserdquo A Report for WWF httpwwwfaoorgfileadminuser uploadrome2007docsClimate ChangeAdaptation Water Sector NENApdf

[20] G Tselioudis C Zerefos P Zanis P Repapis and I Kape-spmenakis ldquoFuture trends in Mediterranean precipitation andpossible connections with the phase pf the North AtlanticOscillationrdquo in Proceedings of the 9th Conference of MeteorologyClimatology andAtmospheric Physics pp 513ndash520ThessalonikiGreece May 2008

[21] M Dubrovsky M Hayes P Duce M Trnka M Svoboda andP Zara ldquoMulti-GCM projections of future drought and climatevariability indicators for the Mediterranean regionrdquo RegionalEnvironmental Change vol 14 no 5 pp 1907ndash1919 2014

[22] P Alpert T Ben-Gai A Baharad et al ldquoThe paradoxicalincrease of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofdecrease in total valuesrdquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 29no 11 pp 1ndash31 2002

[23] WMO (WolrdMeteorological Organization) ldquoStatement on thestatus of global climate in 2012rdquo Tech Rep 1108 2013

[24] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangements clima-tiques au Maghreb vers des conditions plus humides et pluschaudes sur le littoral algerien rdquo Physio-Geo vol 7 pp 307ndash3232013

[25] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumidesrdquo in dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et Ses Marges Actesdu XXVII Colloque International de Climatologie pp 399ndash405Dijon France 2014

[26] M G Donat T C Peterson M Brunet et al ldquoChanges inextreme temperature and precipitation in theArab region long-term trends and variability related to ENSO andNAOrdquo Interna-tional Journal of Climatology vol 34 no 3 pp 581ndash592 2014

[27] A Sebbar W Badri H Fougrach M Hsain and A SalouildquoEtude de la variabilite du regime pluviometrique au Marocseptentrional (1935ndash2004)rdquo Secheresse vol 22 no 3 pp 139ndash148 2011

[28] Z Nouaceur ldquoEvaluation des changements climatiques auMaghreb Etude du cas des regions du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du 23rd Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie lsquoRisques et Changements Clima-tiquesrsquo pp 463ndash468 Rennes France 2010

[29] M Amyay Z Nouaceur A Tribak Kh Okba and A TaousldquoCaracterisation des evenements pluviometriques extremesdans le Moyen Atlas marocain et ses margesrdquo in Actes duXXV eme Colloque International de Climatologie pp 75ndash80Grenoble France 2012

[30] K Khomsi G Mahe Y Tramblay M Sinan and M SnoussildquoTrends in rainfall and temperature extremes in MoroccordquoNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions vol 3no 2 pp 1175ndash1201 2015

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

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Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

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Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

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OceanographyInternational Journal of

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Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

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GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

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MineralogyInternational Journal of

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Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 7

(b) 1992ndash2001

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

(c) 2002ndash2011

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)

(a) 1982ndash1991

Mediterranean Sea

Algeria

N

Spain

TunisiaMorocco

0 420210105

(Miles)0 420210105

(Miles)

Mediterranean Sea

AlgeriaTunisiaMorocco

Spain

AtlanticOcean

France

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

10∘09984000998400998400O 5

∘09984000998400998400O 0

∘09984000998400998400

5∘09984000998400998400E 10

∘09984000998400998400E

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

45∘09984000998400998400N

40∘09984000998400998400N

35∘09984000998400998400N

30∘09984000998400998400N

+++++

+ +

++

+ + +

+ +

+ + +

+

++

TazaAzzaba

Sefrou

Nador

Agadir

Casablanca

IfraneSafi

Marrakech

Ouarzazate

Gabes

Kairouan

Sfax

Tozeur

Bizerte

Gafsa

Tabarka

Jendouba Oran

AnnabaSkikdaChlef

BiskraEl Bayed Djelfa

ConstantineBatna

Kenitra

0 625 125 250

(Miles)

N

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Rainy and very rainy yearsNormal yearDry and very dry years

Tunis CarthageTeacutetouan

Feacutes

Mekneacutes

Dar El Beiumlda Beacutejaiumla

Teacutebessa

Figure 3 The evolution of precipitation accumulations of extreme years (1982ndash2011)

conditions in nineteen stations which record morethan 50 dry and very dry years and only 7 whichcorrespond to wet and wetter conditions for a littleover a half of the duration of the period studied

(ii) The 1992ndash2001 period (map shown in Figure 3(b))shows a more drastic precipitation situation with 21stations that display rainfall accumulations from thedry to the very dry category of over 50 At the sametime one may note the low values of rainy and veryrainy years that reach 50 only at Skikda Biskra andTetouan and are below this level at the remainingstations

(iii) The analysis of the map shown in Figure 3(c) for the2002ndash2011 period of measurements clearly illustratesthe predominance of rainy and very rainy years at

most stations (25) Dry years reach 50 only at threestations (Marrakech Sefrou and Sfax) As for rainyyears they exceed 40 at all stations except Dar elBeıda Djelfa and Gafsa

The last map (Figure 4) displays the differences betweenthe last two decades (1992ndash2001 and 2002ndash2011) betweenprecipitation accumulations of rainy and very rainy yearsand dry and very dry years This graphical representationallows us to see the evolution of extreme rainfall for thetwo already discussed periods It reveals the importance ofpositive differences which indicate an increase of the formercategory in 83 of the stations A decrease is recorded onlyat three stations (Dar el Beıda Djelfa and Gafsa) whilefor Constantine Marrakech and Sfax stabilisation of valuesof 0 can be noted This map confirms a return of more

8 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Spain

Morocco Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Rainy and very rainy yearsDry and very dry years

Sahara

300 248

(Miles)

Figure 4 Differences between the last two decades (rainy and very rainy years and dry and very dry years)

favorable conditions throughout the entire territory as thedecrease of dry and very dry years is common at 29 of thestations (of which 14 show stabilisation of this category ofhumidity for the two decades)

(i) In Tunisia southern stations (Sfax and Tozeur) do notfollow this trend and are characterised by a rise inthe percentage of dry and very dry years of +20 and+10 respectively

(ii) In Algeria the Constantine Annaba and Skikda sta-tions located in the east of the country record a risingtrend of 10 for the first station and stabilisation ofvalues for the last two

In Morocco only one station (Marrakech) is not keepingupwith the return of rainy conditions as it records a rise in dryand very dry years of 10 On the Atlantic coast Casablancaand Safi are the other two stations in this vast country thatmanifest a stable trend of extreme years regarding this lastcategory

The processing of the trend of extreme years from 1970 to2013 (the percentage of stations which recorded a rainy andvery rainy year dry and very dry year or a normal one) forthe three countries confirms previous results

We can see in Figure 5(a) that since the 2000s thepercentage developed for dry and very dry years has beenclearly in constant decline in all three countries At the sametime rainy and very rainy years show a rising trend con-firmed starting with this last date (Figure 5(b)) Figure 5(c)concerning the class of normal years allows one to note thatthe percentage of stations after displaying a trend of decreasefrom 1995 to 2000 increases starting with this last date for

Algeria and Tunisia but decreases for Moroccan stationswhich confirms a steady return of thewet stage in this country(considering the previously developed arguments for theother two classes)

The analysis of precipitation evolution in centralMaghreb(Morocco Algeria and Tunisia) revealed a significant vari-ability typical of theMediterranean climate (which is strongerfor the last two countries) A first wet period marks the pre-cipitation series in Morocco (1970ndash1979) while in the othertwo countries from 1970 to 1986 no significant trend canbe noted This study also allowed us to highlight the durableand drastic nature of the climatic drought affecting Moroccoformore than two decades (1980ndash2001) Indeed precipitationdeficits in these countries are intense and may persist forlong periods of time (1980ndash1987 1991ndash1994 and 1998ndash2001)Climatic drought recorded in Algeria and Tunisia is shorter(1987ndash2002) and the cycles of years of deficits not only aresynchronised between the two countries but also are lessextended in time and they never exceed three consecutive dryyears (1987ndash1989 1993-1994 and 2000ndash2002)

Finally the rainfall return period is generalised in theMaghreb area under study Starting with 2002 in Moroccoand 2003 in Algeria and Tunisia values confirm a returntowards more rainy conditions despite the persistence ofextreme variability which is characterised by a brief returnof dry and very dry years (2006 and 2008)

This new period marks a break from past droughtyperiods despite the return once in a while of deficient years(eg in 2005 and 2006 forAlgeria andTunisia and 2006 2007and 2011 for Morocco)

Figure 6 developed starting from the mobile average ofall stations studied sums up the main 3 stages that have

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 9

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70(

)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(a)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(b)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(c)

Figure 5 Mobile frequency averages of stations that recorded dry and very dry years (a) rainy and very rainy years (b) and normal years (c)(1970ndash2011 for Morocco and 1970ndash2013 for Algeria and Tunisia)

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

MaghrebAlgeria

MoroccoTunisia

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

Figure 6 Reduced centered deviations of annual rainfall accumu-lations recorded in central Maghreb (mobile average calculated for35 weather stations in 1970ndash2011)

affected Maghreb pluviometry during the last 44 years Thefirst humid stage is noticeable from 1970 to 1979 followed bythe great climatic drought which lasts almost a half a centuryand finally the rainfall return which can be noted as of 2003

Thus south coast regions of westernMediterranean basinhave been subjected in the last years to strong climatedisturbances (these facts are not concordant with the resultsof climate patterns already cited for precipitations)The signsof change are extremely eloquent for the latest years in allthis region of North Africa as evidenced by the rainfallobserved between September 2008 and September 2009 InMorocco [42] The 2009-2010 rainfalls are also considered asexceptional and historic because they allowed for the fillingof dams at their maximum capacity (the filling rate of theAl Wahda Dam the largest of the kingdom located in theOuergha Wadi was 985) These rains ensured a recordcereal production of 80 million quintals (for 20092010)Thistrend was confirmed for 20122013 because with an averagepluviometry of 450mm the excess rainfall on a national scaleamounts to +20 as compared to a normal year [42] At thesame time this agricultural campaign ensured a new recordcereal production evaluated at 97 million quintals For 2014the filling of dams in operation reached nationwide a level of7238 while westward in areas that were affected by distur-bances an exceptional percentage of filling of 87was notedIn the Moroccan South observation data revealed a return

10 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

towards more humid conditions in the Tafilet oasis [43ndash46] and a reinstatement of several ldquoFoggarasrdquo (a traditionalhydraulic systemaffected by past climatic droughts) At timesthis rainfall return occurs in extreme episodes as was the caseof the recent floods (November 2014) which hit central andsouth-western Morocco (Agadir Guelmin and Marrakechareas) In the first area rains recorded very high intensities(250mm in 3 days from the 28th to the 30th of November2014) which represents almost 90 of the observed averageannual accumulation (280mm)

As regards Algeria the situation seems similar becausethe 20082009 agricultural campaign was described as highlysatisfactory and the cereal production recorded the followingyear (20092010) is a record of 612 million quintals thathas never been equalled The hydrological situation is assatisfactory as in Morocco judging by the Ministry ofAgriculture publications an unprecedented dam filling upwhich amounted to nearly 72 in 2010 and 81 in April2013 for the 65 dams in operation and to 804 in March2014 levels that had never been reached hitherto The effectsof climate changes are also manifested in this country byextreme events (a succession of hot episodes in 2015 with athreshold temperature of 50∘C exceeded at Ourgla on August2nd 2015 and of snowfall in the Assekrem mountains inHoggar massif located in southern Algeria a very rare factnever observed since 1945)

In Tunisia the situation is less obvious because three-quarters of the country have an arid and semiarid climateThis new trend is still noticeable through a rise in intenseprecipitation events and anet increase of the number of floods(Sfax city very well illustrates this the city was flooded twicein 1969 and 1982 and despite important improvement workscarried out in 1984 and the past years it was flooded again in2009 and 2013) [47]

4 Conclusions

To conclude we may say that the climate change observedduring the last years is characterised by a rainfall return butwith a far greater intensity In Algeria the severe disturbances(which lead to a pluviometry of over 30mm24 h) are onthe rise in the last years (data ONM) This again is notconcordant with the IPCC conclusions which point out adecrease of disturbances over the Mediterranean space Atthe same time the temperature trend continues to be rising(despite a slight cooling of values recorded during the lastyears)

The variability of short-term global climate is generallyassociated with coupling phases of oceanic and atmosphericphenomena including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) While El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability in theworld the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the climatemodel dominant in the North Atlantic region The lattercyclic oscillationwhose role is still under debate could explainthe variability of rainfall in much of the Mediterranean areaand support the hypothesis of a return of the rains markingthe end of years of drought in central Maghreb

Further analysis of the response of rainfall to the NorthAtlantic Oscillation shows that drought seems more in linewith the positive indicators of high intensity demonstratinggreater strengthening of the pressure in Azores and weaken-ing of the Icelandic Low pressure Under these conditionsthe depressions are pushed towards northern latitudes whichpromotes the establishment of a dry and mild weather onthe periphery of the Mediterranean basin and North Africanregions

When the signal fades or becomes negative the pressureassociated with the Azores high is lower compared to thenormal value and at the same time the Icelandic Lowis barely formed According to this mode of traffic thedepressions corridorwithdraws further south and thus affectsthe Mediterranean regions of the south shore which will bewetter

This return of rainfall over central Maghreb should itbe confirmed could mean the end of several decades ofrecurrent droughts and announce a durable return to ldquothenormalrdquo This assumption is supported by emphasizingthe impact of different world climate oscillations (NorthAtlantic Oscillation El Nino Southern Oscillation) for allthe continents and particularly for the African continent[27 48] Do these facts announce a new climate phasewhich marks a break from past drastic conditions Suchquestion is difficult to answer today but climate data andinformation concerning the hydraulics and agriculture ofMaghreb confirm a completely unique situation in this vastarea of North Africa

Faced with such great changes that today affect theMaghreb region and given the complexity of spatial andtemporal dimensions of the climatic signal a more thoroughresearch of causes and retroactions would allow for a betterunderstanding of the mechanisms behind this new trendThese investigations should integrate and quantify the roleof terrigenous aerosols in the dynamics of local climateand show the importance of sea surface temperatures inregulating rainfall

Additional Points

Check the following websites

WMO World Meteorological Organisation httpwwwwmointpagesindex enhtmlONM Office National de la Meteorologie (Algeria)httpwwwmeteodzDirection de la Meteorologie Nationale (Morocco)httpwwwmarocmeteomaIMN Institut de la Meteorologie Nationale (Tunisia)httpwwwmeteotndefaulthtmlNCDC National Climatic Data Center httpwwwncdcnoaagov

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 11

References

[1] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GIECChangements climatiques en 2013 Les elements scientifiquesresume a lrsquointention des decideurs service drsquoappui techniquedu groupe de travail I GTI 2013 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar5wg1WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINALFRENCHpdf

[2] NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis for Annual 2014 2015 httpwwwncdcnoaagovsotcglobal201413

[3] WMO (Wolrd Meteorological Organization) ldquoHotter drierwetter Face the futurerdquo Bulletin vol 65 no 1 p 64 2016

[4] Wolrd Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statement on theStatus of Global Climate in 2012 2013

[5] M H I Dore ldquoClimate change and changes in global precipi-tation patterns what do we knowrdquo Environment Internationalvol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[6] L V Alexander X Zhang T C Peterson et al ldquoGlobal observedchanges in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipita-tionrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 111 no5 Article ID D05109 pp 1ndash22 2006

[7] M New M Todd M Hulme and P Jones ldquoPrecipitation mea-surements and trends in the twentieth centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 21 no 15 pp 1899ndash1922 2001

[8] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 2007 The PhysicalSciences Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds chapter11 pp 847ndash940 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK2007 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg1ar4-wg1-chapter11pdf

[9] S Planton M Deque H Douville and B Spagnoli ldquoImpact durechauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologiquerdquo ComptesRendus Geoscience vol 337 no 1 pp 193ndash202 2005

[10] F Giorgi ldquoClimate change hot-spotsrdquoGeophysical Research Let-ters vol 33 no 8 2006

[11] F Giorgi and P Lionello ldquoClimate change projections for theMediterranean regionrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 63no 2-3 pp 90ndash104 2008

[12] Blue Plan Environment and development in MediterraneanClimate change in the Mediterranean no 9 pp 4 2008

[13] E Xoplakie Climate variability over the mediterranean [PhDthesis] University of Bern Bern Switzerland 2002

[14] P Lionello J Bhend A Buzzi et al ldquoCyclones in the Mediter-ranean region climatology and effects on the environmentrdquoinMediterranean Climate Variability P Lionello P Malanotte-Rizzoli and R Abd Boscolo Eds pp 324ndash372 ElsevierAmsterdam The Netherlands 2006

[15] F Jin A Kitoh and P Alpert ldquoWater cycle changes over theMediterranean a comparison study of a super-high-resolutionglobal model with CMIP3rdquo Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sci-ences vol 368 no 1931 pp 5137ndash5149 2010

[16] C C Raible B Ziv H Saaroni andMWild ldquoWinter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under futureclimate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5rdquo ClimateDynamics vol 35 no 2-3 pp 473ndash488 2010

[17] S O Krichak J S Breitgand R Samuels and P Alpert ldquoAdouble-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation

experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the EasternMediterranean regionrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatologyvol 103 no 1 pp 167ndash195 2011

[18] C M Philandras P T Nastos J Kapsomenakis K C DouvisG Tselioudis andC S Zerefos ldquoLong termprecipitation trendsand variability within the Mediterranean regionrdquo Natural Haz-ards and Earth System Sciences vol 11 no 12 pp 3235ndash32502011

[19] M Giannakopoulos M Bindi M Moriondo and T TinldquoClimate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a2∘C global temperature riserdquo A Report for WWF httpwwwfaoorgfileadminuser uploadrome2007docsClimate ChangeAdaptation Water Sector NENApdf

[20] G Tselioudis C Zerefos P Zanis P Repapis and I Kape-spmenakis ldquoFuture trends in Mediterranean precipitation andpossible connections with the phase pf the North AtlanticOscillationrdquo in Proceedings of the 9th Conference of MeteorologyClimatology andAtmospheric Physics pp 513ndash520ThessalonikiGreece May 2008

[21] M Dubrovsky M Hayes P Duce M Trnka M Svoboda andP Zara ldquoMulti-GCM projections of future drought and climatevariability indicators for the Mediterranean regionrdquo RegionalEnvironmental Change vol 14 no 5 pp 1907ndash1919 2014

[22] P Alpert T Ben-Gai A Baharad et al ldquoThe paradoxicalincrease of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofdecrease in total valuesrdquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 29no 11 pp 1ndash31 2002

[23] WMO (WolrdMeteorological Organization) ldquoStatement on thestatus of global climate in 2012rdquo Tech Rep 1108 2013

[24] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangements clima-tiques au Maghreb vers des conditions plus humides et pluschaudes sur le littoral algerien rdquo Physio-Geo vol 7 pp 307ndash3232013

[25] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumidesrdquo in dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et Ses Marges Actesdu XXVII Colloque International de Climatologie pp 399ndash405Dijon France 2014

[26] M G Donat T C Peterson M Brunet et al ldquoChanges inextreme temperature and precipitation in theArab region long-term trends and variability related to ENSO andNAOrdquo Interna-tional Journal of Climatology vol 34 no 3 pp 581ndash592 2014

[27] A Sebbar W Badri H Fougrach M Hsain and A SalouildquoEtude de la variabilite du regime pluviometrique au Marocseptentrional (1935ndash2004)rdquo Secheresse vol 22 no 3 pp 139ndash148 2011

[28] Z Nouaceur ldquoEvaluation des changements climatiques auMaghreb Etude du cas des regions du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du 23rd Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie lsquoRisques et Changements Clima-tiquesrsquo pp 463ndash468 Rennes France 2010

[29] M Amyay Z Nouaceur A Tribak Kh Okba and A TaousldquoCaracterisation des evenements pluviometriques extremesdans le Moyen Atlas marocain et ses margesrdquo in Actes duXXV eme Colloque International de Climatologie pp 75ndash80Grenoble France 2012

[30] K Khomsi G Mahe Y Tramblay M Sinan and M SnoussildquoTrends in rainfall and temperature extremes in MoroccordquoNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions vol 3no 2 pp 1175ndash1201 2015

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

8 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Spain

Morocco Algeria

Tunisia

Libya

Rainy and very rainy yearsDry and very dry years

Sahara

300 248

(Miles)

Figure 4 Differences between the last two decades (rainy and very rainy years and dry and very dry years)

favorable conditions throughout the entire territory as thedecrease of dry and very dry years is common at 29 of thestations (of which 14 show stabilisation of this category ofhumidity for the two decades)

(i) In Tunisia southern stations (Sfax and Tozeur) do notfollow this trend and are characterised by a rise inthe percentage of dry and very dry years of +20 and+10 respectively

(ii) In Algeria the Constantine Annaba and Skikda sta-tions located in the east of the country record a risingtrend of 10 for the first station and stabilisation ofvalues for the last two

In Morocco only one station (Marrakech) is not keepingupwith the return of rainy conditions as it records a rise in dryand very dry years of 10 On the Atlantic coast Casablancaand Safi are the other two stations in this vast country thatmanifest a stable trend of extreme years regarding this lastcategory

The processing of the trend of extreme years from 1970 to2013 (the percentage of stations which recorded a rainy andvery rainy year dry and very dry year or a normal one) forthe three countries confirms previous results

We can see in Figure 5(a) that since the 2000s thepercentage developed for dry and very dry years has beenclearly in constant decline in all three countries At the sametime rainy and very rainy years show a rising trend con-firmed starting with this last date (Figure 5(b)) Figure 5(c)concerning the class of normal years allows one to note thatthe percentage of stations after displaying a trend of decreasefrom 1995 to 2000 increases starting with this last date for

Algeria and Tunisia but decreases for Moroccan stationswhich confirms a steady return of thewet stage in this country(considering the previously developed arguments for theother two classes)

The analysis of precipitation evolution in centralMaghreb(Morocco Algeria and Tunisia) revealed a significant vari-ability typical of theMediterranean climate (which is strongerfor the last two countries) A first wet period marks the pre-cipitation series in Morocco (1970ndash1979) while in the othertwo countries from 1970 to 1986 no significant trend canbe noted This study also allowed us to highlight the durableand drastic nature of the climatic drought affecting Moroccoformore than two decades (1980ndash2001) Indeed precipitationdeficits in these countries are intense and may persist forlong periods of time (1980ndash1987 1991ndash1994 and 1998ndash2001)Climatic drought recorded in Algeria and Tunisia is shorter(1987ndash2002) and the cycles of years of deficits not only aresynchronised between the two countries but also are lessextended in time and they never exceed three consecutive dryyears (1987ndash1989 1993-1994 and 2000ndash2002)

Finally the rainfall return period is generalised in theMaghreb area under study Starting with 2002 in Moroccoand 2003 in Algeria and Tunisia values confirm a returntowards more rainy conditions despite the persistence ofextreme variability which is characterised by a brief returnof dry and very dry years (2006 and 2008)

This new period marks a break from past droughtyperiods despite the return once in a while of deficient years(eg in 2005 and 2006 forAlgeria andTunisia and 2006 2007and 2011 for Morocco)

Figure 6 developed starting from the mobile average ofall stations studied sums up the main 3 stages that have

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 9

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70(

)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(a)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(b)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(c)

Figure 5 Mobile frequency averages of stations that recorded dry and very dry years (a) rainy and very rainy years (b) and normal years (c)(1970ndash2011 for Morocco and 1970ndash2013 for Algeria and Tunisia)

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

MaghrebAlgeria

MoroccoTunisia

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

Figure 6 Reduced centered deviations of annual rainfall accumu-lations recorded in central Maghreb (mobile average calculated for35 weather stations in 1970ndash2011)

affected Maghreb pluviometry during the last 44 years Thefirst humid stage is noticeable from 1970 to 1979 followed bythe great climatic drought which lasts almost a half a centuryand finally the rainfall return which can be noted as of 2003

Thus south coast regions of westernMediterranean basinhave been subjected in the last years to strong climatedisturbances (these facts are not concordant with the resultsof climate patterns already cited for precipitations)The signsof change are extremely eloquent for the latest years in allthis region of North Africa as evidenced by the rainfallobserved between September 2008 and September 2009 InMorocco [42] The 2009-2010 rainfalls are also considered asexceptional and historic because they allowed for the fillingof dams at their maximum capacity (the filling rate of theAl Wahda Dam the largest of the kingdom located in theOuergha Wadi was 985) These rains ensured a recordcereal production of 80 million quintals (for 20092010)Thistrend was confirmed for 20122013 because with an averagepluviometry of 450mm the excess rainfall on a national scaleamounts to +20 as compared to a normal year [42] At thesame time this agricultural campaign ensured a new recordcereal production evaluated at 97 million quintals For 2014the filling of dams in operation reached nationwide a level of7238 while westward in areas that were affected by distur-bances an exceptional percentage of filling of 87was notedIn the Moroccan South observation data revealed a return

10 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

towards more humid conditions in the Tafilet oasis [43ndash46] and a reinstatement of several ldquoFoggarasrdquo (a traditionalhydraulic systemaffected by past climatic droughts) At timesthis rainfall return occurs in extreme episodes as was the caseof the recent floods (November 2014) which hit central andsouth-western Morocco (Agadir Guelmin and Marrakechareas) In the first area rains recorded very high intensities(250mm in 3 days from the 28th to the 30th of November2014) which represents almost 90 of the observed averageannual accumulation (280mm)

As regards Algeria the situation seems similar becausethe 20082009 agricultural campaign was described as highlysatisfactory and the cereal production recorded the followingyear (20092010) is a record of 612 million quintals thathas never been equalled The hydrological situation is assatisfactory as in Morocco judging by the Ministry ofAgriculture publications an unprecedented dam filling upwhich amounted to nearly 72 in 2010 and 81 in April2013 for the 65 dams in operation and to 804 in March2014 levels that had never been reached hitherto The effectsof climate changes are also manifested in this country byextreme events (a succession of hot episodes in 2015 with athreshold temperature of 50∘C exceeded at Ourgla on August2nd 2015 and of snowfall in the Assekrem mountains inHoggar massif located in southern Algeria a very rare factnever observed since 1945)

In Tunisia the situation is less obvious because three-quarters of the country have an arid and semiarid climateThis new trend is still noticeable through a rise in intenseprecipitation events and anet increase of the number of floods(Sfax city very well illustrates this the city was flooded twicein 1969 and 1982 and despite important improvement workscarried out in 1984 and the past years it was flooded again in2009 and 2013) [47]

4 Conclusions

To conclude we may say that the climate change observedduring the last years is characterised by a rainfall return butwith a far greater intensity In Algeria the severe disturbances(which lead to a pluviometry of over 30mm24 h) are onthe rise in the last years (data ONM) This again is notconcordant with the IPCC conclusions which point out adecrease of disturbances over the Mediterranean space Atthe same time the temperature trend continues to be rising(despite a slight cooling of values recorded during the lastyears)

The variability of short-term global climate is generallyassociated with coupling phases of oceanic and atmosphericphenomena including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) While El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability in theworld the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the climatemodel dominant in the North Atlantic region The lattercyclic oscillationwhose role is still under debate could explainthe variability of rainfall in much of the Mediterranean areaand support the hypothesis of a return of the rains markingthe end of years of drought in central Maghreb

Further analysis of the response of rainfall to the NorthAtlantic Oscillation shows that drought seems more in linewith the positive indicators of high intensity demonstratinggreater strengthening of the pressure in Azores and weaken-ing of the Icelandic Low pressure Under these conditionsthe depressions are pushed towards northern latitudes whichpromotes the establishment of a dry and mild weather onthe periphery of the Mediterranean basin and North Africanregions

When the signal fades or becomes negative the pressureassociated with the Azores high is lower compared to thenormal value and at the same time the Icelandic Lowis barely formed According to this mode of traffic thedepressions corridorwithdraws further south and thus affectsthe Mediterranean regions of the south shore which will bewetter

This return of rainfall over central Maghreb should itbe confirmed could mean the end of several decades ofrecurrent droughts and announce a durable return to ldquothenormalrdquo This assumption is supported by emphasizingthe impact of different world climate oscillations (NorthAtlantic Oscillation El Nino Southern Oscillation) for allthe continents and particularly for the African continent[27 48] Do these facts announce a new climate phasewhich marks a break from past drastic conditions Suchquestion is difficult to answer today but climate data andinformation concerning the hydraulics and agriculture ofMaghreb confirm a completely unique situation in this vastarea of North Africa

Faced with such great changes that today affect theMaghreb region and given the complexity of spatial andtemporal dimensions of the climatic signal a more thoroughresearch of causes and retroactions would allow for a betterunderstanding of the mechanisms behind this new trendThese investigations should integrate and quantify the roleof terrigenous aerosols in the dynamics of local climateand show the importance of sea surface temperatures inregulating rainfall

Additional Points

Check the following websites

WMO World Meteorological Organisation httpwwwwmointpagesindex enhtmlONM Office National de la Meteorologie (Algeria)httpwwwmeteodzDirection de la Meteorologie Nationale (Morocco)httpwwwmarocmeteomaIMN Institut de la Meteorologie Nationale (Tunisia)httpwwwmeteotndefaulthtmlNCDC National Climatic Data Center httpwwwncdcnoaagov

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 11

References

[1] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GIECChangements climatiques en 2013 Les elements scientifiquesresume a lrsquointention des decideurs service drsquoappui techniquedu groupe de travail I GTI 2013 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar5wg1WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINALFRENCHpdf

[2] NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis for Annual 2014 2015 httpwwwncdcnoaagovsotcglobal201413

[3] WMO (Wolrd Meteorological Organization) ldquoHotter drierwetter Face the futurerdquo Bulletin vol 65 no 1 p 64 2016

[4] Wolrd Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statement on theStatus of Global Climate in 2012 2013

[5] M H I Dore ldquoClimate change and changes in global precipi-tation patterns what do we knowrdquo Environment Internationalvol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[6] L V Alexander X Zhang T C Peterson et al ldquoGlobal observedchanges in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipita-tionrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 111 no5 Article ID D05109 pp 1ndash22 2006

[7] M New M Todd M Hulme and P Jones ldquoPrecipitation mea-surements and trends in the twentieth centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 21 no 15 pp 1899ndash1922 2001

[8] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 2007 The PhysicalSciences Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds chapter11 pp 847ndash940 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK2007 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg1ar4-wg1-chapter11pdf

[9] S Planton M Deque H Douville and B Spagnoli ldquoImpact durechauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologiquerdquo ComptesRendus Geoscience vol 337 no 1 pp 193ndash202 2005

[10] F Giorgi ldquoClimate change hot-spotsrdquoGeophysical Research Let-ters vol 33 no 8 2006

[11] F Giorgi and P Lionello ldquoClimate change projections for theMediterranean regionrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 63no 2-3 pp 90ndash104 2008

[12] Blue Plan Environment and development in MediterraneanClimate change in the Mediterranean no 9 pp 4 2008

[13] E Xoplakie Climate variability over the mediterranean [PhDthesis] University of Bern Bern Switzerland 2002

[14] P Lionello J Bhend A Buzzi et al ldquoCyclones in the Mediter-ranean region climatology and effects on the environmentrdquoinMediterranean Climate Variability P Lionello P Malanotte-Rizzoli and R Abd Boscolo Eds pp 324ndash372 ElsevierAmsterdam The Netherlands 2006

[15] F Jin A Kitoh and P Alpert ldquoWater cycle changes over theMediterranean a comparison study of a super-high-resolutionglobal model with CMIP3rdquo Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sci-ences vol 368 no 1931 pp 5137ndash5149 2010

[16] C C Raible B Ziv H Saaroni andMWild ldquoWinter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under futureclimate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5rdquo ClimateDynamics vol 35 no 2-3 pp 473ndash488 2010

[17] S O Krichak J S Breitgand R Samuels and P Alpert ldquoAdouble-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation

experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the EasternMediterranean regionrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatologyvol 103 no 1 pp 167ndash195 2011

[18] C M Philandras P T Nastos J Kapsomenakis K C DouvisG Tselioudis andC S Zerefos ldquoLong termprecipitation trendsand variability within the Mediterranean regionrdquo Natural Haz-ards and Earth System Sciences vol 11 no 12 pp 3235ndash32502011

[19] M Giannakopoulos M Bindi M Moriondo and T TinldquoClimate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a2∘C global temperature riserdquo A Report for WWF httpwwwfaoorgfileadminuser uploadrome2007docsClimate ChangeAdaptation Water Sector NENApdf

[20] G Tselioudis C Zerefos P Zanis P Repapis and I Kape-spmenakis ldquoFuture trends in Mediterranean precipitation andpossible connections with the phase pf the North AtlanticOscillationrdquo in Proceedings of the 9th Conference of MeteorologyClimatology andAtmospheric Physics pp 513ndash520ThessalonikiGreece May 2008

[21] M Dubrovsky M Hayes P Duce M Trnka M Svoboda andP Zara ldquoMulti-GCM projections of future drought and climatevariability indicators for the Mediterranean regionrdquo RegionalEnvironmental Change vol 14 no 5 pp 1907ndash1919 2014

[22] P Alpert T Ben-Gai A Baharad et al ldquoThe paradoxicalincrease of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofdecrease in total valuesrdquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 29no 11 pp 1ndash31 2002

[23] WMO (WolrdMeteorological Organization) ldquoStatement on thestatus of global climate in 2012rdquo Tech Rep 1108 2013

[24] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangements clima-tiques au Maghreb vers des conditions plus humides et pluschaudes sur le littoral algerien rdquo Physio-Geo vol 7 pp 307ndash3232013

[25] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumidesrdquo in dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et Ses Marges Actesdu XXVII Colloque International de Climatologie pp 399ndash405Dijon France 2014

[26] M G Donat T C Peterson M Brunet et al ldquoChanges inextreme temperature and precipitation in theArab region long-term trends and variability related to ENSO andNAOrdquo Interna-tional Journal of Climatology vol 34 no 3 pp 581ndash592 2014

[27] A Sebbar W Badri H Fougrach M Hsain and A SalouildquoEtude de la variabilite du regime pluviometrique au Marocseptentrional (1935ndash2004)rdquo Secheresse vol 22 no 3 pp 139ndash148 2011

[28] Z Nouaceur ldquoEvaluation des changements climatiques auMaghreb Etude du cas des regions du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du 23rd Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie lsquoRisques et Changements Clima-tiquesrsquo pp 463ndash468 Rennes France 2010

[29] M Amyay Z Nouaceur A Tribak Kh Okba and A TaousldquoCaracterisation des evenements pluviometriques extremesdans le Moyen Atlas marocain et ses margesrdquo in Actes duXXV eme Colloque International de Climatologie pp 75ndash80Grenoble France 2012

[30] K Khomsi G Mahe Y Tramblay M Sinan and M SnoussildquoTrends in rainfall and temperature extremes in MoroccordquoNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions vol 3no 2 pp 1175ndash1201 2015

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 9

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70(

)

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(a)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(b)

MoroccoTunisiaAlgeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

()

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

(c)

Figure 5 Mobile frequency averages of stations that recorded dry and very dry years (a) rainy and very rainy years (b) and normal years (c)(1970ndash2011 for Morocco and 1970ndash2013 for Algeria and Tunisia)

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

MaghrebAlgeria

MoroccoTunisia

minus1

minus05

0

05

1

Figure 6 Reduced centered deviations of annual rainfall accumu-lations recorded in central Maghreb (mobile average calculated for35 weather stations in 1970ndash2011)

affected Maghreb pluviometry during the last 44 years Thefirst humid stage is noticeable from 1970 to 1979 followed bythe great climatic drought which lasts almost a half a centuryand finally the rainfall return which can be noted as of 2003

Thus south coast regions of westernMediterranean basinhave been subjected in the last years to strong climatedisturbances (these facts are not concordant with the resultsof climate patterns already cited for precipitations)The signsof change are extremely eloquent for the latest years in allthis region of North Africa as evidenced by the rainfallobserved between September 2008 and September 2009 InMorocco [42] The 2009-2010 rainfalls are also considered asexceptional and historic because they allowed for the fillingof dams at their maximum capacity (the filling rate of theAl Wahda Dam the largest of the kingdom located in theOuergha Wadi was 985) These rains ensured a recordcereal production of 80 million quintals (for 20092010)Thistrend was confirmed for 20122013 because with an averagepluviometry of 450mm the excess rainfall on a national scaleamounts to +20 as compared to a normal year [42] At thesame time this agricultural campaign ensured a new recordcereal production evaluated at 97 million quintals For 2014the filling of dams in operation reached nationwide a level of7238 while westward in areas that were affected by distur-bances an exceptional percentage of filling of 87was notedIn the Moroccan South observation data revealed a return

10 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

towards more humid conditions in the Tafilet oasis [43ndash46] and a reinstatement of several ldquoFoggarasrdquo (a traditionalhydraulic systemaffected by past climatic droughts) At timesthis rainfall return occurs in extreme episodes as was the caseof the recent floods (November 2014) which hit central andsouth-western Morocco (Agadir Guelmin and Marrakechareas) In the first area rains recorded very high intensities(250mm in 3 days from the 28th to the 30th of November2014) which represents almost 90 of the observed averageannual accumulation (280mm)

As regards Algeria the situation seems similar becausethe 20082009 agricultural campaign was described as highlysatisfactory and the cereal production recorded the followingyear (20092010) is a record of 612 million quintals thathas never been equalled The hydrological situation is assatisfactory as in Morocco judging by the Ministry ofAgriculture publications an unprecedented dam filling upwhich amounted to nearly 72 in 2010 and 81 in April2013 for the 65 dams in operation and to 804 in March2014 levels that had never been reached hitherto The effectsof climate changes are also manifested in this country byextreme events (a succession of hot episodes in 2015 with athreshold temperature of 50∘C exceeded at Ourgla on August2nd 2015 and of snowfall in the Assekrem mountains inHoggar massif located in southern Algeria a very rare factnever observed since 1945)

In Tunisia the situation is less obvious because three-quarters of the country have an arid and semiarid climateThis new trend is still noticeable through a rise in intenseprecipitation events and anet increase of the number of floods(Sfax city very well illustrates this the city was flooded twicein 1969 and 1982 and despite important improvement workscarried out in 1984 and the past years it was flooded again in2009 and 2013) [47]

4 Conclusions

To conclude we may say that the climate change observedduring the last years is characterised by a rainfall return butwith a far greater intensity In Algeria the severe disturbances(which lead to a pluviometry of over 30mm24 h) are onthe rise in the last years (data ONM) This again is notconcordant with the IPCC conclusions which point out adecrease of disturbances over the Mediterranean space Atthe same time the temperature trend continues to be rising(despite a slight cooling of values recorded during the lastyears)

The variability of short-term global climate is generallyassociated with coupling phases of oceanic and atmosphericphenomena including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) While El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability in theworld the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the climatemodel dominant in the North Atlantic region The lattercyclic oscillationwhose role is still under debate could explainthe variability of rainfall in much of the Mediterranean areaand support the hypothesis of a return of the rains markingthe end of years of drought in central Maghreb

Further analysis of the response of rainfall to the NorthAtlantic Oscillation shows that drought seems more in linewith the positive indicators of high intensity demonstratinggreater strengthening of the pressure in Azores and weaken-ing of the Icelandic Low pressure Under these conditionsthe depressions are pushed towards northern latitudes whichpromotes the establishment of a dry and mild weather onthe periphery of the Mediterranean basin and North Africanregions

When the signal fades or becomes negative the pressureassociated with the Azores high is lower compared to thenormal value and at the same time the Icelandic Lowis barely formed According to this mode of traffic thedepressions corridorwithdraws further south and thus affectsthe Mediterranean regions of the south shore which will bewetter

This return of rainfall over central Maghreb should itbe confirmed could mean the end of several decades ofrecurrent droughts and announce a durable return to ldquothenormalrdquo This assumption is supported by emphasizingthe impact of different world climate oscillations (NorthAtlantic Oscillation El Nino Southern Oscillation) for allthe continents and particularly for the African continent[27 48] Do these facts announce a new climate phasewhich marks a break from past drastic conditions Suchquestion is difficult to answer today but climate data andinformation concerning the hydraulics and agriculture ofMaghreb confirm a completely unique situation in this vastarea of North Africa

Faced with such great changes that today affect theMaghreb region and given the complexity of spatial andtemporal dimensions of the climatic signal a more thoroughresearch of causes and retroactions would allow for a betterunderstanding of the mechanisms behind this new trendThese investigations should integrate and quantify the roleof terrigenous aerosols in the dynamics of local climateand show the importance of sea surface temperatures inregulating rainfall

Additional Points

Check the following websites

WMO World Meteorological Organisation httpwwwwmointpagesindex enhtmlONM Office National de la Meteorologie (Algeria)httpwwwmeteodzDirection de la Meteorologie Nationale (Morocco)httpwwwmarocmeteomaIMN Institut de la Meteorologie Nationale (Tunisia)httpwwwmeteotndefaulthtmlNCDC National Climatic Data Center httpwwwncdcnoaagov

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 11

References

[1] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GIECChangements climatiques en 2013 Les elements scientifiquesresume a lrsquointention des decideurs service drsquoappui techniquedu groupe de travail I GTI 2013 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar5wg1WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINALFRENCHpdf

[2] NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis for Annual 2014 2015 httpwwwncdcnoaagovsotcglobal201413

[3] WMO (Wolrd Meteorological Organization) ldquoHotter drierwetter Face the futurerdquo Bulletin vol 65 no 1 p 64 2016

[4] Wolrd Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statement on theStatus of Global Climate in 2012 2013

[5] M H I Dore ldquoClimate change and changes in global precipi-tation patterns what do we knowrdquo Environment Internationalvol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[6] L V Alexander X Zhang T C Peterson et al ldquoGlobal observedchanges in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipita-tionrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 111 no5 Article ID D05109 pp 1ndash22 2006

[7] M New M Todd M Hulme and P Jones ldquoPrecipitation mea-surements and trends in the twentieth centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 21 no 15 pp 1899ndash1922 2001

[8] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 2007 The PhysicalSciences Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds chapter11 pp 847ndash940 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK2007 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg1ar4-wg1-chapter11pdf

[9] S Planton M Deque H Douville and B Spagnoli ldquoImpact durechauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologiquerdquo ComptesRendus Geoscience vol 337 no 1 pp 193ndash202 2005

[10] F Giorgi ldquoClimate change hot-spotsrdquoGeophysical Research Let-ters vol 33 no 8 2006

[11] F Giorgi and P Lionello ldquoClimate change projections for theMediterranean regionrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 63no 2-3 pp 90ndash104 2008

[12] Blue Plan Environment and development in MediterraneanClimate change in the Mediterranean no 9 pp 4 2008

[13] E Xoplakie Climate variability over the mediterranean [PhDthesis] University of Bern Bern Switzerland 2002

[14] P Lionello J Bhend A Buzzi et al ldquoCyclones in the Mediter-ranean region climatology and effects on the environmentrdquoinMediterranean Climate Variability P Lionello P Malanotte-Rizzoli and R Abd Boscolo Eds pp 324ndash372 ElsevierAmsterdam The Netherlands 2006

[15] F Jin A Kitoh and P Alpert ldquoWater cycle changes over theMediterranean a comparison study of a super-high-resolutionglobal model with CMIP3rdquo Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sci-ences vol 368 no 1931 pp 5137ndash5149 2010

[16] C C Raible B Ziv H Saaroni andMWild ldquoWinter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under futureclimate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5rdquo ClimateDynamics vol 35 no 2-3 pp 473ndash488 2010

[17] S O Krichak J S Breitgand R Samuels and P Alpert ldquoAdouble-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation

experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the EasternMediterranean regionrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatologyvol 103 no 1 pp 167ndash195 2011

[18] C M Philandras P T Nastos J Kapsomenakis K C DouvisG Tselioudis andC S Zerefos ldquoLong termprecipitation trendsand variability within the Mediterranean regionrdquo Natural Haz-ards and Earth System Sciences vol 11 no 12 pp 3235ndash32502011

[19] M Giannakopoulos M Bindi M Moriondo and T TinldquoClimate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a2∘C global temperature riserdquo A Report for WWF httpwwwfaoorgfileadminuser uploadrome2007docsClimate ChangeAdaptation Water Sector NENApdf

[20] G Tselioudis C Zerefos P Zanis P Repapis and I Kape-spmenakis ldquoFuture trends in Mediterranean precipitation andpossible connections with the phase pf the North AtlanticOscillationrdquo in Proceedings of the 9th Conference of MeteorologyClimatology andAtmospheric Physics pp 513ndash520ThessalonikiGreece May 2008

[21] M Dubrovsky M Hayes P Duce M Trnka M Svoboda andP Zara ldquoMulti-GCM projections of future drought and climatevariability indicators for the Mediterranean regionrdquo RegionalEnvironmental Change vol 14 no 5 pp 1907ndash1919 2014

[22] P Alpert T Ben-Gai A Baharad et al ldquoThe paradoxicalincrease of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofdecrease in total valuesrdquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 29no 11 pp 1ndash31 2002

[23] WMO (WolrdMeteorological Organization) ldquoStatement on thestatus of global climate in 2012rdquo Tech Rep 1108 2013

[24] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangements clima-tiques au Maghreb vers des conditions plus humides et pluschaudes sur le littoral algerien rdquo Physio-Geo vol 7 pp 307ndash3232013

[25] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumidesrdquo in dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et Ses Marges Actesdu XXVII Colloque International de Climatologie pp 399ndash405Dijon France 2014

[26] M G Donat T C Peterson M Brunet et al ldquoChanges inextreme temperature and precipitation in theArab region long-term trends and variability related to ENSO andNAOrdquo Interna-tional Journal of Climatology vol 34 no 3 pp 581ndash592 2014

[27] A Sebbar W Badri H Fougrach M Hsain and A SalouildquoEtude de la variabilite du regime pluviometrique au Marocseptentrional (1935ndash2004)rdquo Secheresse vol 22 no 3 pp 139ndash148 2011

[28] Z Nouaceur ldquoEvaluation des changements climatiques auMaghreb Etude du cas des regions du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du 23rd Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie lsquoRisques et Changements Clima-tiquesrsquo pp 463ndash468 Rennes France 2010

[29] M Amyay Z Nouaceur A Tribak Kh Okba and A TaousldquoCaracterisation des evenements pluviometriques extremesdans le Moyen Atlas marocain et ses margesrdquo in Actes duXXV eme Colloque International de Climatologie pp 75ndash80Grenoble France 2012

[30] K Khomsi G Mahe Y Tramblay M Sinan and M SnoussildquoTrends in rainfall and temperature extremes in MoroccordquoNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions vol 3no 2 pp 1175ndash1201 2015

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

10 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

towards more humid conditions in the Tafilet oasis [43ndash46] and a reinstatement of several ldquoFoggarasrdquo (a traditionalhydraulic systemaffected by past climatic droughts) At timesthis rainfall return occurs in extreme episodes as was the caseof the recent floods (November 2014) which hit central andsouth-western Morocco (Agadir Guelmin and Marrakechareas) In the first area rains recorded very high intensities(250mm in 3 days from the 28th to the 30th of November2014) which represents almost 90 of the observed averageannual accumulation (280mm)

As regards Algeria the situation seems similar becausethe 20082009 agricultural campaign was described as highlysatisfactory and the cereal production recorded the followingyear (20092010) is a record of 612 million quintals thathas never been equalled The hydrological situation is assatisfactory as in Morocco judging by the Ministry ofAgriculture publications an unprecedented dam filling upwhich amounted to nearly 72 in 2010 and 81 in April2013 for the 65 dams in operation and to 804 in March2014 levels that had never been reached hitherto The effectsof climate changes are also manifested in this country byextreme events (a succession of hot episodes in 2015 with athreshold temperature of 50∘C exceeded at Ourgla on August2nd 2015 and of snowfall in the Assekrem mountains inHoggar massif located in southern Algeria a very rare factnever observed since 1945)

In Tunisia the situation is less obvious because three-quarters of the country have an arid and semiarid climateThis new trend is still noticeable through a rise in intenseprecipitation events and anet increase of the number of floods(Sfax city very well illustrates this the city was flooded twicein 1969 and 1982 and despite important improvement workscarried out in 1984 and the past years it was flooded again in2009 and 2013) [47]

4 Conclusions

To conclude we may say that the climate change observedduring the last years is characterised by a rainfall return butwith a far greater intensity In Algeria the severe disturbances(which lead to a pluviometry of over 30mm24 h) are onthe rise in the last years (data ONM) This again is notconcordant with the IPCC conclusions which point out adecrease of disturbances over the Mediterranean space Atthe same time the temperature trend continues to be rising(despite a slight cooling of values recorded during the lastyears)

The variability of short-term global climate is generallyassociated with coupling phases of oceanic and atmosphericphenomena including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) While El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability in theworld the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the climatemodel dominant in the North Atlantic region The lattercyclic oscillationwhose role is still under debate could explainthe variability of rainfall in much of the Mediterranean areaand support the hypothesis of a return of the rains markingthe end of years of drought in central Maghreb

Further analysis of the response of rainfall to the NorthAtlantic Oscillation shows that drought seems more in linewith the positive indicators of high intensity demonstratinggreater strengthening of the pressure in Azores and weaken-ing of the Icelandic Low pressure Under these conditionsthe depressions are pushed towards northern latitudes whichpromotes the establishment of a dry and mild weather onthe periphery of the Mediterranean basin and North Africanregions

When the signal fades or becomes negative the pressureassociated with the Azores high is lower compared to thenormal value and at the same time the Icelandic Lowis barely formed According to this mode of traffic thedepressions corridorwithdraws further south and thus affectsthe Mediterranean regions of the south shore which will bewetter

This return of rainfall over central Maghreb should itbe confirmed could mean the end of several decades ofrecurrent droughts and announce a durable return to ldquothenormalrdquo This assumption is supported by emphasizingthe impact of different world climate oscillations (NorthAtlantic Oscillation El Nino Southern Oscillation) for allthe continents and particularly for the African continent[27 48] Do these facts announce a new climate phasewhich marks a break from past drastic conditions Suchquestion is difficult to answer today but climate data andinformation concerning the hydraulics and agriculture ofMaghreb confirm a completely unique situation in this vastarea of North Africa

Faced with such great changes that today affect theMaghreb region and given the complexity of spatial andtemporal dimensions of the climatic signal a more thoroughresearch of causes and retroactions would allow for a betterunderstanding of the mechanisms behind this new trendThese investigations should integrate and quantify the roleof terrigenous aerosols in the dynamics of local climateand show the importance of sea surface temperatures inregulating rainfall

Additional Points

Check the following websites

WMO World Meteorological Organisation httpwwwwmointpagesindex enhtmlONM Office National de la Meteorologie (Algeria)httpwwwmeteodzDirection de la Meteorologie Nationale (Morocco)httpwwwmarocmeteomaIMN Institut de la Meteorologie Nationale (Tunisia)httpwwwmeteotndefaulthtmlNCDC National Climatic Data Center httpwwwncdcnoaagov

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 11

References

[1] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GIECChangements climatiques en 2013 Les elements scientifiquesresume a lrsquointention des decideurs service drsquoappui techniquedu groupe de travail I GTI 2013 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar5wg1WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINALFRENCHpdf

[2] NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis for Annual 2014 2015 httpwwwncdcnoaagovsotcglobal201413

[3] WMO (Wolrd Meteorological Organization) ldquoHotter drierwetter Face the futurerdquo Bulletin vol 65 no 1 p 64 2016

[4] Wolrd Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statement on theStatus of Global Climate in 2012 2013

[5] M H I Dore ldquoClimate change and changes in global precipi-tation patterns what do we knowrdquo Environment Internationalvol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[6] L V Alexander X Zhang T C Peterson et al ldquoGlobal observedchanges in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipita-tionrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 111 no5 Article ID D05109 pp 1ndash22 2006

[7] M New M Todd M Hulme and P Jones ldquoPrecipitation mea-surements and trends in the twentieth centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 21 no 15 pp 1899ndash1922 2001

[8] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 2007 The PhysicalSciences Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds chapter11 pp 847ndash940 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK2007 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg1ar4-wg1-chapter11pdf

[9] S Planton M Deque H Douville and B Spagnoli ldquoImpact durechauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologiquerdquo ComptesRendus Geoscience vol 337 no 1 pp 193ndash202 2005

[10] F Giorgi ldquoClimate change hot-spotsrdquoGeophysical Research Let-ters vol 33 no 8 2006

[11] F Giorgi and P Lionello ldquoClimate change projections for theMediterranean regionrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 63no 2-3 pp 90ndash104 2008

[12] Blue Plan Environment and development in MediterraneanClimate change in the Mediterranean no 9 pp 4 2008

[13] E Xoplakie Climate variability over the mediterranean [PhDthesis] University of Bern Bern Switzerland 2002

[14] P Lionello J Bhend A Buzzi et al ldquoCyclones in the Mediter-ranean region climatology and effects on the environmentrdquoinMediterranean Climate Variability P Lionello P Malanotte-Rizzoli and R Abd Boscolo Eds pp 324ndash372 ElsevierAmsterdam The Netherlands 2006

[15] F Jin A Kitoh and P Alpert ldquoWater cycle changes over theMediterranean a comparison study of a super-high-resolutionglobal model with CMIP3rdquo Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sci-ences vol 368 no 1931 pp 5137ndash5149 2010

[16] C C Raible B Ziv H Saaroni andMWild ldquoWinter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under futureclimate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5rdquo ClimateDynamics vol 35 no 2-3 pp 473ndash488 2010

[17] S O Krichak J S Breitgand R Samuels and P Alpert ldquoAdouble-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation

experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the EasternMediterranean regionrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatologyvol 103 no 1 pp 167ndash195 2011

[18] C M Philandras P T Nastos J Kapsomenakis K C DouvisG Tselioudis andC S Zerefos ldquoLong termprecipitation trendsand variability within the Mediterranean regionrdquo Natural Haz-ards and Earth System Sciences vol 11 no 12 pp 3235ndash32502011

[19] M Giannakopoulos M Bindi M Moriondo and T TinldquoClimate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a2∘C global temperature riserdquo A Report for WWF httpwwwfaoorgfileadminuser uploadrome2007docsClimate ChangeAdaptation Water Sector NENApdf

[20] G Tselioudis C Zerefos P Zanis P Repapis and I Kape-spmenakis ldquoFuture trends in Mediterranean precipitation andpossible connections with the phase pf the North AtlanticOscillationrdquo in Proceedings of the 9th Conference of MeteorologyClimatology andAtmospheric Physics pp 513ndash520ThessalonikiGreece May 2008

[21] M Dubrovsky M Hayes P Duce M Trnka M Svoboda andP Zara ldquoMulti-GCM projections of future drought and climatevariability indicators for the Mediterranean regionrdquo RegionalEnvironmental Change vol 14 no 5 pp 1907ndash1919 2014

[22] P Alpert T Ben-Gai A Baharad et al ldquoThe paradoxicalincrease of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofdecrease in total valuesrdquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 29no 11 pp 1ndash31 2002

[23] WMO (WolrdMeteorological Organization) ldquoStatement on thestatus of global climate in 2012rdquo Tech Rep 1108 2013

[24] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangements clima-tiques au Maghreb vers des conditions plus humides et pluschaudes sur le littoral algerien rdquo Physio-Geo vol 7 pp 307ndash3232013

[25] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumidesrdquo in dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et Ses Marges Actesdu XXVII Colloque International de Climatologie pp 399ndash405Dijon France 2014

[26] M G Donat T C Peterson M Brunet et al ldquoChanges inextreme temperature and precipitation in theArab region long-term trends and variability related to ENSO andNAOrdquo Interna-tional Journal of Climatology vol 34 no 3 pp 581ndash592 2014

[27] A Sebbar W Badri H Fougrach M Hsain and A SalouildquoEtude de la variabilite du regime pluviometrique au Marocseptentrional (1935ndash2004)rdquo Secheresse vol 22 no 3 pp 139ndash148 2011

[28] Z Nouaceur ldquoEvaluation des changements climatiques auMaghreb Etude du cas des regions du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du 23rd Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie lsquoRisques et Changements Clima-tiquesrsquo pp 463ndash468 Rennes France 2010

[29] M Amyay Z Nouaceur A Tribak Kh Okba and A TaousldquoCaracterisation des evenements pluviometriques extremesdans le Moyen Atlas marocain et ses margesrdquo in Actes duXXV eme Colloque International de Climatologie pp 75ndash80Grenoble France 2012

[30] K Khomsi G Mahe Y Tramblay M Sinan and M SnoussildquoTrends in rainfall and temperature extremes in MoroccordquoNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions vol 3no 2 pp 1175ndash1201 2015

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 11

References

[1] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) GIECChangements climatiques en 2013 Les elements scientifiquesresume a lrsquointention des decideurs service drsquoappui techniquedu groupe de travail I GTI 2013 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar5wg1WG1AR5 SummaryVolume FINALFRENCHpdf

[2] NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the ClimateGlobal Analysis for Annual 2014 2015 httpwwwncdcnoaagovsotcglobal201413

[3] WMO (Wolrd Meteorological Organization) ldquoHotter drierwetter Face the futurerdquo Bulletin vol 65 no 1 p 64 2016

[4] Wolrd Meteorological Organization (WMO) Statement on theStatus of Global Climate in 2012 2013

[5] M H I Dore ldquoClimate change and changes in global precipi-tation patterns what do we knowrdquo Environment Internationalvol 31 no 8 pp 1167ndash1181 2005

[6] L V Alexander X Zhang T C Peterson et al ldquoGlobal observedchanges in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipita-tionrdquo Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 111 no5 Article ID D05109 pp 1ndash22 2006

[7] M New M Todd M Hulme and P Jones ldquoPrecipitation mea-surements and trends in the twentieth centuryrdquo InternationalJournal of Climatology vol 21 no 15 pp 1899ndash1922 2001

[8] J H Christensen B Hewitson A Busuioc et al ldquoRegionalclimate projectionsrdquo in Climate Change 2007 The PhysicalSciences Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange S Solomon D Qin M Manning et al Eds chapter11 pp 847ndash940 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK2007 httpswwwipccchpdfassessment-reportar4wg1ar4-wg1-chapter11pdf

[9] S Planton M Deque H Douville and B Spagnoli ldquoImpact durechauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologiquerdquo ComptesRendus Geoscience vol 337 no 1 pp 193ndash202 2005

[10] F Giorgi ldquoClimate change hot-spotsrdquoGeophysical Research Let-ters vol 33 no 8 2006

[11] F Giorgi and P Lionello ldquoClimate change projections for theMediterranean regionrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 63no 2-3 pp 90ndash104 2008

[12] Blue Plan Environment and development in MediterraneanClimate change in the Mediterranean no 9 pp 4 2008

[13] E Xoplakie Climate variability over the mediterranean [PhDthesis] University of Bern Bern Switzerland 2002

[14] P Lionello J Bhend A Buzzi et al ldquoCyclones in the Mediter-ranean region climatology and effects on the environmentrdquoinMediterranean Climate Variability P Lionello P Malanotte-Rizzoli and R Abd Boscolo Eds pp 324ndash372 ElsevierAmsterdam The Netherlands 2006

[15] F Jin A Kitoh and P Alpert ldquoWater cycle changes over theMediterranean a comparison study of a super-high-resolutionglobal model with CMIP3rdquo Philosophical Transactions of theRoyal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sci-ences vol 368 no 1931 pp 5137ndash5149 2010

[16] C C Raible B Ziv H Saaroni andMWild ldquoWinter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under futureclimate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5rdquo ClimateDynamics vol 35 no 2-3 pp 473ndash488 2010

[17] S O Krichak J S Breitgand R Samuels and P Alpert ldquoAdouble-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation

experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the EasternMediterranean regionrdquo Theoretical and Applied Climatologyvol 103 no 1 pp 167ndash195 2011

[18] C M Philandras P T Nastos J Kapsomenakis K C DouvisG Tselioudis andC S Zerefos ldquoLong termprecipitation trendsand variability within the Mediterranean regionrdquo Natural Haz-ards and Earth System Sciences vol 11 no 12 pp 3235ndash32502011

[19] M Giannakopoulos M Bindi M Moriondo and T TinldquoClimate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a2∘C global temperature riserdquo A Report for WWF httpwwwfaoorgfileadminuser uploadrome2007docsClimate ChangeAdaptation Water Sector NENApdf

[20] G Tselioudis C Zerefos P Zanis P Repapis and I Kape-spmenakis ldquoFuture trends in Mediterranean precipitation andpossible connections with the phase pf the North AtlanticOscillationrdquo in Proceedings of the 9th Conference of MeteorologyClimatology andAtmospheric Physics pp 513ndash520ThessalonikiGreece May 2008

[21] M Dubrovsky M Hayes P Duce M Trnka M Svoboda andP Zara ldquoMulti-GCM projections of future drought and climatevariability indicators for the Mediterranean regionrdquo RegionalEnvironmental Change vol 14 no 5 pp 1907ndash1919 2014

[22] P Alpert T Ben-Gai A Baharad et al ldquoThe paradoxicalincrease of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite ofdecrease in total valuesrdquo Geophysical Research Letters vol 29no 11 pp 1ndash31 2002

[23] WMO (WolrdMeteorological Organization) ldquoStatement on thestatus of global climate in 2012rdquo Tech Rep 1108 2013

[24] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangements clima-tiques au Maghreb vers des conditions plus humides et pluschaudes sur le littoral algerien rdquo Physio-Geo vol 7 pp 307ndash3232013

[25] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumidesrdquo in dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et Ses Marges Actesdu XXVII Colloque International de Climatologie pp 399ndash405Dijon France 2014

[26] M G Donat T C Peterson M Brunet et al ldquoChanges inextreme temperature and precipitation in theArab region long-term trends and variability related to ENSO andNAOrdquo Interna-tional Journal of Climatology vol 34 no 3 pp 581ndash592 2014

[27] A Sebbar W Badri H Fougrach M Hsain and A SalouildquoEtude de la variabilite du regime pluviometrique au Marocseptentrional (1935ndash2004)rdquo Secheresse vol 22 no 3 pp 139ndash148 2011

[28] Z Nouaceur ldquoEvaluation des changements climatiques auMaghreb Etude du cas des regions du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du 23rd Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie lsquoRisques et Changements Clima-tiquesrsquo pp 463ndash468 Rennes France 2010

[29] M Amyay Z Nouaceur A Tribak Kh Okba and A TaousldquoCaracterisation des evenements pluviometriques extremesdans le Moyen Atlas marocain et ses margesrdquo in Actes duXXV eme Colloque International de Climatologie pp 75ndash80Grenoble France 2012

[30] K Khomsi G Mahe Y Tramblay M Sinan and M SnoussildquoTrends in rainfall and temperature extremes in MoroccordquoNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions vol 3no 2 pp 1175ndash1201 2015

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

12 International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

[31] M Kortli Changement climatique eau et sante en Tunisie[Memoire de Master] Institut National Agronomique deTunisie INRGREF Tunis 2012

[32] B Laignel Z Nouaceur H Jemai H Abida M Ellouze andI Turki ldquoVers un retour des pluies dans le nord-est tunisienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIIe Colloque de lrsquoAssociationInternationale de Climatologie-2 au 5 Juillet 2014 pp 727ndash732Dijon France 2014

[33] N Fehri ldquoLrsquoaggravation du risque drsquoinondation en Tunisieelements de reflexionrdquo Physio-Geo vol 8 pp 149ndash175 2014

[34] L Henia and Z Hlaoui ldquoLa pluviometrie dans les plaines etbassins intratelliens en Tunisie evolution recente et projectiondans le futurrdquo in Climat Montagnard et Risques Actes duXXIVeme Colloque de lrsquoAIC (Rovereto) M Fazzini and GBeltrando Eds pp 303ndash308 AIC et Universite de Ferrare 2011

[35] S Jebari R R Berndtsson F Lebdi and A Akissa BahrildquoSediment discharge and precipitation variation in the wadiMellegue catchment during the 50 past years Actes desdixiemes Journees Scientifiques de lrsquoINRGREF Hammamet 21-22 novembre 2007 Exploitation des ressources en eau pentruune agriculture durablerdquoAnnales de lrsquoINRGREF vol 11 pp 116ndash122 2008

[36] C Norrant Tendances pluviometriques indicatrices drsquoun change-ment climatique dans le bassin mediterraneen de 1950 a 2000Etude diagnostique [PhD thesis] Universite Aix Marseille IUniversite de Provence Marseille France 2004

[37] C Norrant-Romand and A Douguedroit ldquoSignificant rainfalldecreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in theMediterranean (1950ndash2000)rdquo Regional Environmental Changevol 14 no 5 pp 1725ndash1741 2014

[38] E Morin ldquoTo know what we cannot know global mappingof minimal detectable absolute trends in annual precipitationrdquoWater Resources Research vol 47 no 7 Article IDW07505 2011

[39] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueen Afrique du Nord vers des conditions plus chaudes et plushumides dans le Moyen Atlas Marocain et ses margesrdquo inProceedings of the Actes du XXVII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 399ndash405 Dijon France 2014

[40] Z Nouaceur B Laignel and I Turki ldquoChangement climatiqueau Sahel des conditions plus chaudes et plus humides enMauritanierdquo Secheresse vol 24 pp 85ndash95 2013

[41] Z Nouaceur and B Laignel ldquoCaracterisation des evenementspluviometriques extremes sur la rive Sud du bassinmediterraneen etude du cas du quart nord-est algerienrdquoin Proceedings of the Actes du XXVIII Colloque International deClimatologie pp 573ndash578 Liege Belgium 2015

[42] Ministry of Energy Mines Water and Environment Ministerede lrsquoEnergie des Mines de lrsquoEau et de lrsquoApprovisionnement2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 201-2013 Situationdes ressources en eau et du remplissage des barrages durantlrsquoannee hydrologique Direction de la Recherche et de la Plan-ification de lrsquoeau 9 p (Maroc Morocco) httpwwwmemgovma

[43] R Thierry Au fond de la khettara Lahloua Le journal delrsquoIRD IRD Institut de recherche pour le developpementjuinjuilletaout no 40 pp 16 2007

[44] M El Faiz and T Ruf ldquoAn introduction to the khettara inmorocco two contrasting casesrdquo in Proceedings of the 1stWATARID International Conference on Water Ecosystemsand Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas(WATARID rsquo06) G Schneier-Madanes and M-F Courel Edspp 151ndash163 Springer Urumqi China October 2006

[45] Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ldquoLesreseaux drsquoeau anciens ressuscitent en Mediterraneerdquo ActualiteScientifique 370 2011

[46] M Mahdane S Lanau Th Ruf and M-J Valony Gouver-nance drsquoune oasis dont lrsquoeau provient quasi exclusivement delrsquoexploitation traditionnelle des galeries drainantes les khet-taras le cas de SKOURA auMaroc Atelier international a Tunis4ndash6 Novembre 2010

[47] A Daoud ldquoRetour drsquoexperience sur les inondations danslrsquoagglomeration de Sfax (Tunisie meridionale) de 1982 a 2009de la prevention a la territorialisation du risquerdquo RevueGeographique de lrsquoEst vol 53 no 1-2 pp 1ndash14 2013

[48] J I Lopez-Moreno S M Vicente-Serrano E Moran-Tejeda JLorenzo-Lacruz A Kenawy and M Beniston ldquoEffects ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on combined temper-ature and precipitation winter modes in the Mediterraneanmountains observed relationships and projections for the 21stcenturyrdquo Global and Planetary Change vol 77 no 1-2 pp 62ndash76 2011

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in