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Research for a World in Transition
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Director, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Centennial Professor of Operational Research, LSE
ETH ZuerichNovember 30, 2009
IIASA: A Global Research Institute
InternationalInternationalIndependentInterdisciplinaryIntegratedIntegrated ___________________Systems Analysis
IIASA Statistics
150 Researchers (100 FTEs)100 th t ff b100 other staff membersEUR 16.4 million budget50/50 membership fees and external funds17 national members17 national members50% of world population
Contents
1. Global Challenges: 19722. IIASA’s early days3 Global Challenges: 20103. Global Challenges: 20104. IIASA’s New Strategy
Climate change research at IIASAClimate change research at IIASA
World Population: 6.8 bn (2009) Projected 9.1 bn (2050)
Global ChallengesGlobal Challenges1.02 billion people are 25,000 children die
undernourished worldwide in 2009
each day due to poverty (UNICEF)
(FAO) 80% of humanity lives 1.1 billion people have y
on less than $10 a day (World Bank)
1.1 billion people have inadequate access to water (UNHDP) y ( )to water (UNHDP)
1.6 billion people are ith t t
Average temperatures without access to electricity
predicted to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100 (IPCC)
R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World
Food andFood and Water
Poverty and
Equity
Energy and
Climate EquityChange
R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World
Food andFood and Water
Poverty and
Equity
Energy and
Climate EquityChange
R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World
Food and WaterWater
P tEnergy Poverty and
Equity
Energy and
Climate Change q yChange
Poverty and Equity
1,000 Billionaires10 000 000 Milli i10,000,000 Millionaires
1,000,000,000 live on less than $1/day
R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World
Food and WaterWater
Energy Poverty and
Equity
Energy and
Climate ChangeC a ge
Current greehouse gasemission trends
Costs of current and futuregreenhouse gas reductions
Comparisons usingdifferent metrics
E i f Cli t ChEconomics of Climate Change
“ Thank you IIASA for your invaluable help during the p gpreparation of my review of the Economics of Climate Change I value IIASA'sChange. I value IIASA s work highly and know it is taken seriously at the highest levels of government in nations around the world.”
Lord Nicholas Stern
R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World
Food and Water
Poverty d
Energy and and
Equityand
Climate Change
R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World
Food and Water
Poverty d
Energy and and
Equityand
Climate Change
Systems Analysis at IIASA
Problem driven and solution orientedIntegrated: Systems linkages andIntegrated: Systems linkages and
dynamic interactionsI t ti l d i t di i liInternational and interdisciplinaryScience basedScience based
P bl D i d S l ti O i t dP bl D i d S l ti O i t dProblem Driven and Solution Oriented: Problem Driven and Solution Oriented: Energy and Food Land ConflictsEnergy and Food Land Conflicts
Interdisciplinary and InternationalInterdisciplinary and International
40+ countries 40+ countries
150 scientists
50 YSSP annually
15 Postdocs 15 Postdocs
R h f Ch i W ldResearch for a Changing World
Food and Water
Poverty d
Energy and and
Equityand
Climate Change
Increasing Policy Relevance
Linking global research to national policy dagendas
Establishing policy dialogues and g p y grelationshipsCollaborating with local policy andCollaborating with local policy and
scientific institutions
Young Scientists Summer Program
"By bringing the world’s y g gmost promising young scientists to spend the summer at IIASAsummer at IIASA, the institute ensures the next generation of scientists is even better equipped to solve the world’s problems ”the world s problems.
Thomas Schelling, Nobel Prize for Economics in 2005