research for future meteorological services and response · by a csiro researcher located at their...
TRANSCRIPT
1
MaintainandimprovecapacityformeteorologicalresearchandservicestoAustralians
ThecutstoCSIROclimatescienceamounttomuchmorethanalossofclimatechangeresearchcapability.Theyarealossofcapabilityinthestudyofdroughts,ElNiño,tropicalcyclonesfireweatherandstormsurges,andwillhaveimpactsonhealth,agriculture,theeconomy,safety,andthesurroundingoceansandreefs.ByMaryVoice,JohnMcBrideandJeffKingwell,representingtheNationalCounciloftheAustralianMeteorologicalandOceanographicSociety(AMOS) InOctober2013theelectronicbillboardabovetheAgenewspaperofficeinCollinsStshowedafigurefromascientificpaper.ThepaperhadappearedinthelatestissueofthesciencejournalNature,andwas
writtenbyBureauofMeteorologyandCSIROclimatescientists.ThetopicwashowtheElNiñophenomenonwillchangeastheglobewarms.ElNiñooftenbringswidespreaddroughttoAustraliaaswellasbringingsummerswithextremebushfires.ThearticleinNaturewasinvestigatingwhetherthiswillbethesameincomingdecadeswhentheglobaloceansarewarmerthanatpresent.
TheAustralianMeteorologicalandOceanographicSociety(AMOS)isanindependentsocietyrepresentingtheatmosphericandoceanographicsciencesinAustralia.IthasmembersdrawnfromtheBureauofMeteorology,CSIRO,theuniversitysector,otherStateandFederalagencies,aswellastheprivatesector.
TheSocietycoversbothmeteorologyandoceanography,notingthat:•‘meteorology’initsbroadestsenseincludesthesciencesofweather,climateandatmosphericcomposition;and•scientificstudyof‘climate’requiresintegratedstudyofatmosphere,ocean,land,cryosphereandbiosphere.
2
Thescientistsaskingthesequestionsarenotspecialistsinclimatechangescience.RathertheyareexpertsinthestudyoftheElNiñophenomenon,andofwhyitoccursandhowtopredictitseveralmonthsinadvanceusingobservations,usingtheoryandusinglargecoupledcomputermodelsoftheatmosphereandtheocean.InfacttheCSIROdivisionsthataretargetedforthecurrentlargereductionsinstaffdon’treallyincludespecialist"climate-change"scientists.TherearenouniversitydepartmentswhereonecangainaPhDdegreeorotherqualificationasaclimate-changescientist.Ifaskedtheirprofession,theywouldreplyresearchscientistinatmosphericscience,orinmeteorology,orinatmosphericchemistry,orinairpollution,orinextremeweathereventssuchasthunderstormandfireweather,orinclimate.ThesearethespecialtyareasinwhichtheCSIROscientistsdidtheiruniversitydegreesandtheirlateron-the-jobtraining.WhataretheconsequencesofreducingthenumberofscientistsworkinginCSIROOceansandAtmosphere,bringingaboutalargereductioninthenumberofatmosphericandoceanographicscientistsworkingacrossAustralia?Theansweristhatthenationlosescapabilityinthestudyoftropicalcyclones,ANDoftheweatherconditionsleadingtoextremefiredisastersANDinthemeteorologyoffloods,ANDinstormsurgeevents,ANDintherelationshipbetweenElNiñoandAustralianrainfall,ANDindroughts,ANDinairpollution,ANDinglobalsealevelrise.CSIROresearchershavealongtraditioninstudyingthesephenomenon.TheSouthernOscillationIndexorSOInowusedtomonitorElNiñoactivityandtoforecastseasonalvariationsinrainfall,intropicalcyclonesandinAustralianwheatyield,wasdevelopedbyaCSIROresearcherlocatedattheirAspendalelaboratories,backinthe1960's.Australianshavealwayslivedinalandofweatherandclimatevariations,alandof"droughtsandfloodingrains",andwehavebeenservedbyacommunityofdedicatedscientistsdoingpublicgoodresearchwhostudythesephenomena.Asinternationalscienceinmeteorologyandoceanographyprogressesalongwithallsciences,itisimportantthatweretainourscientificcapability,andthatwehaveexpertsatthecuttingedgeofknowledgeofthescience.Andyes,therearestillmanyquestionsabouthowthesephenomenawillbeaffectedbythechangingclimate.Inthepast50yearsrainfallhasincreasedinNorth-westernAustralia,butdecreasedinSouthernandeasternAustralia.Arethesechangespermanentandaresultofanthropogenicclimatechange,oraretheyexamplesofmultidecadalvariationsinrainfallsuchashaveoccurredoverpastcenturiesintheabsenceofanthropogenicclimatechange?WillthenumberoftropicalcyclonesaffectingAustraliaincreaseordecrease?Willdroughtsbecomemoresevere?ClearlyitisimportantthatAustraliaretainascientificcapabilityinthestudyofthecausesoflong-termvariationsinrainfall,andinthemechanismsgoverningtheannualnumberoftropicalcyclones,andinthecausesandseverityofdrought.
3
Modernearly-warningsystemsandextremeweatheralertsarepossibleonlybecauseofthatlong-termresearch.Fewofusrealisetheenormousdifferencetheyhavemadetolossoflifeandproperty.WhendidyoulasthearofmanyliveslostfromanAustraliantropicalcycloneorashipwreckontheAustraliancoast?Andyetbotheventswerecommoninthepast.Insummary,theverylargereductioncurrentlyinprocess–over140researchspecialists-wouldmeanalossofcapabilityinatmosphericandoceanographicsciencethatextendsfarbeyondthestudyofclimatechange.Itisalossofcapabilityinmeasuring,observing,understanding,modellingandforecastingtheweatherandclimatephenomenathatgovernbothlifeandsafety,aswellastheeconomyofournation.Itrepresentsalossthatthenationcannotafford.AMOSstrivestobecompletelypoliticallyneutral,buthasaroleasacredible,independentvoicefortheprofession.Thisisanopenletterandrequesttoallmajorpoliticalparties.AMOSrequestsallcurrentandforthcomingmembersofFederalParliamenttoconsiderwhatisneededtobuildaresilienteconomyinthefaceofthechallengesofsevereweather,ahighlyvariableclimate,andthelikelyimpactsofclimatechange.Australiacriticallyneedsastableongoinginfrastructureforatmosphericandoceanographicmonitoring,modelling,datamanagementandprediction.AMOSurgesallpartiestocommittoastablestaffingandresourcingstructure(combinedwiththecapacityforflexibility,innovationandthecontinuationofworld-classexpertise).
ByMaryVoice,JohnMcBrideandJeffKingwell,representingtheNationalCounciloftheAustralianMeteorologicalandOceanographicSociety(AMOS)------------Photocredit:JohnMcBride.
AMOSsupportsthenationalendeavourofpureandappliedscientificresearchaswellasmeteorologicalandoceanographicservicestotheAustraliancommunity.Theseprogramsandservicesshouldinclude:effectivemonitoringanddatacollection,effectivearchivinganddatamanagement,qualityandrelevantresearch,supporttoourinternationalobligations,andabilitytocontinueconvertingresearchintoservicesfortheAustraliancommunity(includinginairquality,weatherandseasonalforecasting,andnewlonger-termforecastingwherepossible).
4
ResponsereceivedfromCSIROFrom: [email protected] [[email protected]] Sent: Tuesday, June 21, 2016 8:37 AM To: Mary Voice Subject: RE: Meteorological research for Australia and the resulting services to Australians.
DearDrVoiceandAMOScolleagues, DrLarryMarshallhasreferredyouremailtomeastheExecutiveDirectorresponsibleforourenvironment,energyandresourceswork. ThankyouforyoursupportofCSIRO.Asyounote,CSIROisproudofthecontributionwehavemadetoclimatescience,acontributionwhichisacknowledgedinternationally. OurongoingcommitmenttoclimateresearchisshownintheannouncementofthenewClimateScienceCentre(seelink).TheCentrewillbebasedinHobartandwillfocusonclimatemodellingandprojectionsforAustralia,underpinnedbyoceansandatmosphericobservations,anddrawingonbothnationalandinternationalresearchexpertise.Itwillhaveaguaranteedresearchcapabilityfor10yearswiththefoundationoftheCentrebeingtheequivalentofatleast40fulltimeCSIROscientists.TheClimateScienceCentreprovidesagreatopportunitytoprovidealong-termfoundationforclimatemonitoring,modelling,adaptationandmitigation,anditwillalsoservetoreassureourpartnersandcollaboratorsthatweareinclimatescienceforthelonghaul. ItisworthnotingthatthelossofCSIROcapabilityintheclimateareaisoftheorderof40staff,not140asyoustate.CSIROOceansandAtmospherewillcontinuetoemployaround100scientistsfromthetworesearchprogramsthatcurrentlyfocusonclimatespecificresearch.Furthermore,thisisnotallofCSIRO’sclimateresearchexpertise,andalthoughwearereducingsomeofthecapabilitiesmentionedinyourletter,wewillretaincapabilitytoaddressmostoralloftheimportantscientificquestionsyouraise.CSIROwillalsocontinuetoworkcloselywithkeypartnerssuchastheBureauofMeteorologyanduniversitiesthroughthenewClimateScienceCentretoaddresstheclimatequestionsofmostimportancetoAustraliaandtheregion. ThanksagainforyoursupportofCSIRO. Bestregards, Alex ________________________________________________________DrAlexWonhasExecutiveDirectorEnvironment,EnergyandResourcesCSIRO