research methods festival oxford, 2 nd july 2008 1 longitudinal perspectives on the uk’s minority...

Research Methods FestivalOxford, 2nd July 2008

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Longitudinal perspectives on the UK’s minority

ethnic groups Lucinda Platt

ISER, University of [email protected]


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Overview

• Why are longitudinal perspectives important in ethnicity research?

• Challenges for research• Data opportunities• Some examples

– Intergenerational social mobility– Benefit dynamics– Worklessness transitions

• Issues and future plans and possibilities


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Why are longitudinal perspectives important?

• help us to understand about group processes and profiles and trajectories

• ‘ethnic’ dimension to longitudinal research and developments in research (e.g. understanding poverty dynamics, extent of poverty persistence, social mobility and intergenerational transmission)

• informative not only about group but also potential to illuminate (and complicate) our understanding of wider social processes


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Challenges for research

• Meaning and coherence of groups• Diversity between groups• Small sample sizes in many data

sets• Pooling possible for some cross-

sectional studies but not longitudinal (except short panel in LFS)


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Data opportunities

• ONS Longitudinal Study• Administrative data: e.g. benefits; PLASC

– and linkage?

• Short panel in LFS• Millennium Cohort Study• LSYPE

• For the future: Understanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study


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Measuring ethnicity

• Ethnic group – census categories, or variants

• (Country of birth)• (Parents’ country of birth)• (Religion)• [Language]• [National identity]• [‘Britishness’] • [Citizenship]


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Examples

1. Intergenerational social mobility2. Benefit dynamics3. Workless household transitions4. Low income transitions


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Example 1: Intergenerational social mobility

• Using the ONS Longitudinal Study• Social mobility informative about

– different dimensions of stratification / meritocracy

– evaluating expectations of class and educational processes – do they apply across groups?

– does background help to explain differences between groups?

– if not, what are the implications of lack of class influence?


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Data: The Longitudinal Study

The ONS Longitudinal Study (LS) contains linked census and vital event data for 1 per cent of the population of England and Wales. Information from the 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses has been linked across censuses as well as information on events such as births, deaths and cancer registrations.

The original LS sample included 1971 Census information for people born on one of four selected dates in a calendar year. These four dates were used to update the sample at the 1981, 1991 and 2001 censuses and to add new members between censuses.

New LS members enter the study through birth and immigration. Data are not usually linked to a member after their death or after de-registration from the NHS Central Register but these members' records remain available for analysis.

Census information is also included for all people enumerated in the same household as an LS member, but only information on LS members is linked over time.


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Ethnicity and social mobilityWithout own

education With own education

Caribbean .306 (.076)*** -.037 (.081)

Black African .469 (.246)* -.001 (.268)

Indian .460 (.068)*** .105 (.069)

Pakistani -.525 (.103)*** -.792 (.111)***

Bangladeshi -.274 (.245) -.465 (.237)*

Chinese and other .491 (.106)*** .078 (.109)

White migrant .318 (.044)*** .142 (.047)**

Sample member’s qualifications (base is 0)

Lower (level 1) 1.013 (.027)***

Middle (level 2) 1.466 (.027)***

Further (level 3+) 2.765 (.028)***

Source: ONS Longitudinal

Study,adapted from Platt (2007)


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Ethnicity and classEthnic group – origin class (base is white non-migrant –working class)

Without own education

With own education

White NM - service .559 (.018)*** .341 (.020)***

Caribbean - service .258 (.188) -.120 (.199)

Caribbean - working

.410 (.088)*** .128 (.095)

Indian - service 1.00 (.189)*** .486 (.175)**

Indian working .451 (.080)*** .113 (.081)

Pakistani service .151 (.403) -.511 (.369)

Pakistani working -.461 (.124)***

-.654 (.135)***

White migrant service

.674 (.106)*** .205 (.114)

White migrant working

.361(.056)*** .166(.059)**

Source: ONS Longitudinal Study,adapted from Platt (2007)


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Interacting education & ethnicity (1)

white non-migrant

-- with interaction

Caribbean

-- with interaction

Indian

-- with interaction

Pakistani

-- with interaction

white migrant

-- with interaction

Eth

nic

Gro

up

.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6

Predicted probability prof/man class



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Interacting education & ethnicity (2)

white non-migrant

-- with interaction

Caribbean

-- with interaction

Indian

-- with interaction

Pakistani

-- with interaction

white migrant

-- with interaction

Eth

nic

Gro

up

.5 .6 .7 .8 .9

Predicted probability prof/man class



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Example 2: Benefit dynamics in Birmingham

• Using Housing Benefit / Council Tax Benefit data

• 7 quarterly extracts• Estimation of exit and re-entry probabilities

using discrete time models, among children in HB/CTB recipient families– Controlling for age, income support receipt,

mother’s age, housing tenure, number of siblings, family structure

– For exits: c.114,000 person-spells and c.18,000 exits (inflowers only)

– For re-entries: c.140,000 person spells; and c.33,000 re-entries (outflowers)


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Benefit exit in BirminghamEthnic

group (baseline = white UK)

Coefficient (SE)

Hazard ratio (SE)

P-value

Bangladeshi

-.18 (.08) .84 (.07) .034

Black Caribbean

.17 (.06) 1.18 (.07) .007

Indian -.04 (.08) .96 (.08) .612

Pakistani -.02 (.05) .98 (.05) .655

Source: BCC HB/CTB data; adapted from Platt (2006)


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Benefit re-entry in Birmingham

Ethnic group (baseline = white UK)

Coefficient (SE)

Hazard ratio (SE)

P-value

Bangladeshi

.40 (.05) 1.49 (.08) .000

Black Caribbean

.06 (.04) 1.06 (.04) .150

Indian .17 (.05) 1.19 (.06) .001

Pakistani

.30 (.03) 1.35 (.04) .000

Source: BCC HB/CTB data; adapted from Platt (2006)


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Example 3: children’s experience of workless

household over time• Using ONS Longitudinal Study• two extracts from the ONS Longitudinal Study:

– children aged 0-5 in 1981 who are also observed in 1991 (n=33230); – children aged 0-5 in 1991 who are also observed in 2001 (n=37167)

• Worklessness: households, no work.• Family/ household controls: whether UK born; whether mother

and or father UK born; whether parents present; number of siblings; whether sibling aged under 5; change in number of siblings; change in parental marital status; whether moved; distance moved; number of cars in household; housing tenure; change in housing tenure; parents’ highest qualification; age; mother’s age.

• Area controls: % of ward unemployed; change in unemployment; % of ward from own ethnic group; % of ward from parent’s country of birth; change in percentage from own ethnic group; change in percentage from parent’s country of birth; proportion white British; change in proportion white British.


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Transition patterns: all groups, both cohorts

Cohort 1 (81/91) % (n)

Cohort 2 (91/01) % (n)

Move out 8.1 (2676) 11.9 (4396)

Move in 8.2 (2729) 8.0 (2917)

Stay out 78 (25921) 69.3 (26612)

Stay in 5.7 (1904) 10.8 (3242)

ONS Longitudinal Study, own

analysis


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And by ethnic group, 1991 cohort…

White

British

White andBlack

Caribbean

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Black

Caribbean

Black

African

Chinese

%

Stay in

Stay out

Move in

Move out


analysis


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Exit at 2001 for 1991 cohort

Ethnic group (selection): base= white British

Simple model

With controls on characteristics

With area controls

White other -ve -ve -veWhite and Black Caribbean

ns ns ns

Indian +ve ns nsPakistani -ve -ve nsBangladeshi -ve ns nsBlack Caribbean

ns ns ns

Black African ns ns ns


analysis


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Entry at 2001 for 1991 cohortEthnic group

(selection): base= white British

Simple model

With controls on characteristics

With area controls

White other ns +ve (+ve)White and Black Caribbean

+ve ns ns

Indian ns ns nsPakistani +ve +ve +veBangladeshi +ve +ve nsBlack Caribbean

+ve ns (-ve)

Black African +ve ns ns


analysis


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Example 4: Low income transitions

• Using the MCS, waves 1 and 2– Measure of poverty has been constructed

(below 60% of median equivalised income)

– Allows mapping of poverty transitions– But missing data on income at both

waves and attrition mean that transitions only observed for 63% of wave1 sample

– Ethnic group based on that of mother


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Overall Income: W1 x W20

500

1000

1500

050

010

0015

00

0 500 1000 1500 0 500 1000 1500 0 500 1000 1500

mixed indian pakistani

bangladeshi black caribbean black african

wa

ve 2

equ

iva

lent

inco

me

wave 1 equivalent incomeSample sizes: 100; 247; 385; 111; 129; 166

Source: MCS Wave1 and Wave 2


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Income transitions: families with young children (and

CIs)Ethnic group

Not poor in both waves

Not poor w1, poor w2 (entries)

Poor w1, not poor

w2 (exits)

Poor in both

waves

White 70 (68-72)

8 (7-8) 7 (7-8) 15 (14-16)

Mixed 42 (30-55)

21 (13-34) 9 (4-16) 28 (20-38)

Indian 69 (59-77)

12 (7-19) 9 (5-15) 11 (7-17)

Pakistani 24 (17-32)

18 (13-23) 10 (7-14) 48 (39-57)

Bangladeshi

20 (9-38) 15 (8-25) 13 (8-21) 52 (39-65)

Caribbean 47 (35-60)

14 (9-21) 10 (5-18) 29 (20-40)

Black African

53 (36-70)

8 (3-17) 8 (4-13) 31 (21-44)

Source: MCS Wave1 and Wave 2


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What do we learn (returning to original motivation)

• Longitudinal processes are not common across groups (once we control for starting points)

• Current disadvantage is not just about wider social structures and backgrounds – where people start off

• Absolute disadvantage for some groups can be associated with family characteristics, but less so for others (‘unexplained’ component)

• Different stories across ethnic groups – and across measures (once relevant factors controlled). For example,– Caribbeans’ upward mobility but risks of unemployment; – Caribbean children’s faster exit from benefit; – Bangladeshi children’s slower exit from benefit and greater

probability of re-entry– Pakistani children’s lower chances of upward mobility and greater

chances of ending up in a workless household– High rates of poverty entry among Caribbean and mixed ethnicity

families with young children as well as among Pakistani children• Need for further development of frameworks of explanation and

more comprehensive understanding of trajectories and experience to account for disadvantage and diversity


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Issues• Issues of size versus content and of coverage of all ages.• Issue relating to the definition and measurement of ethnicity

and ethnic groups

– ONS LS: good sample sizes, but limited variables and only observations every 10 years. Covers entire population. England and Wales only.

– Administrative data: potentially continuous, but only information collected for administrative purposes. Potentially large sample sizes; but only covers those who come within scope (e.g. school children, benefit claimants). Coverage depends on data. HB data by local authority; PLASC covers England.

– MCS varied content; reasonable sample sizes; but only covers currently young children (and their parent(s) and sibling). UK coverage.

– LSYPE varied content; some design issues; only covers older school-age children (and their families and teachers). England only.


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Future plans (and opportunities)

• More to be done with MCS (now three waves)

• Continuing potential of ONS LS• Understanding Society: The UK

Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS)


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Understanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study

(UKHLS)Understanding Society is a multi-topic panel study of 40,000

households whose members will be followed over time, with annual interviews (in the first instance).

It includes • an ethnic minority boost, plus representation across the

survey [size]• questions of particular interest for ethnicity research

[content]– ‘ethnicity’ related questions (e.g. remittances, language use and

fluency)– Other questions of interest to researchers on ethnic group

experiences or differences (e.g. health and mental health, social networks, educational aspirations, self-employment etc.)

• UK coverage• Goes into the field in January 2009• See http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/ukhls/ for general

information on the survey; or speak to me.


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Some sources

• Platt, L. (2007) ‘Making education count: the effects of ethnicity and qualifications on intergenerational social class mobility’. The Sociological Review.

• Platt, L. (2005) Migration and Social Mobility: The Life Chances of Britain's Minority Ethnic Communities. Bristol: The Policy Press.

• Platt, L. (2006) ‘Social insecurity: children and benefit dynamics’, Journal of Social Policy, 35 (3): 391-410.

• Platt, L (2003) ‘Ethnicity and inequality: British children’s experience of means-tested benefits’, Journal of Comparative Family Studies 34 (3): 357‑377.

• And work in progress….


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Data sources and acknowledgements (1)

• The ONS Longitudinal StudyThe permission of the Office for National Statistics

to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS), in particular Julian Buxton. The above, however, bear no responsibility for the interpretation of the data.

Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen’s Printer for Scotland.


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• The Millennium Cohort StudyUniversity of London. Institute of Education. Centre for

Longitudinal Studies, Millennium Cohort Study: First Survey, 2001-2003 [computer file]. 6th Edition. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor], March 2007. SN: 4683.

University of London. Institute of Education. Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Millennium Cohort Study: Second Survey, 2003-2005 [computer file]. 3rd Edition. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor], March 2007. SN: 5350.

I am grateful to The Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education for the use of these data and to the UK Data Archive for making them available. They, however, bear no responsibility for the analysis or interpretation of these data.


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• Anonymised extracts of Housing and Council Tax Benefit records were made available to me by Birmingham City Council. I am grateful to the BCC for access to and use of these records, and for facilitating the validation of ethnic group information. The interpretation remains my responsibility.

research methods festival oxford, 2 nd july 2008 1 longitudinal perspectives on the uk’s minority...

Documents

longitudinal research

ethnicity research

research data opportunities

ons longitudinal study

lfs slide

vital event data

group processes

census information